Hillis: Buy Low. (1 Viewer)

[Black&Gold]

After checking out many dynasty rankings and rankings for 2011 refdraft, I think Hillis is being looked at as a fluke. Which is why I believe he is being undervalued right now and is a good buy.

He finished 2nd in fantasy points in my PPR league at the RB position.

Att Yds TD Fum Lost Rec Yds TD Tgt

270 1177 11 5 61 477 2 77

His 270 attempts were a career high but still didn't go over the dreaded 300 carry mark. His 4.4 yards/attempt looks pretty good as a bruiser. 61 receptions on 77 targets is good. He was the offfense for the Browns this season. They felt good enough about him to let Harrison go who was the starter for the first 2 weeks. He was hurt the final 3 weeks. So he did his damage in about 11/12 games.

Sure there will be a new coach and Hardesty is coming back but Holmgren went out and got him from Denver. He also let Harrison go. Also at age 25, he has many good years ahead in dynasty.

 

[The Captain]

I can't find fault with any of your points. He is a great buy low. I think Hardesty will help keep Hillis fresh.

Question is: what will it take to buy him?

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Hardesty looked really good before getting hurt. If he's back to 100% I think it's going to be difficult to try and pinpoint Hillis' value before seeing how both backs are used in camp and preseason this year.

 

[rzrback77]

Thought that it was Mangini that really like Hillis? Think that the combo of new coaches, surely improved passing and Hardesty returning is all the logic you need for Hillis decreased scoring and I am a huge fan. He arrived at Arkansas a year before McFadden and Jones and was an integral part of the Arkansas offense as a Freshman, only to see reduced activity after that.

 

[todisco1]

Hillis wore down at the end of the year. He's a good RB who does everything well, but he won't ever get that many touches again in a season. Hardesty or someone else will eat into his touches IMO. Hillis is tough as nails but he's so big and physical that I think he'll have a short career if he keeps this up.

 

[Kiddnets]

I think he will be a low end #2 but a great #3 RB next year....should be the GL back and have decent numbers but nowhere near this last year...plus he was awful down the stretch...I wont be trusting him to be a starter for any of my teams.

 

[Black&Gold]

Hardesty looked really good before getting hurt. If he's back to 100% I think it's going to be difficult to try and pinpoint Hillis' value before seeing how both backs are used in camp and preseason this year.

We've seen plenty of players that look really good in preseason. I don't know how you discount over 1600 total yards.

 

[Black&Gold]

I think he will be a low end #2 but a great #3 RB next year....should be the GL back and have decent numbers but nowhere near this last year...plus he was awful down the stretch...I wont be trusting him to be a starter for any of my teams.

He was hurt the final couple games. Week 14 he still went for over 100 yards.

 

[Black&Gold]

Hillis wore down at the end of the year. He's a good RB who does everything well, but he won't ever get that many touches again in a season. Hardesty or someone else will eat into his touches IMO. Hillis is tough as nails but he's so big and physical that I think he'll have a short career if he keeps this up.

Why couldn't he get that many touches again? His total carries was a lot more than he was ever used to. I actually think he could see more touches next year.

 

[Black&Gold]

Thought that it was Mangini that really like Hillis? Think that the combo of new coaches, surely improved passing and Hardesty returning is all the logic you need for Hillis decreased scoring and I am a huge fan. He arrived at Arkansas a year before McFadden and Jones and was an integral part of the Arkansas offense as a Freshman, only to see reduced activity after that.

I agree, there are some question marks. But I'm not going to annoint Hardesty as the next big thing. A lot of us have been waiting on Donald Brown to. His new head coach fed S. Jackson enough.

 

[Black&Gold]

I can't find fault with any of your points. He is a great buy low. I think Hardesty will help keep Hillis fresh. Question is: what will it take to buy him?

Agreed. I think Hardesty and an improved passing game will help him. The Browns offense in on the rise. I liked what I saw from McCoy.....and this coming from a Steeler fan.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I sold him near the deadline for pierre thomas, jay cutler, and what turned out to be pick 1.07 or 1.08.

I think it was good value then and id still make that deal in a heartbeat today.

Might help give an idea of what it might take to get him.

 

[Sinrman]

Until they get the necessary parts, Cleveland will be a run-first team. Getting Hardesty back will help keep Hillis fresh. There is always the unknown with a new coach and

how he will use a one-year wonder like Hillis. I think he could be more than a one-year wonder, but they need to keep him fresh, work new schemes to give him some

holes to run through, and they need a better passing game.

 

[Football Jones]

Hillis was a one-man gang. He had an incredible season when you take into account the lack of help.

That said, Colt McCoy is going to be a good one & they have the OL. With more help at WR, this team could really surprise. I look for them to be a playoff team within 2 years.

In short, Hillis is one of the best all-purpose RBs in the NFL. He passes the eyeball test & what he did was no fluke. Peyton Hillis is one of the best bargains in FF, IMO (assuming you can get him at a reasonable price).

 

[Boom Switch]

Hillis was a one-man gang. He had an incredible season when you take into account the lack of help. That said, Colt McCoy is going to be a good one & they have the OL. With more help at WR, this team could really surprise. I look for them to be a playoff team within 2 years.In short, Hillis is one of the best all-purpose RBs in the NFL. He passes the eyeball test & what he did was no fluke. Peyton Hillis is one of the best bargains in FF, IMO (assuming you can get him at a reasonable price).

I have him in a dynasty league, no way in hell i'd sell him for a bunch of junk..

 

[moderated]

As long as he's smart about his PED cycle and doesn't get caught he should be decent.

He'll juice up again in the offseason then cycle off during the year when it't too risky. Problem is he wears out by end of the year and can't risk juicing up then as it's too risky.

Id trade him after his amazing start next year when he's at the optimal part of his cycle for a comparable rb who is natural.

 

[cvnpoka]

Hardesty looked really good before getting hurt. If he's back to 100% I think it's going to be difficult to try and pinpoint Hillis' value before seeing how both backs are used in camp and preseason this year.

We've seen plenty of players that look really good in preseason. I don't know how you discount over 1600 total yards.

initial post is a complete headscratcher. hardesty was injured and didnt play and hardly practiced in the first 3 preseason games then went 7 for 25 and tore his acl in game 4. maybe frankbot was at early camp and otas prior to the injury with his scouting glasses on.

 

[cvnpoka]

hillis demise is greatly overstated. much of it could be attributed to the vicious shot to the the back he took on the opening drive vs the ravens. from there he split carries with mike bell for the last 2 games vs 2 of the toughest run ds.

ya, he did poorly vs the bengals in weeks 12 and 14, but everyone has some bad games. he was fine in other weeks, including taking on a very tough jets d in week 9 for 107yfs and a td. he also dominated the panthers in week 11 for 194 yfs and 3 tds.

 

[djmich]

I think Hillis is slightly undervalued. In his favor is that he's good, he can catch, Browns offense should improve, and Hardesty might actually help keep him fresher. Working against him is that he plays PIT & BAL 25% of his games, and there is the possibility that Hardesty could carve out a bigger role than anticipated.

Overall I think the Hardesty angle is overplayed, but what keeps him out of top 10 for me is that he plays so many tough D's, and I think in the short term the Browns offense won't improve enough and D's will still be focused on him.

 

[cvnpoka]

tend to agree, this year was a perfect storm for hillis. i doubt i will project him in the top 10 next season, but 10-15 seems decent off the top of my head.

 

[thetman]

Hardesty? Lol. Give me a break. Hillis is the man in Cleveland and easily a #1 fantasy rb next year.

 

[Joe Summer]

He's a SELL HIGH for me. The shelf life of a white running back is pretty short.

 

[indyram96]

tend to agree, this year was a perfect storm for hillis. i doubt i will project him in the top 10 next season, but 10-15 seems decent off the top of my head.

I think he and hardesty will be splitting carries next yearWhoever has the hot hand will get the majority of the carriesHad hillis and hardesty in my dynasty until my doush of aLm decided to expand to 16 teams and have a redraft nextYear

 

[TheWheel]

I say he becomes their fullback. TD vulture.

 

[cvnpoka]

I say he becomes their fullback. TD vulture.

that would be a mismanagement it seems, but im no nfl talent evaluator. its certainly a possibility that drives his value down.

 

[Black&Gold]

I say he becomes their fullback. TD vulture.

People still can't get used to a white lead RB. Sure, he looks like a FB.........

 

[Jimboozie]

As long as he's smart about his PED cycle and doesn't get caught he should be decent.He'll juice up again in the offseason then cycle off during the year when it't too risky. Problem is he wears out by end of the year and can't risk juicing up then as it's too risky.Id trade him after his amazing start next year when he's at the optimal part of his cycle for a comparable rb who is natural.

 

[Boom Switch]

I say he becomes their fullback. TD vulture.

People still can't get used to a white lead RB. Sure, he looks like a FB.........

A lot of racism going on in here...

 

[TheWheel]

No because he could rerevolutionize the FB position. He can catch, he can run, he can block. Vickers is the man but is he sticking around? They could dominate with the three back set. A guy like Hillis needs to be on the field and the more places he lines up the better. He could go to tailback whenever needed. Not to mention he could bring back the FB Dive as a real play again.

Seeing how Pat Shurmur ran the Rams offense, expect him to play the Steven Jackson role. He actually fits that role pretty well considering his skills.

 

[Black&Gold]

No because he could rerevolutionize the FB position. He can catch, he can run, he can block. Vickers is the man but is he sticking around? They could dominate with the three back set. A guy like Hillis needs to be on the field and the more places he lines up the better. He could go to tailback whenever needed. Not to mention he could bring back the FB Dive as a real play again. Seeing how Pat Shurmur ran the Rams offense, expect him to play the Steven Jackson role. He actually fits that role pretty well considering his skills.

I agree with the Steven Jackson role. That's why I questioned the FB.

 

[flc735]

any comparisons to mike anderson here?

was brought in as a fullback to denver in 2000. davis gets hurt and he goes for about

300 carries, 1500 yards, 15 td's

his years after were big disappointments as he shifted back into the fullback role once davis was back

could this happen to hillis if hardesty turns out to be a top 10-15 rb?

maybe he gets "demoted" to the fullback/'tailback on reserve' role??

 

[nxmehta]

Be very careful here guys. I would wait and see how the team looks in training camp. There are a couple of possible pitfalls here:

1. Brand new coaching staff- how will they evaluate Hillis?

2. How big of a role will the RB have in the West Coast offense that's going to be installed? (note- this could actually be advantageous to Hillis because of his great hands)

3. Where does the team see Hardesty? He was drafted in the 2nd round. The Browns traded up to get this guy. Tom Heckert was clearly behind the move, and the entire new coaching staff is highly aligned with him (he worked with Shurmur for nearly a decade in Philly). They are all very much on the same page (they said as much in Shurmur's first presser), and there's a good chance they want to give Hardesty a shot.

I'd classify Hillis as a hold- too much uncertainty to buy/sell.