How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)

[ponchsox]

DHB is probably a free agent in a lot of leagues. I may grab him as a Hilton owner.

 

[cstu]

Aren't we getting a little too caught up in the "starter" tag for DHB? This is similar to an NBA 6th man like Jason Terry who isn't a "starter" but ends up getting more minutes than the starter.

Does anyone actually think Hilton will get less snaps than DHB?

Yes?

Barring injury, I'm starting to have trouble imagining it any other way.

That's the crux of it, I think. The lack of opportunity.

(2-wide sets + 3-wide sets) > 3-wide sets only.

Looks like more or less a redux of last year with Avery, with different personnel in place.

This is absolutely right. If the Colts continue to have DHB play in 2-WR sets, he will get more snaps than Hilton; however, as the article that is being cited suggests, the reason DHB is the #2 is because he's a better blocker. None of my FF leagues gives WR points for blocks, so if he gets 20% more snaps than Hilton, but he's a blocker on those snaps, that doesn't add to his FF value, IMO.

Last year, Avery got more snaps than Hilton, but Hilton was more valuable, FF-speaking. Even if DHB remains the "#2," I think Hilton will produce more FF points.

This is all true. The only question is by how much will Hilton outscore DHB.

 

[ponchsox]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

 

[We Tigers]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

 

[HurryUpSundays]

But, but... Matt Berry has just named TY a top 15 receiver?!

 

[massraider]

Aren't we getting a little too caught up in the "starter" tag for DHB? This is similar to an NBA 6th man like Jason Terry who isn't a "starter" but ends up getting more minutes than the starter.

Does anyone actually think Hilton will get less snaps than DHB?

Yes?

Barring injury, I'm starting to have trouble imagining it any other way.

That's the crux of it, I think. The lack of opportunity.

(2-wide sets + 3-wide sets) > 3-wide sets only.

Looks like more or less a redux of last year with Avery, with different personnel in place.

Yeah, but if you compare Hilton to Avery, it doesn't help the pro-DHB argument.

Of course, this isn't an either/or. Because you can get DHB 8 rounds later. It's more about how much the new offense hinders Hilton's snaps/numbers.

Just throwing this out there, but the PLAN may be to become a lot more balance,( and really, Indy almost HAS to become more balanced, it'd be tough to be LESS balanced), but what if Bradshaw isn't the goods, and the defense lets up points at a scary clip? it's not tough to envision Indy putting the ball in Luck's hands, and say, 'we gonna have to win like we did with Peyton for 15-whatever years, by airing it out.'

 

[massraider]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

That's a good point. DHB may have value, but you won't be excited about it.

 

[ponchsox]

This really worries me to the point where I can't trust T.Y. as anything more than a bye week or injury replacment. If he's already depending on scoring TDs like Torrey Smith, what if he isn't targeted much in a game if the Colts are ahead and running the football with 2 WR sets? I think Hilton owners drafted him as someone ready to take the jump into the second tear of fantasy WRs.

 

[JuniorNB]

But, but... Matt Berry has just named TY a top 15 receiver?!

Second half last year for Hilton, if prorated into a full season, equals 68 receptions for 1052 yards and 10 touchdowns. Would that put him in the top 15 this year? (assuming he hasn't improved one bit since then)

 

[Man of Zen]

Aren't we getting a little too caught up in the "starter" tag for DHB? This is similar to an NBA 6th man like Jason Terry who isn't a "starter" but ends up getting more minutes than the starter.

Does anyone actually think Hilton will get less snaps than DHB?

Yes?

Barring injury, I'm starting to have trouble imagining it any other way.

That's the crux of it, I think. The lack of opportunity.

(2-wide sets + 3-wide sets) > 3-wide sets only.

Looks like more or less a redux of last year with Avery, with different personnel in place.

Yeah, but if you compare Hilton to Avery, it doesn't help the pro-DHB argument.

Of course, this isn't an either/or. Because you can get DHB 8 rounds later. It's more about how much the new offense hinders Hilton's snaps/numbers.

Just throwing this out there, but the PLAN may be to become a lot more balance,( and really, Indy almost HAS to become more balanced, it'd be tough to be LESS balanced), but what if Bradshaw isn't the goods, and the defense lets up points at a scary clip? it's not tough to envision Indy putting the ball in Luck's hands, and say, 'we gonna have to win like we did with Peyton for 15-whatever years, by airing it out.'

What pro-DHB argument?

The only argument of substance I've been seeing is that the fact DHB is in line to be used as a starter will limit Hilton's chances at upside, while simultaneously giving him some sort of value as a late round flyer.

 

[We Tigers]

This really worries me to the point where I can't trust T.Y. as anything more than a bye week or injury replacment. If he's already depending on scoring TDs like Torrey Smith, what if he isn't targeted much in a game if the Colts are ahead and running the football with 2 WR sets? I think Hilton owners drafted him as someone ready to take the jump into the second tear of fantasy WRs.

This is where I think Shark Pool discussions frequently go awry. Yes, I know we prefer receivers to be 8-10 target guys who are consistent, and don't like guys like Torrey Smith who blow up some weeks and don't others.But unreliable Torrey Smith finished WR23 last year. Hilton finished WR25. You can't realistically expect top-12 performers at every slot on your roster. Sure, we aspire to that, but the guy finishing WR23, almost no matter how he gets it, is going to be a starting-caliber receiver more often than he isn't.

 

[Hoss Style]

Let's be clear about what everyone is arguing about, before people assign opinions to the "Hilton lovers." (Not for nothin, but you sound like a 12-year-old using this phrase).

The arguing is about Hilton vs. DHB, not their ADP. I've not seen one post regarding Hilton as a steal at his ADP. And there are safer picks in that area. And I haven't seen anyone say DHB isn't a bargain at his ADP.

I think this is a pretty fair assessment.

From a Dynasty/Keeper standpoint I think we are just trying to figure out when T.Y. is going to break out - hence the ferver with what role he's going to play this year.

Better value in a draft right now? DHB. Better player with upside (this season or next)? T.Y. - in many of our opinions.

 

[Hoss Style]

But, but... Matt Berry has just named TY a top 15 receiver?!

Not a fan of Berry sometimes, but I think it's a distinct possibility T.Y. continues to show what he did the second half of last year and the coaches finally say "We can't take this guy off the field at any time."

 

[pizzatyme]

Some recent good posts. Something to consider as well, the Colts defense will be top 16 this year IMO. They have addresses this side of the ball heavily in FA. I think this also lends to less upside for the Colts WRs on the whole.

 

[Tau837]

Better defense + better running game production (better RB in Bradshaw, better blocking) = fewer pass attempts

Base 2 TE set + Hilton playing primarily in 3 WR sets = fewer snaps for Hilton

Base 2 TE set + new OC + better health for Fleener (?) and Allen = greater percentage of attempts to TEs

Emphasis on shorter passing game + addition of Bradshaw = greater percentage of attempts to RBs

All of these things point to a smaller pie for the Colts WRs to divide up in comparison to last season. While it is possible Hilton can claim a larger share of the pie that is sufficient to equal or better his targets last season, it seems unlikely IMO.

If I had to bet on it right now, I'd bet that Hilton gets fewer targets this season than he did last season.

 

[silentcoach]

Preseason usage (I know preseason, preseason) suggets around 6 targets a game for Hilton. It certainly limits his upside if that number holds true.

 

[ponchsox]

It boils down to what Hilton does with those targets. If they are coming in the red zone, his TD total could make up for his lack of targets.

It seems Luck has developed a nice chemistry with Hilton and he may look to him more in key situations.

 

[Raider Nation]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

 

[Welshie]

All three Colts receivers will be useful, but Hilton's being over drafted unless one of the three get hurt.

The demise of DHB has been greatly overstated.

 

[silentcoach]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.

I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

 

[JuniorNB]

Preseason usage (I know preseason, preseason) suggets around 6 targets a game for Hilton. It certainly limits his upside if that number holds true.

According to preseason usage, how many passes will Luck throw a game?

 

[silentcoach]

Preseason usage (I know preseason, preseason) suggets around 6 targets a game for Hilton. It certainly limits his upside if that number holds true.

According to preseason usage, how many passes will Luck throw a game?

i used a baseline of 34 passes a game to predict Hilton's targets. It's not an exact science obviously but it did "teach me" that Wayne is clearly still the number 1 in targets.

At adp wr 28, i think he is being drafted where he should be. A great number 3 that will do a lot better than that if/when given the opportunity (increased targets).

 

[Hoss Style]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.

I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

Fair point, but I read a blurb from PFF (couldn't find it again, it was from maybe 2 days ago?) where they said that although DHB had more snaps (I think 6 or so) the number of actual routes run was almost the same (I think DHB only had one more route run).

So if they mean to pass they've got T.Y. in, it seems.

 

[Man of Zen]

Not that the number means anything but Luck threw 44 passes in gametime that amounted to about 4 1/8 quarters.

So, 39 rounded to four quarters, bearing in mind that the running game was resting and they were trying out new receivers. So those throwing out 35 per game probably wouldn't be super far off if preseason were going to be somehow indicative of the regular season.

 

[cstu]

This really worries me to the point where I can't trust T.Y. as anything more than a bye week or injury replacment. If he's already depending on scoring TDs like Torrey Smith, what if he isn't targeted much in a game if the Colts are ahead and running the football with 2 WR sets? I think Hilton owners drafted him as someone ready to take the jump into the second tear of fantasy WRs.

This is where I think Shark Pool discussions frequently go awry. Yes, I know we prefer receivers to be 8-10 target guys who are consistent, and don't like guys like Torrey Smith who blow up some weeks and don't others.But unreliable Torrey Smith finished WR23 last year. Hilton finished WR25. You can't realistically expect top-12 performers at every slot on your roster. Sure, we aspire to that, but the guy finishing WR23, almost no matter how he gets it, is going to be a starting-caliber receiver more often than he isn't.

If you can make yourself start him every week then you'll be fine. The problem with guys like this is the temptation to get smart and start someone who you think has a better matchup or will get more targets. If you miss out on those big games then he's not really a WR2. For example, the week before Hilton's best game (28 FP) against the Pats he had zero catches against the Jags.

 

[JackReacher]

The demise of DHB has been greatly overstated.

Don't you have to be alive before you can have a demise?If we are talking about ADP value, we need to also question Wayne who was outplayed by TY in the second half of 2012.

 

[Man of Zen]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.

I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

Fair point, but I read a blurb from PFF (couldn't find it again, it was from maybe 2 days ago?) where they said that although DHB had more snaps (I think 6 or so) the number of actual routes run was almost the same (I think DHB only had one more route run).

So if they mean to pass they've got T.Y. in, it seems.

DHB didn't play week one, FWIW.

 

[silentcoach]

Not that the number means anything but Luck threw 44 passes in gametime that amounted to about 4 1/8 quarters.

So, 39 rounded to four quarters, bearing in mind that the running game was resting and they were trying out new receivers. So those throwing out 35 per game probably wouldn't be super far off if preseason were going to be somehow indicative of the regular season.

agreed. I used 34, 35 sounds fair. It's just guessing. All we know is that this staff does not want to throw it as much as last year (39/game).

 

[FF Ninja]

Preseason usage (I know preseason, preseason) suggets around 6 targets a game for Hilton. It certainly limits his upside if that number holds true.

According to preseason usage, how many passes will Luck throw a game?

i used a baseline of 34 passes a game to predict Hilton's targets. It's not an exact science obviously but it did "teach me" that Wayne is clearly still the number 1 in targets.

At adp wr 28, i think he is being drafted where he should be. A great number 3 that will do a lot better than that if/when given the opportunity (increased targets).

I wouldn't touch him at WR28. FF Calculator has him at WR24 now.

That's going ahead of guys like Wallace, Steve Smith, and Miles Austin. Unless Hilton catches a disproportionate number of TDs this year, I think he is a really bad draft pick in the 6th/7th round. Really bad. Huge gamble but what is the upside for a guy with such limited snaps?

 

[Raider Nation]

So if they mean to pass they've got T.Y. in, it seems.

Of course. You aren't going to let Bill Wennington take the game-winning shot when Jordan is available.

(That analogy may well suck but I just woke up, so bite me.)

 

[silentcoach]

This really worries me to the point where I can't trust T.Y. as anything more than a bye week or injury replacment. If he's already depending on scoring TDs like Torrey Smith, what if he isn't targeted much in a game if the Colts are ahead and running the football with 2 WR sets? I think Hilton owners drafted him as someone ready to take the jump into the second tear of fantasy WRs.

This is where I think Shark Pool discussions frequently go awry. Yes, I know we prefer receivers to be 8-10 target guys who are consistent, and don't like guys like Torrey Smith who blow up some weeks and don't others.But unreliable Torrey Smith finished WR23 last year. Hilton finished WR25. You can't realistically expect top-12 performers at every slot on your roster. Sure, we aspire to that, but the guy finishing WR23, almost no matter how he gets it, is going to be a starting-caliber receiver more often than he isn't.

If you can make yourself start him every week then you'll be fine. The problem with guys like this is the temptation to get smart and start someone who you think has a better matchup or will get more targets. If you miss out on those big games then he's not really a WR2. For example, the week before Hilton's best game (28 FP) against the Pats he had zero catches against the Jags.

agreed. if you draft him you start him every week unless your number 4 wr is also a top 36 wr and has a "predicted" better matchup.

example: Hilton v. Seattle and Shorts v. Saints or something like that.

Otherwise draft and play the man!

 

[Vector]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

If he is named starter in week 4 then that probably means he performed extremely well in the first three weeks and they had to get him in the lineup as a starter.

I draft for the entire year not for the first quarter of the year. I also play in a keeper league and TY fits much better into my plans than DHB. TY just has the drive and heart that makes it almost inevitable that he will succeed and exceed expectations. Just who he is.

 

[Raider Nation]

I honestly wouldn't care if he's never "named starter" the entire season. They probably at least want to appear as if they are staying true to the roots of the offense, with a lot of 1st-down runs. If they want DHB in there to do the grunt work and dig out a safety... he can "start" all he wants.

 

[silentcoach]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

If he is named starter in week 4 then that probably means he performed extremely well in the first three weeks and they had to get him in the lineup as a starter.

I draft for the entire year not for the first quarter of the year. I also play in a keeper league and TY fits much better into my plans than DHB. TY just has the drive and heart that makes it almost inevitable that he will succeed and exceed expectations. Just who he is.

what is this urge to draft players and then HYPE them up to no end. The same was happening with the D.Wilson thread.

Draft the player wherever YOU have him, and be happy. Don't draft a wr at adp wr 28 and then TELL the world he is wr 15 and that it does not matter at all that he is number 3 on the depth chart. If he is a steal to you , then good for you, you got a bargain. But there is no need to ignore other signs out there.

What do I think? I think he can be a stud if he saw the field more. Will he? I don't know, but I will not ignore the fact that he currently is not set to see the field as a number 2 wr, which at a minimum limits his upside.

One word (or more like a sentence): Remember J.Charles. Dude was clearly better than T.Jones and what happened there? Charles did well, but imagine if he had MORE touches . Sometimes, crap just happens and this "crap" should be acounted for, especially when it is staring you in the face--that is all.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Bummer - more cold water dumped

Darrius Heyward-Bey - WR - Colts
The Colts are "confident they've got a smart arrangement" with Darrius Heyward-Bey as a starter ahead of T.Y. Hilton.
Indianapolis has installed Heyward-Bey as their man in two-wide sets opposite Reggie Wayne and haven't wavered. The Indy Star says it's because the 6'2/210 DHB is better as a blocker in the run game and the Colts want to play with more balance on offense this year. That leaves the 5'9/178 Hilton as the third receiver, only playing in passing situations. It's a drain on Hilton's value as the Colts are going to run a lot more double-tight end sets under new OC Pep Hamilton. Former OC Bruce Arians loved to get three wideouts on the field as much as possible. There's value in DHB's 12th-round ADP.

This is only news to delusional Hilton owners. Some hype trains are just too strong for logic and reason. Preseason touchdowns are like jet fuel. This is going to be funny to watch all season

He did just fine as a WR3 last year. Yeah I know it's a different system but he will get his touches...just too much talent.

Totally different ball game. THe COlts lived with 3 WR on the field last year. THis year, they will not. You can't score from the sideline.

Disagree...he will be on the field plenty. I keep hearing about the 2 TE sets but both Allen and Fleener are banged up and Fleener stunk in his limited preseason opportunity.

Allen's expected to play week 1.

Fleener has had a concussion and a knee strain but he's expected to play week 1 too.

If Wayne gets 1200, and if the TEs get 900-1100 as expected, and if the RBs get ~500, how much is left over for DHB & TYH anyway? Are we really looking at 1600 between the two of them? Or something less?

DHB may have an advantage in run blocking skills and in terms of size as far as that's concerned, and that may be another reason he stays in more than Hilton and why Hilton has not and will not truly claim that job from him later in the year.

Maybe instead of looking for a TYH reprise the thing to do is look for who will be the TYH on the Cards this year.

 

[JuniorNB]

Preseason usage (I know preseason, preseason) suggets around 6 targets a game for Hilton. It certainly limits his upside if that number holds true.

According to preseason usage, how many passes will Luck throw a game?

i used a baseline of 34 passes a game to predict Hilton's targets. It's not an exact science obviously but it did "teach me" that Wayne is clearly still the number 1 in targets.

At adp wr 28, i think he is being drafted where he should be. A great number 3 that will do a lot better than that if/when given the opportunity (increased targets).

I agree with this. I drafted him as my WR3, and think he's going to be a great one. I see him finishing around WR15-18 for the season.

 

[cstu]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

That's a good point. DHB may have value, but you won't be excited about it.

Very true. Barring injury he's bye week filler since hopefully you have someone better than his 4/60/maybe a TD to start every week.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

That's a good point. DHB may have value, but you won't be excited about it.

Very true. Barring injury he's bye week filler since hopefully you have someone better than his 4/60/maybe a TD to start every week.

You know what? 4/60 and occasional TD sound pretty 'meh' right now, but can be extremely valuable to some teams that are decimated by injuries mid-season. Just last year, I took a late round flier on Brian Hartline and was able to package him and a RB to a desperate Dez Bryant owner. Dez almost single handedly won the championship for me in week 16. Not saying that's something that happens everyday, but you never know what kind of trade value a guy can have mid season.

 

[Vector]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

If he is named starter in week 4 then that probably means he performed extremely well in the first three weeks and they had to get him in the lineup as a starter.

I draft for the entire year not for the first quarter of the year. I also play in a keeper league and TY fits much better into my plans than DHB. TY just has the drive and heart that makes it almost inevitable that he will succeed and exceed expectations. Just who he is.

what is this urge to draft players and then HYPE them up to no end. The same was happening with the D.Wilson thread.Draft the player wherever YOU have him, and be happy. Don't draft a wr at adp wr 28 and then TELL the world he is wr 15 and that it does not matter at all that he is number 3 on the depth chart. If he is a steal to you , then good for you, you got a bargain. But there is no need to ignore other signs out there.

What do I think? I think he can be a stud if he saw the field more. Will he? I don't know, but I will not ignore the fact that he currently is not set to see the field as a number 2 wr, which at worst limits his upside.

One word (or more like a sentence): Remember J.Charles. Dude was clearly better than T.Jones and what happened there? Charles did well, but imagine if he had MORE touches . Sometimes, crap just happens and this "crap" should be acounted for, especially when it is staring you in the face--that is all.

Wow. My first post in this thread and I explained why I drafted him. Now I'm hyping up to no end ?!?!?

 

[We Tigers]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

That's a good point. DHB may have value, but you won't be excited about it.

Very true. Barring injury he's bye week filler since hopefully you have someone better than his 4/60/maybe a TD to start every week.

You know what? 4/60 and occasional TD sound pretty 'meh' right now, but can be extremely valuable to some teams that are decimated by injuries mid-season. Just last year, I took a late round flier on Brian Hartline and was able to package him and a RB to a desperate Dez Bryant owner. Dez almost single handedly won the championship for me in week 16. Not saying that's something that happens everyday, but you never know what kind of trade value a guy can have mid season.

4/60/occasional TD is wayyy more than I expect out of DHB. In fact, I have Hilton projected for something like that!WR40-45/Avery numbers are more like 3/45/TD every 4-5 games. Obviously someone in that role is going to have a handful of 1/17 and 3/20 games, so you just hope you're starting him on the day he makes up for it with 6/74 and a score.

 

[Hoss Style]

Again, stop worrying about which player is "starting". DHB has proven himself to be an extraordinarily average football player.

Hilton can be great. The cream will rise.

It does matter when you are NOT on the field. C'mon basic math, at least initially. If you are not on the field, you cannot produce. Even if Hilton is named "starter" in week 4, that is 3 games where he did not start and had less of an impact. So it should at the very least be accounted for.

I think people take "starter" to mean opportunity, or least involvement in the offense--targets.

Hilton can be great, you said it, CAN. Draft him according to this "can" and all is well.

Fair point, but I read a blurb from PFF (couldn't find it again, it was from maybe 2 days ago?) where they said that although DHB had more snaps (I think 6 or so) the number of actual routes run was almost the same (I think DHB only had one more route run).

So if they mean to pass they've got T.Y. in, it seems.

DHB didn't play week one, FWIW.

I believe it was referring to Week 3 only. Supposedly the "dress rehersal" for the regular season.

 

[cstu]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

That's a good point. DHB may have value, but you won't be excited about it.

Very true. Barring injury he's bye week filler since hopefully you have someone better than his 4/60/maybe a TD to start every week.

You know what? 4/60 and occasional TD sound pretty 'meh' right now, but can be extremely valuable to some teams that are decimated by injuries mid-season. Just last year, I took a late round flier on Brian Hartline and was able to package him and a RB to a desperate Dez Bryant owner. Dez almost single handedly won the championship for me in week 16. Not saying that's something that happens everyday, but you never know what kind of trade value a guy can have mid season.

4/60/occasional TD is wayyy more than I expect out of DHB. In fact, I have Hilton projected for something like that!WR40-45/Avery numbers are more like 3/45/TD every 4-5 games. Obviously someone in that role is going to have a handful of 1/17 and 3/20 games, so you just hope you're starting him on the day he makes up for it with 6/74 and a score.

Perhaps it's optimistic but I believe DHB is better than Avery and do more with his targets. If DHB get 120 targets I expect him to be around 60/900/7 (that's basically what he did in 2011 on 111 targets).

 

[jurb26]

Will the Colts throw enough for Wayne/DHB/Hilton to all have fantasy value?

Per their ADP, sure. It's certainly possible. DHB is in the 50th-60th WR range right now. Hilton's 25th to 30th. Wayne is 15-20. DHB only has to match Avery's numbers last year to finish around 40-45 and be worth the pick...but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be someone you ever really want to start more than once or twice. I don't think there's much chance he does something like crack the top 30.

That's a good point. DHB may have value, but you won't be excited about it.

Very true. Barring injury he's bye week filler since hopefully you have someone better than his 4/60/maybe a TD to start every week.

You know what? 4/60 and occasional TD sound pretty 'meh' right now, but can be extremely valuable to some teams that are decimated by injuries mid-season. Just last year, I took a late round flier on Brian Hartline and was able to package him and a RB to a desperate Dez Bryant owner. Dez almost single handedly won the championship for me in week 16. Not saying that's something that happens everyday, but you never know what kind of trade value a guy can have mid season.

4/60/occasional TD is wayyy more than I expect out of DHB. In fact, I have Hilton projected for something like that!WR40-45/Avery numbers are more like 3/45/TD every 4-5 games. Obviously someone in that role is going to have a handful of 1/17 and 3/20 games, so you just hope you're starting him on the day he makes up for it with 6/74 and a score.

Perhaps it's optimistic but I believe DHB is better than Avery and do more with his targets. If DHB get 120 targets I expect him to be around 60/900/7 (that's basically what he did in 2011 on 111 targets).

My thoughts exactly. It wouldn't surprise me if he went for over a 1000 yds given that many targets. Luck is significantly better than any QB he's ever played with and so is the offense as a whole.

 

[ponchsox]

Hilton owners are trying to cut down DHB but I can't get over what he did in Oakland with a crap QB. With a full season with Luck this guy is going to put up 1000/8.

I'm buying on DHB.

 

[resko99]

Hilton owners are trying to cut down DHB but I can't get over what he did in Oakland with a crap QB. With a full season with Luck this guy is going to put up 1000/8.

I'm buying on DHB.

I'm buying also, especially in dynasty. You can get him for next to nothing. He has #2 potential immediately with Luck being the BEST QB that has ever thrown to him and has #1 upside once Wayne retires.

 

[ponchsox]

Why is DHB still going in the 12th or undrafted and Hilton is going in the 7th/8th?

 

[Bayhawks]

Why is DHB still going in the 12th or undrafted and Hilton is going in the 7th/8th?

This is an odd question, and I think you know the answer.

DHB has a track record of not being very valuable, FF-speaking, and until recently, most (all ?) reports out of Indy were glowing about Hilton, with little mention of DHB. That, coupled with the fact that Hilton had a pretty decent rookie year, leads many FFers to be more excited about Hilton's prospects than DHBs.

If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, Hilton appears to have the brighter future & higher ceiling. Even if you are in a redraft league, Hilton would appear to be the "higher reward" type pick.

Obviously, at his ADP, DHB has value, but he's not really exciting. Even a few posters in this thread have remarked that they would be happy/excited if DHB got numbers like 900-1000 yards, and 6-7 TDs. With ff "experts" and FF sites making statements like the sky is the limit with Hilton, he could become the #1 WR in Indy (down the road) in Indy, etc, FFers are more likely to spend a higher pick (but still mid-round) on the guy who could become a stud, rather than spend a late pick on a guy who they aren't excited about, and probably wouldn't start, barring injuries.

 

[need2know]

Why is DHB still going in the 12th or undrafted and Hilton is going in the 7th/8th?

Because hilton is the better player and will score more fantasy points?

 

[Man of Zen]

Why is DHB still going in the 12th or undrafted and Hilton is going in the 7th/8th?

Because hilton is the better player and will score more fantasy points?

I think that's one way to look at the question he asked, and a totally valid one, to boot.

But I think another is this: if we're expecting enough out of Luck and Indy in the second season that a talent like Hilton is going ahead of some really established and high-upside receivers himself, why aren't we at least a little bit higher on DHB, too, considering all things?

I don't see any reason DHB should get less action than Avery did last year...

And I don't see any reason given a higher volume than he's seen before, why DHB shouldn't improve over his recent averages...

And I don't see any reason that given another year and a preseason where Luck shows that he appears to be a step closer to the promised land, why we'd expect him to be any less effective with his #2 WR than last year...

So all put another way, if we're this high on the #3, wouldn't we be justified in being a whole lot higher on the #2 than we currently are as a group? DHB's been a 50/800/5 type guy the last few. If we think a slight (or better) uptick from there is likely, why all the pessimism? I think the "bust" label has stained our perception of DHB more than the actual stats and situation dictate, here.

 

[ponchsox]

Why is DHB still going in the 12th or undrafted and Hilton is going in the 7th/8th?

Because hilton is the better player and will score more fantasy points?

Hilton is the better player, agreed. But the Colts have made it clear DHB will be the #2 along side Wayne with Hilton in on passing downs. When DHB was on the field in Oakland, he produced with a lousy QB. For the record, I own Hilton but I'm buying late on DHB because I think he has upside in this offense.

I look at some of the WR taken ahead of DHB in drafts and really don't get it. He is in a terrific situation to be valuable this year.