Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (2 Viewers)

[Mister CIA]

One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?

The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.

The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.

The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.

Forward deployment of bombs is not unheard of by any means. I suspect those bombs are closer than most people realize,and that two B2‘s are already sitting in the region waiting for orders.

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

Had some friends stationed there back in the day. Talk about a desolate locatIon.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This seemed like a pretty likely outcome after Tehran was ordered to evacuate
Is this not close to surrendering when you leave the country?

Israel hits Iran nuclear site and kills Oct 7 mastermind: live updates

LIVE UPDATES: Israel has killed an October 7 mastermind in its latest wave of strikes against Iran, a day after Tehran said it would not negotiate over its nuclear programme.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Iran plunges into darkness and the leaders have fled or leaving immediately

 

[KarmaPolice]

One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?

The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.

The MOAB's are also useless in this case. They are airbust bombs used against surface targets.

The bunker busters are what is required to get to the nuclear facility in Iran. I'm doubtful the US would hand those over to the Israeli's, I'm not sure the Israeli's have the platform to use them? Anyhow, we have B-2 bombers enroute, so I'm guessing that will be the delivery system used when/if they are dropped.

As for MoP's question, I don't know. probably some nuclear fallout but that stuff would be buried deep so guessing minimal makes it to the atmosphere. The alleged enriched uranium the Iranian's have is supposedly on the move. Also guessing it won't be left at the nuclear facility.

The bunker buster is a 30,000 pound bomb with the only platform capable of using it is the B-2. It is us or bust.

It is a good thing for Isreal we trust their intelligence over ours then. Perfect excuse for us to be drawn into another war in the ME.

It is pretty much a known fact that they have enriched to 60%. There is no civilian use reason for that- it is the road towards a weapon. The amount of investment that they have made into a 'civilian nuclear program' outweighs the benefits of one. And absolutely no reason to enrich to 60%- again, a cost that would be needless for civilian use.

They do not need an active weapons program now which is what US intelligence says. The hardest part of a nuclear program is getting enough weapons grade fissile material to make one. Once they have it at 60%, it is not a huge leap to go to 90% for what is needed for a nuclear weapon.

Once they have the uranium enriched they can start a weapons program to finish it the timelines to finish a weapon is a few weeks to a few months.

Our intelligence can be correct but in the big picture, it does not matter. They are working towards a weapon by working on the hardest part now.

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

 

[General Malaise]

Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: inside the spy dossier that led Israel to war

WHEN ISRAEL launched its war on Iran on June 13th it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. That evidence galvanised Israel’s own security establishment to support an attack now. It has been shown to America and other Western partners, presumably playing an important role in their ongoing decision-making over whether to support or even join the war. The Economist has not seen the material directly, but has gained exclusive insights from an authoritative source, giving a view of Israel’s dossiers, as shared with its allies, and the claims they make over enriched uranium and the speeding-up of Iran’s programme. Some of the details are already known; some are new.

We understand that the information presented by Israel includes a detailed account of a recent, more urgent, push by Iranian scientists towards “weaponisation”, or the creation of an explosive nuclear device. The dossier provides two key pieces of reported evidence for this claim. The first is that an Iranian scientific team has squirrelled away a quantity of nuclear material, of unclear enrichment status, that is unknown to the monitors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN watchdog (on June 9th the IAEA assessed Iran had official stockpiles of over 400kg of highly enriched uranium). The second piece of reported evidence is that the scientists have accelerated their work and were about to meet commanders of Iran’s missile corps, apparently to prepare for the future “mating” of a nuclear warhead with a missile.

Much of Iran’s previous dabbling with research and activity related to nuclear weapons was in the public domain already. The IAEA has published several reports documenting this, drawn in part from intelligence supplied by Israel and other countries. In 2018 a team at Harvard University also published their own analysis of Iranian documents purloined by Israel. Taken together, these sources described a broad and sustained Iranian effort towards making a uranium core for a bomb, the explosives required to implode that core in order to cause a chain reaction and a programme to place a spherical payload onto Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. In a report published on May 31st, the IAEA noted that in 2003 Iran had planned to conduct what the Institute for Science and International Security, a think-tank, calls a “cold test”—a simulated nuclear weapon which uses natural or depleted uranium rather than weapons-grade uranium.

Israel’s intelligence assessments repeat some of this information. They allege that a cohort of Iranian scientists have been working on overt and covert weapons-related research for years. This effort was originally part of Iran’s formal nuclear-weapons research programme, known as AMAD, that it shut down in 2003, probably because it feared an American attack. The scientists’ ongoing work is thought to be carried out under Iran’s Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (also known by its Farsi acronym, SPND), under the cover of activity in fields like covid-19 vaccines and laser technology. One of a small number of non-scientists who were aware of the work was Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, who as chief of staff of Iran’s military had oversight of both the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

But the Israeli intelligence dossiers also contain information that, if correct, is genuinely new. They suggest that roughly six years ago the scientists formed a secret “Special Progress Group”, under the auspices of the former AMAD director, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. This group’s aim was to prepare the way for a much quicker weaponisation process, if and when a decision was made by Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to rush for a bomb. Mr Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by Israel in November 2020. On June 13th in the first hours of the war, the Israeli government published slides describing this backstory. But we have been told that it also shared further assessments with allies that suggest the Special Progress Group stepped up its research at the end of last year. Iran had a new incentive to advance to a bomb. It was reeling from the limited impact of its missile attacks on Israel, and the depletion of its air defences by Israeli strikes in October 2024. And it was facing the collapse of its proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in Gaza and Lebanon.

Lastly, Israel’s intelligence states that a meeting had been scheduled between the scientists and commanders of the IRGC’s air force, who are in charge of ballistic missiles. The information shared by Israel with its allies argues this proposed meeting was a rubicon, with the missile chiefs being let in on the secret for the first time, suggesting in turn that planning for the “mating” process of a nuclear device to a missile warhead was about to begin. Iran had done some of this work in the past—in 2011 the IAEA cited claims that Iran had done computer modelling studies to see how a “spherical payload”, such as a warhead, would stand up to the stresses of being launched on a ballistic missile. Miniaturising and mating a warhead to a missile are highly complex tasks that could still take Iran a substantial time to master.

Israel’s secret war inside Iran

How Israel’s security services pulled off parallel operations combining the work of its military intelligence arm Aman with the foreign spy service Mossad into such an effective assault may never fully become public. But early hints are trickling out — some from authorised leaks aiming to embarrass Iran, others from people familiar with the operations speaking to the Financial Times on the condition of anonymity.
They describe a sprawling, multiyear operation that leaned on every possible asset from which Israeli intelligence could draw — commercial satellites, hacked phones, deep-cover agents recruited locally, covert warehouses to assemble drones and even miniaturised weapons systems fitted into everyday vehicles.

The goal, the people said, was to create a densely populated bank of targets to take out in the first hours of a military operation. One called it the Israeli version of “shock and awe”; another said it aimed to embrace the “audacious”.
A former Israeli official described the project as the result of “millions of dollars and years of efforts” to address what Israel considers an existential threat. “When you work for so many years, investing everything you have — human intelligence, open source intelligence, money — you eventually get an outcome” like this, they said.
In the run-up to the assault, Aman identified so-called centres of gravity to focus on, such as firepower hubs and the nuclear programme. It cross-referenced thousands of intelligence sources, and by March of this year had started to populate the target bank.
In a clue to how these targets may have been tracked, a technical team in the military was consulted last October about how it had monitored Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hizbollah, who Israel had killed days earlier. Their sophisticated, nearly automated system had produced with near certainty his location once every 24 hours.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

China sends mystery transport planes into Iran

A day after Israel attacked Iran on Friday, a cargo plane took off from China. The next day, a second plane departed from a coastal city. Then on Monday, yet another departed, this time from Shanghai – three flights in three days.
Data showed that on each flight, the plane flew westward along northern China, crossing into Kazakhstan, then south into Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – and then falling off the radar as it neared Iran.
To add to the mystery, flight plans indicated a final destination of Luxembourg, but the aircraft appeared to have never flown near European skies.
There is concern over what might have been sent from China in the direction of Iran as Tehran’s war with Israel rages on.
Aviation experts have noted that the type of plane used, Boeing 747 freighters, are commonly used for transporting military equipment and weapons, and hired to fly government contract orders.
“These cargos cannot but generate a lot of interest because of the expectation that China might do something to help Iran,” said Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter who specialises in China’s relations with the Middle East and North Africa.

https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1935463527206236283

(Reuters) - Asked if Russia was ready to provide Iran with modern weapons to defend itself against Israeli strikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin said a strategic partnership treaty signed with Tehran in January did not envisage military cooperation.

Israeli military says it has degraded Iran’s ability to launch large barrages of ballistic missiles

The Israeli military assesses that it has significantly degraded Iran’s ability to fire large barrages of missiles toward Israel, according to an Israeli military official.

Iran is now firing smaller barrages of missiles following six days of Israeli airstrikes that have destroyed large numbers of ballistic missile launchers, disrupted the Iranian military’s command structure and sent Iran scrambling to move its missile assets further east, the official told CNN.

The latest Iranian ballistic missile launch at Israel on Wednesday evening consisted of a single missile, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

The Israeli military has now destroyed approximately 40% of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, the official said.

Israel has also killed senior Iranian commanders responsible for air defense, which the official said has disrupted Iran’s ability to effectively coordinate its missile launches.

And with Israeli jets now operating freely over the skies of western Iran following strikes to air defense assets, Iran has sought to move many of its ballistic missile launchers east.

The Israeli military has also actively disrupted Iranian missile launches in progress. “When we see them, we fire at them,” the Israeli military official said.

Still, Israel does not know whether Iran’s capabilities have been permanently degraded and that Iran won’t soon again be able to resume larger barrages.

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/1935470889602101444

The U.S. military has moved some assets from bases in the Middle East that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack, two officials tell Reuters. W/
@phildstewart

https://x.com/GeoPoliticJosh/status/1935230318933631377

The evacuation of aircraft at Al Udeid airbase in Qatar is now visually confirmed. Satellite photography confirms the departure of all non-sheltered aircraft.

The base is empty.

European Foreign Ministers to Meet With Iran’s Araghchi in Geneva on Friday

The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany and the EU's foreign policy chief will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday afternoon in Geneva for what could be significant talks. The meeting comes as Iran has signaled it is looking for a way out of the conflict with Israel. “The aim is to discuss the latest developments and urge Iran to return to the negotiating table,” a European official said.

Israeli special forces raid a possibility:

Israeli officials fear that if Fordow survives the war, Iran's nuclear program will too.

One could be a risky commando raid. Israeli special forces conducted such an operation last September, albeit on a smaller scale, when they destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives.
Now that Israel has full control of Iran's air space and has dealt a heavy blow to Iran's military, that option appears less extreme than it otherwise would.
A U.S. official said the Israelis told the Trump administration that while they may not be able to reach deep enough into the mountain with bombs, they may "do it with humans."

Interesting read (if true): Khamenei may be fed false data about war, could lead to IDF blunders, longer war - exclusive

 

[Chadstroma]

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along.

When it comes to Iran and nukes... no amount of time is ok with me. There are few other nations that would be as dangerous to have a nuclear weapon than Iran.

 

[nightmare]

Governments in Public, "yeah, Israel we don't have the intel to support your actions".
Governments in Private. "YEAH, hell yeah".

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Something that is bothering me about the news flashes on the TV is that some say Iran was weeks away from making a nuclear bomb...OK
Why did they wait until the last minute to start doing this campaign?
And then scare everyone by saying they were just a few days/weeks from...

I hope the people of Iran will rise up and see this as a chance for them to take their country back
I'm sure countries would step forward to help them get on the right path for long term prosperity if there is a regime change and free elections
Just stop sponsoring terrorism and attacks on Israel, it's not that hard

Am I to understand that if Oct 7th did not happen and Iran had just played nice that later this month they would have a nuclear weapon potentially?
Seems like a terrible mistake on their part if they were this close all along

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It is pretty much a known fact that they have enriched to 60%. There is no civilian use reason for that- it is the road towards a weapon. The amount of investment that they have made into a 'civilian nuclear program' outweighs the benefits of one. And absolutely no reason to enrich to 60%- again, a cost that would be needless for civilian use.

They do not need an active weapons program now which is what US intelligence says. The hardest part of a nuclear program is getting enough weapons grade fissile material to make one. Once they have it at 60%, it is not a huge leap to go to 90% for what is needed for a nuclear weapon.

Once they have the uranium enriched they can start a weapons program to finish it the timelines to finish a weapon is a few weeks to a few months.

Our intelligence can be correct but in the big picture, it does not matter. They are working towards a weapon by working on the hardest part now.

Thanks Chad, this was a strong post

 

[fatness]

They do not need an active weapons program now which is what US intelligence says. The hardest part of a nuclear program is getting enough weapons grade fissile material to make one. Once they have it at 60%, it is not a huge leap to go to 90% for what is needed for a nuclear weapon.

Once they have the uranium enriched they can start a weapons program to finish it the timelines to finish a weapon is a few weeks to a few months.

They could produce 1 or 2 weapons per year, if they ever get to that point, according to their goals.

Among the documents were detailed blueprints of Fordow and information on its objectives: To produce weapons-grade uranium, as part of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, for at least one or two nuclear weapons per year.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/middleeast/iran-fordow-nuclear-site-latam-hnk-intl

 

[fatness]

I'm pretty sure a large majority of the rest of the World doesn't want Iran having nuclear weapons and is on-board with either destroying their capabilities outright or forcing them to the table to negotiate a halt of their program. Most of the Iranian people don't even like their own government.

Iran had already negotiated a limit to their nuclear program, and was in the process of limiting it.

The dangers posed by Fordow were largely tamed as a result of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the so-called “Iran nuclear deal,” that required Iran to remove two-thirds of the centrifuges inside the facility, along with all nuclear material, after the facility was banned from any such work.

That, however, changed when the US pulled out of the CPOA in 2018.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/middleeast/iran-fordow-nuclear-site-latam-hnk-intl

Hopefully here in 2025 we can again get them back to the table and agreed-upon limits to their nuclear use, like we did years earlier.

 

[fatness]

Information about bunker buster bombs.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/18/politics/bunker-buster-weapon-explained-dg

It has “really thick, hard shell,” Dahlgren explained, in order for the explosives to withstand the impact of the ground and penetrate to the depths it’s intended to reach. “There’s the shell and there’s the explosive in the fuse – the explosive needs to be robust enough to not detonate without being fused, the shell needs to be strong enough to go down that far and to hit that hard and to impart enough energy to even go down that far. And then the fuse needs to be hard enough to survive all that, and smart enough to know when to blow up,” Dahlgren said. “It’s a really complex program.” The exact size of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is unclear; CNN has reported that that its halls are estimated to be 80 to 90 meters underground. A UK-based think tank, the Royal United Services Institute, said the MOP may not even be able to reach Fordow, saying in a recent report that it would “likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility.” Fordow could be at the “the edge” of the MOP’s capabilities with only one munition, said Dahlgren.

With diagram.

 

[fatness]

More information about Iran's Fordow nuclear site:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/middleeast/iran-fordow-nuclear-site-latam-hnk-intl

 

[fatness]

Interesting information and opinion from a former Energy Secretary:

First of all, I think the Israeli strike really has put the United States in a difficult position, in the sense that the United States has the only capacity to at least potentially eliminate Fordow, the underground enrichment site. And, without doing that, frankly, the campaign to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, even temporarily, obviously would not be at all complete. On the other hand, if the United States were to carry through with that threat to bomb Fordow, A, we would be involved in the war, quite clearly, and, B, we cannot bomb the program out of existence. It will just revive in some period of time. It might be years, but it would revive, unless the political regime in Tehran were to totally change in a favorable direction.

Having weapons-grade uranium is the most challenging part of making a nuclear weapon, but it's not the entire weapon. So what the intelligence community statement is about is what it would take then to go from the material to, I would say, an advanced nuclear weapon that could be seated on and delivered by a missile. Given the material, I think Iran would go for a much cruder nuclear weapon, one that could be delivered not on a missile, but by other means, trucks, ships, et cetera. It's been shown that they have a hard time delivering weapons on Israel, certainly weapons of any major size. So I think that's a bigger challenge for Iran. How would they actually deliver a weapon? Given the material they have, they could pretty easily covertly develop and put together a crude weapon. But, again, they have to be able to deliver it. And that's not trivial.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

Netanyahu has been banging this bomb Iran campaign for decades.

Trump cancelling the agreement in 2018 was a move that makes this week happen. Iran was complying with the agreement. Why would Iran make any agreement now when it will just be cancelled again on a whim? Trust is important. Even among enemies.

My guess is Bibi just went for it, damn the consequences and Washington has been just figuring out how to make a public face of acceptability once they were caught on the hop.
Once you think starving little kids is acceptable, STARTING a war isn’t much worse.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Something that is bothering me about the news flashes on the TV is that some say Iran was weeks away from making a nuclear bomb...OK
Why did they wait until the last minute to start doing this campaign?
And then scare everyone by saying they were just a few days/weeks from...

I hope the people of Iran will rise up and see this as a chance for them to take their country back
I'm sure countries would step forward to help them get on the right path for long term prosperity if there is a regime change and free elections
Just stop sponsoring terrorism and attacks on Israel, it's not that hard

Am I to understand that if Oct 7th did not happen and Iran had just played nice that later this month they would have a nuclear weapon potentially?
Seems like a terrible mistake on their part if they were this close all along

See Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Similar scenario.

 

[tymarsas]

It is pretty much a known fact that they have enriched to 60%. There is no civilian use reason for that- it is the road towards a weapon.

Iran hasn't been hiding this fact. They've been telling everyone that they are enriching uranium to these levels and cooperating with the international inspectors.

I think that one of the reasons that they've been doing it to force the US back to the negotiating table in hopes of getting the sanctions removed. It was mostly working, but they overplayed their hand.

 

[massraider]

I hope the people of Iran will rise up and see this as a chance for them to take their country back
I'm sure countries would step forward to help them get on the right path for long term prosperity if there is a regime change and free elections

If the Iranian people have read a history book, they will know the exact opposite of this is true. They would know that elected officials in other countries lose their enthusiasm for spending money and resources very quickly once the rah rah let's blow stuff up rhetoric dies down.

Someone with a popular podcast goes viral saying, hey, why are we sending millions/billions to this country I don't care about, when people are suffering back here in the star spangled US of A?

Does that imaginary scenario of mine sound like a wild and crazy longshot?

 

[massraider]

I have no idea if the new Intel from Israel is true or not, and the US won't care if it's true. Israel isn't going to lose support if it turns out they made it up.

I assume that Israel saw that the Assad regime fell in Syria in a short time partly because Russia is busy with its own war. Iran will most likely be the 2nd country to lose its long term leadership because Russia invaded Ukraine.

Unintended consequences.

Although I'm sure there are smart Middle East/Russia observers who pointed out that this would be possible.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/TalaRamadan/status/1935633100702097482

Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi confirms Friday meeting in Geneva with European officials - Iran state media @Reuters

Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War.

Now, as the war drags on, Israel is firing interceptors faster than it can produce them. That has raised questions within the Israeli security establishment about whether the country will run low on air defense missiles before Iran uses up its ballistic arsenal, according to eight current and former officials.
Already, Israel’s military has had to conserve its use of interceptors and is giving greater priority to the defense of densely populated areas and strategic infrastructure, according to the officials. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely.
Interceptors are “not grains of rice,” said Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav, who commanded Israel’s air defense system until 2021 and still serves in the military reserve. “The number is finite.”
“If a missile is supposed to hit refineries in Haifa, it’s clear that it’s more important to intercept that missile than one that will hit the Negev desert,” General Kochav said. Conserving Israel’s interceptors is “a challenge,” he added. “We can make it, but it’s a challenge.”

At the start of the war, some Israeli officials estimated that Iran had roughly 2,000 ballistic missiles. Between a third and a half of those have been used up, Israeli officials say — either because Iran has fired them at Israel, or because Israel has struck the caches where they were stored. Iran has begun to fire far fewer missiles in its barrages, perhaps aware that it risks running out of munitions. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment.

Israeli Air Dominance Means It Is Shooting Down Iranian Missiles Before They Launch

Israel’s ability to spot, foil and intercept launches is likely forcing the Iranians to be more careful about moving missile launchers around, because moving makes them more vulnerable to attack, said Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser and fellow at JINSA.

Fabian Hinz, research fellow for missile technologies and UAVs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that Iran is now having to fire missiles at Israel from farther away, which means they are relying mainly on their liquid-propellant weapons that have sufficient 1,000-mile range to hit Israel.

These liquid propellant ballistic missiles have a number of disadvantages compared with solid propellant missiles, according to Hinz, which is why Iran has been focusing its work on developing longer-range solid propellant missiles in recent years.

The biggest disadvantage is they take a considerable amount of time—perhaps a couple of hours—to fuel up, which means Iran can’t fire a quick barrage of missiles, as they can with solid propellant missiles. That leaves them more exposed to Israeli strikes.

Israel vows to hold Iran's leader accountable for "war crimes" after Iranian missile slams into hospital

An Iranian missile slammed into the main hospital in southern Israel early Thursday, wounding several people, causing significant damage, and drawing a swift vow from Israeli leaders of intensified attacks on Iran's military and "government targets."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/19/world/iran-israel-trump-news/3565ba76-f594-5021-8d97-775fdaf83f5b?smid=url-share

Smoke is still billowing and there’s a potent smell of fire here at the Soroka Medical Center after the Iranian missile strike. An entire floor of the building that was hit has completely collapsed, and the surrounding structures have shattered windows.

https://x.com/jongambrellAP/status/1935640694540075368

APNewsAlert: BEERSHEBA, Israel (@AP) — Israel’s defense minister says #Iran’s supreme leader 'cannot continue to exist' after latest Iranian missile attack.

Israeli Strikes Kill Civilians Across Iran

An 8-year-old girl who loved dancing in a red dress at her dentist’s office. A 28-year-old national equestrian champion. A poet one week away from her 24th birthday. A graphic designer who worked at National Geographic. Grandparents in their 80s.
All are among the civilians killed during Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
Israel has said it does not target Iranian civilians, but hundreds have died in the violence. Every day since the war began, a new face, a new name, a new story of a life that ended violently and abruptly has emerged. The Ministry of Health has not updated casualty numbers since Sunday, when it said at least 224 people had been killed and nearly 2,000 injured, including women and children. Those figures are expected to grow in the coming days.
In interviews with more than 50 residents of Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahvaz, Mashhad, Sanandaj, Amol, Ghazvin, Semnan, Karaj, Neishabour, and Tabriz, doctors, families and friends described the toll of the strikes. The New York Times also reviewed scores of videos, photos and testimonies documenting civilian casualties, injuries and the destruction of residential buildings.
The Israel Defense Forces have said the attacks on Iran are targeted assassinations of military commanders, government officials and nuclear scientists. But missiles and drones have also hit high-rise buildings and multistory apartment complexes where civilians also reside. Dr. Hossein Kermanpour, the spokesman for the Ministry of Health, said 90 percent of casualties were civilians, not military.

Four physicians, including the director of a major hospital in Tehran, said that emergency rooms were overwhelmed. The Ministry of Health announced on Monday that all medical staff members around the country were required to remain in their posts because of the acute need.
“This is unlike anything we’ve experienced before,” said Ali, a 43-year-old engineer in Tehran and father of two small children who asked that his last name not be published for fear of retribution from Iranian officials for speaking publicly. He said deaths and casualties were hitting closer to home everyday and that a friend’s sister had been killed when a building collapsed on her after a targeted strike.

 

[nysfl2]

One of my concerns is if the US decided to either drop these bunker bombs or mother of all bombs or hand them to Israel, what about nuclear fallout or a Chernobyl type event unfolds and like a Saharan Dust storm, ends up with some of it floating over here in the atmosphere...am I not thinking clearly here?

The MOAB's are not nuclear.
If a Chernobyl event takes place I'm pretty sure the wind is in charge of where the floating radioactive dust goes.

As deep underground as the Iranians have dug I think most of the radiation stays underground.

Uranium isn’t particularly radioactive. It’s found naturally in the soil. Long half-lives mean low specific activity (U-235 is slightly worse than natural uranium, so the enriched stuff is slightly worse but not significantly).

It’s the highly radioactive fission products that are created when the bomb explodes that are really dangerous.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

Netanyahu has been banging this bomb Iran campaign for decades.

Trump cancelling the agreement in 2018 was a move that makes this week happen. Iran was complying with the agreement. Why would Iran make any agreement now when it will just be cancelled again on a whim? Trust is important. Even among enemies.

My guess is Bibi just went for it, damn the consequences and Washington has been just figuring out how to make a public face of acceptability once they were caught on the hop.
Once you think starving little kids is acceptable, STARTING a war isn’t much worse.

I have no idea if the new Intel from Israel is true or not, and the US won't care if it's true. Israel isn't going to lose support if it turns out they made it up.

I assume that Israel saw that the Assad regime fell in Syria in a short time partly because Russia is busy with its own war. Iran will most likely be the 2nd country to lose its long term leadership because Russia invaded Ukraine.

Unintended consequences.

Although I'm sure there are smart Middle East/Russia observers who pointed out that this would be possible.

The 2nd bolded from massraider is absolutely true (at least at the levels of our administrations running the country), and it also ties back to JML's comment. We already back them 100% with no consequences while other things worse than bombing Iran is going on. Why would they lose support now, and what exactly would they have to do to lose said unconditional support from us?

 

[Desert_Power]

I have no idea if the new Intel from Israel is true or not, and the US won't care if it's true. Israel isn't going to lose support if it turns out they made it up.

I assume that Israel saw that the Assad regime fell in Syria in a short time partly because Russia is busy with its own war. Iran will most likely be the 2nd country to lose its long term leadership because Russia invaded Ukraine.

Unintended consequences.

Although I'm sure there are smart Middle East/Russia observers who pointed out that this would be possible.

Read something that made this point. Russia is pinned down by its Ukraine folly. Iran's proxies also pretty decimated. Good time for Israel to strike with limited blowback. Also a situation where it may be rational for Iran to accelerate their program as suggested by Israeli intel.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

Netanyahu has been banging this bomb Iran campaign for decades.

Trump cancelling the agreement in 2018 was a move that makes this week happen. Iran was complying with the agreement. Why would Iran make any agreement now when it will just be cancelled again on a whim? Trust is important. Even among enemies.

My guess is Bibi just went for it, damn the consequences and Washington has been just figuring out how to make a public face of acceptability once they were caught on the hop.
Once you think starving little kids is acceptable, STARTING a war isn’t much worse.

You don't know that. Frankly neither do I.

In 2018, the Mossad reportedly stole nuclear secrets. It showed Iran had two secret facilities and were breaking the agreements.

Not sure who to believe, but don't present assumptions as facts, please.

 

[beer 30]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the strength to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

 

[thecatch]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

There should definitely be many views represented in any strategic discussion, but I'm never going to shed a tear because Tulsi Gabbard is being sidelined from important deliberations.

 

[beer 30]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

There should definitely be many views represented in any strategic discussion, but I'm never going to shed a tear because Tulsi Gabbard is being sidelined from important deliberations.

Be that as it may, she is the current Director of National Intelligence. Copilot tells me that's a fairly senior position that should probably have a seat at the table for this little kerfuffle

The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) oversees the entire U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), which is made up of 18 organizations. These include:

• Independent agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
• Department of Defense components such as the National Security Agency (NSA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
• Intelligence arms of other departments, including:
• Department of State – Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)
• Department of Justice – FBI’s Intelligence Branch
• Department of Homeland Security – Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A)
• Department of Energy – Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
• Department of the Treasury – Office of Intelligence and Analysis
• Department of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Marine Corps – each has its own intelligence component

All of these entities report to the DNI for coordination and integration of national intelligence efforts.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

There should definitely be many views represented in any strategic discussion, but I'm never going to shed a tear because Tulsi Gabbard is being sidelined from important deliberations.

Be that as it may, she is the current Director of National Intelligence. Copilot tells me that's a fairly senior position that should probably have a seat at the table for this little kerfuffle

The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) oversees the entire U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), which is made up of 18 organizations. These include:

• Independent agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
• Department of Defense components such as the National Security Agency (NSA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
• Intelligence arms of other departments, including:
• Department of State – Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)
• Department of Justice – FBI’s Intelligence Branch
• Department of Homeland Security – Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A)
• Department of Energy – Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
• Department of the Treasury – Office of Intelligence and Analysis
• Department of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Marine Corps – each has its own intelligence component

All of these entities report to the DNI for coordination and integration of national intelligence efforts.

Correct. I understand what catch is saying and I agree in the sense I thought she was a terrible candidate for that position in the first place. I just think it's also bananas that somebody in that important of a position is not invited to the table when we are on the brink of officially going to war with Iran. That tells me people are largely in their positions just to agree with everything (not credentials or expertise), and when they don't they outlive their usefulness to the administration.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the strength to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

It is sad that it has come to this, but I am at that place too. I was going to suggest a podcast and link that (NYTs had some articles and an episode of The Daily that talked about some reasons that could have changed the tone in the administration during the last 2 weeks), but didn't because of not wanting arguments about sources. I get that we are supposed to link sources, but often the argument about them destroyed some great conversations in other threads. I also listen to way too many podcasts and interviews, and sometimes that info isn't easy to link or source.

 

[Sand]

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

You're assuming that the Iranian government, who are hardline Islamic zealots, wouldn't pull the trigger anyway.

 

[KarmaPolice]

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

You're assuming that the Iranian government, who are hardline Islamic zealots, wouldn't pull the trigger anyway.

Yes, we are all making assumptions because we don't know for sure what they would do. We also don't seem to be able to trust what anybody involved is saying.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Countries evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel

Countries around the world are taking measures to evacuate their citizens from Israel and Iran as the two nations enter the seventh day of their air war and airspace in the region remains closed.

www.reuters.com

UNITED STATES​

The United States is working to evacuate U.S. citizens wishing to leave Israel by arranging flights and cruise ship departures, U.S. ambassador Mike Huckabee said in a post on X on Wednesday.


This article lists dozens of countries who have been able to get their citizens out of Iran and Isreal. IMO it's pretty messed up that we are just working on it.

 

[beer 30]

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

The Fordow facility is estimated to be buried about 300' (91 meters) below the surface so it would take multiples of these to maybe breach the facility assuming you get them to drop where you want. As @Chadstroma mentioned upthread, only the B-2 bomber is equipped to deliver these bombs. Interesting stuff.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

The Fordow facility is estimated to be buried about 300' (91 meters) below the surface so it would take multiples of these to maybe breach the facility assuming you get them to drop where you want. As @Chadstroma mentioned upthread, only the B-2 bomber is equipped to deliver these bombs. Interesting stuff.

My question is how many would it take to get the results we want?. It would be an even bigger disaster to go down this road and not completely destroy the target.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

There should definitely be many views represented in any strategic discussion, but I'm never going to shed a tear because Tulsi Gabbard is being sidelined from important deliberations.

Be that as it may, she is the current Director of National Intelligence. Copilot tells me that's a fairly senior position that should probably have a seat at the table for this little kerfuffle

The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) oversees the entire U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), which is made up of 18 organizations. These include:

• Independent agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
• Department of Defense components such as the National Security Agency (NSA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
• Intelligence arms of other departments, including:
• Department of State – Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)
• Department of Justice – FBI’s Intelligence Branch
• Department of Homeland Security – Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A)
• Department of Energy – Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
• Department of the Treasury – Office of Intelligence and Analysis
• Department of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Marine Corps – each has its own intelligence component

All of these entities report to the DNI for coordination and integration of national intelligence efforts.

Without turning this any more political than it already is, my presumption is a lot of the current administration's appointments to these visible leadership positions are largely for appearances, name recognition, how they perform on news shows, etc., and that we have actual career people with real experience behind closed doors doing the real work and making recommendations.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Two words; Diego Garcia.

B-2's were moved there sometime in late March/early April.

I'm Mr. Opportunity and I'm knocking

Are you saying that Tulsi and our intelligence apparatus don't know these things? I fully understand your point and the big picture. What I am saying is that 2 months ago our intelligence testified that Iran wasn't close (I believe it was 3 years) and at least it APPEARED that we were actually talking to them in negotiations. That was the situation. Now, despite more updates from our intelligence, we are seemingly going to war because Israel said they are close and/or they were going to bomb Iran regardless. Bibi has also been saying for decades that Iran is close to having the bomb. To me that tells me we either trust Israel's intelligence over our own, or somehow we were talked into a war we didn't want, or this was just the plan all along (and it's about nation building and perpetual war).

I read last night where Tulsi is out on this operation. I won't bother posting the article because it was the Daily Mail and I don't have the to argue with all the folks who will point out that isn't a reliable news source but I treat them like the guys from Men In Black and the National Enquirer. Yea it's a lot of hyperbole but there is usually a shred of truth. Her statement from earlier this week about nuclear holocaust apparently went against the grain so she has been on the outside looking in during this crisis. I don't think that's a good idea. You need dissent in the room when you are talking about bombing another nation.

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

I remember back in 2003 when I was fully on board with the saber rattling leading up to the invasion and you said then that we should pump the brakes. Still caught up in the USA USA USA from the 9/11 attacks, I was fully on board with attacking Iraq. All these years latter I'd like to say for the record, I was wrong and you were correct. Should have listened then, absolutely listening now.

I think this is a terrible idea for the US to get involved in.

There should definitely be many views represented in any strategic discussion, but I'm never going to shed a tear because Tulsi Gabbard is being sidelined from important deliberations.

Be that as it may, she is the current Director of National Intelligence. Copilot tells me that's a fairly senior position that should probably have a seat at the table for this little kerfuffle

The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) oversees the entire U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), which is made up of 18 organizations. These include:

• Independent agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
• Department of Defense components such as the National Security Agency (NSA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
• Intelligence arms of other departments, including:
• Department of State – Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)
• Department of Justice – FBI’s Intelligence Branch
• Department of Homeland Security – Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A)
• Department of Energy – Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
• Department of the Treasury – Office of Intelligence and Analysis
• Department of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Marine Corps – each has its own intelligence component

All of these entities report to the DNI for coordination and integration of national intelligence efforts.

Without turning this any more political than it already is, my presumption is a lot of the current administration's appointments to these visible leadership positions are largely for appearances, name recognition, how they perform on news shows, etc., and that we have actual career people with real experience behind closed doors doing the real work and making recommendations.

Thank you. Let's leave it at that for the politics.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

Netanyahu has been banging this bomb Iran campaign for decades.

Trump cancelling the agreement in 2018 was a move that makes this week happen. Iran was complying with the agreement. Why would Iran make any agreement now when it will just be cancelled again on a whim? Trust is important. Even among enemies.

My guess is Bibi just went for it, damn the consequences and Washington has been just figuring out how to make a public face of acceptability once they were caught on the hop.
Once you think starving little kids is acceptable, STARTING a war isn’t much worse.

You don't know that. Frankly neither do I.

In 2018, the Mossad reportedly stole nuclear secrets. It showed Iran had two secret facilities and were breaking the agreements.

Not sure who to believe, but don't present assumptions as facts, please.

Well the IAEA thought so. Even after the deal was cancelled by Trump

Iran is complying with nuclear deal restrictions: IAEA report

Iran has remained within the main restrictions on its nuclear activities imposed by a 2015 deal with major powers, a confidential report by the U.N. atomic watchdog indicated on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Iran was nowhere near having a bomb in 2018.

That doesnt matter now. The damage was done by just tearing up the agreement without putting another one in place. The trust was gone too.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

You're assuming that the Iranian government, who are hardline Islamic zealots, wouldn't pull the trigger anyway.

Id put Iranian pride at their Persian culture at a par with Israel. Israel has the jump start on any nuclear interaction.
Were Iran stupid enough to fire first, they would be wiped off the map. Iranian people arent known for being stupid.

I mean Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have Nuclear weapons. Entirely unstable regimes
Pakistan shares a border with Iran.
Iran didnt fire first here. Are they just supposed to take being bombed by a clear aggressor?

 

[Sand]

Id put Iranian pride at their Persian culture at a par with Israel. Israel has the jump start on any nuclear interaction.
Were Iran stupid enough to fire first, they would be wiped off the map. Iranian people arent known for being stupid.

Two different things - hardline Islamic government and a Persian people who have a culture that really doesn't conform to the views and philosophy of the government. Most importantly, the people aren't running this program, the government is.

 

[Desert_Power]

Countries evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel

Countries around the world are taking measures to evacuate their citizens from Israel and Iran as the two nations enter the seventh day of their air war and airspace in the region remains closed.

www.reuters.com

UNITED STATES​

The United States is working to evacuate U.S. citizens wishing to leave Israel by arranging flights and cruise ship departures, U.S. ambassador Mike Huckabee said in a post on X on Wednesday.


This article lists dozens of countries who have been able to get their citizens out of Iran and Isreal. IMO it's pretty messed up that we are just working on it.

Was texting with my old roommate from college this week. He and his family have been living in Tel Aviv for a couple of years as his wife does something for the US government there. Sounded like they caught a military flight out yesterday. Was glad to hear.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Countries evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel

Countries around the world are taking measures to evacuate their citizens from Israel and Iran as the two nations enter the seventh day of their air war and airspace in the region remains closed.

www.reuters.com

UNITED STATES​

The United States is working to evacuate U.S. citizens wishing to leave Israel by arranging flights and cruise ship departures, U.S. ambassador Mike Huckabee said in a post on X on Wednesday.


This article lists dozens of countries who have been able to get their citizens out of Iran and Isreal. IMO it's pretty messed up that we are just working on it.

Was texting with my old roommate from college this week. He and his family have been living in Tel Aviv for a couple of years as his wife does something for the US government there. Sounded like they caught a military flight out yesterday. Was glad to hear.

That is good news for sure. Glad they were able to get out.

 

[Desert_Power]

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

The Fordow facility is estimated to be buried about 300' (91 meters) below the surface so it would take multiples of these to maybe breach the facility assuming you get them to drop where you want. As @Chadstroma mentioned upthread, only the B-2 bomber is equipped to deliver these bombs. Interesting stuff.

My question is how many would it take to get the results we want?. It would be an even bigger disaster to go down this road and not completely destroy the target.

Then I guess you're basically pot committed to regime change because you've already declared war. I've gone down a similar rabbit hole as beer on whether these things can even destroy the facility. Seems like a coin flip.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Iran still has advanced missiles, Israeli intelligence official says

Only 65% of the missiles launched by Iran in the last 24 hours were intercepted by the country’s iron dome system versus almost 90% the day before, a senior intelligence official in Israel told NBC News.

“Iran still has very advanced missiles, and they are making use of them,” said the former top level Israeli intelligence official, who still receives daily government briefings.

The official, who is not authorized to speak publicly because of the sensitivity of the information, said that faster Iranian missiles launched in the last day have also given Israel less time to prepare before the projectiles approach their intended targets.

“Until yesterday, we got an early warning of about 10 to 11 minutes before the missiles actually fell. But this morning, it was six or seven minutes. It means that the missiles were probably much faster than the previous ones," the person said. "More importantly, the Iranians do have a navigation system for the final phase of the attack that helps them to be very precise and to attack exactly the targets that they wish, like the hospital today in Beersheba.”

A longtime observer of Iranian activities in the region, the official added that the regime, despite having suffered significant leadership losses when Israel launched its surprise attack last week, still has missile stockpiles that could sustain their retaliatory strikes for long stretches, describing their approach as “strategic patience.”

Arguing that some in Israel and across the region have written off the country’s response ability prematurely, he added that the regime has “the resolve and the ability to continue and to sustain the attacks so we have to be much more careful whenever we speak about the imminent collapse of the regime, which is far from being true.”

U.N. Atomic Agency Chief Unsure of Location of Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium Stockpile

U.N. atomic agency chief Rafael Grossi said the agency has no evidence that Iran has removed its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from Isfahan, but that he can't be sure. Asked whether the material is still at Isfahan, Grossi told Bloomberg TV, "to say safely, I'm not so sure."

"It is stored there. As you can imagine, at a time of war, all nuclear sites are closed. So our inspectors...are not inspecting," Grossi said. "We have not seen anything that would suggest that the stockpile has been moved but of course this might need to be reconfirmed as soon as we have access." If Iran still has control of the stockpile of enriched uranium, it could be significantly easier for it to start a covert nuclear weapons program or kick out inspectors and produce weapons-grade uranium. Iran says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.

Israel's airstrikes aim to break foundations of Khamenei's rule in Iran

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran weakened enough to be forced into fundamental concessions on permanently abandoning its nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile program and its support for militant groups across the region, the sources said.

He also wants to leave Khamenei's government debilitated. The campaign is about "exhausting the regime's ability to project power and maintain internal cohesion," one senior regional official said.

For Iran, there is one key calculation: letting the 86-year-old Khamenei retreat without humiliation, two Iranian sources said. Strip him of dignity or the prospect of survival and he may choose all-out conflict, they added.

If the conflict does escalate, regional officials fear a collapse of Khamenei's government would not lead to democracy but to fragmentation - or worse: a civil war, fuelled by Iran’s marginalized minorities - Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baha'is, Baluchis and Christians - could erupt in a dangerous power vacuum.
"And that," a Gulf source warned, "no one is ready for."

Gulf States Caught off Guard by Speed of Israel’s Iran Attack

With the US now preparing for potential strikes on Iran in the coming days, Gulf states are seriously assessing the possibility the Islamic Republic’s clerical regime falls, and all the chaos that could bring. The seemingly endless conflict that followed the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 and the sectarian warfare and terrorism unleashed by the toppling of Saddam Hussein in Iraq loom large.
“This is what they’ve dreaded and hoped to avoid over successive administrations,” said Barbara Leaf, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs under US President Joe Biden, and now Senior International Policy Adviser at the law firm Arnold & Porter. “They’re right on the front line and at any point they could be deliberately targeted or become inadvertent collateral economic damage.”

Elevated oil prices — which have risen around 10% since last Friday to over $76 barrel — could boost Gulf budgets. But Leaf said that while most states in the region “privately applauded” the significant defeats suffered by Iran’s network of proxy militias since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel, it’s difficult to see them feeling that way now things have escalated so severely.

US airlines suspend flights to Middle East

American Airlines has suspended flights to Doha, Qatar, and United Airlines has suspended its daily flight to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, as they continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1935660858232938668

A former U.S. official told me the MOP bunker-buster was tested twice by the U.S. military during 2024. "It will work", the former official said

https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1935793640401780983

Senior IRGC official: Before the Israeli airstrikes, we transferred all the enriched uranium from the nuclear sites to secret hiding locations.

Talk of Iran's surrender 'a big mistake,' supreme leader's adviser says

Any talk of Iran surrendering was “a big mistake,” according to an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“We do not seek war, but we are passing through a critical stage and must stand firm to defend ourselves and punish aggressors,” Ali Larijani said in an interview on Iranian state television.

https://x.com/jhaboush/status/1935773026479751226

Lebanon’s parliament speaker, a Hezbollah ally, says Lebanon “200% won’t enter” the Iran-Israel conflict because his country would pay the price and has no interest in doing so

 

[thecatch]

Well, you seem to be discounting or ignoring the fact that Israel and US have had several covert/strikes operations to slow down/stop/etc their nuke program for years.

I don't discount that. I'm saying the same PR bait that was used to alarm people in the US several times before this is being used to alarm people in the US now.

How close do you think Iran is to having a functional nuke?

They aren't close. Neither was Iraq.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

Netanyahu has been banging this bomb Iran campaign for decades.

Trump cancelling the agreement in 2018 was a move that makes this week happen. Iran was complying with the agreement. Why would Iran make any agreement now when it will just be cancelled again on a whim? Trust is important. Even among enemies.

My guess is Bibi just went for it, damn the consequences and Washington has been just figuring out how to make a public face of acceptability once they were caught on the hop.
Once you think starving little kids is acceptable, STARTING a war isn’t much worse.

You don't know that. Frankly neither do I.

In 2018, the Mossad reportedly stole nuclear secrets. It showed Iran had two secret facilities and were breaking the agreements.

Not sure who to believe, but don't present assumptions as facts, please.

Well the IAEA thought so. Even after the deal was cancelled by Trump

Iran is complying with nuclear deal restrictions: IAEA report

Iran has remained within the main restrictions on its nuclear activities imposed by a 2015 deal with major powers, a confidential report by the U.N. atomic watchdog indicated on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Iran was nowhere near having a bomb in 2018.

That doesnt matter now. The damage was done by just tearing up the agreement without putting another one in place. The trust was gone too.

This is what bothers me so much about Bibi.
Israel has nukes. No ands, ifs or buts.
IF Iran had nukes, which they dont, sending them Israels way would only be returned in multitudes. The old mutually assured destruction

You're assuming that the Iranian government, who are hardline Islamic zealots, wouldn't pull the trigger anyway.

Id put Iranian pride at their Persian culture at a par with Israel. Israel has the jump start on any nuclear interaction.
Were Iran stupid enough to fire first, they would be wiped off the map. Iranian people arent known for being stupid.

I mean Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have Nuclear weapons. Entirely unstable regimes
Pakistan shares a border with Iran.
Iran didnt fire first here. Are they just supposed to take being bombed by a clear aggressor?

I don't give Iran a pass for using proxy organizations to attack Israel, the U.S., etc.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Iran didnt fire first here. Are they just supposed to take being bombed by a clear aggressor?

Aren't Hezbollah and Hamas Iran proxies? I guess it depends how you look at it but Iran has been attacking Israel for decades now. This thread reminded me of this documentary. Neither the US or Israel (and the rest of the world?) want a nuclear Iran. Are they really that close? I have no idea. We've been hearing about them being close for a long time now.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Iran didnt fire first here. Are they just supposed to take being bombed by a clear aggressor?

Aren't Hezbollah and Hamas Iran proxies? I guess it depends how you look at it but Iran has been attacking Israel for decades now. This thread reminded me of this documentary. Neither the US or Israel (and the rest of the world?) want a nuclear Iran. Are they really that close? I have no idea. We've been hearing about them being close for a long time now.

Theres no doubt there is complexity after complexity involved here.
Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. But they are hardly on an island there.
All goes back to the stupidity of putting Israel where they are now in the first place.
Iran also is where it is due to a stable democracy being toppled by western “influences” in the 50s

Nobody wanted a nuclear North Korea, Pakistan either etc
India didnt start bombing Pakistan in 1998 when they went Nuclear.
They both now have about 170 warheads.

Iran could argue with recent events they NEED nuclear weapons given Netanyahu has them and has been picking fights with Iran for decades. Israel has no interest in peace. Neither does Iran. Great. Now what?

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

If Iran got their hands on a nuclear weapon I don't think they'd bat an eyelash in using them against Israel. They've (the hardliners and zealots) have wanted the destruction of Israel since the 60's.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Iran didnt fire first here. Are they just supposed to take being bombed by a clear aggressor?

Aren't Hezbollah and Hamas Iran proxies? I guess it depends how you look at it but Iran has been attacking Israel for decades now. This thread reminded me of this documentary. Neither the US or Israel (and the rest of the world?) want a nuclear Iran. Are they really that close? I have no idea. We've been hearing about them being close for a long time now.

Unless people are seeing something different, unlike Iraq, they aren't even trying to sell us on where Iran is. We have links in the last page of our intelligence saying they weren't close and even Bibi has said something like they could be months or years away. I haven't seen anything about new developments to their capabilities in the last few weeks.

My question is why did this start the day before we were set to meet with Iran again for more negotiations? They also targeted and killed people who would be at that negotiating table and bragged about it being a tactic so Israel could do this.

I think John's point is, and I mostly agree, that on the world stage this looks like a country who is not compliant with IAEA and has nukes bombing a country that appears to be compliant for maybe having nukes in the future.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

If Iran got their hands on a nuclear weapon I don't think they'd bat an eyelash in using them against Israel. They've (the hardliners and zealots) have wanted the destruction of Israel since the 60's.

Thats fine in rhetoric, but logic says Israel has many more of them to deploy and more of Iran would be wiped off the map than Israel.
No good having power if everyone is dead.
Iran would argue they need them for defence after Israel attacked them. Otherwise Israel will just attack them anytime they like with relatively few repercussions.
You dont think Pakistan wouldnt mind seeing Israel gone too? Israel doesnt say boo to them.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.