How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)

[JackReacher]

Not a physical comp, but I compare his point potential to a guy like Torrey Smith. Stuck in run-first offense but can break off plays anytime and there are no other real receiving options there.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm kinda surprised it took 15 pages to figure out TY is better than DHB. DHB -- great athlete, average WR. TY obviously has the potential to be much more. You would have a strong argument that TYs rookie year was better statistically than any of DHBs 4 prior years.

My concern with HIlton has been raised by a few people -- low percentage routes. At 5'9" and under 180 lbs I just don't see him running many over the middle, under 10-12 yards. Desean Jackson'esque will probably lead to some 3-40 type of lines, but hopefully they'll find some creative ways to get him the ball in space.

yes, a possesion WR he is not.

But his big games will make up for his 2/25 games.

I think his consistency will be better without Wayne in there, DHB, Griff & Fleener arent that good. So I think the increase in targets will make up for his incosistency and smooth it out some

 

[JackReacher]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

 

[cstu]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

14 games under 50 yards.

8 games over 100 yards (highest was 124).

1 game with 78 yards.

 

[CariocaSean]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

14 games under 50 yards.

8 games over 100 yards (highest was 124).

1 game with 78 yards.

Should be interesting to see if the boom/bust trend continues now that Hilton is being forced into a more significant role.

 

[zoonation]

Hilton's production numbers before Wayne went down should obviously be tossed out the window. The guy will be a target machine going forward and has basically stepped into the WR1 role.

past history is not a predictor of future success when the variables are changed this drastically.

This guy is going to light it up the rest of the way.

 

[Hoss Style]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

14 games under 50 yards.

8 games over 100 yards (highest was 124).

1 game with 78 yards.

Not sure if you were posting these numbers as a positive for T.Y. or negative, or maybe just posting some facts.

I'll just add in that for a #2 WR on a team, those are FANTASTIC numbers.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of another #2 with better numbers (maybe Decker? less 100s but more 50 to 80ish yard games?). And certainly can't think of a better #2 WR in only his second year.

I'm looking foward to see how Indy can use T.Y. the rest of this year.

 

[Shutout]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

14 games under 50 yards.

8 games over 100 yards (highest was 124).

1 game with 78 yards.

Not sure if you were posting these numbers as a positive for T.Y. or negative, or maybe you just wanted to post some facts.

I'll just add in that for a #2 WR on a team, those are FANTASTIC numbers.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of another #2 with better numbers (maybe Decker? less 100s but more 50 to 80ish yard games?). And certainly can't think of a better #2 WR in only his second year.

I'm looking foward to see how Indy can use T.Y. the rest of this year.

Really good take on it when you think of it as compared to other "#2s" in the league. We are all thinking of it in terms of fantasy but when you outline the real-life activity, it appears very promising. This is a 23 year old, 2nd year receiver who has been asked to play a specific role. That role just got a lot bigger. Now let's see what it looks like going forward because, if he does well, that role may be able to be kept due to Wayne's age.

 

[cstu]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

14 games under 50 yards.

8 games over 100 yards (highest was 124).

1 game with 78 yards.

Not sure if you were posting these numbers as a positive for T.Y. or negative, or maybe just posting some facts.

I'll just add in that for a #2 WR on a team, those are FANTASTIC numbers.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of another #2 with better numbers (maybe Decker? less 100s but more 50 to 80ish yard games?). And certainly can't think of a better #2 WR in only his second year.

I'm looking foward to see how Indy can use T.Y. the rest of this year.

Just facts. I expect high end #2 the rest of the season.

 

[gianmarco]

 

[Hoss Style]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

 

[massraider]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

Believe he's in the pro-Hilton camp.

if he's still coming into this thread, you gotta figure he was on the Hilton train.

I assume the DHB camp is just hoping this thread dies a quiet death.

Bump, Bumperino.

 

[gianmarco]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

 

[Raider Nation]

My projections for the guys in question are;

DHB;

60 reception, 960 yds, 6 TDs

Hilton;

55 receptions, 880 yds, 5 TDs

Wow, we couldn't disagree any more. I'll go....

DHB: 45-510-4

Hilton: 68-1140-11

So you guys are also projecting a Wayne season ending injury I take it, lol.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

 

[Hoss Style]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Sure, it's fine. I just really didn't know what your aim was and didn't want to search your post history, so I asked. I've seen people use the coffee emoticon when they were correct and also when they were wrong and wanted to admit it by saying "nothing to see here".

No offense intended.

 

[jurb26]

As. More and more of the Indy offense falls apart, injuries and now the oline, the more I'm liking Hilton and.... Gulp D. Brown.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I'm in a somewhat shallow league and I need WR help but I just cut DHB yesterday after watching him play again. He has/had opportunity, he's got the body and the wheels but simply he's a receiver who can't receive. I've drank his kool-aid since Oakland but I don't know how you fix such fundamentally bad hands once a guy gets a few years into the NFL. Damn shame too but I will not go down in the fantasy playoffs watching balls bounce off his numbers

 

[JuniorNB]

As. More and more of the Indy offense falls apart, injuries and now the oline, the more I'm liking Hilton and.... Gulp D. Brown.

I knew you'd come around. Be honest, have you dropped DHB yet?

 

[jurb26]

As. More and more of the Indy offense falls apart, injuries and now the oline, the more I'm liking Hilton and.... Gulp D. Brown.

I knew you'd come around. Be honest, have you dropped DHB yet?

Only had him in one league, which is a deep league. So no. I just never play him.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

 

[maf005]

What are people's concerns with TY? That he's small? Well with the current NFL rules we really can't write off small WRs like in year's past.

 

[massraider]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

 

[Bayhawks]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

I think this thread has revolved around several different points, as it has evolved.

1-Was Hilton "over-valued" in this year's drafts?

2-Was DHB a "better value" than Hilton in this year's drafts?

I think an argument can be made that the answer could be both Yes and No for each question.

Hilton's higher draft slot was predicated on him improving on his numbers from last year, theoretically by becoming the full-time WR2, getting more PT, therefore more targets, more receptions, more yards, more TD, etc. The fact is, that despite appearing to be more "talented" than DHB, he wasn't getting WR2 snaps, targets, receptions, etc for the first 7 games. So, an argument could be made that he was over-valued. But right now, he is getting that PT, and the receptions, yards, TDs that go with it. So, an argument could be made that he is (or will be) worth the pick used on him.

With regard to DHB, he was going in the late 13th round, on average. While he hasn't been outstanding, he has been adequate two weeks (PPR league-weeks 3 & 7). Maybe you played him those weeks, in which case his 13th/14th round draft pick was useful. That being said, getting two adequate weeks out of a 13th/14th round pick might represent value, but probably didn't significantly impact your FF team, so arguments could be made for both sides there.

What seems to be true (although a limited sample) is that Hilton is doing well as a WR1. This should bode well for his future in Indy, whether Wayne comes back (and Hilton becomes the WR2), or even if he doesn't.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

As of week 7 Hilton was on pace for 941 yards and 4.5 TDs. If he finished with exactly those numbers he would have put up the 28th best season for a WR last season, which is exactly WR2/3 numbers. And that's assuming Hilton's numbers weren't going to increase some during the later part of the season with the presence of Wayne anyway.

 

[massraider]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

I think this thread has revolved around several different points, as it has evolved.

1-Was Hilton "over-valued" in this year's drafts?

2-Was DHB a "better value" than Hilton in this year's drafts?

I think an argument can be made that the answer could be both Yes and No for each question.

Hilton's higher draft slot was predicated on him improving on his numbers from last year, theoretically by becoming the full-time WR2, getting more PT, therefore more targets, more receptions, more yards, more TD, etc. The fact is, that despite appearing to be more "talented" than DHB, he wasn't getting WR2 snaps, targets, receptions, etc for the first 7 games. So, an argument could be made that he was over-valued. But right now, he is getting that PT, and the receptions, yards, TDs that go with it. So, an argument could be made that he is (or will be) worth the pick used on him.

With regard to DHB, he was going in the late 13th round, on average. While he hasn't been outstanding, he has been adequate two weeks (PPR league-weeks 3 & 7). Maybe you played him those weeks, in which case his 13th/14th round draft pick was useful. That being said, getting two adequate weeks out of a 13th/14th round pick might represent value, but probably didn't significantly impact your FF team, so arguments could be made for both sides there.

What seems to be true (although a limited sample) is that Hilton is doing well as a WR1. This should bode well for his future in Indy, whether Wayne comes back (and Hilton becomes the WR2), or even if he doesn't.

There can be no argument that DHB was a better value. There just can't. You could pluck a WR off the wire any week, and you had a good chance that that scrub was going to outperform DHB. Hilton was a WR3 at worst, and really, the number of snaps he had, or whether he was on the field when the Colts were running the ball really doesn't matter. When it was time to pass, Hilton was on the field, and he performed. DHB was too, and the only advantage he has over Hilton is that when Luck does throw it to DHB, it's a higher percentage pass, a screen or hitch (the further DHB gets from the QB, the more pointless it is to throw it to him). Wayne got hurt should benefit DHB as well, shouldn't it? Somehow, I don't think it will.

As of right this second, drafting Hilton as a WR2 wasn't a good value. Anyone want to bet that it will still look as bad in 6 weeks?

 

[pizzatyme]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

I think this thread has revolved around several different points, as it has evolved.

1-Was Hilton "over-valued" in this year's drafts?

2-Was DHB a "better value" than Hilton in this year's drafts?

I think an argument can be made that the answer could be both Yes and No for each question.

Hilton's higher draft slot was predicated on him improving on his numbers from last year, theoretically by becoming the full-time WR2, getting more PT, therefore more targets, more receptions, more yards, more TD, etc. The fact is, that despite appearing to be more "talented" than DHB, he wasn't getting WR2 snaps, targets, receptions, etc for the first 7 games. So, an argument could be made that he was over-valued. But right now, he is getting that PT, and the receptions, yards, TDs that go with it. So, an argument could be made that he is (or will be) worth the pick used on him.

With regard to DHB, he was going in the late 13th round, on average. While he hasn't been outstanding, he has been adequate two weeks (PPR league-weeks 3 & 7). Maybe you played him those weeks, in which case his 13th/14th round draft pick was useful. That being said, getting two adequate weeks out of a 13th/14th round pick might represent value, but probably didn't significantly impact your FF team, so arguments could be made for both sides there.

What seems to be true (although a limited sample) is that Hilton is doing well as a WR1. This should bode well for his future in Indy, whether Wayne comes back (and Hilton becomes the WR2), or even if he doesn't.

There can be no argument that DHB was a better value. There just can't. You could pluck a WR off the wire any week, and you had a good chance that that scrub was going to outperform DHB. Hilton was a WR3 at worst, and really, the number of snaps he had, or whether he was on the field when the Colts were running the ball really doesn't matter. When it was time to pass, Hilton was on the field, and he performed. DHB was too, and the only advantage he has over Hilton is that when Luck does throw it to DHB, it's a higher percentage pass, a screen or hitch (the further DHB gets from the QB, the more pointless it is to throw it to him). Wayne got hurt should benefit DHB as well, shouldn't it? Somehow, I don't think it will.

As of right this second, drafting Hilton as a WR2 wasn't a good value. Anyone want to bet that it will still look as bad in 6 weeks?

While it probably won't be bad, there is no guarantee that it'll be great. The Colts are in real trouble here. Without Wayne, opposing defense have little to worry about in the Colts offense. There will continue to be blanket coverage on TY and make the other options beat them. With the Colts inability to run the ball, and with Wayne out, this team is an easy out in the post-season. And this comes from a Colts fan.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

Unfortunately, your if and buts game doesn't work because some of us do our homework and knew that Pep Hamilton did not run anything resembling Arians' deep passing game. So it is just downright stupid to expect him to magically convert to a 3 wide system and it is just pitiful that people who don't do their homework feel the need to cry about something they should have seen coming.

Had Allen and Wayne remained healthy, Hilton would have been an under performer. Instead, two injuries later, you guys act like you saw this coming. Give me a break. A couple lucky breaks were caught. Not exactly a chest thumping victory. It is the billiards equivalent of calling a corner pocket and bouncing it off of two rails into a side pocket and then talking smack. No one is impressed.

 

[bostonfred]

As of week 7 Hilton was on pace for 941 yards and 4.5 TDs. If he finished with exactly those numbers he would have put up the 28th best season for a WR last season, which is exactly WR2/3 numbers. And that's assuming Hilton's numbers weren't going to increase some during the later part of the season with the presence of Wayne anyway.

If you get 941 and 4.5 tds from your wr3 spot in most leagues, you aren't picking up ground on your competition. You might technically have a wr3, but the reality is that other teams have guys like kenbrell thompkins, nate washington, jerome simpson, harry douglas, boykin, riley cooper, or some other flavor of the week. There's usually a couple of those guys who are hot at any given time, and starting a mediocre scrub the whole season instead of mining the waiver wire costs you points that you need to pick up at some other position to make up for it. Hilton is now a flavor of the week. The exciting thing about him right now is that he has that rare combination of talent and opportunity, so this looks sustainable. He's got deep speed, he's getting plenty of targets, and he is a guy that indy wants to build around for the future, so they have no motivation to put the reins on him somewhere down the line. But before the wayne injury, he was having a mediocre fantasy season and was a pure upside play who shouldn't have been in your everyday lineup except for bye weeks or injuries.

That's not a knock on people who owned him. He found one of the several paths that led to his upside. Wayne could also have lost a step, or dhb could have gotten hurt, or hilton could have had back to back big weeks, or luck could have spent their bye week working out together and becoming besties, or any of a number of things. As it turns out, the thing that happened was wayne got hurt, but he was an upside play. The specific way he reached his upside is only relevant when trying to estimate the odds of other players reaching their upside in next years draft. This time next year, we may be saying that riley cooper is an upside play because he has to get playing time around maclin and jackson, or that boykin is an upside play because of cobb, jones and nelson, and it helps to consider what their paths to starterhood look like when you're deciding who is more likely to help you in 2014.

The fact that we blew half a page of this thread discussing what the appropriate reasons for bumping a thread with a cup of coffee smiley, and that the assumption was that he should only bump the thread because he wanted people to see his good call or because he wanted to proactively eat crow about his bad call - that's just embarrassing. Who cares if some guy made a good call or a bad call in the past? Give me your reasoning for making your picks so I can improve my process.

 

[Bayhawks]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

I think this thread has revolved around several different points, as it has evolved.

1-Was Hilton "over-valued" in this year's drafts?

2-Was DHB a "better value" than Hilton in this year's drafts?

I think an argument can be made that the answer could be both Yes and No for each question.

Hilton's higher draft slot was predicated on him improving on his numbers from last year, theoretically by becoming the full-time WR2, getting more PT, therefore more targets, more receptions, more yards, more TD, etc. The fact is, that despite appearing to be more "talented" than DHB, he wasn't getting WR2 snaps, targets, receptions, etc for the first 7 games. So, an argument could be made that he was over-valued. But right now, he is getting that PT, and the receptions, yards, TDs that go with it. So, an argument could be made that he is (or will be) worth the pick used on him.

With regard to DHB, he was going in the late 13th round, on average. While he hasn't been outstanding, he has been adequate two weeks (PPR league-weeks 3 & 7). Maybe you played him those weeks, in which case his 13th/14th round draft pick was useful. That being said, getting two adequate weeks out of a 13th/14th round pick might represent value, but probably didn't significantly impact your FF team, so arguments could be made for both sides there.

What seems to be true (although a limited sample) is that Hilton is doing well as a WR1. This should bode well for his future in Indy, whether Wayne comes back (and Hilton becomes the WR2), or even if he doesn't.

There can be no argument that DHB was a better value. There just can't. You could pluck a WR off the wire any week, and you had a good chance that that scrub was going to outperform DHB. Hilton was a WR3 at worst, and really, the number of snaps he had, or whether he was on the field when the Colts were running the ball really doesn't matter. When it was time to pass, Hilton was on the field, and he performed. DHB was too, and the only advantage he has over Hilton is that when Luck does throw it to DHB, it's a higher percentage pass, a screen or hitch (the further DHB gets from the QB, the more pointless it is to throw it to him). Wayne got hurt should benefit DHB as well, shouldn't it? Somehow, I don't think it will.

As of right this second, drafting Hilton as a WR2 wasn't a good value. Anyone want to bet that it will still look as bad in 6 weeks?

Yes, there can. Sure, in hindsight, you can say "you could pluck a WR off the wire any week," but the reality is that you don't know ahead of time who is going to put up points in a given week off the WW.

DHB's 2 best games were week 3 and week 7. The "hottest" WW WRs picked up in my main league after week 2 were Julian Edelman and Eddie Royal. DHB out-scored both of them in week 3. The "hottest" WW WRs picked up in my main league after week 6 were Sidney Rice, Riley Cooper, Jarret Boykins, & Jacoby Jones. DHB outscored all but Boykins in week 7.

Again, if you get two startable weeks out of your 13th/14th round pick, that is value. You need more out of a 6th/7th round pick.

 

[Bayhawks]

Just curious - this thread's been going forever and I don't feel like searching your posts through 15 pages. Are you saying an "I told you so" here? Or do you just like coffee and decided to post that?

I haven't posted much in this thread but I've posted about him since last year and definitely a fan of his. My post was a bump after his day today since no one else had come in just yet. Is that ok?

Don't be such a sensitive little baby. The guy was just asking. And your sig is too long.

I dislike long sigs, but that one is a classic and he's doing a public service by displaying it.

As for the coffee bump, I don't think Hilton hypers should be smug. It is pretty clear that while DHB didn't outplay him this year, Hilton was not a good draft pick until Wayne got injured which no one could have predicted. Through 7 games he had only cracked 50 yards twice and only scored in 1 game. He was drafted as a WR2/3 and was averaging WR4 numbers.

One could predict that he wasn't going to put up consistent numbers, because he was a deep threat that gets his yardage in chunks. But when he did put up numbers, he would put up big numbers. Which he did.

One could predict that DHB wasn't going to perform well. Not everyone, but some ones.

As a WR3, he is going to turn out to be a major steal for his owners, if he stays healthy.

You wanna play the ifs and buts game, no problem. If the IND offensive coordinator had pulled his head out of his culo before the season started, he would have been flinging it around with 3 wides all year, instead of trying to be the 1964 Packers, and Hilton would have been killing it all year.

The premise of the thread came down to how much would DHB hurt Hilton's numbers. Answer?? DHB makes an excellent blocking fullback, sucks balls as a WR, and Hilton is a dangerous weapon, and an exceptional WR3.

Best the DHB camp can do now is claim that Hilton was a bad choice when he was taken as a WR2. WR4 numbers? Yeah, no.

Unfortunately, your if and buts game doesn't work because some of us do our homework and knew that Pep Hamilton did not run anything resembling Arians' deep passing game. So it is just downright stupid to expect him to magically convert to a 3 wide system and it is just pitiful that people who don't do their homework feel the need to cry about something they should have seen coming.

Had Allen and Wayne remained healthy, Hilton would have been an under performer. Instead, two injuries later, you guys act like you saw this coming. Give me a break. A couple lucky breaks were caught. Not exactly a chest thumping victory. It is the billiards equivalent of calling a corner pocket and bouncing it off of two rails into a side pocket and then talking smack. No one is impressed.

Your point is very valid, but a number of people posted in this thread that they realized that Hamilton's offense wasn't the same as Arians, and they saw that DHB was listed ahead of Hilton on the depth chart & they believed that Hilton's talent would win out over DHB's blocking skills.

And yes, the injuries to Allen and Wayne did alter the situation (although I wouldn't call them lucky breaks), but Hilton, when given this opportunity the last 2 weeks, has demonstrated (again, over a small sample size) that he has the talent to succeed in a WR1 role.

So, while the injuries did precipitate Hilton's "promotion" to WR1, his talent seems to verify that he isn't mis-cast in that role, which was part of many arguments made in the pre-season.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

As of week 7 Hilton was on pace for 941 yards and 4.5 TDs. If he finished with exactly those numbers he would have put up the 28th best season for a WR last season, which is exactly WR2/3 numbers. And that's assuming Hilton's numbers weren't going to increase some during the later part of the season with the presence of Wayne anyway.

If you get 941 and 4.5 tds from your wr3 spot in most leagues, you aren't picking up ground on your competition. You might technically have a wr3, but the reality is that other teams have guys like kenbrell thompkins, nate washington, jerome simpson, harry douglas, boykin, riley cooper, or some other flavor of the week. There's usually a couple of those guys who are hot at any given time, and starting a mediocre scrub the whole season instead of mining the waiver wire costs you points that you need to pick up at some other position to make up for it.

Good luck on starting guys like Kenbrell Thompkins on their 6/127/1td games and not on their 3/16/0td games. The difficulty with guys like that is that a good portion of the time you're chasing points, starting them after a good week only to get a crap week the game after. It's tremendously difficult to determine when when the hot streak will end, or even if it'll be much of a hot streak at all.

But when you're drafting in July/August, you don't spend your 6th/7th round pick on a player who you hope will put up WR1 numbers for a 2-3 week stretch and then duds the rest of the year, you spend it on a player who you expect to be in the top 20-40 WRs at the end of the year and who has upside for more. That's exactly what every Hilton owner has got.

 

[FF Ninja]

Your point is very valid, but a number of people posted in this thread that they realized that Hamilton's offense wasn't the same as Arians, and they saw that DHB was listed ahead of Hilton on the depth chart & they believed that Hilton's talent would win out over DHB's blocking skills.And yes, the injuries to Allen and Wayne did alter the situation (although I wouldn't call them lucky breaks), but Hilton, when given this opportunity the last 2 weeks, has demonstrated (again, over a small sample size) that he has the talent to succeed in a WR1 role.

So, while the injuries did precipitate Hilton's "promotion" to WR1, his talent seems to verify that he isn't mis-cast in that role, which was part of many arguments made in the pre-season.

They were lucky breaks for people who invested unwisely in Hilton. Had that not occurred, Hilton would still be seeing very limited snaps. Personally, I avoided Hilton for two reasons: drops and situation (new offense and listed as WR3). People drafting him were clearly ignoring the situation and just blindly expecting it to work itself out - in both style of offense and his position on the depth chart. These people were bailed out by injuries and now act like they called their shot. It's just kind of silly to watch. Looking forward to the reaction when Indy signs Nicks or somebody...

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Bottom line: Hilton beat out DHB and it wasn't close. DHB was a bust draft pick (for your fantasy team and for the Raiders) and presented pretty much no value even in late rounds. If he was your WR4 or 5, you should have been filling that spot with better upside opportunities (player or defense) or handcuffs.

As a rookie, he put up 5 100 yard games. Since about Game 9 last year, his rookie season, he has looked like keeper-league gold.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Your point is very valid, but a number of people posted in this thread that they realized that Hamilton's offense wasn't the same as Arians, and they saw that DHB was listed ahead of Hilton on the depth chart & they believed that Hilton's talent would win out over DHB's blocking skills.And yes, the injuries to Allen and Wayne did alter the situation (although I wouldn't call them lucky breaks), but Hilton, when given this opportunity the last 2 weeks, has demonstrated (again, over a small sample size) that he has the talent to succeed in a WR1 role.

So, while the injuries did precipitate Hilton's "promotion" to WR1, his talent seems to verify that he isn't mis-cast in that role, which was part of many arguments made in the pre-season.

They were lucky breaks for people who invested unwisely in Hilton. Had that not occurred, Hilton would still be seeing very limited snaps. Personally, I avoided Hilton for two reasons: drops and situation (new offense and listed as WR3). People drafting him were clearly ignoring the situation and just blindly expecting it to work itself out - in both style of offense and his position on the depth chart. These people were bailed out by injuries and now act like they called their shot. It's just kind of silly to watch. Looking forward to the reaction when Indy signs Nicks or somebody...

you sound bitter. let me guess you been backing DHB all thread

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Your point is very valid, but a number of people posted in this thread that they realized that Hamilton's offense wasn't the same as Arians, and they saw that DHB was listed ahead of Hilton on the depth chart & they believed that Hilton's talent would win out over DHB's blocking skills.And yes, the injuries to Allen and Wayne did alter the situation (although I wouldn't call them lucky breaks), but Hilton, when given this opportunity the last 2 weeks, has demonstrated (again, over a small sample size) that he has the talent to succeed in a WR1 role.

So, while the injuries did precipitate Hilton's "promotion" to WR1, his talent seems to verify that he isn't mis-cast in that role, which was part of many arguments made in the pre-season.

They were lucky breaks for people who invested unwisely in Hilton. Had that not occurred, Hilton would still be seeing very limited snaps. Personally, I avoided Hilton for two reasons: drops and situation (new offense and listed as WR3). People drafting him were clearly ignoring the situation and just blindly expecting it to work itself out - in both style of offense and his position on the depth chart. These people were bailed out by injuries and now act like they called their shot. It's just kind of silly to watch. Looking forward to the reaction when Indy signs Nicks or somebody...

You analyzed the situation and missed, badly. It happens.

 

[massraider]

Telling us what would have happened if not for lucky breaks is simply comical.

 

[FF Ninja]

you sound bitter. let me guess you been backing DHB all thread

My season was ruined in the one league where I drafted DHB as my WR5 (16 team). So bitter.

You analyzed the situation and missed, badly. It happens.

Um, nope. See below.

Telling us what would have happened if not for lucky breaks is simply comical.

I don't have to tell you. We can all look at the game logs for the first 7 weeks. 5 of which were duds for Hilton owners.

 

[bostonfred]

As of week 7 Hilton was on pace for 941 yards and 4.5 TDs. If he finished with exactly those numbers he would have put up the 28th best season for a WR last season, which is exactly WR2/3 numbers. And that's assuming Hilton's numbers weren't going to increase some during the later part of the season with the presence of Wayne anyway.

If you get 941 and 4.5 tds from your wr3 spot in most leagues, you aren't picking up ground on your competition. You might technically have a wr3, but the reality is that other teams have guys like kenbrell thompkins, nate washington, jerome simpson, harry douglas, boykin, riley cooper, or some other flavor of the week. There's usually a couple of those guys who are hot at any given time, and starting a mediocre scrub the whole season instead of mining the waiver wire costs you points that you need to pick up at some other position to make up for it.

Good luck on starting guys like Kenbrell Thompkins on their 6/127/1td games and not on their 3/16/0td games. The difficulty with guys like that is that a good portion of the time you're chasing points, starting them after a good week only to get a crap week the game after. It's tremendously difficult to determine when when the hot streak will end, or even if it'll be much of a hot streak at all.

But when you're drafting in July/August, you don't spend your 6th/7th round pick on a player who you hope will put up WR1 numbers for a 2-3 week stretch and then duds the rest of the year, you spend it on a player who you expect to be in the top 20-40 WRs at the end of the year and who has upside for more. That's exactly what every Hilton owner has got.

First, let me start by saying that I agree with almost everything you wrote here, and while your tone implies that you're disagreeing with what I wrote, I think we're saying the same things. If you read the full post, and not just the paragraph you quoted, I refer to Hilton as an upside play who had several paths to upside, and that a Wayne injury was one of them.

Second, I agree that the "hot WR" strategy works until it doesn't. Sometimes you take the hot WR and they have a couple weeks in a row of sustained production. Sometimes they come crashing down to earth and you're not sure who to start and you end up playing the wrong guys. I think we can all agree that it would be ideal if all of your starters were unbenchable studs, but absent that, most of us will be fishing for WR3s or flex plays from time to time. And while you can't guarantee that you'll start the right guy week after week, somebody in your league probably will, in hindsight, do a lot better than 900 yards and 4 TDs.

And in a lot of cases, there's a legitimate discussion of when to start these guys - people didn't talk up Cooper until Foles became the starter again, and the ones who were in dire enough straits to start him that week were rewarded in a big way. People talked up Edelman after week 1, and he was a PPR machine for the first half of the season, but nobody's starting him anymore, because Amendola and Gronk are back and Dobson's still healthy. People talked up Harry Douglas as soon as Julio went down, because who else is going to catch balls from Matt Ryan? Guess what, he was good right away. Same thing with Boykin once Cobb and Jones went down. And he produced, too. Some times those guys miss, but all of the ones I mentioned were hot pickups, and they all did well. You only need to start one Riley Cooper or Marvin Jones and then you have 15 weeks to make up the other 700 yards and a TD on the guy who started a 900/4 receiver for the full year and said look at me, I have a WR30.

That's not to say that WR30 is a bad player. A guy who has a floor of WR30 and upside to be top ten or fifteen is definitely worth having. The thing I think is worth discussing, though, is how valuable those guys are. I've almost never ended up with the TY Hilton's of the world, because I feel like you're paying a premium to get a guy who is WR30 with upside, as opposed to a guy who is WR50 with upside. In most league formats, I'll take WR50 with upside, because I don't want to start WR30. It's nice to have one guy who can hold the fort while you wait for that hot receiver - for me, this year, I usually ended up with Lance Moore, and that's worked out terribly so far, so I'm not tooting my own horn. But Hilton was also a pretty early pick this year, so the question that I'm interested in is whether he was undervalued or overvalued.

If you said there was a 20% chance Wayne got hurt (because he's old or something), and a 25% chance that Hilton outplayed DHB and got the starting gig on his own, and a 15% chance that DHB got hurt and Hilton was forced into the WR2 role, and you felt that any of those events would be enough for you to start him (and for him to be worth starting), then you're looking at a guy who has a 60% chance of being startable at some point in the season. I don't know about you, but I'd love to draft a guy who had a 60% chance of being a stud WR. I think that's the upside people saw when drafting him.

But now you have to factor in how long it takes for those things to happen - unless Wayne or DHB gets hurt week 1, or T.Y. has a monster preseason, the odds are pretty good that you're going to be waiting, what, a month? Maybe two months? So now we're talking about a guy who has a 60% chance of giving you a half season or so of production. And until then, he's sitting on his WR30 pace, maybe even convincing you to spot start him after his big week, then bench him when he sucks the next week. Those guys will kill you. And that was a real concern back in August/September - Hilton was listed as third on the depth chart, DHB was getting talked up a little, they still had two good young tight ends, and a pass catching back in Bradshaw, and their new coordinator was talking about running the ball more.

I don't care about Hilton and I'm not here to crow about being right or to eat crow for being wrong. But I'm very interested in the thought process that goes in to successful drafting, and in this case, I think what I see is a guy who had a floor that was above average but not worth starting, with several paths to upside. Compare that with a guy like Edelman, who had a clear path to PPR upside if Amendola went down. Edelman arguably had an easier path to the starting gig, and certainly not much worse, but he was left on waivers in most leagues, or was a late round pick in deeper leagues, while Hilton was drafted early. Why? Because Hilton was going to get you WR30 numbers while you waited around for him to get his shot? That's not a good reason to draft someone ten or fifteen rounds earlier than a similar player. Which is why I generally don't end up with T.Y. Hiltons.

I say this as someone who traded for Hilton - and paid a good price to get him - in a dynasty league as soon as Wayne went down. I think he is and will remain a stud in Indy for a long time. But the price I paid to get him once he had his good news wasn't that much higher than the price I would have had to pay to get him before the season started, and I got the benefit of waiting for information (in this case, Wayne's injury) instead of paying in advance for upside that might never materialize. There's lots of guys with upside that you can piece together throughout the season, so missing out on his WR30 pace doesn't really matter. I'd almost always rather draft established players in the early rounds and acquire cheap upside in the later rounds, than pay for expensive upside in the early rounds.

 

[Bayhawks]

Your point is very valid, but a number of people posted in this thread that they realized that Hamilton's offense wasn't the same as Arians, and they saw that DHB was listed ahead of Hilton on the depth chart & they believed that Hilton's talent would win out over DHB's blocking skills.And yes, the injuries to Allen and Wayne did alter the situation (although I wouldn't call them lucky breaks), but Hilton, when given this opportunity the last 2 weeks, has demonstrated (again, over a small sample size) that he has the talent to succeed in a WR1 role.

So, while the injuries did precipitate Hilton's "promotion" to WR1, his talent seems to verify that he isn't mis-cast in that role, which was part of many arguments made in the pre-season.

They were lucky breaks for people who invested unwisely in Hilton. Had that not occurred, Hilton would still be seeing very limited snaps. Personally, I avoided Hilton for two reasons: drops and situation (new offense and listed as WR3). People drafting him were clearly ignoring the situation and just blindly expecting it to work itself out - in both style of offense and his position on the depth chart. These people were bailed out by injuries and now act like they called their shot. It's just kind of silly to watch. Looking forward to the reaction when Indy signs Nicks or somebody...

I understand why you called them lucky. I was referring to the fact that two guys were lost for the year as to why I don't consider them lucky.

Again, many owners drafted Hilton because they believe in his talent. Perhaps his talent would have earned him the #2 role over DHB in week 8, 10, or 16; maybe not at all. The fact is that it appears that their belief was well-founded, even if it took a couple of unpredictable situations to prove their points.

Obviously if anyone claims that they "KNEW" Wayne/Allen would get hurt and that's why they drafted Hilton, they're talking out of their @_ _. However, their belief in his talent does appear to have been justified (again, with a small sample size)

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

you sound bitter. let me guess you been backing DHB all thread

My season was ruined in the one league where I drafted DHB as my WR5 (16 team). So bitter.

You analyzed the situation and missed, badly. It happens.

Um, nope. See below.

Telling us what would have happened if not for lucky breaks is simply comical.

I don't have to tell you. We can all look at the game logs for the first 7 weeks. 5 of which were duds for Hilton owners.

You should see TOs stats early in his career when Jerry was running the show. I just looked them up. Pretty bad.

We see it frequently. A good, maybe great receiver (or TE, or RB) gives way to the next guy. Hell, it even happened in Indy. Harrison eventually gave way to Wayne.

Fantasy is, in part, about anticipating the possibility of that opportunity. Those that did are getting rewarded right now. Will it last? Maybe, maybe not. But few are in a better position to take advantage of a golden opportunity than Hilton.

 

[VikingFrog]

Does TY Hilton continue his streak of high performance games tonight?

The loss of Wayne has really pushed him into the spotlight, but he faces a decent Titans secondary on a short week.

Thoughts on production tonight?

 

[Jimbo Slice]

I don't think he goes 7/100 whatever again. But with dez on bye, he's in my lineup, as I would think he's in most peoples despite the concerns with tenn secondary

 

[VikingFrog]

I don't think he goes 7/100 whatever again. But with dez on bye, he's in my lineup, as I would think he's in most peoples despite the concerns with tenn secondary

I too am concerned about the Tennessee defense. But, Many rankings have him penciled above guys like K Allen and Josh Gordon. What am I missing?

 

[Shutout]

Very tough one because the Titans don't allow Wrs to score (haven't allowed one in 2 months it seems).

But you gotta think that Hilton is going to be looked at often. I am probably starting him over Tate this week and I know that might bite me.

 

[Sabertooth]

Anyone concerned about Rogers being activated?

 

[CentralPA]

I'm starting him over Allen in PPR. I think he's going to get a ton of targets and even though he might no get TD he should catch plenty of balls and get some decent yardage.

 

[LawFitz]

Don't sleep on Da'Rick. Unlike everyone else not named Hilton on the Colts WR corps, Rogers has size and talent catching the football. There is a vacuum here at WR2 for Mr. Luck, especially considering Allen's out and Fleener is a bum.

 

[White Lightning]

This comes from the Colts website so take with a grain of salt, but a good read nonetheless.

14 games under 50 yards.

8 games over 100 yards (highest was 124).

1 game with 78 yards.

Not sure if you were posting these numbers as a positive for T.Y. or negative, or maybe just posting some facts.

I'll just add in that for a #2 WR on a team, those are FANTASTIC numbers.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of another #2 with better numbers (maybe Decker? less 100s but more 50 to 80ish yard games?). And certainly can't think of a better #2 WR in only his second year.

I'm looking foward to see how Indy can use T.Y. the rest of this year.

Alshon Jeffery

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I don't think he goes 7/100 whatever again. But with dez on bye, he's in my lineup, as I would think he's in most peoples despite the concerns with tenn secondary

rest of the year he dont break 100 yards?