Indy's Manning vs. Luck Decision (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

This is a spinoff of a discussion that began in the Manning can't throw to his left thread.

For purposes of this poll, I don't want to consider other options, like the Colts letting Manning walk and drafting Griffin or otherwise acquiring a different QB.

Bracie brought this up in the other thread, and his perspective is illustrated here:

The decision of the Colts was based on two things. One was a lack of faith in Peyton Manning's health, both short term and long term. Two, their belief in Andrew Luck.

I have stated the decision isn't either/or Luck/Manning because its not. I saw the decision as the short-term return on Manning PLUS the long-term return on trading away the rights to Luck VS NOTHING for Peyton and Andrew Luck.

One side = ZERO from Peyton Manning + Andrew Luck

Other side = Peyton Manning (any play nearing equal to his historic high level of play) + the draft picks from dealing the rights to Andrew Luck and we know for cetain what was on the table:

- 4th pick used to select RB Trent Richardson

- 22nd pick used to select QB Brandon Weeden

- 37th pick used to select ORT Mitchell Schwartz

All of the above, including Luck, have played well.

So on one side is: QB Andrew Luck

On the other side: Peyton Manning, Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden, Mitchell Schwartz PLUS Cleveland's first round pick in 2013

I have stated I would have made the deal back in February to trade the rights to Luck long before Peyton Manning made his successful comeback and I'd definitely still make the deal today.

I think Indy would be at least two wins better right now and right in the thick of things for the AFC playoffs. Also the Colts would be sitting on two first round picks next year if they didn't use a pick to get a QB to sit and groom behind Peyton.

I guess I'm say'n I never would have let Peyton go. Peyton Manning was thee Indiapolis Colts so the PR hit was probably huge for most Colt fans. It wasn't just the PR hit I just felt Peyton would come back and saw an opportunity to make a killer draft deal to set up the Colts for long-term success while they still would be in position to win-it-all this year.

My view is that the Colts made the right decision, especially given the results so far. Here are a couple of my posts on this from the other thread:

I don't think there has ever really been a situation like the one the Colts faced this year. For the record, I think they did the right thing, and I think it was an absolute nobrainer. And early returns more than justify their decision. Luck is an All Pro caliber QB who could be starting for the Colts for the next 15 years or so... meanwhile, they are paying him much less than they would be paying Manning, and their record is likely about the same as it would be with Manning. There is literally no downside, but plenty of upside.

What other NFL teams can legitimately believe they have an All Pro caliber QB already in place for the next 10+ years? IMO there is only one other team who might justifiably think that - Washington.

You are ignoring the money part of it. Denver is paying Manning ~$20M per year. Indy is paying Luck ~$5.5M per year.

But even setting that aside, I'd take Luck over Manning, Richardson, Weeden, Schwartz, and another 1st rounder without hesitation. It's hard to put a price on getting an All Pro caliber QB for 15 years.

Imagine if a similar scenario faced the Colts when Manning came out, and they traded him to another team and ended up missing out on the career he had in Indy for a few years of a top veteran HOF QB, a great RB, and a couple other really good players. It would not have been worth it, unless one or more of the players other than the HOF QB were also future HOFers.

I thought this deserved its own topic and poll. What say you?

 

[pizzatyme]

As a Colts fan and season ticket holder, I understand why they did it as a business, but I would rather have had Manning finish his career here. He has made Irsay many riches. He has put this city on the map. He delivered Indy a Superbowl. Most importantly, Manning wanted to finish his career here and retire a Colt. He deserved that.

Season ticket holder have voiced their opinion. The Colts struggle to sell out. Sure they will come back eventually. But this fan base was built by the success Manning brought.

The draft pick would have brought a wealth of riches.

As it is, I love what Luck brings as a player and person this far.

 

[Raider Nation]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[Chazzhawk]

The Colts were going no where this year with Manning, or with Luck. They did what they had to do.

 

[drummer]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[thehornet]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[joffer]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[Nucker101]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Given the information they had at the time, I understand their decision to move in a new direction.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

win/win for both teams involved.

 

[DocHolliday]

win/win for both teams involved.

It has worked out well for all involved. The Colts were not expected to make the playoffs this year with Manning so they have started to rebuild. Luck is playing well and looks to be like a solid QB for the future. Manning went to a good Denver team that should win the AFC W. Mannings gets into the playoffs. The Colts did the right thing. They found their QB of the future.

 

[Shutout]

Completely understand the move and think it was a rare "win/win" for everyone involved.

However, the one caveat I would take from this is I believe if Manning was in Indy, the Colts would have the same or better record as they do now and there would be a lot of media talk about the Colts and them being able to get into the playoffs in what is a wide-open AFC this year. That, obviously, would be very good for the Colts coffers and, truth be told, if there IS a scenario where the Manning-led Colts could face off with the Brady-led Patriots in the playoffs one more time, that would be good for the NFL and everyone involved.

 

[donkshow]

As a Colts fan and season ticket holder, I understand why they did it as a business, but I would rather have had Manning finish his career here. He has made Irsay many riches. He has put this city on the map. He delivered Indy a Superbowl. Most importantly, Manning wanted to finish his career here and retire a Colt. He deserved that. Season ticket holder have voiced their opinion. The Colts struggle to sell out. Sure they will come back eventually. But this fan base was built by the success Manning brought. The draft pick would have brought a wealth of riches. As it is, I love what Luck brings as a player and person this far.

As a Colts fan, and Manning is my favourite player, so obviously I wanted to see him retire a Colt. But I understand the decision and in the business aspect and the future of the franchise, it was the correct decision and the decision I thought they would/should make leading up to it. We let our franchise QB go, we drafted another franchise QB. The perfect storm.Now, this season we need to draft some D and not all offense like last year.

 

[DoubleG]

Given the information they had at the time, I understand their decision to move in a new direction.

Anyone suggesting that the Colts made the wrong decision several months ago is forgetting how much "doom and gloom" there was surrounding the issue of Manning's health, and is only trying to read back into the past with present knowledge. Even so, for the Colts in the long term, it still may have been the best course of action.

 

[Grimace59]

As a Colts fan and season ticket holder, I understand why they did it as a business, but I would rather have had Manning finish his career here. He has made Irsay many riches. He has put this city on the map. He delivered Indy a Superbowl. Most importantly, Manning wanted to finish his career here and retire a Colt. He deserved that.

Season ticket holder have voiced their opinion. The Colts struggle to sell out. Sure they will come back eventually. But this fan base was built by the success Manning brought.

The draft pick would have brought a wealth of riches.

As it is, I love what Luck brings as a player and person this far.

As a Colts fan, and Manning is my favourite player, so obviously I wanted to see him retire a Colt. But I understand the decision and in the business aspect and the future of the franchise, it was the correct decision and the decision I thought they would/should make leading up to it. We let our franchise QB go, we drafted another franchise QB. The perfect storm.

Now, this season we need to draft some D and not all offense like last year.

And this upcoming draft is the perfect one to do this

 

[domvin]

Not all Stud QBs get to finish with one team, and it's a combo of salary cap, age, and overall direction of the team.

Favre, Montana come to mind as not finishing with their respective teams, and at the time, they were high priced and AGING.

Can't run a business and be sentimental about it. Otherwise you will have nil chance at sustained success.

Why is that 99.9% of folks see that drafting Rodgers was the right thing to do and let Favre walk but not with Manning/Luck? I'd assume it's because not enough time has elapsed?

Let's say Indy kept Manning, and traded the pick for multiple picks. Indy's window would still be closing based upon overall team dynamics, and that was AGE.

Mathis, Wayne, Freeney, all getting up there. The O-Line was old, secondary decimated, Dallas Clark was let go.

The picks they would have acquired are still question marks? They are no sure things.

And while one could say the same thing about Luck, he was the best QB prospect since .....Manning.

Listening to Bill Polian on Sirius in April, pre draft, he said the Colts made the right decision based on the medical facts on Manning. Plus, they just paid him 20 miillion to sit on the sidelines for all of 2011. If you are Jim Irsay, you going to take that chance again, and stay committed to 100 million dollar contract. I couldn't do it....

Give me the new future of the franchise, and handle Mannings release with dignity and class(which was done on both sides)

 

[UKColt]

As a fan, it was a tough choice but the right one.

If we'd held onto Manning it would have been for sentimental reasons, rather than football ones. The smart football decision was to accept that we needed to rebuild, and drafting Luck gave us the most important piece of any organisation, a franchise QB for the next decade.

Also, it doesn't upset me that Manning left. He did more for the Colts than anyone in the entire history of the franchise. He's earned the right to have a last shot at a Superbowl, rather than seeing out his career on a side who weren't going to be able to match his abilities.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think they did the right thing, even in hindsight. Although it is interesting now, due to Manning's level of play.

Trade down from 3, pick up Claiborne or Tannehil, instead of Richardson. Pick up Martin, instead of Wheedon. Fun to think about.

But, again, as others have said, of course they did the right thing.

 

[Resident A]

If Indy had traded the #1 pick, they'd look a lot like the Rams, only with Peyton as their QB. And lets not forget that Peyton could be 1 major hit away from retirement. Just because he's stayed healthy for 7 games, doesn't mean he's his old indestructible self.

Despite getting the same haul Indy could've gotten, I think the Rams made a horrible decision to trade the #2 pick. There is no guarantee any of the draft picks will work out. The Rams are likely going to be mediocre at best over the next few years, and drafting RG3 (or Luck) would've made a major difference. If you can get a near sure-thing at QB, you take it, or spend the next 15 years regretting the decision.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He has put this city on the map. He delivered Indy a Superbowl. Most importantly, Manning wanted to finish his career here and retire a Colt. He deserved that.

My memory may be failing me here, but wasn't part of the decision to move on Peyton's as well? It seems like the perfect answer would have been to re-sign Peyton, draft Luck, and let "the next Peyton" learn behind the current Peyton. However, wasn't Manning pretty well against that and wanted them to dedicate themselves to him by using the pick on someone that would help them win now?

 

[Concept Coop]

If Indy had traded the #1 pick, they'd look a lot like the Rams, only with Peyton as their QB. And lets not forget that Peyton could be 1 major hit away from retirement. Just because he's stayed healthy for 7 games, doesn't mean he's his old indestructible self. Despite getting the same haul Indy could've gotten, I think the Rams made a horrible decision to trade the #2 pick. There is no guarantee any of the draft picks will work out. The Rams are likely going to be mediocre at best over the next few years, and drafting RG3 (or Luck) would've made a major difference. If you can get a near sure-thing at QB, you take it, or spend the next 15 years regretting the decision.

I think you underestimate the difference bewteen Manning and Bradford. The Rams with Manning are a playoff team. And the Rams don't have a #1 like Wayne. Just for fun, imagine how much better the Colts are if you replace:Luck FleenerwithManningClaiborneMartinJanoris JenkinsTamme1st1stYou get a short-term upgrade at QB, a shutdown corner, a very good corner, a franchise RB, Jacob Tamme, and 2x first rounders. Again, just for fun. In the read world, the Colts did the only logical thing to do.

 

[GregR]

Just food for thought... keeping Peyton would cost the Colts about $6.6m more in cap room than their 2012 dead money for him, which would put them about a million over the cap by itself. And you really don't want to go into the season with no cap room at all, as you need room to sign players to replace those you put on IR.

Luck's contract is about a half million a year more than Trent Richardson's. But if you throw in extra picks this year from a trade used to take players like Wheeden, he's making $8m on a 4 year contract for a $2m per year average. So at best, Luck's disappearing cap hit might pay for the rest of your acquired picks, but possibly not and it won't free up enough to fix the cap with Peyton's extra hit.

If you want to keep Dallas Clark to keep the band together as it were, that would have cost you another $1.7m on the cap compared to what he's costing them this year in dead money.

Do you retain Peyton but not Jeff Saturday? Saturday is getting paid about $4m this year by the Packers (not sure proration and cap hit).

So there are definitely some big cap considerations involved. It might not be as easy to re-sign Tamme, for instance, as people suggest. The Colts have $10.4m in dead money this year and next from cutting Peyton. But doing so is going to leave a lot of cash in 2012-2015 that can be spent other places compared to what Peyton's cap hit would have been. Save $6.6m this year, $7.6m next year, and then $19m and $20m through 2015.

 

[Tau837]

Just food for thought... keeping Peyton would cost the Colts about $6.6m more in cap room than their 2012 dead money for him, which would put them about a million over the cap by itself. And you really don't want to go into the season with no cap room at all, as you need room to sign players to replace those you put on IR.Luck's contract is about a half million a year more than Trent Richardson's. But if you throw in extra picks this year from a trade used to take players like Wheeden, he's making $8m on a 4 year contract for a $2m per year average. So at best, Luck's disappearing cap hit might pay for the rest of your acquired picks, but possibly not and it won't free up enough to fix the cap with Peyton's extra hit.If you want to keep Dallas Clark to keep the band together as it were, that would have cost you another $1.7m on the cap compared to what he's costing them this year in dead money. Do you retain Peyton but not Jeff Saturday? Saturday is getting paid about $4m this year by the Packers (not sure proration and cap hit).So there are definitely some big cap considerations involved. It might not be as easy to re-sign Tamme, for instance, as people suggest. The Colts have $10.4m in dead money this year and next from cutting Peyton. But doing so is going to leave a lot of cash in 2012-2015 that can be spent other places compared to what Peyton's cap hit would have been. Save $6.6m this year, $7.6m next year, and then $19m and $20m through 2015.

 

[Da Guru]

It was win..win for Manning and the Colts.

Manning is playing like Manning for Denver and the Colts have a new Manning for the next decade.

 

[Tau837]

Given what we know now, what should the Colts have done?Keep Manning and trade the #1 pick (12 votes [10.62%])Let Manning walk and draft Luck (101 votes [89.38%])

 

[BobbyLayne]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[Wadsworth]

Luck looks very good so far and as a Jags fan I am not happy about seeing Manning twice a season for what seemed like forever and now facing 10+ seasons of seeing Luck. But it is funny how perception plays in opinions about players.

Andrew Luck in 2012(age 23):

160/288 for 1,971, 55.6%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 74.6 rating

Blaine Gabbert in 2012(age 23):

115/207 for 1,209, 55.6%, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.9 rating

Luck has 81 more attempts, but other that the numbers are pretty similar. Yet Luck is seen as a star of the future and 90% of people think he is worth more than Manning and a whole lot of high round draft picks. Gabbert is seen as a bust and routinely called one of the worst QB in the League. Gabbert is actually a little younger than Luck.

If I had to pick I would pick Luck over Gabbert like almost everyone else. But there is not enough difference between the two to justify the amazingly different perceptions at this point in their careers.

 

[Ladsud]

Luck looks very good so far and as a Jags fan I am not happy about seeing Manning twice a season for what seemed like forever and now facing 10+ seasons of seeing Luck. But it is funny how perception plays in opinions about players.

Andrew Luck in 2012(age 23):

160/288 for 1,971, 55.6%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 74.6 rating

Blaine Gabbert in 2012(age 23):

115/207 for 1,209, 55.6%, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.9 rating

Luck has 81 more attempts, but other that the numbers are pretty similar. Yet Luck is seen as a star of the future and 90% of people think he is worth more than Manning and a whole lot of high round draft picks. Gabbert is seen as a bust and routinely called one of the worst QB in the League. Gabbert is actually a little younger than Luck.

If I had to pick I would pick Luck over Gabbert like almost everyone else. But there is not enough difference between the two to justify the amazingly different perceptions at this point in their careers.

Luck wins games, Gabbert doesnt. Winning games and converting 3rd downs changes perceptions.

 

[UKColt]

And Gabbert has a season more experience than Luck.

 

[Wadsworth]

And Gabbert has a season more experience than Luck.

Well that, and Luck just plain looks like a better QB. My point was not that Gabbbert was better or that they were equal. But that in spite of similar numbers, being the same age and Gabbert beating the Colts this season, the perception of the two QBs it extremely different.

 

[T J]

As a Colts fan and season ticket holder, I understand why they did it as a business, but I would rather have had Manning finish his career here. He has made Irsay many riches. He has put this city on the map. He delivered Indy a Superbowl. Most importantly, Manning wanted to finish his career here and retire a Colt. He deserved that. Season ticket holder have voiced their opinion. The Colts struggle to sell out. Sure they will come back eventually. But this fan base was built by the success Manning brought. The draft pick would have brought a wealth of riches. As it is, I love what Luck brings as a player and person this far.

I heard this then and hearing it again. I say this is BS. Manning deserved a paycheck and not a things more. Irsay made Manning many of millions so he should be thanking the Colta for the opportunity, not the other way around. I feel this way about all players. They deserve their paycheck and nothing else.

 

[jon_mx]

Luck looks very good so far and as a Jags fan I am not happy about seeing Manning twice a season for what seemed like forever and now facing 10+ seasons of seeing Luck. But it is funny how perception plays in opinions about players.

Andrew Luck in 2012(age 23):

160/288 for 1,971, 55.6%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 74.6 rating

Blaine Gabbert in 2012(age 23):

115/207 for 1,209, 55.6%, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.9 rating

Luck has 81 more attempts, but other that the numbers are pretty similar. Yet Luck is seen as a star of the future and 90% of people think he is worth more than Manning and a whole lot of high round draft picks. Gabbert is seen as a bust and routinely called one of the worst QB in the League. Gabbert is actually a little younger than Luck.

If I had to pick I would pick Luck over Gabbert like almost everyone else. But there is not enough difference between the two to justify the amazingly different perceptions at this point in their careers.

The Colts are more dependent on Luck. The stats are not that close, Luck has thrown for over 60 percent more yards. That is huge. He is a rookie and has thrown a few more interceptions, but Luck is clearly the better choice there.

 

[Popinski]

Luck looks very good so far and as a Jags fan I am not happy about seeing Manning twice a season for what seemed like forever and now facing 10+ seasons of seeing Luck. But it is funny how perception plays in opinions about players.

Andrew Luck in 2012(age 23):

160/288 for 1,971, 55.6%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 74.6 rating

Blaine Gabbert in 2012(age 23):

115/207 for 1,209, 55.6%, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.9 rating

Luck has 81 more attempts, but other that the numbers are pretty similar. Yet Luck is seen as a star of the future and 90% of people think he is worth more than Manning and a whole lot of high round draft picks. Gabbert is seen as a bust and routinely called one of the worst QB in the League. Gabbert is actually a little younger than Luck.

If I had to pick I would pick Luck over Gabbert like almost everyone else. But there is not enough difference between the two to justify the amazingly different perceptions at this point in their careers.

That's because perceptions aren't going to be based on such a small sample size, and rightfully so. Their college careers and their draft expectations still are factored in.

 

[glumpy]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

Ditto here, but after voting I read the arguments pro and con for the first time. I still think it was a no brainer given the long term view.

 

[MCguidance]

Didn't read anything in this thread or the other one. My answer is of course they did the right thing.

 

[meyerj31]

This is not even close. Luck is a more athletic Manning who will be at Manning's level of controlling the line of scrimmage in a year or two, and have 10-15 years in the league more to play. I don't understand how any can vote against that.

There is only one reason the Colts are winning right now, and that's Luck. That game winning drive against the Packers was the nuts (and I'm a Packers fan).

 

[SSOG]

This is not even close. Luck is a more athletic Manning who will be at Manning's level of controlling the line of scrimmage in a year or two, and have 10-15 years in the league more to play. I don't understand how any can vote against that.

There is only one reason the Colts are winning right now, and that's Luck. That game winning drive against the Packers was the nuts (and I'm a Packers fan).

Yeah... that's not the teensiest, tiniest bit possible in the land of reality. I would give it a negative twenty percent chance of coming true.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Right now, both teams are 4-3. Based on Manning's play, people seem to think the Broncos are Super Bowl contenders. I don't see it. They play in a cupcake division and Manning is surely still playing at a high level...but I can't imagine the Colts would do anything different if they could re-do it knowing what they know now.

Luck is a franchise QB. Manning was a franchise QB. If the NFL was a redraft league, we'd have a different discussion. But it's not.

 

[We Tigers]

Luck looks very good so far and as a Jags fan I am not happy about seeing Manning twice a season for what seemed like forever and now facing 10+ seasons of seeing Luck. But it is funny how perception plays in opinions about players..

Andrew Luck in 2012(age 23):

160/288 for 1,971, 55.6%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 74.6 rating

Blaine Gabbert in 2012(age 23):

115/207 for 1,209, 55.6%, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.9 rating

Luck has 81 more attempts, but other that the numbers are pretty similar. Yet Luck is seen as a star of the future and 90% of people think he is worth more than Manning and a whole lot of high round draft picks. Gabbert is seen as a bust and routinely called one of the worst QB in the League. Gabbert is actually a little younger than Luck.

If I had to pick I would pick Luck over Gabbert like almost everyone else. But there is not enough difference between the two to justify the amazingly different perceptions at this point in their careers.

Luck's YPA is a full yard above Gabbert's. Gabbert has the lowest in the league. That's a really significant difference

 

[tombonneau]

Given the information they had at the time, I understand their decision to move in a new direction.

Anyone suggesting that the Colts made the wrong decision several months ago is forgetting how much "doom and gloom" there was surrounding the issue of Manning's health, and is only trying to read back into the past with present knowledge. Even so, for the Colts in the long term, it still may have been the best course of action.

I think the point the OP was making was to look at the decision with the benefit of hindsight which frankly makes it much more intriguing. Of course we all agree at the time it was the right call given the reports of Mannings health. But now I'm not so sure. I voted keeping Mannning was the better call. This hinges on 3-4 more seasons of Manning playing at this level plus the Colts getting an RG3+ type ransom for #1 overall. The former is obviously a bigger gamble - heck Manning might breakdown this year - but even still that deal for Luck would have been a Walker like haul.Either way it was an enviable position for the Colts and knowing what we do now of Manning doesnt even look like they could have made a wrong decision.

 

[pizzatyme]

As a Colts fan and season ticket holder, I understand why they did it as a business, but I would rather have had Manning finish his career here. He has made Irsay many riches. He has put this city on the map. He delivered Indy a Superbowl. Most importantly, Manning wanted to finish his career here and retire a Colt. He deserved that. Season ticket holder have voiced their opinion. The Colts struggle to sell out. Sure they will come back eventually. But this fan base was built by the success Manning brought. The draft pick would have brought a wealth of riches. As it is, I love what Luck brings as a player and person this far.

You are entitled to your opinion. I heard this then and hearing it again. I say this is BS. Manning deserved a paycheck and not a things more. Irsay made Manning many of millions so he should be thanking the Colta for the opportunity, not the other way around. I feel this way about all players. They deserve their paycheck and nothing else.

 

[Raider Nation]

433 yards and counting for Luck today. Rookie record.

 

[maxwelledison]

Peyton's playing well and good for him but how is this a question?

 

[Neofight]

This is not even close. Luck is a more athletic Manning who will be at Manning's level of controlling the line of scrimmage in a year or two, and have 10-15 years in the league more to play. I don't understand how any can vote against that.

There is only one reason the Colts are winning right now, and that's Luck. That game winning drive against the Packers was the nuts (and I'm a Packers fan).

Yeah... that's not the teensiest, tiniest bit possible in the land of reality. I would give it a negative twenty percent chance of coming true.

How did you come to this conclusion; specifically that number?

 

[MSULions]

Peyton's playing well and good for him but how is this a question?

 

[cobalt_27]

Peyton's playing well and good for him but how is this a question?

He just looks so in command, it's unreal. I had very high expectations even for this year. But, I sure didn't see this coming. Geezus.

 

[Mister CIA]

Peyton's playing well and good for him but how is this a question?

He just looks so in command, it's unreal. I had very high expectations even for this year. But, I sure didn't see this coming. Geezus.

Can't wait to actually watch my first Andrew Luck game. All I've seen so far are box scores and a few highlights. ... Ditto for RGIII.