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Is Forsett an Ascendant Talent? (1 Viewer)

1) JF #65 in the NFL's top 100 players list

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-top100-2015/0ap3000000494234/Top-100-Players-of-2015-No-65-Justin-Forsett

2) Any expected changes in usage or success based on the OC switch from Kubiak to Trestman (former run game guru that turned UFA Arian Foster into a star, latter put Matt Forte to good use in CHI last few years, so maybe a wash?).

3) The best thing about being a journeyman on his fourth team through seven seasons - low mileage. Despite turning 30 in 2015 (I recall past debates about whether declines are more about age than mileage, with some suggesting age, but overall, that the data was inconclusive), he has 582 career carries TOTAL, of which 235 were in 2014. For perspective, both Le'Veon Bell (23) and Eddie Lacy (25 in 2015) have played just two seasons, and already have nearly as many with 534 and 530 carries, respectively.

 
Rotoworld take:

Speaking Thursday, Joe Flacco said Justin Forsett is "going to be a huge checkdown guy for us."

As our own Evan Silva guesstimates, Forsett could be in for 80-plus grabs in new OC Marc Trestman's system. Matt Forte caught a ridiculous 176 passes across Trestman's two years in Chicago, including 102 last season. A good receiver in his own right, Forsett made 44 grabs for 263 yards in 2014.

Source: Aaron Wilson on Twitter

May 28 - 3:56 PM
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Bob Magaw said:
1) JF #65 in the NFL's top 100 players list

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-top100-2015/0ap3000000494234/Top-100-Players-of-2015-No-65-Justin-Forsett

2) Any expected changes in usage or success based on the OC switch from Kubiak to Trestman (former run game guru that turned UFA Arian Foster into a star, latter put Matt Forte to good use in CHI last few years, so maybe a wash?).

3) The best thing about being a journeyman on his fourth team through seven seasons - low mileage. Despite turning 30 in 2015 (I recall past debates about whether declines are more about age than mileage, with some suggesting age, but overall, that the data was inconclusive), he has 582 career carries TOTAL, of which 235 were in 2014. For perspective, both Le'Veon Bell (23) and Eddie Lacy (25 in 2015) have played just two seasons, and already have nearly as many with 534 and 530 carries, respectively.
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The worst thing of course being that he's a middling talent.

 
Sabertooth said:
Bob Magaw said:
1) JF #65 in the NFL's top 100 players list

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-top100-2015/0ap3000000494234/Top-100-Players-of-2015-No-65-Justin-Forsett

2) Any expected changes in usage or success based on the OC switch from Kubiak to Trestman (former run game guru that turned UFA Arian Foster into a star, latter put Matt Forte to good use in CHI last few years, so maybe a wash?).

3) The best thing about being a journeyman on his fourth team through seven seasons - low mileage. Despite turning 30 in 2015 (I recall past debates about whether declines are more about age than mileage, with some suggesting age, but overall, that the data was inconclusive), he has 582 career carries TOTAL, of which 235 were in 2014. For perspective, both Le'Veon Bell (23) and Eddie Lacy (25 in 2015) have played just two seasons, and already have nearly as many with 534 and 530 carries, respectively.
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The worst thing of course being that he's a middling talent.
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Guys like this drive me crazy. If some of you are like me, you've probably owned this guy in a dynasty league here or there (along with 90% of your league mates). He's just a journeyman guy but lands right in the right spot at the right time and suddenly he's a difference maker in ff. Good for him and good for the owners who happened to have him when he hit but I'd rather get torn apart by Julio and Megatron any day than beaten to a pulp by Justin Forsett and whomever ends up in the Dallas Backfield. lol

 
Sabertooth said:
Bob Magaw said:
1) JF #65 in the NFL's top 100 players list

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-top100-2015/0ap3000000494234/Top-100-Players-of-2015-No-65-Justin-Forsett

2) Any expected changes in usage or success based on the OC switch from Kubiak to Trestman (former run game guru that turned UFA Arian Foster into a star, latter put Matt Forte to good use in CHI last few years, so maybe a wash?).

3) The best thing about being a journeyman on his fourth team through seven seasons - low mileage. Despite turning 30 in 2015 (I recall past debates about whether declines are more about age than mileage, with some suggesting age, but overall, that the data was inconclusive), he has 582 career carries TOTAL, of which 235 were in 2014. For perspective, both Le'Veon Bell (23) and Eddie Lacy (25 in 2015) have played just two seasons, and already have nearly as many with 534 and 530 carries, respectively.
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The worst thing of course being that he's a middling talent.
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Hard to say, he never got much of an opportunity before. Once he did, he ran with it. If he had gotten more opportunity earlier in his career, you might think differently. Are you operating under the assumption that last year was a fluke and he will face plant this year. If so, I don't agree.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter how you label him if he scores at a top 10 clip. I think he led the league with rushes of 20+ yards last year (more than Charles, McCoy, Foster, Lacy, Bell, Lynch, Murray, Hill, etc.) so it isn't like he just had a big run or game that inflated his average, he broke big plays consistently all season, and likes his yardage like his peanut butter - CHUNKY STYLE! :) He is helped by Marshall Yanda on the OL, who is probably the best blocking technician in the NFL at his position (kind of like the Joe Thomas of guards, 4 X All-Pro?).

 
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Sabertooth said:
Good talent usually gets an opportunity.
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He was a poor man's Ray Rice when he came out. He compared well to Rice (quick and agile) but had a slow 40 at his Pro Day (4.62). Not many teams are going to trust a sub-200 lb. RB with 4.6 speed as their primary back.

 
Bob Magaw said:
bigmarc27 said:
I'm a forsett owner but had not seen much of him. After watching that I'm pretty impressed with his vision, but severely underwhelmed by his speed. He looked a lot like Warrick Dunn to me.
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westbrook best example i can think off the top of my head of a RB with the incredible quickness (and functional, PLAYING speed) to more than overcome lack of track speed in shorts... since runs are rarely 40 yards in a straight line, where he would be at an extreme disadvantage (julius peppers might track him down that way), his superior stop start ability, and ability to get back to speed quickly (few strides?) puts defenders in HIS world... where the "race" is series of several 5-10 yard sprints (often in different directions)... edit/add - of course, westbrook was/is bigger, and presumably stronger... forsett a listed 5'8" 195 lbs. (?), westbrook was i think about 5'8" and reportedly played at 208 lbs. a few years ago... dunn may not be a bad comp, though maybe i think of it as more of a compliment than you... he had some good years in TB & ATL... dunn might have been a little taller, and was lighter (under 190?)...
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I think your overanalyzing a middle of the road rb2.I see value around the 6th round

 
joebaggo said:
Bob Magaw said:
bigmarc27 said:
I'm a forsett owner but had not seen much of him. After watching that I'm pretty impressed with his vision, but severely underwhelmed by his speed. He looked a lot like Warrick Dunn to me.
Click to expand...
westbrook best example i can think off the top of my head of a RB with the incredible quickness (and functional, PLAYING speed) to more than overcome lack of track speed in shorts... since runs are rarely 40 yards in a straight line, where he would be at an extreme disadvantage (julius peppers might track him down that way), his superior stop start ability, and ability to get back to speed quickly (few strides?) puts defenders in HIS world... where the "race" is series of several 5-10 yard sprints (often in different directions)... edit/add - of course, westbrook was/is bigger, and presumably stronger... forsett a listed 5'8" 195 lbs. (?), westbrook was i think about 5'8" and reportedly played at 208 lbs. a few years ago... dunn may not be a bad comp, though maybe i think of it as more of a compliment than you... he had some good years in TB & ATL... dunn might have been a little taller, and was lighter (under 190?)...
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I think your overanalyzing a middle of the road rb2.I see value around the 6th round
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You bumped a post from a half decade ago.

I still think the North is going to win the Civil War and Abe Lincoln is a good president, too. :)

 
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Sabertooth said:
Good talent usually gets an opportunity.
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Usually is the operative word (the possibility space doesn't have to be as binary as, either better than Lynch or must be terrible :) ). Another way to look at this is the first time he had an opportunity, he aced it. Again, if you are suggesting last year was a fluke (led the league in 20+ yard runs because he got lucky?) and he is going to face plant in 2015, disagree. He is 30, so not suggesting blowing up your team to acquire him in dynasty, but I don't think the rookie supplants him by week 2, if that is where we are going with this.

 
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he's going to beast with Trestman. even if his YPC trickles down a bit, add in a bunch more receptions, and he's a high end RB2 at worst. PPR a solid RB1.

 
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Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.

 
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
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Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.

 
Freelove said:
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
Click to expand...
Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.
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Forsett is older than Forte.

 
Freelove said:
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
Click to expand...
Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.
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Did not know this so thank you. Top 5 is obviously aggressive but I will bump him up a bit.
 
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Freelove said:
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
Click to expand...
Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.
Click to expand...
Forsett is older than Forte.
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And has 1,519 less NFL touches.

 
I don't see how a running back who will turn 30 during the season and has eclipsed 620 yards only once in his career is a safe play.

 
Sabertooth said:
I don't see how a running back who will turn 30 during the season and has eclipsed 620 yards only once in his career is a safe play.
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Exactly. IMO a 30 year old RB with a second consecutive year of a heavy workload, after never having close to that previously, is likely to break down. Load up on Zo and Buck in the late rounds.

 
Rotoworld:

Justin Forsett - RB - Ravens

The Baltimore Sun agrees that Justin Forsett's catch total "could potentially double" under new OC Marc Trestman.

ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley wrote almost the exact same thing in June. As the Sun notes, Trestman's running backs have averaged 72 catches for roughly 600 yards per season. Forsett finished his breakout 2014 with 44 grabs.

Source: Baltimore Sun

Jul 28 - 7:59 PM
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ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Freelove said:
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
Click to expand...
Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.
Click to expand...
Forsett is older than Forte.
Click to expand...
Is two months really that much of a concern in regards to age?

 
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Freelove said:
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
Click to expand...
Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.
Click to expand...
Forsett is older than Forte.
Click to expand...
Forte has been one of the best RBs in the NFL, and fantasy, his entire career. He is a gifted receiver.

This idea that Forsett will become or surpass Forte just because Trestman is there seems like a leap of logic to me.

 
Doubledown1313 said:
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Freelove said:
-jb- said:
Tough to read this guy, especially after having success in ZBS. Sooooooo many that have had success in this scheme have immediately failed moving into another.
Click to expand...
Another what? Trestman's been insistent for six months now that he's keeping the offense, but tailoring the playcalling within it more to his tastes. ZBS, plus tons more screens = top 5 RB. :shrug:

Forsett's one of the safest plays in FF. He is now what Forte was the last two years, except younger and with better blockers.
Click to expand...
Forsett is older than Forte.
Click to expand...
Is two months really that much of a concern in regards to age?
Click to expand...
Absolutely not. Try reading the previous posts for some clarity.
 
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Forsett is running behind a solid o-line with a solid QB. I'm not too worried about his age. What I like about Forsett is all the tread on his tires. He's sparsely been used his entire career. Look at Fred Jackson...he's been able to prolong his career well into his 30's since he wasn't used very often when he was younger. And he's been a very serviceable back for years. If Forsett is in an offense that caters to his particular skill set, I don't see why we shouldn't expect him to repeat, if not improve upon, his numbers from last year. I'm picking him up for fairly cheap in several leagues.

 
Warpig said:
Forsett is running behind a solid o-line with a solid QB. I'm not too worried about his age. What I like about Forsett is all the tread on his tires. He's sparsely been used his entire career. Look at Fred Jackson...he's been able to prolong his career well into his 30's since he wasn't used very often when he was younger. And he's been a very serviceable back for years. If Forsett is in an offense that caters to his particular skill set, I don't see why we shouldn't expect him to repeat, if not improve upon, his numbers from last year. I'm picking him up for fairly cheap in several leagues.
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I think he could have more longevity due to his low mileage, but even if he doesn't he's a guy I feel comfortable putting in my lineup because he should put up good PPG numbers. There are few RB's you can say that about.

 
Rotoworld:

Justin Forsett - RB - Ravens

Ravens OC Marc Trestman promised Baltimore's offense will remain rooted in the running game.

Replacing balanced-to-run-heavy OC Gary Kubiak, Trestman has a pass-happy background but is insistent on keeping Kubiak's scheme based on the personnel in place. "Ravens football starts with the running game, and that doesn't mean you're not going to throw the ball," Trestman said. "But the emphasis here is we want to be a great running football team, and we have the players to do that. So, that's where we start." The Ravens have a top-five offensive line and will keep Kubiak's zone-running scheme, in which Justin Forsett flourished last season, ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing yards.

Source: Baltimore Sun

Aug 1 - 10:07 PM
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Rotoworld:

Justin Forsett rushed 15 times for 68 yards and caught 4-of-4 targets for 12 yards in the Ravens' Week 2 loss to the Raiders.

The flow of Sunday's game didn't quite work in Forsett's favor, as Baltimore trailed for most of the first half. Forsett remained efficient on the ground, but lost 12 combined touches to Lorenzo Taliaferro and Buck Allen. Taliaferro operated as the Ravens' primary red-zone back, vulturing a seven-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. For as long as Forsett is getting pulled in scoring position, he'll be a poor bet to hit pay dirt week in and week out. Forsett is an RB2 entering a Week 3 date with the Bengals.

Sep 20 - 7:58 PM
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Starting to wonder if Forsett is reverting back to the guy we thought he was - a decent but hardly spectacular talent that just struck lightning in a bottle last year.

 
Looks like a RBBC with red zone touches going to Taliaferro. He was overhyped in the preseason. A lot of talk about great offensive line and how he was going to catch a ton of passes in the Trestman offense. While he is getting some targets in the passing game this has the look of RBBC. Low end RB2.

 
zamboni said:
Starting to wonder if Forsett is reverting back to the guy we thought he was - a decent but hardly spectacular talent that just struck lightning in a bottle last year.
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6 missed tackles on his 15 carries, 49 of his 68 rushing yards came after contact. The situation is worrisome to me, not the talent.

 
Heading in to week 4 with woodhead in over him, I'm still not sold he's a complete bust, and think he this may be the weak he gets it turned around, but dammit this sucks

 
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rugcleaner said:
Heading in to week 4 with woodhead in over him, I'm still not sold he's a complete bust, and think he this may be the weak he gets it turned around, but dammit this sucks
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I am sticking with him again this week. Of course, I do not have much else to choose from.

Not sure if Forsett got bad or the Raven O got that bad. All I know is that it is bad.

 
Maybe time to change title from "ascendant" to "descendant". Looking more and more like he and the Ravens struck lightning in a bottle last year, and he is what we thought he was prior to last year.

 
Yeah I don't think he's got much longer. Is Allen worth a dynasty pickup? Any chances he's the long term solution? Or more like a placeholder.

 
I haven't gotten a chance to watch the Ravens much so far (that will change this week!). However I have been reading that the offensive line has been awful in opening up running lanes.

 
Godsbrother said:
I haven't gotten a chance to watch the Ravens much so far (that will change this week!). However I have been reading that the offensive line has been awful in opening up running lanes.
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I look at how the other RB's are doing and in this case are all doing poorly:

Forsett - 3.2 YPA

Allen - 3.6 YPA

Taliaferro - 3.4 YPA

That indicates an issue with the line to me. Also as a group they are averaging ~3.5 YPR, not good either.

 
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