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How to draft RB's this year? (1 Viewer)

S

sportsphysio

Footballguy
As you all know, the RB situation this year is full of an incredible amount of uncertainties, more so than any year that I can recall. I was curious as to how you guys are approaching the position in a redraft scenario.

With there being so many potential busts, RBBC's, etc, does this make it MORE important to grab a 3 down RB early (potentially reaching for one in the first round), or is it wiser to wait and stockpile RB's later and nab top WR's early?  I guess my question is asking if a "zero RB lite" approach deserves greater consideration this year.

Thanks guys!

 
sportsphysio said:
As you all know, the RB situation this year is full of an incredible amount of uncertainties, more so than any year that I can recall. I was curious as to how you guys are approaching the position in a redraft scenario.

With there being so many potential busts, RBBC's, etc, does this make it MORE important to grab a 3 down RB early (potentially reaching for one in the first round), or is it wiser to wait and stockpile RB's later and nab top WR's early?  I guess my question is asking if a "zero RB lite" approach deserves greater consideration this year.

Thanks guys!
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It's all going to depend on my draft position and who's available to me.  I'm leaning more towards grabbing a RB in the first round to hopefully get a top guy but I will not rule out a WR if I feel he's fallen below where he should be going.  In the second round it basically the same thing, if there's a RB that I like there I'm going to take even if I've already taken one in the first and I'm going to feel like I have a major advantage at that position.  If I don't like the RBs I'm taking the best WR.  I'm perfectly fine with going RB/RB, WR/WR, RB,WR or WR/RB to start the draft.

After the first two rounds I really don't know what I'm going to do.  The RBs start to look like crap and not worth that position so most likely I'm going WR.  I won't rule out taking Rodgers in this round though if I don't like my other options.  The rest of the draft is all going to go by best player available and what positions I need to fill.  This is strictly for a snake draft as my strategy can be much different in an auction.

In an auction I tend to spend most of my money on WRs trying to three WR1s if I can.  I then grab a bunch of mid to low tier RBs hoping they pay off.  Haven't had much lucking hitting on RBs but have done well with my WRs.  Regardless of draft type I usually neglect QB and TE, being one of the last people to draft them.

 
I'm leaning towards going Zero RB or RBBC in middle to later rounds myself. You have potentially good talent (Eddie Lacy, ADP in New Orleans) battling for starting roles and looking at RBBCs unless an injury hits. injuries always hit during the season making FA/Waiver Wire scrambling a common tactic in leagues and I don't see this year being any different (just look at Baltimore RB situation).

Outside of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard, and Todd Gurley you may be pushing yourself to get an elite RB. Jay Ajayi's dealing with a concussion, Zeke is suspended for 6 games at the moment, and Doug Martin is suspended for 3 games. There's maybe 11 RBs who have a solid lock as a #1 RB with little to no competition and one of them is a rookie in Leonard Fournette who is barely a 2nd Round pick at his ADP in PPR leagues.

I'd rather wait and go for somebody like a Ty Montgomery/Carlos Hyde/Dalvin Cook around the 4th Round and try to fill in with guys who have some upside if things break right but it all becomes a murky washing machine by Round 6-8 tbh.

 
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I ended up waiting until the 3rd round then went RB/QB/RB/RB.  Got Crowell, Brees, ADP and Martin in a start 1 RB league.  My WRs should carry the team, start 3 and I have Michael Thomas (Keeper), Dez Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins.

 
Great points.  The decision seems to be much more difficult with picks 4-6 in a redraft in the first round...grabbing an elite WR (Jones, OBJ) vs the last of the potential elite RB's (McCoy, Gordon), so draft position will be a big consideration.  But one thought is that there seems to be more appealing WR's in the later rounds than RB's, possibly making the better strategy going with an RB early.

 
The best thing to do is not have a position formula heading into a draft.  Let the draft come to you.   Since FF is about supply and demand, I make it a point to try to get a RB1 without reaching too much.  With RB1s in limited supply, there is great demand so I weigh the RB1s a little more valuable than WR.  If you have a chance at a RB1, you take him.   

 
I am warming to drafting freeman or dmurray early and grabbing tcoleman and dhenry at a expensive backup price, I think they both can serve as a solid flex and if the starter goes down, you have a stud rb

 
mphtrilogy said:
I am warming to drafting freeman or dmurray early and grabbing tcoleman and dhenry at a expensive backup price, I think they both can serve as a solid flex and if the starter goes down, you have a stud rb
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At the 12/13 pick I am leaning freeman/Murray/Howard. Not sure they would all be there though

 
mphtrilogy said:
I am warming to drafting freeman or dmurray early and grabbing tcoleman and dhenry at a expensive backup price, I think they both can serve as a solid flex and if the starter goes down, you have a stud rb
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I wouldn't burn a pick on Coleman personally, he is overpriced and freeman is relatively injury free and in his prime

 
sportsphysio said:
Great points.  The decision seems to be much more difficult with picks 4-6 in a redraft in the first round...grabbing an elite WR (Jones, OBJ) vs the last of the potential elite RB's (McCoy, Gordon), so draft position will be a big consideration.  But one thought is that there seems to be more appealing WR's in the later rounds than RB's, possibly making the better strategy going with an RB early.
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I'm pick 5 in a 12 team PPR. The "sexy" pick is to take OBJ or Julio but I feel much better taking McCoy while WR like Dez and Hilton are still available in the second as my WR1. I'd much rather have McCoy/Dez over OBJ/Gurley.

 
DocHolliday said:
The best thing to do is not have a position formula heading into a draft.  Let the draft come to you.   Since FF is about supply and demand, I make it a point to try to get a RB1 without reaching too much.  With RB1s in limited supply, there is great demand so I weigh the RB1s a little more valuable than WR.  If you have a chance at a RB1, you take him.   
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Who would you consider a RB1 in the first or second?

 
ponchsox said:
I'm pick 5 in a 12 team PPR. The "sexy" pick is to take OBJ or Julio but I feel much better taking McCoy while WR like Dez and Hilton are still available in the second as my WR1. I'd much rather have McCoy/Dez over OBJ/Gurley.
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I'm PIck #4 .... so what was once a great spot to be (A. Brown) is now a head scratcher due to Zeke being a #######.

At first I thought OBJ was my target but really don't like who's available RB wise at #21. I'm  seriously also considering McCoy at #4 overall (he could haul in 65-70 catches)

but am a bit nervous due to his team WR issues.

 
RalphMouth said:
I'm PIck #4 .... so what was once a great spot to be (A. Brown) is now a head scratcher due to Zeke being a #######.

At first I thought OBJ was my target but really don't like who's available RB wise at #21. I'm  seriously also considering McCoy at #4 overall (he could haul in 65-70 catches)

but am a bit nervous due to his team WR issues.
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Julio over obj

 
similar situation.  Picking 6th with a wasteland of a pick.  Deciding between McCoy or Evans.

We only start 1RB, 1WR, 1TE and 2 Flex (WR/RB/TE) with 50+ yard bonuses.

I'm thinking I should reach on McCoy and then go WR heavy.  Instead of Evans and chase RB's later to piece together.

 
ponchsox said:
I'm pick 5 in a 12 team PPR. The "sexy" pick is to take OBJ or Julio but I feel much better taking McCoy while WR like Dez and Hilton are still available in the second as my WR1. I'd much rather have McCoy/Dez over OBJ/Gurley.
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Starting to not like all things Buffalo. That team could just completely tank. A lot of team risk. Would not take him that high and with my 10th pick not sure I like him their either.

 
kyoun1e said:
Starting to not like all things Buffalo. That team could just completely tank. A lot of team risk. Would not take him that high and with my 10th pick not sure I like him their either.
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The roster is too good to go into full tank mode. It's why they took players back like Matthews.  Full tank would be to just get picks.  They are acquiring draft capital to move up in the draft because they know they won't finish with a top pick to get the QB they need.  The O-line still has a few good vets on there and a lot of screens have been happening in camp.  PPR he holds value to support his ADP.

 
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ponchsox said:
I'm pick 5 in a 12 team PPR. The "sexy" pick is to take OBJ or Julio but I feel much better taking McCoy while WR like Dez and Hilton are still available in the second as my WR1. I'd much rather have McCoy/Dez over OBJ/Gurley.
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My preference there is to go Julio then Gronk, Hilton, Dez or maybe even reach on Baldwin. I am waiting a little on RB after DJ and Bell. At that 5 spot I'd rather go WR/WR or WR/Gronk. But I also like a lot of the RBs from the next few rounds. Might go Crowell at 3.05. 

 
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barackdhouse said:
My preference there is to go Julio then Gronk, Hilton or maybe even reach on Baldwin. I am waiting a little on RB after DJ and Bell. At that 5 spot I'd rather go WR/WR or WR/Gronk. But I also like a lot of the RBs from the next few rounds. Might go Crowell at 3.05. 

I like Dez and TY there in the 2nd as well, BTW.
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I still may go WR/WR and go RB later. But McCoy is tempting there. 

 
At pick ten ppr redraft I'll probably go WR, RB. A Jordy Nelson/Gordon combo would be nice. I could go WR, WR if I got Jordy and then go with McCaffret, Crowel, Lynch(maybe) etc.  in rounds 3 and 4. 

It gets ugly pretty quick at RB so I wouldn't wait too long to get one.

 
If you aren't able to get DJ/Bell/McCoy/Gordon/Murray/Freeman then you might be in trouble. Don't compound it for reaching on over valued RBs like Crowell, Gurley, etc. 

 
Weebs210 said:
No way Jags are as much of a dumpster fire as 2016 Rams. Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach now adays.
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We don't have to look far to see how the Jags RB situation can be every bit as bad as the Rams. 

2016, Rams RBs scored the fewest fantasy points in the NFL: 11.3 ppg. The Jags were the next worst with 13.3

2015, the Jags scored the fewest RB fantasy points in the league: 11.2 ppg

 
Ilov80s said:
We don't have to look far to see how the Jags RB situation can be every bit as bad as the Rams. 

2016, Rams RBs scored the fewest fantasy points in the NFL: 11.3 ppg. The Jags were the next worst with 13.3

2015, the Jags scored the fewest RB fantasy points in the league: 11.2 ppg
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Remind me who the RBs were again for the jags the past two years.

 
Ilov80s said:
We don't have to look far to see how the Jags RB situation can be every bit as bad as the Rams. 

2016, Rams RBs scored the fewest fantasy points in the NFL: 11.3 ppg. The Jags were the next worst with 13.3

2015, the Jags scored the fewest RB fantasy points in the league: 11.2 ppg
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Maybe that's why the Jags used the No. 4 overall pick on a RB?

 
Milkman said:
Do whatever you can to get David Johnson. It's like having two players in one......
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Just as a runner, DJ scored 226 points last year - which is about what Blount scored. As a receiver, he scored 112 points- which is about what Willie Snead scored.

It's a cheat code that gave owners  a mid level RB1 and an extra free flex play. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Maybe that's why the Jags used the No. 4 overall pick on a RB?
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I am sure people said the same thing when they spent the 36th pick on a RB. I think Fournette can definitely improve the Jags running game, but how much? A 20% improvement from last season and they are still the 23rd in the league in fantasy points from the RB position. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I am sure people said the same thing when they spent the 36th pick on a RB. I think Fournette can definitely improve the Jags running game, but how much? A 20% improvement from last season and they are still the 23rd in the league in fantasy points from the RB position. 
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As some one that did not like Yeldon as a prospect, I was not one who said it.

I don't think looking at the past two years is all that relevant - so the % of improvement isn't a compelling argument to me.. In 2015 the defense was terrible and they were always in catch up mode - hence Bortles top 5 QB finish. Last season the team was a mess on offense generally and you had two backs splitting the workload.

The defense should be much improved, the o-line improved and you have a GM/President and HC that want to commit to a power running game. They went out and drafted a RB at No. 4 overall and Fournette looks beastly to me. That's not to say there's no way he can fail - just that I can see a strong case that he has a top 10 RB season.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
As some one that did not like Yeldon as a prospect, I was not one who said it.

I don't think looking at the past two years is all that relevant - so the % of improvement isn't a compelling argument to me.. In 2015 the defense was terrible and they were always in catch up mode - hence Bortles top 5 QB finish. Last season the team was a mess on offense generally and you had two backs splitting the workload.

The defense should be much improved, the o-line improved and you have a GM/President and HC that want to commit to a power running game. They went out and drafted a RB at No. 4 overall and Fournette looks beastly to me. That's not to say there's no way he can fail - just that I can see a strong case that he has a top 10 RB season.
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Why won't this year be a mess on offense? Why does have 2 backs  splitting the work make their RB production bad? Seemed to work for Atlanta, New Orleans, etc. 

Absolutely there is a strong chance Fournette is top 10. I said he could have a 2015 Gurley season. That's really strong. However, you are also buying into all the usual rookie question marks on an offense that hasn't had a clue how how to get any success out of their RBs the last 2 years. I would be very nervous making Fournette my RB1. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Just as a runner, DJ scored 226 points last year - which is about what Blount scored. As a receiver, he scored 112 points- which is about what Willie Snead scored.

It's a cheat code that gave owners  a mid level RB1 and an extra free flex play. 
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Yeah I overpaid for DJ in my new start up this year. I see a lot of years left for him where his carries could be only in the low 200's but he catches so many balls he's still a top 3-4 RB in PPR. Add in his 400 point season ceiling the next 2-3 years plus the positional scarcity and you have by far the most valuable player in fantasy football.

 
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