How do you stop Julio, AJB and that freight train named Henry? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

This offense should be explosive, should it not? How bad is the Offensive Line and is the Secondary still a mystery? Will they be playing from behind? You still have to run the ball close to the end zone so Henry should be good for 15-20 TDs at least, right? Could he shoot up into the mid-20s? Hype more than bite probably. 

Tannehill is a Top-12 guy at this point, right? I never trust him but he has gotten the Titans to an AFCC and no one thought he could ever do that so while I still never see him truly propel this team, he does seem to do well as most decent QBs do at utilizing his weapons.  He's the same as many, give him time and surround him with weapons and he can have success. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I posted in other threads that the offense won’t be any better having lost Davis and Smith. Jones numbers should be lower going to a team that runs way more than the Falcons. Other opinions will vary. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Last season the Titans scored the 4th most points. They had the 3rd most yards and 3rd in yards per play.

That is a pretty potent offense. Julio is likely an upgrade from Corey Davis so there could be some improvement in the form of their passing game

Tannehill was QB 8 last season in fantasy so him finishing in the top 12 wouldn't be too surprising I guess. 

@Bri could you tell us your view on how good the Titans offensive line will be compared to last year?

 

[Bri]

Last season the Titans scored the 4th most points. They had the 3rd most yards and 3rd in yards per play.

That is a pretty potent offense. Julio is likely an upgrade from Corey Davis so there could be some improvement in the form of their passing game

Tannehill was QB 8 last season in fantasy so him finishing in the top 12 wouldn't be too surprising I guess. 

@Bri could you tell us your view on how good the Titans offensive line will be compared to last year?

They're excellent. Davis got an all pro vote last year and has developed nicely. They've got three top level in Lewan, Saffold, and Davis. Jones is a good center. They have four Ts competing for the RT spot that all started and the rookie Radunz who many felt was a real solid draft pick. 

They found two udfa Cs last year they loved. Brewer switched to backing up G and even T and then even got a few starts in where he was solid. He's a real good backup that probably replaces Saffold next year. (Both guards free agents)

This great line has been aided by two very good blocking tight ends for about a decade, so before they got there. 

The only question is if Downing changes to 3 WR set, how will they do without the TE help. They're not being forthcoming about the switch or not and will say how it's still Arthur's offense but three wide...then it's not. 

Lewan is an athlete that plays T and a future HOFer. The Titans have averaged 8 ypc behind him since he came into that spot and his sack numbers are very good. I don't see it debatable that he's a HOFer.  Anyways he'll be fine. What happens on the right side? 

Firkser has never been good as inline blocker but they've been training n training him. Do we have to see him fail? Because that's a problem. Swaim is fine everyone knows him. The UDFA TEs are all well known blockers- even their FB udfa played TE last year. 

A leak was an extra lineman practicing as TE so that might develop.

There may be some hiccups as guys get their feet wet in the NFL but they should be a top unit again.

 

[Bri]

This offense should be explosive, should it not? How bad is the Offensive Line and is the Secondary still a mystery? Will they be playing from behind? You still have to run the ball close to the end zone so Henry should be good for 15-20 TDs at least, right? Could he shoot up into the mid-20s? Hype more than bite probably. 

Tannehill is a Top-12 guy at this point, right? I never trust him but he has gotten the Titans to an AFCC and no one thought he could ever do that so while I still never see him truly propel this team, he does seem to do well as most decent QBs do at utilizing his weapons.  He's the same as many, give him time and surround him with weapons and he can have success. 

Henry can't continue his pace. 1500 or 1600 or somesuch is more likely. We can't pretend it's normal to repeat 2k. 

Arthur Smith was a genius at creating matchup probs- a sort of new version of Heimerdinger or Belichick. The best minds would make comments like his offense isn't that creative or unusual (it's Gibbs nuanced) you know where everyone is going, but the D can't matchup to it.

Smith could put a RB in the slot or wide. TE anywhere including the backfield. There's always a presnap motion to see what the D does etc.

Asking Downing to do the same is a big ask. 

You're not stopping them but slowing them down. Their CBs have major issues and Vrabel's zone D is questionable at times. I think they're definitely a team ya gotta beat in a shootout.

If Reynolds and Dez are capable backups, defenses will have trouble staying fresh as we all know it's hard to field CBs as injuries start piling up. The Titans prob will be keeping Julio healthy for the playoffs

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I posted in other threads that the offense won’t be any better having lost Davis and Smith. Jones numbers should be lower going to a team that runs way more than the Falcons. Other opinions will vary. 

Jones + Firsker > Davis + Smith 

but I do agree that adding Jones doesn’t necessarily upgrade the offense all that much.

 

[menobrown]

So we know the offense is loaded so it boils down to asking what could go wrong other then generic health that applies to almost every team?

Change from Arthur Smith to Downing should not be glossed over. Smith seems extremely sharp. Downing was a one and down OC who saw Raiders offensive collapse under his watch. Carr regressed, scoring went from 7th to 23rd and pace went from 8th in total offensive plays to 30th.

The second is everything still revolves around Henry. That's not a concern in itself and I absolutely think he's a different breed of player otherwise I'd be more worried about him but a few notes on him. I think, not 100% sure on this, you got to go back to Ricky Williams to find a RB who had this many carries in a two year span. He had 379 last year and in last 10 seasons only two RB's even went over 350. Murray in 2014 who then went to Philly and flopped and Foster who got hurt the next season but of course no one is confusing Foster's durability with Henry's.  Again Henry's a different kind of breed but if we are just talking about the last 10 years we are in unchartered kind of usage for a RB.

Those to me are the two primary concerns.

 

[Anarchy99]

Jones + Firsker > Davis + Smith 

but I do agree that adding Jones doesn’t necessarily upgrade the offense all that much.

In his two years as a starter in TEN, Tannehill has averaged 27.9 passing attempts. In the past two years in ATL, Ryan averaged 40.1 passing attempts. That's more than 30% fewer attempts. Maybe they will pass more this season with Jones. Last year Davis and Smith combined for 100 receiving yards per game . . . which is why I think Jones' impact will be minimal.

Based on point differential, the Titans expected record should have been 9-7. IMO, they were both a bit lucky and a bit overrated. In another thread I guessed they would go 10-7 this season.

I also mentioned in some other threads that I think many offenses did better last season with the impact of COVID and limited preparation and practice time. I happen to think scoring and offensive production will go down some this year. The Titans scored almost 90 more points last season than in 2019 . . . and they allowed almost 110 more points. We'll have to see if they can keep winning at the same rate when last year they took on more water than they were able to bail out.

 

[Teezee]

As much as I have advocated for Tanny the last couple seasons, I feel he has maxed out. I think this is his ceiling. I think if you put any more on his shoulders that you will start to see a loss in efficiency. But I do think you'll see them pass a little more this year, not by choice though. At its core, I think the Tennessee philosophy has always been the power run game with the option to pass.

 

[Tau837]

In his two years as a starter in TEN, Tannehill has averaged 27.9 passing attempts. In the past two years in ATL, Ryan averaged 40.1 passing attempts. That's more than 30% fewer attempts. Maybe they will pass more this season with Jones. Last year Davis and Smith combined for 100 receiving yards per game . . . which is why I think Jones' impact will be minimal.

Do you think at their current ages Julio > Davis? I do.

Last year, Davis had 65/984/5 on 92 targets. Assuming he is healthy enough to play 15+ games, do you think Julio gets more targets or fewer targets than Davis got? I'll take the over.

If Julio gets 92 targets, do you think he performs better (i.e., more receptions, more receiving yards, and/or more TDs) or worse. I think better.

 

[JetMaxx]

The recipe to stop a talented offense in today’s NFL is always the same. Strong front 4 play. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Given Julio's chronic hamstring & lower body injuries the last few seasons, that part of the equation should work itself out.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The recipe to stop a talented offense in today’s NFL is always the same. Strong front 4 play. 

Hard to throw bombs from your back while looking out your earhole, I agree. It's a recipe that dates as far back as the vertical passing game. 

ETA: I wish I had film of the very first time a team came out throwing the ball deep & everyone on the opposing team just standing there gawking like, "uh, guys? wtf is even happening here?"  

 

[Tau837]

Given Julio's chronic hamstring & lower body injuries the last few seasons, that part of the equation should work itself out.  

How chronic is it really? He missed 7 games last season, but only missed 4 games in the previous 6 seasons combined.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How chronic is it really? He missed 7 games last season, but only missed 4 games in the previous 6 seasons combined.

Having been a Julio owner, I know how misleading that bolded statement is.

He was also deployed as a decoy, hobbling around for most of a game, sometimes taking several plays off at a time.

He would also try to play through various lower body injuries & be less than effective. 

I don’t know how many times that all happened but it was waaaaay more than the 4 games he missed in 6 prior seasons. 

 

[Wise Old Owl]

How chronic is it really? He missed 7 games last season, but only missed 4 games in the previous 6 seasons combined.

Tell me how you don't roster Julio without telling me you don't roster Julio. He is always playing through something. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Do you think at their current ages Julio > Davis? I do.

Last year, Davis had 65/984/5 on 92 targets. Assuming he is healthy enough to play 15+ games, do you think Julio gets more targets or fewer targets than Davis got? I'll take the over.

If Julio gets 92 targets, do you think he performs better (i.e., more receptions, more receiving yards, and/or more TDs) or worse. I think better.

We are discussing different things. Based on his per game performance, Davis was on track for 1200/6 across a 17 game season. With another year in the system, I don't think it would be crazy for Davis to have improved a little on those numbers had he been there in 2021.

Davis averaged 6.6 targets per game. Jones averaged 7.5 on a team that passed substantially more. Maybe Jones will see more targets a game than Davis did, but I don't necessarily think that Jones at 32 years old will produce light years better than Davis would at 26. At this stage is Jones still better than Davis? Probably. Is he so much better than Davis that Jones will transform the passing offense to a whole other level? IMO, probably not.

At the time Jones got shut down last season, Jones ranked 15th in PPG in PPR leagues. At that same point, Davis ranked 18th in PPG. Davis and several others had some COVID issues last year, so who knows what impact that had on his production.

We don't know what impact Jones will have playing for someone not named Matt Ryan, playing in a different system, playing home games outdoors on grass instead of in a dome on turf, playing 14 games outside instead of 11 games inside, etc. Maybe he will be healthier than last year . . . or maybe he's started to lose a step. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say those things probably won't effect him . . . but they could.

I would guess if mostly healthy Jones would finish the year around WR20 plus or minus a few spots either way. That's pretty similar to the pace he was on in ATL last year. Had Davis still been in TEN, I would have projected him pretty close to that . . . likely in the WR20-25 range. That's why I suggested Jones probably won't have as big as an impact as some people are potentially suggesting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Tell me how you don't roster Julio without telling me you don't roster Julio. He is always playing through something. 

Exactly. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

likely in the WR20-25 range. That's why I suggested Jones probably won't have as big as an impact as some people are potentially suggesting.

I agree, with your caveat of "'if healthy" for sure. Which makes him a fairly affordable WR2, if that's your need when drafting that round. There are players I like more (or rather trust more to stay on the field) in that range of picks, but things change & if he slips a little I might pick him. 

IMO, Julio helps Henry & AJB more as he'll draw coverage & prevent box stacking. 

 

[wlwiles]

Tell me how you don't roster Julio without telling me you don't roster Julio. He is always playing through something. 

Guy gets the red Q tag in Week 2, and keeps it 6 days a week until the season is over.  He'll almost always suit up and you gotta start him, but I swear more often that not you're kicking yourself halfway through is game when he's got 2 targets and 1 catch

 

[-OZ-]

.

I would guess if mostly healthy Jones would finish the year around WR20 plus or minus a few spots either way. That's pretty similar to the pace he was on in ATL last year. Had Davis still been in TEN, I would have projected him pretty close to that . . . likely in the WR20-25 range. That's why I suggested Jones probably won't have as big as an impact as some people are potentially suggesting.

Stats, sure. 

If anyone thinks they traded for Julio just for stats, they're overlooking his biggest impact.  So far the Titans clubhouse has been solid. Julio makes it even stronger. 

 

[Tau837]

We are discussing different things. Based on his per game performance, Davis was on track for 1200/6 across a 17 game season. With another year in the system, I don't think it would be crazy for Davis to have improved a little on those numbers had he been there in 2021.

Davis averaged 6.6 targets per game. Jones averaged 7.5 on a team that passed substantially more. Maybe Jones will see more targets a game than Davis did, but I don't necessarily think that Jones at 32 years old will produce light years better than Davis would at 26. At this stage is Jones still better than Davis? Probably. Is he so much better than Davis that Jones will transform the passing offense to a whole other level? IMO, probably not.

At the time Jones got shut down last season, Jones ranked 15th in PPG in PPR leagues. At that same point, Davis ranked 18th in PPG. Davis and several others had some COVID issues last year, so who knows what impact that had on his production.

We don't know what impact Jones will have playing for someone not named Matt Ryan, playing in a different system, playing home games outdoors on grass instead of in a dome on turf, playing 14 games outside instead of 11 games inside, etc. Maybe he will be healthier than last year . . . or maybe he's started to lose a step. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say those things probably won't effect him . . . but they could.

I would guess if mostly healthy Jones would finish the year around WR20 plus or minus a few spots either way. That's pretty similar to the pace he was on in ATL last year. Had Davis still been in TEN, I would have projected him pretty close to that . . . likely in the WR20-25 range. That's why I suggested Jones probably won't have as big as an impact as some people are potentially suggesting.

You chose not to answer any of my questions directly.

Do you think Jones gets more targets per game in 2021 than Davis did in 2020 if Jones remains healthy?

Do you think Jones will produce more per target in 2021 than Davis did in 2020?

Dont write a page long response. Just answer the questions. 
 

ETA: I don’t see this discussion as being about fantasy performance. The OP seemed to be about IRL. That is how I was thinking about the discussion. 

 

[Tau837]

Stats, sure. 

If anyone thinks they traded for Julio just for stats, they're overlooking his biggest impact.  So far the Titans clubhouse has been solid. Julio makes it even stronger. 

IMO comparing Julio’s expected numbers in TEN to his numbers in ATL and concluding they will be lower completely misses the point. The point is, Julio is better than Davis, and will impact the defense differently, which should benefit the Titans offense more positively. 

 

[rzrback77]

You chose not to answer any of my questions directly.

Do you think Jones gets more targets per game in 2021 than Davis did in 2020 if Jones remains healthy?

Do you think Jones will produce more per target in 2021 than Davis did in 2020?

Dont write a page long response. Just answer the questions. 

I know that you were asking someone else, but if healthy, I believe that Julio Jones gets more targets than Davis did last year and I think he will be more productive on a per target basis.

 

[Anarchy99]

You chose not to answer any of my questions directly.

Do you think Jones gets more targets per game in 2021 than Davis did in 2020 if Jones remains healthy?

Do you think Jones will produce more per target in 2021 than Davis did in 2020?

Dont write a page long response. Just answer the questions. 
 

ETA: I don’t see this discussion as being about fantasy performance. The OP seemed to be about IRL. That is how I was thinking about the discussion. 

QUESTION 1: Yes.
QUESTION 2: No.

If you care at all about anything beyond that, Jones has averaged close to 10 targets a game over his career in an offense that had 30% more passing attempts. I see Jones getting closer to 8 targets compared to 6.5 or so that Davis got.

As for Q2, Davis averaged 10.7 yards per target last year. Jones has averaged 9.8 yards per target over his career. Jones did have career bests in yards per target and catch percentage last year, but both of those were much higher than in recent years.

I also compared how Davis would have done in 2021 in TEN to how Jones will do in 2021 in TEN. I don’t think those numbers would have been dramatically different (of course there is no way of knowing).

I have heard some talking heads suggest adding Jones takes the Titans offense to a Chiefs level and puts them in a 13-14 win category. IMO, I don’t think he will move the needle much in terms of wins. I already predicted they will go 10-7. Other perspectives and viewpoints may differ.

 

[FairWarning]

Julio seems to get a lot of nagging injuries also.  He can win you a game, but he can have a no-show just as easily.  

 

[JetMaxx]

Hard to throw bombs from your back while looking out your earhole, I agree. It's a recipe that dates as far back as the vertical passing game. 

ETA: I wish I had film of the very first time a team came out throwing the ball deep & everyone on the opposing team just standing there gawking like, "uh, guys? wtf is even happening here?"  

The only place a defense stands a chance in today’s NFL is with the front 4 consistently beating the OL. Coverage rules place the defense at a tremendous disadvantage which is compounded if having to blitz at an abnormally high rate due to front 4 deficiency. The recipe for success isn’t complicated if you have that level of front 4 production. With all of the skill position talent, the Titans OL and their season long health will be the deal maker/breaker

 

[Bri]

2TE offense inside the ten, usually a blocking TE left, Henry behind. 

It's too short a field for safeties to cheat successfully and double a WR. Sometimes they try the left which is AJBs side.

Julio should be the third option and be more than capable one on one versus a CB. This could be when he finally gets the TD numbers everyone has always expected.

My prediction is he doesn't get as much first n second down work to keep him healthy. There are many expected Henry run plays and they simply don't need Julio to block. Reynolds not only is a good blocker but he bulked up this off-season for Davis' role which we all thought he had before the Julio trade. Why risk the old but dynamic Julio getting banged up on a run play? 

No doubt 8 in the box with no help for whoever is on Julio or AJB is a great time to change up and pass. The Titans can't be predictable and put Julio in just for that, a defense would adjust presnap. He'll play some first and second downs, I just don't think it's as many as in the past 

I have no other suggestion as to how to get Julio to week 14 or so healthy. If you've got one let me hear it.

 

[King of the Jungle]

With the players in place it is up to coaching to continue to be creative. If that happens this team has a chance to go deep in the playoffs. How much will Arthur Smith be missed if any is the question IMO.

 

[Biabreakable]

I also mentioned in some other threads that I think many offenses did better last season with the impact of COVID and limited preparation and practice time. I happen to think scoring and offensive production will go down some thing year. The Titans scored almost 90 more points last season than in 2019 . . . and they allowed almost 110 more points. We'll have to see if they can keep winning at the same rate when last year they took on more water than they were able to bail out.

I totally agree with this as the NFL set records in terms of points scored and yards gained by the offense in 2020.

The main difference being something like 18 fewer offensive penalties on average per team compared to previous years where penalties have been remarkably consistent from year to year. The fewer penalties led to more offensive 1st downs and thus yards and points scored.

I haven't quite figured out what to do with that yet. Perhaps its something you need consider for each team as you point out for the Titans, but I definitely agree that offensive production is going to go down in 2021.

 

[Ghost Rider]

IMO comparing Julio’s expected numbers in TEN to his numbers in ATL and concluding they will be lower completely misses the point. The point is, Julio is better than Davis, and will impact the defense differently, which should benefit the Titans offense more positively. 

Agreed.  Tennessee didn't trade for a future HoFer who is still in his prime (when healthy) to make him the 3rd wheel on offense.  He will get fed a lot. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No doubt 8 in the box with no help for whoever is on Julio or AJB is a great time to change up and pass.

color me skeptical that this happens often, if at all this year. That went out the window before the ink was dry on Julio’s paperwork.

I can’t imagine any defense stacking the box so long as JJ & AJB are healthy. 

Which really gives Henry a chance at a ridiculous season. Add in a few more cheapies inside the 1 from DPI in the end zone & Henry gonna be an absolute monster if he stays healthy. 

 

[Bri]

color me skeptical that this happens often, if at all this year. That went out the window before the ink was dry on Julio’s paperwork.

I can’t imagine any defense stacking the box so long as JJ & AJB are healthy. 

Which really gives Henry a chance at a ridiculous season. Add in a few more cheapies inside the 1 from DPI in the end zone & Henry gonna be an absolute monster if he stays healthy. 

They will. I hear ya but they will, the two TE invites it. 

At some point, you can't figure a D will lay down. The Titans are blessed now, no doubt, with a special offense. If we were talking Chiefs or Pack or Bucs etc it ends the same- the D's are gonna do something.

I always go back to the old Bulls. If you can (dream of) stop Jordan you may win. Kukoc and Pippen may wreck ya, but at least you've got a chance.

In this pick your poison way, I think Henry is the MJ. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One of the key ingredients is who we are not talking about much and that is Tannehill and his ability to call audibles at the line when he has a hat on a hat and Henry is going to be one on one trying to break a tackle to get loose in the 2nd level. Or when the defense has 7 or even 8 in the box and Tannehill can see Julio or AJB with one on one coverage, that should be an easy 8-10 yds and a first down.  His ability to move the chains and keep their offense on the field, defense minimal exposure and if they can stop the other team every other drive, Tennessee should score over 20-30 every week unless they can't block along the line. 

This will be the most talent Tannehill has been surrounded with to date, he's been in the NFL for about a decade now, he's about as good as he is ever going to get. 

 

[Ilov80s]

With the players in place it is up to coaching to continue to be creative. If that happens this team has a chance to go deep in the playoffs. How much will Arthur Smith be missed if any is the question IMO.

I don't even think it takes much creativity to make an offense of Julio, AB and Henry work. These 3 guys are so just physically dominant that it seems pretty simple. Hand the ball to Henry a lot. Hit AB on a lot of slants. Have Julio run every deep route in the playbook. It should all work itself out. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Having been a Julio owner, I know how misleading that bolded statement is.

He was also deployed as a decoy, hobbling around for most of a game, sometimes taking several plays off at a time.

He would also try to play through various lower body injuries & be less than effective. 

I don’t know how many times that all happened but it was waaaaay more than the 4 games he missed in 6 prior seasons. 

Is it really that bad? Seems like more panic about practice participation than anything. I would say in PPR that 11 points in a week is about the line for starting caliber performance at WR. That is usually around where WR32-40 weekly. The last 3 years, Julio has played in a game and fell under 11 PPR points just 5 times.

2020- 3 times

2019- 1 time (10.9)

2018- 1 time 

Julio may be injured, he may miss practices, he may come in and out games but if he is on the field, he is almost always delivering a playable PPR performance. Going forward, it's a little tougher to say for sure what happened in 2020. Was that just a particularly bad injury that limited him or is it a sign of things to come as his body suffers from age,wear and tear?

 

[FairWarning]

I posted in other threads that the offense won’t be any better having lost Davis and Smith. Jones numbers should be lower going to a team that runs way more than the Falcons. Other opinions will vary. 

Agree.  Jones nagging injuries will stop him as much as anything.  

 

[FairWarning]

Is it really that bad? Seems like more panic about practice participation than anything. I would say in PPR that 11 points in a week is about the line for starting caliber performance at WR. That is usually around where WR32-40 weekly. The last 3 years, Julio has played in a game and fell under 11 PPR points just 5 times.

2020- 3 times

2019- 1 time (10.9)

2018- 1 time 

Julio may be injured, he may miss practices, he may come in and out games but if he is on the field, he is almost always delivering a playable PPR performance. Going forward, it's a little tougher to say for sure what happened in 2020. Was that just a particularly bad injury that limited him or is it a sign of things to come as his body suffers from age,wear and tear?

The latter.  I think for his ADP, he's a disappointment though.  

 

[Ilov80s]

The latter.  I think for his ADP, he's a disappointment though.  

I expect him to be pretty volatile in where he goes in drafts. I can see a lot of casuals who will be attracted by the big name and "the value" since this is the latest he's gone in years. There will be others who have the many anti Julio narratives that have built up (doesn't score TDs, always banged up, too old,Titans don't throw) and won't want anything to do with him. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Is it really that bad? Seems like more panic about practice participation than anything. I would say in PPR that 11 points in a week is about the line for starting caliber performance at WR. That is usually around where WR32-40 weekly. The last 3 years, Julio has played in a game and fell under 11 PPR points just 5 times.

2020- 3 times

2019- 1 time (10.9)

2018- 1 time 

Julio may be injured, he may miss practices, he may come in and out games but if he is on the field, he is almost always delivering a playable PPR performance. Going forward, it's a little tougher to say for sure what happened in 2020. Was that just a particularly bad injury that limited him or is it a sign of things to come as his body suffers from age,wear and tear?

11 is a low bar.

Average WR3 (25-36 on a weekly basis) and WR4 (37-48) the last 3 years:

2020

WR3 13.16

WR4 11.22

2019

WR3 12.22

WR4 10.73

2018

WR3 11.51

WR4 10.45

Julio consistency by year:

2018

Led the league in Elite games (>=21.58) with 9 (56.25%), was 2nd to Adams with 11G (68.75%) WR1 (>=15.53), was at least WR2 (>=13.81) 12 times (75.00%, 6th), WR3 or better 13 G (81.25%, 8th), WR4 or better 15 G (93.75%, 3rd), 1 subpar game. Overall WR Consistency Ranking 4th (Adams-Hopkins-Brown)

2019

Elite (>=19.58)  5G (33.33%, 4th), WR1(>=15.53)  6G (40.00%, 22nd),  WR2 (>=14.14) 10G (66.67%, 2nd), WR3 10G (66.67%, 6th), WR4 13G (86.67%, 2nd), 2 subpar game. Overall WR Consistency Ranking 4th (Thomas-Godwin-Adams)

2020

Elite (>=21.93)  2G (22.22%, 12th), WR1 (>=16.59)  4G (44.44%, 12th),  WR2 (>=14.51) 6G (66.67%, 5th), WR3 6G (66.67%, 10th), WR4 6G (66.67%, 17th), 3 subpar game. Overall WR Consistency Ranking 12th (Adams-Hill-Diggs-Ridley-Fuller-Hopkins-AJ Brown-Metcalf-Allen-Godwin-Jefferson)

Consistency Calculator

 

[King of the Jungle]

I don't even think it takes much creativity to make an offense of Julio, AB and Henry work. These 3 guys are so just physically dominant that it seems pretty simple. Hand the ball to Henry a lot. Hit AB on a lot of slants. Have Julio run every deep route in the playbook. It should all work itself out. 

The way Arthur Smith put AJ in position to make huge plays the last couple of years deserves credit. I do wonder how much Julio has left which will be a factor as well.

 

[Ilov80s]

11 is a low bar.

Average WR3 (25-36 on a weekly basis) and WR4 (37-48) the last 3 years:

2020

WR3 13.16

WR4 11.22

2019

WR3 12.22

WR4 10.73

2018

WR3 11.51

WR4 10.45

Julio consistency by year:

2018

Led the league in Elite games (>=21.58) with 9 (56.25%), was 2nd to Adams with 11G (68.75%) WR1 (>=15.53), was at least WR2 (>=13.81) 12 times (75.00%, 6th), WR3 or better 13 G (81.25%, 8th), WR4 or better 15 G (93.75%, 3rd), 1 subpar game. Overall WR Consistency Ranking 4th (Adams-Hopkins-Brown)

2019

Elite (>=19.58)  5G (33.33%, 4th), WR1(>=15.53)  6G (40.00%, 22nd),  WR2 (>=14.14) 10G (66.67%, 2nd), WR3 10G (66.67%, 6th), WR4 13G (86.67%, 2nd), 2 subpar game. Overall WR Consistency Ranking 4th (Thomas-Godwin-Adams)

2020

Elite (>=21.93)  2G (22.22%, 12th), WR1 (>=16.59)  4G (44.44%, 12th),  WR2 (>=14.51) 6G (66.67%, 5th), WR3 6G (66.67%, 10th), WR4 6G (66.67%, 17th), 3 subpar game. Overall WR Consistency Ranking 12th (Adams-Hill-Diggs-Ridley-Fuller-Hopkins-AJ Brown-Metcalf-Allen-Godwin-Jefferson)

Consistency Calculator

I think your data basically comes to the same result. I chose such a low bar because the statement was a low bar statement saying Julio has all these games where he's a decoy or too hurt to contribute or playing really limited snaps, etc. That just hasn't been the case, when he plays he is involved and providing a steady floor on top of the obvious blow up games he is famous for. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Almost all WRs are inconsistent week to week. Despite low TD totals Julio has been very consistent, and was again last year when healthy.

 

[MAC_32]

This offense should be explosive, should it not? 

I am skeptical their coaches will deploy them in such a manner, especially with the exit of Smith. Their game planning/strategy under Vrabel consistently leans conservative. I don't think it can be assumed they'll adapt. 

 

[Moonlight]

Curse of 370?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I am skeptical their coaches will deploy them in such a manner, especially with the exit of Smith. Their game planning/strategy under Vrabel consistently leans conservative. I don't think it can be assumed they'll adapt. 

There's no way you can screw up Julio AJB and Henry, you cannot do a thing wrong on offense when you are swinging that going into the stadium every week. Don Strock would know what to do and I don't think it will take Tannehill long to figure it out. He's gonna be like a kid in the candy store going over his reads. Reynolds is not exactly a terrible WR3 either. 

Buffalo, KC, TN, there is no end to the Motley Crue of offenses in the AFC, it's like the Monsters of Rock Tour. Then you have others like Baltimore and Cleveland and don't forget that Sasquatch running around out there in Los Angeles, we've only seen a fraction of what he is going to turn into for those Bolts.   

 

[JohnnyU]

How chronic is it really? He missed 7 games last season, but only missed 4 games in the previous 6 seasons combined.

Doesn't father time have a role in the probability that his lower body issues resurface more often, with longer recovery time? 

 

[Ilov80s]

Doesn't father time have a role in the probability that his lower body issues resurface more often, with longer recovery time? 

Age certainly increases the chances of being hurt and makes it tougher to recover. The thing some of us were saying though is that Julio doesn't have a chronic injury problem. He strained his hamstring last year. The last time Julio had an official hamstring injury was week 1 in 2015. It's not a chronic problem. 

 

[MAC_32]

There's no way you can screw up Julio AJB and Henry, you cannot do a thing wrong on offense when you are swinging that going into the stadium every week.

With the acquisition of Julio this team has the tools to be one of the league's best, but like any other team coaching can absolutely screw this up. Vrabel's got some unique strengths as a head coach, but his early down tendencies with Henry and punting in +EV situations are problems. The former increases the likelihood of 3rd and long (behind a poor pass blocking OL) and the latter means they need to get first downs in those situations. Combine that with an uninspiring defense and I'm tugging at my collar against more than just the league's best. 

Maybe this was an Arthur Smith problem or maybe Vrabel will adapt. Just saying I don't think it can be assumed.

 

[Ilov80s]

With the acquisition of Julio this team has the tools to be one of the league's best, but like any other team coaching can absolutely screw this up. Vrabel's got some unique strengths as a head coach, but his early down tendencies with Henry and punting in +EV situations are problems. The former increases the likelihood of 3rd and long (behind a poor pass blocking OL) and the latter means they need to get first downs in those situations. Combine that with an uninspiring defense and I'm tugging at my collar against more than just the league's best. 

Maybe this was an Arthur Smith problem or maybe Vrabel will adapt. Just saying I don't think it can be assumed.

Injuries aside, it's going to be hard for an offense so narrow to really disappoint for fantasy.