How's your housing market? (1 Viewer)

[Zod]

Just up Coburg Rd from us, we're off Willakenzie. 

I already have football season tix through a friend (he's had them for 21 years but just moved to Florida), have women's hoops season tix, and waiting for men's hoops and track & field to go on sale.  

We'll have to meet up to tailgate for a game this fall!  I did get tickets to go to the Ohio State game with some buddies so looking forward to that.

 

[SFBayDuck]

We'll have to meet up to tailgate for a game this fall!  I did get tickets to go to the Ohio State game with some buddies so looking forward to that.

Absolutely, we have two tailgate spots right near the footbridge. @General Malaisewill have to join us when he comes down from PDX to visit his kid.

And I also just booked the tOSU game, looking forward to that!

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

sqft is the biggest factor in valuations for sure but there are always things that can make things screwy too. So, for example, if the sqft increase makes it very unusual for your area then you would lose a lot of the the 'value' out of it. If you had a house on the bigger side for the neighborhood already adding my sqft really loses it's ROI. However, if your house is on the smaller side then the added sqft would have a much greater ROI.

In general, the losing bedroom versus adding sqft should be favorable to you in valuation. 

Keep in mind, appraisal and being attractive for selling are not exactly one in the same. @Getzlaf15 could touch on this more from the realtor perspective... but from the OP, it sounded like the bedroom you are losing was in an odd spot of the house. So, on paper it may show 4 beds but when it shows, people will not really like it or consider it a 4th bed. A larger and more open kitchen (which is a big selling point these days) is likely to play better for showing than an odd 4th bed. And then there is there is another though with the attic, if you add an egress (window that can be used to exit), have it's own door and has a closet then that is bedroom too. (I think there is a min sqft requirement which I don't remember but 400sqft is surely large enough). Then you keep a 4th bedroom, add 400 sqft and enlarge/open up the kitchen. No loss and all gain. 

Also, I am going to say that this is outside of my expertise... I know enough to be dangerous since I deal with appraisals often but I don't have near enough knowledge to actually write one up if I needed to. So a certain amount of salt to be added here but the above is solid info. The specifics of all that gets harder. 

Some more details, and don't need a response. Just FYI.

3,100 sf house. Was 5 BRs til we knocked the wall down next to the kitchen. Not a 4BR. 

Attic conversion will be 2 great rooms and a full story above our second floor (pics at some point). I tried to swap our lost BR to one of these rooms, which is permitted space (we will work with the Country to change the house specs). Code here is there must be a bathroom within 1/2 floor of the room, in addition to closet and egress. Can't do that. Too pricey. And some potential buyer will recognize the attic can be at least 1 BR, maybe 2. 

Now my angle here is I don't want to pay added property tax on the reassessed valuation once the ~300sf is added. We will be here for 15 more years, very likely, so would prefer not to pay the added property tax. But we want to lock in the sf because who knows, maybe we need to move quickly for some reason, and we are being grandfathered on some stuff that may not be there with a new building inspector (e.g., our stairwell is narrow, not to code).

You guys are great. Thanks for the thoughts.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

sqft is the biggest factor in valuations for sure but there are always things that can make things screwy too. So, for example, if the sqft increase makes it very unusual for your area then you would lose a lot of the the 'value' out of it. If you had a house on the bigger side for the neighborhood already adding my sqft really loses it's ROI. However, if your house is on the smaller side then the added sqft would have a much greater ROI.

In general, the losing bedroom versus adding sqft should be favorable to you in valuation. 

Keep in mind, appraisal and being attractive for selling are not exactly one in the same. @Getzlaf15 could touch on this more from the realtor perspective... but from the OP, it sounded like the bedroom you are losing was in an odd spot of the house. So, on paper it may show 4 beds but when it shows, people will not really like it or consider it a 4th bed. A larger and more open kitchen (which is a big selling point these days) is likely to play better for showing than an odd 4th bed. And then there is there is another though with the attic, if you add an egress (window that can be used to exit), have it's own door and has a closet then that is bedroom too. (I think there is a min sqft requirement which I don't remember but 400sqft is surely large enough). Then you keep a 4th bedroom, add 400 sqft and enlarge/open up the kitchen. No loss and all gain. 

Also, I am going to say that this is outside of my expertise... I know enough to be dangerous since I deal with appraisals often but I don't have near enough knowledge to actually write one up if I needed to. So a certain amount of salt to be added here but the above is solid info. The specifics of all that gets harder. 

Some more details, and don't need a response. Just FYI.

3,100 sf house. Was 5 BRs til we knocked the wall down next to the kitchen. Now a 4BR. 

Attic conversion will be 2 great rooms and a full story above our second floor (pics at some point). I tried to swap our lost BR to one of these rooms, which is permitted space (we will work with the Country to change the house specs). Code here is there must be a bathroom within 1/2 floor of the room, in addition to closet and egress. Can't do that. Too pricey. And some potential buyer will recognize the attic can be at least 1 BR, maybe 2. 

Now my angle here is I don't want to pay added property tax on the reassessed valuation once the ~300sf is added. We will be here for 15 more years, very likely, so would prefer not to pay the added property tax. But we want to lock in the sf because who knows, maybe we need to move quickly for some reason, and we are being grandfathered on some stuff that may not be there with a new building inspector (e.g., our stairwell is narrow, not to code).

You guys are great. Thanks for the thoughts.

 

[Zegras11]

LOL.. mice went up $18k.

up $6k today

 

[Runkle]

I mean, I’ve dealt with some incredibly horrible appraisers before so I’m not sure an algo isn’t necessarily better than the human element at times. Last appraisal I had done the guy came in complaining about how hot the housing market was and another bubble was going to burst and people were going to be left holding the bag. I was like uhhhhh

I had an appraisal done where the appraiser just looked up the pictures on zillow 

 

[Captain Cranks]

I had an appraisal done where the appraiser just looked up the pictures on zillow 

Would rather have that than my appraiser who measured the house at least 600 sf lower than it is.  I asked him to remeasure and within 2 hours he filed a report to say he stands by his number (obviously didn't remeasure).  Knowing he was wrong, I had the seller send me their appraisal from 7 years ago so I could see the measurements.  Once I was able to isolate where the difference was, I drove to the house and measured some of the walls.  Sure enough, he was wrong.  #######.

 

[Chemical X]

my neighborhood is now selling at $215/sq ft.

i bought at about $137.

 

[irish eyes]

I had an appraisal done where the appraiser just looked up the pictures on zillow 

Would rather have that than my appraiser who measured the house at least 600 sf lower than it is.  I asked him to remeasure and within 2 hours he filed a report to say he stands by his number (obviously didn't remeasure).  Knowing he was wrong, I had the seller send me their appraisal from 7 years ago so I could see the measurements.  Once I was able to isolate where the difference was, I drove to the house and measured some of the walls.  Sure enough, he was wrong.  #######.

Literally no brain required to be an appraiser. They just a pick a number and move on and dont care. 

 

[eoMMan]

Question about getting offers and when to wait/accept/decline....

My friend's realtor advised her to list her house on a Monday afternoon. Fast forward to Tuesday night, she has had close to a dozen showings and received about 6 offers with the two highest being about 1.5% above list. The friend ideally would like to wait until Saturday night to make a decision because she thinks people working during the week (ie people with money) would like to see the house on Saturday and possibly make an offer.

What do you think?

Her realtor is pushing her to put "offer your best and final offer" either Wednesday night or Thursday night.

Is this bad etiquette? Is it bad form to wait roughly 5 days for all offers to come?

 

[dkp993]

Closed on my new home today. Glad to be out of the battlefield that is this market, but ultimately the risk and fight was worth it.  

 

[Zegras11]

Question about getting offers and when to wait/accept/decline....

My friend's realtor advised her to list her house on a Monday afternoon. Fast forward to Tuesday night, she has had close to a dozen showings and received about 6 offers with the two highest being about 1.5% above list. The friend ideally would like to wait until Saturday night to make a decision because she thinks people working during the week (ie people with money) would like to see the house on Saturday and possibly make an offer.

What do you think?

Her realtor is pushing her to put "offer your best and final offer" either Wednesday night or Thursday night.

Is this bad etiquette? Is it bad form to wait roughly 5 days for all offers to come?

People withdraw offers all the time when they find one they like better after waiting a few days.

They often feel disrespected if they put in a solid offer and are made to wait or feel their offer will be used against them.

If she wanted to wait til Saturday, she should have waited til Wed nite or Thur am to list it, like 80% of the listings do these days for that very reason.

Major ooof to list on a Monday IMO. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have been tempted to buy some land, even at the elevated prices. Buy two camper trailers and live out of those for a while. Based on some research, I could quadruple my property size, and have 250k in the bank. The temptation exists. Especially since I found two campers that are almost nicer than my house.

Not sure your age but we're in our late 40s now and I wrestle with having to wait until we're in our 60s to enjoy the fruits of our labor and I keep trying to figure out how to get as much liquid in the now while still keeping those 401k/Roth/etc still going so we will have some for later. 

I love your idea, we could do something like this in Florida, still some deep areas in away from the beach you can buy land or maybe we would buy some land somewhere in the mountains of GA/NC and rent out our home we live in now and continue to watch it rise over time.

It's fun to think about 

 

[eoMMan]

Just closed on the sale our house. We took a cash offer even though we had some higher FHA offers.

The market can go ahead and crumble now. 

 

[Gawain]

We bought December 19. House next door which is a solid comp (newer driveway, we have a deck) sold for 27.5% more than we paid. 

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

Just closed on the sale our house. We took a cash offer even though we had some higher FHA offers.

The market can go ahead and crumble now. 

What will you do now? Are you buying another home? Renting? Joining the homeless army?

 

[eoMMan]

What will you do now? Are you buying another home? Renting? Joining the homeless army?

Renting for a year or two and watching the market. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Renting for a year or two and watching the market. 

How does this strategy make you money?  Considering the cost to sell and now paying rent, how much of a market drop would you need a year or two from now to make this worth it?  And would you finance or pay cash?

 

[eoMMan]

How does this strategy make you money?  Considering the cost to sell and now paying rent, how much of a market drop would you need a year or two from now to make this worth it?  And would you finance or pay cash?

We did well (bought as foreclosure in 2009) and not trying to time the market to it's perfect peak. It was a good time for us to bounce and chill for a little while.

Yes, we will finance our next house but with a very nice down pmnt.

 

[ghostguy123]

We did well (bought as foreclosure in 2009) and not trying to time the market to it's perfect peak. It was a good time for us to bounce and chill for a little while.

Yes, we will finance our next house but with a very nice down pmnt.

I am not sure you really answered the question.

Run some numbers for me from now until your next home purchase.  I am trying to figure out how selling now to rent ends up being a money maker.  What needs to happen for this to be a wise financial move?

I see two major expenses, the cost to sell a house and whatever rent is paid.  How is that money recouped and then some?

I am serious, not trying to be a D

If you have other reasons that are not financial that could obviously factor in, I realize that.

 

[eoMMan]

I am not sure you really answered the question.

Run some numbers for me from now until your next home purchase.  I am trying to figure out how selling now to rent ends up being a money maker.  What needs to happen for this to be a wise financial move?

I see two major expenses, the cost to sell a house and whatever rent is paid.  How is that money recouped and then some?

I am serious, not trying to be a D

If you have other reasons that are not financial that could obviously factor in, I realize that.

Very odd take...

Like I said, not trying to time the market perfectly. We were up quite a bit and decided to get out. Also, we knew that over the next 3 or 5 years, we would most likely incur some larger house expenses (AC unit is about 10 years old, well water system is getting up there, etc.). And speaking of well water, we hate it. Never again.

Finally, no one can say for sure what the market will do over the next couple years. Maybe it continues doing well this year and then after a war starts with the Taliban, the stock market (and then housing market) sees a down swing.

Who knows? 



Did you just buy or something and that's why you're coming at me this way?

 

[dkp993]

1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:
I am not sure you really answered the question.

Run some numbers for me from now until your next home purchase.  I am trying to figure out how selling now to rent ends up being a money maker.  What needs to happen for this to be a wise financial move?

I see two major expenses, the cost to sell a house and whatever rent is paid.  How is that money recouped and then some?

I am serious, not trying to be a D

If you have other reasons that are not financial that could obviously factor in, I realize that.
Expand  

Very odd take...

Like I said, not trying to time the market perfectly. We were up quite a bit and decided to get out. Also, we knew that over the next 3 or 5 years, we would most likely incur some larger house expenses (AC unit is about 10 years old, well water system is getting up there, etc.). And speaking of well water, we hate it. Never again.

Finally, no one can say for sure what the market will do over the next couple years. Maybe it continues doing well this year and then after a war starts with the Taliban, the stock market (and then housing market) sees a down swing.

Who knows? 



Did you just buy or something and that's why you're coming at me this way?

I’ll provide another perspective of why one would do this (speaking from first hand experience)…..

Bar none my biggest financial regret involved my first home purchase.  I lost said home due to the housing market collapse in 08.  1 year prior I refinanced that home, at that time I had a substantial amount of equity based on the current, at the time, appraisal.  I had a choice to refi for that value (you could do 100% cash out refi’s back then) or play it safe/smart and go 80%.  I was very very close to going the 100% route and parking that money in the bank.  I didn’t.  A year later I lost that home and was wiped out.  Had I gone the other route I still would have lost the home (likely by choice at that point) but walked with a very solid 6 figures in the bank in my mid 20’s. It was a life changing event.  Sooo…

Fast forward to this year. Had good equity in my home prior to this run up, but after had outstanding equity.  While I don’t believe this is a bubble and things are very different I still don’t want to re-live the past.   I ultimately choose to level up and use said equity and record low interest rates to buy our “forever” home but had we not chosen that path @eoMMan’s path was seriously considered.   

 

[ghostguy123]

Very odd take...

Like I said, not trying to time the market perfectly. We were up quite a bit and decided to get out. Also, we knew that over the next 3 or 5 years, we would most likely incur some larger house expenses (AC unit is about 10 years old, well water system is getting up there, etc.). And speaking of well water, we hate it. Never again.

Finally, no one can say for sure what the market will do over the next couple years. Maybe it continues doing well this year and then after a war starts with the Taliban, the stock market (and then housing market) sees a down swing.

Who knows? 



Did you just buy or something and that's why you're coming at me this way?

No I just sold one of my rental properties actually.

So I get that part of the reason for selling was so you dont incur some upcoming major expenses.  That makes sense and was not part of the original post about that.

 

[Capella]

2.5 years ago we bought our house for 166 a sq foot. Today our next door neighbor sold essentially the same house (neighborhood built at the same time) for 253 a sq foot. Told my wife to get some boxes and let’s get packing. 

 

[skol asylum]

Bought a short sale in 2010 for $260k. Refied a couple times and pulled some equity out, first to buy new AC system and paint exterior, second to pay off a whole.bunch of other debt, so our balance is closer to $280k. Last refi we also moved to a 15 at 2.5%. Zillow has us at $645k. First couple houses in our neighborhood have sold for over $700k. 

 

[The Z Machine]

Bought a short sale in 2010 for $260k. Refied a couple times and pulled some equity out, first to buy new AC system and paint exterior, second to pay off a whole.bunch of other debt, so our balance is closer to $280k. Last refi we also moved to a 15 at 2.5%. Zillow has us at $645k. First couple houses in our neighborhood have sold for over $700k. 

Whoa 

 

[ghostguy123]

2.5 years ago we bought our house for 166 a sq foot. Today our next door neighbor sold essentially the same house (neighborhood built at the same time) for 253 a sq foot. Told my wife to get some boxes and let’s get packing. 

Why?  To go buy another house with an inflated value?

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Why?  To go buy another house with an inflated value?

Well its mostly a lateral move, or upgrade if you have double equity like a lot of people do. Sell high = buy high. 

The way I see it, homeowners have 3 options

Sell high, pay off any debt, save money and rent for a couple of year and hope there is a downturn = Major upgrade. 

Stay put, upgrade your own stuff because you thing things will basically level off, no recession. = Lots-O-Equity, financial flexibility. It's possible that you missed out by not cashing in. 

As I said above, sell high, buy high. Basically a wash or upgrade - the risk is sure you can sell you house, but will you even be able to find another house?

 

[ghostguy123]

Well its mostly a lateral move, or upgrade if you have double equity like a lot of people do. Sell high = buy high. 

The way I see it, homeowners have 3 options

Sell high, pay off any debt, save money and rent for a couple of year and hope there is a downturn = Major upgrade. 

Stay put, upgrade your own stuff because you thing things will basically level off, no recession. = Lots-O-Equity, financial flexibility. It's possible that you missed out by not cashing in. 

As I said above, sell high, buy high. Basically a wash or upgrade - the risk is sure you can sell you house, but will you even be able to find another house?

We talked about this before.  If you sell with the idea of renting until there is a downturn, show me the numbers that make that work?  How much does the housing market need to tank to make up for selling fees and whatever extra you pay in rent above what you would have paid in the house while also factoring principal pay down. 

Someone did mention selling when they knew they would need to spend a bunch of money on stuff in the near future like a roof, heating cooling system.........With inventory so low even housing that needed lot of money spent on maintenance was still selling for top dollar.  

Lateral moves kinda suck right now cause you are paying inflated selling costs plus closing costs on a loan will be higher due to inflated selling costs.  

 

[Capella]

Why?  To go buy another house with an inflated value?

There’s not as much competition here for the next level up. I wouldn’t be getting a value, but I wouldn’t be in a bidding war either. 

 

[Desert_Power]

Well its mostly a lateral move, or upgrade if you have double equity like a lot of people do. Sell high = buy high. 

The way I see it, homeowners have 3 options

Sell high, pay off any debt, save money and rent for a couple of year and hope there is a downturn = Major upgrade. 

Stay put, upgrade your own stuff because you thing things will basically level off, no recession. = Lots-O-Equity, financial flexibility. It's possible that you missed out by not cashing in. 

As I said above, sell high, buy high. Basically a wash or upgrade - the risk is sure you can sell you house, but will you even be able to find another house?

Or sell in a high priced area and move to a cheaper one

 

[dkp993]

As I said above, sell high, buy high. Basically a wash or upgrade - the risk is sure you can sell you house, but will you even be able to find another house?

This is what I did (move in to the new home in 2 weeks!!!).  There was certainly a risk but no risk it no biscuit.  We left a home we were happy with but didn’t have things we wanted and couldn’t upgrade for a home that has everything we want and all with a locked in 2.7% rate.  Winning!

 

[dkp993]

There’s not as much competition here for the next level up. I wouldn’t be getting a value, but I wouldn’t be in a bidding war either. 

I will say be careful that this is actually true. I was convinced this would be true for us too, our agent was as well (she’s great and been doing it in our area for 20+ yrs). It absolutely wasn’t.  Every house was a war with 30+ bids.  

I’m not saying it won’t be true for you but just be careful and be prepared for battle just in case.  

 

[Birdie048]

Ever since Apple announced their new East Coast HQ location (Cary, NC - about 4 miles from my house), our housing market has exploded.  We have seen a steep jump in home sales going for 20-30% above listed price, and some are selling sight unseen by out of town buyers and investors.  Neighbors house went up last Friday listed $362,500 (bought it for $245K & they lived there 3 years).  It sold for $402K within 4 days.  

Now if I sell to get the equity, I would not be able to afford anything in this area!  I love the area and don't want to move but this is the harsh reality.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

My house is worth more than double what I owe on it. My "problem" is that I already live in a low-COL area - there's nowhere I can go (& still get paid what I'm used to) that wouldn't be more expensive, unless I bought a shack or lived in my vehicle.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Crazy how much things have changed.

I bought my house without seeing it in person in 2013.  Did a virtual video tour with our realtor.  Everyone I told that to was basically flabbergasted.  "How can you buy a house without seeing it in person?  That's insane."

Now in our market if you wait until you can get into the house to see it, it's already too late and it's already under contract.

 

[flapgreen]

2.5 years ago we bought our house for 166 a sq foot. Today our next door neighbor sold essentially the same house (neighborhood built at the same time) for 253 a sq foot. Told my wife to get some boxes and let’s get packing. 

Not too different than ours. We bought April '19 at 148 Sq foot and sold 2 months ago at 216 Sq foot. Nashville suburbs 

 

[Sand]

My house is worth more than double what I owe on it. My "problem" is that I already live in a low-COL area - there's nowhere I can go (& still get paid what I'm used to) that wouldn't be more expensive, unless I bought a shack or lived in my vehicle.

A house is a place to live first and an investment second.  I'm in the same spot and likely 2 years away from my last kid moving away.  Not sure what I'm going to do with 4200sq. ft. with two of us, but I'm in the same spot of living in a tent if I left.  There are worse problems.

 

[dkp993]

2.5 years ago we bought our house for 166 a sq foot. Today our next door neighbor sold essentially the same house (neighborhood built at the same time) for 253 a sq foot. Told my wife to get some boxes and let’s get packing. 

Not too different than ours. We bought April '19 at 148 Sq foot and sold 2 months ago at 216 Sq foot. Nashville suburbs 

Not to dissimilar to mine here in So-Cal.  Bought in sept of ‘17 for 216 sq foot, sold 2 months ago for 308 per.  

 

[BassNBrew]

That seems like it would entirely depend on where you will live afterwards.  If you need to buy, then it doesnt really matter either way 

If you are selling a rental property or something, personally I would say sell now

Or wait like I've been telling people for 3 years and profit.  My rentals are up 10-20% since this post.

The mental exhaustion is real, very very real.  We’re 6 weeks into our search and it’s taxing.  Continuing having to go up against 25 to 30 other bidders on something you’ve seen once for 15 mins is crazy.  Oh and it’s only the biggest financial decision of your (our) life to date.  We just lost out to one we really wanted, we were the second highest bid. The winning bid? They bid 5K on top of whatever the highest bid would be, blind.  They had no real clue what the top would be, and didn’t care. 

It’s so nuts we actually just blind bid a house that isn’t showing for 2 weeks and we went 75 over the list.  The agent says they already have 4 other offers and we aren’t the highest.  

This market is indescribable.  

Fortunately this would fly in many states.  If that's legal then it's probably legal to find another offer at 500k over list and scalp these folks for their due diligence money (if that's a thing in your state).

makes me happy to sell, rent a year and then figure it out... this bubble is going to burst ... partiuclarly when the economy turns into a dumpster fire

I know you sold for different reasons, but the economy rolls on and home prices roll with it.

Umm, I absolutely know what a bubble is.

Update?

The large increase in housing prices is good news for those who own a property or 2 or more. But not good for those of us who don't own, which includes many of our children. 

In much of Latin America, home ownership was always out of reach of a large percentage of the population. Now, home ownership is out of reach for many in developed countries such as Australia:

>>Australia’s runaway house prices are making the national economy less stable and lowering productivity, according to research which warns home ownership is now out of reach for anyone under the age of 35 as governments repeat failed policy fixes.

Special research led by UNSW finds the property market is now a “triple threat” to the nation’s economic future with the ongoing surge in prices creating economic instability, diverting money away from more productive pursuits and affecting the lending policies of the nation’s major banks...

"A system that raises housing costs for all Australians, that raises instability and lowers productivity does not serve the nation well,” said the researchers, headed by the university’s City Futures Research Centre’s Duncan Maclennan and Hal Pawson.

“And as for rising housing wealth, it is not like the wealth created from effort and innovation, for that creates gains for all. Rather, it makes some Australians, the affluent and older, better off by making younger and poorer Australians, and also future buyers, worse off.”

House prices globally have accelerated since the middle of last year as government stimulus and record low interest rates have been funnelled into property markets. Melbourne’s median house price has reached $908,000 while in Sydney, it is $1.2 million.<<

Interesting post and I appreciate the insight.  Hard to reconcile how much land is available and why the free market doesn't step in and create supply to remedy this.  I realize it's not an overnight solution but homebuilders in the US are stepping in to somewhat slow the insane price acceleration.  

Someone mentioned changing building materials earlier.  Check out this https://www.dcbuilding.com/barns-with-living-quarters/barndominiums/

 

[Captain Cranks]

I thought things were slowing down here in the Tampa area, but two homes in my neighborhood that recently closed went for $60K and $25K above asking.  

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Update?

Yep.  Still in a bubble.  Now would be a horrible time to buy.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

A house is a place to live first and an investment second.  I'm in the same spot and likely 2 years away from my last kid moving away.  Not sure what I'm going to do with 4200sq. ft. with two of us, but I'm in the same spot of living in a tent if I left.  There are worse problems.

I already downsized when I bought the place I'm in now. It's a basic 1,200 sq ft 3/2 rancher with an unfinished basement on 1/3 acre. I live by myself, so I could do with about 1/2 the square footage I have now and honestly not miss a beat. 

I'm just going to sit tight for now. I'm 59 and plan on working until I'm 70 if I can. 

 

[Captain Cranks]

Yep.  Still in a bubble.  Now would be a horrible time to buy.

Let's say I give you and your friends 10 marbles each which you can use to buy pieces of candy at an auction.  Assuming there's 3 friends and 6 pieces of candy, the auction should net an average of 5 marbles per candy (3 x 10 / 6 = 5).  Now instead of 10 marbles, I give you and your friends 20 marbles for the auction.  Now the candy should auction for an average of 10 marbles.  Would you say that the candy is in a bubble because there are more marbles to go around?  

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Let's say I give you and your friends 10 marbles each which you can use to buy pieces of candy at an auction.  Assuming there's 3 friends and 6 pieces of candy, the auction should net an average of 5 marbles per candy (3 x 10 / 6 = 5).  Now instead of 10 marbles, I give you and your friends 20 marbles for the auction.  Now the candy should auction for an average of 10 marbles.  Would you say that the candy is in a bubble because there are more marbles to go around?  

Depends on whether we will keep getting 10 marbles every week/month/year (whatever timeframe you are talking about in this terrible analogy), and whether there will only be 6 pieces of candy for perpetuity.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Depends on whether we will keep getting 10 marbles every week/month/year (whatever timeframe you are talking about in this terrible analogy), and whether there will only be 6 pieces of candy for perpetuity.

The government has and will continue to expand the money supply.  They're intentionally inflating asset prices.  Do you disagree with this?

 

[djmich]

Depends on whether we will keep getting 10 marbles every week/month/year (whatever timeframe you are talking about in this terrible analogy), and whether there will only be 6 pieces of candy for perpetuity.

Wouldn't the better question be if the marbles 10 additional marbles are going to be taken away?  Adding more marbles only would accelerate the marbles/candy.

Depends I guess on what you think is driving the marble increase...covid checks or Fed printing (I know, related).  It's all staying in the money supply, but yes the checks may eventually stop.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

The government has and will continue to expand the money supply.  They're intentionally inflating asset prices.  Do you disagree with this?

I don’t disagree.  It wouldn’t shock me to see housing prices keep going up for awhile.  Ultimately I don’t see it as sustainable, but understand why other folks might.

 

[Captain Cranks]

I don’t disagree.  It wouldn’t shock me to see housing prices keep going up for awhile.  Ultimately I don’t see it as sustainable, but understand why other folks might.

You'll probably be right eventually.  I've just learned since the housing crisis in 2009 not to bet against the government's (not just ours, but around the world) capacity and willingness to keep asset prices elevated by flooding the economy with stimulus.   

 

[Alex P Keaton]

You'll probably be right eventually.  I've just learned since the housing crisis in 2009 not to bet against the government's (not just ours, but around the world) capacity and willingness to keep asset prices elevated by flooding the economy with stimulus.   

Sure.  Fair.  Our govt has proven the willingness to blow taxpayer money to incorrectly prop up asset prices.