Home field advantage in 2019 - where did it go? (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

As I was going over my wildcard week playoff picks, I decided to check out team records, home versus away.  Something jumped out quickly - home field advantage wasn't really a thing this year.  Of the 12 playoff teams, their combined home records total 65-31, while their away records total 71-25.  Six of the twelve teams posted better away records, three had identical home/away records, and only GB, MIN, and PHI were better at home vs on the road.  And it wasn't just the playoff teams this year... it was across the entire league.  There were 132 home wins this year.  I went back to 2010, and the average from 2010 to 2018 was 146 home wins, with a high of 153 and a low of 138.  All these numbers may sound close when you read them quickly, but when viewed in a different manner, 2019 really stands out:

132, 138, 143, 145, 145, 145, 146, 147, 153, 153

Anyone care to venture a guess as to why 2019 is such an outlier?  I really have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see 3 out of 4 road teams win this week.

 

[matttyl]

As I was going over my wildcard week playoff picks, I decided to check out team records, home versus away.  Something jumped out quickly - home field advantage wasn't really a thing this year.  Of the 12 playoff teams, their combined home records total 65-31, while their away records total 71-25.  Six of the twelve teams posted better away records, three had identical home/away records, and only GB, MIN, and PHI were better at home vs on the road.  And it wasn't just the playoff teams this year... it was across the entire league.  There were 132 home wins this year.  I went back to 2010, and the average from 2010 to 2018 was 146 home wins, with a high of 153 and a low of 138.  All these numbers may sound close when you read them quickly, but when viewed in a different manner, 2019 really stands out:

132, 138, 143, 145, 145, 145, 146, 147, 153, 153

Anyone care to venture a guess as to why 2019 is such an outlier?  I really have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see 3 out of 4 road teams win this week.

Overall, how has game attendance been this year vs previous?  Big difference between 30k screaming fans and 80k screaming fans. 

 

[TheWinz]

Overall, how has game attendance been this year vs previous?  Big difference between 30k screaming fans and 80k screaming fans. 

That's a great point!  I guess we can also add in the "fake" home games played in London, Mexico, etc.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-home-field-advantage/

 

[IHEARTFF]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-home-field-advantage/

Great article summarizing many reasons HFA is reducing. 

 

[TheWinz]

I had to go all the way back to 1994 to find a season with less home wins than this year.  What's even more amazing about that is for a 4-year stretch from 1995 through 1998, there were only 30 teams instead of 32.  In 1994 there were only 28 teams, and there were still 128 home wins.  Since the NFL upped to 32 teams in 1999, the average season has seen 145 home wins.  This year's 132 is the farthest deviation from that.

 

[TheWinz]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-home-field-advantage/

Very good article.  Another reason to add would be ease of travel for fans.  It's very common nowadays to see an almost equal distribution of road team fans in the stands.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-home-field-advantage/

i am a big fan of Sharp, but I find a lot of that to just be little more than gossip.  I agree with this one:

4. More neutral officiating

Historically, there was little record-keeping of penalties called, type of infraction, and the referee who threw the flag. Now, we have analytics and metrics across the entire crew of officals. The NFL has spent time and money on increasing fairness through closer monitoring of officials.  This clearly would have an impact on home-field advantage. With less TV coverage in the past and less oversight, officials may have been more inclined to side with the screaming home crowd. But with every decision being graded, and potentially leading to termination, officials are far more likely to try to make the “right” call as opposed to the “easy” call.

if you believe what they said in Scorecasting years ago, this would make sense, and i believe that there has been a similar trend in the NBA.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Very good article.  Another reason to add would be ease of travel for fans.  It's very common nowadays to see an almost equal distribution of road team fans in the stands.

that assumes that the fans actually influence the outcomes of the games.

 

[TheWinz]

that assumes that the fans actually influence the outcomes of the games.

How many times do you remember a road team having to call a timeout because of crowd noise?  And what about teams getting caught pumping in "canned cheers" from loudspeakers?  Fans absolutely can influence outcomes.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

More and more players enjoy being away from their wives.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

How many times do you remember a road team having to call a timeout because of crowd noise?  And what about teams getting caught pumping in "canned cheers" from loudspeakers?  Fans absolutely can influence outcomes.

i don't find those anecdotes particularly compelling toward predicting the larger trend

 

[TheWinz]

i don't find those anecdotes particularly compelling toward predicting the larger trend

To be fair, I never said a trend was happening.  I was only curious as to why home field advantage took such a drastic hit THIS year.  We've had 32 teams going on 21 years now.  In the first 10 years, there were 1453 home wins.  In the next 10 years, there were 1461 home wins.  If anything, home field advantage has risen over time, not decreased, as the article suggested.  That said, I still think crowd noise can play a part, but has been combated by helmet headsets, more road fans, etc.

 

[Arodin]

To be fair, I never said a trend was happening.  I was only curious as to why home field advantage took such a drastic hit THIS year.  We've had 32 teams going on 21 years now.  In the first 10 years, there were 1453 home wins.  In the next 10 years, there were 1461 home wins.  If anything, home field advantage has risen over time, not decreased, as the article suggested.  That said, I still think crowd noise can play a part, but has been combated by helmet headsets, more road fans, etc.

I think the helmet mic, which came in right at the start of those 21 years, has had a huge impact, as has rapid progress in noise-cancelling technology in parallel.  The latter can quite literally “take the crowd out of the game.”