Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (6 Viewers)

[thecatch]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

 

[Dezbelief]

Wasn't there a 10/7 thread or two? Did they get locked? Perhaps we should steer around that part of the ME situation.

 

[beer 30]

But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months

I disagree if the current Israeli administration is worried about what comes next when all the warring is over, why wouldn't you just keep kicking the can down the road every few months with a new circumstance that you claim warrants emptying out your arsenal on a rival?

 

[LawFitz]

Trump dropping a night of bunker busters and then reeling it all back with a public mushroom stamp on Bibi was a one of the boldest and greatest moves of all time, or an alltime blunder. All depends on whether or not hostilities between Israel and the ME are actually brought back to some sort of fragile stability, now that the Iranians' nuclear industry has been at least temporarily curb stomped. Note the programming that came out a day later telling us that the Iranians are still a nuclear threat, which by extension is telling us that war must go on. Let's hope and pray we don't FAAFO.

 

[Chadstroma]

I

Like those articles I posted this morning?

We have to admit that part of their "self preservation" calculation probably includes wiping those countries or regions off the map or at least changing leadership in order to feel safe in the region, correct? I just think it's a bit odd when/if we trust Isreal's intelligence over our own (publicly) or are listening to them more than people we have in our administration.

Let's keep it focused and away from things dragging back into politics with those articles you refer to.

Watch how Israel acts towards the Iran. The fact that they agreed to and the truce seems to be holding is one great peek into their thinking. I don't think you have a good grasp of the capabilities of intelligence agencies- particularly what and who does what well if you think it is odd for me to favor Israeli intelligence in the ME over Iran. Mossad has their fingers all over Iran and even Iran knows this and is paranoid about it.

I would further reinforce that it would be a mistake to put too much weight into a preliminary report from one intelligence agency that was obviously leaked for political purposes.

Once more, I don't think even the Iranians have a full picture yet let alone any intelligence agencies. But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months. That just does not make any sense at all. If the Israeli's are comfortable with the level of success, that speaks volumes to me than anything else. But hey, I am just some guy with no background in this stuff in the burbs of Chicago that doesn't watch US tv news.... so what do I know?

Gotcha, so you get to express your opinions all day without links, but me linking articles to 2 news articles is getting political and dragging the thread down?

I am directly discussing the subject matter. Nothing I have stated in my opinion is political.

Also, i didn't say you were getting political, i said you were expressing a lot of opinions with few links.

The only thing we need to avoid is being political and then otherwise being excellent to each other. Opinions, absent, politics is not banned from my understanding.

 

[Chadstroma]

But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months

I disagree if the current Israeli administration is worried about what comes next when all the warring is over, why wouldn't you just keep kicking the can down the road every few months with a new circumstance that you claim warrants emptying out your arsenal on a rival?

Because once they have a nuke they have it.

 

[Psychopav]

One last ask - please keep the thread to news links and actual stories. This can be a useful thread.

But another day like yesterday and you will have this thread killed.

32 posts since this one.

One was a link to a news story.

Sincerely,
The Hall Monitor

(no I won't keep doing this...last one...)

 

[MTskibum]

I have read a couple articles on this subject, but rather than jump to any conclusions I will wait and see.

I am open to thinking that these moves could be either a good move, bad move, or possibly forgotten about 5-10 years down the road.

 

[BobbyLayne]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Like those articles I posted this morning?

We have to admit that part of their "self preservation" calculation probably includes wiping those countries or regions off the map or at least changing leadership in order to feel safe in the region, correct? I just think it's a bit odd when/if we trust Isreal's intelligence over our own (publicly) or are listening to them more than people we have in our administration.

Let's keep it focused and away from things dragging back into politics with those articles you refer to.

Watch how Israel acts towards the Iran. The fact that they agreed to and the truce seems to be holding is one great peek into their thinking. I don't think you have a good grasp of the capabilities of intelligence agencies- particularly what and who does what well if you think it is odd for me to favor Israeli intelligence in the ME over Iran. Mossad has their fingers all over Iran and even Iran knows this and is paranoid about it.

I would further reinforce that it would be a mistake to put too much weight into a preliminary report from one intelligence agency that was obviously leaked for political purposes.

Once more, I don't think even the Iranians have a full picture yet let alone any intelligence agencies. But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months. That just does not make any sense at all. If the Israeli's are comfortable with the level of success, that speaks volumes to me than anything else. But hey, I am just some guy with no background in this stuff in the burbs of Chicago that doesn't watch US tv news.... so what do I know?

The Israelis could also just be being patient. Waiting to see how far the US will dip their toe in the water. We’re no where near the end of this.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

Or a wise use of mine and your tax dollars.

 

[djmich]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

$7B?

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I have read a couple articles on this subject, but rather than jump to any conclusions I will wait and see.

I am open to thinking that these moves could be either a good move, bad move, or possibly forgotten about 5-10 years down the road.

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

Shouldn't we use outcome vs cost to determine "worth" on this? Even cost valuation at less than 1% of defense budget, I'd say it meets the standard described, but not a fan of measuring it that way personally.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I have read a couple articles on this subject, but rather than jump to any conclusions I will wait and see.

I am open to thinking that these moves could be either a good move, bad move, or possibly forgotten about 5-10 years down the road.

On the infinite trajectory spectrum, I'd quantify it as a bump in the road as of right now if being honest. Now, the Iranian people can make this a much bigger deal if they walk through the opening they've been provided. Personally, I don't share the optimism around the unrest of the people with the govt. The actions just don't match.

 

[thecatch]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

It is if the experts think the target needs 800 tons.

 

[Chadstroma]

But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months

I disagree if the current Israeli administration is worried about what comes next when all the warring is over, why wouldn't you just keep kicking the can down the road every few months with a new circumstance that you claim warrants emptying out your arsenal on a rival?

Because once they have a nuke they have it.

Missing my point. I know nobody in the region wants Iran to have a nuke. I don't know how important that is to the current administration in Israel when they are looking at being prosecuted for bribery & corruption charges as soon as hostilities cease. If you are them, draaaaag hostilities out for as long as you can before you start your stint in prison. Perpetual war keeps you in power.

$7B?

Forget it, he's rolling

$3.5m each x 14 = $49m

Israeli mood is really shifting towards war weariness. They are not accustomed to long engagements. Plus, Israel at war is very different that the US at war. First, about 60% of men and 40% of women can be called up. About 500K have been called up which is roughly 5% of their population. That would be like us calling up 17 million Americans into service. To be clear, this is not military active duty but reservist being called up. Second, unlike here in the US where life went on as usual during GWOT other than maybe longer waits through airports- the average Israeli lives is absolutely altered and impacted by war- not just the call ups but under threat. I will end with that as further discussion of this would go into politics- even if it was Israeli politics.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/ByChrisGordon/status/1937877792382648752

Trump says F-22s and F-35s escorted the package of B-2s that bombed Iran supported by 52 tankers at NATO summit.

https://x.com/michaelh992/status/1937928636318818333

The IDF Chief of Staff revealed that alongside Mossad cells, IDF special forces also operated in #Iran

https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1937944784112652370

Israeli officials tell the @Jerusalem_Post: there's no question the storage facilities for the 400kg highly enriched Iranian uranium have been hit in the US and Israeli airstrikes. What we don't know yet: How much enriched uranium was destroyed and can Iran reach the uranium that was not damaged.

Israeli officials tell me: We are almost certain that Iran wasn't able to take uranium out before/after the targets were hit - but there's never 100%.

https://x.com/mhmiranusa/status/1937918586301083865

Iranian Armed Forces lost more than 30 Generals in the 12-day war with Israel.

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/1937925272281747826

Israeli military chief of staff says Iranian nuclear program absorbed a hard blow and was sent 'years back'- Reuters

Key Gaps in What We Know About the Impact of Attacks on Iran's Nuclear Sites

As the U.S., Israel and others try to assess the extent of damage done by the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program, several facts need to be established, on top of whether enrichment halls at Natanz and Fordow were rendered inoperable.

– Was Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium destroyed or is it recoverable? Did Iran siphon off some of the material before it was attacked by the U.S., allowing it to claim the material was destroyed but diverting some for a potential covert program?

– What happened to the deep underground tunnel network adjacent to Natanz, where Israel has long feared Iran would set up an enrichment site if its nuclear program was attacked. Experts say there was no sign the area where the tunnels are located was hit by the U.S. or Israel. But could the bunker buster attacks on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz have been designed to also damage the tunnels?

– What did Iran produce at Fordow before it was attacked? Could that material have been moved without inspectors visiting? It is impossible to know if Tehran started producing 90% weapons-grade material after June 13 and shipped some of it out. If so, the Iranians could have produced enough weapons-grade material to fuel a couple of nuclear weapons before the U.S. hit the site. Iran might also have had a small stock of 60% enriched uranium at the site which could have been diverted.

– How many of Iran's centrifuges were removed from Natanz and Fordow before they were attacked? Iran has produced thousands of centrifuges which weren't installed at its two enrichment sites. So there is almost no doubt that they have spares. But if they also evacuated centrifuges from the two sites, especially Fordow before it was attacked, it would boost the number of machines Iran has to enrich uranium at its declared sites or covertly.

– Iran's parliament ratified a bill to end cooperation with the U.N. atomic energy agency but it must be signed by the president. It isn’t clear if Iranian authorities will implement the bill. If they do, it would be impossible for the agency to clearly assess the damage in Iran's nuclear facilities and to track down what happened to the uranium stockpile. That could spark a new diplomatic standoff.

How Long Could Israel's Fighter Planes Have Sustained Their Onslaught on Iran?

For the Israel Air Force, the 12 days of direct strikes on Iran were a totally new experience. Almost every night, and sometimes by day, dozens of jets took off to attack Iran. They flew about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) each way, refueling in the air sometimes more than once and spending about three or four hours aloft.
That's about four to five times the length of the average Israeli military sortie before the Iran war.
The damage to Iran's air defense, and its paltry air force, may have made Israel's missions over the Islamic Republic seem like a cakewalk, but they were anything but. Each involved complex logistical planning, unlike the bombing of nearer targets in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

Col. (res.) Matan Kahana, a lawmaker for Benny Gantz's National Unity Party, commanded an F-16 squadron and flew missions until 2020. He says that the longer the war, the more the maintenance of the jets becomes critical.

"Just like a car needs its oil and brake pads replaced, a fighter jet needs maintenance," Kahana says. Some of these tasks can be done at any given air base, but for more comprehensive care, the site has to be Tel Nof in the south, Israel's main air base.
"As the squadron commander, I would meet with my deputy, the technical commander and the garage commander, and we would plan the flying hours for each plane, in compliance with its maintenance schedule," Kahana says. "Everything is planned down to the last millimeter because a plane that isn't maintained properly is hazardous."
Maintenance may involve replacing components like ball bearings, blades and rubber rings, as the plane is taken apart. "Now all IAF planes are accruing a ton of flying hours and they're all racing to the garage to receive maintenance together," Kahana says.

There is also the human dimension. As one former pilot puts it, "We had wars when pilots might fly four sorties every 24 hours. The result was exhaustion.… Flights to Tehran can take a couple of hours in each direction because you don't fly the whole route at the plane's top speed. Together with the time spent over Iran, that can add up to five hours."

According to a source in jet manufacturing, a squadron flies for four days before it's replaced. A squadron can also decide on its own internal division of labor, to give its pilots and other crew a chance to rest.

Perhaps the most challenging aspect of the frequent air raids on Iran was the aerial refueling. Israel's refueling planes are old and their replacement has been delayed. Because they're aviation antiquities, maintenance is a "huge challenge" that caused bottlenecks, Kahana says.

 

[LawFitz]

Israeli mood is really shifting towards war weariness. They are not accustomed to long engagements.

According to Trump and Steve Bannon they were hit very hard by Iranian missiles the last several days prior to the ceasefire. War isn't as much fun when your own soil is getting shelled.

 

[fatness]

Macron says Iran should allow nuclear inspectors back in

French President Emmanuel Macron says it is urgent that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) be allowed to resume its mission in Iran. Posting on X, he says France stands firmly with the IAEA, an organisation which he says is "vital for nuclear safety and security".

That would be a great outcome here, though I doubt it will happen. Iran's a lot less threatening with IAEA inspectors in their facilities.

 

[fatness]

Netanyahu: 'If there were assertions we could have destabilized the Iranian regime, we would have continued the war'

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting on Saturday that Israel would have continued its war with Iran if it believed it could have destabilized the Iranian regime. Netanyahu said, however, that such a regime change should "come from within."

 

[fatness]

Jerusalem Post
Impossible to know how much uranium was razed in strikes on Iran nuke sites, officials tell 'Post'

There is no question that the storage facilities for the 400kg highly enriched Iranian uranium have been hit in the US and Israeli airstrikes; however, it is not known how much uranium was destroyed nor if Iran can reach the uranium that was not damaged, Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday. Israeli officials told the Post that they are almost certain Iran was not able to take uranium out of the nuclear enrichment facilities before or after the strikes. Still, it is impossible to say with complete certainty.

Earlier this week, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin said the Israeli military is closely monitoring the possibility of Iran moving its enriched uranium from sites that are damaged or destroyed to other sites, in response to a question asked during a press conference on Sunday.

 

[fatness]

Iran’s parliament approves bill to suspend cooperation with IAEA

Iran’s parliament has unanimously agreed to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear inspectorate, making it harder for an independent expert assessment to be made about the degree of damage inflicted on Iran’s three key nuclear sites by the joint US and Israeli bombing. It also makes it harder for the location of any highly enriched uranium to be known. The vote is a sign that Iran wants to harden its negotiating position on cooperation with the west in the wake of 12 days of attacks mounted by Israel and the US, but supported by European governments only with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA is likely to be passed for final approval to the Guardian Council, a body empowered to vet legislation.

 

[The Z Machine]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

 

[Joe Bryant]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

What is the link for that? Do you mean https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pproves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea

If so, please add the link you're referring to in posts like these. As well as the Russia / China involvement.

 

[FarFromHome]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

Both countries have openly supported Iran. There is no room for belief there. That's a fact. China has supplied engineering support in their building of facilities and Russia as supplied scientific support for the enrichment process. If you mean you don't believe they will continue to support them, my apologies. Of course both these countries have done so "in support of residential power efforts" or whatever they try to label it, but its all part of the same process and path necessary to eventually get to weapons grade material.

 

[FarFromHome]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

Both countries have openly supported Iran. There is no room for belief there. That's a fact. China has supplied engineering support in their building of facilities and Russia as supplied scientific support for the enrichment process. If you mean you don't believe they will continue to support them, my apologies. Of course both these countries have done so "in support of residential power efforts" or whatever they try to label it, but its all part of the same process and path necessary to eventually get to weapons grade material.

Yes. They support Iran. They will continue to support Iran. I'm saying their is a difference in supporting Iran and giving them a nuke. Once again, all my opinion, but my gut says China and Russia are smart enough not to actually give an unstable country a nuke. Ally or not. Imo

 

[Jayrod]

Not sure why we ever did this Uranium enrichment dance with inspections and agreements and questioning whether or not they stayed in compliance.

Seemed fairly unnecessary and Iran has only 1 real reason for it, and it isn't to provide electricity for a country that has big oil reserves.

Nuclear Power-Free Countries |

radiationtruth.org

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

Both countries have openly supported Iran. There is no room for belief there. That's a fact. China has supplied engineering support in their building of facilities and Russia as supplied scientific support for the enrichment process. If you mean you don't believe they will continue to support them, my apologies. Of course both these countries have done so "in support of residential power efforts" or whatever they try to label it, but its all part of the same process and path necessary to eventually get to weapons grade material.

Yes. They support Iran. They will continue to support Iran. I'm saying their is a difference in supporting Iran and giving them a nuke. Once again, all my opinion, but my gut says China and Russia are smart enough not to actually give an unstable country a nuke. Ally or not. Imo

Oh. Yeah, I agree with this. They won't just give them a bomb. That seems very different than "assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities" though. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Not sure why we ever did this Uranium enrichment dance with inspections and agreements and questioning whether or not they stayed in compliance.

Seemed fairly unnecessary and Iran has only 1 real reason for it, and it isn't to provide electricity for a country that has big oil reserves.

Nuclear Power-Free Countries |

radiationtruth.org

They have a nuclear power plant because we gave them the reactor

Atoms for Peace

Different regime but they were one of the first signatories of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty

Anything they have done to enhance their enrichment capabilities post-1979 has been in non-compliance

 

[BobbyLayne]

Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says​

Rafael Grossi told French radio that there was “no escaping significant physical damage” after the U.S. dropped bunker-buster bombs on the Iranian facility.

A satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies on Tuesday of damage at Fordo enrichment facility in Iran after U.S. military strikes on the site.Credit...Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

By Aurelien Breeden

Reporting from Paris for NYT
June 26, 2025, 8:38 a.m. ET

Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are “no longer operational” after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio on Thursday.

Evaluating the damage from the strikes using satellite imagery alone is difficult, Mr. Grossi told Radio France Internationale in an interview.But given the power of the bombs and the technical characteristics of the plant, “we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational,” he said.

Mr. Grossi added that centrifuges are machines that require a high-degree of precision and are vulnerable to intense vibrations.

“There was no escaping significant physical damage,” Mr. Grossi said. “So we can come to a fairly accurate technical conclusion.”

This is a developing story.