How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

Agree with Jurb here. I've said all preseason long that DHB is good for Hilton's game.

Hilton will have lots of space over the middle (along with Fleener) due to DHB drawing attention outside and over the top.

If Hilton were starting in the outside, sans DHB, then he isn't as effective because that means a lesser WR3 is playing the slot.

As a Colts homer, I've been able to attend TC and see what others are just coming to realize.

 

[Hoss Style]

Guys, he only really played in 8 games last year.

This is incorrect. Last season, Hilton played more than 50% of the team's snaps in 11 games, and over 43% of the snaps in 3 other games.

Not sure how you can argue with me there. Stats for snaps aren't what I was talking about.Maybe you didn't see the "really" part of the statement. If I had meant he wasn't in the game in some way, shape or form then I would have written "He only played in 8 games last year." See the difference?

I am a big Hilton fan and was last year as well. You can argue with the semantics of "really" in my statement, but not with the fact that he wasn't included in the gameplan much for the first half of the season, wasn't thrown to that often or even looked at much by Luck. In the second half of the season he was and he exploded.

Sorry for the confusion of the wording of that sentence. I thought it was clear, but looking back, maybe not. I think it's obvious, though, that I didn't mean he wasn't on the field at all for the first part of the season.

It wasn't obvious. The term "played" was the problem with your post. He played a lot in 14 regular season games. There is no arguing that.

Furthermore, he had at least 4 targets in 12 regular season games, per PFF. You say he wasn't very involved in the game plan in the first half of the season, yet he had 7 targets in the Colts' third game and 9 targets in their 4th game. He had 43 targets in the Colts' first 8 games and 45 targets in their last 8 games. So it doesn't seem like your point is valid.

He was more effective in the second half, but that's not what you seem to be saying. And that is also unsurprising for a rookie.

Man, this is why it's such a pain sometimes to post. I want to keep it on topic but also am really wondering if you don't understand what I'm saying here.

Ok, I'll give it one last shot. I watched all his plays last year. I realized it's hard to emphasize the word "really" in my original post, as if I was talking to someone, and so my statement might have not been understood. After apologizing and explaining what I meant, if you can't differentiate between:

He didn't really play 8 games last year

from

He didn't play 8 games last year

then I can't help you there.

You brought up "snap percentage". Since I watched the games I tried to explain what I saw. His snap percentage rose during certain games, much of them later in the season. That's just the way it is. I can't throw any more numbers out to make that more clear.

You then brought up targets. I'll try to explain that he wasn't utilized as much in the game plan during the first half of the season. There is no argument there. You know those 9 targets you are talking about in the 4th game? I remember that game. Indy got beat down and lost by 30 points or so. They threw like mad men to try to catch up. And Hilton still only played 49% of the snaps even through they were playing catch up.

I'm trying to say that Hilton was more involved in gameplans as the season went on; as in "He really didn't get to play in half those games," said sarcastically which doesn't come across well in posts, I understand.

I was just contributing to the thread for those that maybe don't have Rewind and couldn't see every play. I explained to you about the snap counts. I've just explained the rise of targets in certain games (the game 3 you mentioned) and also that later in the season it seemed Luck was looking for him more and there were plays run specifically for him.

That's all. If you don't understand me explaining what I saw, fine. Believe me, I get it. Maybe some other forum readers will and it'll help them. Who knows. Apologies all around from my side.

*Wanted to add* - There's an article in an Indy newspaper site that used the same phrase to the effect of "He didn't play 8 games or so". I linked it somewhere, I think. Feel free to email that writer and maybe he can explain what we mean better than I.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I feel like Hilton owners/supporters are being extremely irrational on this topic. The bottom line for me is simple. Hilton has an ADP of 78 overall. That is approximately WR32. DHB I just drafted at pick 170 yesterday. That is approximately WR70. So, the guy who running with the first team on a team that passes a good amount is getting drafted roughly 9 rounds later.

I've said it before but I'll say it again. I really don't see any tangible difference in ability between these 2 guys. They are different kinds of players, Hilton is more suited for a slot role IMO. I think this is why DHB is getting the 2 WR looks, personally. Still, I think both are pretty good NFL WRs in their own way.

I have no idea who will perform better by seasons end out of these guys. I do know that the value discrepancy is heavily favoring DHB though.

In my draft, I was really exited about taking TY Hilton, thinking I could get him in the 8th or 9th round, but he went #81 overall, and when DHB fell all the way to pick #189, it was a no brainer. People must have a really warped view of these two receivers. I don't see that much of a disparity fantasy wise. DHB could take the same role as Avery last year when Avery and Hilton split up the primary #2 role last year. Don't get me wrong. I still would much rather have Hilton over DHB. But I don't think the value is 100+ picks in difference. Either Hilton is overvalued or DHB is undervalued. I think it's a little bit of both.

With a couple of drafts still to go, if Hilton continues to go early, I'll probably miss out on him, but DHB looks like nice value at the end of drafts.

 

[ponchsox]

It really doesn't matter, Hilton is going to be on the field and will put up WR2 numbers.

 

[jurb26]

It really doesn't matter, Hilton is going to be on the field and will put up WR2 numbers.

What kind of numbers do you see DHB putting up then? He too will be on the field.

 

[Hoss Style]

Agree with Jurb here. I've said all preseason long that DHB is good for Hilton's game.

Hilton will have lots of space over the middle (along with Fleener) due to DHB drawing attention outside and over the top.

If Hilton were starting in the outside, sans DHB, then he isn't as effective because that means a lesser WR3 is playing the slot.

As a Colts homer, I've been able to attend TC and see what others are just coming to realize.

As a Colts homer, do you really think DHB can hold T.Y. out of that #2 slot? I think that's what most of us Hilton-lovers are basing our expectations on. As a Bronco fan I got to see DHB twice every year for full games and then I'd keep track of the Raiders on and off to see how they were doing. DHB never impressed me to make me think he's a starting WR in the NFL.

You really think DHB can hold that spot all year?

 

[Hoss Style]

It really doesn't matter, Hilton is going to be on the field and will put up WR2 numbers.

What kind of numbers do you see DHB putting up then? He too will be on the field.

Yeah, see - that's the thing, jurb - I don't think DHB will stay on the field (as the #2, I mean).

If I had to look at each's history, wouldn't you agree that DHB is more likely to lose that spot than T.Y. is to stay the #3? Honestly curious on your opinion, here.

 

[pizzatyme]

Agree with Jurb here. I've said all preseason

long that DHB is good for Hilton's game.

Hilton will have lots of space over the middle (along with Fleener) due to DHB drawing

attention outside and over the top.

If Hilton were starting in the outside, sans DHB, then he isn't as effective because that means a

lesser WR3 is playing the slot.

As a Colts homer, I've been able to attend TC and see what others are just coming to realize.

As a Colts homer, do you really think DHB can hold T.Y. out of that #2 slot? I think that's what most of us Hilton-lovers are basing our expectations on. As a Bronco fan I got to see DHB twice every year for full games and then I'd keep track of the Raiders on and off to see how they were doing. DHB never impressed me to

make me think he's a starting WR in the NFL.

You really think DHB can hold that spot all year?

Yes. If he is healthy, he will be opposite Wayne. They focused on him a lot in TC. This is why we got to hear about the drops. I know he limits Hilton's upside a bit, but I see those two with very similar overall numbers at the end of the year. Hilton more TDs, DHB more Rec, similar Rec yards.

 

[jurb26]

It really doesn't matter, Hilton is going to be on the field and will put up WR2 numbers.

What kind of numbers do you see DHB putting up then? He too will be on the field.

Yeah, see - that's the thing, jurb - I don't think DHB will stay on the field (as the #2, I mean). If I had to look at each's history, wouldn't you agree that DHB is more likely to lose that spot than T.Y. is to stay the #3? Honestly curious on your opinion, here.

I think by and large, DHB has a bad rep among a lot of fantasy footballers and its gone a bit overboard. I understand why, I just think he's much better than he's given credit for. When you are drafted 7 overall, I think that was his draft position, and you don't make a significant impact by now it's too be expected. The DHB I have watched over the past 2 years is a player that has improved by leaps and bounds though. He has become a far better route runner and his hands have actually improved a great deal. Is he a top notch WR? Of course not. Then again, neither is Hilton. I think both guys are above average WRs and neither is capable of becoming a WR1 in the NFL. DHB is better suited for the WR2 role in my eyes because he is bigger, plays more physical and can beat a jam. On top of that, he's the best player they have to stretch the field. Hilton is best suited for the slot because he works very well in space, knows where to sit down in the zone coverages and runs good option routes. I don't see a tangible difference in their overall talent level, I just see their talents as vastly different. Personally I think the best thing Indy can do is line them up just like that, Wayne WR1, DHB WR2 and Hilton slot. As a Luck owner in dynasty I believe that gives their passing attack the most potent combination.

 

[Hoss Style]

I guess that's the crux of the disagreement between many of us then -

I think Hilton is superior to DHB in almost every way - especially stretching the field. DHB's got speed but T.Y. has shown me he has that special ability to get by defenders with his speed, footwork, jukes, etc. I think he's much better at stretching the field.

DHB's got a good QB in a good system, now. Maybe you're right (I hope not ). Will definately be interesting to watch unfold this season.

Pizzatyme's comments really worry me, though. He's a homer and saw the TCs. I hope he's wrong, too. Maybe since he didn't see DHB as much as I did the past few years he's optimistic.

Not saying this is what you guys think, but it seems many just think T.Y. can't be an elite WR because of his size. They throw in other reasons here and there, but it seems people just can't get by his size and think he has to be more "physical". I think he's the type of special player that can do it without elite size.

 

[pizzatyme]

One other point that I think is worth mentioning is the health and play of Fleener and its impact on Hilton's production.

I think if Fleener is healthy then the Colts will play more 2 TE sets which more greatly impacts Hilton.

 

[pizzatyme]

I think Hilton has the speed and moves to operate best in the slot and win those matchup a vs the #3 DB. I'm not sure the same can be said if he were on the outside facing the #2 DB.

 

[Tau837]

Agree with Jurb here. I've said all preseason long that DHB is good for Hilton's game.

Hilton will have lots of space over the middle (along with Fleener) due to DHB drawing attention outside and over the top.

If Hilton were starting in the outside, sans DHB, then he isn't as effective because that means a lesser WR3 is playing the slot.

As a Colts homer, I've been able to attend TC and see what others are just coming to realize.

I've read that when they are going to 3 WR sets, Wayne is moving into the slot. I posted earlier that, per PFF, Hilton has run only 2 routes from the slot this preseason. How would it change your thinking if the Colts use Hilton outside in 3 WR sets rather than in the slot?

 

[Tau837]

Guys, he only really played in 8 games last year.

This is incorrect. Last season, Hilton played more than 50% of the team's snaps in 11 games, and over 43% of the snaps in 3 other games.

Not sure how you can argue with me there. Stats for snaps aren't what I was talking about.Maybe you didn't see the "really" part of the statement. If I had meant he wasn't in the game in some way, shape or form then I would have written "He only played in 8 games last year." See the difference?

I am a big Hilton fan and was last year as well. You can argue with the semantics of "really" in my statement, but not with the fact that he wasn't included in the gameplan much for the first half of the season, wasn't thrown to that often or even looked at much by Luck. In the second half of the season he was and he exploded.

Sorry for the confusion of the wording of that sentence. I thought it was clear, but looking back, maybe not. I think it's obvious, though, that I didn't mean he wasn't on the field at all for the first part of the season.

It wasn't obvious. The term "played" was the problem with your post. He played a lot in 14 regular season games. There is no arguing that.

Furthermore, he had at least 4 targets in 12 regular season games, per PFF. You say he wasn't very involved in the game plan in the first half of the season, yet he had 7 targets in the Colts' third game and 9 targets in their 4th game. He had 43 targets in the Colts' first 8 games and 45 targets in their last 8 games. So it doesn't seem like your point is valid.

He was more effective in the second half, but that's not what you seem to be saying. And that is also unsurprising for a rookie.

Man, this is why it's such a pain sometimes to post. I want to keep it on topic but also am really wondering if you don't understand what I'm saying here.

Ok, I'll give it one last shot. I watched all his plays last year. I realized it's hard to emphasize the word "really" in my original post, as if I was talking to someone, and so my statement might have not been understood. After apologizing and explaining what I meant, if you can't differentiate between:

He didn't really play 8 games last year

from

He didn't play 8 games last year

then I can't help you there.

You brought up "snap percentage". Since I watched the games I tried to explain what I saw. His snap percentage rose during certain games, much of them later in the season. That's just the way it is. I can't throw any more numbers out to make that more clear.

You then brought up targets. I'll try to explain that he wasn't utilized as much in the game plan during the first half of the season. There is no argument there. You know those 9 targets you are talking about in the 4th game? I remember that game. Indy got beat down and lost by 30 points or so. They threw like mad men to try to catch up. And Hilton still only played 49% of the snaps even through they were playing catch up.

I'm trying to say that Hilton was more involved in gameplans as the season went on; as in "He really didn't get to play in half those games," said sarcastically which doesn't come across well in posts, I understand.

I was just contributing to the thread for those that maybe don't have Rewind and couldn't see every play. I explained to you about the snap counts. I've just explained the rise of targets in certain games (the game 3 you mentioned) and also that later in the season it seemed Luck was looking for him more and there were plays run specifically for him.

That's all. If you don't understand me explaining what I saw, fine. Believe me, I get it. Maybe some other forum readers will and it'll help them. Who knows. Apologies all around from my side.

*Wanted to add* - There's an article in an Indy newspaper site that used the same phrase to the effect of "He didn't play 8 games or so". I linked it somewhere, I think. Feel free to email that writer and maybe he can explain what we mean better than I.

Hoss, I understand that you were saying he literally played in more than 8 games but effectively only played in that many. I responded to it because there are no facts (e.g., snaps, targets) that back that up. It's fine if you want to end this tangent of discussion right here.

Part of my point in my posts is that there are a number of reasons to currently expect that Hilton will not receive a non-trivial increase in snaps or targets. I also doubt he'll get behind defenses for as many long TDs this year, which means I expect his numbers to regress.

 

[FF Ninja]

There is literally 0% chance of DHB getting more targets than Hilton.

This pretty much sums up the Hilton fanboys. Totally ignoring the reality of the matter. Thus a ridiculous WR32 ADP for a 3rd WR.

I feel like Hilton owners/supporters are being extremely irrational on this topic. The bottom line for me is simple. Hilton has an ADP of 78 overall. That is approximately WR32. DHB I just drafted at pick 170 yesterday. That is approximately WR70. So, the guy who running with the first team on a team that passes a good amount is getting drafted roughly 9 rounds later.

I've said it before but I'll say it again. I really don't see any tangible difference in ability between these 2 guys. They are different kinds of players, Hilton is more suited for a slot role IMO. I think this is why DHB is getting the 2 WR looks, personally. Still, I think both are pretty good NFL WRs in their own way.

I have no idea who will perform better by seasons end out of these guys. I do know that the value discrepancy is heavily favoring DHB though.

This is pretty much my thinking as well, as I've posted in the DHB and Hilton threads. DHB already has the edge as the starter, he has a first round pedigree (top 10 was a reach, but he was going in the first that year), he's bigger, and he's probably got slightly better hands. If I have room on my roster, I think DHB is a great flyer. There is no way in hell I'm drafting Hilton ahead of Miles Austin. The Hilton hype has reach lunacy levels.

 

[Man of Zen]

One other point that I think is worth mentioning is the health and play of Fleener and its impact on Hilton's production.

I think if Fleener is healthy then the Colts will play more 2 TE sets which more greatly impacts Hilton.

I was sort of waiting for that to come up, as I think the Fleener/Hilton dynamic is maybe the most important on the field, as far as determining Hilton's value goes.

If Fleener struggles with injuries (which there are already some signs he might), or Bradshaw DOESN'T (which would keep Luck safer w/o necessitating bigger packages), or Hilton's talent just pushes another target off the field sooner rather than later, then the 3-wide sets could become the new base.

If that happens, I think it's easy to imagine a Joey Galloway type season from Hilton. If it doesn't, I think he may struggle to separate targets-wise from DHB.

 

[pizzatyme]

Agree with Jurb here. I've said all preseason long that DHB is good for Hilton's game.

Hilton will have lots of space over the middle (along with Fleener) due to DHB drawing attention outside and over the top.

If Hilton were starting in the outside, sans DHB, then he isn't as effective because that means a lesser WR3 is playing the slot.

As a Colts homer, I've been able to attend TC and see what others are just coming to realize.

I've read that when they are going to 3 WR sets, Wayne is moving into the slot. I posted earlier that, per PFF, Hilton has run only 2 routes from the slot this preseason. How would it change your thinking if the Colts use Hilton outside in 3 WR sets rather than in the slot?

I've seen some of that too. Honestly, they've had all 3 WRs and Fleener in every position. They've also had the RB line up outside as a 5th receiving option.

I get it on what PFF is saying, but just look at the Hilton TD against the Browns. Colts were in a bunch formation and Hilton broke the flat route and waltzed into the end zone.

If Hilton to outside, I still see the top DB moving in to cover Wayne and Hilton running crossing routes while Wayne runs the skinny corner route. Net effect, Hilton is open in the middle or Wayne catches the sideline pass.

 

[Man of Zen]

You then brought up targets. I'll try to explain that he wasn't utilized as much in the game plan during the first half of the season. There is no argument there. You know those 9 targets you are talking about in the 4th game? I remember that game. Indy got beat down and lost by 30 points or so. They threw like mad men to try to catch up. And Hilton still only played 49% of the snaps even through they were playing catch up.

I'll only add that as I pointed out earlier, this was true of the 2nd half of the season as well, and is often true of #3 WR's in general. Their targets take off in blowout losses as their team throws a lot from behind against soft defenses happy to match up their nickel backs against the offense's backups in 3- and 4-wide packages.

 

[Tau837]

Here is what I am referencing, from Rotoworld:

T.Y. Hilton caught two passes for 17 yards and a touchdown in the Colts' third preseason game.

He's up to seven receptions for 114 yards and three touchdowns in the preseason. Hilton continues to work only in three- and four-receiver sets with the Colts' first-team offense, while Darrius Heyward-Bey remains the starter opposite Reggie Wayne. Hilton has played almost exclusively outside, rather than in the slot -- that's Wayne's position in the three-wide package. Hilton still offers some breakout potential, but his consistency could be a fairly large fantasy issue as a rotational wideout. The Colts are not using Hilton as an every-down player, and they're implementing far more two-tight end sets. Aug 24 - 11:17 PM

 

[pizzatyme]

Another thing to consider is the Colts tough schedule this year. They play the NFC West outside of the division. I think this will necessitate a pass-first offense as the Colts could very well be playing from behind.

Again, I think it comes down to effectiveness of Fleener in the 2 TE sets.

 

[Apple Jack]

The name of the game is value. DHB is where the value is. TY is not.

 

[cstu]

I guess that's the crux of the disagreement between many of us then -

I think Hilton is superior to DHB in almost every way - especially stretching the field. DHB's got speed but T.Y. has shown me he has that special ability to get by defenders with his speed, footwork, jukes, etc. I think he's much better at stretching the field.

DHB's got a good QB in a good system, now. Maybe you're right (I hope not ). Will definately be interesting to watch unfold this season.

Pizzatyme's comments really worry me, though. He's a homer and saw the TCs. I hope he's wrong, too. Maybe since he didn't see DHB as much as I did the past few years he's optimistic.

Not saying this is what you guys think, but it seems many just think T.Y. can't be an elite WR because of his size. They throw in other reasons here and there, but it seems people just can't get by his size and think he has to be more "physical". I think he's the type of special player that can do it without elite size.

This is just not true. When it comes to short slants over the middle, that's DHB's bread and butter. I haven't seen Hilton do much of that at all. He's not a deep threat despite his speed, but the speed allows him to take a short pass and run quickly for a first down.

 

[zadok]

There are 2 WRs I am targeting for breakout years: TY Hilton and Chris Givens. DHB is a decoy.

 

[timschochet]

The name of the game is value. DHB is where the value is. TY is not.

This is wrong.

Hilton's potential is that he could become, this year, the leading WR on the Colts AND an elite WR in all of football. DHB's potential is that he could become a serviceable fill in during your main guy's bye week. DHB is basically valueless because there are a ton of WRs out there who could equal his numbers every week even if he does start. You can pull them off waiver wire any week you choose. If Hilton doesn't explode, then he will be valueless too- anyone who drafts Hilton is taking a chance that he will explode. But if DHB ends up having more value than Hilton, then neither player is worth taking.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

But if DHB ends up having more value than Hilton, then neither player is worth taking.

So wrong on so many levels. If DHB turns into a stud in Indy, he's not worth the risk in the 16th round? what? Please unpack this for us.

 

[jurb26]

The name of the game is value. DHB is where the value is. TY is not.

This is wrong.Hilton's potential is that he could become, this year, the leading WR on the Colts AND an elite WR in all of football. DHB's potential is that he could become a serviceable fill in during your main guy's bye week. DHB is basically valueless because there are a ton of WRs out there who could equal his numbers every week even if he does start. You can pull them off waiver wire any week you choose. If Hilton doesn't explode, then he will be valueless too- anyone who drafts Hilton is taking a chance that he will explode. But if DHB ends up having more value than Hilton, then neither player is worth taking.

This is probably the most ridiculous view of the situation I've read yet.

 

[SayWhat?]

*Dynasty Discussion*

As others have eluded to, being of the opinion that Hilton is superior to DHB in many facets doesn't change the fact that the Indy staff may continue to feel that DHB is the better option across from Wayne in two WR sets. This would clearly limit Hilton's production this year.

What I'm more concerned about is Hilton's long-term role. Putting all bias aside, does Hilton have the skills to become the Reggie Wayne of this offense when Wayne decides to call it a career? And along these lines, has Wayne at all indicated how much longer he intends to play? This is especially critical for those in keeper leagues, where the benefits of the dynasty league hold-and-wait approach may not be as feasible. Sure wish I had a crystal ball to determine when Wayne was going to retire and if the Colt's re-sign DHB at the conclusion of his one year deal this coming offseason. If Hilton were that good, I sure wouldn't think that DHB would be keeping him off the field in two WR sets.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

DHB is a good route runner, solid blocker, excellent teammate. He's being penciled in as a starter and will join TY and Wayne on 3 receiver sets. He's not dropped a pass all preseason. His speed forces corners to give him a huge cushion at the line and when they try to crowd him or play physical, DHB has the size and toughness to play that game too. His bread and butter is the short turn in routes and slants, and will have a role as a move the chains type wideout. I think the "Raider hate" is so strong, people choose to hate him even after he's moved on.

 

[timschochet]

But if DHB ends up having more value than Hilton, then neither player is worth taking.

So wrong on so many levels. If DHB turns into a stud in Indy, he's not worth the risk in the 16th round? what? Please unpack this for us.

DHB's ceiling, IMO, is not as a stud. I suppose anything's possible. But he's had a pretty good sample size to demonstrate if "stud" were likely. The basis of my comments are that DHB's absolute ceiling is as a WR3, whereas Hilton's absolute ceiling is as a top 10 WR1.

 

[Tau837]

*Dynasty Discussion*

As others have eluded to, being of the opinion that Hilton is superior to DHB in many facets doesn't change the fact that the Indy staff may continue to feel that DHB is the better option across from Wayne in two WR sets. This would clearly limit Hilton's production this year.

What I'm more concerned about is Hilton's long-term role. Putting all bias aside, does Hilton have the skills to become the Reggie Wayne of this offense when Wayne decides to call it a career? And along these lines, has Wayne at all indicated how much longer he intends to play? This is especially critical for those in keeper leagues, where the benefits of the dynasty league hold-and-wait approach may not be as feasible. Sure wish I had a crystal ball to determine when Wayne was going to retire and if the Colt's re-sign DHB at the conclusion of his one year deal this coming offseason. If Hilton were that good, I sure wouldn't think that DHB would be keeping him off the field in two WR sets.

Personally, I'm skeptical that Hilton is good enough to excel against #1 corners and/or against double coverage. If Wayne retires and the Colts don't change their roster and elevate Hilton to their #1 WR, that's what he will face.

 

[timschochet]

DHB is a good route runner, solid blocker, excellent teammate. He's being penciled in as a starter and will join TY and Wayne on 3 receiver sets. He's not dropped a pass all preseason. His speed forces corners to give him a huge cushion at the line and when they try to crowd him or play physical, DHB has the size and toughness to play that game too. His bread and butter is the short turn in routes and slants, and will have a role as a move the chains type wideout. I think the "Raider hate" is so strong, people choose to hate him even after he's moved on.

You figured it out. I don't think much of DHB because I hate the Raiders!

 

[Man of Zen]

The guy did post a respectable if unspectacular 64/97/4 season in 13 starts for the Raiders just two years ago, and the 4 probably isn't as sad as it looks on him, since their leading TD catcher had only 5.

I have trouble looking at that, seeing him move into a starting role with Luck at QB, and saying definitively that WR3 is his absolute ceiling.

I do NOT think DHB has the kind of talent that can keep Hilton off the field. I do, however, think he may have the kind of talent AND the kind of opportunity that keep Hilton from seeing enough opportunity to make the leap.

I'm beginning to come around on the idea of seeing both guys as similarly-valuable bye-week fill ins with upside, but with one costing a valuable early-to-midround pick, and the other essentially being available for free.

 

[Man of Zen]

What I will say is that in the event an injury increases either guy's role in the offense, I think Hilton's upside then becomes considerably higher than DHB's in the same circumstances. He's probably worth a higher pick for that reason alone. I'm just not sure it's a 6th round pick or whatever it costs to get his services these days.

 

[timschochet]

The guy did post a respectable if unspectacular 64/97/4 season in 13 starts for the Raiders just two years ago, and the 4 probably isn't as sad as it looks on him, since their leading TD catcher had only 5.

I have trouble looking at that, seeing him move into a starting role with Luck at QB, and saying definitively that WR3 is his absolute ceiling.

I do NOT think DHB has the kind of talent that can keep Hilton off the field. I do, however, think he may have the kind of talent AND the kind of opportunity that keep Hilton from seeing enough opportunity to make the leap.

I'm beginning to come around on the idea of seeing both guys as similarly-valuable bye-week fill ins with upside, but with one costing a valuable early-to-midround pick, and the other essentially being available for free.

That's too high. I like Hilton, but not enough to spend that kind a pick on him. Last night, in a 10 player draft, I took Hilton in round 11. DHB was taken by somebody in round 15.

 

[Man of Zen]

Hard not to like Hilton's upside if you can get him at that kind of value.

I think the impetus behind the discussion has a lot to do with the fact that recent ADP data suggests he's going a whole lot higher than that in most leagues now. Kudos on the bargain.

 

[Apple Jack]

But if DHB ends up having more value than Hilton, then neither player is worth taking.

So wrong on so many levels. If DHB turns into a stud in Indy, he's not worth the risk in the 16th round? what? Please unpack this for us.

DHB's ceiling, IMO, is not as a stud. I suppose anything's possible. But he's had a pretty good sample size to demonstrate if "stud" were likely. The basis of my comments are that DHB's absolute ceiling is as a WR3, whereas Hilton's absolute ceiling is as a top 10 WR1.

DHB hasn't had Andrew luck throwing to him. And he's sitting on the WW in both of my leagues.

 

[timschochet]

Hard not to like Hilton's upside if you can get him at that kind of value.

I think the impetus behind the discussion has a lot to do with the fact that recent ADP data suggests he's going a whole lot higher than that in most leagues now. Kudos on the bargain.

Thanks. I agree that if Hilton is going in the 6th round that is way too high. There's enough proven "main target" wide receivers out there for everyone to have 2 or 3 on your roster before considering guys like Hilton.

But I still don't understand how DHB can have any value at all in a draft. He's one of 30-40 guys you could pull off waiver wires any week in most leagues.

 

[Man of Zen]

Hard not to like Hilton's upside if you can get him at that kind of value.

I think the impetus behind the discussion has a lot to do with the fact that recent ADP data suggests he's going a whole lot higher than that in most leagues now. Kudos on the bargain.

Thanks. I agree that if Hilton is going in the 6th round that is way too high. There's enough proven "main target" wide receivers out there for everyone to have 2 or 3 on your roster before considering guys like Hilton.

But I still don't understand how DHB can have any value at all in a draft. He's one of 30-40 guys you could pull off waiver wires any week in most leagues.

Well, I think the point is that he's a WR with a first round pedigree, who has shown flashes of potential in recent years, who is a physical specimen, who is healthy, who is in his prime, and who the coaches just awarded a starting WR spot with the most-hyped young QB in ages lobbing him the rock.

If things even remotely begin to come together for him, he WON'T be one of those guys you can pull off waivers any week. So the time to get him for free might be now.

 

[Hoss Style]

I guess that's the crux of the disagreement between many of us then -

I think Hilton is superior to DHB in almost every way - especially stretching the field. DHB's got speed but T.Y. has shown me he has that special ability to get by defenders with his speed, footwork, jukes, etc. I think he's much better at stretching the field.

DHB's got a good QB in a good system, now. Maybe you're right (I hope not ). Will definately be interesting to watch unfold this season.

Pizzatyme's comments really worry me, though. He's a homer and saw the TCs. I hope he's wrong, too. Maybe since he didn't see DHB as much as I did the past few years he's optimistic.

Not saying this is what you guys think, but it seems many just think T.Y. can't be an elite WR because of his size. They throw in other reasons here and there, but it seems people just can't get by his size and think he has to be more "physical". I think he's the type of special player that can do it without elite size.

This is just not true. When it comes to short slants over the middle, that's DHB's bread and butter. I haven't seen Hilton do much of that at all. He's not a deep threat despite his speed, but the speed allows him to take a short pass and run quickly for a first down.

Fair point. Sounds like you've seen more DHB than even I have. I did use the qualifier "almost" though, as I've seen Hilton extensively and DHB a good bit. Just seems to me that Hilton does most things better - and their speeds not much different.

As for the hype, as a Hilton owner, I agree the hype is too high. I'm freely hyping him from a Keeper Owner's viewpoint. I've had him since Week 2 of last year. If I was buying now I'm not so sure I'd target him for the price he's going for. DHB is a better value in redraft, like you guys said.

I still think he takes over that 2 spot at some point this year (or they run 3 WR sets because they don't want to keep him off the field), but Hilton's going in drafts like that's already happened.

Even from a Hilton "buyer" I can agree it's getting a bit excessive.

*Edited* to add that I just went and watched a bunch of his TDs again. He definately is a deep threat. Many of his TD passes were long bombs where he got behind the defense and ran under the ball. He had very few that were short/medium passes that he turned into long ones. I can try to post vids if anyone wants.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

question to me is DHB as talented or more than Donnie Avery? Luck made Avery a lot of money and i have to assume Andrew is going to get better and better. Hilton sure is explosive but the fact of the matter is the coaches who see him day in and day out are leaving him as the 3rd mixture WR. DHB has been getting some slants and Wr screens in preseason like Donnie Avery so it appears he is filling that void and seemingly bringing Hilton in to take the lid off. it worked last year so lather rinse repeat

 

[massraider]

At that ADP, Heyward-Bey definitely has value. He's one of the starting WRs for the QB that threw for more yards than any rookie ever. Heck yeah, he has value there.

I think DHB has value because he's playing with Andrew Luck. TY Hilton has value because he is TY Hilton--and because he is playing with Andrew Luck.

Best case scenario for DHB is as a compiler, who can hopefully get a 5/70 type stat line, those type of weeks. I also think he'll have several 3/28 type weeks. Unfortunately, too many guys on Indy (Wayne/Fleener/Allen) that are intermediate targets. Hilton is the deep threat, the only one. I am sure they will uncork some deep passes to DHB, but he's not a true deep threat, I don't care what he runs, he doesn't play that fast.

Hilton can outscore DHB with one catch. He has flashed a ton of 'special', showing true deep speed, wiggle, and body control. I won't get into the talent argument between the two of them, except to say that Hilton has shown a LOT more than DHB, and is three years younger. DHB is what he is, it is reasonable to expect improvement from Hilton.

I was reading the ADP arguments, so I looked it up. DHB may be one of the better values at the position. WRs in that area include Dobson, Little, Floyd, LaFell, Roberts, and Streater. Heck yes, I'll take him as my WR5 if that's who I am looking at.

Hilton certainly isn't a steal, DeSean, James Jones, Shorts,Tavon Austin in front of him, and Stevie Johnson, Jennings, Mike Williams, Miles Austin behind him. Maybe a little high, but pretty close.

Getting both seems like a pretty viable strategy actually.

 

[We Tigers]

I'm interested to see some projections from the folks who believe Hilton is greatly overvalued/will not see the field enough to be productive. Are we hemming and hawing over 5 catches and 60 yards here? Similarly, are you actually expecting DHB to put up better numbers, or just to limit Hilton's ability to get on the field-i.e., ultimately funneling more receptions to Wayne or the TEs? There's some value to be taken out of the situation either way.

Part of my question comes down to targets--he got 90 last year. Do you see that going up or down?

 

[JackReacher]

Has TY been playing the slot WR or more as a sub to DHB outside this preseason?

Outside. When the Colts go to 3 WR sets, Wayne moves to the slot.

Was that the same last year or did he play more out of the slot?

This will show you everything you need to know from last season.

(Pro tip: Mute the hideous music.)

I liked the music

Like the player even more

 

[jurb26]

My projections for the guys in question are;

DHB;

60 reception, 960 yds, 6 TDs

Hilton;

55 receptions, 880 yds, 5 TDs

 

[Raider Nation]

My projections for the guys in question are;

DHB;

60 reception, 960 yds, 6 TDs

Hilton;

55 receptions, 880 yds, 5 TDs

Wow, we couldn't disagree any more. I'll go....

DHB: 45-510-4

Hilton: 68-1140-11

 

[drake_ovo]

My projections for the guys in question are;

DHB;

60 reception, 960 yds, 6 TDs

Hilton;

55 receptions, 880 yds, 5 TDs

Wow, we couldn't disagree any more. I'll go....

DHB: 45-510-4

Hilton: 68-1140-11

my non bias prediction

DHB: 41-450-2

Hilton: 74-1300-14

 

[Raider Nation]

^^^ NOT my alias.

 

[jurb26]

So you guys are also projecting a Wayne season ending injury I take it, lol.

 

[Raider Nation]

So you guys are also projecting a Wayne season ending injury I take it, lol.

There's plenty to go around. Also, compare Wayne's numbers vs. Hilton's numbers over the final 5 games last year. I won't say it was a changing of the guard, but Luck clearly got more comfortable with T.Y. late in the season and I suspect that will continue. But admittedly, I'm higher on Hilton than just about anyone I know.

 

[Tau837]

at the last two Hilton projections. You guys aren't projecting for both 2013 and 2014 are you?