SeanTaylor21
Footballguy
Based off of what we know RIGHT NOW, I agree with these projections. Could be visa versa but to project either for 1K yards and double digit scores is insane. I think both can be serviceable.
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How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Man of Zen
- Start date
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Hilton has 3 TDs in this preseason alone. Unless he gets hurt, no way he only gets 5. Luck LOVES him in the red zone. Plus he's good enough after the catch to break a few longer ones.
My prediction for 2013:
DHB 50- 825- 5
Hilton 60- 950-9
Both of these guys are very fast, but projecting for 16 ypr in an offense based on short passes is a mistake, IMO.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Just about all of the deep shots will be to Hilton. That does wonders for YPC.
We Tigers
Footballguy
Since I was the one asking for projections, I'll play:
Wayne: 90/1100
DHB: 48/640
Hilton: 62/900
TEs: 80/920
RBs: 45/360
That's 3920, which probably leaves 300-500 yards for other receivers. I might be lowballing a couple guys, but I'll note that I don't think Wayne is one of them, especially if he's going to be the one in the slot on 3WR sets. I don't pretend to know how TDs will be divvied up until I see more of the tight ends, but I expect 6+ for Hilton.
The appeal, of course, is that he's an unknown quantity to an extent, and that with his skillset he could go all DeSean Jackson second season and blow up the league. He has the biggest upside of this receiver group.
Wayne: 90/1100
DHB: 48/640
Hilton: 62/900
TEs: 80/920
RBs: 45/360
That's 3920, which probably leaves 300-500 yards for other receivers. I might be lowballing a couple guys, but I'll note that I don't think Wayne is one of them, especially if he's going to be the one in the slot on 3WR sets. I don't pretend to know how TDs will be divvied up until I see more of the tight ends, but I expect 6+ for Hilton.
The appeal, of course, is that he's an unknown quantity to an extent, and that with his skillset he could go all DeSean Jackson second season and blow up the league. He has the biggest upside of this receiver group.
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cstu
Footballguy
That is as good as Santana Moss' best season when he was the #1 WR for the Redskins.
cstu
Footballguy
I think that's about right for Hilton's catches and yards, but I expect him to get more TD's.
Pipes
Footballguy
No funnier than the guy predicting worse stats for TY than Heyward-Bey. Sometimes I think we get caught up too much in WR1, WR2, WR3 designations. All I know is that Hilton passes the eyeball test. He looks like a much better WR than Heyward-Bey and Luck seems to have developed quite a repoire with him. How that translates to real world stats I don't know but what I do know he's the Colts best playmaker. He may not get the yards that Wayne does but this kid can ball and I'm a firm believer that the cream rises to the top...meaning the Colts won't be able to keep him off the field. I'm thinking something along the lines of 70 Rec 1080 yards 10 Tds.at the last two Hilton projections. You guys aren't projecting for both 2013 and 2014 are you?
By the way I think Wayne's targets will decrease as the season goes on. He'll still be a very good WR but Hilton will be Luck's go to guy by the end of the season. I see something like 80 Rec 950 yards and 6 TDs for Wayne and 45 Rec 600 yards and 4 Tds for DHB.
Saint
Footballguy
that projection is crazy. that projection is Calvin Johnson elite. 224 Fantasy points nonppr. Put down the pipe and come back to earth
I wasn't supporting the projection numbers (mine were 950 yds, 9 Tds). I was comparing Hilton to a younger Santana Moss.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I agree 100% with this.No funnier than the guy predicting worse stats for TY than Heyward-Bey. Sometimes I think we get caught up too much in WR1, WR2, WR3 designations. All I know is that Hilton passes the eyeball test. He looks like a much better WR than Heyward-Bey and Luck seems to have developed quite a repoire with him. How that translates to real world stats I don't know but what I do know he's the Colts best playmaker. He may not get the yards that Wayne does but this kid can ball and I'm a firm believer that the cream rises to the top...meaning the Colts won't be able to keep him off the field. I'm thinking something along the lines of 70 Rec 1080 yards 10 Tds.
By the way I think Wayne's targets will decrease as the season goes on. He'll still be a very good WR but Hilton will be Luck's go to guy by the end of the season. I see something like 80 Rec 950 yards and 6 TDs for Wayne and 45 Rec 600 yards and 4 Tds for DHB.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I admire the passion, but I can't get on board with the idea that projecting a starter for slightly better numbers than a situational player is as zany as projecting that situational player to challenge for top WR in football.I agree 100% with this.No funnier than the guy predicting worse stats for TY than Heyward-Bey. Sometimes I think we get caught up too much in WR1, WR2, WR3 designations. All I know is that Hilton passes the eyeball test. He looks like a much better WR than Heyward-Bey and Luck seems to have developed quite a repoire with him. How that translates to real world stats I don't know but what I do know he's the Colts best playmaker. He may not get the yards that Wayne does but this kid can ball and I'm a firm believer that the cream rises to the top...meaning the Colts won't be able to keep him off the field. I'm thinking something along the lines of 70 Rec 1080 yards 10 Tds.
By the way I think Wayne's targets will decrease as the season goes on. He'll still be a very good WR but Hilton will be Luck's go to guy by the end of the season. I see something like 80 Rec 950 yards and 6 TDs for Wayne and 45 Rec 600 yards and 4 Tds for DHB.
jurb26
Footballguy
Hilton had 7 TDs all of last year, which I find more relevant than this preseason.
jurb26
Footballguy
Exactly. If Hilton gets names a starter tomorrow ill gladly reverse my projections. Until then, I stand by these.I admire the passion, but I can't get on board with the idea that projecting a starter for slightly better numbers than a situational player is as zany as projecting that situational player to challenge for top WR in football.I agree 100% with this.No funnier than the guy predicting worse stats for TY than Heyward-Bey. Sometimes I think we get caught up too much in WR1, WR2, WR3 designations. All I know is that Hilton passes the eyeball test. He looks like a much better WR than Heyward-Bey and Luck seems to have developed quite a repoire with him. How that translates to real world stats I don't know but what I do know he's the Colts best playmaker. He may not get the yards that Wayne does but this kid can ball and I'm a firm believer that the cream rises to the top...meaning the Colts won't be able to keep him off the field. I'm thinking something along the lines of 70 Rec 1080 yards 10 Tds.By the way I think Wayne's targets will decrease as the season goes on. He'll still be a very good WR but Hilton will be Luck's go to guy by the end of the season. I see something like 80 Rec 950 yards and 6 TDs for Wayne and 45 Rec 600 yards and 4 Tds for DHB.
So getting two more than that, with another year under his belt and another year working with Luck, is outrageous?
Pipes
Footballguy
Why do you make that sound like a bad thing? Good chance he can improve on that as he was hurt at the beginning of the year and it took him a while to get up to speed and break into the rotation.
Honestly I think all 3 of these guys can put up solid numbers...something tells me Andrew Luck may be the one who's undervalued.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I don't usually get into the misspellings and grammar mistakes, but this one gave me a good chuckle. It was an excellent attempt and looks like a valiant effort on some French kinda sounding word.
Rapport: R-E-P-O-I-R-E. X
massraider
Footballguy
I find it relevant that all of those TDs came after week 8. First half of his rookie year, 1 TD. Rookie QB. 2nd half of rookie year, 6 TD.
Avery's numbers last year: 60/781/3. Being the WR3 hasn't really hurt Hilton's TD numbers so far.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
2012 stat breakdown...
TY in the red zone: 5 receptions, 2 TD's.
Avery in the red zone: 5 receptions, 3 TD's.
Wayne in the red zone: 7 receptions, 4 TD's.
Allen in the red zone: 6 receptions, 3 TD's.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
All I know is that someone is going to have fun bumping this thread in December.
cstu
Footballguy
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I actually kind of believe in him, and I think the guys projecting things in the 65/900/9 range probably won't prove to be far off.
The only downer to me is that I've been hearing a lot of pro-Hilton talk all summer, and I started this so I could understand the justification, but a lot of the justification is just flat out wrong. Like, e.g., the "Luck loves him in the red zone" comment above, when he was clearly Luck's least prolific red zone target among guys who got any sort of usage.
Guy's got talent, and I continue to think that although their bodies aren't similar, Joey Galloway is a good way to look at T.Y.'s ceiling. If he gets there, then next year we can have the talk about whether it's worth weathering the occasional disappearing acts to get to the big weeks. But till then...
The only downer to me is that I've been hearing a lot of pro-Hilton talk all summer, and I started this so I could understand the justification, but a lot of the justification is just flat out wrong. Like, e.g., the "Luck loves him in the red zone" comment above, when he was clearly Luck's least prolific red zone target among guys who got any sort of usage.
Guy's got talent, and I continue to think that although their bodies aren't similar, Joey Galloway is a good way to look at T.Y.'s ceiling. If he gets there, then next year we can have the talk about whether it's worth weathering the occasional disappearing acts to get to the big weeks. But till then...
cstu
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Lol, from the way all these Hilton owners were talking I was expecting that to be a LOT more.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I also wouldn't get too caught up in who is "starting" and who isn't. Indy will be in 3-WR sets quite often.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Man of Zen
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Why do people keep saying this? I was under the impression they were using 2 TE sets most often. Isn't that their base offense?
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I don't think the Colts' running game scares anyone. Additionally, the "improved" defense will have to be proven during the regular season. T.Y. is clearly an emerging star and reminds me a lot of DeSean Jackson. If you look at Hilton's 2012 game tape, it's scary how often he just makes the secondary look terrible. Do the Colts want to throw the ball 40 times per game? No. But even if Luck only throws it 25 times a game, Hilton will still be torching defenses like he did last year and Luck will still be targeting Hilton.
jurb26
Footballguy
Maybe we should just prorate his best quarter of a game and then we will get near some of these projections?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Almost always on 1st down (2:00 drills aside), I would guess. Still plenty of snaps for everyone. Hilton won't be a forgotten man.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
This entire DHB vs. Hilton "controversy" just seems like a smokescreen. DHB was very raw and drafted six rounds too early by the Raiders. Oakland has suffered at least 15 years of awful drafts, and DHB was one of the worst. Hilton, on the other hand, is a gifted WR with the skills necessary to be a superstar.
The emporer has no clothes.
A lot more? Lol Those are great numbers. You've been getting crushed in this thread. And just got crushed again.
jurb26
Footballguy
No, I just like pointing out the absurd. I have no dog in this fight. Well, I have Luck so I guess I sort of do. In the end all care about is Luck succeeding in this case. If that happens because of Hilton blowing up, so be it. If it happens because DHB blow up, just as good. Hell I don't care if D. Allen blows up. The love affair some of you have with Hilton is hilarious though.
jurb26
Footballguy
Right, those numbers are so good they don't even approach most of the Hilton projections in this thread.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
75 yards a game and a TD every 1.5 games is far from absurd.
I've only seen one or two projections in this entire thread that had him over 1000 yards and double digit TDs. Once again, you don't know what you're talking about. Starting to become a trend.
jurb26
Footballguy
LOL, yeah because outside of my projections there are exactly 3 projections posted. 2 of which are OVER 1100 yds and double digit TDs. Try again....
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I love it when Junior i-fights with people. Ask for his thoughts on Tiger Woods. 
jurb26
Footballguy
Nah, I'll just leave my responses to people who are actually reading the thread from now on.I love it when Junior i-fights with people. Ask for his thoughts on Tiger Woods.
cstu
Footballguy
Torrey Smith is the #1 for the Ravens and can't reach those numbers despite being bigger with arguably better talent. I remember after Smith's 50/841/7 rookie year people believed he was going to blow up like the numbers you mentioned. It didn't happen for him as the #1 so I think it'll be tough for Hilton as the #3 (or even #2 if he beats out DHB).
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
At least we can agree on something in this thread. INah, I'll just leave my responses to people who are actually reading the thread from now on.I love it when Junior i-fights with people. Ask for his thoughts on Tiger Woods.
Luck. Exactly how you would draw up a QB. Would love to see him in a fun offense more like Brees gets to run in New Orleans, or Stafford in Detroit, but he'll be a star no matter what system he's in.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Not unfair. Two comments though. That offense has been run-heavy. I can't see that happening in Indy. The personnel is better at QB/WR than RB. Also, Smith is the #1 receiver NOW. But I'm not sure how you can say Boldin wasn't the main option in the passing game.
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