Is ADP overrated in redraft leagues? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I'd like to hear form the board before we have the onslaught of seasonal visitors in here. I have talked about this in length with a couple of staffers and I know I am not the only one that thinks he might be overrated. I know you can't just go on recent history but so many surefire RBs in the past have ended up flopping. Now ADP will surely have his big games but last year he was injured down the stretch and that was a big fear of potential owners after he had injuires in college. Do you really pencil him in for 16 games...would 12 be better?

And is Chester Taylor completely overlooked? He's not the starter by any stretch but he will see significant action, and he is only a sprain away from ruinning behind one of the best OL in football.

You either have to take him at the 1.01 or maybe the 1.02. Are there other safer choices on the board or am I overthinking it too much?

 

[bcr8f]

I'd like to hear form the board before we have the onslaught of seasonal visitors in here. I have talked about this in length with a couple of staffers and I know I am not the only one that thinks he might be overrated. I know you can't just go on recent history but so many surefire RBs in the past have ended up flopping. Now ADP will surely have his big games but last year he was injured down the stretch and that was a big fear of potential owners after he had injuires in college. Do you really pencil him in for 16 games...would 12 be better?And is Chester Taylor completely overlooked? He's not the starter by any stretch but he will see significant action, and he is only a sprain away from ruinning behind one of the best OL in football.You either have to take him at the 1.01 or maybe the 1.02. Are there other safer choices on the board or am I overthinking it too much?

All 3 have some issues but it could be argued LT, AP or SJax could be the top pick. In PPR even Westbrook could be. If SJax stays healthy and the line can open some holes he could be the top pick.AP will get more passes out of the backfield and should get 65% of the looks for a D and running team.LT is LT.I think whoever falls to 3 will be the bargain.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Adrian Peterson did show he is deserving of the top spot last year, even in a redraft league. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him with the #1 pick. I do think Chester is a wise investment for ADP owners, and will likely be a relatively cheap handcuff given his talent, opportunity, and ADP of around Deuce McAllister and Felix Jones (8th round in a 12-teamer). If you snag ADP and never have to use Chester, it means ADP is an animal (you win). If you end up using Chester, you just got yourself a top end RB2 in the 8th round (you win). Chester is possibly the most valuable backup RB this year. Make no mistake - ADP will be given every opportunity to be a 25-touch-per-game guy. If he falters, Chester turns into a 25-touch RB. IMO it's a win-win situation. MIN has a very clear-cut backfield.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

I think you're over-thinking it, yeah.

I mean, this kid was tearing it up and getting national press in high school. Then he goes off to college and tears it up there too. He gets drafted as the top RB in his class and ends up on what is arguably one of the best OL's we've seen in the past decade or so. At the end of the day you've got a perfect mix of talent + situation, and other than the injury concern there's no reason to think he won't produce. And as far as last year's injury goes – ANY running back would've been hurt on that play, so I'm not terribly concerned with him losing time this year. No more than any other back anyway.

To me, his ceiling is one of those "far and above the rest of the pack" seasons. The kind that almost single handedly win championships. His floor is somewhere in the top-5... So all in all, he's an easy 1st overall pick in my book. I just see him having FAR more upside than LT, SJAX or whoever. If anyone is going to have one of those historical type seasons, I'm thinking it's him.

 

[menobrown]

Yes he comes with question marks for durability and IMO to a lesser extent Chester Taylor and I'm not exactly sure how I feel about him yet myself.

One factor for me is what kind of league am I in. If I'm a regular league were the main goal is to win that league I would probably go with a safer choice at 1 or 2. If I'm one of the big money leagues like WCOFF or NFFC were I am trying to beat several hundred teams than I'd be more inclined to swing for the home run in which case I'd rate ADP no worse than #2.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't think it's outlandish to say he shouldn't be a top 2 pick or anything. Even as a certifiable AD fanboy I can still see how some people would be scared off with the supposed pick of the litter having concerns about injury (at least in their mind) and sharing time. He's certainly not the "safe" pick at the top.

But, on the other hand, we've seen what he can do and he provides an upside that few others, perhaps no one, does. And it's not like this is some theoretical upside, we've all seen it in use. NFL Network replayed his game against the Chargers again a few weeks ago and watching it again was an absolute treat.

So sure, I can see where some people wouldn't touch him up there. I'm a firm believer in the theory that studs win championships though, and if a guy is going to go for 2000/25 I want him on my team and am willing to take what some may perceive as a risk to get it.

The old saying that "you can't win your league in the first round but you can lose it" is utter rubbish. If you nab a player that goes for 2000/24 and outscores the average first round pick by 100 fantasy points that does just as much to help you as having the 1st round pick that goes for 900/4 and gets outscored by the average first round pick by 100 points does to hurt you.

 

[cstu]

I'd like to hear form the board before we have the onslaught of seasonal visitors in here. I have talked about this in length with a couple of staffers and I know I am not the only one that thinks he might be overrated. I know you can't just go on recent history but so many surefire RBs in the past have ended up flopping. Now ADP will surely have his big games but last year he was injured down the stretch and that was a big fear of potential owners after he had injuires in college. Do you really pencil him in for 16 games...would 12 be better?And is Chester Taylor completely overlooked? He's not the starter by any stretch but he will see significant action, and he is only a sprain away from ruinning behind one of the best OL in football.You either have to take him at the 1.01 or maybe the 1.02. Are there other safer choices on the board or am I overthinking it too much?

Injury is a concern, but it is for every RB - LT, Westbrook and SJax all have something to think about now.However, he's the RB who is in the perfect situation to put up a record breaking year. He could be a bust pick but if he's healthy there's a good chance he outright wins the league for you ala LT 2006.

 

[Donnybrook]

I'd like to hear form the board before we have the onslaught of seasonal visitors in here. I have talked about this in length with a couple of staffers and I know I am not the only one that thinks he might be overrated. I know you can't just go on recent history but so many surefire RBs in the past have ended up flopping. Now ADP will surely have his big games but last year he was injured down the stretch and that was a big fear of potential owners after he had injuires in college. Do you really pencil him in for 16 games...would 12 be better?

And is Chester Taylor completely overlooked? He's not the starter by any stretch but he will see significant action, and he is only a sprain away from ruinning behind one of the best OL in football.

You either have to take him at the 1.01 or maybe the 1.02. Are there other safer choices on the board or am I overthinking it too much?

All 3 have some issues but it could be argued LT, AP or SJax could be the top pick. In PPR even Westbrook could be. If SJax stays healthy and the line can open some holes he could be the top pick.AP will get more passes out of the backfield and should get 65% of the looks for a D and running team.

LT is LT.

I think whoever falls to 3 will be the bargain.

I disagree. St. Louis finnished last in the league in rushing TDs in 2007. I would not have a problem letting someone trade up for Steven Jackson.

 

[Ever Present Lurker]

I do think Peterson warrants the 1.01 pick, but I think if you do draft AD (be it 1.01, 1.02 or later), it is very important to pick up Chester Taylor. I believe AD will be the #1 RB in all the land on a ppg basis, but how many games will that be? Chester Taylor will fill in admirably if and when disaster strikes.

 

[Kleck]

I do think Peterson warrants the 1.01 pick, but I think if you do draft AD (be it 1.01, 1.02 or later), it is very important to pick up Chester Taylor. I believe AD will be the #1 RB in all the land on a ppg basis, but how many games will that be? Chester Taylor will fill in admirably if and when disaster strikes.

I think he will too, or at least be amongst the best on a PPG basis to warrant a top 2 pick. I'm usually not a huge fan of handcuffs, but in Peterson's case I do see some good value with Chester mainly because Minnesota is set up to be a dominant running team. Overrated on a total fantasy points basis is different that being overrated on a PPG basis, which is what I tend to focus more on. For those that put more stock in EOY stats than PPG stats, I can see the argument in Peterson being overrated as he does carry some high risk tolerance.

In general though, ADP is just a tool, and like all tools, they can be overrated if misused.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

I do think Peterson warrants the 1.01 pick, but I think if you do draft AD (be it 1.01, 1.02 or later), it is very important to pick up Chester Taylor. I believe AD will be the #1 RB in all the land on a ppg basis, but how many games will that be? Chester Taylor will fill in admirably if and when disaster strikes.

I think he will too, or at least be amongst the best on a PPG basis to warrant a top 2 pick. I'm usually not a huge fan of handcuffs, but in Peterson's case I do see some good value with Chester mainly because Minnesota is set up to be a dominant running team. Overrated on a total fantasy points basis is different that being overrated on a PPG basis, which is what I tend to focus more on. For those that put more stock in EOY stats than PPG stats, I can see the argument in Peterson being overrated as he does carry some high risk tolerance.

In general though, ADP is just a tool, and like all tools, they can be overrated if misused.

Whoa buddy..... Who you calling a tool?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

To me, his ceiling is one of those "far and above the rest of the pack" seasons. The kind that almost single handedly win championships. His floor is somewhere in the top-5... So all in all, he's an easy 1st overall pick in my book. I just see him having FAR more upside than LT, SJAX or whoever. If anyone is going to have one of those historical type seasons, I'm thinking it's him.

Adrian Peterson is awesome. But I don't know how you can say his upside is higher than this.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

To me, his ceiling is one of those "far and above the rest of the pack" seasons. The kind that almost single handedly win championships. His floor is somewhere in the top-5... So all in all, he's an easy 1st overall pick in my book. I just see him having FAR more upside than LT, SJAX or whoever. If anyone is going to have one of those historical type seasons, I'm thinking it's him.

Adrian Peterson is awesome. But I don't know how you can say his upside is higher than this.

Says the Chargers season ticket holder and owner of an A.J. Smith Fatheads poster in his bedroom.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

here's my take on ADP as of right now:

In Startup DYnasty drats he's clearly the #1 pick

In re-draft traditional non-PPR leagues, he's the #2 pick behind LT2

In PPR re-draft, he's currently ranked #3 on my board I'd take Sjax before him and thats it

 

[cstu]

To me, his ceiling is one of those "far and above the rest of the pack" seasons. The kind that almost single handedly win championships. His floor is somewhere in the top-5... So all in all, he's an easy 1st overall pick in my book. I just see him having FAR more upside than LT, SJAX or whoever. If anyone is going to have one of those historical type seasons, I'm thinking it's him.

Adrian Peterson is awesome. But I don't know how you can say his upside is higher than this.

Says the Chargers season ticket holder and owner of an A.J. Smith Fatheads poster in his bedroom.

 

[SSOG]

To me, his ceiling is one of those "far and above the rest of the pack" seasons. The kind that almost single handedly win championships. His floor is somewhere in the top-5... So all in all, he's an easy 1st overall pick in my book. I just see him having FAR more upside than LT, SJAX or whoever. If anyone is going to have one of those historical type seasons, I'm thinking it's him.

Adrian Peterson is awesome. But I don't know how you can say his upside is higher than this.

I was just about to post this. We have two RBs. One of them had 2300 yards and 30 TDs just two years ago. Another has 1600 career yards and 13 career TDs. Both RBs are in the exact same system they were in when they compiled the numbers in question, surrounded by pretty much exactly the same supporting cast. If we're going to argue that one of these RBs is more likely to "lap the rest of the league", I'm going to say that it's far and away Tomlinson. I mean, Ben Roethlisberger has incredible skills, is in a great offense, and looks like the wave of the future... but he's not more likely to throw for 45+ TDs than Manning or Brady, is he? Of course not- Manning and Brady have already been there and done that, so they're more likely to do it again in the future.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

You either have to take him at the 1.01 or maybe the 1.02. Are there other safer choices on the board or am I overthinking it too much?

If the question is safer, I would say Addai. I don't think he possess the upside that ADP, SJAX, or Gore bring to the table.

 

[kwille]

here's my take on ADP as of right now:In Startup DYnasty drats he's clearly the #1 pickIn re-draft traditional non-PPR leagues, he's the #2 pick behind LT2In PPR re-draft, he's currently ranked #3 on my board I'd take Sjax before him and thats it

I agree with your first two points, but I'm really surprised not to see more of Brian Westbrook in the PPR part of this conversation. Without going into specifics, all five sets of the FBG offensive projections have Westbrook as the clear #2 in PPR (behind LT and quite a bit in front of ADP and the rest), and past seasons show that BW is a PPR beast.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

here's my take on ADP as of right now:In Startup DYnasty drats he's clearly the #1 pickIn re-draft traditional non-PPR leagues, he's the #2 pick behind LT2In PPR re-draft, he's currently ranked #3 on my board I'd take Sjax before him and thats it

I agree with your first two points, but I'm really surprised not to see more of Brian Westbrook in the PPR part of this conversation. Without going into specifics, all five sets of the FBG offensive projections have Westbrook as the clear #2 in PPR (behind LT and quite a bit in front of ADP and the rest), and past seasons show that BW is a PPR beast.

oh he's a PPR beast, but IMO he's kinda fragile. I have westy ranked at #4 in PPR.

 

[southeastjerome]

I'd like to hear form the board before we have the onslaught of seasonal visitors in here. I have talked about this in length with a couple of staffers and I know I am not the only one that thinks he might be overrated. I know you can't just go on recent history but so many surefire RBs in the past have ended up flopping. Now ADP will surely have his big games but last year he was injured down the stretch and that was a big fear of potential owners after he had injuires in college. Do you really pencil him in for 16 games...would 12 be better?And is Chester Taylor completely overlooked? He's not the starter by any stretch but he will see significant action, and he is only a sprain away from ruinning behind one of the best OL in football.You either have to take him at the 1.01 or maybe the 1.02. Are there other safer choices on the board or am I overthinking it too much?

I would not pencil AP in for 16 games, but there aren't many RB's that you can pencil in for 16 games. Based on experience, Tomlinson is one of those guys. That's why I'd have to take him #1 in redrafts. AP certainly has those flashes of brilliance that catch the attention of the mainstream and that will inflate his value somewhat, but I don't see how you could take him any lower than 3 anyways. If it was a PPR I could see taking Westy over him, but for all his faults, I couldn't imagine taking him any later than 3. So I guess if August rolls around and he's a consensus #1 pick in redrafts, I could go along with him being overrated a bit.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I will be in the position of choosing between LT and ADP in my draft this year and have been going back and forth between the two since last season ended.

Here is the problem that I am having: I ususally like to rank players based upon median performance from the previous couple of years. This has worked very well for me in the past. However, the last couple of years, I went overboard with analysis and found that it didnt make a positive difference for me. I put too much stock into the numbers and not enough into gut feel.

LT was far more consistant than ADP last year. He has proven that he is a stud year after year. A close examination of the numbers that I hold as most important, indicates that LT should be an easy pick for me at #1. However, I am fairly certain that I will be taking Adrian Peterson with the first pick and here is why:

My gut tells me so. Overwhelmingly. It may be because I watched his 295 yard game last year. It may be because he was on pace for 2,000 yards before he got hurt. For me, he passes the eyeball test. When I saw him play, he was simply the best running back in the NFL. He runs behind the best line for a team that loves to play defense and run the ball to grind out wins. He may be inconsistant at times, but he will single-handedly win a few games for me.

Tomlinson just has the look of a guy who is on the decline. I could be wrong, but he just doesnt look at dynamic as he once did.

Through the first half of last season, ADP was outscoring, outrushing and out producing everyone else. If he can stay healthy, I think his production will increase from last year. I expect LT to decline a bit. I wouldnt be too surprised to see LT repeat last years numbers, but I would be very surprised to see him revert back to 2006 form.

Ironically, LT's greatness will be one of the main reasons that I dont pick him this year. Back in 2002, my second half of 2001 numbers told me that I should take Anthony Thomas over LT. This was also the general consensus that year. In my gut, I knew that LT was the better choice. He was just awesome whenever he touched the ball. His end of year numbers may not have supported what my gut told me, but I regretted taking Thomas the instant that I chose him. This year is the same situation all over again for me. This time, with all other things being generally equal, I am going to let my gut provide the tie-breaker.