How do you create your projections? (1 Viewer)

[koreansteve]

Got some extra time today so I'm embarking on creating my projections for 2012.

Curious, how do you guys create your projections?

Any tips, suggestions, warnings for a first time projector?

 

[Lab]

I know that others are more educated than I am, so I take projections from several sites, and average them to reduce bias.

 

[rizzler]

Simplest Method:

Take FBG projections and multiply by 1.20 for yardage and 1.35 for TDs

 

[kutta]

I do something kind of different, but it's a fun exercise.

I give each player scores based on "best potential finish (1-10, with 10 being the best)," "% chance to finish there (0-100%)," and "are they the primary target or ball carrier (1-5)."

So for Ray Rice, I would have numbers of (10 - meaning he could be the top RB), (90 - 90% chance he is the top guy), and (5 - no competition for carries). I then have a formula that considers those factors as well as what I call a "position factor," and I end up with a number score.

Then, I group based on tiers of numbers. So guys like Rice, McCoy, and Foster will all be in my top RB tier, and I go down the line with tiers of somewhere between 3-8 guys.

It sounds complicated, but it allows me to do my own rankings without doing detailed projections for every guy. Now that I have the spreadsheet set up, it actually goes pretty quickly each year.

ETA: Another example for this year, though I haven't done my rankings yet, would be DeMarco Murray. I'd give him an 8 (meaning his best finish would be in the 80th percentile), 70 (he has an 70% chance of doing that), and a 3 (he shares some carries but should still get a good amount).

 

[TheGrimReaper]

Got some extra time today so I'm embarking on creating my projections for 2012.

Curious, how do you guys create your projections?

Any tips, suggestions, warnings for a first time projector?

1. Set up your excel spreadsheet w/ a seperate sheet for each of the 4 primary positions (QB, RB, WR, TE)Make sure you set it up to auto calc the total points (TP) and points per game (PPG) based on your leagues bylaws

For instance at QB, the columns would be NAME, TEAM, BYE, GAMES, ATTEMPTS, COMPL, COMPL %, TD, INT, RUSH ATT, YDS, TD, TP, PPG, (VBD, ADP)

2. The easiest two positions to start w/ are QB and TE.

3. When you do the RB and WR positions, the easiest way to process thru is to do a complete team at a time. As a self check process, you should be

going back and ensuring that the numbers you are generating balance out against one another. i.e. add up your rects, yardage totals and TD's for the

RB, WR, and TE on a given team and verify that matches up with your QB projections

4. Now that you have doen your projections, start slotting in the players by rank based on those projections. Then utilize a VBD (value based drafting)

algorithim to better contrast compare values btwn positions. This is IMO, critical if you expect to use your intel effectively.

5. Go out and do some research on ADP. Be careful to select quality data when doing this or you will get yourself burned.

I hope that helps.

P.S. Also keep in mind that there is historical turnover averages at each position. Dont get yourslef locked in the herd mentality when doing your projections. For instance in PPR at the WR position, the average turnover in the Top 10 WR from the prior year is in excess of 50% historically. In fact it is closer to 60% for the last decade. When you move out to the top 20 year over year, the average is still somewhere between 40-50%. I have the exact %'s but dont have them with me right now.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I usually look at track record (last 3 seasons or so), changes to current team, and then try to do my own projections without looking elsewhere. Afterwards, if some seem really out of line compared to other sources, I will reconsider and possibly change projections but that all depends. Ive always trusted myself more than others, and its worked.

 

[mlball77]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team.

For me, it is critical to first come up with what I think Team X is likely to produce before I start getting into how many receiving yards a WR on that team may end up with or how many rushing yards their RB1 could post. I've discovered it is easy to get carried away with projections for individual players (often on the high side) if you don't first sight-in numbers for the team.

 

[cvnpoka]

guess how many plays a team will run

guess run pass ratio

guess carry distribution

guess target distribution

obv use history as a guide given skill players and coaches.

 

[DoubleG]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team. For me, it is critical to first come up with what I think Team X is likely to produce before I start getting into how many receiving yards a WR on that team may end up with or how many rushing yards their RB1 could post. I've discovered it is easy to get carried away with projections for individual players (often on the high side) if you don't first sight-in numbers for the team.

Sometimes, if you look carefully at some ratings it's obvious that the person ranking didn't even do this (especially when it comes to things like total TDs or some such). Occasionally, even the "bigshots" fail to do this - either that or they expect every team to breaks their respective total TDs or total yards on offense in a season...every year.This especially holds true when looking at QB and WR numbers - often times it's seems as though some people put together the QB stats, then simply divide his numbers amoung the WRs and TEs, but QBs throw to backs (And not always the starters) - they throw to backup TEs, FB, and 4th and 5th WRs - and at times those numbers don't even come close to matching up.

 

[koreansteve]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team.

Thanks for all the input. Is there a website that has organized information regarding # of run plays, # of pass plays, WR1 numbers, WR2 numbers, total rushing yds, etc for each team for the last 1-3 years?

 

[TheGrimReaper]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team.

Thanks for all the input. Is there a website that has organized information regarding # of run plays, # of pass plays, WR1 numbers, WR2 numbers, total rushing yds, etc for each team for the last 1-3 years?

www.profootballreference.com

 

[mlball77]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team.

Thanks for all the input. Is there a website that has organized information regarding # of run plays, # of pass plays, WR1 numbers, WR2 numbers, total rushing yds, etc for each team for the last 1-3 years?

www.profootballreference.com

Good call. And of course, the FBG projections are a great reference for this info as well... once they are posted, that is.

 

[joey]

Here's my methodology...

1) Pay FBG to do the work.

2) Use their projections/rankings.

3) Shift guys up and down a little based on personal preference and opinion.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

1. Create individual mats with random projections for yards, catches, TDs, etc. printed on them in a grid pattern(sorta like a "Twister" mat).

2. Create a list of all relevant players for the particular league that I'm generating projections for.

3. Using that list, for each player I blindfold myself(to make it impossible to cheat) and leap onto the mat.

4. Whatever yardage/TD/whatever total I land on is the projection for that statistic for that player.

5. Profit.

 

[GregR]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team. For me, it is critical to first come up with what I think Team X is likely to produce before I start getting into how many receiving yards a WR on that team may end up with or how many rushing yards their RB1 could post. I've discovered it is easy to get carried away with projections for individual players (often on the high side) if you don't first sight-in numbers for the team.

Sometimes, if you look carefully at some ratings it's obvious that the person ranking didn't even do this (especially when it comes to things like total TDs or some such). Occasionally, even the "bigshots" fail to do this - either that or they expect every team to breaks their respective total TDs or total yards on offense in a season...every year.This especially holds true when looking at QB and WR numbers - often times it's seems as though some people put together the QB stats, then simply divide his numbers amoung the WRs and TEs, but QBs throw to backs (And not always the starters) - they throw to backup TEs, FB, and 4th and 5th WRs - and at times those numbers don't even come close to matching up.

I agree with this method as well.Your end results should be reasonable when looking at leaguewide totals and totals by team.Don't worry as much though about how you resulting position curve looks compared to normal end of season results. That is, your RBs 15-25 will probably outscore what real end of season RBs 15-25 score, because the real ones contain players who performed at a higher level (which is where you should have them projected), but missed time due to injuries. Looking at average points per game is a better way to look at positional curves if checking for being realistic.

 

[GregR]

Here's my methodology...1) Pay FBG to do the work. 2) Use their projections/rankings. 3) Shift guys up and down a little based on personal preference and opinion.

Honestly you can get very good results doing this. The most important thing is that you end up with something that can give you a ranking that also expresses the magnitude of difference in your beliefs between players.I've compared my projections to FBGs before and only been able to tell which were mine and which were FBGs based on a few players we differed noticeably about.Ok, that said, the act of creating projections on your own will educate you about the players and teams and their situations in a way that nothing else will. The knowledge gained from doing so is quite valuable.But with that said, it still is a low-effort way of getting a result that should be close to your beliefs.

 

[joey]

Here's my methodology...1) Pay FBG to do the work. 2) Use their projections/rankings. 3) Shift guys up and down a little based on personal preference and opinion.

Honestly you can get very good results doing this. The most important thing is that you end up with something that can give you a ranking that also expresses the magnitude of difference in your beliefs between players.I've compared my projections to FBGs before and only been able to tell which were mine and which were FBGs based on a few players we differed noticeably about.Ok, that said, the act of creating projections on your own will educate you about the players and teams and their situations in a way that nothing else will. The knowledge gained from doing so is quite valuable.But with that said, it still is a low-effort way of getting a result that should be close to your beliefs.

I came up with my very scientific method above after a few seasons of putting more effort into making rankings of my own and not seeing a big enough difference in results to warrant the time I was putting into it. There are a dozen or so folks employed by FBG that can put in that effort for me. I can also check few other "reputable" sites just to make sure Group Think isn't slanting all the FBG rankings too much on certain players.Butt, honestly, with injuries and dumb luck playing such a big role in this little hobby, I'm happy to spend a couple of lunches worth of cash for someone else to do the heavy lifting for me , and for me to just nudge the results around a hair here and there. Then again, maybe I just stink at this and am better off letting someone else make the decisions for me.

 

[mlball77]

I do my projections team by team, and I look at how I believe each team will produce in passing/receiving and rushing vs. the last season or two for that team. I try to think about if there have been coaching changes, offensive scheme changes, personnel changes, etc. that will impact a given team. Once I come to grips with how a given team will do, as a whole, I work on divvying those Yds and TDs out to the various players on that team. For me, it is critical to first come up with what I think Team X is likely to produce before I start getting into how many receiving yards a WR on that team may end up with or how many rushing yards their RB1 could post. I've discovered it is easy to get carried away with projections for individual players (often on the high side) if you don't first sight-in numbers for the team.

Sometimes, if you look carefully at some ratings it's obvious that the person ranking didn't even do this (especially when it comes to things like total TDs or some such). Occasionally, even the "bigshots" fail to do this - either that or they expect every team to breaks their respective total TDs or total yards on offense in a season...every year.This especially holds true when looking at QB and WR numbers - often times it's seems as though some people put together the QB stats, then simply divide his numbers amoung the WRs and TEs, but QBs throw to backs (And not always the starters) - they throw to backup TEs, FB, and 4th and 5th WRs - and at times those numbers don't even come close to matching up.

I agree with this method as well.Your end results should be reasonable when looking at leaguewide totals and totals by team.Don't worry as much though about how you resulting position curve looks compared to normal end of season results. That is, your RBs 15-25 will probably outscore what real end of season RBs 15-25 score, because the real ones contain players who performed at a higher level (which is where you should have them projected), but missed time due to injuries. Looking at average points per game is a better way to look at positional curves if checking for being realistic.

Great point.

 

[sspunisher]

If you watch a lot of football, all I'll say is follow your gut about players. Don't participate in fantasy football "groupthink" for lack of a better term. When you first start ranking/projecting players, sometimes you feel like you should rank a player higher just because a majority of people like him. Don't do that. Make your board/rankings and don't be afraid to rely on them come draft time.

 

[Chazzhawk]

I make a spreadsheet and load up whatever projections I like the best, then I go through them and adjust them once a month until draft time in August. I also base some of my projections on owning someone in the past, and such. During the season when I am sitting around watching football if I see something I like or dislike I will pull up the spreadsheet and make a note on that player, also adding in the week it happened and who they were playing. My ranks are usually different than most sites but I take my own personal bias about certain players. I hate Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Johnson because I have been burned by them so bad in the past, they move further down my draft boards than other players. I have Bradshaw outside my top 30 rbs for Dynasty and some where around 30 for a redraft, I have Andre Johnson outside my top 20 wrs in dynasty and around 15th in redraft.

Rankings are all subject to how you like the players, the best strategy is to know who you are drafting with and make a plan, and STICK TO THE PLAN. Last year I had the 3rd pick and didn't stick to the plan and took the Law Firm in the 6th round and tried to let Jimmy Graham slip to the 7th round for me in a dynasty league. He got scooped up and I panicked and drafted Owen Daniels, my plan was to get Graham and take whatever NE TE was left over in the 8th or 9th round since I already had Brady, I would have gotten Gronkowski in the 8th or 9th. Instead of sticking to the plan I ended up being 1 and done in the playoffs and odds are I would have won the whole damn thing.

 

[Phenix]

Nothing is better than gut feeling. Seems to work for me.

 

[koreansteve]

Is there a decent site to help navigate coaching changes and how that will affect the team's overall strategy?

I know i've read in the SP that Schiano in TB is likely to feature the run game more than Morris did in previous years.

I've read about Haley as the OC in Pittsburgh wanting to open up the pass game more.

 

[GregR]

Is there a decent site to help navigate coaching changes and how that will affect the team's overall strategy?I know i've read in the SP that Schiano in TB is likely to feature the run game more than Morris did in previous years.I've read about Haley as the OC in Pittsburgh wanting to open up the pass game more.

There is a pinned thread at the top of the Shark Pool that lists the changes. But it doesn't go into specifics on every, or even most, of the coaches there.Profootballreference.com has stats where you could go look at what a team did while a coach was there, but I don't know of a site that tracks detailed coach info like philosophy and such.

 

[Moe Green]

Here's my methodology...1) Pay FBG to do the work. 2) Use their projections/rankings. 3) Shift guys up and down a little based on personal preference and opinion.

 

[GregR]

Also worth mentioning that the FBG Team Reports are live for 2012. Not specifically trying to give you everything needed to do projections, but a good place to find information on the state of a team.

 

[zed2283]

I do something kind of different, but it's a fun exercise. I give each player scores based on "best potential finish (1-10, with 10 being the best)," "% chance to finish there (0-100%)," and "are they the primary target or ball carrier (1-5)."So for Ray Rice, I would have numbers of (10 - meaning he could be the top RB), (90 - 90% chance he is the top guy), and (5 - no competition for carries). I then have a formula that considers those factors as well as what I call a "position factor," and I end up with a number score.Then, I group based on tiers of numbers. So guys like Rice, McCoy, and Foster will all be in my top RB tier, and I go down the line with tiers of somewhere between 3-8 guys. It sounds complicated, but it allows me to do my own rankings without doing detailed projections for every guy. Now that I have the spreadsheet set up, it actually goes pretty quickly each year.ETA: Another example for this year, though I haven't done my rankings yet, would be DeMarco Murray. I'd give him an 8 (meaning his best finish would be in the 80th percentile), 70 (he has an 70% chance of doing that), and a 3 (he shares some carries but should still get a good amount).

I like this idea a lot.Projections are a waste of time, but this seems like a good way to rank players.Would be interested in seeing/using your spreadsheet.

 

[suttree]

I'm gonna do projections for the first time this year. Seems to me the first thing I need to know is which stats are most stable from year to year. For example, RB y/a seems to be more consistent than WR catch rate. Does anybody have a feel for which historical stats are the most trust-worthy?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Curious, how do you guys create your projections?

Any tips, suggestions, warnings for a first time projector?

I don't.... its a waste of time. What I do is print off an early mock draft/auction (I do auction). I look at what players I feel are the best value and how I can acquire them to construct my team. I do this early on so that Im not affected by "group-think" and "hype-trains". Once I get a feel of where the value is at I continue to follow that value and where it goes as the pre-season rolls along. I add a few players here and there but I don't get to wrapped up in projecting players because at the end of the day its not going to be right and you end up doing tons of projections for players you won't end up drafting.The key is really to take an early look .... because come August hype and group-think are out of control as people read their online articles more and more and accept what people are saying as fact.

 

[mlball77]

I think some are dismissing the value of doing projections a bit too quickly, but it is understandable. I do get that they are very time consuming and end up often not being right or close or whatever. All fair points, particularly the time issue. I definitely agree that if you have limited time, you probably don’t want to go down the road of projections. –But for me, preparing player projections is a great process; one where I learn a lot. It forces me to look at and evaluate a ton more than I would if I didn’t do projections. It’s not so much about how close I am with my numbers for every player as it is about the process and the logical step-by-step analysis I have to put into it. –Admittedly, some wouldn’t benefit from this process like I do… so I understand that this might not be a worthwhile endeavor for many folks… but for me it’s hugely beneficial. Sadly, some year’s I can’t find the time… and I those years I feel much less prepared.

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle when ‘guessing’ what a player might produce for the coming season. Coaching, personnel, schemes, historical production, positional utilization, positional battles, etc., etc. For me, doing my own projections really helps me evaluate these sorts of things at a much deeper level. This is where the real value is, imo.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle when ‘guessing’ what a player might produce for the coming season. Coaching, personnel, schemes, historical production, positional utilization, positional battles, etc., etc. For me, doing my own projections really helps me evaluate these sorts of things at a much deeper level. This is where the real value is, imo.

I absolutely agree w/that.

 

[bagger]

Got some extra time today so I'm embarking on creating my projections for 2012.

Curious, how do you guys create your projections?

Any tips, suggestions, warnings for a first time projector?

the first thing i do is project team stats for offense. then project individuals who are ff relevant and ensure the individual projections do not out produce your team projections. too many people over project for players and do not use appropriate constraints to get to a more realistic number.i take 50% of actual stats from year n-1, 30% from year n-2, and 20% from year n-3.

that is my baseline and then will look at trends in terms of increasing production, decreasing production, adjustments for age, new team, other dynamics, etc.

i would highly suggest using the fbg projections dominator and then adjusting it on your own from there.

you may start to see some fbgs project similarly to you (woodrow seems to mirror my thoughts the most) so you may look to see what they do when you are stumped are use it as a check.

projections are great, and are a great tool for evaluating talent, but at the end of the day it is more about bucketing tiers of talents and drafting players a bit more on gut than pure numbers. ont get overly wrapped up if someone is outproducing another by a point or two a game...none of our projections will ever be that accurate. if there is a better bye week fit, or you feel there is more upside go with the guy who is in the same bucket but may not be mathematically the "best".

also be sure to look at where they are drafted to forego on grabbing the best player in round x if you can get him in round x+1.

 

[moleculo]

Most of what i've done in the past has been covered above. What I do now is average as many current projections as I can find, and then tweak as I see fit. Last year I panicked on Manning maybe not playing, and reduced all Colts by 25%, for example.

Here are a few items to think about, I don't have a good answer for:

1. I think it's impossible to be an expert on 32 teams. It would be great to team up with some folks to share the load, but i've never had any luck finding others to participate.

2. Isn't it better to project on a ppg basis, and how would one find accurate baselines to compare projections to? If a back-up RB plays in every game but becomes the starter in, say week 7, it's tough to develop an algorithm to extract what he did as a starter only without individual game data, which is cumbersome. And even then - what next? Should you assume the original starter stays healthy? What number should you put down for the back-up?

 

[Tanner9919]

I usually look at track record (last 3 seasons or so), changes to current team, and then try to do my own projections without looking elsewhere. Afterwards, if some seem really out of line compared to other sources, I will reconsider and possibly change projections but that all depends. Ive always trusted myself more than others, and its worked.

works for me..I use the FBG draft tool to rank players based on my league's scoring system..I then tweak things from there based on 3-yr avg's, coaching/o-line/personnel changes, who is entering his third season and has shown a steady increase in stats - is he ready for a breakout year - things like that.but I don't go though each and every team player by player and rank things that way..I've never looked at how many offensive plays a team had and try to project team and player stats from that while looking at the upcoming season..often this leads to overhyping..I tend to look at schedules, especially weeks 10-17, the back stretch of the NFL season, to pick and choose who I want to draft and why..fantasy playoff matchups make all the difference..rarely at season's end, does my team resemble the one that I drafted...during the season, I work the waiver wire like a maestro..this is where you hit paydirt - the waiver wire..you find that player early on in the season, one who produces great stats..whether thats a defense ( like the Niners last season - plucked that defense off the waiver wire after week 2) or another position..you also grab the guy(s) late in the season who are heating up, who've got favorable matchups in weeks 13+, fantasy playoff time..

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Also worth mentioning that the FBG Team Reports are live for 2012. Not specifically trying to give you everything needed to do projections, but a good place to find information on the state of a team.

Within 10 seconds I read that Starks will split carries with Ryan Grant. Ryan Grant isn't even under contract to Green Bay and isn't expected to return there either.

 

[GregR]

Also worth mentioning that the FBG Team Reports are live for 2012. Not specifically trying to give you everything needed to do projections, but a good place to find information on the state of a team.

Within 10 seconds I read that Starks will split carries with Ryan Grant. Ryan Grant isn't even under contract to Green Bay and isn't expected to return there either.

Unless Clayton just edited it in the 8 minutes since your post, you misread."Starting RB: James Starks split carries with Ryan Grant last year in this high-octane passing attack and managed only 162 touches in 13 games. He also red zone touches to John Kuhn, managing only one touchdown all season. Late in the year, the Packers also incorporated undrafted free agent rookie Brandon Saine into packages as a receiver from the backfield. Starks may have the lead role with Grant gone, but expect the passing game and the situational rotation of runners, including second-year runner Alex Green, to limit his upside. If Starks earns the confidence of the team to be the full-time feature back in a greater variety of situations, his upside is in the neighborhood of 1,100 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards -- top-25 fantasy stats for a running back, but nothing to build a team around. "

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Also worth mentioning that the FBG Team Reports are live for 2012. Not specifically trying to give you everything needed to do projections, but a good place to find information on the state of a team.

Within 10 seconds I read that Starks will split carries with Ryan Grant. Ryan Grant isn't even under contract to Green Bay and isn't expected to return there either.

Unless Clayton just edited it in the 8 minutes since your post, you misread."Starting RB: James Starks split carries with Ryan Grant last year in this high-octane passing attack and managed only 162 touches in 13 games. He also red zone touches to John Kuhn, managing only one touchdown all season. Late in the year, the Packers also incorporated undrafted free agent rookie Brandon Saine into packages as a receiver from the backfield. Starks may have the lead role with Grant gone, but expect the passing game and the situational rotation of runners, including second-year runner Alex Green, to limit his upside. If Starks earns the confidence of the team to be the full-time feature back in a greater variety of situations, his upside is in the neighborhood of 1,100 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards -- top-25 fantasy stats for a running back, but nothing to build a team around. "

 

[Gawain]

I dont make my own projections. It is way too easy for me to overestimate what every player is going to do in the rosy days of May and June. Instead, I take the averages for offense over the past three years (for instance, the Saints had 5347 passing yards in 2011, the Colts had 4610 in 2010 and the Texans had 4654 in 2009, so my top passing team of 2012 will go down for 4900 or so) and then slot teams in. That way i start with a fairly accurate representation of what the NFL season will look like (though I probably haven't matched correct teams up with spots), before I start to break off yards and TD's for individual players.

 

[koreansteve]

Sorry to bump this topic but I have a new question.

I went through each team/every player and came up with some preliminary projections.

Where do you like to store your projections?

Projections Dominator?

Google Docs?

Excel File?

Draft Dominator?

(I'd rather not spend all my time inserting my projections into 1 of the above only to find it's very difficult to use/manage easily)

 

[GregR]

Sorry to bump this topic but I have a new question.I went through each team/every player and came up with some preliminary projections.Where do you like to store your projections?Projections Dominator?Google Docs?Excel File?Draft Dominator?(I'd rather not spend all my time inserting my projections into 1 of the above only to find it's very difficult to use/manage easily)

You'll get the most use out of them having them in Draft Dominator, but I wouldn't make that the only copy of them (so you don't accidentally hit Update Projections and wipe them out). So anywhere that you can easily update them and get them back into DD would be what I suggest.

 

[geoff8695]

Here's my methodology...1) Pay FBG to do the work. 2) Use their projections/rankings. 3) Shift guys up and down a little based on personal preference and opinion.

This is the most time efficient way for creating your own. However, I would recommend making your own rankings "from the gut", or if you have the time, go ahead and create detailed projections. After you have your own 'unbiased' projections/rankings, then go ahead and compare them to the expert's. This should quickly reveal which players you need to research further, and it will prevent you from completely missing the boat on a player...

I think it's impossible to be an expert on 32 teams.

Keep this in mind, especially if you are relying on expert rankings and tweaking them to fit your own.Using expert rankings is a great starting point, but once you have an understanding of where you disagree, then do some research, and either come to agreement and/or bump players up or down accordingly. Fortunately, FBG staffers are willing to explain their reasoning when asked about a particular player's ranking. Then it is up to you decide how their logic stacks up with your own expectations. Don't be afraid to disagree, but at least be honest with yourself about those disagreements and be flexible enough to change your rankings when your logic is found wanting...

5. Go out and do some research on ADP. Be careful to select quality data when doing this or you will get yourself burned. P.S. Also keep in mind that there is historical turnover averages at each position. Dont get yourslef locked in the herd mentality when doing your projections. For instance in PPR at the WR position, the average turnover in the Top 10 WR from the prior year is in excess of 50% historically. In fact it is closer to 60% for the last decade. When you move out to the top 20 year over year, the average is still somewhere between 40-50%. I have the exact %'s but dont have them with me right now.

Let's be honest here, your best chance of winning occurs when you own players who statistically perform at or near the top of their position (based on your league's scoring system). So it's a good idea to check your rankings just to be sure you aren't slotting top players simply based on the previous season's stats. If your rankings at the top are essentially a carbon copy of last season's finish, then you need to revisit them. Similarly, you should highlight or make note of the players further down your rankings who have the best chance of grossly outperforming their rankings. IF you hit on a few of these guys and get 1st and 2nd round production out of mid to late round picks you are well on your way to winning your league...Finally, look at the latest ADP numbers. Now that you've put in the time to create or tweak rankings to fit your own expectations, then you should follow up on that work by identifying value, and allowing other owners to take players you believe are over-valued. This is your opportunity to make the greatest impact on your draft/auction, and it can save you from making mistakes that will cripple your team or buy you extra picks if/when a guy you think will outproduce his ADP can be had later. Conversely, when you think a guy will outperform his ADP sometimes you have to be willing to overpay or grab him early. Ultimately, these strategic decisions depend upon how well you understand your own league, its scoring system, positional scarcity (tiers), and the tendencies of your competition. A great set of rankings aren't enough to win you your league. You also have to approach the draft/auction with a mindset of identifying where the value lies, and then maximizing it when it's your turn.