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Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (26 Viewers)

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.
Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.
A possible explanation for the move for sure.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139
If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.
The world doesn't have the stomach for that anymore. That pretty much has ended since WW2. Can't fathom what it takes to beat a country into full submission and surrender. As my wife's great uncle once told me about the Battle of the Bulge (he was a tank commander), "We did things to win that battle that wouldn't be allowed today. We stacked the frozen bodies in piles like logs."
 
If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.

Not disparaging you but war being done right is a bit of a misnomer. I know we try to justify war but damn that just sounds grimy. I'm also not in the mood to be involved in another ME war but here we are.

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.
Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.
A possible explanation for the move for sure.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139
I wondering if we will do the final blow to Fordow as we are the only ones capable of doing so. Trump has made it clear that Iran with a nuke isn't an option. The only three ways go make sure that doesn't happen are 1) The Israeli's have something up their sleeve that is not currently known. 2) Iran agrees to a deal where they give them up. 3) We enter and obliterate Fordow with our bunker buster.
I think you're probably right. With the Trump statement about air superiority, mobilizing aircraft carriers and refueling tankers on the way, it seems pretty evident that, and there is precedent from Trump 1 term, that this will be taken care of for the last time. My guess is the US will provide heavy support to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear machine once & for all assuming they don't reach a deal in the next 24-48 hours. Guessing we are discussing this with them right now as assets are moved into place.

The Israeli's have intimated that there is something else coming by the weekend, I don't think the above is it. As you said I think they have something else going on as well.
 
If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.

Not disparaging you but war being done right is a bit of a misnomer. I know we try to justify war but damn that just sounds grimy. I'm also not in the mood to be involved in another ME war but here we are.

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.
Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.
A possible explanation for the move for sure.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139
I wondering if we will do the final blow to Fordow as we are the only ones capable of doing so. Trump has made it clear that Iran with a nuke isn't an option. The only three ways go make sure that doesn't happen are 1) The Israeli's have something up their sleeve that is not currently known. 2) Iran agrees to a deal where they give them up. 3) We enter and obliterate Fordow with our bunker buster.
I think you're probably right. With the Trump statement about air superiority, mobilizing aircraft carriers and refueling tankers on the way, it seems pretty evident that, and there is precedent from Trump 1 term, that this will be taken care of for the last time. My guess is the US will provide heavy support to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear machine once & for all assuming they don't reach a deal in the next 24-48 hours. Guessing we are discussing this with them right now as assets are moved into place.

The Israeli's have intimated that there is something else coming by the weekend, I don't think the above is it. As you said I think they have something else going on as well.
I get it, "war done right" is an oxymoron. I hate war like anyone else. I think of it similarly to something like chemotherapy. If you're going to create tremendous pain to take out the cancer, freaking take out the cancer, don't pussyfoot around. I have no idea if that would be considered an insensitive analogy, but sorry if it is.
 
If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.

Not disparaging you but war being done right is a bit of a misnomer. I know we try to justify war but damn that just sounds grimy. I'm also not in the mood to be involved in another ME war but here we are.

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.
Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.
A possible explanation for the move for sure.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139
I wondering if we will do the final blow to Fordow as we are the only ones capable of doing so. Trump has made it clear that Iran with a nuke isn't an option. The only three ways go make sure that doesn't happen are 1) The Israeli's have something up their sleeve that is not currently known. 2) Iran agrees to a deal where they give them up. 3) We enter and obliterate Fordow with our bunker buster.
I think you're probably right. With the Trump statement about air superiority, mobilizing aircraft carriers and refueling tankers on the way, it seems pretty evident that, and there is precedent from Trump 1 term, that this will be taken care of for the last time. My guess is the US will provide heavy support to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear machine once & for all assuming they don't reach a deal in the next 24-48 hours. Guessing we are discussing this with them right now as assets are moved into place.

The Israeli's have intimated that there is something else coming by the weekend, I don't think the above is it. As you said I think they have something else going on as well.
I get it, "war done right" is an oxymoron. I hate war like anyone else. I think of it similarly to something like chemotherapy. If you're going to create tremendous pain to take out the cancer, freaking take out the cancer, don't pussyfoot around. I have no idea if that would be considered an insensitive analogy, but sorry if it is.
I don't think so and I agree, if you are going to do this, leave no doubt. I alluded to it in my other response, I don't think the current regime will have a problem issuing an ultimatum and following through on it to the finish. There was a similar response to ISIS the first time around.
 
And we can go into Iran and completely destroy their current nuclear complex today. Tomorrow, they will start rebuilding. The US just can't seem to comprehend the resolve the people of that region have.
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...

So a couple months ago we had Tulsi under oath saying Iran wasnt close - years away. My questions are what, if anything changed to make it now the time to go in? The president the other day when asked about that report said he didn't care what she said.

This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
 
If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.

Not disparaging you but war being done right is a bit of a misnomer. I know we try to justify war but damn that just sounds grimy. I'm also not in the mood to be involved in another ME war but here we are.

Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.
Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.
A possible explanation for the move for sure.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139
I wondering if we will do the final blow to Fordow as we are the only ones capable of doing so. Trump has made it clear that Iran with a nuke isn't an option. The only three ways go make sure that doesn't happen are 1) The Israeli's have something up their sleeve that is not currently known. 2) Iran agrees to a deal where they give them up. 3) We enter and obliterate Fordow with our bunker buster.
I think you're probably right. With the Trump statement about air superiority, mobilizing aircraft carriers and refueling tankers on the way, it seems pretty evident that, and there is precedent from Trump 1 term, that this will be taken care of for the last time. My guess is the US will provide heavy support to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear machine once & for all assuming they don't reach a deal in the next 24-48 hours. Guessing we are discussing this with them right now as assets are moved into place.

The Israeli's have intimated that there is something else coming by the weekend, I don't think the above is it. As you said I think they have something else going on as well.
Reports coming out about US military action is on the table going into the Trump Nat Sec Council meeting.
 
The world doesn't have the stomach for that anymore. That pretty much has ended since WW2. Can't fathom what it takes to beat a country into full submission and surrender. As my wife's great uncle once told me about the Battle of the Bulge (he was a tank commander), "We did things to win that battle that wouldn't be allowed today. We stacked the frozen bodies in piles like logs."
Most important actors in the world are happy Israel is taking it to Iran to stop them from obtaining nukes. There is some lip service to 'diplomacy' but even the Arab nations are secretly giving each other high fives. No one wants Iran with a nuke and for Israel, it is really is an existential demand that they do not.
 
And we can go into Iran and completely destroy their current nuclear complex today. Tomorrow, they will start rebuilding. The US just can't seem to comprehend the resolve the people of that region have.
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...

So a couple months ago we had Tulsi under oath saying Iran wasnt close - years away. My questions are what, if anything changed to make it now the time to go in? The president the other day when asked about that report said he didn't care what she said.

This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
Have that same vibe

Israel said Iran carried out key test that indicated they were closer to building a bomb than previously thought.

Tulsi said no, Trump said he didn't care.

Seems like the US intelligence apparatus is either spot on and it's all a ruse or we've missed the boat again on a major intelligence disaster. Who you gonna believe? History knows but she ain't telling us just yet.
 
The world doesn't have the stomach for that anymore. That pretty much has ended since WW2. Can't fathom what it takes to beat a country into full submission and surrender. As my wife's great uncle once told me about the Battle of the Bulge (he was a tank commander), "We did things to win that battle that wouldn't be allowed today. We stacked the frozen bodies in piles like logs."
Most important actors in the world are happy Israel is taking it to Iran to stop them from obtaining nukes. There is some lip service to 'diplomacy' but even the Arab nations are secretly giving each other high fives. No one wants Iran with a nuke and for Israel, it is really is an existential demand that they do not.

Who are the "most important actors", and do you have any links about this? Or is this just your opinion?
 
And we can go into Iran and completely destroy their current nuclear complex today. Tomorrow, they will start rebuilding. The US just can't seem to comprehend the resolve the people of that region have.
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...

So a couple months ago we had Tulsi under oath saying Iran wasnt close - years away. My questions are what, if anything changed to make it now the time to go in? The president the other day when asked about that report said he didn't care what she said.

This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
Have that same vibe

Israel said Iran carried out key test that indicated they were closer to building a bomb than previously thought.

Tulsi said no, Trump said he didn't care.

Seems like the US intelligence apparatus is either spot on and it's all a ruse or we've missed the boat again on a major intelligence disaster. Who you gonna believe? History knows but she ain't telling us just yet.
Exactly. If our intelligence is that bad, why are there not firings there?

I think the evidence points more to the other- we just don't care about the facts, weren't serious avout negotiations, and this was the end plan to this situation no matter what.
 
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We continue to look at Fordow. We did not see any visible damage as of June 17 imagery. Checking the visual assessment with change detection analysis led to the same conclusion.


We have been wondering if Israel is striking centrifuge manufacturing sites. The answer is yes. We will be providing follow-up imagery analyses soon, but we want to report the following:

Based on imagery, there is major damage evident at the TABA/TESA site, which has manufactured gas centrifuge parts, the non-rotating centrifuge parts in more recent years. It is located just west of the city of Karaj. Two of the three buildings were destroyed and the third was severely damaged. This facility was attacked earlier on June 23, 2021, but evidently rebuilt.


For over two hours PM Netanyahu has been meeting several ministers and senior defence echelon officials: "longest consultation of these kind since the start of the Israel-Iran war"

Israel Says Iran Now Launching Missiles Mainly From Region Around Isfahan

Iranian forces have been "pushed back into central Iran" and are now focused mainly on launching missiles from the region around Isfahan, according to a spokesman for the Israeli military, Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, who said that the development was the result of "significant blows to the Iranian regime."

Isfahan is home to key Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, including Iran's conversion facility for turning uranium into a form that can be enriched.


Iranian missile doctrine has for years been massive retaliation. They have promised big salvos in response to Israeli aggression. We're not seeing that because they now can't organize those sort of campaigns anymore - either because of C3 death, launcher destruction, etc.

Iran Is Preparing Missiles for Possible Retaliatory Strikes on U.S. Bases, Officials Say

But the Israeli attacks may have changed Iran’s calculus. U.S. officials skeptical of Israel’s campaign said on Tuesday that it has probably convinced Tehran that the only way to prevent future attacks would be to develop a full nuclear deterrent.


Pakistan denies it ever pledged to nuke Israel if Israel nukes Iran. Islamabad said its nuclear weapons are only for the benefit of defending Pakistani sovereignty and people, i.e. the bomb is for India.

The internet across Iran is being disrupted, experts and Iranians say.

Internet services across Iran are suffering severe disruptions, according to Iranian officials, experts and citizens, who say the government is likely restricting access to limit the spread of information about strikes and for fear of Israeli cyberattacks.

Two Iranian officials said on Tuesday that the restrictions would reduce bandwidth by 80 percent in an effort to combat Israeli operatives trying to carry out covert operations. The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said that the country would disconnect from global internet on Tuesday night, and that people could still use the national internet service, called N.I.N.
 
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Who are the "most important actors", and do you have any links about this? Or is this just your opinion?
After us, Europe and the region.

The whole point of something being secret is that there would be no links to provide you that would show this in fact. I am not alone in believing that Gulf States, though publicly condemning the attack are in fact somewhat happy to see it. A big part of the difference from public and private is that they do not want it to further escalate into a regional war that they get drawn into. They have also worked to build better diplomatic relations with Iran and their own populace is not keen on supporting Israel over a Muslim country, even if that country is majority Shia and Persian. For those who follow the geopolitics of the region- it is pretty much a safe bet that the Gulf states are happy to see Iran's nuclear capability being destroyed but it is a very complicated situation.

For Europe, the reactions have been somewhat 'Give diplomacy a chance' in the most water downed way that is actually supportive of Israel. The UK is a great example of this as they have moved assets to the region while calling for restraint and diplomacy.
 
If you think you need to use "we" or "they" on you're reply....rethink your wording. It comes across as opinionated and not news-worthy. There are other places for that.

I love this place for news (and a bit of commentary on that news). We fact check folks, require links etc. I don't care what side you are on. I do care to find unbiased news and links.
 
I don't think there is any way of parsing through it logically and coming to the conclusion that a nuclear missile wasn't the end goal. Iran has oodles of energy, so the thought that they needed enriched uranium for "peaceful purposes" is a lark. Not to mention building the enrichment facility a 1/2 mile down into rock. That totally screams innocent motives.

As far as building a missile, if Chris Collet (assisted by John Lithgow) can design and build one in a week or so then Iran surely can.
That was Iran's goal in 2003, and this discussion of how close they are to actually having a nuclear weapon has been going on for years now, with an ever-changing audience. The way it usually happens is that IDF says Iran is "within X weeks" of having a functional nuke, the US press parrots that, and suddenly it seems like a new alarming situation to people not following it until that time. Then Iran doesn't blow anything up and the story fades, until the IDF announces it again. Since every other time the "within X weeks" story appeared turned out to be wrong, there's a hefty chance that they're not that close now. Just a newer audience to what has been a false alarm so far (that they are "close" to having nukes).
 
I don't think there is any way of parsing through it logically and coming to the conclusion that a nuclear missile wasn't the end goal. Iran has oodles of energy, so the thought that they needed enriched uranium for "peaceful purposes" is a lark. Not to mention building the enrichment facility a 1/2 mile down into rock. That totally screams innocent motives.

As far as building a missile, if Chris Collet (assisted by John Lithgow) can design and build one in a week or so then Iran surely can.
That was Iran's goal in 2003, and this discussion of how close they are to actually having a nuclear weapon has been going on for years now, with an ever-changing audience. The way it usually happens is that IDF says Iran is "within X weeks" of having a functional nuke, the US press parrots that, and suddenly it seems like a new alarming situation to people not following it until that time. Then Iran doesn't blow anything up and the story fades, until the IDF announces it again. Since every other time the "within X weeks" story appeared turned out to be wrong, there's a hefty chance that they're not that close now. Just a newer audience to what has been a false alarm so far (that they are "close" to having nukes).
Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

And if Nicaragua kept stating for decades that US was evil and they wanted to destroy us and were actively trying to get a nuke do you think we would just sit back and wait? of course not.

For the record, I'm not saying Israel is without blame. Their treatment of Palestinians has been deplorable. But it's easy for me to judge when we have a 1000 mile moat around us.
 
Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.
I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?
 
Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.
I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?
They've been working on it long enough that I wouldn't put the chances at 0%.
 
Israeli Pilot Who Struck Iran: 'We Thought We'd Encounter More Effective Defense Systems'

"When we dreamed about the sortie into Iran over the years, I for one imagined something different," said Maj. N., 31, married and the father of a daughter, to Haaretz. He serves as a combat pilot in the array of F-16 fighter jets that led the attack.

For years, the Israel Air Force has been preparing for the possibility that it would be required to attack Iran. The scenarios, the targets and the munitions have changed over the years, but the destination, Iran, never left the desk of the IAF commanders in the past two decades.

For many of the air force pilots, the possibility that they would fly above the skies of Iran and attack its nuclear sites and its surface-to-surface missiles, and would circle above the skies of Iran without interference, on their watch of all times, was considered an impossible dream.

"We prepared for the possibility of encountering much more effective defense than what we have seen and are seeing today in Iran," says Maj N. He doesn't attribute the IAF's achievements in Iran and its aerial superiority to a failure on the part of the Iranian army.

"It's a powerful army that even today has high capabilities, and we have to remain modest," he asserts.

"We prepared for a very long time for an attack in Iran and for a variety of scenarios, which led to a situation where this entire system is working well. All our systems worked in cooperation, which would make it possible at such an early stage to undermine the capabilities of the Iranian defense, and to hit them hard in order to arrive at the situation that we're in today," he added.
"The intelligence we receive is simply unbelievable," he stresses.

"There's almost nothing that surprises us. The level of intelligence that the IAF has from all the intelligence organizations is at the highest level. For years, we've been preparing for this thing that we would have to get to Iran, and we've arrived at a situation where we're at a very high level of preparedness."


"Israel is running low on defensive Arrow interceptors, according to a U.S. official, raising concern about its ability to counter long-range ballistic missiles if the conflict isn’t resolved soon."


Iran is now launching missiles from deeper within its territory. Launch from Esfahan creates a range requirement of at least 1,600 km, limiting Iran to the use of its liquid-propellant ballistic missiles. These, however, require longer and more visible launch preparations.


The situation is something of a war of attrition over great distances. The question is will missile interceptors run out before Iran’s ability to launch its own missiles does? At this time it seems Iran is on the downside of that equation, but midcourse intercept capabilities are especially limited in quantity and degradation of that defensive layer would put more stress on the terminal defense layer, even if fewer missiles are fired.

Israeli Hermes drone shot down in Isfahan, Iranian state media says

Iranian state TV reports that army air defence forces shot down an advanced Hermes drone early this morning in central Isfahan province.

A correspondent at the scene, standing beside the wreckage, says the drone was intercepted at approximately 05:00 local time (02:30 BST).

He says that the drone was destroyed before it could deploy any weapons, highlighting what he says is the effectiveness of Iran’s early detection and response systems.

Two centrifuge production facilities hit overnight:

The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said it had information suggesting that two centrifuge production facilities in Iran had been hit, hours after Israel claimed that its warplanes had attacked a centrifuge plant in the country. It said that one building was hit at the Tehran Research Center, where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested. Two buildings were destroyed at the TESA Karaj workshop where different centrifuge components were manufactured, the watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a social media post.

IDF says some 30 ballistic missiles fired by Iran at Israel overnight

Iran launched some 30 ballistic missiles at Israel in two barrages overnight, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says.

He says most of the projectiles were intercepted, and there were no injuries.
 
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...
Not much sympathy for a band of dangerous religious fanatics finding out (though they aren't the only dangerous religious fanatics involved in this cluster), but then afterwards... what? What's the plan? How will things be better?
It probably won't because this involves the "r" word you posted. On both sides.

My distaste for the situation is because it is largely because of that and so many deaths are involved.
 
And we can go into Iran and completely destroy their current nuclear complex today. Tomorrow, they will start rebuilding. The US just can't seem to comprehend the resolve the people of that region have.
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...

So a couple months ago we had Tulsi under oath saying Iran wasnt close - years away. My questions are what, if anything changed to make it now the time to go in? The president the other day when asked about that report said he didn't care what she said.

This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
Have that same vibe

Israel said Iran carried out key test that indicated they were closer to building a bomb than previously thought.

Tulsi said no, Trump said he didn't care.

Seems like the US intelligence apparatus is either spot on and it's all a ruse or we've missed the boat again on a major intelligence disaster. Who you gonna believe? History knows but she ain't telling us just yet.
Exactly. If our intelligence is that bad, why are there not firings there?

I think the evidence points more to the other- we just don't care about the facts, weren't serious avout negotiations, and this was the end plan to this situation no matter what.

Israel has been wanting this war all along and will create whatever narrative to justify it. It's a shame Trump is dumb enough to take the bait. You look at what happened in Palestine and realize there is little thought given to what happens after. This will likely be another Iraq type disaster :kicksrock:
Please refrain or this thread will be locked.

The forum for most everything not covered elsewhere. Most things go, but keep it clean. No politics allowed.
 
And we can go into Iran and completely destroy their current nuclear complex today. Tomorrow, they will start rebuilding. The US just can't seem to comprehend the resolve the people of that region have.
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...

So a couple months ago we had Tulsi under oath saying Iran wasnt close - years away. My questions are what, if anything changed to make it now the time to go in? The president the other day when asked about that report said he didn't care what she said.

This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
Have that same vibe

Israel said Iran carried out key test that indicated they were closer to building a bomb than previously thought.

Tulsi said no, Trump said he didn't care.

Seems like the US intelligence apparatus is either spot on and it's all a ruse or we've missed the boat again on a major intelligence disaster. Who you gonna believe? History knows but she ain't telling us just yet.
Exactly. If our intelligence is that bad, why are there not firings there?

I think the evidence points more to the other- we just don't care about the facts, weren't serious avout negotiations, and this was the end plan to this situation no matter what.

Israel has been wanting this war all along and will create whatever narrative to justify it. It's a shame Trump is dumb enough to take the bait. You look at what happened in Palestine and realize there is little thought given to what happens after. This will likely be another Iraq type disaster :kicksrock:
The first time elected, this administration was also very pro-Isreal do it shouldn't be a surprise. Honestly i think this was the outcome no matter who won last year.

What i didn’t expect is for us to do things like openly suggest removing people of gaza for beachfront real estate, or for us to brag about stalling negotiations so Isreal could strike those facilities, things like that.
 
[/QUOTE]
This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
[/QUOTE]
Iraq was the more capable military when we took them on both times. Iran's air force is quite archaic with the bulk of their capabilities being F-14's, F-4's and F-5's with some MIG-29's and Mirage F1's. Their air defense systems are mostly domestic design/production. Along with the covert action to take many out has not been shown to be effective.

They fought an 8 year war which which Iraq was initially winning before it turned into a stalemate.
 
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...
Not much sympathy for a band of dangerous religious fanatics finding out (though they aren't the only dangerous religious fanatics involved in this cluster), but then afterwards... what? What's the plan? How will things be better?
I think the biggest thing we can do is tear down the internet censorship within Iran. Expose the population to other world views and hope they drive change internally.

America should know better that removing regimes doesn't always facilitate change. I believe this type of conflict (bombing & removing political leaders) is becoming outdated. True change takes generations.
 
This feels so much like Iraq 2, but with much bigger ramifications and a more capable country we are attacking.
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Iraq was the more capable military when we took them on both times. Iran's air force is quite archaic with the bulk of their capabilities being F-14's, F-4's and F-5's with some MIG-29's and Mirage F1's. Their air defense systems are mostly domestic design/production. Along with the covert action to take many out has not been shown to be effective.

They fought an 8 year war which which Iraq was initially winning before it turned into a stalemate.
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Bigger country, more people, better missle systems than 2 countries we spent a decade + in, waated a bunch of money in, and for what? That was what i was getting at.

We don't have to argue about everything. ;)
 
Israel really did the same type of drone attack as Ukraine recently did against the bombers. They inserted Mossad/Special Forces into the country, smuggled drones in and then at the appointed time, went within striking distance of the Iranian air defenses and paved the way for the air force to come in and do damage. Israel has air superiority over pretty much all of Western and even central Iran. Their biggest issue is not having much of a tanker arm to keep these fighters on station long and the distance they have to go really handicaps the tempo of what Israel can keep up. The other main issue is the lack of a bunker buster to the degree that is needed to really penetrate to the Fordow facility.
Well given the recent migration of tankers from the US heading east, I think that problem will be solved soon.
A possible explanation for the move for sure.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet heavy on the over. Coupled with the Trump statement above of the US having total air superiority of the skies over Iran sure sounds like we just got into another ME war. Awesome! Perpetual war for the win!

From @Don't Toews Me link above https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1934966001243992139
If war is done right it shouldn't be perpetual ... but I know it usually is these days.
The world doesn't have the stomach for that anymore. That pretty much has ended since WW2. Can't fathom what it takes to beat a country into full submission and surrender. As my wife's great uncle once told me about the Battle of the Bulge (he was a tank commander), "We did things to win that battle that wouldn't be allowed today. We stacked the frozen bodies in piles like logs."

My grandfather was in the same battle. And also D-Day. Other was a Japanese POW. They say the same thing.

The world may not have the stomach for it, but does it have the stomach for 100-500 years of countries like Iran and N Korea threatening the existence of other countries and freedom? For those two countries (and some like them) to threaten every other country in the world with annihilation for the rest of existence? I'd be willing to die right now to get rid of both of them for future generations.

You would hope people would rise up from within, but that is a hard ask of many nations where the people have been brainwashed into submission and a govt system that keeps the bad in power (Iran's popular vote went to reformists 55% last election). But it is meaningless because the fundamentalists have like 90% of the true voting power. Even if the reformists won, the supreme leader simply doesn't sanction the election.

I know we don't like nation building. It has gone poorly. But I'd take the chance of that over dealing with a strong Iran that every single day, hour and minute is hell bent on destroying the USA and creating an Islamic only world.

ETA ... I need to add IMO to every statement I make on here so the mods don't get upset if I disagree with them. So this is all IMO.

ETA 2: i'd also say Iran govt are idiots. They could easily 1) stop attacking the west and Israel, and stop supporting those that do, 2) stop their nuclear program so they could feed their people with that money, and 3) use their ridiculous amounts of oil .... all to become a very stable and happy country even with the Islamic fundamentalist regime. The easy decision has been in front of them for 30+ years. They refuse to take it.
 
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Iran Near-Bomb-Grade Uranium’s Location Uncertain, UN Watchdog Says

The United Nations nuclear watchdog said the location of Iran’s near-bomb-grade stockpile of enriched uranium cannot currently be verified, as Israel’s ongoing military assault is preventing inspectors from doing their work.
Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium — enough to produce 10 nuclear warheads — should theoretically be secured under an International Atomic Energy Agency seal at an underground facility at Isfahan. But IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Wednesday its whereabouts are now unclear, given Tehran warned him the stockpile could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack.
“I’m not so sure,” Grossi told Bloomberg Television when asked about the uranium. “In a time of war, all nuclear sites are closed. No inspections, no normal activity can take place.”

Until Israel’s attacks began late last week, IAEA inspectors were conducting more than one visit a day to Iranian nuclear sites. However, Grossi said Iran has yet to inform his agency about “special measures” it planned to implement to protect its stockpile from attack.
“We haven’t been informed of anything in detail,” Grossi said. “We don’t know what these protective additional measures to be.”
The IAEA is continuing to monitor sites via satellite imagery and hasn’t seen any indication that Iran has attempted to remove the highly enriched stockpile. Doing so would constitute a serious breach of Iran’s obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which aims to prevent the spread of atomic weapons.
“Iran is aware that this stockpile needs to be there under constant IAEA supervision,” Grossi said.

Iran’s highly-enriched uranium could fit into 16 cylinders measuring 36-inches (91.4 centimeters) in height, according to the US government’s Office of Scientific and Technical Information. Even if Israel destroys Iran’s enrichment infrastructure, the location of that material would still need to be verified because of the risk it could be moved to a clandestine facility.

While IAEA inspectors “have not seen” any structured effort by Iran to produce nuclear weapons, “no country in the world is enriching uranium at this level,” Grossi said.
“Many high officials have said Iran has all the pieces of the puzzle,” the director general said. “There has been a lot of ambiguity, and this is never good.”


Three Iranian government planes have taken off from the south of the country in the past hour and landed in Muscat, the capital of Oman. One of them is the presidential plane, which until recently served President Massoud Pazakhian. The purpose of the flight is unclear: whether they arrived for mediation talks in Oman, or whether they were smuggled out of the country with passengers on board.


Confirmed: Live network data show #Iran is now in the midst of a near-total national internet blackout; the incident follows a series of earlier partial disruptions and comes amid escalating military tensions with Israel after days of back-and-forth missile strikes


Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and some 1,000 drones at Israel since the start of the conflict on Friday, according to fresh data from the IDF.

Of the ballistic missiles, just over 20 impacted urban areas in Israel, causing casualties and extensive damage. 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 wounded.

The casualty figures are far below what the IDF anticipated when it planned the operation against Iran, according to military officials.

Of the 1,000 drones, fewer than 200 reached Israel's borders and entered Israeli airspace. However, not one of the drones impacted Israel. All were either intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Navy, or fell short before reaching Israel.


Iranian Air Force commander says missile & drone attacks against Israel have been limited so far in order to measure Israeli air defense & their dispositions. Once determined, attack intensity will increase.
 
ETA 2: i'd also say Iran govt are idiots. They could easily 1) stop attacking the west and Israel, and stop supporting those that do, 2) stop their nuclear program so they could feed their people with that money, and 3) use their ridiculous amounts of oil .... all to become a very stable and happy country even with the Islamic fundamentalist regime. The easy decision has been in front of them for 30+ years. They refuse to take it.
Right? I’ll never understand it
 
ETA 2: i'd also say Iran govt are idiots. They could easily 1) stop attacking the west and Israel, and stop supporting those that do, 2) stop their nuclear program so they could feed their people with that money, and 3) use their ridiculous amounts of oil .... all to become a very stable and happy country even with the Islamic fundamentalist regime. The easy decision has been in front of them for 30+ years. They refuse to take it.
Right? I’ll never understand it
It's the primary reason countries like this cannot have nuclear weapons. It's the result when you have terrorists factions that take over by force and then rule. It's ugly. Imo
 
ETA 2: i'd also say Iran govt are idiots. They could easily 1) stop attacking the west and Israel, and stop supporting those that do, 2) stop their nuclear program so they could feed their people with that money, and 3) use their ridiculous amounts of oil .... all to become a very stable and happy country even with the Islamic fundamentalist regime. The easy decision has been in front of them for 30+ years. They refuse to take it.
Right? I’ll never understand it
It's their religion. If they are doing things correctly, they will know so by the major pushback they get from outside sources. It's a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts. If they don't get pushback, they aren't doing something right.
 
ETA 2: i'd also say Iran govt are idiots. They could easily 1) stop attacking the west and Israel, and stop supporting those that do, 2) stop their nuclear program so they could feed their people with that money, and 3) use their ridiculous amounts of oil .... all to become a very stable and happy country even with the Islamic fundamentalist regime. The easy decision has been in front of them for 30+ years. They refuse to take it.
Right? I’ll never understand it
It's their religion. If they are doing things correctly, they will know so by the major pushback they get from outside sources. It's a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts. If they don't get pushback, they aren't doing something right.
Well, it doesn’t seem like a very nice life to live
 
But it worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan...
Not much sympathy for a band of dangerous religious fanatics finding out (though they aren't the only dangerous religious fanatics involved in this cluster), but then afterwards... what? What's the plan? How will things be better?
I have a lot of sympathy for the citizens of our countries because of the zealots making decisions. I don't care if Hamas and terrorists get theirs, but all the peripheral stuff is terrible.
 
ETA 2: i'd also say Iran govt are idiots. They could easily 1) stop attacking the west and Israel, and stop supporting those that do, 2) stop their nuclear program so they could feed their people with that money, and 3) use their ridiculous amounts of oil .... all to become a very stable and happy country even with the Islamic fundamentalist regime. The easy decision has been in front of them for 30+ years. They refuse to take it.
Right? I’ll never understand it
Same deal with Gaza. They received an order of magnitude more money per capita than people rebuilding from WWII. Instead of building a society with that money they built tunnels and rockets.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?

Don't get upset with me, I'm just asking a question that I haven't seen discussed a lot on the media outlets
In fact I find it difficult to get much neutral coverage so I appreciate the links in here

-I do feel for the citizens that are fleeing Tehran, there are no nuke sites there that I have heard of
I'm all for a new regime but I use to play poker a lot in SoCal, met many Iranians over the years that fled from there or could find a way out
What you see in that awful regime is not a reflection of the many people that I have had the honor to sit and talk to

I wish the people of Iran would rise up and knock this regime out once and for all but it's been a long long time and not much has changed.
Thoughts and Prayers to all the innocent lives on both sides that are going to be lost
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
As deep underground as the Iranians have dug I think most of the radiation stays underground.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.

It is a good thing for Isreal we trust their intelligence over ours then. Perfect excuse for us to be drawn into another war in the ME.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.
Forward deployment of bombs is not unheard of by any means. I suspect those bombs are closer than most people realize,and that two B2‘s are already sitting in the region waiting for orders.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.

It is a good thing for Isreal we trust their intelligence over ours then. Perfect excuse for us to be drawn into another war in the ME.
It is pretty much a known fact that they have enriched to 60%. There is no civilian use reason for that- it is the road towards a weapon. The amount of investment that they have made into a 'civilian nuclear program' outweighs the benefits of one. And absolutely no reason to enrich to 60%- again, a cost that would be needless for civilian use.

They do not need an active weapons program now which is what US intelligence says. The hardest part of a nuclear program is getting enough weapons grade fissile material to make one. Once they have it at 60%, it is not a huge leap to go to 90% for what is needed for a nuclear weapon.

Once they have the uranium enriched they can start a weapons program to finish it the timelines to finish a weapon is a few weeks to a few months.

Our intelligence can be correct but in the big picture, it does not matter. They are working towards a weapon by working on the hardest part now.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.
Forward deployment of bombs is not unheard of by any means. I suspect those bombs are closer than most people realize,and that two B2‘s are already sitting in the region waiting for orders.
Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.
 
One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?
The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.
The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.
The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.
Forward deployment of bombs is not unheard of by any means. I suspect those bombs are closer than most people realize,and that two B2‘s are already sitting in the region waiting for orders.
Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.
Location is just a coincidence? Ha ha
 

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