How do you see the T.Y. Hilton/DHB Split working out? (1 Viewer)

[fCheeze]

It doesn't matter if Hilton is their #1, 2, or 3. He's not a high volume, high target WR. He can make a huge impact with just a few touches. Expect 55-70 catches, 900-1100 yards, and 6-10 TDs.

If you seriously think DHB will dramatically affect Hilton's production you're reaching for straws. There's a reason people aren't high on DHB, he's just not that good. DHB has the chance to become average in INDY, Hilton has the chance to become a star.

The past two years he's produced these numbers:

105/183 (57%) for 1581 yards (15 YPR), 12 drops (6.5% drop rate)

He did that with Carson Palmer and now has luck.

BTW, DHB's yards/target was 8.6, Wayne's last year was 7.6. Wayne had 10 drops last year on 179 targets and DHB had 12 drops over the past two years on 183 targets.

That must mean DHB>>Wayne>>>>Hilton

Come on. DHB has shown very little in his 4 year NFL career (but he played in OAK!!!!). In one year Hilton showed us explosiveness that could lead to a very dynamic sophomore season. I'm not writing DHB off by any stretch, but a Donnie Avery type season is a safe guess.

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

 

[SteckerMVP]

It doesn't matter if Hilton is their #1, 2, or 3. He's not a high volume, high target WR. He can make a huge impact with just a few touches. Expect 55-70 catches, 900-1100 yards, and 6-10 TDs.

If you seriously think DHB will dramatically affect Hilton's production you're reaching for straws. There's a reason people aren't high on DHB, he's just not that good. DHB has the chance to become average in INDY, Hilton has the chance to become a star.

The past two years he's produced these numbers:

105/183 (57%) for 1581 yards (15 YPR), 12 drops (6.5% drop rate)

He did that with Carson Palmer and now has luck.

BTW, DHB's yards/target was 8.6, Wayne's last year was 7.6. Wayne had 10 drops last year on 179 targets and DHB had 12 drops over the past two years on 183 targets.

That must mean DHB>>Wayne>>>>Hilton

Come on. DHB has shown very little in his 4 year NFL career (but he played in OAK!!!!). In one year Hilton showed us explosiveness that could lead to a very dynamic sophomore season. I'm not writing DHB off by any stretch, but a Donnie Avery type season is a safe guess.

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

DHB has great value in late rounds. However, unlike some, I don't see the addition of DHB hurting Hilton's value.

 

[Raider Nation]

DHB is going to Light up the Raiders Week 1 ...

Define "light up"...

 

[Man of Zen]

It doesn't matter if Hilton is their #1, 2, or 3. He's not a high volume, high target WR. He can make a huge impact with just a few touches. Expect 55-70 catches, 900-1100 yards, and 6-10 TDs.

If you seriously think DHB will dramatically affect Hilton's production you're reaching for straws. There's a reason people aren't high on DHB, he's just not that good. DHB has the chance to become average in INDY, Hilton has the chance to become a star.

The past two years he's produced these numbers:

105/183 (57%) for 1581 yards (15 YPR), 12 drops (6.5% drop rate)

He did that with Carson Palmer and now has luck.

BTW, DHB's yards/target was 8.6, Wayne's last year was 7.6. Wayne had 10 drops last year on 179 targets and DHB had 12 drops over the past two years on 183 targets.

That must mean DHB>>Wayne>>>>Hilton

Come on. DHB has shown very little in his 4 year NFL career (but he played in OAK!!!!). In one year Hilton showed us explosiveness that could lead to a very dynamic sophomore season. I'm not writing DHB off by any stretch, but a Donnie Avery type season is a safe guess.

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

DHB has great value in late rounds. However, unlike some, I don't see the addition of DHB hurting Hilton's value.

I think it only "hurts" him insomuch as it relegates him to situational duty for the foreseeable future, again.

TY was already doing about all that could be expected on a per-target basis. He's not making the leap unless he can get starter's touches. And for the time being -- even if it's something as simple as blocking that keeps him under 100 targets -- those targets are looking hard to come by.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

In round 15, that's value. DHB went in the 12th round in my draft last night, and TY went in the 5th. Ahead of Nicks, Decker, Steve Smith, Desean... No way I would reach for TY at that price tag.

 

[SteckerMVP]

It doesn't matter if Hilton is their #1, 2, or 3. He's not a high volume, high target WR. He can make a huge impact with just a few touches. Expect 55-70 catches, 900-1100 yards, and 6-10 TDs.

If you seriously think DHB will dramatically affect Hilton's production you're reaching for straws. There's a reason people aren't high on DHB, he's just not that good. DHB has the chance to become average in INDY, Hilton has the chance to become a star.

The past two years he's produced these numbers:

105/183 (57%) for 1581 yards (15 YPR), 12 drops (6.5% drop rate)

He did that with Carson Palmer and now has luck.

BTW, DHB's yards/target was 8.6, Wayne's last year was 7.6. Wayne had 10 drops last year on 179 targets and DHB had 12 drops over the past two years on 183 targets.

That must mean DHB>>Wayne>>>>Hilton

Come on. DHB has shown very little in his 4 year NFL career (but he played in OAK!!!!). In one year Hilton showed us explosiveness that could lead to a very dynamic sophomore season. I'm not writing DHB off by any stretch, but a Donnie Avery type season is a safe guess.

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

DHB has great value in late rounds. However, unlike some, I don't see the addition of DHB hurting Hilton's value.

I think it only "hurts" him insomuch as it relegates him to situational duty for the foreseeable future, again.

TY was already doing about all that could be expected on a per-target basis. He's not making the leap unless he can get starter's touches. And for the time being -- even if it's something as simple as blocking that keeps him under 100 targets -- those targets are looking hard to come by.

Did you see what he did with 90 targets last year? In 15 games, as a rookie.

 

[(HULK)]

Remember when Randy Moss sucked with the Raiders and then found his way to a team with a real QB.

Not saying DHB is Moss, but I am saying I haven't written him off yet.

 

[SteckerMVP]

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

In round 15, that's value. DHB went in the 12th round in my draft last night, and TY went in the 5th. Ahead of Nicks, Decker, Steve Smith, Desean... No way I would reach for TY at that price tag.

He paid a hefty price for Hilton. It's unlikely that will pay off.

 

[Sabertooth]

Remember when Randy Moss sucked with the Raiders and then found his way to a team with a real QB.

Not saying DHB is Moss, but I am saying I haven't written him off yet.

Oof

 

[Sabertooth]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

 

[We Tigers]

DHB is a great value right now in any case. I picked him up in rd 15 in my PPR draft whereas TY went in rd 8.

In round 15, that's value. DHB went in the 12th round in my draft last night, and TY went in the 5th. Ahead of Nicks, Decker, Steve Smith, Desean... No way I would reach for TY at that price tag.

He paid a hefty price for Hilton. It's unlikely that will pay off.

Agreed. That's a little silly. I'm high on the guy and might take him ahead of DeSean, but put him in a tier around WR27-30. At least Decker and Nicks should be taken ahead of him by a full round or two.

 

[Man of Zen]

Remember when Randy Moss sucked with the Raiders and then found his way to a team with a real QB.

Not saying DHB is Moss, but I am saying I haven't written him off yet.

Oof

No sale?

How about the six year career arc of Mr. Sidney Rice?

Clown

Clown

Stud his only full year with Brett Favre

Injured

Clown

Clown

 

[Man of Zen]

Santonio Holmes, for a career arc run in reverse?

 

[(HULK)]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

 

[Sabertooth]

Remember when Randy Moss sucked with the Raiders and then found his way to a team with a real QB.

Not saying DHB is Moss, but I am saying I haven't written him off yet.

Oof

No sale?

How about the six year career arc of Mr. Sidney Rice?

Clown

Clown

Stud his only full year with Brett Favre

Injured

Clown

Clown

Maybe, he's a lot better comparison than Randy Moss.

 

[Sabertooth]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

I agree. I think his ceiling is around 600-700 yards.

 

[cstu]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

It's a huge benefit for him to learn from Wayne and I won't be shocked if DHB is the #1 in Indy when Wayne retires. Joe Horn came out of nowhere to post 94/1340/8 his first year with the Saints at age 28 and he had much less of a track record than DHB (53 catches in 4 years). DHB has the physical skills to develop into that kind of receiver with Luck as his QB.

Like I've said all along, we'll know this year exactly what DHB is. He's certainly better than a 3rd round rookie pick (his going rate) who you would have to wait on for much longer.

 

[drake_ovo]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

It's a huge benefit for him to learn from Wayne and I won't be shocked if DHB is the #1 in Indy when Wayne retires. Joe Horn came out of nowhere to post 94/1340/8 his first year with the Saints at age 28 and he had much less of a track record than DHB (53 catches in 4 years). DHB has the physical skills to develop into that kind of receiver with Luck as his QB.

Like I've said all along, we'll know this year exactly what DHB is. He's certainly better than a 3rd round rookie pick (his going rate) who you would have to wait on for much longer.

i would be shocked if DHB stays past the season. hence, 1 yr contract.

 

[cstu]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

It's a huge benefit for him to learn from Wayne and I won't be shocked if DHB is the #1 in Indy when Wayne retires. Joe Horn came out of nowhere to post 94/1340/8 his first year with the Saints at age 28 and he had much less of a track record than DHB (53 catches in 4 years). DHB has the physical skills to develop into that kind of receiver with Luck as his QB.

Like I've said all along, we'll know this year exactly what DHB is. He's certainly better than a 3rd round rookie pick (his going rate) who you would have to wait on for much longer.

i would be shocked if DHB stays past the season. hence, 1 yr contract.

That's my point - he's either going work out and have a long-term future in Indy or he won't and won't be fantasy-relevant again.

 

[oswizzle]

Contract year... When you play for the Black Hole...your motivation goes with it ... He's out to prove himself this season

 

[Vector]

DHB is going to Light up the Raiders Week 1 ...

Define "light up"...

He's going to share a blunt with his old buddies from the black hole.

 

[jurb26]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

I agree. I think his ceiling is around 600-700 yards.

His ceiling are numbers he's already surpassed in Oak with in 14 games season? Man, the DHB hate is at an all time high for irrational behavior. DHB had 606 yds last season in less than 15 games. He had 975 in 2011 in less than 15 games.

 

[Man of Zen]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

I agree. I think his ceiling is around 600-700 yards.

His ceiling are numbers he's already surpassed in Oak with in 14 games season? Man, the DHB hate is at an all time high for irrational behavior.DHB had 606 yds last season in less than 15 games. He had 975 in 2011 in less than 15 games.

To be fair, DHB was the clear number one in that 2011 OAK passing game.

Even the most optimistic DHB fanatic probably wouldn't argue he's a threat to unseat Wayne as the team's most prolific target. So although it might be a little unfair to call that season his absolute ceiling, I could see a case that it might be a little lower in the current situation.

 

[Alluro]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

I agree. I think his ceiling is around 600-700 yards.

His ceiling are numbers he's already surpassed in Oak with in 14 games season? Man, the DHB hate is at an all time high for irrational behavior.DHB had 606 yds last season in less than 15 games. He had 975 in 2011 in less than 15 games.

To be fair, DHB was the clear number one in that 2011 OAK passing game.Even the most optimistic DHB fanatic probably wouldn't argue he's a threat to unseat Wayne as the team's most prolific target. So although it might be a little unfair to call that season his absolute ceiling, I could see a case that it might be a little lower in the current situation.

Donnie Avery had 124 targets last year.in DHB's best season in Oakland he had 113 targets. I don't think its any stretch at all to project DHB for over 1000 yds. Not to mention, Luck is just a bit better than Campbell.

 

[Man of Zen]

Talent will rise hear. DHB is not all that talented despite when he was picked and how fast he runs. He's journeyman level.

Maybe he just needs to be coached up?You can't learn speed, but you can learn routes, timing, and catching imo.

I'm not expecting much from him, but if he does find a way to be relevant, I won't be shocked.

I agree. I think his ceiling is around 600-700 yards.

His ceiling are numbers he's already surpassed in Oak with in 14 games season? Man, the DHB hate is at an all time high for irrational behavior.DHB had 606 yds last season in less than 15 games. He had 975 in 2011 in less than 15 games.

To be fair, DHB was the clear number one in that 2011 OAK passing game.Even the most optimistic DHB fanatic probably wouldn't argue he's a threat to unseat Wayne as the team's most prolific target. So although it might be a little unfair to call that season his absolute ceiling, I could see a case that it might be a little lower in the current situation.

Donnie Avery had 124 targets last year.in DHB's best season in Oakland he had 113 targets. I don't think its any stretch at all to project DHB for over 1000 yds. Not to mention, Luck is just a bit better than Campbell.

Again, just arguing that I could see the counter argument. I imagine overall targets to WR's are going to come down given the system switch, and although I'm not super gung-ho on Hilton, I do think you'd have to say odds are good his share of the targets will go up at least slightly. I'm not sure where I'd set the over/under for targets to DHB for this year, but I'm betting you'd get pretty good action on both sides if you randomly chose 113.

But I'm pro-DHB in this.

 

[Hoss Style]

I'm pro Hilton, and as a pro Hilton guy I like what Dodds wrote about him today:

He might be WR3 on paper, but I suspect he will challenge for the most receiving yards on the team. Because he is under-sized, he likely won't be on the field during blocking plays. But on obvious passing downs, I look for Luck to target him a lot because of his blazing speed and separation skills.

In my opinion, eventually he stays in on running plays too. I just think the kid's got that potential to make plays and stays on the field full time.

 

[massraider]

DHB played with a QB that put up 360 less passing yards than Luck did last year. He was competing with Streater, Denarius Moore, Brandon Myers for catches. His talent is comparable to Avery.

He is now competing for catches with Wayne, Hilton, Allen, and Fleener, in an offense that, if all goes well, will throw less. 1000 yards?

He could easily have more catches than Hilton. But he won't do anything with them. Hilton will do SO MUCH more with his catches. Hilton has shown more 'special' in half a year than DHB has shown in his career. I like DHB, I actually LOVE him as a person. But he is just a guy. He'll catch a 6 yard slant, and get tackled a yard later. He'll run a hitch, and get tackled immediately. I really laugh at people talking about him opening up the filed with his deep speed. The last time this guy showed speed was at the combine. You want to see a receiver get some deep respect, TY Hilton is the guy you should check out.

In PPR, I think DHB is rosterable. Think you can do much worse as an emergency bye week flex. 5th or 6th WR. However, I think if you are expecting him to keep the Colts from targeting Hilton, or that he can take over as the #1 target when Wayne leaves (ha!), then I think you really expose the fact that you simply have not seen DHB play.

The guy has simply never shown anything beyond the ability to catch a ball (most of the time), and get tackled.

 

[Alluro]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch. I'm not going to close the book on guy who admittedly has had a lot of refinements to make with his game. Like someone mentioned earlier, sometimes it just clicks for a player and a team. Joe Horn was a great example.

 

[massraider]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch..

You're kinda proving my point. His best argument is a 5 game stretch, two seasons ago.

Why didn't he get more of the 4,000 garbage yards the Raiders were handing out last year?

 

[Alluro]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch..

You're kinda proving my point. His best argument is a 5 game stretch, two seasons ago.

Why didn't he get more of the 4,000 garbage yards the Raiders were handing out last year?

He didn't get the same number of targets? For whatever reason, the offense was designed to go to D. Moore. If he gets his target numbers back up, he will be back at those levels.

 

[Hoss Style]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch. I'm not going to close the book on guy who admittedly has had a lot of refinements to make with his game. Like someone mentioned earlier, sometimes it just clicks for a player and a team. Joe Horn was a great example.

I see what you're trying to say, but I think honestly you could look at most WRs that started and find a 5 game stretch where they had a good run. I think Moore had a run last year, with the same QB, for 5 games (weeks 4-8 I think). I had him on my bench then. I don't remember the exact numbers but he had 4 TDs in 5 games and was probably around the 90 yard mark per game (I know he had a 100+ yard game in there).

I'm just not sure why we should use 2011 as a predictor for DHB. On the flip side, DHB didn't do bad in 2012, either. He had stats just below Moore (in one less game). I'm just not sure that's a good sign, though. We'll see.

 

[massraider]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch..

You're kinda proving my point. His best argument is a 5 game stretch, two seasons ago.

Why didn't he get more of the 4,000 garbage yards the Raiders were handing out last year?

He didn't get the same number of targets? For whatever reason, the offense was designed to go to D. Moore. If he gets his target numbers back up, he will be back at those levels.

Right, and he got passed by UDFA like Streater, as well.

"For whatever" reason the offense was designed to go through Moore? First, I am not sure that is true. You certainly won't find any coaches saying that.

Second, if it was true, the reason is that Moore has been better than DHB since the first day he arrived in Oakland.

 

[LittlePhatty]

DHB...
The last time this guy showed speed was at the combine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU8TeIxafXM

 

[massraider]

DHB...
The last time this guy showed speed was at the combine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU8TeIxafXM

 

[cstu]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch..

You're kinda proving my point. His best argument is a 5 game stretch, two seasons ago.

Why didn't he get more of the 4,000 garbage yards the Raiders were handing out last year?

He didn't get the same number of targets? For whatever reason, the offense was designed to go to D. Moore. If he gets his target numbers back up, he will be back at those levels.

Right, and he got passed by UDFA like Streater, as well.

"For whatever" reason the offense was designed to go through Moore? First, I am not sure that is true. You certainly won't find any coaches saying that.

Second, if it was true, the reason is that Moore has been better than DHB since the first day he arrived in Oakland.

And Randy Moss got passed by Ronald Curry.

 

[massraider]

And Randy Moss got passed by Ronald Curry.

I won't even bother explaining why that comparison doesn't work, because you already know why.

 

[cstu]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch. I'm not going to close the book on guy who admittedly has had a lot of refinements to make with his game. Like someone mentioned earlier, sometimes it just clicks for a player and a team. Joe Horn was a great example.

I see what you're trying to say, but I think honestly you could look at most WRs that started and find a 5 game stretch where they had a good run. I think Moore had a run last year, with the same QB, for 5 games (weeks 4-8 I think). I had him on my bench then. I don't remember the exact numbers but he had 4 TDs in 5 games and was probably around the 90 yard mark per game (I know he had a 100+ yard game in there).

I'm just not sure why we should use 2011 as a predictor for DHB. On the flip side, DHB didn't do bad in 2012, either. He had stats just below Moore (in one less game). I'm just not sure that's a good sign, though. We'll see.

Perhaps because he has performed at a high level before and with a lesser QB. He had a forgettable year last year but that was a highly dysfunctional team who had a TE and 2 RB's as three of their four top receivers.

 

[massraider]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch. I'm not going to close the book on guy who admittedly has had a lot of refinements to make with his game. Like someone mentioned earlier, sometimes it just clicks for a player and a team. Joe Horn was a great example.

I see what you're trying to say, but I think honestly you could look at most WRs that started and find a 5 game stretch where they had a good run. I think Moore had a run last year, with the same QB, for 5 games (weeks 4-8 I think). I had him on my bench then. I don't remember the exact numbers but he had 4 TDs in 5 games and was probably around the 90 yard mark per game (I know he had a 100+ yard game in there).

I'm just not sure why we should use 2011 as a predictor for DHB. On the flip side, DHB didn't do bad in 2012, either. He had stats just below Moore (in one less game). I'm just not sure that's a good sign, though. We'll see.

Perhaps because he has performed at a high level before and with a lesser QB. He had a forgettable year last year but that was a highly dysfunctional team who had a TE and 2 RB's as three of their four top receivers.

4,000 plus yards passing. They actually weren't dysfunctional, they were just bad. In what way were they dysfunctional?

He should have been a compiler last year, taking advantage of Moore's inconsistency, an un-special TE, Jacoby Ford' injuries, etc. Why didn't he?

And why is he going to put up more numbers with much, much better competition for targets? (I'll keep asking this question until someone takes a hack at it.)

 

[jurb26]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch. I'm not going to close the book on guy who admittedly has had a lot of refinements to make with his game. Like someone mentioned earlier, sometimes it just clicks for a player and a team. Joe Horn was a great example.

I see what you're trying to say, but I think honestly you could look at most WRs that started and find a 5 game stretch where they had a good run. I think Moore had a run last year, with the same QB, for 5 games (weeks 4-8 I think). I had him on my bench then. I don't remember the exact numbers but he had 4 TDs in 5 games and was probably around the 90 yard mark per game (I know he had a 100+ yard game in there).

I'm just not sure why we should use 2011 as a predictor for DHB. On the flip side, DHB didn't do bad in 2012, either. He had stats just below Moore (in one less game). I'm just not sure that's a good sign, though. We'll see.

Perhaps because he has performed at a high level before and with a lesser QB. He had a forgettable year last year but that was a highly dysfunctional team who had a TE and 2 RB's as three of their four top receivers.

4,000 plus yards passing. They actually weren't dysfunctional, they were just bad. In what way were they dysfunctional?He should have been a compiler last year, taking advantage of Moore's inconsistency, an un-special TE, Jacoby Ford' injuries, etc. Why didn't he?

And why is he going to put up more numbers with much, much better competition for targets? (I'll keep asking this question until someone takes a hack at it.)

it's been answered several times in this thread already. Because many feel he will replace Avery in the Indy offense and that role projects to give him a career high in targets, not too mention passes from a far better QB than he's ever played with. DHB is a better WR than Avery, so why would the targets for that role decrease? The same competition that got a lesser WR 120 targets last year is there now.

 

[jonboltz]

And why is he going to put up more numbers with much, much better competition for targets? (I'll keep asking this question until someone takes a hack at it.)

One possible answer would be that he will be getting much, much easier coverage assignments from the opposition.

 

[massraider]

Over the final 5 games of the 2011 Season, DHB averaged 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards per game. He was a top 10 fantasy WR for that stretch. I'm not going to close the book on guy who admittedly has had a lot of refinements to make with his game. Like someone mentioned earlier, sometimes it just clicks for a player and a team. Joe Horn was a great example.

I see what you're trying to say, but I think honestly you could look at most WRs that started and find a 5 game stretch where they had a good run. I think Moore had a run last year, with the same QB, for 5 games (weeks 4-8 I think). I had him on my bench then. I don't remember the exact numbers but he had 4 TDs in 5 games and was probably around the 90 yard mark per game (I know he had a 100+ yard game in there).

I'm just not sure why we should use 2011 as a predictor for DHB. On the flip side, DHB didn't do bad in 2012, either. He had stats just below Moore (in one less game). I'm just not sure that's a good sign, though. We'll see.

Perhaps because he has performed at a high level before and with a lesser QB. He had a forgettable year last year but that was a highly dysfunctional team who had a TE and 2 RB's as three of their four top receivers.

4,000 plus yards passing. They actually weren't dysfunctional, they were just bad. In what way were they dysfunctional?He should have been a compiler last year, taking advantage of Moore's inconsistency, an un-special TE, Jacoby Ford' injuries, etc. Why didn't he?

And why is he going to put up more numbers with much, much better competition for targets? (I'll keep asking this question until someone takes a hack at it.)

it's been answered several times in this thread already. Because many feel he will replace Avery in the Indy offense and that role projects to give him a career high in targets, not too mention passes from a far better QB than he's ever played with. DHB is a better WR than Avery, so why would the targets for that role decrease? The same competition that got a lesser WR 120 targets last year is there now.

1st, 'DHB is better than Avery' is tremendously arguable.

2nd, this is a different offense than Avery played in last year, just plugging in those targets to DHB seems a little simplistic to me.

3rd, I can see all kinds of reasons why DHB won't get Avery's targets. The arrow is pointing up on three other receivers there, Hilton, Allen, and Fleener. I think you can guarantee more targets for Fleener and Hilton.

4th, and I am just throwing this out there: When indy coaches talk about DHB, as one of Luck's starting recivers, and the word 'blocking' is used in the first breath.......well, ya know.........

 

[pizzatyme]

And why is he going to put up more numbers with much, much better competition for targets?

(I'll keep asking this question until someone takes a hack at it.)

One possible answer would be that he will be

getting much, much easier coverage assignments from the opposition.

Thanks. I answered this several pages back. But what do I know, I only watched them first hand throughout training camp.

But maybe some talking head out there knows better?!

 

[pizzatyme]

Hines Ward was a good blocker. It didn't seem to hurt his receiving numbers.

 

[massraider]

But what do I know, I only watched them first hand throughout training camp.

Gosh, you have? Have you mentioned this before, by any chance?

 

[cstu]

4th, and I am just throwing this out there: When indy coaches talk about DHB, as one of Luck's starting recivers, and the word 'blocking' is used in the first breath.......well, ya know.........

Steelers coaches used to talk a lot about Hines Ward's blocking.

 

[pizzatyme]

But what do I know, I only watched them first hand throughout training camp.

Gosh, you have? Have you mentioned this before, by any chance?

Yes, funny guy. But you go on with your expert 2nd hand analysis.

 

[jurb26]

But what do I know, I only watched them first hand throughout training camp.

Gosh, you have? Have you mentioned this before, by any chance?

Yes, funny guy. But you go on with your expert 2nd hand analysis.

Thanks, some of us do appreciate you sharing eye witness info. Others just seem to be looking for justification of their preconceived notions.

 

[massraider]

But what do I know, I only watched them first hand throughout training camp.

Gosh, you have? Have you mentioned this before, by any chance?

Yes, funny guy. But you go on with your expert 2nd hand analysis.

Thanks, some of us do appreciate you sharing eye witness infthers just seem to be looking for justification of their preconceived notions.

Preconceived notion? No, a preconceived notion would be saying DHB sucks after he gets drafted.

I guess I have a conceived notion, because I have seen every catch and drop of his career.

 

[jurb26]

But what do I know, I only watched them first hand throughout training camp.

Gosh, you have? Have you mentioned this before, by any chance?

Yes, funny guy. But you go on with your expert 2nd hand analysis.

Thanks, some of us do appreciate you sharing eye witness infthers just seem to be looking for justification of their preconceived notions.

Preconceived notion? No, a preconceived notion would be saying DHB sucks after he gets drafted. I guess I have a conceived notion, because I have seen every catch and drop of his career.

LOL.

 

[massraider]

By the way, I appreciate pizzatyme's camp stuff as well, the tight end stuff was particularly interesting.

But training camp reports are not infallible, and while pizzatyme may trust his camp eyeball accounts, I trust what I saw for the last 4 years. By the way, the two opinions aren't mutually exclusive. The Colts can try and get DHB the ball, they can start him, and he can get a career amount of targets. And he still may be a below average receiver, who isn't fantasy relevant, and does much less with his targets than Hilton.