Is Anyone Planning to Upside Down Draft this Year? (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

What if you could do the following? Would it at all interest you?...

1. Calvin

2. Dez

3. Brady (or Manning)

4. Gronk (or D Wilson)

5. Lacy

6. Bell

7. Bernard

8. D. Richardson

Haven't really heard any peeps this year about upside down strategy. A part of me is considering it still, despite the focus on going RB/RB in fantasy circles this year.

This is for a 10-team league with start 2 RB and no Flex. In this type of league, I project there's a much higher chance of Lacy/Bell falling to me in late rd 5/ early rd 6 if I avoid RBs altogether prior to then. Obviously this dynamic wouldn't work at all for leagues where you can start 3 RBs or in those with >10 teams.

 

[FUBAR]

I sort of did this in a 32 team auction league. Top qb in Peyton, two good receivers although not studs, two tight ends i like at the cost and mendenhall is my top back. We shall see how it goes

 

[rizzler]

I think planning on getting both Calvin and Dez in a redraft is wishful thinking.

you're gonna get stung.

 

[mbuehner]

I dont pre plan drafts like that but I wouldn't think so this year. After Calvin I dont have that kinda faith in the top WRs. Dez is so inconsistent for instance. Worse, if theres a run on mid tier RBs (which seems likely to me) you might get stuck w guys you have no faith in (say those two guys are gone, youre out of options but to take whoever fell). I think youre likely to need AT LEAST get 1 rb in the first 3 rounds, bare bare minimum. Im not saying thats always true, but the way I read this years mocks.

 

[tsarc888]

I think planning on getting both Calvin and Dez in a redraft is wishful thinking.

you're gonna get stung.

keep in mind he's in a 10 team league. I recently completed a 10 team draft, and got both Calvin and Dez outta the 8th slot. From there, I didn't keep with the whole "upside down" plan, as I took RB's with next 3 picks.

 

[Short Corner]

I think planning on getting both Calvin and Dez in a redraft is wishful thinking.

you're gonna get stung.

keep in mind he's in a 10 team league. I recently completed a 10 team draft, and got both Calvin and Dez outta the 8th slot. From there, I didn't keep with the whole "upside down" plan, as I took RB's with next 3 picks.

Yeah, with depth at QB and drop at TE you can start going after RBs a few rounds earlier.

I love upside down drafting but I think my worst pick has been 3rd inthe last few years.

 

[steveski]

This MIGHT work fine if you get every guy you listed. If not then your team blows. Even so, you're starting 2-3 rookie RBs who might suck in a league where everyone else has 2-3 studs. Good luck. I hope some people in my league this year try this strategy.

 

[Franknbeans]

I plan to wear gravity boots

 

[ponchsox]

I think I would puke if those were my RBs.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Very likely in a couple of drafts. Unless you are drafting with newbees, very little chance you could get CJo and Dez.

 

[LawFitz]

Very likely in a couple of drafts. Unless you are drafting with newbees, very little chance you could get CJo and Dez.

Definitely don't consider it a lock but I think there's a much greater chance of it happening in my ten teamer than most would think. I would only consider this if I could get Calvin AND Dez. I have them in their own tier this year among WR.

 

[LawFitz]

I think I would puke if those were my RBs.

No doubt beauty is in the eye when it comes to late round RBs. I am more concerned with passing on DWilson in rd 4 for Gronk, but

A. A healthy Gronk is a FF force;

B. I think I can get Sudfield super late; and

C. I project the odds of Lacy falling to late rd 5 to be significantly higher if I pass on DWilson in rd 4.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think a semi upside down draft is ok, but it is suicide to not get a RB in the first two rounds. I would be ok with something like McCoy, Marshall, Fitzgerald, Brady, Jordy Nelson to start in a 3 WR league. Or maybe a Graham, Ridley, RWhite, Newton, SSmith for 2 WR.

 

[Ace08]

For my 12 man ppr I'm targetting 2 of these 4 in the first 2 rounds out of the #9 slot

Calvin

Dez

Marshall

AJ Green

So worst case I get Dez @9 and miss out on Marshall/Green...if that happens I'd go Fitzgerald. I know his ADP is end of the 2nd/early 3rd but I haven't seen him make it back to 3.09 in the last 2 and a half weeks...and I've done a ton of mocks.

From there originally my plan was to go RB in the third (Wilson, Miller) and then come back with Amendola in the 4th...the problem is Amendola's ADP has been rising and in the last 2 mocks I just did today he went EARLY 3rd round. I think Amendola is the last of the WR's that can push 100 catches so if that happens I'd probably go RB in both the 3rd and 4th and then come back with Garcon or Antonio Brown in the 5th.

As of right now that's my rough plan for the early rounds. I'm flexible and if something out of the norm happens (Spiller making it to 9 for example) then I might deviate...but I've been going WR-WR early in my ppr leagues for 5 years now with really good results. I have a knack for mining middle to late round rb's though.

Late round rb's I'm taking in all my drafts are Joique Bell, Helu, Powell, Dunbar/Randle, and Woodhead.

This is all assuming ppr of course.

 

[Man of Zen]

It might interest me, but I feel pretty sure that in competitive leagues, the ship has sailed on Lacy, Bell, and maybe Gio falling that far. Lacy and Bell went in the 4th of mine last night, Gio in the 5th. I think this is the new normal.

 

[habsfan]

From 1.07 I gave a great deal of thought to going Calvin / Graham but it didn't materialize...

 

[Long Ball Larry]

It might interest me, but I feel pretty sure that in competitive leagues, the ship has sailed on Lacy, Bell, and maybe Gio falling that far. Lacy and Bell went in the 4th of mine last night, Gio in the 5th. I think this is the new normal.

Agreed. Those picks are far less plausible than getting Calvin and Dez.

I have been trying to figure out a way to do the do the upside down draft, but I feel like the rbs who were value picks a week or two ago are really rising.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

From 1.07 I gave a great deal of thought to going Calvin / Graham but it didn't materialize...

This is what I did last year in a 10 team from the 7 or 8 spot. Bombed on Fred Jackson on the 3rd and got a great pick in Richardson in the 4th. Been really watching bell, Bernard and lacy this year, but I think you will need to get bell and lacy by the 4th.

 

[One]

I've tried going backwards 3 times in the last 3 years (WR-WR-QB or WR-QB-WR) and they've all turned out to be lower-half teams. All 12 and a 14 teamer.

I agree, it sounds fun to do in August, but I don't think I'll be trying it again anytime soon.

 

[LawFitz]

It might interest me, but I feel pretty sure that in competitive leagues, the ship has sailed on Lacy, Bell, and maybe Gio falling that far. Lacy and Bell went in the 4th of mine last night, Gio in the 5th. I think this is the new normal.

Agreed. Those picks are far less plausible than getting Calvin and Dez.

I have been trying to figure out a way to do the do the upside down draft, but I feel like the rbs who were value picks a week or two ago are really rising.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=10&pos=rb

There are nine other teams in my league. We start 2 RB and 3 WR with no flex. This is year 12 of our league, meaning I can glean certain tendencies. One of them is that only one or two teams at most will draft 3 RBs in the first five rounds. Based on the above list from FFC, I'm fairly confident the rookie RBs will be there for me in rd 5 if I've picked no RBs by that point. At most 20 RBs will be off the board, including Sproles and DWilson.

 

[We Tigers]

A real upside-down draft gets QB, WR, and maybe TE before touching RB. I much prefer to get one RB in round 1 or 2, but using ADP from FFC, here's what you could do from the turn in a 12-team league:

1.12 Dez Bryant

2.01 AJ Green

3.12 Vincent Jackson

4.01 Cam Newton

5.12 Shane Vereen

6.01 Rashard Mendenhall

7.12 Mark Ingram

8.01 Ronnie Hillman

9.12 Jordan Cameron

10.01 Pierre Thomas

No, I hate that team.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

It might interest me, but I feel pretty sure that in competitive leagues, the ship has sailed on Lacy, Bell, and maybe Gio falling that far. Lacy and Bell went in the 4th of mine last night, Gio in the 5th. I think this is the new normal.

Agreed. Those picks are far less plausible than getting Calvin and Dez.I have been trying to figure out a way to do the do the upside down draft, but I feel like the rbs who were value picks a week or two ago are really rising.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=10&pos=rbThere are nine other teams in my league. We start 2 RB and 3 WR with no flex. This is year 12 of our league, meaning I can glean certain tendencies. One of them is that only one or two teams at most will draft 3 RBs in the first five rounds. Based on the above list from FFC, I'm fairly confident the rookie RBs will be there for me in rd 5 if I've picked no RBs by that point. At most 20 RBs will be off the board, including Sproles and DWilson.

That list hast bell at 37 and lacy at 44, so you would not get bell in the 6th and will be sweating lacy in the 5th.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Also, if you have been following, the 3 rookies have been continually rising and I'm not sure that will stop.

I think that the team would be good, I just don't know that it's realistic.

 

[bucsbaby]

1st: Calvin

2nd: Dez/AJ/Graham/Brees

3rd: White/Fitz/Vjax/Manning

4th: Brady/Cam/Gronk

5th: Gronk/Welker/Ryan

6th: Mendenhall/Mathews

7th: DRich

8th: Hillman/Ivory

9th: Ingram/DWill

I've done quite a few mocks the past week or so and something like the above seems reasonably doable in 12 team public (i.e., non-"big money" -- ESPN/Yahoo/Draft Calculator) leagues

Could end up with something like:

QB: Brady/Cam

RB1: Mendenhall/Mathews

RB2: DRich/Ivory

RB3: Hillman/DWill/

WR1: Calvin

WR2: Dez/AJ

WR3: Roddy/Fitz

TE: Graham/Gronk

The only RB I'm high on in that group is DRich, but if you draft 4 and half of them hit, your team could still easily be one of the top. Granted, in uber-competitive leagues, some of these guys might not slip far enough for this strategy to work. However, in some mocks I've done, I have tried it out.

In general though, I do tend to like my teams better when I have 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds, unless someone like Sproles (ppr) slips to the 4th, which I try not to count on...

If say Mendenhall and DRich panned out though (i.e., score in the RB13-24 range), I would love to have a team that was loaded at QB/WR/TE...

 

[Gottabesweet]

We start QB RB WR TE 2 flex and only 4 bench in a 12 team PPR 6 per TD league.

I pick 1.9 and have been mocking TE,WR

 

[LawFitz]

It might interest me, but I feel pretty sure that in competitive leagues, the ship has sailed on Lacy, Bell, and maybe Gio falling that far. Lacy and Bell went in the 4th of mine last night, Gio in the 5th. I think this is the new normal.

Agreed. Those picks are far less plausible than getting Calvin and Dez.I have been trying to figure out a way to do the do the upside down draft, but I feel like the rbs who were value picks a week or two ago are really rising.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=10&pos=rbThere are nine other teams in my league. We start 2 RB and 3 WR with no flex. This is year 12 of our league, meaning I can glean certain tendencies. One of them is that only one or two teams at most will draft 3 RBs in the first five rounds. Based on the above list from FFC, I'm fairly confident the rookie RBs will be there for me in rd 5 if I've picked no RBs by that point. At most 20 RBs will be off the board, including Sproles and DWilson.

That list hast bell at 37 and lacy at 44, so you would not get bell in the 6th and will be sweating lacy in the 5th.

That FFC list was to illustrate the top RBs draft order relative to one another, not their adp relative to other positions. It's important to understand your own league dynamics and adjust the FFC adp accordingly. For example,- my league is a must start 3 wr with 0.5 ppr, so RBs fall relative to FFC standard which is 2 WR no ppr;

- I am fairly certain Sproles and Wilson will go higher relative to DMC, the rookie RBs and maybe even Murray.

Basically, I expect 19-21 rbs to be off the board when I pick in the 5th. I suspect Lacy, Bell and Bernard wont be one of those initial 19-21 backs.

 

[Warrior]

Upside down drafting is foolish. If a wr presents greater value, draft him. It's not rocket science.

 

[LawFitz]

Upside down drafting is foolish. If a wr presents greater value, draft him. It's not rocket science.

Not rocket science but more complex than you make it out to be IMO. For example, there is no way I'd consider this in a league with 12 teams or one where you are able to start >2 rbs.

 

[Air Stich]

This isn't technically upside down, but I just drafted in a 12 team PPR from the 10th pick:

1. RB Richardson

2. TE Graham

3. WR A. Johnson

4. WR Amendola

5. WR Jordy Nelson

6. QB Matt Ryan

7. WR TY Hilton

8. WR J Gordon

9. RB Tate

10. RB Danny Woodhead

11. RB P. Thomas

12. WR R. Randle

13. RB J. Rodgers

14. RB C Michael

I didn't intend to ignore RB2 for so long, but I never seemed to like the RBs available. This league starts 2 RB, 3WR, and a W/R flex, so I'll be rolling 4 wide every week. But I find that to be the preferred strategy in full point PPR.

 

[Wrigley]

I think planning on getting both Calvin and Dez in a redraft is wishful thinking.

you're gonna get stung.

took Dez at 2.12 in my draft this weekend.

 

[rizzler]

I think planning on getting both Calvin and Dez in a redraft is wishful thinking.

you're gonna get stung.

took Dez at 2.12 in my draft this weekend.

Im not calling you a liar.... but what kind of league is this? 1pt per RB carry or what?

He's going in the late 1st / early 2nd at the latest in every mock/league Im in.

Great for you, though. That's ridiculous

 

[mbuehner]

This isn't technically upside down, but I just drafted in a 12 team PPR from the 10th pick:

1. RB Richardson

2. TE Graham

3. WR A. Johnson

4. WR Amendola

5. WR Jordy Nelson

6. QB Matt Ryan

7. WR TY Hilton

8. WR J Gordon

9. RB Tate

10. RB Danny Woodhead

11. RB P. Thomas

12. WR R. Randle

13. RB J. Rodgers

14. RB C Michael

I didn't intend to ignore RB2 for so long, but I never seemed to like the RBs available. This league starts 2 RB, 3WR, and a W/R flex, so I'll be rolling 4 wide every week. But I find that to be the preferred strategy in full point PPR.

Not remotely upside down, but also an awful draft.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Upside down drafting is foolish. If a wr presents greater value, draft him. It's not rocket science.

Not rocket science but more complex than you make it out to be IMO. For example, there is no way I'd consider this in a league with 12 teams or one where you are able to start >2 rbs.

Well then you are mising the boat, gb. In the $1k FFPC VP league last year, my first 3 picks were CalJo, Marshall, Cruz. I won the league running away.

 

[Deamon]

I almost feel like you HAVE to do the upside down draft out of the 12 spot this year if the draft goes 'as it's supposed to". Of course it wont, but assuming the big 10 rbs this year all go round 1, and calvin goes, then what else would you really do at pick 12? Might be too high to draft forte, so really you might have to go 2 of aj/marshall/dez

 

[Ilov80s]

I almost feel like you HAVE to do the upside down draft out of the 12 spot this year if the draft goes 'as it's supposed to". Of course it wont, but assuming the big 10 rbs this year all go round 1, and calvin goes, then what else would you really do at pick 12? Might be too high to draft forte, so really you might have to go 2 of aj/marshall/dez

Like you said, there will likely be a QB or Graham in the first in most home leagues. Even if they don't, you could still get a combo of nice backs. Maybe neither is clear stud, but 2 low end 1RBs/high end 2RBs isn't a bad start.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Very likely in a couple of drafts. Unless you are drafting with newbees, very little chance you could get CJo and Dez.

Definitely don't consider it a lock but I think there's a much greater chance of it happening in my ten teamer than most would think. I would only consider this if I could get Calvin AND Dez. I have them in their own tier this year among WR.

So you would only consider this strategy if you can get Calvin AND Dez. Does that mean youre taking Mega in the 1st and if Dez is gone you will go RB, or something else?

Im not a fan of upside down drafting to begin with, but this seems like the worst year in recent memory to do so.

 

[Short Corner]

Very likely in a couple of drafts. Unless you are drafting with newbees, very little chance you could get CJo and Dez.

Definitely don't consider it a lock but I think there's a much greater chance of it happening in my ten teamer than most would think. I would only consider this if I could get Calvin AND Dez. I have them in their own tier this year among WR.

So you would only consider this strategy if you can get Calvin AND Dez. Does that mean youre taking Mega in the 1st and if Dez is gone you will go RB, or something else?

Im not a fan of upside down drafting to begin with, but this seems like the worst year in recent memory to do so.

Yeah, RB2BC is the new up-side-down

 

[Kenny Powers]

I had my first non-mock draft a couple nights ago. I had the 7th pick in a 12 teamer, non-PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2Flex. I started out McCoy-Dez-Sproles-Lacy-Bowe-DJax-Romo. On paper, Im alright with that, but Sproles (again, non-PPR) and Lacy (who Im high on) both felt like moderate reaches at the time where I couldnt find value elsewhere. Part of my indecision was because Im just doing my protections/VBD starting this week so I had nothing to go off of besides the site rankings as well.

That said, while every 2nd round RB - Forte, CJ1K, SJax, Ridley - has some reason to doubt them, Id be happy with any of them on my team. Right now, Round 3 is a RB wasteland IMO, quite a bit of risk all around. Im starting to think RB/RB is the best option this year, then hit WR in 3rd, and depending on value get your RB3 in the 4th or 5th (to go with a WR or QB). I realize that isnt possible with the OP's format, just my feeling overall as we near the start of the season/FF drafts.

 

[bucsbaby]

I had my first non-mock draft a couple nights ago. I had the 7th pick in a 12 teamer, non-PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2Flex. I started out McCoy-Dez-Sproles-Lacy-Bowe-DJax-Romo. On paper, Im alright with that, but Sproles (again, non-PPR) and Lacy (who Im high on) both felt like moderate reaches at the time where I couldnt find value elsewhere. Part of my indecision was because Im just doing my protections/VBD starting this week so I had nothing to go off of besides the site rankings as well.

That said, while every 2nd round RB - Forte, CJ1K, SJax, Ridley - has some reason to doubt them, Id be happy with any of them on my team. Right now, Round 3 is a RB wasteland IMO, quite a bit of risk all around. Im starting to think RB/RB is the best option this year, then hit WR in 3rd, and depending on value get your RB3 in the 4th or 5th (to go with a WR or QB). I realize that isnt possible with the OP's format, just my feeling overall as we near the start of the season/FF drafts.

If you can start 4 RBs, I think you have to start out with at least 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds...especially non-ppr

 

[ImTheScientist]

Upside down drafting is foolish. If a wr presents greater value, draft him. It's not rocket science.

I believe the guy that won the FPC last year did an upside down draft.

 

[mbuehner]

Upside down drafting is foolish. If a wr presents greater value, draft him. It's not rocket science.

I believe the guy that won the FPC last year did an upside down draft.

I think his point is that if you end up with a draft that was upside down because thats where the best value was, thats fine, but its foolish to go in intending to upside down draft when you dont know how the flow of the draft will go. Which I agree with.

The issue with this is not knowing the RBs that will fall to you late. It looks like about 20 RBs are going off the boards in the first 3 rounds of 12 team mocks, so depending where you draft in the 4th you could definately be 22 or 23 RBs deep looking for your RB1.

Its easy to say youre happy with RBs X and Y, but if they get snatched up earlier, some of the guys you obviously dont believe in are going to fall to you and you are pretty much stuck with them. Now if you happen to think RBs 20-30 are all more or less guys you can live with, I guess that's ok. But I'm guessing most owners have very real problems with various guys down there (never again Ryan Mathews!, etc), but there are only 32 starting RBs in the league minus some serious RBBC issues. Long story short, you put yourself at the mercy of the draft in a way that really doesn't exist with taking WRs or even QBs late. You know what the value of the WRs you take early is, but you wont know what the value of the RBs you take late is going to be.

 

[LawFitz]

I had my first non-mock draft a couple nights ago. I had the 7th pick in a 12 teamer, non-PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2Flex. I started out McCoy-Dez-Sproles-Lacy-Bowe-DJax-Romo. On paper, Im alright with that, but Sproles (again, non-PPR) and Lacy (who Im high on) both felt like moderate reaches at the time where I couldnt find value elsewhere. Part of my indecision was because Im just doing my protections/VBD starting this week so I had nothing to go off of besides the site rankings as well.

That said, while every 2nd round RB - Forte, CJ1K, SJax, Ridley - has some reason to doubt them, Id be happy with any of them on my team. Right now, Round 3 is a RB wasteland IMO, quite a bit of risk all around. Im starting to think RB/RB is the best option this year, then hit WR in 3rd, and depending on value get your RB3 in the 4th or 5th (to go with a WR or QB). I realize that isnt possible with the OP's format, just my feeling overall as we near the start of the season/FF drafts.

Scoring and lineup structure plays a HUGE role in the analysis IMO. Let's use a league with the ability to start 3 RBs as an example. There is no way I would wait until round 5 to draft an RB in such a format. Why? Because if one of my league mates hits with three stud RBs (let's say McCoy, a resurgent CJ2K, and then a blow up player like DWilson) he can actually start all three, staking a major advantage and creating a huge incentive to pick 3+ RBs in the first five rounds.

In my league however, where we can only start 2 RBs; where we have to start 3 WR; where we have 0.5 PPR and return yardage; where we only have ten teams,

I know with a reasonable amount of certainty that if I personally avoid all RBs until late round 5 that 19-21 RBs will be off the board. How? Because 10 teams minus one (me) = 9 x 2 RBs = 18, plus between one and three of those nine picking 3 RBs in the first five rounds. In my league, it's more likely to be one or two, than three guys doing this.

So I look at the board and I see that two of Lamar Miller, Eddie Lacy and Demarco Murray will be the 20th and 21st backs taken. So that means I'll be left with the third guy to take off the board at at pick 5.9 as RB22 and if I'm lucky, I'll have my choice of two or all three them because only 19-20 RBs will have been taken before I choose.

There's a lot of focus on ADP in these boards and elsewhere. And there should be. But IMO there isn't enough focus on adjusting ADP for your specific league set up.

Along those lines, I see opportunity this year, in an upside-down strategy in start 2 RB leagues, particularly those with 10 teams or less. Though I'm open to the idea that this is also viable in 12 team leagues with a similar start 2 RB format. The difference is instead of looking at RB 21ish (~Murray, Lacy, Miller) as your RB1, you are looking at RB 24ish (~McFadden, Mathews, Bernard, Ivory), which to me is a solid tier below. I used FFC RB draft positioning form their 10-team, std scoring ADP, and adjusted for my league's rules re: PPR, returns. I personally would much rather have one of the RB 21ish guys as my RB1, and I'm a lot less confident that would happen in a 12-team format.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I just did a 10-team upside down draft from the 9th spot. Here's how it went.

1.9 Calvin Johnson

2.2 Dez Bryant

3.9 Aaron Rodgers

4.2 Rob Gronkowski

5.9 Ryan Matthews

6.2 GIovanni Bernard

7.9 Ahmad Bradshaw

8.2 Chris Ivory

9.9 Greg Jennings

10.2 JerMichael Finley

11.9 Ronnie Hillman

12.2 Jonathan Stewart

13.9 Kenbrell Thompkins

14.2 New England Defense

15.9 Justin Tucker

Roster

QB: Aaron Rodgers

RB: Ryan Matthews, Giovanni Bernard, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Ivory, Ronnie Hillman, Jonathan Stewart

WR: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Greg Jennings, Kenbrell Thompkins

TE: Rob Gronkowski, JerMichael Finley

Notes

• Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy went off the board at 5.7 and 5.8, just before my pick at 5.9 (Matthews)
• 7 of the 10 teams had drafted 3 RBs by the time my 5.9 pick came up.

The team looks pretty decent. There's a mix of high upside RBs and RBs that should at least make low end starters on volume if those guys don't work out. However, if I'd waited on WRs rather than RBs (assuming the rest of the draft went exactly the same, which is unlikely) my first two picks would have been Rice/Forte and the run of four straight WRs in rounds 5-8 would have been something like Nicks/Nelson/A Brown/S Smith. I'm not sure which I like better.

I'd be interested in trying this out from one of the early spots as well, where you probably would have to settle on someone like Demaryius or Julio instead of Dez, but you'd be able to grab Graham instead of Gronk and save yourself another mid-round lottery ticket that you'd have to use on a backup TE with Gronk, while at the same time having a better shot at Lacy in the early 5th. I think Lacy is a key piece to this.

 

[LawFitz]

I just did a 10-team upside down draft from the 9th spot. Here's how it went.

1.9 Calvin Johnson

2.2 Dez Bryant

3.9 Aaron Rodgers

4.2 Rob Gronkowski

5.9 Ryan Matthews

6.2 GIovanni Bernard

7.9 Ahmad Bradshaw

8.2 Chris Ivory

9.9 Greg Jennings

10.2 JerMichael Finley

11.9 Ronnie Hillman

12.2 Jonathan Stewart

13.9 Kenbrell Thompkins

14.2 New England Defense

15.9 Justin Tucker

Roster

QB: Aaron Rodgers

RB: Ryan Matthews, Giovanni Bernard, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Ivory, Ronnie Hillman, Jonathan Stewart

WR: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Greg Jennings, Kenbrell Thompkins

TE: Rob Gronkowski, JerMichael Finley

Notes

• Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy went off the board at 5.7 and 5.8, just before my pick at 5.9 (Matthews)
• 7 of the 10 teams had drafted 3 RBs by the time my 5.9 pick came up.

The team looks pretty decent. There's a mix of high upside RBs and RBs that should at least make low end starters on volume if those guys don't work out. However, if I'd waited on WRs rather than RBs (assuming the rest of the draft went exactly the same, which is unlikely) my first two picks would have been Rice/Forte and the run of four straight WRs in rounds 5-8 would have been something like Nicks/Nelson/A Brown/S Smith. I'm not sure which I like better.

I'd be interested in trying this out from one of the early spots as well, where you probably would have to settle on someone like Demaryius or Julio instead of Dez, but you'd be able to grab Graham instead of Gronk and save yourself another mid-round lottery ticket that you'd have to use on a backup TE with Gronk, while at the same time having a better shot at Lacy in the early 5th. I think Lacy is a key piece to this.

Thx Free B, this is very close to what I'm projecting for my league. Will you please describe your starting/scoring specifics? Can you start more than 2 RB (including any flex)?

 

[Kuz]

I just did a 10-team upside down draft from the 9th spot. Here's how it went.

1.9 Calvin Johnson

2.2 Dez Bryant

3.9 Aaron Rodgers

4.2 Rob Gronkowski

5.9 Ryan Matthews

6.2 GIovanni Bernard

7.9 Ahmad Bradshaw

8.2 Chris Ivory

9.9 Greg Jennings

10.2 JerMichael Finley

11.9 Ronnie Hillman

12.2 Jonathan Stewart

13.9 Kenbrell Thompkins

14.2 New England Defense

15.9 Justin Tucker

Roster

QB: Aaron Rodgers

RB: Ryan Matthews, Giovanni Bernard, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Ivory, Ronnie Hillman, Jonathan Stewart

WR: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Greg Jennings, Kenbrell Thompkins

TE: Rob Gronkowski, JerMichael Finley

Notes

• Le'Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy went off the board at 5.7 and 5.8, just before my pick at 5.9 (Matthews)
• 7 of the 10 teams had drafted 3 RBs by the time my 5.9 pick came up.

The team looks pretty decent. There's a mix of high upside RBs and RBs that should at least make low end starters on volume if those guys don't work out. However, if I'd waited on WRs rather than RBs (assuming the rest of the draft went exactly the same, which is unlikely) my first two picks would have been Rice/Forte and the run of four straight WRs in rounds 5-8 would have been something like Nicks/Nelson/A Brown/S Smith. I'm not sure which I like better.

I'd be interested in trying this out from one of the early spots as well, where you probably would have to settle on someone like Demaryius or Julio instead of Dez, but you'd be able to grab Graham instead of Gronk and save yourself another mid-round lottery ticket that you'd have to use on a backup TE with Gronk, while at the same time having a better shot at Lacy in the early 5th. I think Lacy is a key piece to this.

I don't play in 10 team leagues but this looks like a really good team. Finley should be more than fine until Gronk comes back & if you hit on one or two of those RB's you're golden

 

[Captain Hook]

What if you could do the following? Would it at all interest you?...

1. Calvin

2. Dez

3. Brady (or Manning)

4. Gronk (or D Wilson)

5. Lacy

6. Bell

7. Bernard

8. D. Richardson

Haven't really heard any peeps this year about upside down strategy. A part of me is considering it still, despite the focus on going RB/RB in fantasy circles this year.

This is for a 10-team league with start 2 RB and no Flex. In this type of league, I project there's a much higher chance of Lacy/Bell falling to me in late rd 5/ early rd 6 if I avoid RBs altogether prior to then. Obviously this dynamic wouldn't work at all for leagues where you can start 3 RBs or in those with >10 teams.

With the depth at QB this year and the question marks after Graham at TE before a lot of serviceable guys there is just no NEED this year to try a strategy that has no guarantee and lots of risk.

At least get one top RB and then go for STUDS and Value and get several candidates for your RB2 later

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not too bad Bagel. Surprised to see Rodgers last that long, based on the ADP's I see online (I know, I know, all leagues are different).

 

[Teef]

Not too bad Bagel. Surprised to see Rodgers last that long, based on the ADP's I see online (I know, I know, all leagues are different).

All 8-10 team squads look good.

Strats like this should have separate threads, one for 6-10 teamers, one for 12-16 teamers cause it feels like some posters are making valid points, but only in the context of their league size. I'll go backwards in an 8-10 teamer, maybe a twelver, but never in a 14-16 teamer.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Thx Free B, this is very close to what I'm projecting for my league. Will you please describe your starting/scoring specifics? Can you start more than 2 RB (including any flex)?

Scoring/starters are pretty much as basic as you can get.

1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1k, 1def

No flex, non-ppr, 6pt pass TDs

I was was surprised to see the QBs fall this far given the 6pt pass TDs and non-ppr. Brees was the 1st off the board in the early 3rd. I think people are onto the idea that there's just so much depth there this year. In a 10 team league there are more QB1 quality starters than there are teams.

 

[LawFitz]

Thx Free B, this is very close to what I'm projecting for my league. Will you please describe your starting/scoring specifics? Can you start more than 2 RB (including any flex)?

Scoring/starters are pretty much as basic as you can get.

1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1k, 1def

No flex, non-ppr, 6pt pass TDs

I was was surprised to see the QBs fall this far given the 6pt pass TDs and non-ppr. Brees was the 1st off the board in the early 3rd. I think people are onto the idea that there's just so much depth there this year. In a 10 team league there are more QB1 quality starters than there are teams.

Interesting. My only difference is 0.5 PPR, but that seems to effect the RB/WR dynamic enough that I would be completely shocked if 7 of the remaining 9 teams picked 3 RBs in the first five rounds in my draft. There is no way that will happen in my league. Perception of WR value is too high for that. Our decade plus history tells me that only one to three teams will pick their backup RB that early.

This just goes to show how the slightest scoring variation can materially affect a draft and thus a draft strategy like upside down vs. traditional. Makes it hard to talk in threads like this in general terms, but also is a reality that we can exploit if our leagues' rules vary enough from the ADP lists everyone and their grandmother looks at.