Here's a fun one: If you drafted today, how would you rank Mahomes? (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Like the title says - Mahomes went QB1-2 in almost every one of my leagues. There was rampant optimism that the KC vertical game would be back based on offseason additions, etc. But they sure looked like the same 2023 KC Chiefs, committed to the run with Pacheco, a lot of dinks and dunks, and one big play on busted coverage.

After 1 week, Mahomes is 3rd (not counting Tua since he's had 2 games. OK, well, 1.6 games) with 291 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 1 Int. His 23 FF points in 6 pt PaTD leagues puts him at 13th (again, not including Tua).

In fact, in 2023 they actually passed more than in week 1. (60.34% vs 60%).

So where would you rank Mahomes if you were drafting today?

(yes, this is a 1 week overreaction poll exactly like all the others)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

4 people with Qb6 or later?

Wonder if he’s gonna ball out like Achane did & make folks reconsider.

 

[TheWinz]

I voted QB1, and still think he is going for 5K and 40. He threw for 291 on only 28 attempts. That's very impressive, and we all know 28 attempts is only going up. Last year he averaged 37.3 attempts. 291 x 17 games = 4947 yards. Now, the 40 TD's may sound a bit optimistic, but in the last 6 seasons he has averaged 36.5 TD's, so it's not like I'm guessing Bryce Young is gonna throw for 40.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

4 people with Qb6 or later?

But they sure looked like the same 2023 KC Chiefs

You said it yourself. He was QB8 or 9 last year, right? I didn't vote in the poll but it's not entirely crazy to assume a similar outcome.

I'd definitely have him somewhere inside the top 6 just because of his consistency, plus if we're drafting today we already know that some of the other potential QB1 candidates like Tua, Love, Burrow, etc. are already out or falling out of contention. Can't think of 5 other QBs I'd draft ahead of him right now, but I also wouldn't bet a large sum of money that he finishes top 5 in fantasy points by the end of the year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You said it yourself. He was QB8 or 9 last year, right? I didn't vote in the poll but it's not entirely crazy to assume a similar outcome.

There was certainly a lot of hype to the contrary in the offseason.

Seems like writers & geeks alike project what they want to happen despite trends to the contrary. This might just be who the Chiefs are, regardless of whether the receiving core improved or not.

That said, it is only one game and this was intended as a lighthearted overreaction topic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

and we all know 28 attempts is only going up.

Do we though? Do we really?

 

[menobrown]

Had him as QB2 entering the year. After Hurts.

Losing Marquise Brown is a hit which will become exacerbated if Worthy suffers an injury. This is all key for a variety of reasons but you could easily tell Mahomes was anxious to get away from the dink and dunk world he's been relegated to living in and he needs this speed to pull that off. Otherwise he'll likely just look like he did most of last year. But I'm also a tad lower on Hurts and Allen then I was before we ever kicked off, just a little.

Still voted 2 but if I thought it was a league I could get a decent backup QB I'd probably move him to 3, behind Richardson who IMO is going to be The QB1 in fully healthy games, and maybe not that close but just relying on him without a safety net makes me inclined to leave Mahomes and Hurts over him.

This poll is about Mahomes but where to rank AR is the QB conundrum to me. Was my QB5 heading into the year, but like I said I think he's going to roll to The QB1 but remains a major injury red flag for now.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Seems like writers & geeks alike project what they want to happen despite trends to the contrary.

This is very common and fading the herd is usually where all the money is made. There will always be value on betting the under on someone like Mahomes.

It's interesting to frame this as an overreaction to a poor week 1 performance because if anything, week 1 was a positive outlier compared to last season. Mahomes' 291 pass yards last week were well above his 2023 average of 260, and 10+ YPA is something he only did once last year (and only a handful of other times in his career). He only threw more than 2+ TDs twice last year, and had at least one INT in 11/16 games. There's no QB on earth I'd rather have on my real NFL team, but for fantasy purposes he's not the league-winner he was when he first took the league by storm.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Seems like writers & geeks alike project what they want to happen despite trends to the contrary.

This is very common and fading the herd is usually where all the money is made. There will always be value on betting the under on someone like Mahomes.

It's interesting to frame this as an overreaction to a poor week 1 performance because if anything, week 1 was a positive outlier compared to last season. Mahomes' 291 pass yards last week were well above his 2023 average of 260, and 10+ YPA is something he only did once last year (and only a handful of other times in his career). He only threw more than 2+ TDs twice last year, and had at least one INT in 11/16 games. There's no QB on earth I'd rather have on my real NFL team, but for fantasy purposes he's not the league-winner he was when he first took the league by storm.

Very good point.

it’s felt like the Chiefs have had better run/pass balance the last couple of years, so it could well just be who they are.

And why would they go pass happy when they’ve been winning championships this way? Added to their commitment to the run, they are an improved and still improving defense. Karlaftis still has room to develop as a pass rusher and they have a very solid LB corps.

Running the ball, controlling the clock and playing good defense are recipes for success in the NFL. Chiefs have the rings to prove it. But those things run a bit counter to throwing the ball all Willy nilly.

IIRC in Mahomes early seasons the chiefs had a middling defense and found themselves in a lot of shootouts. That doesn’t seem to be the case any more.

Will be an interesting situation to watch as the season unfolds.

 

[TheWinz]

and we all know 28 attempts is only going up.

Do we though? Do we really?

100%. 28 x 17 = 476 attempts. Every team last year had more attempts.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

and we all know 28 attempts is only going up.

Do we though? Do we really?

100%. 28 x 17 = 476 attempts. Every team last year had more attempts.

Something something past performance / future results

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Numbers down a bit today. 18/25, 2/2 ran for 29.

ETA: and they won, so…

Just checking in.

 

[massraider]

Numbers down a bit today. 18/25, 2/2 ran for 29.

Just checking in…

I expect top numbers, rest of year. Pacheco is better than last year it looks like. Rice is ascending. Worthy looks like he is going to change games.

Also, bunch of other QBs' outlook for worse since the season started.

Rest of year, just glancing at the list, I have Mahomes/Allen/Stroud in a tier. Hurts right below there. After that, I have a lot of questions. Fun discussion. This is interesting.

What about you? Gimme your tiers.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Took him in the 3rd due to a 6 point passing TD league. We also get a lot of points for passing yards. I love the player and really thought we might see a 5000/50 year with all the new weapons.

I was wrong.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What about you? Gimme your tiers.

Imma wait to see how things go.

I had Mahomes in a lower tier than most. I think he’s about QB6-7 ROS. But then, that’s where I had him in the preseason.

The formula they’re using is working. I don’t see why they’d change if it ain’t broken.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I was wrong.

The season is young?

But yeah, I’m not seeing a return to 50. Improved defense, better run game.

I sold high on Mahomes on both leagues I had him. TBD if it was the right move, tbh.

 

[VikingFrog]

I’m getting sort of tired of these threads every week. We aren’t drafting today.

:shakes fist and yells at cloud:

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m getting sort of tired of these threads every week. We aren’t drafting today.

:shakes fist and yells at cloud:

Laugh reaction

I started this one last week. I did it in part to be ironic because of the other ones.

 

[Deamon]

Rest of year, just glancing at the list, I have Mahomes/Allen/Stroud in a tier. Hurts right below there. After that, I have a lot of questions. Fun discussion. This is interesting.

What about you? Gimme your tiers.

Tier 1
Allen
Hurts
Mahomes

Tier 2
Jackson
Murray
Stroud
Daniels

Tier 3
Prescott
Rypien
Richardson
Carr
Burrow

Tier 4
Purdy
Goff
Love
Mayfield

 

[BassNBrew]

Rest of year, just glancing at the list, I have Mahomes/Allen/Stroud in a tier. Hurts right below there. After that, I have a lot of questions. Fun discussion. This is interesting.

What about you? Gimme your tiers.

Tier 1
Allen
Hurts
Mahomes

Tier 2
Jackson
Murray
Stroud
Daniels

Tier 3
Prescott
Rypien
Richardson
Carr
Burrow

Tier 4
Purdy
Goff
Love
Mayfield

Tier 20
Young

 

[cheese]

Rest of year, just glancing at the list, I have Mahomes/Allen/Stroud in a tier. Hurts right below there. After that, I have a lot of questions. Fun discussion. This is interesting.

What about you? Gimme your tiers.

Tier 1
Allen
Hurts
Mahomes

Tier 2
Jackson
Murray
Stroud
Daniels

Tier 3
Prescott
Rypien
Richardson
Carr
Burrow

Tier 4
Purdy
Goff
Love
Mayfield

It took Mahomes almost the entire first quarter before his first pass beyond the line of scrimmage yesterday.

 

[Deamon]

Rest of year, just glancing at the list, I have Mahomes/Allen/Stroud in a tier. Hurts right below there. After that, I have a lot of questions. Fun discussion. This is interesting.

What about you? Gimme your tiers.

Tier 1
Allen
Hurts
Mahomes

Tier 2
Jackson
Murray
Stroud
Daniels

Tier 3
Prescott
Rypien
Richardson
Carr
Burrow

Tier 4
Purdy
Goff
Love
Mayfield

It took Mahomes almost the entire first quarter before his first pass beyond the line of scrimmage yesterday.

Yep, run game extremely effective. With Pacheco set to miss some time, I expect a bit of a shift and them getting Kelce more involved.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It took Mahomes almost the entire first quarter before his first pass beyond the line of scrimmage yesterday.

Just saw this interesting stat:

Four quarterbacks have an average target depth under 6 yards this season (PFF):

Malik Willis (5.6)
Gardner Minshew (5.6)
Jayden Daniels (5.2)
...
Patrick Mahomes (5.1)

 

[BlackCrowes]

yeah i'm not sure whats going on.

 

[Deamon]

Bump Mahomes based on the Pacheco news.

They've now got the rust off, they won't rely on the run as much, and they don't play in a cold environment until Nov 17.

Mahomes top 3 fantasy QB rest of season. Book it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So… yeah
Patrick Mahomes is only a streaming QB, not a starter. He has hit 20 fantasy points (4pt) in only 17.6% of his last 17 games. That is an F in our consistency metric.

17 games is a season, so that seems like a pretty good sample size. Granted, only 3 games into the new year with all his new vertical weapons. That he didn’t use.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Clearly I’m not alone on this topic:

Patrick Mahomes weekly QB finish since Week 1 2023 (* is FF playoffs)

QB7
QB11
QB5
QB17
QB11
QB8
QB1
QB30
QB12
QB14
QB8
QB16
QB20
QB14*
QB16*
QB25*
QB14

Top 5 = 11.8% (2/17)
Top 10 = 29.4% (5/17)
Outside of Top 12 = 52.9% (9/17)

Patrick Mahomes has not been WINNING you fantasy football matchups

Why did he have a consensus ADP of QB2?!

Maybe it’s the allure of 50+ TD potential?

I’m just not seeing him get back to that. Chiefs improving D is one of the biggest reasons.

x.com

x.com

 

[wlwiles]

At this point I think Allen is clearly in the top tier by himself.

Hurts without the Tush Push and with Barkley doing most of the running has been a disappointment so far through 3 weeks. I know, AJB has been out two games...but Hurts' floor was sky high because of the rushing, and he's not getting that so far.

Lamar is kind of the same boat with Hurts. He doesn't need to pound in all the short TD's when Henry is right there licking his chops to do it.

Mahomes is still the best NFL QB but their defense is super solid and he doesn't have to air it out all day to win games. He'll have some 4 TD games along the way but he's not going to singlehandedly win fantasy weeks like Allen will. I agree with HSG, he's going to be between QB5-10 by the end of the year.

 

[zoonation]

Mahomes is now only a matchup play. Too much data. He stinks for fantasy and has for almost a year now. I would seriously start the Red Rocket over him next week.

 

[Gally]

Mahomes is now only a matchup play. Too much data. He stinks for fantasy and has for almost a year now. I would seriously start the Red Rocket over him next week.

He is currently QB11 after three weeks in my 6 pt all TD (-3 pts for int/fumbles) league. I don't think he is a matchup play and is still an every week starter for most teams. So while the ceiling may be lowered I still think his floor is as a top 10-ish QB. That has value.

 

[-OZ-]

It’s perfectly understandable to list him later but if I were to take the first QB (I almost never do), I want a virtual lock top 10 QB. Mahomes and Allen are the safest plays in the business.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s perfectly understandable to list him later but if I were to take the first QB (I almost never do), I want a virtual lock top 10 QB. Mahomes and Allen are the safest plays in the business.

LJax has been better for FF IMO.

 

[zoonation]

It’s perfectly understandable to list him later but if I were to take the first QB (I almost never do), I want a virtual lock top 10 QB. Mahomes and Allen are the safest plays in the business.

Unless you look at the data from the last year where Mahomes has been a backend QB1 or QB2 with regularity.