How do you feel Colston's numbers will be effected with the addition of Shockey? Two days ago I decided that I was going to draft Colston over Fitz in the first round of my keeper league, and now I'm having second thoughts. Do you think Colston's numbers will improve due to Shockey drawing coverage away? Or will Shockey steal too many of his red zone targets? Or will it not effect him at all?
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How will Shockey effect Colston's numbers? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RJS113
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Buffaloes
Footballguy
I think this only helps Colston. Defenses will have to pay more attention to the middle of the field, leaving a little more room for Colston out on the perimeter. Adding another playmaker for this offense will only keep the defenses from rolling their coverage to Colston IMO. I think Colston benefits from this trade. Look at the Dallas offense as a template. they have a top #1 WR and a top option at TE with a weak #2...similar to New Orleans.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Brees throws a ton, and NO has needed a WR2 for a while - and that may be Shockey.
I'd suspect that Bush gets fewer targets and is more impacted than Colston.
I'd suspect that Bush gets fewer targets and is more impacted than Colston.
I'm wrestling with the same issues and the search function dug up this neglected thread. I'm worried Shockey may cut into Colston's redzone receptions which would have a significant impact on Colston's overall fantasy value. The reason Colston was drafted so late was because he was more of a "'tweener" WR/TE combo. He doesn't fit the traditional WR mold - he's not a burner and at 6' 4" and 235 he's built more like a small TE (write your own "small TE" joke). According to FFI, he was targeted a dozen times inside the five yardline last season, more than any other WR. I think there is real reason for concern that Shockey cuts into those redzone looks. Remember, Drew Brees was the same QB who originally helped make Gates the number one fantasy TE - he's very comfortable throwing to the TE.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
I don't think it will affect Colston much.
I do think it will have a big impact on Reggie Bush though. It's going to be a lot harder for teams to shadow him on short passing routes with Shockey also drawing attention in the middle of the field. Also Shockey is the best blocking TE the Saints have had since probably Wesley Walls.
I do think it will have a big impact on Reggie Bush though. It's going to be a lot harder for teams to shadow him on short passing routes with Shockey also drawing attention in the middle of the field. Also Shockey is the best blocking TE the Saints have had since probably Wesley Walls.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
I wouldn't call 4.50 and 4.55 "a freakish performance" at the combine. For the record, I'm actually big on Colston's ability. His size and body control are what separate him from most other WRs and make him such a dangerous threat. i'm just saying he's not a burner, especially at the wideout position.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/sports/f...l/12saints.html
Marques Colston vividly remembers watching the N.F.L. draft in April, waiting for his name to be called.
Almost two days passed, and Colston was still waiting. Pizza turned cold. Drinks became warm.
Colston was perplexed. Did scouts and coaches not respect that he was the career leader in receiving yardage at Hofstra University, which also produced receiver Wayne Chrebet, who retired last December after 11 seasons with the Jets? Were people not impressed at the scouting combine, where Colston ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds?
“I know I’m biased,” Mark Clouser, Colston’s agent, said during a telephone interview, “but as the draft when on, I couldn’t believe that the N.F.L. was this clueless about Marques. Being conservative, I figured he’d be gone by the fourth round. He’s just what teams look for in a receiver: a 6-foot-4, 225-pound guy who can run, with good hands, and he’s a good person. I know he played Division I-AA, so that’s one stigma he had to overcome. But by the sixth round, I’m thinking, Whoever gets this guy now has stolen him.”
Marques Colston vividly remembers watching the N.F.L. draft in April, waiting for his name to be called.
Almost two days passed, and Colston was still waiting. Pizza turned cold. Drinks became warm.
Colston was perplexed. Did scouts and coaches not respect that he was the career leader in receiving yardage at Hofstra University, which also produced receiver Wayne Chrebet, who retired last December after 11 seasons with the Jets? Were people not impressed at the scouting combine, where Colston ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds?
“I know I’m biased,” Mark Clouser, Colston’s agent, said during a telephone interview, “but as the draft when on, I couldn’t believe that the N.F.L. was this clueless about Marques. Being conservative, I figured he’d be gone by the fourth round. He’s just what teams look for in a receiver: a 6-foot-4, 225-pound guy who can run, with good hands, and he’s a good person. I know he played Division I-AA, so that’s one stigma he had to overcome. But by the sixth round, I’m thinking, Whoever gets this guy now has stolen him.”
Thanks for providing the article, A. S. I sincerely prefer it when people post some evidence to support their position. However, I think the author may be either basing this on Colston or his agent's memory of his 40 time which differs from the official times provided by the combine:LINKhttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/sports/f...l/12saints.html
Marques Colston vividly remembers watching the N.F.L. draft in April, waiting for his name to be called.
Almost two days passed, and Colston was still waiting. Pizza turned cold. Drinks became warm.
Colston was perplexed. Did scouts and coaches not respect that he was the career leader in receiving yardage at Hofstra University, which also produced receiver Wayne Chrebet, who retired last December after 11 seasons with the Jets? Were people not impressed at the scouting combine, where Colston ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds?
“I know I’m biased,” Mark Clouser, Colston’s agent, said during a telephone interview, “but as the draft when on, I couldn’t believe that the N.F.L. was this clueless about Marques. Being conservative, I figured he’d be gone by the fourth round. He’s just what teams look for in a receiver: a 6-foot-4, 225-pound guy who can run, with good hands, and he’s a good person. I know he played Division I-AA, so that’s one stigma he had to overcome. But by the sixth round, I’m thinking, Whoever gets this guy now has stolen him.”
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That's really a great point. Shockey is regularly banged up because of his playing style. However, fantasy-wise I'm a bit reluctant to use an early round pick on a player if I really believe that his ability to post huge numbers are dependent on an injury to a teammate. It's not to say that I think colston will be mediocre this year - I don't - I just think he may be overvalued a bit given his situation with Shockey on the team and Brees' history of targeting the TE.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
http://media.www.hofstrachronicle.com/medi...616-page2.shtml
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footb...27905?page_no=2
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=682796
Again,
Either way, he's not slow. My point was that the reason he got drafted had nothing to do with a lack of physical attributes, but because he went to a small school.
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footb...27905?page_no=2
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=682796
Again,
Either way, he's not slow. My point was that the reason he got drafted had nothing to do with a lack of physical attributes, but because he went to a small school.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
What he said
I'm not sure where those times originated from, but none of those are reported as "official combine" numbers (some of them are even qualified as "unofficial"). I would be happy to post several more listings for the same times I posted previously, but people can easily google "2006 official combine results" and view the numbers as many times as they'd like. Again, I'm not slamming Colston for his abilities (or lack there of). I think he's a stud, but IMHO, he will be a stud with fewer scoring opportunities than he had last year. I just don't see the Saints making a high profile trade for Shockey (who they were very open about pursuing even before the draft) and then not make him a factor in the passing game - particularly near the goalline where Colston lead all WRs in targets last season.http://media.www.hofstrachronicle.com/medi...616-page2.shtml
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footb...27905?page_no=2
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=682796
Again,Either way, he's not slow. My point was that the reason he got drafted had nothing to do with a lack of physical attributes, but because he went to a small school.
Jeff or MoP: I respect both of your opinions quite a bit, but what are you basing this on? I've read several posts where this has been presented as conventional wisdom, but I've never seen any arguments as to why.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
Ah, I get it. "Officially".I suppose, then, that somebody should tell all these DBs Colston keeps outrunning that they "officially" timed faster than he did.
But that's really not the point. At any rate, Eric Johnson didn't affect Colston's numbers at all last year, and Brees threw his way quite a bit. So I don't see a big reason to downgrade Colston merely because of Shockey's presence (now, Meachem's potential effect on Colston may be another matter).
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But my point is that Colston is not a downfield burner blowing by DBs for those long downfield scores, he's a player whose fantasy value is dependent on his redzone scoring which is exactly where Shockey is likely to have a big impact. Of Colston's 11 TDs last year, do you know how many of those were in the redzone? Ten - only Randy Moss had more redzone scores than Colston last year. In fact, the majority of Colston's scoring TDs (6 of 11) actually came inside the five yard line. Again, I see this as a place where Shockey could really cut into Colston's scoring opportunities.Ah, I get it. "Officially".I suppose, then, that somebody should tell all these DBs Colston keeps outrunning that they "officially" timed faster than he did.But that's really not the point. At any rate, Eric Johnson didn't affect Colston's numbers at all last year, and Brees threw his way quite a bit. So I don't see a big reason to downgrade Colston merely because of Shockey's presence (now, Meachem's potential effect on Colston may be another matter).
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Shockey did not have a negative effect on Plaxico for the last couple of years and he plays in a similar style to Colston. Burress was always the redzone/jump ball guy.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
That's a very good point. Although, we've never seen Plaxico without Shockey in NY, so maybe Plax will get a few more scoring opportunities then he would have if Shockey were still there.
Actually I don't have my mind made up. I've been wrestling with this for a couple days arguing with myself and trying to decide whether or not to drop Colston from the #4 WR slot where I currently have him projected. I just have this feeling I'm screwed if I drop his projections and let him fall to someone else, but I'm also screwed and destined to kick myself if I take him where I currently have him listed for his VBD number.
ETA: and yes..... I do realize what a neurotic ### I sound like.
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- NO had a record number of pass attempts last season, that likely won't be repeated. So knock their pass attempts down by at least 10%, that isn't good for any receiving options in NO.
- Colston and Shockey both make their living over the middle of the field, they are going to be fighting for targets over the middle where they both excel the most
- Shockey is a great red-zone target, Colston won't get as many red-zone targets with Shockey there.
I don't see any scenario where having Shockey will be good for Colston.
- Colston and Shockey both make their living over the middle of the field, they are going to be fighting for targets over the middle where they both excel the most
- Shockey is a great red-zone target, Colston won't get as many red-zone targets with Shockey there.
I don't see any scenario where having Shockey will be good for Colston.
themanbeast9
Footballguy
I think this will only help Colston and improve his numbers. Defenses will have to key on Shockey now which will mean less double-teams for Colston.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'll be happy to respond...when you look at the New Orleans Saints Offense, would you say they are top5? I would. In fact my top 4 offenses are probably New England Dallas, Indy, and NO...pretty safe bet the QBs, WRs, TEs all finish with potentially great stats. So under that mindset and the fact that the TE position is now being used much more than it was in the late 80s thru the end of the 90s...you have to assume that a guy that has been to 4 Pro Bowls and had 74 catches for 894 yds his rookie year. He went to several of those pro Bowls with very shaky QB play. Don't you think Drew brees is an upgrade over Eli Manning? It is because Manning only completes about 55-58% of his passes, and Brees is well over 60%, maybe close to 62-63% but I would have to double check. Brees already worked with a Pro Bowl TE in Antonio Gates, those two seemed to hook up nicely. There are so many reasons to love Shockey but the next thing is simply think about all the times you passed in your draft on Jason Witten? He had an off year in terms of points in 2006 so everyone like sheep passed on him again and again last year...some of us even were cocky enough to keep passing on him when we could have had him as our TE2...don't make the same mistake this year guys. I am not a projection guy but Shcokey could easily have a career year and post something like 80-1,000-7 TD...I find those numbers very easy to believe, and the floor for him has to be about 55-700-5 TD...I just can't see him as long as he is healthy not hitting some big numbers in this offense. The odds are with you, not against you that he ill succeed. A good poker analogy might be that you can get all your money in with 2:1 odds in your favor...that is what I would put on him. And you can get him at least 3-4 rounds after Witten, Gonzo, KWII, and Gates are gone. He's a steal
hauser42
Footballguy
I think that Colston's numbers will be close to the same. Shockey is going to open up the field as he draws coverage his way and away from Colston.
NO passing games will put up big numbers, this team still does not have much of a running game to help out. Bush is not the great running that most thought he would be coming out, Duece knee's are going to keep his work load down, and the other guys are all fillers.
NO passing games will put up big numbers, this team still does not have much of a running game to help out. Bush is not the great running that most thought he would be coming out, Duece knee's are going to keep his work load down, and the other guys are all fillers.
My bad for not being more specific. I fully agree that Shockey is in for a big year. I meant why do you not see his (Shockey's) production cutting into Colston's stats (especially TD receptions)?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I moved Smith down and Colston up. I have Colston #4 on my board easily.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
last year a lot of people were worried about the same thing in Dallas with T.O. and Witten..and just like last year, the TE will make the WR better ..
By opening up holes for Colston and absorbing coverages, Shockey will allow Colston to be in more single-coverage situations.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
i think you are right in your comparison. another would be Edwards/KWII, its like having 2 very good wideouts in this days game. I look at shockey more as the WR2 on that team behind colston. with the comparison to TO/Witten and Edwards/KWII, they have no real threat at the WR2 spot and i'd even say that of those 3 teams the saints running game is the worst which will mean they will be throwing alot. yes, shockey will take some of colstons looks in and out of the redzone, but he'll also be drawing coverage away from him. his number of receptions probably goes down a bit, but i'd say his yards and tds stay about the same, if not go up a little.just my 2 cents..
inca911
Footballguy
See Dave Barnett's FBG Freelance Article for more thoughts on this exact subject:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...e_barnett01.php
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...e_barnett01.php
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Witten and Owens don't seem to have a problem in Dallas being able to cohabitat in the offense and post great numbers. NO is every bit as high powered on offense as the Cowboys now.inca911 said:
trader jake
Footballguy
That seems to be the conventional wisdom. Depends on Shockey's health as much as anything.
DoubleG
Footballguy
I think another concern would not be Colston but Shockey himself. The Saints don't throw much to the TEs (and haven't in several years). For that reason, I think Colston's #'s will stay about the same and the hit will come on Bush's numbers, as already noted, as the TE is more of check down route for the Saints than used extensively as a receiving option.
Of course, this may change, but I would have more concerns about Shockey's value (apart from his health) or even Bush's moreso than Colston's.
Of course, this may change, but I would have more concerns about Shockey's value (apart from his health) or even Bush's moreso than Colston's.
