I am not comparaing Alexander and Lamont, that is just ridiculous and completely pointless.
I am talking about Lamont's vaue next year and debating those who think he is a 2nd round pick and top 15 back next year for sure. I am debating those that are predicting greatness for a backup RB who is coming into his first year ever to have a starting role for the worst rushing team in the lague last year.
My personal opinion is that he falls in the 21-25 range for RBs this upcoming year. Yes he does have the starting job, but he still plays for the Raiders one of the worst teams in football at this point in time. The addition of Moss and Jordan will not make a huge impact on this cause they needed to improve on defense to make headway, not offense.
Explanation on Lamont Jordan's projection.
1. Addition of Moss. Good and bad. It will allow the Raiders to stay on the field longer but it means Lamont will never be the focal point of their offense. Moss and Porter will get their touches. Everyone says that they will do wonders for a run game and keep the defense real, but Moss and Porter didn't sign major deals just to be decoys either, they will get alot of touches.
2. O-line. This O-line was a largely responsible for being the worst ranked rushing offesne in the league last year. RBs or not, if a team has a medicore O-line, they will run the ball and many RBs can do well enough to be productive for the team. I understand that the lack of RB may have hurt them them last year as well, but the O-line was a major contributor. If you look at rushing stats, a common line in the rankings is the strength of the O-line. The Raiders were dead last and that says something about their O-line.
3. Team as a Whole. The Raiders had a terrible defense last year and it has only gotten worse thus far with the offseason. Losing their starting LB and most likely Woodson. The Raiders have 9 wins in their last two seasons after going to the Superbowl and bad teams generally do not have good fantasy RBs.
RBs ranked in the Top 15 from teams who do not win 6 games all season. The Raiders have not won 6 games in their past two seasons.
2004- NONE
2003- Tomlinson, Taylor
2002- NONE
2001 - Tomlinson
2000 - NONE
3 RBs have done it in the last 5 years, that isn't very good news for Lamont.
4. Competition. This year there will be alot of good backs to choose from. It seems that there is a decrease in RBBC compared to a few years ago which means there is that many more RBs who will do well and more competition for Lamont to finish in the top 15.
I am not a Lamont Jordan hater, but I look at the full scenario before shouting "Lamont will be top 15 back" when he is acquired by the Raiders. I agree that he will have opportunity, but opportunity simply does not mean a RB will be productive.
I really don't think most of the arguments you have made here are logical. 1. Anyone who thinks that the addition of the most talented WR in the league will not help a RB, does not know football. When you get an impact player on offense, it doesn't mean that they will get a larger piece of the pie than others. The pie gets larger, which means more opportunity for all players. Norv will send Moss and Porter down the field, and the defense will be forced to use both safeties in coverage. Besides, LaMont WILL be the first option, not Moss. Norv has always been a run first coach when his personnel allows it.
2. Oakland's line is not nearly as bad as you think. Their draft picks played solid football last year, and will only improve. Oakland's O-line is clearly a run blocking line, and they did not get to do much of that last year. The running game was not ineffective due to the line itself, it was because Oakland was always behind, and had nothing more than a committee of mediocre RBs. If you were their head coach, and had their backfield from last year, wouldn't you throw every down too?
3. I actually think the fact that they have a poor defense may even help Lamont. Due to their explosive offense, they will never be far behind, despite letting the other team score a lot of points. Lamont will be carrying the ball with frequency, as long as Oakland still has a chance in the game. Another factor you don't seem to grasp is that Jordan is also an excellent receiver. Even if they are behind, he will be on the field for their 2 minute drill. Lastly, the poorer a team's defense, the more they want to keep their offense on the field. This translates to more time of possession, and more carries for Lamont.
4. I also disagree with this. I don't see any significant increase in RBs that are not sharing the load. Please show me some info that backs up this point.
All in all, if these are your main arguments, they hold no weight in my opinion.
The bottom line is that even if I thought Lamont was not a talented back, his situation alone warrants top 15 consideration. I think he is a very solid pick in the second round of a redraft league. When I look at RB, I think that a RB's floor (statistically speaking) is just as important as his ceiling. This is why I love Jordan. Norv loves to run the ball when he has a horse, and I think Jordan is a lock for 400 touches. With that many touches, I think a Jordan is a very safe bet to be in the top 15, with the potential for much higher.
By the way, you are DEFINITELY a LaMont hater...