Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (8 Viewers)

[thecatch]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

 

[Dezbelief]

Wasn't there a 10/7 thread or two? Did they get locked? Perhaps we should steer around that part of the ME situation.

 

[beer 30]

But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months

I disagree if the current Israeli administration is worried about what comes next when all the warring is over, why wouldn't you just keep kicking the can down the road every few months with a new circumstance that you claim warrants emptying out your arsenal on a rival?

 

[LawFitz]

Trump dropping a night of bunker busters and then reeling it all back with a public mushroom stamp on Bibi was a one of the boldest and greatest moves of all time, or an alltime blunder. All depends on whether or not hostilities between Israel and the ME are actually brought back to some sort of fragile stability, now that the Iranians' nuclear industry has been at least temporarily curb stomped. Note the programming that came out a day later telling us that the Iranians are still a nuclear threat, which by extension is telling us that war must go on. Let's hope and pray we don't FAAFO.

 

[Chadstroma]

I

Like those articles I posted this morning?

We have to admit that part of their "self preservation" calculation probably includes wiping those countries or regions off the map or at least changing leadership in order to feel safe in the region, correct? I just think it's a bit odd when/if we trust Isreal's intelligence over our own (publicly) or are listening to them more than people we have in our administration.

Let's keep it focused and away from things dragging back into politics with those articles you refer to.

Watch how Israel acts towards the Iran. The fact that they agreed to and the truce seems to be holding is one great peek into their thinking. I don't think you have a good grasp of the capabilities of intelligence agencies- particularly what and who does what well if you think it is odd for me to favor Israeli intelligence in the ME over Iran. Mossad has their fingers all over Iran and even Iran knows this and is paranoid about it.

I would further reinforce that it would be a mistake to put too much weight into a preliminary report from one intelligence agency that was obviously leaked for political purposes.

Once more, I don't think even the Iranians have a full picture yet let alone any intelligence agencies. But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months. That just does not make any sense at all. If the Israeli's are comfortable with the level of success, that speaks volumes to me than anything else. But hey, I am just some guy with no background in this stuff in the burbs of Chicago that doesn't watch US tv news.... so what do I know?

Gotcha, so you get to express your opinions all day without links, but me linking articles to 2 news articles is getting political and dragging the thread down?

I am directly discussing the subject matter. Nothing I have stated in my opinion is political.

Also, i didn't say you were getting political, i said you were expressing a lot of opinions with few links.

The only thing we need to avoid is being political and then otherwise being excellent to each other. Opinions, absent, politics is not banned from my understanding.

 

[Chadstroma]

But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months

I disagree if the current Israeli administration is worried about what comes next when all the warring is over, why wouldn't you just keep kicking the can down the road every few months with a new circumstance that you claim warrants emptying out your arsenal on a rival?

Because once they have a nuke they have it.

 

[Psychopav]

One last ask - please keep the thread to news links and actual stories. This can be a useful thread.

But another day like yesterday and you will have this thread killed.

32 posts since this one.

One was a link to a news story.

Sincerely,
The Hall Monitor

(no I won't keep doing this...last one...)

 

[MTskibum]

I have read a couple articles on this subject, but rather than jump to any conclusions I will wait and see.

I am open to thinking that these moves could be either a good move, bad move, or possibly forgotten about 5-10 years down the road.

 

[BobbyLayne]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Like those articles I posted this morning?

We have to admit that part of their "self preservation" calculation probably includes wiping those countries or regions off the map or at least changing leadership in order to feel safe in the region, correct? I just think it's a bit odd when/if we trust Isreal's intelligence over our own (publicly) or are listening to them more than people we have in our administration.

Let's keep it focused and away from things dragging back into politics with those articles you refer to.

Watch how Israel acts towards the Iran. The fact that they agreed to and the truce seems to be holding is one great peek into their thinking. I don't think you have a good grasp of the capabilities of intelligence agencies- particularly what and who does what well if you think it is odd for me to favor Israeli intelligence in the ME over Iran. Mossad has their fingers all over Iran and even Iran knows this and is paranoid about it.

I would further reinforce that it would be a mistake to put too much weight into a preliminary report from one intelligence agency that was obviously leaked for political purposes.

Once more, I don't think even the Iranians have a full picture yet let alone any intelligence agencies. But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months. That just does not make any sense at all. If the Israeli's are comfortable with the level of success, that speaks volumes to me than anything else. But hey, I am just some guy with no background in this stuff in the burbs of Chicago that doesn't watch US tv news.... so what do I know?

The Israelis could also just be being patient. Waiting to see how far the US will dip their toe in the water. We’re no where near the end of this.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

Or a wise use of mine and your tax dollars.

 

[djmich]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

$7B?

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I have read a couple articles on this subject, but rather than jump to any conclusions I will wait and see.

I am open to thinking that these moves could be either a good move, bad move, or possibly forgotten about 5-10 years down the road.

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

Shouldn't we use outcome vs cost to determine "worth" on this? Even cost valuation at less than 1% of defense budget, I'd say it meets the standard described, but not a fan of measuring it that way personally.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I have read a couple articles on this subject, but rather than jump to any conclusions I will wait and see.

I am open to thinking that these moves could be either a good move, bad move, or possibly forgotten about 5-10 years down the road.

On the infinite trajectory spectrum, I'd quantify it as a bump in the road as of right now if being honest. Now, the Iranian people can make this a much bigger deal if they walk through the opening they've been provided. Personally, I don't share the optimism around the unrest of the people with the govt. The actions just don't match.

 

[thecatch]

​

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

If we're going to do this, let's freaking do it. The current half-measures approach is the worst of all worlds.

And I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the Iranians haven't been trying to build a bomb for decades.

210 tons of bunker busters at a cost of $7Bn doesn’t strike me as a half measure.

It is if the experts think the target needs 800 tons.

 

[Chadstroma]

But, if there is anyone to freak out that the job wasn't done well it is the Israeli's and they would not be happy to stop if they thought it only backed the Iranians up from a nuke by a few months

I disagree if the current Israeli administration is worried about what comes next when all the warring is over, why wouldn't you just keep kicking the can down the road every few months with a new circumstance that you claim warrants emptying out your arsenal on a rival?

Because once they have a nuke they have it.

Missing my point. I know nobody in the region wants Iran to have a nuke. I don't know how important that is to the current administration in Israel when they are looking at being prosecuted for bribery & corruption charges as soon as hostilities cease. If you are them, draaaaag hostilities out for as long as you can before you start your stint in prison. Perpetual war keeps you in power.

$7B?

Forget it, he's rolling

$3.5m each x 14 = $49m

Israeli mood is really shifting towards war weariness. They are not accustomed to long engagements. Plus, Israel at war is very different that the US at war. First, about 60% of men and 40% of women can be called up. About 500K have been called up which is roughly 5% of their population. That would be like us calling up 17 million Americans into service. To be clear, this is not military active duty but reservist being called up. Second, unlike here in the US where life went on as usual during GWOT other than maybe longer waits through airports- the average Israeli lives is absolutely altered and impacted by war- not just the call ups but under threat. I will end with that as further discussion of this would go into politics- even if it was Israeli politics.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/ByChrisGordon/status/1937877792382648752

Trump says F-22s and F-35s escorted the package of B-2s that bombed Iran supported by 52 tankers at NATO summit.

https://x.com/michaelh992/status/1937928636318818333

The IDF Chief of Staff revealed that alongside Mossad cells, IDF special forces also operated in #Iran

https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1937944784112652370

Israeli officials tell the @Jerusalem_Post: there's no question the storage facilities for the 400kg highly enriched Iranian uranium have been hit in the US and Israeli airstrikes. What we don't know yet: How much enriched uranium was destroyed and can Iran reach the uranium that was not damaged.

Israeli officials tell me: We are almost certain that Iran wasn't able to take uranium out before/after the targets were hit - but there's never 100%.

https://x.com/mhmiranusa/status/1937918586301083865

Iranian Armed Forces lost more than 30 Generals in the 12-day war with Israel.

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/1937925272281747826

Israeli military chief of staff says Iranian nuclear program absorbed a hard blow and was sent 'years back'- Reuters

Key Gaps in What We Know About the Impact of Attacks on Iran's Nuclear Sites

As the U.S., Israel and others try to assess the extent of damage done by the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program, several facts need to be established, on top of whether enrichment halls at Natanz and Fordow were rendered inoperable.

– Was Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium destroyed or is it recoverable? Did Iran siphon off some of the material before it was attacked by the U.S., allowing it to claim the material was destroyed but diverting some for a potential covert program?

– What happened to the deep underground tunnel network adjacent to Natanz, where Israel has long feared Iran would set up an enrichment site if its nuclear program was attacked. Experts say there was no sign the area where the tunnels are located was hit by the U.S. or Israel. But could the bunker buster attacks on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz have been designed to also damage the tunnels?

– What did Iran produce at Fordow before it was attacked? Could that material have been moved without inspectors visiting? It is impossible to know if Tehran started producing 90% weapons-grade material after June 13 and shipped some of it out. If so, the Iranians could have produced enough weapons-grade material to fuel a couple of nuclear weapons before the U.S. hit the site. Iran might also have had a small stock of 60% enriched uranium at the site which could have been diverted.

– How many of Iran's centrifuges were removed from Natanz and Fordow before they were attacked? Iran has produced thousands of centrifuges which weren't installed at its two enrichment sites. So there is almost no doubt that they have spares. But if they also evacuated centrifuges from the two sites, especially Fordow before it was attacked, it would boost the number of machines Iran has to enrich uranium at its declared sites or covertly.

– Iran's parliament ratified a bill to end cooperation with the U.N. atomic energy agency but it must be signed by the president. It isn’t clear if Iranian authorities will implement the bill. If they do, it would be impossible for the agency to clearly assess the damage in Iran's nuclear facilities and to track down what happened to the uranium stockpile. That could spark a new diplomatic standoff.

How Long Could Israel's Fighter Planes Have Sustained Their Onslaught on Iran?

For the Israel Air Force, the 12 days of direct strikes on Iran were a totally new experience. Almost every night, and sometimes by day, dozens of jets took off to attack Iran. They flew about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) each way, refueling in the air sometimes more than once and spending about three or four hours aloft.
That's about four to five times the length of the average Israeli military sortie before the Iran war.
The damage to Iran's air defense, and its paltry air force, may have made Israel's missions over the Islamic Republic seem like a cakewalk, but they were anything but. Each involved complex logistical planning, unlike the bombing of nearer targets in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

Col. (res.) Matan Kahana, a lawmaker for Benny Gantz's National Unity Party, commanded an F-16 squadron and flew missions until 2020. He says that the longer the war, the more the maintenance of the jets becomes critical.

"Just like a car needs its oil and brake pads replaced, a fighter jet needs maintenance," Kahana says. Some of these tasks can be done at any given air base, but for more comprehensive care, the site has to be Tel Nof in the south, Israel's main air base.
"As the squadron commander, I would meet with my deputy, the technical commander and the garage commander, and we would plan the flying hours for each plane, in compliance with its maintenance schedule," Kahana says. "Everything is planned down to the last millimeter because a plane that isn't maintained properly is hazardous."
Maintenance may involve replacing components like ball bearings, blades and rubber rings, as the plane is taken apart. "Now all IAF planes are accruing a ton of flying hours and they're all racing to the garage to receive maintenance together," Kahana says.

There is also the human dimension. As one former pilot puts it, "We had wars when pilots might fly four sorties every 24 hours. The result was exhaustion.… Flights to Tehran can take a couple of hours in each direction because you don't fly the whole route at the plane's top speed. Together with the time spent over Iran, that can add up to five hours."

According to a source in jet manufacturing, a squadron flies for four days before it's replaced. A squadron can also decide on its own internal division of labor, to give its pilots and other crew a chance to rest.

Perhaps the most challenging aspect of the frequent air raids on Iran was the aerial refueling. Israel's refueling planes are old and their replacement has been delayed. Because they're aviation antiquities, maintenance is a "huge challenge" that caused bottlenecks, Kahana says.

 

[LawFitz]

Israeli mood is really shifting towards war weariness. They are not accustomed to long engagements.

According to Trump and Steve Bannon they were hit very hard by Iranian missiles the last several days prior to the ceasefire. War isn't as much fun when your own soil is getting shelled.

 

[fatness]

Macron says Iran should allow nuclear inspectors back in

French President Emmanuel Macron says it is urgent that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) be allowed to resume its mission in Iran. Posting on X, he says France stands firmly with the IAEA, an organisation which he says is "vital for nuclear safety and security".

That would be a great outcome here, though I doubt it will happen. Iran's a lot less threatening with IAEA inspectors in their facilities.

 

[fatness]

Netanyahu: 'If there were assertions we could have destabilized the Iranian regime, we would have continued the war'

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting on Saturday that Israel would have continued its war with Iran if it believed it could have destabilized the Iranian regime. Netanyahu said, however, that such a regime change should "come from within."

 

[fatness]

Jerusalem Post
Impossible to know how much uranium was razed in strikes on Iran nuke sites, officials tell 'Post'

There is no question that the storage facilities for the 400kg highly enriched Iranian uranium have been hit in the US and Israeli airstrikes; however, it is not known how much uranium was destroyed nor if Iran can reach the uranium that was not damaged, Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday. Israeli officials told the Post that they are almost certain Iran was not able to take uranium out of the nuclear enrichment facilities before or after the strikes. Still, it is impossible to say with complete certainty.

Earlier this week, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin said the Israeli military is closely monitoring the possibility of Iran moving its enriched uranium from sites that are damaged or destroyed to other sites, in response to a question asked during a press conference on Sunday.

 

[fatness]

Iran’s parliament approves bill to suspend cooperation with IAEA

Iran’s parliament has unanimously agreed to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear inspectorate, making it harder for an independent expert assessment to be made about the degree of damage inflicted on Iran’s three key nuclear sites by the joint US and Israeli bombing. It also makes it harder for the location of any highly enriched uranium to be known. The vote is a sign that Iran wants to harden its negotiating position on cooperation with the west in the wake of 12 days of attacks mounted by Israel and the US, but supported by European governments only with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA is likely to be passed for final approval to the Guardian Council, a body empowered to vet legislation.

 

[The Z Machine]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

 

[Joe Bryant]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

What is the link for that? Do you mean https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pproves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea

If so, please add the link you're referring to in posts like these. As well as the Russia / China involvement.

 

[FarFromHome]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

Both countries have openly supported Iran. There is no room for belief there. That's a fact. China has supplied engineering support in their building of facilities and Russia as supplied scientific support for the enrichment process. If you mean you don't believe they will continue to support them, my apologies. Of course both these countries have done so "in support of residential power efforts" or whatever they try to label it, but its all part of the same process and path necessary to eventually get to weapons grade material.

 

[FarFromHome]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

Both countries have openly supported Iran. There is no room for belief there. That's a fact. China has supplied engineering support in their building of facilities and Russia as supplied scientific support for the enrichment process. If you mean you don't believe they will continue to support them, my apologies. Of course both these countries have done so "in support of residential power efforts" or whatever they try to label it, but its all part of the same process and path necessary to eventually get to weapons grade material.

Yes. They support Iran. They will continue to support Iran. I'm saying their is a difference in supporting Iran and giving them a nuke. Once again, all my opinion, but my gut says China and Russia are smart enough not to actually give an unstable country a nuke. Ally or not. Imo

 

[Jayrod]

Not sure why we ever did this Uranium enrichment dance with inspections and agreements and questioning whether or not they stayed in compliance.

Seemed fairly unnecessary and Iran has only 1 real reason for it, and it isn't to provide electricity for a country that has big oil reserves.

Nuclear Power-Free Countries |

radiationtruth.org

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I know the thing is to assume China and Russia will assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities, but I just don't believe it. Why in the world would they? They live right there kinda next to them. One thing we have learned in the history of mankind is that one day your allies and the next day your enemies. I've just never bought this idea that either country would risk it. All my opinion of course

Both countries have openly supported Iran. There is no room for belief there. That's a fact. China has supplied engineering support in their building of facilities and Russia as supplied scientific support for the enrichment process. If you mean you don't believe they will continue to support them, my apologies. Of course both these countries have done so "in support of residential power efforts" or whatever they try to label it, but its all part of the same process and path necessary to eventually get to weapons grade material.

Yes. They support Iran. They will continue to support Iran. I'm saying their is a difference in supporting Iran and giving them a nuke. Once again, all my opinion, but my gut says China and Russia are smart enough not to actually give an unstable country a nuke. Ally or not. Imo

Oh. Yeah, I agree with this. They won't just give them a bomb. That seems very different than "assist Iran in acquiring nuclear abilities" though. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Not sure why we ever did this Uranium enrichment dance with inspections and agreements and questioning whether or not they stayed in compliance.

Seemed fairly unnecessary and Iran has only 1 real reason for it, and it isn't to provide electricity for a country that has big oil reserves.

Nuclear Power-Free Countries |

radiationtruth.org

They have a nuclear power plant because we gave them the reactor

Atoms for Peace

Different regime but they were one of the first signatories of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty

Anything they have done to enhance their enrichment capabilities post-1979 has been in non-compliance

 

[BobbyLayne]

Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says​

Rafael Grossi told French radio that there was “no escaping significant physical damage” after the U.S. dropped bunker-buster bombs on the Iranian facility.

A satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies on Tuesday of damage at Fordo enrichment facility in Iran after U.S. military strikes on the site.Credit...Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

By Aurelien Breeden

Reporting from Paris for NYT
June 26, 2025, 8:38 a.m. ET

Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are “no longer operational” after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio on Thursday.

Evaluating the damage from the strikes using satellite imagery alone is difficult, Mr. Grossi told Radio France Internationale in an interview.But given the power of the bombs and the technical characteristics of the plant, “we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational,” he said.

Mr. Grossi added that centrifuges are machines that require a high-degree of precision and are vulnerable to intense vibrations.

“There was no escaping significant physical damage,” Mr. Grossi said. “So we can come to a fairly accurate technical conclusion.”

This is a developing story.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Given the recent speech by the Supreme Leader , is this guy 1) completely delusional, 2) being lied to by his own chieftans, or 3) trying to salvage what little he has left with propoganda no Iranian would believe. Likely all three. This is the problem with the "Peace treaty" and why I was against it. The western world did not need it, and now Israel cannot act again. When in fact they should be bombing more Iranian military and energy sites until they have no planes, ships, missiles, launchers or anything. Now old man Ali can take all the time he wants to re-trench himself among his people as a strong leader. The world is weak. We have a chance to save millions upon millions of lives for the next centuries. Instead we do the same as always ... capitulate to those that don't have the stomach for it ... those that can't seem to fathom that a treaty to save a few now means millions will die later.

 

[fatness]

Defiant Khamenei says Iran will ‘never surrender’ to the US

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Iran will “never surrender” to the United States, striking a defiant tone in his first remarks since a ceasefire with Israel took hold. "The American president indicated in one of his statements that Iran must surrender. Surrender! It is no longer a question of enrichment, nor of the nuclear industry, but of the surrender of Iran,” said Khamenei in a statement and televised speech carried by state media on Thursday. “Such an event (surrender) will never happen. It will never happen.”

The speech also comes amid conflicting accounts in the US over the extent of the damage inflicted by US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan during the conflict. US President Donald Trump said the strikes “obliterated” the nuclear facilities. But Khamenei said Trump had “exaggerated” the impact of the attacks and said the US “gained nothing from this war,” claiming the US strikes “did nothing significant” to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

While Iranians who fled Tehran during the war have been gradually returning to the city, “there is a common anxiety among the Iranian people here as well because they believe this was only the first wave of the war,” said Serdar. “Many are questioning the efficiency of Iran’s air defence systems” and feel that Iran could be more vulnerable to a potential future attack from the US and Israel, added Serdar.

 

[fatness]

Early intelligence suggests Iran’s uranium largely intact, European officials say

Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following US strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials have said.The people said the intelligence suggested that Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack.It had been distributed to various other locations, the assessments found.

The people said EU governments were still awaiting a full intelligence report on the extent of the damage to Fordow, which was built deep beneath a mountain near the holy city of Qom, and that one initial report suggested “extensive damages, but not full structural destruction”.Iranian officials have suggested the enriched uranium stockpile was moved before the US bombing of the plant, which came after days of Israeli strikes on the country.

The US had not provided definitive intelligence to EU allies on Iran’s remaining nuclear capabilities following the strikes, and was withholding clear guidance on how it plans future relations with Tehran, said three officials briefed on the discussions. EU policy towards Tehran was “on hold” pending a new initiative from Washington on seeking a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis, the people said, adding that conversations between Trump and EU leaders this week had failed to provide a clear message.

 

[GreenNGold]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

I think the ceasefire will be over pretty quick if things start going this direction. There is a lot of misinformation out there right now, so we'll have to wait and see on a number of things.

 

[LawFitz]

Trump holds the cards after sending just one round of stealth bombers and bunker busters, then verbally smacking both sides' leaders on TV and making direct commands on social media to their militaries, both of which tucked and complied with the quickness. We'll see how he plays those cards from here, but hard to imagine he'd agree to zero future nuclear monitoring - that would be a clear loss. Seems to me either the Iranians comply, or Israel & US raze Tehran and other Iranian cities to the ground. To encourage compliance, maybe it's Russian and/or Chinese inspectors - maybe it's Iranian nuclear power generation run by US personnel - maybe it's a complete ban on nuclear power, combined with a sweetener to rebuild and invest in their oil & gas infrastructure. Who knows, but I'm praying and hoping for a deal that brings some extended peace and stability - the last two weeks have been freakin scary.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Defiant Khamenei says Iran will ‘never surrender’ to the US

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Iran will “never surrender” to the United States, striking a defiant tone in his first remarks since a ceasefire with Israel took hold. "The American president indicated in one of his statements that Iran must surrender. Surrender! It is no longer a question of enrichment, nor of the nuclear industry, but of the surrender of Iran,” said Khamenei in a statement and televised speech carried by state media on Thursday. “Such an event (surrender) will never happen. It will never happen.”

The speech also comes amid conflicting accounts in the US over the extent of the damage inflicted by US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan during the conflict. US President Donald Trump said the strikes “obliterated” the nuclear facilities. But Khamenei said Trump had “exaggerated” the impact of the attacks and said the US “gained nothing from this war,” claiming the US strikes “did nothing significant” to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

While Iranians who fled Tehran during the war have been gradually returning to the city, “there is a common anxiety among the Iranian people here as well because they believe this was only the first wave of the war,” said Serdar. “Many are questioning the efficiency of Iran’s air defence systems” and feel that Iran could be more vulnerable to a potential future attack from the US and Israel, added Serdar.

Hopefully people read this and believe them when they say this. The only people who hold any meaningful cards in all this are the Iranian people. Lasting change comes if they rise up. Otherwise it's just a waiting game and Iran has all the time in the world.

 

[LawFitz]

Also, it's been established now that if you have nukes - North Korea, Pakistan and even India are prime examples - you are less likely to be directly confronted, yet less attacked, than if you don't - Iran, Libya, Iraq and others. Given MAD seems to be the only true deterrent, that creates an incentive for Russians, Chinese and others to provide Iran with nukes. Not saying it's gonna happen, just that there is rationalization for doing so from neighboring countries in that part of the world, who may seek to prevent further western incursions into Iran at some point in the future. The way to get around this, IMHO, is extremely complicated, but involves peace not war.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Defiant Khamenei says Iran will ‘never surrender’ to the US

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Iran will “never surrender” to the United States, striking a defiant tone in his first remarks since a ceasefire with Israel took hold. "The American president indicated in one of his statements that Iran must surrender. Surrender! It is no longer a question of enrichment, nor of the nuclear industry, but of the surrender of Iran,” said Khamenei in a statement and televised speech carried by state media on Thursday. “Such an event (surrender) will never happen. It will never happen.”

The speech also comes amid conflicting accounts in the US over the extent of the damage inflicted by US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan during the conflict. US President Donald Trump said the strikes “obliterated” the nuclear facilities. But Khamenei said Trump had “exaggerated” the impact of the attacks and said the US “gained nothing from this war,” claiming the US strikes “did nothing significant” to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

While Iranians who fled Tehran during the war have been gradually returning to the city, “there is a common anxiety among the Iranian people here as well because they believe this was only the first wave of the war,” said Serdar. “Many are questioning the efficiency of Iran’s air defence systems” and feel that Iran could be more vulnerable to a potential future attack from the US and Israel, added Serdar.

Hopefully people read this and believe them when they say this. The only people who hold any meaningful cards in all this are the Iranian people. Lasting change comes if they rise up. Otherwise it's just a waiting game and Iran has all the time in the world.

Well, the USA would likely not exist if it wasn't for the French and Native Americans helping us out. And other nations occupying the Birts time in other parts of the world. Or at least it would have taken us a lot longer. It doesn't matter what the colonists wanted. Sometimes a culture/people need a little boost to help them out. Imagine if the French had just dropped a couple of cannonballs on British ships and gone back home. It would be a nice battle, but the war might have gone very different. That's what we just did. Dropped some cannonballs. Trump f*ed this up, and I'm a supporter. He made the right first move, then called off the dogs. He should have let Israel finish the job

 

[Chadstroma]

Also, it's been established now that if you have nukes - North Korea, Pakistan and even India are prime examples - you are less likely to be directly confronted, yet less attacked, than if you don't - Iran, Libya, Iraq and others. Given MAD seems to be the only true deterrent, that creates an incentive for Russians, Chinese and others to provide Iran with nukes. Not saying it's gonna happen, just that there is rationalization for doing so from neighboring countries in that part of the world, who may seek to prevent further western incursions into Iran at some point in the future. The way to get around this, IMHO, is extremely complicated, but involves peace not war.

I think the Russian and Chinese enthusiasm for giving an extreme Islamic state nukes is probably fairly low on their board of stuff they get excited about. Sure, they will use Iran and even sell them things but if the Russians and Chinese really wanted Iran nuclear then they would made it happen already. The 'alliance' with Iran for Russia and China is more about what they can get out of Iran- for Russia, help with Ukraine and China cheap oil and of course doing anything to bugger the US and our allies interests. Both China and Russia's relationship with Iran is more about shared interests than alignment or trust. Russia has moved closer to Tehran out of necessity since being bogged down in Ukraine and Iran being one of the very few countries willing to help. As for Putin talking about giving nukes to Iran... well, let's just say that Putin and Russia say a LOT of things and most of it is just outright wrong or lies.

 

[LawFitz]

I just came across this article after making my last couple posts. Encouraging stuff here...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program?cid=ios_app

The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds – all part of an intensifying attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, four sources familiar with the matter said.

Key players from the US and the Middle East have talked with the Iranians behind the scenes even amid the flurry of military strikes in Iran and Israel over the past two weeks, the sources said. Those discussions have continued this week after a ceasefire deal was struck, the sources said.

Trump administration officials emphasized that several proposals have been floated. They are preliminary and evolving with one consistent non-negotiable: zero Iranian enrichment of uranium, which Iran has consistently said it needs. But at least one preliminary draft proposal, described to CNN by two sources, includes several incentives for Iran.

Witkoff told CNBC Wednesday that the US is seeking a “comprehensive peace agreement,” and a Trump administration official emphasized that all of the proposals are designed to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The US has said that Iran may have a nuclear program for peaceful civilian purposes, but that it cannot enrich the uranium for that program. Instead, the US has suggested Iran could import the enriched uranium. Witkoff likened the potential program to that of the United Arab Emirates.

 

[LawFitz]

I think the Russian and Chinese enthusiasm for giving an extreme Islamic state nukes is probably fairly low on their board of stuff they get excited about.

100% they would not be excited to give nukes to Iran.

Seems Trump and Co. are looking for peaceful solutions now, though, so hopefully neither major power will ever get to a place where they seriously consider it.

 

[Dezbelief]

Early intelligence suggests Iran’s uranium largely intact, European officials say

Preliminary assessments indicate Tehran was able to move much of its stockpile

www.ft.com

Preliminary assessments indicate Tehran was able to move much of its stockpile

Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following US strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials have said.

The people said the intelligence suggested that Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack.

It had been distributed to various other locations, the assessments found.

The findings call into question US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the bombing had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.

Fordow was the main site for enriching uranium up to 60 per cent purity, a small step away from weapons grade. Experts said the 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent had been stored at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan before Israel launched its war against Iran on June 13.

Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium was more than 8,400kg, but most of that was enriched to low levels.

Grossi said this week that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had sent a letter to the IAEA on June 13 warning that Iran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials”.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Defiant Khamenei says Iran will ‘never surrender’ to the US

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Iran will “never surrender” to the United States, striking a defiant tone in his first remarks since a ceasefire with Israel took hold. "The American president indicated in one of his statements that Iran must surrender. Surrender! It is no longer a question of enrichment, nor of the nuclear industry, but of the surrender of Iran,” said Khamenei in a statement and televised speech carried by state media on Thursday. “Such an event (surrender) will never happen. It will never happen.”

The speech also comes amid conflicting accounts in the US over the extent of the damage inflicted by US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan during the conflict. US President Donald Trump said the strikes “obliterated” the nuclear facilities. But Khamenei said Trump had “exaggerated” the impact of the attacks and said the US “gained nothing from this war,” claiming the US strikes “did nothing significant” to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

While Iranians who fled Tehran during the war have been gradually returning to the city, “there is a common anxiety among the Iranian people here as well because they believe this was only the first wave of the war,” said Serdar. “Many are questioning the efficiency of Iran’s air defence systems” and feel that Iran could be more vulnerable to a potential future attack from the US and Israel, added Serdar.

Hopefully people read this and believe them when they say this. The only people who hold any meaningful cards in all this are the Iranian people. Lasting change comes if they rise up. Otherwise it's just a waiting game and Iran has all the time in the world.

Well, the USA would likely not exist if it wasn't for the French and Native Americans helping us out. And other nations occupying the Birts time in other parts of the world. Or at least it would have taken us a lot longer. It doesn't matter what the colonists wanted. Sometimes a culture/people need a little boost to help them out. Imagine if the French had just dropped a couple of cannonballs on British ships and gone back home. It would be a nice battle, but the war might have gone very different. That's what we just did. Dropped some cannonballs. Trump f*ed this up, and I'm a supporter. He made the right first move, then called off the dogs. He should have let Israel finish the job

There's a difference between "helping" and "leading". In our example, those countries/tribes were there in support of us to help. Not to do it for us. Afghanistan is the perfect example of what I am talking about. The people there and the "new government" wanted the US to DO it for them. They didn't want us there in a support role. It was clear that once the US left, things would revert because a majority of those who wanted to affect change, didn't want to change. For anything meaningful and lasting to happen in Iran, the people there need to talk the talk and walk the walk. As long as they do, I have no problem supporting them. We do NOT need to be part of Afghanistan part 2.

 

[the moops]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

What is the link for that? Do you mean https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pproves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea

If so, please add the link you're referring to in posts like these. As well as the Russia / China involvement.

Just to back up my man @The Z Machine that exact link was one post above his and seemed obvious (to me) that he was referring to that

 

[Joe Bryant]

Sounds like Iran will try to eliminate all external monitoring (regular and clandestine) of their uranium stock. I bet they move deeper underground and try to push for a bomb. Maybe Russia or China will help them in this process...

What is the link for that? Do you mean https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pproves-bill-to-suspend-cooperation-with-iaea

If so, please add the link you're referring to in posts like these. As well as the Russia / China involvement.

Just to back up my man @The Z Machine that exact link was one post above his and seemed obvious (to me) that he was referring to that

That's why I asked if that was the link he meant as assuming things unsaid is often problematic. I've found on links it's always best to be overly clear. Especially on a topic as important as this. And for the link on Russia / China involvement, I didn't see that one.

 

[LawFitz]

We do NOT need to be part of Afghanistan part 2

Feels like this would be part 5, if not higher. The forever war is not good for anybody, the US very much included. It's creating generations of hatred that won't so easily be washed away.

Beyond that, I had the privilege of visiting the WWI museum in Kansas City this past Memorial Day weekend - it reminded me how both prior World Wars (and perhaps all human wars, really) started with smaller flashpoints, which quickly escalated due to prior underlying tensions between larger powers. We'd be wise as humanity to always remember that and caution accordingly with nuclear annilation a very real and significantly non-zero possibility this time around. A multi-polar world order is realigning and we should be realistic about the perils of violence in response to that realignment. This puzzle is much bigger than Iran - and any particular piece could become more domino than jigsaw if we don't operate holistically and with peace as priority. Piece by piece and peace by peace, this situation can still turn signficantly for the better.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I know people don't always like asking for links. It just helps us stay on track.

News can be a game of "telephone" when it gets changed a little with each reference and eventually winds up very different. If you can include the source (link) each time you reference it, it helps stay more accurate. Especially on a topic like this that's so important. Thanks.

 

[Chadstroma]

Iran Just Shot Down Several Powerful Israeli Hermes 900 Drones​

In a clear display of intelligence sharing within the “Axis of Resistance,” Hezbollah almost certainly shared their tactics for downing the Hermes 900 with Iran.​

During the recent war between Israel and Iran, the Iranians scored several firsts both in the defense of their territory, as well as in their caustic strikes on Israel. One of the major successes for Iranian air defenses—which otherwise largely failed to deter Israeli and American aerial attacks—was successfully downing Israeli Elbit Hermes 900 medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In total, Iran downed three of these drones throughout the 12-day war.

Although the Israeli intelligence services in the run-up to the war had been very effective in suppressing Iran’s otherwise advanced air defense system, the fact of the matter is that their suppression—and sabotage—of those systems was by no means complete. Iranian air defense systems were able to still defend parts of the country from Israel’s otherwise successful attacks. This explains why Israel’s advanced Hermes 900 MALE UAVs were shot down over Iran.

The Elbit Hermes 900 Drone’s Specifications ​

Israel’s Elbit Hermes 900 can stay aloft for up to 36 hours, depending on its payload, and has a maximum altitude of 30,000 feet. Its payload capacity is between 660 to 990 pounds.

The Israeli UAV is powered by a Rotax 914 engine producing 115 horsepower—or, in some variants, a heavier fuel engine (HFE) driving a rear-mounted propeller. It reaches a cruising speed of around 70 miles per hour and has a range of over 621 miles, with satellite communication enabling beyond-line-of-sight operations.

The Hermes 900 is a highly versatile platform due to its modular payload bay and multiple hardpoints. Its payload options include electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensors for real-time imagery and targeting, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) with ground-moving target indication (GMTI), and Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) and Communications Intelligence (COMINT) for signal interception. There’s also Electronic Warfare (EW) systems for jamming and countermeasures. Hyperspectral sensors are available for advanced environmental and material analyses.

As for weapons, the Hermes 900 can carry precision-guided munitions, like the Mikholit glide bomb, or up to four Rafael Spike anti-tank missiles for armed missions.

The Hermes 900’s Operational History​

Hermes 900 first flew in 2009 and entered service with the Israeli Air Force (IAF) in 2012. It deployed during Operation Protective Edge in July 2014 in Gaza, where it outperformed the Hermes 450 in specific missions, despite not being fully operational at the time. Elbit personnel handled maintenance due to untrained IAF ground crews. This system was officially fully integrated in 2015.

The downings of the Hermes 900 in Iran during the recent war were not the first time Israel’s foes were able to shoot this system down, though. Indeed, Hezbollah downed two Hermes 900 UAVs during the brief fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon last year. Hezbollah downed one with a surface-to-air missile in April 2024; the group’s air defenses shot the other one down two months later.

In a clear display of intelligence sharing within the “Axis of Resistance,” Hezbollah almost certainly shared their tactics for downing the Hermes 900 with Iran.

A year later, as the recent war was underway, Iran downed a Hermes 900 with a surface-to-air missile. Later on, over Markazi Province, another Hermes 900 was downed by the area’s AD systems—probably using either the Arman or S-300PMU-2 systems.

The success of both Hezbollah and Iran in downing the Hermes 900 resides in the layered nature of their air defenses. These include Ghadir early-warning systems and the Sayyad-2 and S-300 48N6E2 interceptors. It has been theorized by various military analyst accounts on social media that Iran likely jammed the Hermes 900s communications capability before the Iranian AD missiles locked on for the kill.

These incidents are clear reminders that, while Israel achieved several tactical milestones in their war against Iran, the Iranians were not totally paralyzed as Western media sources alleged. Indeed, based on later intelligence assessments, it was clear that the Iranians, while being stymied at the start of the war by Israel’s sudden and devastating opening attacks against the Islamic Republic, had begun to adapt. Iran was even starting to punch back—hard—against Israel.

 

[Chadstroma]

Iranian new Majid air defense system downs Israeli IAI Heron

bulgarianmilitary.com