Hey Bloom! What's up with dynasty QBs? (1 Viewer)

[nightshift]

I noticed how low you've been ranking QBs overall. What's you reasoning behind this?

Thanks!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I noticed how low you've been ranking QBs overall. What's you reasoning behind this?Thanks!

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)and otherwise, you're just about as good as having a committee of a vet and a kid, and a QB of the moment as you are starting someone like Rivers or Eli every week. QB is one of the only positions where you can play straight matchups, meaning the 8-15 ranked guys every week will not be as good as a QBBC of 2 guys ranked in the 16-25 range. I would rather have a solid WR2 or RB3 than one of the QBs who really just hold the line at QB1.

 

[nightshift]

I noticed how low you've been ranking QBs overall. What's you reasoning behind this?Thanks!

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)and otherwise, you're just about as good as having a committee of a vet and a kid, and a QB of the moment as you are starting someone like Rivers or Eli every week. QB is one of the only positions where you can play straight matchups, meaning the 8-15 ranked guys every week will not be as good as a QBBC of 2 guys ranked in the 16-25 range. I would rather have a solid WR2 or RB3 than one of the QBs who really just hold the line at QB1.

Okay. So that's 6-7 QBs that give really give you an edge. Limited commodity. Not to mention longegivity. Let's face it. Over the long haul of a career, Peyton, Palmer, or Brady will outproduce (ff point wise) just about any player that is not in uberstud status (LT2, LJ, etc.). and maybe even then, because as most RBs have short careers.My point is in dynasty a player's value is comprised of the highest points along with consistent production over a period of time beyond 1 season.I think having a solid dependable QB from the top 6-7 is critical to a ff team's success. I have seen more teams win with RBBC or WRBC than QBBC.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I think Bloom is right on with his

current dynasty QB rankings.

Jeff Pasq. on the other hand....

David Carr 12th

Phillip Rivers 13th

------------------------------------

Daunte Culpepper 18th

Vince Young 19th

None of us can predict the future,

but I couldn't disagree more with these QB rankings.

.

 

[Tom Baker]

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)

I think Brees has to be moved into the Manning/Palmer group as this point.

 

[nightshift]

I think Bloom is right on with hiscurrent dynasty QB rankings.Jeff Pasq. on the other hand.... David Carr 12thPhillip Rivers 13th ------------------------------------Daunte Culpepper 18thVince Young 19th None of us can predict the future, but I couldn't disagree more with these QB rankings..

I agree with Bloom's rankings within the QB class, howver, I do not agree with his QB rankings in the overall list.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I think Bloom is right on with hiscurrent dynasty QB rankings.Jeff Pasq. on the other hand.... David Carr 12thPhillip Rivers 13th ------------------------------------Daunte Culpepper 18thVince Young 19th None of us can predict the future, but I couldn't disagree more with these QB rankings..

I agree with Bloom's rankings within the QB class, howver, I do not agree with his QB rankings in the overall list.

I haven't looked much at the overall rankings.I usually refer to Bloom's positional rankings.I will build a new overall chart for my initial dynastydraft next season.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)

I think Brees has to be moved into the Manning/Palmer group as this point.

I disagree. His numbers this year are padded by that ridiculous 5 game stretch (PHI-CIN) when he was throwing over 40 passes a game. I wouldn't expect that to be an annual occurrence.

 

[Tom Baker]

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)

I think Brees has to be moved into the Manning/Palmer group as this point.

I disagree. His numbers this year are padded by that ridiculous 5 game stretch (PHI-CIN) when he was throwing over 40 passes a game. I wouldn't expect that to be an annual occurrence.

So when Manning or Palmer puts up a huge game, it's an indication of uberstudness-- when Brees does it, it's padding stats. This sounds like that ridiculous "garbage time" argument that people were laying on Colston for the first six weeks of the season. Brees is the top fantasy QB in my league and has topped 20 fantasy points in 8 of 12 games. Same number as Manning; one more than Palmer.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)

I think Brees has to be moved into the Manning/Palmer group as this point.

I disagree. His numbers this year are padded by that ridiculous 5 game stretch (PHI-CIN) when he was throwing over 40 passes a game. I wouldn't expect that to be an annual occurrence.

So when Manning or Palmer puts up a huge game, it's an indication of uberstudness-- when Brees does it, it's padding stats. This sounds like that ridiculous "garbage time" argument that people were laying on Colston for the first six weeks of the season. Brees is the top fantasy QB in my league and has topped 20 fantasy points in 8 of 12 games. Same number as Manning; one more than Palmer.

The difference is that Manning and Palmer have a track record of doing it with a reasonable number of pass attempts, Brees doesn't. Brees is on pace to throw almost 600 passes! Palmer threw 509 in his great 2005. Manning threw 497 in his 49 TD season. They can put up huge stats without filling the air with footballs. That's why they're uberstuds. If Brees throws this many passes again next year, or produces similar yards with less attempts, feel free to remind me of this thread, and I'll eat my words.

 

[Tom Baker]

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)

I think Brees has to be moved into the Manning/Palmer group as this point.

I disagree. His numbers this year are padded by that ridiculous 5 game stretch (PHI-CIN) when he was throwing over 40 passes a game. I wouldn't expect that to be an annual occurrence.

So when Manning or Palmer puts up a huge game, it's an indication of uberstudness-- when Brees does it, it's padding stats. This sounds like that ridiculous "garbage time" argument that people were laying on Colston for the first six weeks of the season. Brees is the top fantasy QB in my league and has topped 20 fantasy points in 8 of 12 games. Same number as Manning; one more than Palmer.

The difference is that Manning and Palmer have a track record of doing it with a reasonable number of pass attempts, Brees doesn't. Brees is on pace to throw almost 600 passes! Palmer threw 509 in his great 2005. Manning threw 497 in his 49 TD season. They can put up huge stats without filling the air with footballs. That's why they're uberstuds. If Brees throws this many passes again next year, or produces similar yards with less attempts, feel free to remind me of this thread, and I'll eat my words.

Fair enough. And thanks for your work on The Audible.

 

[dgreen]

The difference is that Manning and Palmer have a track record of doing it with a reasonable number of pass attempts, Brees doesn't. Brees is on pace to throw almost 600 passes! Palmer threw 509 in his great 2005. Manning threw 497 in his 49 TD season. They can put up huge stats without filling the air with footballs. That's why they're uberstuds. If Brees throws this many passes again next year, or produces similar yards with less attempts, feel free to remind me of this thread, and I'll eat my words.

Points per pass attempt since 2004:Manning - 0.72McNabb - 0.68Brees - 0.61Palmer - 0.58Of course, doing points per pass attempt makes Vick look really good (0.76).

 

[Biabreakable]

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)

then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)

I think Brees has to be moved into the Manning/Palmer group as this point.

I disagree. His numbers this year are padded by that ridiculous 5 game stretch (PHI-CIN) when he was throwing over 40 passes a game. I wouldn't expect that to be an annual occurrence.

So when Manning or Palmer puts up a huge game, it's an indication of uberstudness-- when Brees does it, it's padding stats. This sounds like that ridiculous "garbage time" argument that people were laying on Colston for the first six weeks of the season. Brees is the top fantasy QB in my league and has topped 20 fantasy points in 8 of 12 games. Same number as Manning; one more than Palmer.

The difference is that Manning and Palmer have a track record of doing it with a reasonable number of pass attempts, Brees doesn't. Brees is on pace to throw almost 600 passes! Palmer threw 509 in his great 2005. Manning threw 497 in his 49 TD season. They can put up huge stats without filling the air with footballs. That's why they're uberstuds. If Brees throws this many passes again next year, or produces similar yards with less attempts, feel free to remind me of this thread, and I'll eat my words.

In regards to Brees, I was looking at his career recently and noticed that his performance this year is not that different to how well he did in 2004. With exception of the number of pass attempts of course.From the Dynasty rankings thread:

Drew Brees 28 years next month:

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| Passing | Rushing |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| 2001 sdg | 1 | 15 27 55.6 221 8.2 1 0 | 2 18 0 |

| 2002 sdg | 16 | 320 526 60.8 3284 6.2 17 16 | 38 130 1 |

| 2003 sdg | 11 | 205 356 57.6 2108 5.9 11 15 | 21 84 0 |

| 2004 sdg | 15 | 262 400 65.5 3159 7.9 27 7 | 53 85 2 |

| 2005 sdg | 16 | 323 500 64.6 3576 7.2 24 15 | 21 49 1 |

| 2006 nor | 11 | 276 414 66.7 3469 8.4 19 10 | 27 22 0 |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| TOTAL | 70 | 1401 2223 63.0 15817 7.1 99 63 | 162 388 4 |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

Drew Brees is currently on pace to throw for 5045 yards and 28TDs. This is quite a spike in production now that he is with the Saints but it is not a far cry from the level that he was performing at in SD in 2004. He is just on pace for a lot more pass attempts (602) now with New Orleans than what he had in SD. Completion percentage a yards/attempt are also up and I think Brees has better weapons as well as a more friendly offense than he had in SD. Still Brees has a strong track record of performing well with what opportunities he has.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=291941Now as you can see his completion percentage and YPA are very close to the same in 2004 as they are in 2006. 2005 was solid also but his YPA was a bit down. Still I think you might want to look a bit closer at how consistent his performance has been over the last 3 years before you discount him as a elite Qb comparable to Brady and McNabb.

This is his 1st year with the Saints offense and young blosoming players Bush Colston and Henderson. I think there is reason to believe that this production will continue even if he has less pass attempts moving forward. That is if you think those skill players improve and become more efficient with experience as think they will.

 

[Biabreakable]

I noticed how low you've been ranking QBs overall. What's you reasoning behind this?Thanks!

I think you have the uberstuds (Peyton, Palmer, healthy McNabb)then you have the guys that give you an edge, but not a huge edge (Vick, Brady, Brees, Bulger with Pace)and otherwise, you're just about as good as having a committee of a vet and a kid, and a QB of the moment as you are starting someone like Rivers or Eli every week. QB is one of the only positions where you can play straight matchups, meaning the 8-15 ranked guys every week will not be as good as a QBBC of 2 guys ranked in the 16-25 range. I would rather have a solid WR2 or RB3 than one of the QBs who really just hold the line at QB1.

Okay. So that's 6-7 QBs that give really give you an edge. Limited commodity. Not to mention longegivity. Let's face it. Over the long haul of a career, Peyton, Palmer, or Brady will outproduce (ff point wise) just about any player that is not in uberstud status (LT2, LJ, etc.). and maybe even then, because as most RBs have short careers.My point is in dynasty a player's value is comprised of the highest points along with consistent production over a period of time beyond 1 season.I think having a solid dependable QB from the top 6-7 is critical to a ff team's success. I have seen more teams win with RBBC or WRBC than QBBC.

I don't think you need to have one of the elite Qbs to have success but over the long term a elite Qb is more valuable than most other players you might roster.You can get through one season using a QBBC as long as your other players are good. But eventualy your QBBC will fail you and cost you playoffs imho. I have seen this happen before. When employing the QBBC what your hoping for is that one of those Qbs emerges as a reliable starter for you in the years ahead. If that doesen't happen then your still going to be looking for answers and your teams success will be at risk.In terms of value of players overall I agree with your assesment that the solid Qbs should be very high on the list compared to other players. The other Qbs that are still in doubt.. I kind of agree with blooms point about this that you can use a combination of veteran starter with some younger prospects hoping one of your young ones pans out and becomes your full time Qb moving forward. Having 3 or 4 Qbs helps protect your from injury and lets you play matchups but eventualy you want one of those guys to become a guy that can hold it down for you.I like the QBBC approach though because having several Qbs helps you for potential trades. But like I said it definitly can blow up in your face if your Qb group falls apart.

 

[x260bm]

I like what Sigmund did with his overall rankings. I think uberstuds have more value in dynasty than redraft because they last so long. With RBs you are lucky if you get 3 years of fantasy starter quality stats, while an uberstud QB can last 10 years or more with relatively consistent production. Flavor of the month QBs can usually be found on the waiver wire or can be acquired cheaply even after they start having good games. This causes them to have a lower value in dynasty compared to redraft. This is especially true when you consider the fact that most people load up on RBs and WRs in dynasty. So I think the strategy of having uberstuds high and everyone else lower is a good one.

As for Brees I would tend to put him in the flavor of month category for now. He was still relatively cheap at the beginning of the season and I don’t think he is at the same talent level as the other QBs mentioned. I got burned by Kurt Warner in a dynasty league several years ago, so I might be overly cautious.

 

[nightshift]

I like what Sigmund did with his overall rankings. I think uberstuds have more value in dynasty than redraft because they last so long. With RBs you are lucky if you get 3 years of fantasy starter quality stats, while an uberstud QB can last 10 years or more with relatively consistent production. Flavor of the month QBs can usually be found on the waiver wire or can be acquired cheaply even after they start having good games. This causes them to have a lower value in dynasty compared to redraft. This is especially true when you consider the fact that most people load up on RBs and WRs in dynasty. So I think the strategy of having uberstuds high and everyone else lower is a good one.

But that's not what Bloom's OVERALL rankings reflect. Take Tom Brady, 4th ranked QB. In the Overall rankings, guys like Caddy, D. Williams, M. Barber, even Heap are ranked higher. Can't say that any of these guys have outproduced Brady or are likely to do so next year or even the year after.Since we are talking about FF points plus overall position value, I think the QB rankings are too low. Not to pick Bloom (he does great work), but this tendency is common in dynasty FF and I really don't understand why.

 

[-OZ-]

I like what Sigmund did with his overall rankings. I think uberstuds have more value in dynasty than redraft because they last so long. With RBs you are lucky if you get 3 years of fantasy starter quality stats, while an uberstud QB can last 10 years or more with relatively consistent production. Flavor of the month QBs can usually be found on the waiver wire or can be acquired cheaply even after they start having good games. This causes them to have a lower value in dynasty compared to redraft. This is especially true when you consider the fact that most people load up on RBs and WRs in dynasty. So I think the strategy of having uberstuds high and everyone else lower is a good one.

But that's not what Bloom's OVERALL rankings reflect. Take Tom Brady, 4th ranked QB. In the Overall rankings, guys like Caddy, D. Williams, M. Barber, even Heap are ranked higher. Can't say that any of these guys have outproduced Brady or are likely to do so next year or even the year after.Since we are talking about FF points plus overall position value, I think the QB rankings are too low. Not to pick Bloom (he does great work), but this tendency is common in dynasty FF and I really don't understand why.

Honestly, when I look at the list, nothing really jumps out at me as being so far off that I'd feel compelled to post about it, just personal preferences. I do think QBs are underrated in dynasty leagues, but I'm not sure if Bloom is attempting to reflect perceived values or where he would draft them if the league all saw things the same way.

 

[x260bm]

I like what Sigmund did with his overall rankings. I think uberstuds have more value in dynasty than redraft because they last so long. With RBs you are lucky if you get 3 years of fantasy starter quality stats, while an uberstud QB can last 10 years or more with relatively consistent production. Flavor of the month QBs can usually be found on the waiver wire or can be acquired cheaply even after they start having good games. This causes them to have a lower value in dynasty compared to redraft. This is especially true when you consider the fact that most people load up on RBs and WRs in dynasty. So I think the strategy of having uberstuds high and everyone else lower is a good one.

But that's not what Bloom's OVERALL rankings reflect. Take Tom Brady, 4th ranked QB. In the Overall rankings, guys like Caddy, D. Williams, M. Barber, even Heap are ranked higher. Can't say that any of these guys have outproduced Brady or are likely to do so next year or even the year after.Since we are talking about FF points plus overall position value, I think the QB rankings are too low. Not to pick Bloom (he does great work), but this tendency is common in dynasty FF and I really don't understand why.

Brady is 20 spots higher than he is in redraft rankings. How much further do you want him to go up?

 

[nightshift]

I like what Sigmund did with his overall rankings. I think uberstuds have more value in dynasty than redraft because they last so long. With RBs you are lucky if you get 3 years of fantasy starter quality stats, while an uberstud QB can last 10 years or more with relatively consistent production. Flavor of the month QBs can usually be found on the waiver wire or can be acquired cheaply even after they start having good games. This causes them to have a lower value in dynasty compared to redraft. This is especially true when you consider the fact that most people load up on RBs and WRs in dynasty. So I think the strategy of having uberstuds high and everyone else lower is a good one.

But that's not what Bloom's OVERALL rankings reflect. Take Tom Brady, 4th ranked QB. In the Overall rankings, guys like Caddy, D. Williams, M. Barber, even Heap are ranked higher. Can't say that any of these guys have outproduced Brady or are likely to do so next year or even the year after.Since we are talking about FF points plus overall position value, I think the QB rankings are too low. Not to pick Bloom (he does great work), but this tendency is common in dynasty FF and I really don't understand why.

Brady is 20 spots higher than he is in redraft rankings. How much further do you want him to go up?

Not sure. But take the guys I mentioned. Caddy? In the dog house right now with Gruden. M. Barber? Yes, he produces but he's a backup. D. Williams? Still a backup. Heap? A #######' TE! So there's four spots & I'm sure there's more.Of course it's percieved value and I know when Brady gets drafted. But when evaluating overall value, I still think there are more QBs worth more than backup RBs, TEs, etc.