Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (14 Viewers)

[fatness]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

 

[fatness]

President Trump has decided not to sign onto a statement calling for de-escalation between Iran and Israel that is being prepared by the Group of 7 industrialized nations, according to a White House official, the first evidence of an ongoing rift between Mr. Trump and his fellow leaders gathered for a summit in Alberta, Canada. The official, who asked for anonymity to discuss the joint statement, which has not been released publicly, did not say why the president was opposed to signing. A copy of the draft statement, which was obtained by The New York Times, urges both Israel and Iran to halt attacks on one another that have killed dozens of people in both countries over the past several days.

A G7 official said the draft statement was not final and that discussions about the situation in the Middle East among the leaders, including Mr. Trump, were expected to continue throughout the day on Monday and again on Tuesday. The official requested anonymity to discussed a sensitive diplomatic matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/world/middleeast/trump-israel-iran-g7-summit.html

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Was Iran really developing nuclear weapons?

Tehran had for more than a year reached “near-zero breakout time”, giving it the capacity to produce sufficient fissile material required for several nuclear bombs within days, said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. But it would still need to develop the technology to build weapons.
“The actual weaponisation process, that’s more challenging to accurately estimate. But it likely would have taken months, possibly up to a year, to convert weapons-grade uranium to fit it with an explosive package, then actually be able to deliver it via a missile,” Davenport said. “So there was no imminent threat of a nuclear bomb.”

Israel says Iran was racing toward a bomb. US intelligence says it was years away

When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that the strikes were necessary to preempt that outcome.

But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment.

US Central Command, responsible for American military operations in the Middle East, has conveyed a greater sense of urgency than the civilian intelligence community when it comes to Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

In the lead-up to Israel’s latest attack, Central Command had endorsed a more dire timeline, believing Iran could obtain a usable nuclear weapon more quickly if it were to sprint towards that goal, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

In recent weeks, some US military leaders, including US Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, have requested more resources to defend and support Israel as it continues to trade fire with Iran – although not to help it launch offensive attacks.

As US intelligence officials – and the IAEA – work to assess the damage Israel has caused to Iran’s nuclear architecture, there is some concern that the blitz might cause Iran to do what US officials believe it hasn’t up until now: pursue weaponization.

But, said one source familiar with the latest intelligence, “Iran is reeling. Not sure they have the capacity or expertise to do that anymore.”

https://x.com/PHREUTERS/status/1934905638254969074

IRAN'S CYBER SECURITY COMMAND BANS THE USE OF ALL CONNECTED DEVICES FOR OFFICIALS AND THEIR SECURITY DETAIL - FARS NEWS -Reuters News

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1934857278898721093

A senior Iranian general who was appointed to his role after his predecessor was killed in Israel's opening strikes on Iran was eliminated in an airstrike yesterday, the military says.

Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani had headed the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, also known as Iran's military emergency command.

Shadmani had replaced Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who was killed on Friday.

The IDF says Shadmani was Iran's de facto most senior military commander, the "war chief of staff," and considered the closest person to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

"He commanded both the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian Armed Forces," the IDF says.

The military says the Khatam-al Anbiya HQ under Shadmani's command "was responsible for managing combat operations and approving Iran's attack plans."

"In his various roles, he had a direct influence on Iran's offensive plans targeting the State of Israel," the IDF says.

Before the killing of his predecessor, Rashid, the IDF says Shadmani served as deputy of the Khatam-al Anbiya HQ and as chief of operations in Iran's armed forces.

Iran leader Khamenei sees his inner circle hollowed out by Israel

Khamenei has seen his main military and security advisers killed by Israeli air strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process.
One of those sources, who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei, described the risk of miscalculation to Iran on issues of defence and internal stability as "extremely dangerous".
Several senior military commanders have been killed since Friday including Khamenei's main advisers from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite military force: the Guards' overall commander Hossein Salami, its aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh who headed Iran's ballistic missile program and spymaster Mohammad Kazemi.
These men were part of the supreme leader's inner circle of roughly 15-20 advisers comprising Guards commanders, clerics, and politicians, according to the sources who including three people who attend or have attended meetings with the leader on major issues and two close to officials who regularly attend.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

How long can it last? Israel and Iran’s endurance battle

Sid Kaushal, a military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, cast it as “a protracted war of the cities” that would be hard for either side to sustain should the US stay on the sidelines or peace talks failed to resume. “The IDF’s air superiority gives Israel advantages, though distance and platform fatigue will eventually tell,” he said.

Military experts can only guess how many missiles Iran has remaining and the level of sophistication, which is being weighed alongside the remaining “magazine depth” of Israeli antimissile systems.
Israel’s layered defences — Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow — have brought down a vast majority of Iran’s missiles and attack drones, but the reserves of interceptors are not infinite. As Ukraine has shown, the longer a conflict continues, the weaker interception rates tend to become.
“The question in my mind is Iranian stocks [of missiles and launchers] — how long can they go on firing ballistic missiles at this rate, and Israeli air defence stocks?” said Paddy McGuinness, the UK’s former deputy national security adviser.
McGuinness said Israel’s attacks on Iran were precise and damaging while most of Iran’s retaliatory strikes were, from a military point of view, more ineffective.
“The military fundamentals are that every time Israel attacks Iran it has some significant effect — it reduces the ability of the Iranian state to fight and operate every time it bombs.”
Iran’s response, he said, consisted of “much less accurate missiles, fired into Israel’s coastal strip around Tel Aviv, even if some are aimed at the ministry of defence or intelligence headquarters or energy facilities. These are not having the same effect.”

“The reports about Iran’s missile stockpiles shrinking are ridiculous,” said the Iranian military adviser Vahidi. “We haven’t yet fully tapped into our strategic missile prowess. We shall deploy our modern warfare, including new-generation missiles, as and when we deem fit.”
There is no information on how many of these advanced missiles were built and how many have been destroyed by Israel. They include solid-fuel missiles with manoeuvrable warheads such as the Fattah-1 and Haji Qassem, and the Khorramshahr, a liquid-fuelled missile that can carry a 2- tonne warhead, Iran announced earlier this year. The IDF on Monday claimed it had destroyed a third of Iran’s missile launchers.
“If the IDF can penetrate and destroy launchers deep in Iran before they can fire, and do it consistently, they’ll have mostly negated Iran’s retaliatory capabilities,” Decker Eveleth of the Arlington-based Center for Naval Analyses said in a post on X.
However, in order to do this, he said, Israel would have to maintain aerial dominance over Iran continuously — a difficult proposition over the long term.
One person familiar with Israeli planning said the operation would depend in part on whether Israel stuck to its bank of military targets in Iran or went beyond them to strike other sites, such as government symbols.
Israel forces had made faster progress on the military targets than expected, the person added, meaning that bank of targets could “probably” be completed in the relatively short term.

Iran Boasts Firing a New Type of Missile: This Is the Arsenal Threatening Israel

Iran on Sunday boasted that it had debuted a relatively new missile against Israel, called Haj Qassem. The missile is named after Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Al-Quds force whom the United States assassinated in 2020.
The Iranians claim the missile has a range of 1,400 kilometers and is fueled by solid propellants. This development gives it "numerous" advantages over liquid propellant missiles, according to Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"The first one is just the simplicity of launch operations – you don't need lengthy refueling," he said. "They can be launched in a very short period of time. You don't need as much personnel because you don't need to have personnel fueling them. You don't need additional support vehicles with the fuel and the oxidizer. ... It's basically a much simpler system."

Hinz told Haaretz that the missile resembles missiles previously fired by Iran at Israel. The reason is that the Iranian Defense Ministry and the Revolutionary Guard are working in parallel, "sometimes developing systems with similar capabilities," he explained. "So, basically, having a precision guided, solid-propellant missile with range to hit Israel was something they both worked on. And, the IRGC came up with the Kheibar Shekan" while the Defense Ministry "came up with the Haj Qassem missile."

Besides Haj Qassem and Fattah-1, Iran has three more missiles in its arsenal that can reach Israel. The first is the Emad, an advanced missile based on the old Shahab-3. It has a 750-kilogram warhead equipped with terminal guidance, allowing it to maneuver mid-flight and strike its target after reentering the atmosphere. The Houthis have fired several such rockets at Israel.
The other kind of missile is the Kheibar Shekan, one of the most advanced missiles in the Iranian arsenal. It is capable of carrying a half-ton warhead to a range of 1,400 kilometers. It is not hypersonic, but its improved maneuverability is intended to help it overcome air-defense systems and to increase its precision.
Hinz believes that in recent days, boosters have been used in another type of missile, the Rezvan. A booster is the part of the missile containing the engine, designed to separate from the war head after several hundred kilometers. The Rezvan is very similar to the Qiam and the Burkan used by the Houthis. Like the Haj Qassem, the Rezvan has a range of 1,400 kilometers but is a liquid-propellant missile. It is 12 meters long, and Iran claims its destruction radius is 100 meters.

Interceptions Don't Come Cheap: Iran's Missile Barrage Spikes Israel's Air Defense Costs

"There's no country in the world that has faced ballistic missile attacks on the scale we've endured," said Boaz Levy, CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries, when asked whether the country's air defenses are approaching their limit. "Last April, they fired 100 missiles at us. In October, it was 200. Now they're launching waves of dozens of missiles in rapid succession."
The cost of every series of interceptions, such as the one overnight on Monday, can reach a billion shekels ($287 million).
"It's misleading to judge the … attack in terms of the cost of the interceptor. When I was the head of the Arrow anti-missile defense program at Israel Aerospace Industries, they always asked me what the price of the defensive missile was, and I always said that it was irrelevant and that we need to compare it to the cost of the potential damage from the attacking missile," Levy said.

Most of the defensive work at the moment is being done on the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, he said. "In addition to them, there are two American systems, the THAAD from Israeli territory and the SM-3 from the sea, which are operated by the Americans sparingly. And there's also the Israeli David's Sling, but what's relevant to the attacks of the kind that we're experiencing at the moment is primarily Arrow systems."
The Israeli defense establishment estimates that the Arrow 3 has a successful interception rate of about 90 percent, while for the THAAD, it's only about 40 percent. The use of SM-3 missiles in the current system has been very limited.

 

[The Z Machine]

A bummer in this... a couple of F-14's were destroyed. A little hit to the nostalgia bone.

And then there were...? Can't be that many left and I think other than a few museums, Iran owns them all, no?

No museums. US law that we destroyed all of ours after retirement. Whatever Iran has is all that is left. (I can't remember how many they have left)

Pretty sure there's an F-14 Tomcat in the Smithsonian Air and Space museum just outside IAD.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

 

[beer 30]

I really don't like Nimitz leaving south china sea.

Can't let them sink one of the new ones

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

We are directly involved in everything. I'm pretty sure what people mean is either aircraft or vessels with American flags launching/dropping stuff into Iran or troops with American falgs displayed with boots on Iranian soil.

 

[BassNBrew]

I really don't like Nimitz leaving south china sea.

Can't let them sink one of the new ones

It's being decommissioned in 2026. This is basically a longer route home.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

We are directly involved in everything. I'm pretty sure what people mean is either aircraft or vessels with American flags launching/dropping stuff into Iran or troops with American falgs displayed with boots on Iranian soil.

I think its important to keep saying it, so i will keep doing so. Isreal is our proxy and we seem more than willing to let them suck us into another war for them. I don’t get it.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

We are directly involved in everything. I'm pretty sure what people mean is either aircraft or vessels with American flags launching/dropping stuff into Iran or troops with American falgs displayed with boots on Iranian soil.

I think its important to keep saying it, so i will keep doing so. Isreal is our proxy and we seem more than willing to let them suck us into another war for them. I don’t get it.

So is NATO and Taiwan and S. Korea and non-NATO countries subject to attack by Russia.

 

[Chadstroma]

A bummer in this... a couple of F-14's were destroyed. A little hit to the nostalgia bone.

And then there were...? Can't be that many left and I think other than a few museums, Iran owns them all, no?

No museums. US law that we destroyed all of ours after retirement. Whatever Iran has is all that is left. (I can't remember how many they have left)

Pretty sure there's an F-14 Tomcat in the Smithsonian Air and Space museum just outside IAD.

I looked it up... you are right. I must have misremembered or misunderstood whatever I read a while ago on that. They destroyed parts and the museum pieces had their engines and other critical parts like the gear box for the swing able wings taken out and destroyed making them unflyable and unable restore to flying status.

I feel better now... go ahead and wipe out the rest of the Iranian fleet. I can still see them in a museum(s).

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

We are directly involved in everything. I'm pretty sure what people mean is either aircraft or vessels with American flags launching/dropping stuff into Iran or troops with American falgs displayed with boots on Iranian soil.

Thank you. Let's leave our involvement at that.

For this thread to survive, please keep it on the news stories with links as @Don't Toews Me and others have done.

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel says it killed Iran's 'senior-most military official'

Israel said Tuesday that they killed Iran’s wartime chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ali Shamdani, a close ally of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

www.foxnews.com

Another one bites the dust. Good riddance

 

[KarmaPolice]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

We are directly involved in everything. I'm pretty sure what people mean is either aircraft or vessels with American flags launching/dropping stuff into Iran or troops with American falgs displayed with boots on Iranian soil.

I think its important to keep saying it, so i will keep doing so. Isreal is our proxy and we seem more than willing to let them suck us into another war for them. I don’t get it.

So is NATO and Taiwan and S. Korea and non-NATO countries subject to attack by Russia.

Not to the same level. Isreal could not do even a fraction of operations without our help. Both administrations even say so - Bibi constantly says as much. This is not the same level as your other examples. We are directly attached to them, and in 2025 to the detriment of our relationships with other allies.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't see any good reason for the US to get directly involved in this war. And getting involved is starting to feel uncomfortably close.

We are already directly involved.

We are directly involved in everything. I'm pretty sure what people mean is either aircraft or vessels with American flags launching/dropping stuff into Iran or troops with American falgs displayed with boots on Iranian soil.

I think its important to keep saying it, so i will keep doing so. Isreal is our proxy and we seem more than willing to let them suck us into another war for them. I don’t get it.

So is NATO and Taiwan and S. Korea and non-NATO countries subject to attack by Russia.

Not to the same level. Isreal could not do even a fraction of operations without our help. Both administrations even say so - Bibi constantly says as much. This is not the same level as your other examples. We are directly attached to them, and in 2025 to the detriment of our relationships with other allies.

Per J's ask, I'll let you have the last word on this and move on.

 

[BassNBrew]

Israel says it killed Iran's 'senior-most military official'

Israel said Tuesday that they killed Iran’s wartime chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ali Shamdani, a close ally of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

www.foxnews.com

Another one bites the dust. Good riddance

Shamdani led the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters — also referred to as Iran’s military emergency command — for approximately four days before he was killed, according to the Times of Israel. Shamdani was preceded by Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who was killed in Israel’s initial strikes on Iran on June 13.

I hope he got some guaranteed up front money because it's pretty obviously Iran offered a contract that wouldn't see it's completion.

 

[beer 30]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel says it killed Iran's 'senior-most military official'

Israel said Tuesday that they killed Iran’s wartime chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ali Shamdani, a close ally of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

www.foxnews.com

Another one bites the dust. Good riddance

Shamdani led the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters — also referred to as Iran’s military emergency command — for approximately four days before he was killed, according to the Times of Israel. Shamdani was preceded by Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who was killed in Israel’s initial strikes on Iran on June 13.

I hope he got some guaranteed up front money because it's pretty obviously Iran offered a contract that wouldn't see it's completion.

It is like back in Iraq when the fastest way to get killed was to be named the second in command of al-Qaeda. We killed those guys like every other week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

Some pretty interesting surprises in there. WTF is Brazil doing with all those planes? Also you have to wonder if Russia is counting museum peices.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

I see that as an insane use of our tax dollars.

 

[beer 30]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

Some pretty interesting surprises in there. WTF is Brazil doing with all those planes? Also you have to wonder if Russia is counting museum peices.

Italy was the one that surprised me but yea there was some that made me

And I also wonder what qualifies as military aircraft.

 

[beer 30]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

I see that as an insane use of our tax dollars.

Peace Through Strength

 

[KarmaPolice]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

I see that as an insane use of our tax dollars.

Peace Through Strength

We sure do bring a lot of peace around the world. Maybe we wouldn't feel the need to use it and be in constant war if he didnt have 5x as much as everyone else. Gotta justify that budget though.

 

[beer 30]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

I see that as an insane use of our tax dollars.

Peace Through Strength

We sure do bring a lot of peace around the world. Maybe we wouldn't feel the need to use it and be in constant war if he didnt have 5x as much as everyone else. Gotta justify that budget though.

You know how government spending works, use it or lose it. Those are old numbers too, we're at 1 trillion for the defense budget now. It's ridiculous. We have 40,000 troops in the ME in various spots along with a fair number of Navy ships either there or heading that way. It's hard to say peace when you have more casual combat troops in the area than some countries armies. The time of being the world's police officer should be coming to an end.

 

[Sand]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

I see that as an insane use of our tax dollars.

Peace Through Strength

We sure do bring a lot of peace around the world. Maybe we wouldn't feel the need to use it and be in constant war if he didnt have 5x as much as everyone else. Gotta justify that budget though.

It's the other way around - our military dominance is what has kept the US as the economic superpower it is and has kept the US dollar as the reserve currency. In that sense it isn't spending, it's an investment with a huge ROI.

 

[Sand]

Was Iran really developing nuclear weapons?

Tehran had for more than a year reached “near-zero breakout time”, giving it the capacity to produce sufficient fissile material required for several nuclear bombs within days, said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. But it would still need to develop the technology to build weapons.
“The actual weaponisation process, that’s more challenging to accurately estimate. But it likely would have taken months, possibly up to a year, to convert weapons-grade uranium to fit it with an explosive package, then actually be able to deliver it via a missile,” Davenport said. “So there was no imminent threat of a nuclear bomb.”

I don't think there is any way of parsing through it logically and coming to the conclusion that a nuclear missile wasn't the end goal. Iran has oodles of energy, so the thought that they needed enriched uranium for "peaceful purposes" is a lark. Not to mention building the enrichment facility a 1/2 mile down into rock. That totally screams innocent motives.

As far as building a missile, if Chris Collet (assisted by John Lithgow) can design and build one in a week or so then Iran surely can.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

I see that as an insane use of our tax dollars.

Peace Through Strength

We sure do bring a lot of peace around the world. Maybe we wouldn't feel the need to use it and be in constant war if he didnt have 5x as much as everyone else. Gotta justify that budget though.

It's the other way around - our military dominance is what has kept the US as the economic superpower it is and has kept the US dollar as the reserve currency. In that sense it isn't spending, it's an investment with a huge ROI.

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war. I get that is a reason for all that, I am saying it didn't have to be perpetual war and policing the world that made us into a superpower. Also, it it because of our ties with these operations currently that is eroding much of that trust around the world. All this dominance and spending doesn't mean as much if we only have 1 friend to trade with and who trusts our dollar and economy.

 

[Sand]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

 

[thecatch]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

Some pretty interesting surprises in there. WTF is Brazil doing with all those planes? Also you have to wonder if Russia is counting museum peices.

Italy was the one that surprised me but yea there was some that made me

And I also wonder what qualifies as military aircraft.

Exactly. Probably a lot of questionable counting in there.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

Not quite a 1:1 comparison when you bring into the equation cost of living, government benefits, etc.. Also, both can be true - the 1% benefit much more than the rest of the population from war and we are doing pretty well in genearl on a global scale, GDP wise. My previous point still stands that of all the things we could be leading the world on and choose to drive our economy IMO perpetual war is a messed up way to do it.

Do you think our economy and standing in the world is going to sustain if we get sucked in (more) with a war in Iran?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

Some pretty interesting surprises in there. WTF is Brazil doing with all those planes? Also you have to wonder if Russia is counting museum peices.

Italy was the one that surprised me but yea there was some that made me

And I also wonder what qualifies as military aircraft.

Exactly. Probably a lot of questionable counting in there.

Another thing that equalizing some of that spending is when we have seen in these two wars what damage $2K drones can do. I was reading a messed up article at the start of the war when they talked about the $millions we used to intercept and take out simple drone, and it wasn't always successful. Things like that are going to make the prospect of war even more dangerous as it might not always come down to who spends the most like in the past.

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.

 

[beer 30]

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.

Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

Not quite a 1:1 comparison when you bring into the equation cost of living, government benefits, etc.. Also, both can be true - the 1% benefit much more than the rest of the population from war and we are doing pretty well in genearl on a global scale, GDP wise. My previous point still stands that of all the things we could be leading the world on and choose to drive our economy IMO perpetual war is a messed up way to do it.

Do you think our economy and standing in the world is going to sustain if we get sucked in (more) with a war in Iran?

I'm pretty sure a large majority of the rest of the World doesn't want Iran having nuclear weapons and is on-board with either destroying their capabilities outright or forcing them to the table to negotiate a halt of their program. Most of the Iranian people don't even like their own government.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

Not quite a 1:1 comparison when you bring into the equation cost of living, government benefits, etc.. Also, both can be true - the 1% benefit much more than the rest of the population from war and we are doing pretty well in genearl on a global scale, GDP wise. My previous point still stands that of all the things we could be leading the world on and choose to drive our economy IMO perpetual war is a messed up way to do it.

Do you think our economy and standing in the world is going to sustain if we get sucked in (more) with a war in Iran?

I'm pretty sure a large majority of the rest of the World doesn't want Iran having nuclear weapons and is on-board with either destroying their capabilities outright or forcing them to the table to negotiate a halt of their program. Most of the Iranian people don't even like their own government.

Maybe you are right, but I am pretty sure the rest of the world still likes things done a certain way and by certain rules and norms. I came across THIS during my morning reads through news. Many people and countries have also had issues with how Isreal (yet, again - that means us) have conducted themselves over the last 2 years.

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.

Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.

A possible explanation for the move for sure.

 

[Chadstroma]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

Not quite a 1:1 comparison when you bring into the equation cost of living, government benefits, etc.. Also, both can be true - the 1% benefit much more than the rest of the population from war and we are doing pretty well in genearl on a global scale, GDP wise. My previous point still stands that of all the things we could be leading the world on and choose to drive our economy IMO perpetual war is a messed up way to do it.

Do you think our economy and standing in the world is going to sustain if we get sucked in (more) with a war in Iran?

I'm pretty sure a large majority of the rest of the World doesn't want Iran having nuclear weapons and is on-board with either destroying their capabilities outright or forcing them to the table to negotiate a halt of their program. Most of the Iranian people don't even like their own government.

Pretty much everyone doesn't want them to. The Arab states are all secretly doing cartwheels for what Israel is doing.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

Not quite a 1:1 comparison when you bring into the equation cost of living, government benefits, etc.. Also, both can be true - the 1% benefit much more than the rest of the population from war and we are doing pretty well in genearl on a global scale, GDP wise. My previous point still stands that of all the things we could be leading the world on and choose to drive our economy IMO perpetual war is a messed up way to do it.

Do you think our economy and standing in the world is going to sustain if we get sucked in (more) with a war in Iran?

I'm pretty sure a large majority of the rest of the World doesn't want Iran having nuclear weapons and is on-board with either destroying their capabilities outright or forcing them to the table to negotiate a halt of their program. Most of the Iranian people don't even like their own government.

Maybe you are right, but I am pretty sure the rest of the world still likes things done a certain way and by certain rules and norms. I came across THIS during my morning reads through news. Many people and countries have also had issues with how Isreal (yet, again - that means us) have conducted themselves over the last 2 years.

A joint statement of mostly religiously Muslim countries having issues with Israel . . . I'm shocked.

 

[fatness]

Trump claims US has 'total control' of Iranian skies, says know exactly where 'Supreme Leader is hiding'

President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that the US has “complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” and asserted that US intelligence has identified the exact location of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, amid escalating tensions in the West Asia. Taking to Truth Social, Trump said, “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”

 

[coopersdad]

Given the current actions in the ME, I thought this was a neat look at military aircraft by country

https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1934940280345768326

Some pretty interesting surprises in there. WTF is Brazil doing with all those planes? Also you have to wonder if Russia is counting museum peices.

Italy was the one that surprised me but yea there was some that made me

And I also wonder what qualifies as military aircraft.

Brazil stuck out to me............last time there was a need for air superiority in south america?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Glad the 1% can benefit so greatly on war.

The GDP per capita of Mississippi (last in US states) is ~53k. That's equal to Germany and greater than the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc., etc. This isn't a 1% gets rich issue - it's pervasive through and through our economy.

Not quite a 1:1 comparison when you bring into the equation cost of living, government benefits, etc.. Also, both can be true - the 1% benefit much more than the rest of the population from war and we are doing pretty well in genearl on a global scale, GDP wise. My previous point still stands that of all the things we could be leading the world on and choose to drive our economy IMO perpetual war is a messed up way to do it.

Do you think our economy and standing in the world is going to sustain if we get sucked in (more) with a war in Iran?

I'm pretty sure a large majority of the rest of the World doesn't want Iran having nuclear weapons and is on-board with either destroying their capabilities outright or forcing them to the table to negotiate a halt of their program. Most of the Iranian people don't even like their own government.

Maybe you are right, but I am pretty sure the rest of the world still likes things done a certain way and by certain rules and norms. I came across THIS during my morning reads through news. Many people and countries have also had issues with how Isreal (yet, again - that means us) have conducted themselves over the last 2 years.

A joint statement of mostly religiously Muslim countries having issues with Israel . . . I'm shocked.

It's at least evidence that chad could be wrong and the Arab states are doing backflips over what Isreal is doing. We can also be honest and bring up the many European countries that have voiced their objections in various ways too.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139

NOW -- 17 U.S. Stratotanker refueling aircraft are en route to the #MiddleEast from #Europe, reportedly accompanied by fighter jets.

https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1935008649098703046

The U.S. military is deploying more fighter aircraft to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes. Story coming. w/
@idreesali114
U.S. officials stress the defensive nature of the deployment.

https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1934982953534439869

The latest Iranian barrages of missiles have been much smaller in size. Around 10 were launched this hour. Saw one interception from Tel Aviv.

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1935022747437900076

Iran has been launching smaller salvos of missiles at Israel over the past day because its capabilities have been degraded by Israeli strikes, the IDF believes.

According to IDF assessments, Iran is not trying to conserve missiles for a longer war, but rather, they are struggling to coordinate larger attacks.

The majority of Iran's top military leadership has been eliminated in strikes, and some 40% of its ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed, according to the IDF.

The IDF has also said it has been "hunting down" missile launchers and thwarting the attacks.

Iran was launching dozens of missiles at a time in the first days of the conflict, but in the past day has been launching only a handful at a time. However, those attacks have been more frequent.

Because of the smaller missile attacks, the Home Front Command removed its pre-launch alert, which instructed civilians in areas potentially under threat from Iranian ballistic missiles to be prepared to head to bomb shelters.

It is believed to be harder for the IDF to detect the pre-launch preparations compared to when barrages comprise dozens of missiles.

Israel Says It Hit More Missile Launchers

Israel's military said it carried out a series of strikes in western Iran, hitting missile launchers.

The military said it hit dozens of surface-to-surface missile launchers as well as surface-to-air missile launch sites and radars embedded in western Iran Tuesday. Israel’s military earlier said it struck a number of Iran’s missile launchers and weapons storage sites overnight.

U.N. Atomic Agency Says Natanz Underground Halls Hit by Israeli Strike

The United Nations atomic agency said it believes Israel directly hit the underground centrifuge halls at Iran's largest enrichment facility, Natanz.

The International Atomic Energy Agency initially said Israel knocked out the power at the site, which could have destroyed all the centrifuges operating underground at the facility. But the agency had said there was no indication of a direct hit where Iran keeps thousands of centrifuges. Without them, Iran can't enrich uranium at Natanz, a step toward making a nuclear weapon.

"Based on continued analysis of high resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday’s attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz," the IAEA said on X Tuesday.

While the power loss might have destroyed the centrifuges alone, a direct hit on the halls could have done much greater damage. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said satellite imagery showed a small crater above the main underground hall at Natanz. He said Iran had started to fill in some of the craters at the site.

Iranian leadership is facing criticism from its citizens online

Many people in Iran see not this as the people's war, but the regime's war.

We are seeing many people, despite restrictions in Iran, saying they are against the regime.

That doesn't mean they support Netanyahu, but they are so fed up with the regime that they want it to disappear.

The Iranian intelligence services have been arresting people for posting jokes about the weakening of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

One person in Tehran told me his 14-year-old boy was taken for questioning simply for posting meme on social media, and his father had to go and beg them to release him.

That's the kind of environment in Iran right now.

In addition to military targets, Israel has been trying to weaken the Iranian security services which play a pivotal role in supressing unrest and protest.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters to Energy Markets

Conflict between Israel and Iran has rekindled fears of a disruption to a narrow waterway key to the global economy.

Skyscraper-sized tankers ferry roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum, as well as massive cargoes of natural gas, from the energy-rich nations surrounding the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and into international markets. Those supplies are key inputs for gasoline, chemicals and electricity everywhere from China to the U.S.

Shocks to the Strait of Hormuz are a perennial fear during conflicts that include Iran, and Tehran has often threatened to choke off trade flows by force in the face of threats to its own oil exports. A short-term closure could add between $8.25 to $31.25 to the cost of a barrel of oil, according to ClearView Energy Partners, creating market chaos that could draw in Western and Chinese navies.

Israel’s air campaign hasn’t affected Iranian oil shipments, which largely head to China. Many traders see a closure of the strait by Tehran--a move that would choke off supplies from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other neighbors--as unlikely. But fears of such a disruption over the past week have helped push up tanker rates and propelled benchmark U.S. crude futures roughly 11% higher, to about $72 a barrel.

 

[fatness]

Live blog by the Times of Israel on war happenings today for anyone interested. It's updated frequently.

Israel will achieve its objectives against Iran within a week or two, say IDF officials

Iran continues firing waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel, no injuries reported * Trump says US knows where Khamenei 'is hiding,' but won't assassinate him 'for now'

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Dennis Castro]

A bummer in this... a couple of F-14's were destroyed. A little hit to the nostalgia bone.

And then there were...? Can't be that many left and I think other than a few museums, Iran owns them all, no?

No museums. US law that we destroyed all of ours after retirement. Whatever Iran has is all that is left. (I can't remember how many they have left)

Pretty sure there's an F-14 Tomcat in the Smithsonian Air and Space museum just outside IAD.

This is correct. It is the plane my uncle was flying over Libya in 1989 during the second Gulf of Sidra incident. Yeah, my mom‘s brother was partially responsible for an international incident. Pretty big news around the dinner table at the time.

In fact, we were strongly discouraged from speaking to anyone about it, but his name is on Wikipedia, so I figure it’s cool now. A lot of the family gathered at Udvar-Hazy when they unveiled the exhibit with a small ceremony honoring my uncle, his RIO, and the other personnel involved.

Grumman F-14 Tomcat at the Udvar-Hazy Center | National Air and Space Museum

The museum’s F-14D (R) is on display at the National Air and Space Museum's Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center, having been cleaned and made ready for display with the help of the Navy’s VF-31 squadron technicians. It is credited with one MiG kill during a fleet defense mission near the coast of Libya...

airandspace.si.edu

1989 air battle near Tobruk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If you ever watch the footage from that day, which they showed on CNN, my uncle is the one throwing out F bombs.

 

[beer 30]

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.

Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.

A possible explanation for the move for sure.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139

 

[eighsse2]

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.

Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.

A possible explanation for the move for sure.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139

If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.

Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.

A possible explanation for the move for sure.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139

I wondering if we will do the final blow to Fordow as we are the only ones capable of doing so. Trump has made it clear that Iran with a nuke isn't an option. The only three ways go make sure that doesn't happen are 1) The Israeli's have something up their sleeve that is not currently known. 2) Iran agrees to a deal where they give them up. 3) We enter and obliterate Fordow with our bunker buster.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/laurnorman/status/1935029414246469664

"We do not see major damage" at Fordow, says @rafaelmgrossi to @amanpour.
"i think there has been a significant setback but the enrichment capabilities still exist, yes." @rafaelmgrossi -2-

Israel Built Its Case for War With Iran on New Intelligence. The U.S. Didn’t Buy It.

Before launching its attack on Iran last week, Israel provided the U.S. with intelligence it deemed alarming: Tehran was conducting renewed research useful for a nuclear weapon, including on an explosive triggering system.

But U.S. officials briefed by the Israelis weren’t convinced that the information pointed to a decision by Tehran to build a bomb, according to a senior intelligence official, another U.S. official and two congressional aides familiar with the discussions.

The gap between Israel’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear program and that of the U.S. helps explain why the two allies haven’t been aligned in recent days on dealing with Tehran.

The intelligence Israel shared within the last month covered multiple lines of Iranian research into technology necessary for building a nuclear weapon, according to the U.S. officials. They described “a multi-point initiation system,” a technique used to detonate multiple simultaneous explosions that is used in nuclear bombs, the officials and aides said.

The Israelis also mentioned Iran’s work on neutron particles to generate a chain reaction—a critical part of nuclear fission—as well as on plastic explosives and on integration of fissile material in an explosive device, the U.S. officials said.

The U.S. response was that the intelligence only showed Iran was still researching nuclear weapons, including revisiting work it had done before its nuclear weapons program shut down in 2003, the senior intelligence official and the other U.S. official said.

The U.S. and Israel largely agree that Iran has in recent months put itself in a stronger position to build a nuclear bomb. Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Israel’s campaign so far had set Iran’s nuclear work back by about five to six months, the senior U.S. intelligence official said, adding that the damage could grow as Israel’s campaign continues.

Israeli air power reigns over Iran, but needs US for deeper impact

A senior Western defence source said Israeli warplanes have been refuelling over Syria - a bastion of Iranian influence until Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December. Israel is now operating over Syria with "near-total freedom", the source said.

A regional intelligence source said Israel had built a "truly surprising" network of agents in Tehran, likening the targeted killings of top officials to the blows directed at Hezbollah's leadership. The source said Israel's ability to "penetrate Tehran from the inside" had been astonishing.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the RUSI think-tank in London, said Iran has "few technical answers" to the combination of Israeli F-35 aircraft capable of waging electronic warfare against its anti-aircraft systems, supported by F-16s and F-15s carrying precision-guided ballistic missiles.
Though Israel was long assessed to have the upper hand, the speed, scale and effectiveness of its strikes - particularly against top Iranian generals - caught many off guard, said Barin Kayaoglu, a Turkish defence analyst. Iran's military appeared to have been "sleeping at the wheel", he said.
However, he cited challenges for Israel, saying its air force could find it difficult to maintain the current tempo of its operations because of the need to replenish ammunition stocks and maintain warplanes.

Israel-Iran conflict could last only as long as their missiles hold out

Without resupplies from the United States or greater involvement by U.S. forces, some assessments project Israel can maintain its missile defense for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, said an individual briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, adding that as early as later this week, Israel’s systems may only be able to intercept a smaller proportion of missiles because of a need to ration defensive munitions. “They will need to select what they want to intercept,” said the individual, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. “The system is already overwhelmed.”

Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert affiliated with the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance in Virginia, noted that in 2014, Israel sought a ceasefire with Hamas days before it ran out of air defense interceptors. The level of interceptor stocks is a highly sensitive subject in Israel, but “it could be a factor in a ceasefire” this time as well, Inbar said.
Israel employs a multilayered air defense system, consisting of its famous Iron Dome, which intercepts lower-altitude rockets; the David’s Sling and Arrow systems; and expensive Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems delivered from the United States.
Inbar said a problem for Israel is that it largely relies on the relatively expensive Arrow system, which fires missiles that cost $3 million each, to counter attacks from Iran. While inexpensive and mass-produced Iron Dome interceptors are useful against rudimentary rockets fired by Hamas, the Iron Dome is as ineffective as “shooting a 9-millimeter pistol” at heavy Iranian missiles that hurtle through the outer atmosphere at several times the speed of sound, Inbar said.