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Is it just me or is THIS the year to draft late? (1 Viewer)

cscmtp

Footballguy
Seems to me this may be the year where drafting at the end of the first round isn't a bad thing in a 12 team serpentine draft league.

I figure the top 8 or 10 picks will likely be-

LJ

LT

Alexander

Portis

Edge

Jackson

Caddy

Tiki

Jordan

Mcgahee

So that leaves your choice of 2 players after the quick turn like Ronnie Brown, J Jones, Bush, Rudi, McAllister, Westy, Manning, or any WR you want.

That doesn't look so bad to me. Or is this just because I've got the 10th and 11th spots in 2 new dynasty leagues this year? :banned:

 

Boston

Footballguy
In all honesty I'd rather build my team around LJ, LT or Alexander. Those guys are guaranteed to put up monster points on a weekly basis and you're only going to get them very early.

 

Da Flyin Lion

Footballguy
It seems like the real "Tier 1 stud" RB pool is a little smaller this year. In '03 there were 7 RBs who were all considered "Tier 1" (Ricky, Holmes, Faulk, Alexander, Lewis, Portis and Tomlinson.) This year I feel like ther are one 3 tier 1 studs. Here's how I rank 'em.

Tier 1: Alexader, LJ, Tomlinson

Tier 2: Edge, Tiki, Portis, Jordan, Caddy

Tier 3: Rudi, Jackson, McGahee, Deuce, Brown, Juilius Jones, Westbrook

Tier 4: Thomas Jones, Kevin Jones, Parker, Dunn, Rhodes(maybe), Bush (I probably left out a few)

It's interesting to see how late you can draft and still guarantee getting a tier 2 and 3 RB. I like Jordan/Rudi over Tomlinson/Parker this year. But after th 9th pick I'd be a little nervous have 2, Tier 3 RBs as opposed to just 1 and a tier 2.

Picking 12th and getting something like a Jones/Westbrook combo could be disastrous.

 

Wadsworth

Footballguy
The danger to that theroy is that the RBs should dominate the early picks this year. Last year P. Manning and C-pep were first round considerations as well as Moss and TO. What non-RBs are going to rate first round consideration in a 12 team redraft this season? Peyton Manning(and no Edge could help or hurt him) and who else? If you are sitting at the 12/13 turn-around there might be 10 RBs picked before you. That leaves you with something like a Duece/McGahee turn around if you do double RB stud. I'd not be thrilled with that.

 
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jurb26

Footballguy
It's just you... I'd LOVE to be at #4, take Portis, next best RB available and R.Moss! I'll ride that train all the way to a Championship! :thumbup:

 

cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
In the grand scheme, draft position really doesn't matter. From wherever you land, just select players that don't suck and you'll do just fine.

...and make sure to draft this years Larry Johnson and Steve Smith in the 5th and 6th rounds.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
In the grand scheme, draft position really doesn't matter. From wherever you land, just select players that don't suck and you'll do just fine.

...and make sure to draft this years Larry Johnson and Steve Smith in the 5th and 6th rounds.
Depending on the scoring system the owners that draft early in the first could have as much as 100 point advantage on the guys that draft late in the round if things play out. That's a pretty decent advantage when you consider the talent level of remaing players levels off pretty quick beyond a handful of uber studs.Keen drafting, health, and luck can minimize the disadvantage, but IMO drafting late makes a small mountain to climb to get back to even. Of course, it works both ways that if those early studs get hurt than that team loses its advantage . . .

If you really know your stuff it shouldn't matter where you draft from, but I do think the early round drafters hold a slight advantage.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
You're kidding yourself.

This is the year to draft smart, get players who won't get hurt and those who outperform their draft slot.

 

Chaz

Footballguy
This year, more than in recent past, I would rather be near the top. The RBs are going to be going early and often, as there is no compelling reason to take another position such as:

QB: Manning came back to earth, somewhat. At least enough to not see him as a no brainer first rounder anymore. No other QB is worth considering early on.

WR: There are several of similar ability. Why take a Steve Smith early when you can wait a round and get TO, Holt, Moss...?

 

Holy Schneikes

Footballguy
In the grand scheme, draft position really doesn't matter. From wherever you land, just select players that don't suck and you'll do just fine.

...and make sure to draft this years Larry Johnson and Steve Smith in the 5th and 6th rounds.
Depending on the scoring system the owners that draft early in the first could have as much as 100 point advantage on the guys that draft late in the round if things play out. That's a pretty decent advantage when you consider the talent level of remaing players levels off pretty quick beyond a handful of uber studs.Keen drafting, health, and luck can minimize the disadvantage, but IMO drafting late makes a small mountain to climb to get back to even. Of course, it works both ways that if those early studs get hurt than that team loses its advantage . . .

If you really know your stuff it shouldn't matter where you draft from, but I do think the early round drafters hold a slight advantage.
Every year I hear this and every year it's based on the faulty premise that the order guys are selected is the same as their end of season rankings. Sorry, that just never happens.I'm too lazy/busy personally, but what needs to be done is to match up a solid pre-draft ranking list (say FBG or better yet some sort of ranking compilation), and then track those player's EOY points vs draft position. For example, when people do their calculations they say well, Alexander ended up #1, so we'll assume he was the #1 pick and give X points to the "#1 slot". Wrong. Last year's #1 was probably LT, so give the "#1 slot" LT's points.

If you only do that for one year you might get some odd results, but if you do it for 5 years or so, it should tell you if there is a significant advantage to drafting early (or late for that matter). I suspect there isn't.

It always cracks me up when I see these extremely complicated drafting orders to compensate for the "unfairness" of serpentine. Some very smart guys are making a very simple mistake.

 

BigRed

Footballguy
Be a man and have a REAL draft, ie auction, and it won't matter. :cool:

Seriously in a serpantine draft I agree w/those who say it's better to draft high this year. I'd rather a 'sure thing' like SA or LT and take my chances later vs starting out with notably riskier/less upside players as mentioned.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
In the grand scheme, draft position really doesn't matter. From wherever you land, just select players that don't suck and you'll do just fine.

...and make sure to draft this years Larry Johnson and Steve Smith in the 5th and 6th rounds.
Depending on the scoring system the owners that draft early in the first could have as much as 100 point advantage on the guys that draft late in the round if things play out. That's a pretty decent advantage when you consider the talent level of remaing players levels off pretty quick beyond a handful of uber studs.Keen drafting, health, and luck can minimize the disadvantage, but IMO drafting late makes a small mountain to climb to get back to even. Of course, it works both ways that if those early studs get hurt than that team loses its advantage . . .

If you really know your stuff it shouldn't matter where you draft from, but I do think the early round drafters hold a slight advantage.
Every year I hear this and every year it's based on the faulty premise that the order guys are selected is the same as their end of season rankings. Sorry, that just never happens.I'm too lazy/busy personally, but what needs to be done is to match up a solid pre-draft ranking list (say FBG or better yet some sort of ranking compilation), and then track those player's EOY points vs draft position. For example, when people do their calculations they say well, Alexander ended up #1, so we'll assume he was the #1 pick and give X points to the "#1 slot". Wrong. Last year's #1 was probably LT, so give the "#1 slot" LT's points.

If you only do that for one year you might get some odd results, but if you do it for 5 years or so, it should tell you if there is a significant advantage to drafting early (or late for that matter). I suspect there isn't.

It always cracks me up when I see these extremely complicated drafting orders to compensate for the "unfairness" of serpentine. Some very smart guys are making a very simple mistake.
If what you say is true (and IMO some of it is and some of it is not), then there would be no difference in the NFL draft between say the #1 pick and the #16 pick. Since we have been discussing the NFL draft for months and which players will fall and at what point does the talent level drop of, I think it's safe to say there is a difference in wher a team drafts whether it be in fantasy or real football.Data is what it is. Data. But if you organize and better analyze it, it can better predict more accurate things. Even if you had LT preranked as #1 last year (and I didn;t--I had SA as the #1 RB heading into the past two seasons), you still had a chance to get him while others did not.

Sticking with LT, if you were fortunate to be in position to get him, he offers proven results and very limited risk. If yuo are picking at the 12 slot, there is a lot more uncertainty in snagging a proven stud that would score on par with LT.

In PPR leagues, LT scored 350+ points last year (and 340 the year before and almost 400 the year before . . .). The best remaining RB options for guys that did not have a pick until the double digits would be expected to score at least 100 points less than LT (and all but Larry Johnson DID). You could have hit on Johnson later on, but the fact of the matter is that if you had a league of equally talented owners, the LT owner would start off with an advantage.

As it's been often said, you don't win your league after one round and there are normally 19 or so other rounds that you have to complete. But the odds and likelihood of a top pick outproducing a later one is quite high in my opinion.

And remember that not everyone uses the same rankings and has the same opinions on players. For example, I did not have Willis McGahee in my Top 15 RB while others felt he was a consensus Top 5 pick last year, but by the time the season rolled around I had Lamont Jordan in the Top 10. People thought I was insane when I did not have Marshall Faulk ranked in the Top 10 after he had back-to-back seasons as the #1 RB. The better your pre-draft rankings are the better your yearend results will be.

If there are years when you can point out advantages to drafting early, then there is an advantage to drafting early even if some years it may not appear to be the case.

 

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