Moulds might not be gone with the new cap. I'm going to wait and see what changes are made on the offensive line before commenting on McGahee's value.
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Is McGahee worth a 4th rounder in next years FF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe T
- Start date
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
I was discussing a PPR scoring format here.I agree that Martin may not so let's agree to scrap him from the list. But I think a rookie (don't know which one) will outperform McGahee as he will be in a better situation. So let's replace Martin with that rookie.
Now we are debating whether McAllister, Jones or Dillon will outperform him (definite "no"s in your book). It seems to me that debating whether McGahee can definitely or definitely not outperform 3 of the 20 guys I listed isn't a fishing a trip by JoeT, but rather a contrarian point of view to many who post here.
That shouldn't be greeted with wiseass remarks from members and definitely not staff.
It shows to me that there are many here that will rank a RB in their top 10 with no quantitative rational and all on hype, probably the same person who had Barlow top 10 a couple years back.
That is a dangerous way to draft, taking a lot more risk than you should for the potential reward there is compared to other options you have in the first 3 rounds.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Seriously if you picked 1st in a PPR league and came to the end of the 2nd round you would pick McGahee over a Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Randy Moss (or whatever elite WR of your choice is)?Picking a mediocre RB is not the correct move in the 2nd here.
If this was a Choose Your Own Adventure Book you would be told to "Go back to page 43 and try again."
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
So you are incapable of having a discussion with someone who disagrees with you? Or is it you have no real good reasoning to rank McGahee that high so instead of taking a different view of a player you'd rather just assume someone is fishing.Maybe you can take the list of players I listed and you can tell me which players McGahee will finish ahead of in a PPR league.
cstu
Footballguy
I'm assuming that Smith, Holt, CJ, Fitz and Moss are the 5 WR's gone by the end of the 2nd. If one is available, I'd take a WR and then McGahee. I don't see how things can get much worse for the Bills offense to make McGahee a bad pick.
Picking a mediocre RB is not the correct move in the 2nd here.
If this was a Choose Your Own Adventure Book you would be told to "Go back to page 43 and try again."
BTW, McGahee was drafted 1.11 in the WSL Survivor League (which is PPR)
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=225415
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=225415
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
I think you can safely say you won't end up with McGahee. Don't see him going after Round 2.
McGahee might not even outproduce Dunn (who you might possibly get Round 4), but you won't get McGahee Round 4. It's doubtful that'd happen even in something like a Yahoo Public League.
McGahee might not even outproduce Dunn (who you might possibly get Round 4), but you won't get McGahee Round 4. It's doubtful that'd happen even in something like a Yahoo Public League.
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Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Bagger, I think you would agree with me that Joe T is not the biggest McGahee fan. He went out of his way prior to the season to reflect how wrong many FBG posters, and staff, were about McGahee last year. To a large degree he proved to be correct (although it's not like McGahee had a terrible year either, just poor in comparison to his draft position in most leagues). McGahee was nowhere near the top 5. He was more likely in the 13-15 range (even in some PPR leagues). Regardless, Joe T was on the mark when he said last year that people were crazy for saying McGahee was a top 3 RB (which many did).Coming into this year, it wasn't exactly a shock that Joe T would once again be down on McGahee. The reason I labeled it as a fishing post was because I seriously don't think Joe T is concerned about McGahee's value. On the contrary, he is probably smart enough to realize that McGahee won't be had in any drafts after the 4th round. Therefore, his apparent reflection was not about where McGahee's value should be, it really was a post trying to stir up some strong emotions from those he knows think much higher about McGahee's value than he.
Joe T's sarcasm is not exactly a new fangled machine around these parts. You know this as well as I. As you stated, this post about McGahee is an obvious contrarian point of view. Yet, I believe it was not posted in such a manner. It was posted in an obvious attempt to rally those who disagree and reflect on how poorly McGahee did last year when compared to his draft slot. Despite what you may post here, I think you'd agree.
Where do I think McGahee's value is this year? There can be a lot to change things. I'd like to wait until I know a little more about the o-line and QB. Right now, I'd put him somewhere around the 12-15 range. With the amount of carries likely to go to him, and with the potential to score plenty more TDs, I think his high end is better than his low end.
Since about 15 RBs will likely be drafted in the first 24 picks or so, that makes him a 2nd rounder in most leagues. Close to 20 RBs will likely be taken in the first three rounds. If you have McGahee ranked past your 20th RB, then you might get him in the third round.
But McGahee clearly has plenty going for him. 1) He has nobody breathing down his neck. He'll get all the rushing carries. 2) Even in a relatively disappointing season when the team's offense was in disarray and they rarely reached the endzone, McGahee was a top 15 RB. And Buffalo only had 5 rushing TDs (McGahee had all of them). Even terrible offensive teams usually have more than 5 rushing TDs. One might argue that it was the RB's fault, but McGahee has the power to rush in short yardage. The lack of rushing TDs was not his fault. Regardless, he has legitimate upside just by getting closer to 10 TDs. 3) Many guys you labeled ahead of McGahee have just as many question marks as him, if not more. McGahee has been relatively healthy and has youth on his side.
The Buffalo offense scares me this year. Losman didn't exactly lead with confidence and there's enough out there that makes me take pause when drafting McGahee. That's why I have him around the same place as last year. But any expectation that he might last until the late 4th round is fishing IMO.
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CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Even this theory is horrible, in a 3 team league your going to waste a 5th round pick on him? Assuming you take RBs with your first 3 picks are you not going to go WR's and QB's before going with McGhee?
The reason you quoted me is.... ?FWIW, I doubt I'll draft McGahee in redrafts next year. But I'm more sure that he'll go long before the 4th round in a 12 team league. Probably in the 2nd, which puts him around the #15 player selected - 5th round in a 3 team league.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
I'd take an everydown back guaranteed of goalline carries everytime over someone that isn't.If Dunn outproduces McGahee, so be it. I'll just hope my QB, other's RB, WR's, TE's, etc.... outproduce yours. Drafts aren't made with one pick, which is why I hate these 1 vs. 1 value comparisons. I nor anyone else can see the future with subsequent draft picks....no telling if so and so will even be available at your next pick.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
He's worth 4 fourth round picks or one first round pick. However you want to look at it.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Thanks for the great and well-thought out post Dave. Despite the tone or intent of the post, I think many people who are chalking him up as a sure fire top 10 pick need to look a little closer. I don't want to speak for JoeT but I don't think he is arguing that McGahee won't go earlier than the 4th. He's positing the question if he should.I value enough other RBs and WRs that I would not take McGahee in the first 3 rounds. This obviously means that he will not be on any of my teams. I just don't think it is helpful to anyone here saying that a contrarian POV is automatically fishing. There are a lot of people in this thread, who when pushed a little harder, were not able to rationalize their high ranking of McGahee. This is what I would like to hear.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
This is where you are wrong. You can estimate who will be there and you can look at your draft position and see how to build the best team.If you only look at each individual draft pick on its own without a strategy to build the team that will score the most points, you will lose some value throughout the draft.
It's the typical VBD analysis, but done over multiple rounds instead of just one. Thus it is no longer VBD but something more organic and places more emphasis on a pre-determined draft strategy of knowing what positions to hit and when, and knowing who to pass up early (even if "VBD" tells you not to) to get even greater value throughout the draft.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Posting a contrarian view is not fishing. IMO this was more than simply posting a contrarian POV, for the reasons I already mentioned.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
It seems to me he said that there would be better value in the 4th round (i.e. Parker or Dunn) and would rather have either of them over McGahee. I probably would too.The problem with your rankings of the 20 RBs that go in the first 3 rounds is that there will be a handful of guys (McGahee included) who I will have ranked much lower, and a few guys who I have ranked higher will be huge value plays in the 3rd / 4th rounds. For example, if I have Dunn ranked 12th but his ADP is in the 4th, I am waiting on that.
There are always a handful of RBs that go early that have no reason to, and if a RB I have ranked higher than McGahee is going 1-2 rounds later than McGahee, why not draft a WR instead?
SoloMatisse
Footballguy
There doesnt really have to be a discussion. If you think he isnt worth drafting until the 4th or 5th round, then just go with it. You dont need anyone's support here to reinforce your choices do you? Willis is obviously noone you want, so just pass on the guy, expect that every year he has will be like '05 and move on. You know what youre doing. By the way, how were Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones and Priest Holmes looking to you last year. Did you have all 3 of those guys BUSTING too??
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
This is a message board, so there does need to be discussions. You see, by discussing players and getting different POVs, we all learn more about players and how others here value players. This is how people grow in their thinking of analyzing players and fantasy football strategy.Furthermore, despite the fact that I don't want McGahee, I want to know why people do. What am I missing? Anything? Or is it the masses that are missing the boat?
BTW, I did have JaLew and KJ busting last year.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Not sure why you quoted my post. It had nothing to do with your comment afterward. I didn't post this as a fishing trip simply because it was a contrarian POV.I love contrarian POVs and remember proclaiming Carson Palmer, for example, as the #3 QB about a year ago, much to the hilarity of the many posters.
trollmonger
Footballguy
I wouldn't mind reading some serious discussion on this topic. He's one of those players I haven't quite figured out yet.
My assessment at the moment is that last year was probably pretty close to the floor for McGahee. The OL and QB was just horrible. I don't know if they will improve this year but I can't see it getting worse.
He had 1200+ yds and 5 TDs and finished tied for 15th among RBs in our league last year. With any improvement at all to the OL and QB, 1500/8 should be attainable.
I don't think that's top 10 but probably close. And I'm not putting 1600/12 out of the realms of possibility. That's probably getting close to top 5. But I could see 1200/5 again too.
My assessment at the moment is that last year was probably pretty close to the floor for McGahee. The OL and QB was just horrible. I don't know if they will improve this year but I can't see it getting worse.
He had 1200+ yds and 5 TDs and finished tied for 15th among RBs in our league last year. With any improvement at all to the OL and QB, 1500/8 should be attainable.
I don't think that's top 10 but probably close. And I'm not putting 1600/12 out of the realms of possibility. That's probably getting close to top 5. But I could see 1200/5 again too.
Big Score
Footballguy
Well as I said in my earlier post, I'm not going to argue very hard with anyone saying that to them, McGahee is 4th round material at best....but for me, I do think it's a bit premature to make that call.
I'd like to wait and see how the O & D looks for Buffalo after their draft, FA signings, some TC & a couple of pre-season games.
I am certain that McGahee is a talented back and being a full 2+ years removed from his knee surgery, is always a good thing for a RB's.
I'd like to wait and see how the O & D looks for Buffalo after their draft, FA signings, some TC & a couple of pre-season games.
I am certain that McGahee is a talented back and being a full 2+ years removed from his knee surgery, is always a good thing for a RB's.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
Well I think you're wrong.
I'm one that thinks VBD analysis is a waste of time. Making things more difficult than they need to be doesn't win championships (ask Peyton Manning). You can always trade starting RB's.....the demand in standard leagues will always outweigh the supply.When football is played by computer programs or robots & not humans, I'll take into this whole VBD strategy. Until then, I'll rely on what I see on the field and go with my instincts
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I was guy over at FFT constantly telling people that McGahee was not a first round pick. And I was right.
However, questing whether he is ever worth a 4th round pick is just downright fishing. I think everyone pretty much agrees that last year was an absolute disaster for McGahee, and yet he still finished in the top 15 RBs in most leagues.
I'm not sure why people would believe that he'll actually score less points next season. I can't even begin to tell you how atrocious the playcalling and blocking was at the goaline last season. Beyond abysmal. The O-line was getting pushed back off of the ball on every play and the playcalling was so predictable that McGahee often had no chance down there. He clearly has shown the ability to get into the endzone from the previous season, so we know he can be a good goaline back.
It's pretty clear to me from reading some of bagger's posts that he's just a Bills basher. For whatever reason he doesn't like the Bills. And that's cool. But just saying that he doesn't think the Bills offense will be any better and tossing up a list doesn't make great analysis.
At this point I don't have an exact opinion on McGahee's slotting. I know it will be higher than 4th round and I'd take him if he fell towards the end of the second round, even in a PPR league. (And if Chad Johnson or Steve Smith are still available at the end of the second round in a PPR league, you're playing with a bunch of goofballs). The biggest problem for the Bills over the past 5 years has been their offensive line. They have yet to address that problem. What they do in free agency and in the draft will go a long ways towards projecting McGahee for me. I already think that Jason Peters will be a pretty good tackle (whichever side they put him on). Gandy will be a servicable guard and I think that Duke Preston will end up as the center. What they do at the other guard and tackle spots will be interesting.
However, questing whether he is ever worth a 4th round pick is just downright fishing. I think everyone pretty much agrees that last year was an absolute disaster for McGahee, and yet he still finished in the top 15 RBs in most leagues.
I'm not sure why people would believe that he'll actually score less points next season. I can't even begin to tell you how atrocious the playcalling and blocking was at the goaline last season. Beyond abysmal. The O-line was getting pushed back off of the ball on every play and the playcalling was so predictable that McGahee often had no chance down there. He clearly has shown the ability to get into the endzone from the previous season, so we know he can be a good goaline back.
It's pretty clear to me from reading some of bagger's posts that he's just a Bills basher. For whatever reason he doesn't like the Bills. And that's cool. But just saying that he doesn't think the Bills offense will be any better and tossing up a list doesn't make great analysis.
At this point I don't have an exact opinion on McGahee's slotting. I know it will be higher than 4th round and I'd take him if he fell towards the end of the second round, even in a PPR league. (And if Chad Johnson or Steve Smith are still available at the end of the second round in a PPR league, you're playing with a bunch of goofballs). The biggest problem for the Bills over the past 5 years has been their offensive line. They have yet to address that problem. What they do in free agency and in the draft will go a long ways towards projecting McGahee for me. I already think that Jason Peters will be a pretty good tackle (whichever side they put him on). Gandy will be a servicable guard and I think that Duke Preston will end up as the center. What they do at the other guard and tackle spots will be interesting.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Not a Bills basher. I just haven't seen any reasoning for McGahee other than "He can't do any worse than last year." I'd rather not have that as my reasoning to draft a 2nd or 3rd round RB.You don't agree with my ranking of McGahee, fine. But I'd like to see what RBs you rank lower than him. Like I said before he is about the 20th ranked RB in my mind, and some of the RBs I have ranked higher than McGahee are guys who can be drafted in the 4th round.
Not wanting to draft McGahee until the 4th is not fishing. It is getting a good price on your draft pick for the risk he bears. That is a fundamental concept I use in drafting players.
I am not here to convince you on how to draft. There are many here that will drink the kool-aid and run right off the cliff. That just makes my life in fantasy football easier.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
I posted a few reasons why I believe him to to be a top 15 RB.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Granted.I agree with you that it is a plus that there is no RBBC. That's good.
McGahee was the #15 RB in a down season. I think the Bills will have a down season again so assuming he will automatically go up is faulty. What have the Bills done to improve? This is the same faulty logic as McGahee getting all the TDs. Sure he gets them all, but there's not much to get.
Finally, he was #15 RB, but backs like FWP, Cadillac Williams, DeShaun Foster, and Julius Jones can all easily bump him down 5 or 6 spots. The difference between the teen rankings is not a lot and typically less than a PPG. This is a flaw when stating that #15 RB is the floor. There is a very fine line between #15 RB and the #22 RB.
Because there is such a fine line, there is no reason to overpay for RB #15 in round 2 when RB #22 a round or so later scores about the same, especially when there is huge point differential potential with drafting elite WRs in the late 2nd round / early 3rd round.
If you have a late first round pick you should be getting 2 RBs back to back so you wouldn't want McGahee in the 3rd anyway. Drafting early with an LT or SA you should be looking at WRs in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
McGahee doesn't fit into that scenario either. McGahee is one of the typical fool's gold backs that allow players that should go significantly earlier than they do to fall in the savvy drafter's lap. The person that drafts McGahee is the one who settles in the second round who didn't get any of the back he really wanted or feels he has to take a second RB and bypasses value in the WR position. Inevitably that same person is struggling at both the RB and WR position throughout the year with an underperfoming 2nd round back and concurrently paying the price at the WR position.
There is absolutely nothing appealing to me about McGahee in the 2nd round, and would rather have a handful of WRs over him in the third. Where does that leave us?
That's right. The 4th round.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Reading comprehension?LOL @ "don't know which one" - that's like someone saying some late round pick will step up - don't know who, but someone's going to be a steal!
FWIW, i never ranked Barlow near the top 10, but that isn't the point.
In McGahee I see a player who underperformed last year for various reasons, many of which have changed. He's a top 5 talent, in a bad situation - sound familiar?
SoloMatisse
Footballguy
Youre a funny guy, Bag. 80 something posts isnt enough to give yourself a pat on the back?? Congrats...nicely done.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
While you are correct other RBs could go up, others still could go down. 1,425 yards and 5 TDs (his numbers last year) should be a relative downside. I think chances for improvement are greater than chances for lesser numbers. And if you simply believe his numbers remain stagnant, he has a decent chance at being a top 15 RB.So let's say you believe there's a 15% chance his go down even further. Even if his numbers go down by much, I doubt they drift lower drastically.
You may believe he has a 50% chance at his remaining about the same. Top 15 or so.
You then believe he has a 35% chance for better output. I believe the amount of his increased output is greater than the amount his numbers might decrease. It would be far from upsurd to think that McGahee gets 1,600 yards and 15 TDs. You might think it unlikely, but even RBs on bad teams have achieved this kind of output. Unlikely? Sure, but upside exists legitimately. After all, he put up those kinds of numbers just the season before last.
So then if you believe the amount of any increase is greater than the amount of any decrease in his numbers, and also believe that there is a higher likelihood that he increases his numbers than decreases them, then logic should dictate that his value at this time is slightly greater than his numbers from last year indicate. Hence, for me, 12-15 RB (instead of 15 like last year).
When I say "you" above, I simply mean someone such as myself trying to work this out in a logical manner.
Noahs Troopers
Footballguy
How did you all get sucked into the original 2 posters lame fishing trip?
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
I didn't. In fact, I called the original poster on it. Bagger then started a reasonable argument against McGahee and requested reasonable discussion. I followed suit.Have you been reading the posts on this page?
Gopher State
Footballguy
People who take him before the 4th round will be over paying for his services. Unproven QB, may lose Molds at WR, looks to me like eight+ in the box each week for Mr. MacGahee.
Kleck.
Footballguy
Bagger & Joe T,
Serious question for you two as I feel you both add a lot of fantasy knowledge others seems to overlook or not pay enough attention to.
IIRC, you guys were higher on RB's like Deuce McAllister and Julius Jones moreso than Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones last year. I agreed with McAllister, and although there were some very positive signs for Julius I disagreed there for various reasons. Now with McAllister coming back from a knee injury, and for the 2nd year in a row Julius Jones failing to stay healthy and missing 4 starts in 2005, where would you guys consider taking them in 2006?
Obviously alot will depend on McAllister's recovery, but I'm more curious about Julius Jones. Julius has been a disapointment for owners who took him around the 4th round in 2004 and late 1st/early to mid 2nd in 2005. Do you feel he has now enetered a similar situation as McGahee who shouldn't be considered until the 4th or 5th round?
Depending on how well McAllister can come back and the added question marks surrounding Julius Jones' situation, these are two guys I feel could present some nice value in 2006, I'm just still debating at which point does the value out weight the risks.
TIA
Serious question for you two as I feel you both add a lot of fantasy knowledge others seems to overlook or not pay enough attention to.
IIRC, you guys were higher on RB's like Deuce McAllister and Julius Jones moreso than Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones last year. I agreed with McAllister, and although there were some very positive signs for Julius I disagreed there for various reasons. Now with McAllister coming back from a knee injury, and for the 2nd year in a row Julius Jones failing to stay healthy and missing 4 starts in 2005, where would you guys consider taking them in 2006?
Obviously alot will depend on McAllister's recovery, but I'm more curious about Julius Jones. Julius has been a disapointment for owners who took him around the 4th round in 2004 and late 1st/early to mid 2nd in 2005. Do you feel he has now enetered a similar situation as McGahee who shouldn't be considered until the 4th or 5th round?
Depending on how well McAllister can come back and the added question marks surrounding Julius Jones' situation, these are two guys I feel could present some nice value in 2006, I'm just still debating at which point does the value out weight the risks.
TIA
Joe T
Footballguy
First of all, I'm offended that your calling my post sarcasm. I am not a fan of McGahee nor do I dislike him. I am a strictly a FF player looking for value. McGahee is overvalued already. He was over valued last year as well. The problem I have is that when I point this out, people come out of the wood work to call it fishing.I guess my posts last year that Warrick Dunn and Keenan McCardell are Pure Value were fishing too?
Just because you don't agree doesn't mean its fishing. IMO, McGahee should be going somewhere around the 4th round of drafts. I'm here trying to help people just as I did last year. But to you, another point of view is called 'fishing' and 'sarcasm' even when I've been proven right time and time again.
I don't get it...
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