How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

I love it when Junior i-fights with people. Ask for his thoughts on Tiger Woods.

Nah, I'll just leave my responses to people who are actually reading the thread from now on.

At least we can agree on something in this thread. I Luck. Exactly how you would draw up a QB. Would love to see him in a fun offense more like Brees gets to run in New Orleans, or Stafford in Detroit, but he'll be a star no matter what system he's in.

The oline needs to improve for him to truly reach his potential IMO. But yeah, he's quickly become one of my favorite players in the NFL.

 

[jdoggydogg]

If that happens because of Hilton blowing up, so be it. If it happens because DHB blow up, just as good.

I can't believe you had the guts to type this. Did you type with with a straight face?

 

[cstu]

75 yards a game and a TD every 1.5 games is far from absurd.

Torrey Smith is the #1 for the Ravens and can't reach those numbers despite being bigger with arguably better talent. I remember after Smith's 50/841/7 rookie year people believed he was going to blow up like the numbers you mentioned. It didn't happen for him as the #1 so I think it'll be tough for Hilton as the #3 (or even #2 if he beats out DHB).

Not unfair. Two comments though. That offense has been run-heavy. I can't see that happening in Indy. The personnel is better at QB/WR than RB. Also, Smith is the #1 receiver NOW. But I'm not sure how you can say Boldin wasn't the main option in the passing game.

Fair enough, I'll call them 1a/1b.

 

[JuniorNB]

How would TY's numbers looked if you prorated the 2nd half of last season? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's not wise to prorate. Usually not, but sometimes it is.

52/1012/10.

Lol, from the way all these Hilton owners were talking I was expecting that to be a LOT more.

A lot more? Lol Those are great numbers. You've been getting crushed in this thread. And just got crushed again.

Right, those numbers are so good they don't even approach most of the Hilton projections in this thread.

I've only seen one or two projections in this entire thread that had him over 1000 yards and double digit TDs. Once again, you don't know what you're talking about. Starting to become a trend.

LOL, yeah because outside of my projections there are exactly 3 projections posted. 2 of which are OVER 1100 yds and double digit TDs. Try again....

Once again, you're proving to be clueless.

There were EIGHT people who offered up projections. (not 3, like you claimed).

One seems like the guy might be in love with Hilton, as he predicted 1300 yards and 14 TDs. His was balanced out by yours, who I think Hilton may have assaulted at some point. You have him for 850 yds and only 5 TDs (2 less than his [and Luck's] rookie year).

The others were: 975/8-9 (Man of Zen), 1000/10 (cstu), 1140/11 (Raider Nation), 950/9 (me), 62 rec/900 yds (We Tiger), 1050/10 (Pipes).

Every single one of them is exactly in line with his prorated production in the second half of last season (62/1052/10)

So, with the exception of one person, everyone who made a projection is simply saying he'll continue where he left off last year (and seems to be this preseason). Not sure why that's ruffling your feathers so much, but I'd guess it's because you screwed up and grabbed DHB because you read in USA Today that he's the Colts #2 receiver.

 

[JuniorNB]

I love it when Junior i-fights with people. Ask for his thoughts on Tiger Woods.

He's decent, but not what he once was.

 

[Man of Zen]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

 

[massraider]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

He was 'relegated to situational duty' last year, as a rookie, and dramatically outperformed a WR more accomplished than the new guy. The arrow is pointing up.

 

[Apple Jack]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

Yeah, a talented receiver who has yet to be put in an on offense that knows what it's doing with an exceptionally gifted QB. Again, it comes down to value and DHB could wind up being one of the best value stories of the season. Even if Hilton ends up with these absurd projections, which is highly unlikely, he's still going to end up only somewhat exceeding the expectations of his ADP/auction price. I picked up DHB for free.

 

[Raider Nation]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

 

[cstu]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

Versus Hilton's stone hands?

 

[massraider]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

Versus Hilton's stone hands?

Yeaaaaaah, if you are pushing DHB, really don't want to bring up the H word.

 

[jurb26]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one. Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

This is the argument against DHB when Hilton was at the top of the league in drops?

 

[Man of Zen]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

Good info. Will keep eyes open.

 

[Raider Nation]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

Versus Hilton's stone hands?

Complete BS. What, because someone saw him drop one ball in the preseason? DHB has a history of not catching routine passes. Check out the grab Hilton made at 0:45 at his pro day. He caught the back half of the ball! You don't make that catch if you have terrible hands.

 

[Man of Zen]

I don't think anyone's confusing either of these guys with Cris Carter any time soon.

 

[Raider Nation]

More HILTON HANDS!

Ignore everything you've been told!!!

 

[jurb26]

How would TY's numbers looked if you prorated the 2nd half of last season? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's not wise to prorate. Usually not, but sometimes it is.

52/1012/10.

Lol, from the way all these Hilton owners were talking I was expecting that to be a LOT more.

A lot more? Lol Those are great numbers. You've been getting crushed in this thread. And just got crushed again.

Right, those numbers are so good they don't even approach most of the Hilton projections in this thread.

I've only seen one or two projections in this entire thread that had him over 1000 yards and double digit TDs. Once again, you don't know what you're talking about. Starting to become a trend.

LOL, yeah because outside of my projections there are exactly 3 projections posted. 2 of which are OVER 1100 yds and double digit TDs. Try again....

Once again, you're proving to be clueless. There were EIGHT people who offered up projections. (not 3, like you claimed).

One seems like the guy might be in love with Hilton, as he predicted 1300 yards and 14 TDs. His was balanced out by yours, who I think Hilton may have assaulted at some point. You have him for 850 yds and only 5 TDs (2 less than his [and Luck's] rookie year).

The others were: 975/8-9 (Man of Zen), 1000/10 (cstu), 1140/11 (Raider Nation), 950/9 (me), 62 rec/900 yds (We Tiger), 1050/10 (Pipes).

Every single one of them is exactly in line with his prorated production in the second half of last season (62/1052/10)

So, with the exception of one person, everyone who made a projection is simply saying he'll continue where he left off last year (and seems to be this preseason). Not sure why that's ruffling your feathers so much, but I'd guess it's because you screwed up and grabbed DHB because you read in USA Today that he's the Colts #2 receiver.

Yeah, I missed a few of those. I guess you missed the part where DHB is going 9 or 10 rounds later than Hilton.

The most ironic part of this thread is that Hilton owner are more concerned with bashing DHB than anything. What you all should do is simply draft DHB in round 14 and hedge your bet. The price couldn't be any cheaper on DHB.

 

[jurb26]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

Versus Hilton's stone hands?

Complete BS. What, because someone saw him drop one ball in the preseason? DHB has a history of not catching routine passes. Check out the grab Hilton made at 0:45 at his pro day. He caught the back half of the ball! You don't make that catch if you have terrible hands.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/21/signature-stats-drop-rate-wide-receivers/Hilton had the highest drop rate in the NFL last year. Well, it was a tie with him and Avery who was also costing Luck points on a weekly basis.

Edit to add, this is why I think it's funny when people try to slam Luck for his poor completion %. 22 drops from those 2 guys alone.

 

[JuniorNB]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one. Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

This is the argument against DHB when Hilton was at the top of the league in drops?

He was 45th. LOL Top of the league. He had a 6.67% drop percentage. Amongst those with a higher drop percentage: Jimmy Graham, Victor Cruz, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Myers, Andre Roberts, Kenny Britt, Cecil Shorts, Jordy Nelson, Rob Gronkowski, Donald Driver.....

Yeah, I think Hilton will be just fine.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2012/

 

[Raider Nation]

A day later and I've looked up a whole lot of stuff, and I'm still clueless on this one.

Given what I've seen out of Hilton, and the fact that he seems -- at least for the season's start -- relegated to situational duty, I'm starting to question whether I unfairly wrote off DHB's career when he seemingly busted in a terrible situation. Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

They'll love everything about him until his stone-hands costs them a game. Trust me on this one. He also tends to get locked up by physical press corners. Nobody will do that to Hilton. He's too slippery.

Versus Hilton's stone hands?

Complete BS. What, because someone saw him drop one ball in the preseason? DHB has a history of not catching routine passes. Check out the grab Hilton made at 0:45 at his pro day. He caught the back half of the ball! You don't make that catch if you have terrible hands.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/21/signature-stats-drop-rate-wide-receivers/Hilton had the highest drop rate in the NFL last year. Well, it was a tie with him and Avery who was also costing Luck points on a weekly basis.

Edit to add, this is why I think it's funny when people try to slam Luck for his poor completion %. 22 drops from those 2 guys alone.

This is tantamount to a shortstop with good range who gets to balls that other shortstops wouldn't, yet still gets charged with an error. I want to see every one of those ten drops. Were the balls thrown perfectly? Would a slower WR not even have been in position to get their hands on the ball? Etc.

 

[Raider Nation]

See what I mean? jurb's site has him with 10 drops. Junior's site has him with 6. A "drop" can be a highly arbitrary stat.

 

[JuniorNB]

See what I mean? jurb's site has him with 10 drops. Junior's site has him with 6. A "drop" can be a highly arbitrary stat.

Exactly.

 

[LawFitz]

How would TY's numbers looked if you prorated the 2nd half of last season? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's not wise to prorate. Usually not, but sometimes it is.

52/1012/10.

Lol, from the way all these Hilton owners were talking I was expecting that to be a LOT more.

I would say it's not a bad projection if he indeed gets only the third highest WR snap % on this team all year. If OTOH, he somehow rises in the pecking order to 2nd highest snaps, you can probably bump these numbers by as much as 20%.

 

[Johnny Blood]

Indy coaches must be seeing something they like.

I'm not replying to you, but that leads in to my analsys. They saw a one year, $2,500,000 receiver for Luck, with no commitment or risk.

And that was DHB's best offer. DHB gets John Kuhn level annual pay, except he doesn't get a multi-year contract. The Colts slide DHB into the empty spot, keep doing what worked last year, and devote a miniscule portion of the cap.

Nobody is puffing up DHB based on his performance with the Colts, just his current spot on the depth chart. He's accomplished nothing in preseason. His best camp praise is that he was dropping the ball, then stopped. So whatever they saw before, if they liked it, why not lock him up longer? I just don't get it. If they saw something were the other 31 teams fools? But if they saw something and didn't lock it up, doesn't that make 32 fools?

Hilton was extremely effective in the #3 position as a rookie with a rookie QB. He doesn't need to be out there in 2 WR sets in Game 1 to increase in value. QBs make WRs, and I think Hilton will grow with Luck. DHB would've shown the goods by now IMO. Don't blame the Raiders---there was nothing wrong from a WR perspective with what Palmer was chucking up last year.

All that said, I like DHB. I defended him in Oakland. I targeted him. I'm not saying he won't have fantasy value! But he isn't going to be a problem for Hilton in fantasy because Luck is one of the rising elite QBs. On a different team this would all be a different story.

 

[jurb26]

See what I mean? jurb's site has him with 10 drops. Junior's site has him with 6. A "drop" can be a highly arbitrary stat.

There is always going to be some variance in what people see as drops. To me, the site I referenced is the only one to use because it scrubs away the garbage that really bogs down the number. Simply using targets is the most faulty way of looking at the stat IMO. The main reason the drop % on the sites is so different is because one is using targets, 90 and the other catchable balls, 60. Obviously when you divide by 90 and not 60 you will get a far more favorable number. More on that here.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1244228-nfc-north-pro-football-focus-drops-the-knowledge-on-receiver-drops

I'm betting the difference between 6 and 10 arrives from the fact that some of those passes were contested but still hit his hands. One site probable ranked them as pass defenses while the other drop. I'm not sure which is correct and I'm not sure we can ever figure that out without researching every Colts game. Which I just don't care enough to do.

 

[ponchsox]

So would you Hilton lovers put your money where your mouth is and start him in week one?

 

[Raider Nation]

So would you Hilton lovers put your money where your mouth is and start him in week one?

I was just thinking the same thing, only with real $. I'd be comfortable making PayPal wagers with any and all long-time FBGs. I'll say Hilton has more yards and TDs than DHB. I'm not quite confident enough in his volume, so I wouldn't wager on catches.

As for starting him in week 1? Abso-freaking-lutely.

 

[JuniorNB]

So would you Hilton lovers put your money where your mouth is and start him in week one?

I have him in as my WR3 over Britt and Thompkins.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wanna hear the funniest part? I haven't even drafted him yet. I have two local-league drafts later this week, and if I know the guys in those leagues, they are reading this thread ( ) and I will probably get sniped on him twice now!

 

[Pipes]

So would you Hilton lovers put your money where your mouth is and start him in week one?

Yep. Cobb is my WR1 and will be rolling with Hilton over DHB as my WR2.

 

[massraider]

So would you Hilton lovers put your money where your mouth is and start him in week one?

Colts play Raiders week 1. Wish I owned him.

 

[Raider Nation]

Watching the Browns/Colts game that was sitting on my DVR from this afternoon. Hilton is playing every snap early on, along with DHB and Wayne, but to be fair we shouldn't read anything into that since both of their tight ends are injured. The one thing that caught my eye so far was that the Browns DBs were typically lined up 9 yards off of Hilton, then they'd go into a backpedal. The first pass of the game, Hilton caught an 8-yard curl while the DB was still retreating. Seems like he can have that any time he wants it. CLE is well aware of Hilton's speed. They are only playing off of him. The other DBs are in Wayne's and DHB's jerseys at the LOS. I want to see if there are any adjustments as we move forward in the game.

 

[Hoss Style]

Man, I wish some of you "Hilton" guys were here in the early hours yesterday to help. I was me vs 3 or more DHB guys. I was trying to keep it civil, but they just have some outrageous claims.

I still don't understand the guy projecting DHB with more TDs. How can that be? Sure, it may happen, but common sense tells us that a young WR with talent who:

• was injured early
• wasn't in the gameplan as much the first half of the season
• outperformed the WR#1 for most of the second half of the season
• was a rookie in a new system
• has big play potential and has shown it consistantly the 2nd half of last year and preseason this year
• has worked hard in the offseason to improve according to Wayne and the coaches
• Produced his numbers in the 2nd half of last season and this preseason as the WR3.

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3). More experience, improved in the offseason, more trust from his QB, more involved in the game plan, etc.

ALL this you think will be trumped by DHB, because you have a hunch he wasn't able to perform well for years in another offense. A hunch.

If you guys actually do get one of the old-schoolers who we can trust to hold money for bets, I'm in - in a heartbeat.

 

[Saint]

Wow.... this thread is all over the place.

I don't have a dog in this race, but what's apparent to me is that there is some heavy risk taking Hilton as a 6th-7th round pick due to the discussion on how much time Hilton has on the field as DHB. Personally, I'll take Mile Austin at that spot and be happy about a guy that's definitely involved in an offense that will be passing a lot in the NFC East. I do think Indy will be running some 3-WR sets which brings value to everyone there. Just how much value is the question.

IMO, if I can take a receiver at Rd 14-15 that could put up WR3/4 numbers for WR 5/6 price, I'll take that to the bank every week. Right now, you have to pay to get Hilton. It is what it is.

 

[Man of Zen]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

Did this actually happen? Taking a quick look through, I saw one guy projecting Hilton for slightly lower numbers than last year (presumably because he thinks DHB is better than Avery, and the offense might slow down a tick from its legendary pace), a whole bunch of people saying that yes, Hilton would be better, but maybe not so much better that he's worth where he's being drafted, and a handful of people who think he's a top five overall WR.

The discussion, thus, doesn't really seem to be DHB versus Hilton. It's how DHB's presence and role effect Hilton, and thus Hilton versus the WR's who are getting drafted around him. Like the guy below said, it's more Hilton vs. Austin (either one), Boldin, Jennings, Stevie J, etc. Because that's whose production you're passing on if you take Hilton instead. And if you're confident he'll be a top 10 overall type receiver, presumably you're not risking having him fall to you at his ADP, so it's Hilton versus Desean, Garcon, Steve Smith, etc. for you guys.

In either scenario, you're not passing on DHB to take Hilton -- you can just take him for free.

 

[jurb26]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

Did this actually happen? Taking a quick look through, I saw one guy projecting Hilton for slightly lower numbers than last year (presumably because he thinks DHB is better than Avery, and the offense might slow down a tick from its legendary pace), a whole bunch of people saying that yes, Hilton would be better, but maybe not so much better that he's worth where he's being drafted, and a handful of people who think he's a top five overall WR.The discussion, thus, doesn't really seem to be DHB versus Hilton. It's how DHB's presence and role effect Hilton, and thus Hilton versus the WR's who are getting drafted around him. Like the guy below said, it's more Hilton vs. Austin (either one), Boldin, Jennings, Stevie J, etc. Because that's whose production you're passing on if you take Hilton instead. And if you're confident he'll be a top 10 overall type receiver, presumably you're not risking having him fall to you at his ADP, so it's Hilton versus Desean, Garcon, Steve Smith, etc. for you guys.

In either scenario, you're not passing on DHB to take Hilton -- you can just take him for free.

It didn't happen. I believe ny projections were the lowest for Hilton and I have him with more receptions, more yes but 2 less TDs. I don't find it likely he repeats 17+ yds per catch and with a few less big plays the TDs come down. Like you said, I believe DHB will perform better than Avery did in the same role. As for what there is to like about DHB, really it's simple. He's got opportunity. Last year Avery saw 120 targets in the same role DHB is locked into now. That is more targets than DHB has ever seen and they will be coming in a much improved situation for him. Oak was putrid. On top of that, DHB is a guy who has vastly improved all 4 years in the NFL. His rookie season saw him with a drop rate of near 36%. That rate has systematically decreased every year to around 6% last year. People are talking about Hilton and his work ethic to improve. Well, DHB has equal if not better work ethic and has shown tangible improvement for 4 years. Also, coaches are raving anout him just like they are about Hilton. These things are a push and meaningless imo. He's also never played a full season and has battle injuries in each of the past 2 seasons. Despite long odds he has posted in back to back season 975/4 and 606/5 on an awful Oak team. This notion that he's never accomplished anything is as false as it gets.

The most critical question to be answered by the Hilton backers is simple. If Hilton is so vastly superior to DHb then why can't he pass him on the depth chart? Especially seeing that he's got a year in that system and the coaches all know him? Maybe it's because he's simply not the talent you think or perhaps DHB is just better than you want to acknowledge. I'd side with the latter.

I don't see the roles of the players changing much from last year and therefor I can't project Hilton higher than DHB. DHB is looking at approximately 120 targets, Avery's number from last year. Hilton is looking at 90, his number from last year. If they roles change, so will my projections. Also, if one of the TEs or some other major news about the offense comes up then ill adjust then as well.

I really don't see why so many Hilton owners feel there is even a need to bash DHB. Insecurity is suppose. Like you and I said earlier in the thread DHB is almost a free hedge to Hilton. His ADP is round 14! This seems more like an emotional thing to me than a rational one. If you like Hilton that much just draft both and be happy you don't have to worry about it.

 

[NajehHejan]

I love Hilton’s upside and do think he will eventually overtake DHB during the regular season, but I likely won’t start him early in the season until my assumption becomes evident. I may end up leaving big points on the bench, but so be it. Best case scenario would be DHB gets hurt early so there is no waiting. The base 2TE set is definitely going to limit Hilton’s opportunities early on while DHB is the 2nd WR. I actually think DHB will have a decent year, and could benefit from a change of scenery, but I desperately want him out of the way to clear the path for Hilton’s eventual rise to stardom.

 

[cstu]

Watching the Browns/Colts game that was sitting on my DVR from this afternoon. Hilton is playing every snap early on, along with DHB and Wayne, but to be fair we shouldn't read anything into that since both of their tight ends are injured. The one thing that caught my eye so far was that the Browns DBs were typically lined up 9 yards off of Hilton, then they'd go into a backpedal. The first pass of the game, Hilton caught an 8-yard curl while the DB was still retreating. Seems like he can have that any time he wants it. CLE is well aware of Hilton's speed. They are only playing off of him. The other DBs are in Wayne's and DHB's jerseys at the LOS. I want to see if there are any adjustments as we move forward in the game.

Good point. That's exactly what the Ravens did to him in the playoffs and held him to one catch over 9 yards. That catch was 25 yards on 3rd and 26 and he only had one first down in the game.

 

[cstu]

Despite long odds he has posted in back to back season 975/4 and 606/5 on an awful Oak team. This notion that he's never accomplished anything is as false as it gets.

DHB's 2011 was actually very impressive to me. He missed a game and wasn't involved much in the next and was inexplicably was left out of the game plan weeks 9 and 10, but still almost put up 1000 yards. If you pro-rate the 12 games he received more than 3 targets he would have had 83/1293/5.

 

[timschochet]

From Sigmund Bloom:

TY Hilton is clearly the second best talent in the wide receiver corps, but the team wants to see what they got in Darrius Heyward-Bey.

I really think this is accurate. The coaches already know what Hilton has to offer- they want to see more of DHB in the preseason. Once the season starts, Hilton will be much more prominently featured. In fact, Hilton may become the WR1 on the team this year.

 

[JuniorNB]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

The most critical question to be answered by the Hilton backers is simple. If Hilton is so vastly superior to DHb then why can't he pass him on the depth chart? Especially seeing that he's got a year in that system and the coaches all know him? Maybe it's because he's simply not the talent you think or perhaps DHB is just better than you want to acknowledge. I'd side with the latter.

Same can be said for Randall Cobb. Why couldn't he get ahead of Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings in Green Bay? Maybe it's stature? Maybe it's because the other guys are outside, stretching the field, while the small, dynamic guy comes in off the bench and works underneath. I think Green Bay's use of Cobb is the perfect comparison to how Indy will use Hilton. And the second half of last season and his performance in this year's preseason makes it evident that he's as dangerous to opponents as Cobb is. So, study depth charts and become enamored by the "starter" label. The smart owners will be inserting the big play guy with unlimited upside. I don't know about your league, but mine doesn't give us bonus points for being listed as a starter.

 

[Hoss Style]

Wow.... this thread is all over the place.

I don't have a dog in this race, but what's apparent to me is that there is some heavy risk taking Hilton as a 6th-7th round pick due to the discussion on how much time Hilton has on the field as DHB. Personally, I'll take Mile Austin at that spot and be happy about a guy that's definitely involved in an offense that will be passing a lot in the NFC East. I do think Indy will be running some 3-WR sets which brings value to everyone there. Just how much value is the question.

IMO, if I can take a receiver at Rd 14-15 that could put up WR3/4 numbers for WR 5/6 price, I'll take that to the bank every week. Right now, you have to pay to get Hilton. It is what it is.

I agree with you on Austin. I'd take him over Hilton. I still can't believe Austin's in that group around where Hilton's being taken.

 

[jurb26]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

The most critical question to be answered by the Hilton backers is simple. If Hilton is so vastly superior to DHb then why can't he pass him on the depth chart? Especially seeing that he's got a year in that system and the coaches all know him? Maybe it's because he's simply not the talent you think or perhaps DHB is just better than you want to acknowledge. I'd side with the latter.

Same can be said for Randall Cobb. Why couldn't he get ahead of Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings in Green Bay? Maybe it's stature? Maybe it's because the other guys are outside, stretching the field, while the small, dynamic guy comes in off the bench and works underneath. I think Green Bay's use of Cobb is the perfect comparison to how Indy will use Hilton. And the second half of last season and his performance in this year's preseason makes it evident that he's as dangerous to opponents as Cobb is. So, study depth charts and become enamored by the "starter" label. The smart owners will be inserting the big play guy with unlimited upside. I don't know about your league, but mine doesn't give us bonus points for being listed as a starter.

This isn't about a depth chart. It's about the targets each player is likely to see based off their role in the offense. Could Hilton get more targets than DHB from he WR3 role? Sure, I just don't find it likely. Being the WR2 should mean more time in the field and that should produce more targets. Could Hilton simply do more with his targets than DHB? Again sure. I just don't think he will. DHB will prove a more capable WR2 in this offense than Avery.

How do you see the targets breaking down IF the roles remain as they are currently? Is that a better question?

 

[Hoss Style]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

Did this actually happen? Taking a quick look through, I saw one guy projecting Hilton for slightly lower numbers than last year (presumably because he thinks DHB is better than Avery, and the offense might slow down a tick from its legendary pace), a whole bunch of people saying that yes, Hilton would be better, but maybe not so much better that he's worth where he's being drafted, and a handful of people who think he's a top five overall WR.

The discussion, thus, doesn't really seem to be DHB versus Hilton. It's how DHB's presence and role effect Hilton, and thus Hilton versus the WR's who are getting drafted around him. Like the guy below said, it's more Hilton vs. Austin (either one), Boldin, Jennings, Stevie J, etc. Because that's whose production you're passing on if you take Hilton instead. And if you're confident he'll be a top 10 overall type receiver, presumably you're not risking having him fall to you at his ADP, so it's Hilton versus Desean, Garcon, Steve Smith, etc. for you guys.

In either scenario, you're not passing on DHB to take Hilton -- you can just take him for free.

I was responding to the guy projecting DHB with more TDs and yards than Hilton. Hence the "worse than DHB" part. If you take this one line, sure it sounds different. But I started the post talking about the DHB comparison someone made and the line immediately after the one you quoted continues the DHB comparison.

I've never said Hilton is a steal where he's being drafted. I think he's going too high, honestly. But I think there's a decent shot he outperforms where he's being picked. Just not enough to draft him over the likes of Austin, etc.

 

[Pipes]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

Did this actually happen? Taking a quick look through, I saw one guy projecting Hilton for slightly lower numbers than last year (presumably because he thinks DHB is better than Avery, and the offense might slow down a tick from its legendary pace), a whole bunch of people saying that yes, Hilton would be better, but maybe not so much better that he's worth where he's being drafted, and a handful of people who think he's a top five overall WR.The discussion, thus, doesn't really seem to be DHB versus Hilton. It's how DHB's presence and role effect Hilton, and thus Hilton versus the WR's who are getting drafted around him. Like the guy below said, it's more Hilton vs. Austin (either one), Boldin, Jennings, Stevie J, etc. Because that's whose production you're passing on if you take Hilton instead. And if you're confident he'll be a top 10 overall type receiver, presumably you're not risking having him fall to you at his ADP, so it's Hilton versus Desean, Garcon, Steve Smith, etc. for you guys.

In either scenario, you're not passing on DHB to take Hilton -- you can just take him for free.

I really don't see why so many Hilton owners feel there is even a need to bash DHB. Insecurity is suppose. Like you and I said earlier in the thread DHB is almost a free hedge to Hilton. His ADP is round 14! This seems more like an emotional thing to me than a rational one. If you like Hilton that much just draft both and be happy you don't have to worry about it.

Why are you assuming TY owners aren't doing this? I did and I think many are. I'm just starting TY over DHB because I think he's better. Not a slight on DHB and if DHB outperforms TY I'll make the change.

 

[massraider]

Could Hilton simply do more with his targets than DHB? Again sure. I just don't think he will.

We'll just save this one for posterity.

 

[Pipes]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

The most critical question to be answered by the Hilton backers is simple. If Hilton is so vastly superior to DHb then why can't he pass him on the depth chart? Especially seeing that he's got a year in that system and the coaches all know him? Maybe it's because he's simply not the talent you think or perhaps DHB is just better than you want to acknowledge. I'd side with the latter.

Same can be said for Randall Cobb. Why couldn't he get ahead of Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings in Green Bay? Maybe it's stature? Maybe it's because the other guys are outside, stretching the field, while the small, dynamic guy comes in off the bench and works underneath. I think Green Bay's use of Cobb is the perfect comparison to how Indy will use Hilton. And the second half of last season and his performance in this year's preseason makes it evident that he's as dangerous to opponents as Cobb is. So, study depth charts and become enamored by the "starter" label. The smart owners will be inserting the big play guy with unlimited upside. I don't know about your league, but mine doesn't give us bonus points for being listed as a starter.

This isn't about a depth chart. It's about the targets each player is likely to see based off their role in the offense.Could Hilton get more targets than DHB from he WR3 role? Sure, I just don't find it likely. Being the WR2 should mean more time in the field and that should produce more targets. Could Hilton simply do more with his targets than DHB? Again sure. I just don't think he will. DHB will prove a more capable WR2 in this offense than Avery.

How do you see the targets breaking down IF the roles remain as they are currently? Is that a better question?

What exactly is TY's role going to be? It seems like your assuming that TY is just going to be a WR3 and nothing more. I've heard many said that Hamilton's going to be using alot of 2 TE sets yet both the Colts TE's are injured and even when healthy Fleener has been underwhelming at best. Will TY outperform DHB? Who knows but I don't think it's as simple is saying WR1 will get 150 targets, WR2 120 targets and so forth. I like what I see in TY and am fully on board. Call it passing the eyeball test, a hunch whatever you like but it looks like this kid is special. I typically don't build a fantasy team around hunches but am making an exception in TY's case. I think Luck and TY will be the next great QB/WR combo...it may not fully develop in 2013 but I think it will develop into something great.

 

[Hoss Style]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

Did this actually happen? Taking a quick look through, I saw one guy projecting Hilton for slightly lower numbers than last year (presumably because he thinks DHB is better than Avery, and the offense might slow down a tick from its legendary pace), a whole bunch of people saying that yes, Hilton would be better, but maybe not so much better that he's worth where he's being drafted, and a handful of people who think he's a top five overall WR.The discussion, thus, doesn't really seem to be DHB versus Hilton. It's how DHB's presence and role effect Hilton, and thus Hilton versus the WR's who are getting drafted around him. Like the guy below said, it's more Hilton vs. Austin (either one), Boldin, Jennings, Stevie J, etc. Because that's whose production you're passing on if you take Hilton instead. And if you're confident he'll be a top 10 overall type receiver, presumably you're not risking having him fall to you at his ADP, so it's Hilton versus Desean, Garcon, Steve Smith, etc. for you guys.

In either scenario, you're not passing on DHB to take Hilton -- you can just take him for free.

It didn't happen. I believe ny projections were the lowest for Hilton and I have him with more receptions, more yes but 2 less TDs. I don't find it likely he repeats 17+ yds per catch and with a few less big plays the TDs come down. Like you said, I believe DHB will perform better than Avery did in the same role.As for what there is to like about DHB, really it's simple. He's got opportunity. Last year Avery saw 120 targets in the same role DHB is locked into now. That is more targets than DHB has ever seen and they will be coming in a much improved situation for him. Oak was putrid. On top of that, DHB is a guy who has vastly improved all 4 years in the NFL. His rookie season saw him with a drop rate of near 36%. That rate has systematically decreased every year to around 6% last year. People are talking about Hilton and his work ethic to improve. Well, DHB has equal if not better work ethic and has shown tangible improvement for 4 years. Also, coaches are raving anout him just like they are about Hilton. These things are a push and meaningless imo. He's also never played a full season and has battle injuries in each of the past 2 seasons. Despite long odds he has posted in back to back season 975/4 and 606/5 on an awful Oak team. This notion that he's never accomplished anything is as false as it gets.

The most critical question to be answered by the Hilton backers is simple. If Hilton is so vastly superior to DHb then why can't he pass him on the depth chart? Especially seeing that he's got a year in that system and the coaches all know him? Maybe it's because he's simply not the talent you think or perhaps DHB is just better than you want to acknowledge. I'd side with the latter.

I don't see the roles of the players changing much from last year and therefor I can't project Hilton higher than DHB. DHB is looking at approximately 120 targets, Avery's number from last year. Hilton is looking at 90, his number from last year. If they roles change, so will my projections. Also, if one of the TEs or some other major news about the offense comes up then ill adjust then as well.

I really don't see why so many Hilton owners feel there is even a need to bash DHB. Insecurity is suppose. Like you and I said earlier in the thread DHB is almost a free hedge to Hilton. His ADP is round 14! This seems more like an emotional thing to me than a rational one. If you like Hilton that much just draft both and be happy you don't have to worry about it.

Yeah, it's our insecurities that make us want to say we think that Hilton is better than DHB.

Or it could be that DHB's been in the league for a while, we've gotten to see him and many of us think he is who he is. And Hilton is a rookie who you are projecting to do no better than last year in his second year - ignoring tha fact that he outproduced that #1 WR in the last half of the season and should improve his next year. I've consistantly said he might be going too high. I also think he's shown a lot and could explode this year. Why this bothers you is beyond me. Almost every expert is saying Hilton is superior to DHB, but you make us Hilton supporters out to be "bashers" of DHB. Others may be, but I'm not. I'm just saying I think Hilton's better, and history shows this so far.

I could be wrong.

I think projecting DHB for more TDs is off base. That's all. Nothing personal.

 

[JuniorNB]

And I wouldn't be surprised to see Hilton getting end-arounds, inside handoffs, and lots of bubble screens. They are going to do everything they can to get the ball in the hands of their playmaker.

 

[Man of Zen]

It baffles me how, even if DHB is the #2 WR, you think Hilton will produce much worse this year (even if he stays as the #3).

The most critical question to be answered by the Hilton backers is simple. If Hilton is so vastly superior to DHb then why can't he pass him on the depth chart? Especially seeing that he's got a year in that system and the coaches all know him? Maybe it's because he's simply not the talent you think or perhaps DHB is just better than you want to acknowledge. I'd side with the latter.

Same can be said for Randall Cobb. Why couldn't he get ahead of Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings in Green Bay? Maybe it's stature? Maybe it's because the other guys are outside, stretching the field, while the small, dynamic guy comes in off the bench and works underneath. I think Green Bay's use of Cobb is the perfect comparison to how Indy will use Hilton. And the second half of last season and his performance in this year's preseason makes it evident that he's as dangerous to opponents as Cobb is. So, study depth charts and become enamored by the "starter" label. The smart owners will be inserting the big play guy with unlimited upside. I don't know about your league, but mine doesn't give us bonus points for being listed as a starter.

Yet Cobb was limited quite a bit as a fantasy producer until such time as the starters ahead of him were themselves limited by injuries.