If game tape doesn't lie... (1 Viewer)

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

In one of my leagues SJ, KJ and JJ were picked 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 in 2004 - none living up to that yet.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I assume that's rookie, correct? If so I'd say they lived up to it, insofar as they are probably the top 3 picks from that class in new dynasty leagues (and in that order).

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

This is a guy with AMAZING feet for his size.  Ala Bettis when he was coming out.  That is not to say he is a sure thing to repeat the feets that Bettis did at the NFL level.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Excellent unintentional pun!

 

[Riffraff]

I put my proverbial money where my mouth is.

I took White at 1.03 over Williams and Addai in a 14 team dynasty league.

No, I couldn't really trade down.

At 1.05 was the resident USC alumnus.

Top 7 picks were all RBs.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

In one of my leagues SJ, KJ and JJ were picked 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 in 2004 - none living up to that yet.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I assume that's rookie, correct? If so I'd say they lived up to it, insofar as they are probably the top 3 picks from that class in new dynasty leagues (and in that order).
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Jackson is a top 5-7 RB right now in dynasty leagues and he's only been in the league 2 years. How in the convoluted world is that not living up to the pick?

 

[EBF]

I'm not interested in starting a debate over Lendale's talent.  There is no doubt the guy was a monster in college.  Heck, practically every player drafted in the first three rounds of every NFL draft was a monster in college.

I'm simply wondering if Lendale's fall into the mid-2nd is a signal of future success in the NFL.  If you review the list of RB's drafted in the 2nd-round over the past five years, the "hit rate" is not very impressive.

Anthony Thomas ('01)

LaMont Jordan ('01)

Travis Henry ('01)

DeShaun Foster ('02)

Clinton Portis ('02)

Ladell Betts ('02)

Tatum Bell ('04)

Julis Jones ('04)

Greg Jones ('04)

JJ Arrington ('05)

Eric Shelton ('05)

To be frank, only Clinton Portis and Julius Jones have performed in-line with their probable initial draft position in most FF drafts.  A case may now be made for LaMont Jordan, but I highly doubt most initial owners chose to keep Jordan on their roster through his 1,277 yards rushing in his first four seasons.  Other than Portis' success, A-Train had nearly 3k yards his first three seasons, but he's probably now UFA material in most leagues.  Same-case scenario with Travis Henry.  To be kind, I'll combine the three "1/2's" of Jordan/A-Train/Henry and give the 2nd-rounders over the past five years a 32% success rate (3.5 out of 11).

Now...let's look at the 1st-rounders over the same five-year period.

LT ('01)

Deuce McAllister ('01)

Michael Bennett ('01)

William Green ('02)

TJ Duckett ('02)

Willis McGahee ('03)

Larry Johnson ('03)

Steven Jackson ('04)

Kevin Jones ('04)

Chris Perry ('04)

Ronnie Brown ('05)

Cadillac Williams ('05)

Cedric Benson ('05)

Of the 13 players listed above, it's safe to say only Bennett, Green, Duckett, Perry and Benson have not performed with their initial draft position.  We're looking at a 62% "hit" rate with the 1st-round RB's over the past five years.

1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

Maroney 

D Williams 

Addai 

White 

M Drew 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd caution against relying too heavily on this sort of thinking. Obviously first round picks are typically going to have a higher success rate than second round picks. That doesn't mean a particular second round pick is destined to fail. These guys were all chosen after round one:

Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis, LaMont Jordan, Ahman Green, Curtis Martin, Julius Jones, Domanick Davis, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, and many more

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about White. Keep in mind that he's the only back other than Bush who was ever seriously considered a possibility for the top ten. When you factor in the character concerns and the hamstring injury, I think it's actually pretty impressive that he went as high as he did.

I really liked White during the season and I think his game is tailor-made for the NFL. He lacks great quickness or burst, but he has very quick feet for such a big man and is blessed with great vision. Most Pac-10 observers expect him to become a very good pro.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!

 

[jurb26]

This is a guy with AMAZING feet for his size.  Ala Bettis when he was coming out.  That is not to say he is a sure thing to repeat the feets that Bettis did at the NFL level.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Excellent unintentional pun!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Who says it was unitentional?

 

[Christo]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?

 

[jurb26]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?

 

[Christo]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?

 

[jurb26]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.

 

[Weiner Dog]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm assuming you missed (...or chose to ignore) the following part of my statement......defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone. This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

 

[Christo]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?

 

[jurb26]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're just trying to be difficult now.

 

[Christo]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're just trying to be difficult now.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Believe me, I wasn't having to try very hard.BTW, you didn't answer that last question.

 

[jurb26]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're just trying to be difficult now.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Believe me, I wasn't having to try very hard.BTW, you didn't answer that last question.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look at the link I put up earlier and then look at Reggie Bush. There is a reason that people call him an once every 20 yrs RB. Averaging almost 9, thats NINE, yds per carry at any level especially D1 football is outstanding and almost unbelievable. He dwarfed EVERYONE in the nation last year. Even players like Maroney who arguably had the best run blocking Oline in the country. Guys like Williams who were running vs far inferior competition. White still managed the 2nd best YPA of all rushers in the top 50 in the NCAA. This was dispite the fact that he more than likely got far greater % of his carries in GL and short yardage situations. Plan and simple, comparing Bush to White or any RB simply is not fair. We are talking about a guy that is considered the next Sayers/Sanders/Faulk/Payton. Reggie was the most explosive and dominant player in college football. HE won the Heisman and is graded as highly by NFL scouts for a reason. I don't really see how you are doing anything other than fishing by trying to compare White and him. He really can't be compared to anyone from this RB class or maybe even the last 10 classes. This is not even getting into the vast differences in the skill sets of the 2 guys either. I didn't repsond to your question because I assumed this was common knowledge and you were just trying to be difficult. I mean seriously, do I need to tell you just how good Bush was in college last year, just how great of a NFL prospect this guy is? I thought this had been beat to death already in 1000 other threads.

 

[Riffraff]

You two need to get a room.

(And learn how to only quote the last thing said, not the entire overblown conversation)

 

[jurb26]

You two need to get a room.

(And learn how to only quote the last thing said, not the entire overblown conversation)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is a room and it's one dedicated to discussing LenDale White. Which we are doing. Why read it if you don't want to hear about him.

 

[Riffraff]

1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

Maroney 

D Williams 

Addai 

White 

M Drew 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mental note on using these stats:1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

62% would be between 50% (2 of 4) and 75% (3 of 4)... so that means there is a high potential for two of Bush, Maroney, Williams, and Addai to bust.

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

32% is roughly 1 of 3.

White and Drew were the only two RBs taken in the 2nd round, thus the average would go up to 50% if one of the two performs well.

So this year, both the 1st and the 2nd rounds may have 50% busts at the position. Even odds on either round.

I think you may have been counter productive on your arguement.

 

[Weiner Dog]

1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

Maroney 

D Williams 

Addai 

White 

M Drew 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mental note on using these stats:1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

62% would be between 50% (2 of 4) and 75% (3 of 4)... so that means there is a high potential for two of Bush, Maroney, Williams, and Addai to bust.

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

32% is roughly 1 of 3.

White and Drew were the only two RBs taken in the 2nd round, thus the average would go up to 50% if one of the two performs well.

So this year, both the 1st and the 2nd rounds may have 50% busts at the position. Even odds on either round.

I think you may have been counter productive on your arguement.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please tell me (...and reassure the rest of the world) that you do not work in an industry which involves numbers and statistics.

 

[Riffraff]

Please tell me (...and reassure the rest of the world) that you do not work in an industry which involves numbers and statistics.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No worries, I am not in the industry.Also of note is that your sampling size is too small and you have no margin of error. You seemed to use years that support your claim. You'd do well in advertising (4 out of 5 dentists agree that _____ toothpaste is good to use on your teeth), but bad for research. There is no area under the curve to find here.

The topic is about Lendale White.

If you chose to do a study, perhaps you'd use all the draft era RBs selected in the 2nd round. Part of your margin of error would utilize injuries and players not given the chance to perform. 1st rounders obviously would be given more opportunities than 2nd rounders.

If you came away with just a simple stat such as "1 second round RB has performed well every year since the draft era began," you'd pump Lendale's value way up since there are only 2 RBs from the second round this year.

Stats can be used from every angle to support which ever point of view you want to exploit.

You can reply, but I won't respond further since we can just take this to private messages and spare the masses the drivel.

 

[Christo]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're just trying to be difficult now.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Believe me, I wasn't having to try very hard.BTW, you didn't answer that last question.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look at the link I put up earlier and then look at Reggie Bush. There is a reason that people call him an once every 20 yrs RB. Averaging almost 9, thats NINE, yds per carry at any level especially D1 football is outstanding and almost unbelievable. He dwarfed EVERYONE in the nation last year. Even players like Maroney who arguably had the best run blocking Oline in the country. Guys like Williams who were running vs far inferior competition. White still managed the 2nd best YPA of all rushers in the top 50 in the NCAA. This was dispite the fact that he more than likely got far greater % of his carries in GL and short yardage situations. Plan and simple, comparing Bush to White or any RB simply is not fair. We are talking about a guy that is considered the next Sayers/Sanders/Faulk/Payton. Reggie was the most explosive and dominant player in college football. HE won the Heisman and is graded as highly by NFL scouts for a reason. I don't really see how you are doing anything other than fishing by trying to compare White and him. He really can't be compared to anyone from this RB class or maybe even the last 10 classes. This is not even getting into the vast differences in the skill sets of the 2 guys either. I didn't repsond to your question because I assumed this was common knowledge and you were just trying to be difficult. I mean seriously, do I need to tell you just how good Bush was in college last year, just how great of a NFL prospect this guy is? I thought this had been beat to death already in 1000 other threads.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't help it if you don't like the comparison, but like you have clearly admitted, these are the only two RBs we can compare in this manner. Everything else is just guesswork. I honestly don't know why you . . yes, you have made such a big deal about this. Weiner Dog made a completely benign statement that he was surprised to see that, behind the same O-line, the difference between Bush's and White's YPC was so great. He allowed for the fact that White was in the game on short yardage plays but he was still attacked for even making the point. I made an observation that a short yardage play didn't necessarily mean that the RB could only pick up a few yards - I think we've all seen short yardage plays in the middle of the field turn into long TD runs. But instead of admitting that maybe there was some validity to the point you . . yes you turned it into a pissing contest.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Please tell me (...and reassure the rest of the world) that you do not work in an industry which involves numbers and statistics.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No worries, I am not in the industry.Also of note is that your sampling size is too small and you have no margin of error. You seemed to use years that support your claim. You'd do well in advertising (4 out of 5 dentists agree that _____ toothpaste is good to use on your teeth), but bad for research. There is no area under the curve to find here.

The topic is about Lendale White.

If you chose to do a study, perhaps you'd use all the draft era RBs selected in the 2nd round. Part of your margin of error would utilize injuries and players not given the chance to perform. 1st rounders obviously would be given more opportunities than 2nd rounders.

If you came away with just a simple stat such as "1 second round RB has performed well every year since the draft era began," you'd pump Lendale's value way up since there are only 2 RBs from the second round this year.

Stats can be used from every angle to support which ever point of view you want to exploit.

You can reply, but I won't respond further since we can just take this to private messages and spare the masses the drivel.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sample size too small?? OK. Used years that support my claim?? OK.Here are the 1st and 2nd-round RB's for the five-year period from '96-'00 ( * for a "hit"):

1st-round

Lawrence Phillips ('96)

* Eddie George ('96)

* Warrick Dunn ('97)

Antowain Smith ('97)

* Fred Taylor ('98)

Robert Edwards ('98)

John Avery ('98)

* Ricky Williams ('99)

* Edgerrin James ('99)

Thomas Jones ('00)

* Shaun Alexander ('00)

Trung Candidate ('00)

Thomas Jones is still running strong but has not lived-up to his original draft billing. Antowain Smith had a few solid season but is no where close to being a "hit".

1st-rounders from '96-'00 = 6 for 13 (46% clip)

2nd-round

Leeland ('96)

McElroy ('96)

* C Dillon ('97)

* T Barber ('97)

Bryon Hanspard ('97)

James Jackson ('00)

Kevin Faulk ('00)

Joe Montgomery ('00)

Michael Cloud ('00)

Jermaine Fazande ('00)

2nd-rounders from '96-'00 = 2 for 10 (20% clip)

Please don't make me go back to the Revolutionary War.

 

[EBF]

I'm still not entirely sure what the point of this thread is.

Not all second round picks succeed. We already knew this.

First round picks typically succeed at a higher rate than second round picks. We already knew this.

What's your point?

White fell in the draft. Maybe he'll succeed. Maybe he won't. Using past data is helpful, but it's not definitive proof to conclude that he will or won't succeed. Every case is unique. If you automatically brush off every non-first round RB then you're going to miss out on a lot of good players.

As far as White goes, I don't think he's exactly your average second round pick. Guys like Arrington and Shelton were lucky to sneak into the second round. Even Tatum Bell and Julius Jones were never considered serious first round possibilities. About the only recent second round RB who had similar hype to White was DeShaun Foster. He's been pretty effective when healthy. I expect the same from White.

 

[Pnishthm]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, but White has several that did.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're just trying to be difficult now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Believe me, I wasn't having to try very hard.

BTW, you didn't answer that last question.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look at the link I put up earlier and then look at Reggie Bush. There is a reason that people call him an once every 20 yrs RB. Averaging almost 9, thats NINE, yds per carry at any level especially D1 football is outstanding and almost unbelievable. He dwarfed EVERYONE in the nation last year. Even players like Maroney who arguably had the best run blocking Oline in the country. Guys like Williams who were running vs far inferior competition. White still managed the 2nd best YPA of all rushers in the top 50 in the NCAA. This was dispite the fact that he more than likely got far greater % of his carries in GL and short yardage situations. Plan and simple, comparing Bush to White or any RB simply is not fair. We are talking about a guy that is considered the next Sayers/Sanders/Faulk/Payton. Reggie was the most explosive and dominant player in college football. HE won the Heisman and is graded as highly by NFL scouts for a reason. I don't really see how you are doing anything other than fishing by trying to compare White and him. He really can't be compared to anyone from this RB class or maybe even the last 10 classes. This is not even getting into the vast differences in the skill sets of the 2 guys either. I didn't repsond to your question because I assumed this was common knowledge and you were just trying to be difficult. I mean seriously, do I need to tell you just how good Bush was in college last year, just how great of a NFL prospect this guy is? I thought this had been beat to death already in 1000 other threads.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't help it if you don't like the comparison, but like you have clearly admitted, these are the only two RBs we can compare in this manner. Everything else is just guesswork. I honestly don't know why you . . yes, you have made such a big deal about this. Weiner Dog made a completely benign statement that he was surprised to see that, behind the same O-line, the difference between Bush's and White's YPC was so great. He allowed for the fact that White was in the game on short yardage plays but he was still attacked for even making the point. I made an observation that a short yardage play didn't necessarily mean that the RB could only pick up a few yards - I think we've all seen short yardage plays in the middle of the field turn into long TD runs. But instead of admitting that maybe there was some validity to the point you . . yes you turned it into a pissing contest.

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My vote goes to jurb26 for pissing the farthest.

 

[jurb26]

I can't help it if you don't like the comparison, but like you have clearly admitted, these are the only two RBs we can compare in this manner.  Everything else is just guesswork.  I honestly don't know why you . . yes, you have made such a big deal about this.  Weiner Dog made a completely benign statement that he was surprised to see that, behind the same O-line, the difference between Bush's and White's YPC was so great.  He allowed for the fact that White was in the game on short yardage plays but he was still attacked for even making the point.  I made an observation that a short yardage play didn't necessarily mean that the RB could only pick up a few yards - I think we've all seen short yardage plays in the middle of the field turn into long TD runs.  But instead of admitting that maybe there was some validity to the point you . . yes you turned it into a pissing contest.

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[Bob_Magaw]

i liked riffraffs idea... at least that is how i interpreted it...

often times RBs last to second round as they aren't as good... that is why they lasted... given this, they are less likely to have opportunity to crack starting lineup, & get relegated to backup-dom...

it would be more interesting to look at those RBs that were given a chance to start within, say the first year... it might not be a real big sample group... portis obviously did well, A-Train not so much after initial success...

this way, if white DOES crack the starting lineup, it would be intersting to see if tne success to bust ratio looks when we compare not from first to second round... but second rounders that start first year... vs second rounders that DON'T start first year (or we could set the parameter for study to starting within first two years...

i still contend that white was first round talent that dropped due to blown out of proportion concerns...

heath miller fell almost out of first, & in retrospect that was probably a mistake... it has been reported that PIT would have snared white if they hadn't been able to trade up for holmes... which would have made him a first rounder, albeit barely...

 

[rabidfireweasel]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

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I think it is awesome that you feel you are being insightful while knocking a back that was used in most short yardage situations and averaged 6.7 YPC. Brilliant!
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So RBs don't break-off long runs on short yardage situations?
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When the GL is only a yd away... how are they supposed too?
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So all short yardage situations occur at the goal line?
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No, but White has several that did.
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So those "several" goalline carries were the only reason White averaged 2.2 ypc less than Bush?
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Bush had a higher ypc because he was a better college back. No one can deny that. However, there is some goofy math going on here. White got all the carries inside the 5. I have no idea how many times he was stopped on short yardage or goalline situations. If you remember back to the Texas game, Bush is sometimes pulled off the field in those situations. I do know he scored 15 touchdowns on carries of 4 or less yards. On those td's he gained 29 yards. If you take away those carries and those yards he averages 7 ypc. If you give those carries to Bush, his ypc dips to 8.2. At any rate, I think it is hysterical to criticize a guy who is a short yardage back and runs for 24 tds because he "only" rushes for 6.7 ypc. Again, brilliant.

 

[jurb26]

heath miller fell almost out of first, & in retrospect that was probably a mistake... it has been reported that PIT would have snared white if they hadn't been able to trade up for holmes... which would have made him a first rounder, albeit barely...

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Just think, if Pitt hadn't wsated it's time moving up in the 1st for Holmes, a guy who would hav been there 7 picks later anyway, they could have used those picks to trade up in the 2nd to get both Homes and White! &