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How will CV affect the NFL? (1 Viewer)

Tool said:
Yeah a lot of effing people will die, if you don't think that's 'not working' than not much point in saying anything else.
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I'm just of the opinion that we're past the point of no return.  US is almost certainly in the millions of cases right now and short a Wuhan style lockdown where people aren't allowed to leave their homes for any reason almost everyone is getting it.  The time for finding a solution other than herd immunity was more than a month ago.  Not saying this is the best outcome or even a good outcome.  But in my opinion it's our only outcome that's possible at this point.  There's a reason Italy is still seeing deaths even though they have had a lockdown for a few weeks.  That is because the disease is still spreading there even if slower just like it's still spreading in the US.

 
Niles Standish said:
Possibly, although this one has not mutated much at this point so I think a new strain by fall is mostly doomers.  If you're right, it will likely be here until the end of time and just a fact of life like the flu.
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Honestly, I was just going off of what Fauci said.  I haven't been paying attention too much.   It would be awesome if you were right.    I think the idea is that this will behave like the flu virus in that they'll be new common strains every year which we'll need to get vaccinated against but this fall is way too soon for a vaccine.  Things won't be nearly as bad though as we'll be far better prepared and we might even have some treatments by then.

 
Niles Standish said:
I'm just of the opinion that we're past the point of no return.  US is almost certainly in the millions of cases right now and short a Wuhan style lockdown where people aren't allowed to leave their homes for any reason almost everyone is getting it.  The time for finding a solution other than herd immunity was more than a month ago.  Not saying this is the best outcome or even a good outcome.  But in my opinion it's our only outcome that's possible at this point.  There's a reason Italy is still seeing deaths even though they have had a lockdown for a few weeks.  That is because the disease is still spreading there even if slower just like it's still spreading in the US.
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You are in the minority in your opinion and I don't believe you have a full understanding of the impact of using that strategy, but I'm not gong to change your mind so prob best to just move on.

 
Tool said:
You are in the minority in your opinion and I don't believe you have a full understanding of the impact of using that strategy, but I'm not gong to change your mind so prob best to just move on.
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Again I am making no value judgment of the strategy.  I'm saying we don't have a choice.  Social distancing or not everyone is getting it.  Even politicians pushing social distancing have come pretty close to saying we're all going to get it.  Give yourself a note to read this again in a month and I think you'll see I was right all along.

Instead of trying to change what I'm saying because you want to disagree with me.  Listen to what I actually am saying and decide whether or not you agree.

 
Niles Standish said:
Again I am making no value judgment of the strategy.  I'm saying we don't have a choice.  Social distancing or not everyone is getting it.  Even politicians pushing social distancing have come pretty close to saying we're all going to get it.  Give yourself a note to read this again in a month and I think you'll see I was right all along.

Instead of trying to change what I'm saying because you want to disagree with me.  Listen to what I actually am saying and decide whether or not you agree.
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As long as you realize that your strategy would mean that more people would die, and die in a shorter amount of time, than the current strategy being used.  

That doesn't even take into account the high number of non COVID people who would die due to lack of efficient medical services

 
waiver wire said:
2nd problem would be how can you have fans in the stadiums, every sunday has the potential of being a new hotspot and starting it again 
 
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I'd be shocked if we see fans in the stands at any sporting event in calendar year 2020.

That said, the NFL can still make bank on TV revenue.  No fans won't be an issue for them unlike college.

I agree wholeheartedly that repeated testing is a huge issue and a requirement.  it could also be a PR black eye if every NFL team is sucking up a couple hundred tests daily.

Looks like Dodds is counting on herd immunity and the virus NOT mutating. i.e. don't test players/coaches for the disease, test them for the antibody.

@fbg_dodds: I would put the odds of the NFL starting on time at or above 95% based on what we know today. This is all about testing. Today, a test to show who has recovered from the virus launched.

@fbg_dodds: so the NFL (with its deep pockets) should be able to test and monitor all of their players by the time the season starts.

@fbg_dodds: It remains to be seen if we will have fans in the stands though. But the majority of the NFL's revenues come from the TV deals.

 
Niles Standish said:
Again I am making no value judgment of the strategy.  I'm saying we don't have a choice.  Social distancing or not everyone is getting it.  Even politicians pushing social distancing have come pretty close to saying we're all going to get it.  Give yourself a note to read this again in a month and I think you'll see I was right all along.

Instead of trying to change what I'm saying because you want to disagree with me.  Listen to what I actually am saying and decide whether or not you agree.
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I'm not quite following what you're getting at here so I guess I'll  ask: what do you think we're going to see in a month that will make me see you were right along. Everyone will have it? I also don't understand your last sentence, how am I trying to change what you're saying?

 
ghostguy123 said:
As long as you realize that your strategy would mean that more people would die, and die in a shorter amount of time, than the current strategy being used.  

That doesn't even take into account the high number of non COVID people who would die due to lack of efficient medical services
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I don't have a strategy.  I'm just saying most people are going to get this with the current measures of social distancing.  And they will have had it by summer.  The reason politicians aren't fully coming out and saying that is because it's easier to get people to follow social distancing which will slow the spread over a longer period when people think they won't get it and their loved ones won't get it.

 
Tool said:
I'm not quite following what you're getting at here so I guess I'll  ask: what do you think we're going to see in a month that will make me see you were right along. Everyone will have it? I also don't understand your last sentence, how am I trying to change what you're saying?
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A month from now when numbers are still going up and deaths are still happening it will be hard to argue that our current measures will stop this disease.  Think of it this way.  Denver, CO has been different for 3 weeks now.  I am my 3rd week of WFH, my 2nd week of shelter in place.  Most deaths from Coronavirus happen by 3 weeks.  Deaths should be going down pretty fast in Colorado especially by the end of next week.  That isn't happening.  This won't happen.  That is because even with these measures the disease is spreading.

What I meant by my last sentence is you keep saying things like your plan, I don't have a plan.  I'm doing what the government says.  There's a difference between saying this is what I think the result of the current plan will be and saying this is what I think we should do.

 
Niles Standish said:
A month from now when numbers are still going up and deaths are still happening it will be hard to argue that our current measures will stop this disease.  Think of it this way.  Denver, CO has been different for 3 weeks now.  I am my 3rd week of WFH, my 2nd week of shelter in place.  Most deaths from Coronavirus happen by 3 weeks.  Deaths should be going down pretty fast in Colorado especially by the end of next week.  That isn't happening.  This won't happen.  That is because even with these measures the disease is spreading.

What I meant by my last sentence is you keep saying things like your plan, I don't have a plan.  I'm doing what the government says.  There's a difference between saying this is what I think the result of the current plan will be and saying this is what I think we should do.
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Of course the #s are going to go up, they're going to up a #$%^ ton.  That doesn't prove anything.  This virus is contagious as hell. Your making assumptions such as 'deaths should be going down pretty fast in Colorado', and I have no clue where you're coming up with these ideas.  I think you're making the argument that everyone will get this anyway so it's better for all of us to get it at same time and get it over with.  Feel free to correct me if that's not what you're saying but this would be an absolute disaster for many reasons.

 
Tool said:
Of course the #s are going to go up, they're going to up a #$%^ ton.  That doesn't prove anything.  This virus is contagious as hell. Your making assumptions such as 'deaths should be going down pretty fast in Colorado', and I have no clue where you're coming up with these ideas.  I think you're making the argument that everyone will get this anyway so it's better for all of us to get it at same time and get it over with.  Feel free to correct me if that's not what you're saying but this would be an absolute disaster for many reasons.
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1) If the virus is still spreading like wildfire after all of the social distancing steps we are taking then it's going to continue to spread without additional steps.  That should be obvious to everyone in a month.  It honestly should be obvious in places like Colorado and the Bay Area that have already had pretty strong social distancing for 3 weeks.  Or Italy which has been under lockdown for what a month?

2) I have not said it's better for us all to get it at the same time.  Slowing the spread helps out the healthcare system and improves care.  I'm making no value statements about what I think we should do, I'm just talking about likely results from our current actions.

 
Niles Standish said:
1) If the virus is still spreading like wildfire after all of the social distancing steps we are taking then it's going to continue to spread without additional steps.  That should be obvious to everyone in a month.  It honestly should be obvious in places like Colorado and the Bay Area that have already had pretty strong social distancing for 3 weeks.  Or Italy which has been under lockdown for what a month?

2) I have not said it's better for us all to get it at the same time.  Slowing the spread helps out the healthcare system and improves care.  I'm making no value statements about what I think we should do, I'm just talking about likely results from our current actions.
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I've got to throw in the towel on this discussion man, be safe.

 
Niles Standish said:
I don't have a strategy.  I'm just saying most people are going to get this with the current measures of social distancing.  And they will have had it by summer.  The reason politicians aren't fully coming out and saying that is because it's easier to get people to follow social distancing which will slow the spread over a longer period when people think they won't get it and their loved ones won't get it.
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Of course most everyone will get it.  

However, the more people that have it at one time the more people will due due to lack of available medical care.

What part about that are you not understanding?

 
Let’s play this out a little. What would happen if the league (or other sports for that matter) started playing in front of fans  again and that fueled a secondary virus flare up in that city? Would that cause a league to call the season? Maybe take a two month break? Or would they just press on? Would the league get sued?

 
ghostguy123 said:
Of course most everyone will get it.  

However, the more people that have it at one time the more people will due due to lack of available medical care.

What part about that are you not understanding?
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I'm not sure why you're resorting to being condescending.  I have been civil.

Anyway, it's pretty clear you are going to take what I say and twist it to the argument you're rearing for.

 
JaxBill said:
I'd be shocked if we see fans in the stands at any sporting event in calendar year 2020.

That said, the NFL can still make bank on TV revenue.  No fans won't be an issue for them unlike college.

I agree wholeheartedly that repeated testing is a huge issue and a requirement.  it could also be a PR black eye if every NFL team is sucking up a couple hundred tests daily.

Looks like Dodds is counting on herd immunity and the virus NOT mutating. i.e. don't test players/coaches for the disease, test them for the antibody.

@fbg_dodds: I would put the odds of the NFL starting on time at or above 95% based on what we know today. This is all about testing. Today, a test to show who has recovered from the virus launched.

@fbg_dodds: so the NFL (with its deep pockets) should be able to test and monitor all of their players by the time the season starts.

@fbg_dodds: It remains to be seen if we will have fans in the stands though. But the majority of the NFL's revenues come from the TV deals.
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Jax, I've taken no real position on what happened around here with David and the boards on the political front, even going so far as to feel sympathy towards his right to hold his views and disheartened that people were cruel to him about them, but that past performance has got to enter into what we think of his current predictions about the virus. If it's at all colored by politics and/or socialization and organizational theories, then they've got to be taken with a grain of salt. I have a lot of respect for the man, it's just that the run up to 2016 was sort of off the rails with the Deep State/Comet Pizza-type stuff.

 
Niles Standish said:
1) If it is as prevalent as I think the death rate is closer to what populations that have more widely tested see (less than 1%) and what has been postulated by scientific journals like Lancet (less than 1%).  And less like countries that are too overwhelmed to test like Italy or Spain are reporting (more than 10%).  And while people will die (I think that is basically guaranteed at this point optimist or not) it's not going to be as bad as a lot of people are theorizing from an overall numbers standpoint.

2) Immunity which is speculated will hold and this thing won't mutate and hold the world hostage for the rest of time.  A vaccine won't stop this if it mutates by the way.  So the people that are guessing this will mutate and a new strain will hit by fall are basically saying this is just a fact of the world for the forseeable future.
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Even if the death rate is 1% now, it sure as heck won’t be if 40-80million people are sick (Numbers you gave above). At that point, never mind the ventilator shortage, you can completely forget about going to the hospital at all. They will just say good luck. 

 
@AdamSchefter: In conference call with major league sports commissioners on Saturday, President Donald Trump said he believes the NFL season should start on time in September, sources familiar with the call told @wojespn and me. More on call coming at http://ESPN.com.

@AdamSchefter: Donald Trump also told commissioners that he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic. https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1246510219062054912

 
I’ve said it like 5 times in here but trump pushing the nfl to a disastrous start for the quick numbers pop and because it’s “good for the country to recover” (he will say this exact sentence at some point, I guarantee it) is the most obvious thing ever and will without a doubt happen.   

 
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On his daily press briefing just now @GavinNewsom tells me flatly re #NFL starting season on time w/fans in stands in the CA stadiums: "I’m not anticipating that happening in this state."

 
Nipsey said:
On his daily press briefing just now @GavinNewsom tells me flatly re #NFL starting season on time w/fans in stands in the CA stadiums: "I’m not anticipating that happening in this state."
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Everybody going into the stadium would have to show proof of immunity from the virus. I don't think we'll be there just yet

 
I change my vote after today's meeting.   There's no way the NFL doesn't have its schedule affected.   They've just been mushed.  

 
The draft will happen but I don't see a complete season. 32 teams, 53 players and staff traveling and going to and from stadiums. Players will get the virus and what happens then?

 
metoo said:
The draft will happen but I don't see a complete season. 32 teams, 53 players and staff traveling and going to and from stadiums. Players will get the virus and what happens then?
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I originally thought the draft would be postponed since it correlated with the predicted spike of the virus. I was thinking by that time we would have tens of thousands of people dying a day. It will still be a lot of people dying but not with the catastrophic numbers I first thought. This is more of a long drawn out process of misery instead of a giant spike. I do think the draft will happen and they will do it in a way that brings attention to what is going on while providing some entertainment. We are seeing the online concerts and shows already. 

I'm more encouraged about the season happening. I agree with you that it probably won't be a complete season. I think the league is gonna have to get very creative to figure this out. I know Major League Baseball is brainstorming ideas to get their season started. I suppose we are gonna have to wait and see what the damage is in the next few weeks.

 
rockaction said:
Siouxsie Sioux says Peek-a-boo.

Nah, that's wild. How many rinks does ND have and would it be in front of fans?
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No fans. Read it this morning but I believe I saw 2 rinks, which are more Nhl-caliber than most arenas they were considering nationwide. 

 
Capella said:
No fans. Read it this morning but I believe I saw 2 rinks, which are more Nhl-caliber than most arenas they were considering nationwide. 
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Wow. If one player has it, they'll surely all get it. You might be right about the greed, man. I dunno. I just thought it had limits. Never assume anything can't be more cynical than it already is, I guess. That used to be our mantra over at Reason when I used to comment there. Never assume a politician has good intentions when, if examined, cynicism will do. 

 
Nipsey said:
On his daily press briefing just now @GavinNewsom tells me flatly re #NFL starting season on time w/fans in stands in the CA stadiums: "I’m not anticipating that happening in this state."
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Yep. No way Newsom will allow CA teams fly out and other teams fly in until it's very much in control nationwide. 

 
Capella said:
No fans. Read it this morning but I believe I saw 2 rinks, which are more Nhl-caliber than most arenas they were considering nationwide. 
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Not sure there are enough hotels so maybe bring in a bunch of double wides? Dudes in mullets would fit right in.

 
rockaction said:
Wow. If one player has it, they'll surely all get it. You might be right about the greed, man. I dunno. I just thought it had limits. Never assume anything can't be more cynical than it already is, I guess. That used to be our mantra over at Reason when I used to comment there. Never assume a politician has good intentions when, if examined, cynicism will do. 
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I would think having a fast test would be a prerequisite for this.

 
Capella said:
No fans. Read it this morning but I believe I saw 2 rinks, which are more Nhl-caliber than most arenas they were considering nationwide. 
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 I live in the city they are talking about. I only know one rink that would NHL caliber. There is a practice rink for UND but I doubt that would work. Although cool to hav it happen without being able to actually go see it in person I'm not sure I want this in my city. 

 
I'm wondering on earth the NFL is going to monitor whether or not key team decision makers are staying home or isolating themselves during the draft? How will they know if a few key scouts drive over to the GM's house, or the GM and a few key scouts head over the owner's house? Having a hard time really believing the GM's going to be in his house alone, the owner in his house alone, and so on and so on.

 
The NFL playing this season, never mind starting anything close to on time, is a pipe dream.  

60K+ plus cannot congregate until there is a vaccine.  And no ones wants to watch sports with no one in the stands.  

 
CurlyNight said:
ZWK said:
Sources: MLB, union focused on plan that could allow season to start as early as May in Arizona

MLB is discussing plans to have the whole season in Arizona, with no fans at games and personnel staying in a baseball bubble without outside contact.
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You won't see CA teams there.
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Why not? It doesn't involve stadiums full of fans and it doesn't involve teams flying between cities. All the people with the CA teams would be away from CA for a few months.

 
zoonation said:
The NFL playing this season, never mind starting anything close to on time, is a pipe dream.  

60K+ plus cannot congregate until there is a vaccine.  And no ones wants to watch sports with no one in the stands.  
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They could use a virtual crowd

 
zoonation said:
The NFL playing this season, never mind starting anything close to on time, is a pipe dream.  

60K+ plus cannot congregate until there is a vaccine.  And no ones wants to watch sports with no one in the stands.  
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No one thinks the fans will be there and your last sentence is hysterically wrong. 

 
menobrown said:
I'm wondering on earth the NFL is going to monitor whether or not key team decision makers are staying home or isolating themselves during the draft? How will they know if a few key scouts drive over to the GM's house, or the GM and a few key scouts head over the owner's house? Having a hard time really believing the GM's going to be in his house alone, the owner in his house alone, and so on and so on.
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Wouldn't they just be able to Skype, Zoom, Microsoft Teams, etc?

 
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