Is McGahee worth a 4th rounder in next years FF (1 Viewer)

[bagger.]

McGahee is worth at a minimum the last pick in the 3rd round if he were to last that long. McGahee not in the top 36 picks? You gotta be kidding.

Why?If there are RBs I project ahead of McGahee that are still available at the 36th pick of the draft why am I obligated to take McGahee?

Remember, when you project players others will take RBs you have ranked lower. So even if McGahee is my 20th ranked RB, I will guarantee you there will be a higher ranked RB than 20 on my draft board available.

We really haven't even gotten to the WRs in a PPR that will outscore him, which is even more important if you are in a flex league like WCOFF.

I do appreciate the fact that you are now conceding he is worth the last pick in the 3rd round. Now that we are discussing the value of players within 1-12 spots of each other I think we can eliminate this fishing nonsense.

 

[On The Rocks]

i didn't read the entire tread but clearly McGahee's value can't be determined until after the first wave of free agency and day one of the draft.

based on the Bills OL right now? i would take him early in the 4th but not before that.

 

[cstu]

McGahee is worth at a minimum the last pick in the 3rd round if he were to last that long. McGahee not in the top 36 picks? You gotta be kidding.

Why?If there are RBs I project ahead of McGahee that are still available at the 36th pick of the draft why am I obligated to take McGahee?

Remember, when you project players others will take RBs you have ranked lower. So even if McGahee is my 20th ranked RB, I will guarantee you there will be a higher ranked RB than 20 on my draft board available.

We really haven't even gotten to the WRs in a PPR that will outscore him, which is even more important if you are in a flex league like WCOFF.

I do appreciate the fact that you are now conceding he is worth the last pick in the 3rd round. Now that we are discussing the value of players within 1-12 spots of each other I think we can eliminate this fishing nonsense.

Regardless of the point totals of WR's in a PPR league, you aren't going to get the consistency out of them you will from McGahee. In WCOFF, even with the flex you still have to start 2 RB's. That makes RB's extremely valuable since you need at least 3 good RB's to handle injuries and bye weeks. I'm sure you're aware that there aren't 36 starting RB's in the NFL.

 

[bagger.]

Regardless of the point totals of WR's in a PPR league, you aren't going to get the consistency out of them you will from McGahee. 

Proof? If you are going to state something like that, please back it up. I will guess that any WR you can get in the 3rd or 4th rounds is at least as consistant (or inconsistant, however you want to look at it) as McGahee would be in a PPR format.

In WCOFF, even with the flex you still have to start 2 RB's.  That makes RB's extremely valuable since you need at least 3 good RB's to handle injuries and bye weeks.  I'm sure you're aware that there aren't 36 starting RB's in the NFL.

<_< This is the fundamental flaw people make in the WCOFF format. Use the same logic you just posted above but apply it to the WR position instead of the RB position and you may see why.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

BTW, McGahee was drafted 1.11 in the WSL Survivor League (which is PPR)

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=225415

Wow. Morons.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Unbelievable. The guy was a huge disappointment last year. He's on a team that hasn't figured anything out. If anything, you can't count on him even as much as last year.

He's an average starter. That's it. I'd rather take 2 WRs in rounds 2 and 3 after getting a stud, or take stud WRs in 1-2 and take my chances with a guy on a better team in the 3rd.

He MIGHT be a 3rd round pick, but 4th round isn't much of a stretch.

 

[Assani Fisher]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons.  He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

Thats silly though. Thats like asking if you think LJ is worth a 3rd round pick. If thats the range that you put him in, then theres no chance you'll get him in any draft, so why do you care if hes a 4th or a 5th round pick in your mind? Why does it matter enough for you to start a thread? I'm not buying it....fishing indeed.

 

[Assani Fisher]

horrible

How is having an opinion on a player fishing?

It isn't fishing because you gave an opinion. Its fishing because you gave an opinion that was totally contrary to the majority, yet you acted as if it were common knowledge and you didn't present any facts to back up your reasoning. If you had made a post saying "I know that many think Willis is a 2nd round choice, but I don't believe so because..." then nobody would call it fishing.

why should you state what you think others believe. just state what you believe.do you state what others believe they should do in every poker hand? no, you state what you would do. why? because it is a waste of time expounding on what your perception of others is.

I just don't see the point in asking a question that you know 99% of the people will answer one way.You and him already knew that the majority here thought he was FAR ABOVE a 4th round pick....so what was the point of the question? A much better question that would've avoided the entire 'fishing trip' responses would've been: "Hey guys. I know everyone here thinks of Willis as a 2nd rounder, but I think hes a 4th rounder for the following reasons: xxxxxxxxxx. Please show me where I'm wrong so I can modify my rankings."

 

[-OZ-]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

Thats silly though. Thats like asking if you think LJ is worth a 3rd round pick. If thats the range that you put him in, then theres no chance you'll get him in any draft, so why do you care if hes a 4th or a 5th round pick in your mind? Why does it matter enough for you to start a thread? I'm not buying it....fishing indeed.

Exactly. A better example IMO is Peyton Manning. You may never take a QB before the 4th, but that doesn't mean he'll be there.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

Thats silly though. Thats like asking if you think LJ is worth a 3rd round pick. If thats the range that you put him in, then theres no chance you'll get him in any draft, so why do you care if hes a 4th or a 5th round pick in your mind? Why does it matter enough for you to start a thread? I'm not buying it....fishing indeed.

No it's not. We know LJ is better than that. We don't know with McGahee.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

That is not true at all. McGahee's first year playing was in fact BETTER than LT's first year starting. However, Willis fell off his second year. Now where does he go from here? Thats the big question, but hopefully you can see why theres such high hopes for him due to that first year.

 

[mcjc4]

Are there 48 players in the NFL you draft before him? All 31 other starting RB's, 12 WR #1's and Manning. there is 44 players. I refuse to believe he slips out of the first 48. 12 team re-draft.

Picking 1.1 gives me Alexander, Steve Smith in the 2nd, Buress in the 3rd, Chambers in the 4th and then get Willis at 5.1? Holy #### I am a happy camper.

Alexander

McGahee

Smith

Chambers

Plexico

Granted this is just guessing, but that in my eyes, is a pretty good starting 5. I know all 3 WR's probably won't be avaliable, but mix in a Darell Jackson or Boldin or Fitz Galloway Walker ect..into the 3rd wr spot.

My point is, Willis not going in the top 48 will give someone a ridiculous advantage.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

BTW, McGahee was drafted 1.11 in the WSL Survivor League (which is PPR)

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=225415

Wow. Morons.

one person drafted him there and you call everyone in the league a moron?also, I think Perry (the "moron" who drafted him) has had some success at WCOFF.

 

[bagger.]

Exactly. A better example IMO is Peyton Manning. You may never take a QB before the 4th, but that doesn't mean he'll be there.

You're missing the point. Nobody is arguing that he will last until the 4th round. We are discussing if (a) he should, and (b) if drafting him earlier than that gives your team the best shot at scoring the most points (the implicit goal of every person's draft I would imagine).To put it another way using your example of Manning above, let's say I want to draft Manning first overall because he will score the most points. Many people would say that I should wait to draft him because it is not gross points scored by a player that matters, but rather point differential (VBD 101).

What's the difference between the Manning and the McGahee arguments?

 

[bagger.]

I just don't see the point in asking a question that you know 99% of the people will answer one way.

Because that is how people learn.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

is the point of this thread to argue that McGahee should not be taken until the 4th round? if so, please explain why. TIA.

 

[AB in DC]

one person drafted him there and you call everyone in the league a moron?

also, I think Perry (the "moron" who drafted him) has had some success at WCOFF.

 

[bagger.]

is the point of this thread to argue that McGahee should not be taken until the 4th round? if so, please explain why. TIA.

I didn't start the thread, so I can't speak for JoeT.However, my own personal thought is that there will be RBs available in the 4th round that will outproduce McGahee, therefore it makes McGahee's value no better than the 4th round (because how could a player who scores less fantasy points be more valuable than another of his positional peers who scores more).

His 4th round value is furthermore strengthened by the fact that (a) you will have taken two better backs at the end of the first and beginning of the second round and thus do not need a 3rd back before the 4th round, or (b) you drafted a "stud" RB early in the 1st round and given what will likely be available at the WR position you will have a better team with two WRs who will be available in the late second / early third rounds and a RB that will be comparable to McGahee's value in the 4th.

Fantasy football players are commodities when thought of in terms of point production. Once you project points, they are merely a projected point total with a name attached to it. Why will I pay a price of drafting Player X in the second round (in this case McGahee) when Player Y who I can draft in the 4th round has an equal value (or approximately equal value over the course of the season)? It is foolish to do so, especially when the WR you can get in the 2nd round is that much better than the one you can get in the 4th. This situation is compounded even further when you get to a start 3 WR league.

The only reason why people will overpay for a commodity in the second round that could be had in the fourth round is irrational thinking due to bias or having incomplete knowledge of the pool of RBs (i.e. not projecting stats themselves), or good old fashioned fear that all the good RBs will be gone by the time you pick again. This is the great thing about fantasy football drafts. It is an extremely inefficient market. People overpay for players for a variety of reasons. It is my goal to take advantage of these inefficiencies, which is relatively easy to do looking at projected points, your draft slot, and players' ADPs.

This situation is the great psychological effect of positional runs. You will see how people get into a panic in the end of runs and take the worst of the run when a player at another position will be a much better fit for your team. Essentially McGahee represents the last of the top tier RB run who will score marginally more (maybe even less) than RBs that can be had a round or two later. Now not only do you have a RB that you could have replicated his point production in the 4th round, but the WR you take in the 3rd round (or 4th round) is that much worse. Which means your WR2 is that much worse. Which means your WR who fills in for bye weeks is that much worse. It is this trickle down effect of point erosion at alternative positions that represents your opportunity cost of picking player x over player y.

This is something that VBD baselines do not capture.

 

[LBH]

I would be amazed if Mcgahee slips past the middle of rd 2 in any draft I'm a part of. I would be a little surprised if he even makes it to rd2. This 4th rd talk is just insane

 

[bagger.]

I would be amazed if Mcgahee slips past the middle of rd 2 in any draft I'm a part of. I would be a little surprised if he even makes it to rd2. This 4th rd talk is just insane

Did you even read the thread?

I have no doubt that someone will make a mistake and take him in the middle of the second round.

This is our warning to you to not be the one who does.

 

[bagger.]

I am done with my philanthropy in this thread until next week.

gllll

 

[SoloMatisse]

For God's sake....get a room already.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

is the point of this thread to argue that McGahee should not be taken until the 4th round? if so, please explain why. TIA.

I didn't start the thread, so I can't speak for JoeT.However, my own personal thought is that there will be RBs available in the 4th round that will outproduce McGahee, therefore it makes McGahee's value no better than the 4th round (because how could a player who scores less fantasy points be more valuable than another of his positional peers who scores more).

There are RBs available in the 4th round and later that could outproduce half the RBs taken in round 1. That doesn't mean many of those 1st round RBs have 4th round (or later) value. A player's value has to take many factors into account, but projected performance is just one of them. You also need to consider possible upside, potential downside, injury risk, role in the offense, competition for playing time, surrounding talent, coaching, etc. If you think McGahee compares unfavorably to many other RBs on these factors, then you should drop him down your draft board, plain and simple.

His 4th round value is furthermore strengthened by the fact that (a) you will have taken two better backs at the end of the first and beginning of the second round and thus do not need a 3rd back before the 4th round, or (b) you drafted a "stud" RB early in the 1st round and given what will likely be available at the WR position you will have a better team with two WRs who will be available in the late second / early third rounds and a RB that will be comparable to McGahee's value in the 4th.

I took Tony Gonzalez in the 3rd round of my WCOFF draft last year and Michael Clayton in the 4th. They wound up being nearly wasted picks. I would have much rather taken a RB like Cadillac Williams in the 3rd or Ronnie Brown in the 4th and used them as my flex starter whenever healthy. I think having a top-20 RB as your flex player can be a huge advantage, and you will likely need to spend 3 of your top 4 picks on RBs to make that happen unless you are hoping to luck into a Reuben Droughns type player later on.Back to your point above though, it seems to me that you are not really talking about McGahee specifically. You are talking about a whole tier of RBs that fall somewhere between #11 and #20 or so. This sounds like a more general draft strategy discussion of the value of RBs vs WRs in rounds 2 and 3 than one about any individual player.

Fantasy football players are commodities when thought of in terms of point production.  Once you project points, they are merely a projected point total with a name attached to it.  Why will I pay a price of drafting Player X in the second round (in this case McGahee) when Player Y who I can draft in the 4th round has an equal value (or approximately equal value over the course of the season)?  It is foolish to do so, especially when the WR you can get in the 2nd round is that much better than the one you can get in the 4th.  This situation is compounded even further when you get to a start 3 WR league.

But like I said above, there is a lot more to a player than a static projection. Nobody can be 100% confident in their projection so you have to allow for some variability. Again, your post seems to be talking about where to draft the #15-#20 ranked RBs rather than McGahee specifically.

The only reason why people will overpay for a commodity in the second round that could be had in the fourth round is irrational thinking due to bias or having incomplete knowledge of the pool of RBs (i.e. not projecting stats themselves), or good old fashioned fear that all the good RBs will be gone by the time you pick again.  This is the great thing about fantasy football drafts.  It is an extremely inefficient market.  People overpay for players for a variety of reasons.  It is my goal to take advantage of these inefficiencies, which is relatively easy to do looking at projected points, your draft slot, and players' ADPs.

Don't you think owners who drafted Lamont Jordan in the 2nd round last year were very pleased with that selection? He had proven nothing prior to 2005, averaged less than 4 yards/carry, and played on a terrible offense. Yet he was still a great fantasy RB and led many teams to their championship. That, to me anyway, is the goal of drafting RBs in the 2nd and early 3rd round...finding that guy who can produce like a top-10 back and give you an edge over every other team in your league. Same thing with Steve Smith. Regardless of position, the key to winning leagues is to find the best value with every pick. The problem is that starting RBs get very scarce after the first 2 or 3 rounds so you wind up having to rely more and more on longshots if you wait too long to fill those spots. But, there is certainly no reason to overpay for a RB in the 2nd or 3rd if you are confident you can get similar production in the 4th. I just am not sure it's that easy to get comparable production in the 4th. Nearly every draft pick you make is a tradeoff of sorts (e.g., stronger RBs generally mean weaker WRs).

This situation is the great psychological effect of positional runs.  You will see how people get into a panic in the end of runs and take the worst of the run when a player at another position will be a much better fit for your team.  Essentially McGahee represents the last of the top tier RB run who will score marginally more (maybe even less) than RBs that can be had a round or two later.  Now not only do you have a RB that you could have replicated his point production in the 4th round, but the WR you take in the 3rd round (or 4th round) is that much worse.  Which means your WR2 is that much worse.  Which means your WR who fills in for bye weeks is that much worse.  It is this trickle down effect of point erosion at alternative positions that represents your opportunity cost of picking player x over player y.

I haven't seen any rankings yet, nor have I made my own so I'm not sure exactly where I think the dropoffs will be. If you think McGahee is the last of a tier, then I would think you'd want to get him. Isn't that kind of the point of tiering players? That you'd want to get at least one player from the tier with as late a pick as possible? That way, you are getting comparable production without overspending (i.e., value), allowing you to use your higher picks on other positions (in theory).

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

That he'll still be there in the early 3rd.

Your crazy.Then these Leagues are not good.

I'm hedging my bets of course because I think he'll go sooner than that which I think that's what you're hinting at. By the way, these leagues ARE good. Just pony up $1,500 + and you'll find out why. I've done it 3 years straight and my track record speaks for itself. I finished 16th overall out of 720 teams last year and have a positive EV since participating. I'm sorry if that doesn't equate with your home town league(s).

Congrats on your strong WCOFF finish last year Rad.

 

[LBH]

I would be amazed if Mcgahee slips past the middle of rd 2 in any draft I'm a part of. I would be a little surprised if he even makes it  to rd2. This 4th rd talk is just insane

Did you even read the thread?

I have no doubt that someone will make a mistake and take him in the middle of the second round.

This is our warning to you to not be the one who does.

I don't have to read this thread to know that getting Mcgahee in the middle of the 2nd rd is a sweet deal. There is nothing that anyone could write to make me believe otherwise

 

[56]

I would be amazed if Mcgahee slips past the middle of rd 2 in any draft I'm a part of. I would be a little surprised if he even makes it to rd2. This 4th rd talk is just insane

Did you even read the thread?

I have no doubt that someone will make a mistake and take him in the middle of the second round.

This is our warning to you to not be the one who does.

I don't have to read this thread to know that getting Mcgahee in the middle of the 2nd rd is a sweet deal. There is nothing that anyone could write to make me believe otherwise

noted.

 

[tommyGunZ]

However, my own personal thought is that there will be RBs available in the 4th round that will outproduce McGahee, therefore it makes McGahee's value no better than the 4th round (because how could a player who scores less fantasy points be more valuable than another of his positional peers who scores more).

Are you serious? So Steve Smith should have been taken in the 2nd round last year, even though he could be had in the 4th round of most drafts?According to your theory, it would be dumb of me to take Chad Johnson in the 2nd and then wait to grab Smith in the 4th, since Smith outscored Johnson.

So instead of ending up with Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, I should have grabbed Steve Smith and paired him with a Roy Williams type WR.

 

[bagger.]

However, my own personal thought is that there will be RBs available in the 4th round that will outproduce McGahee, therefore it makes McGahee's value no better than the 4th round (because how could a player who scores less fantasy points be more valuable than another of his positional peers who scores more). 

Are you serious? So Steve Smith should have been taken in the 2nd round last year, even though he could be had in the 4th round of most drafts?

No.

According to your theory, it would be dumb of me to take Chad Johnson in the 2nd and then wait to grab Smith in the 4th, since Smith outscored Johnson.

So instead of ending up with Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, I should have grabbed Steve Smith and paired him with a Roy Williams type WR.

No.

 

[bagger.]

Don't you think owners who drafted Lamont Jordan in the 2nd round last year were very pleased with that selection? He had proven nothing prior to 2005, averaged less than 4 yards/carry, and played on a terrible offense. Yet he was still a great fantasy RB and led many teams to their championship. That, to me anyway, is the goal of drafting RBs in the 2nd and early 3rd round...finding that guy who can produce like a top-10 back and give you an edge over every other team in your league. Same thing with Steve Smith. Regardless of position, the key to winning leagues is to find the best value with every pick. The problem is that starting RBs get very scarce after the first 2 or 3 rounds so you wind up having to rely more and more on longshots if you wait too long to fill those spots. But, there is certainly no reason to overpay for a RB in the 2nd or 3rd if you are confident you can get similar production in the 4th. I just am not sure it's that easy to get comparable production in the 4th. Nearly every draft pick you make is a tradeoff of sorts (e.g., stronger RBs generally mean weaker WRs).

We took him in WCOFF in the early 2nd, so yes. You are correct that you should find value in every pick. This is the point of my posts.

 

[bagger.]

I would be amazed if Mcgahee slips past the middle of rd 2 in any draft I'm a part of. I would be a little surprised if he even makes it  to rd2. This 4th rd talk is just insane

Did you even read the thread?

I have no doubt that someone will make a mistake and take him in the middle of the second round.

This is our warning to you to not be the one who does.

I don't have to read this thread to know that getting Mcgahee in the middle of the 2nd rd is a sweet deal. There is nothing that anyone could write to make me believe otherwise

noted.

lol

 

[tommyGunZ]

However, my own personal thought is that there will be RBs available in the 4th round that will outproduce McGahee, therefore it makes McGahee's value no better than the 4th round (because how could a player who scores less fantasy points be more valuable than another of his positional peers who scores more).

Are you serious? So Steve Smith should have been taken in the 2nd round last year, even though he could be had in the 4th round of most drafts?

No.

According to your theory, it would be dumb of me to take Chad Johnson in the 2nd and then wait to grab Smith in the 4th, since Smith outscored Johnson.

So instead of ending up with Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, I should have grabbed Steve Smith and paired him with a Roy Williams type WR.

No.

 

[LBH]

I would be amazed if Mcgahee slips past the middle of rd 2 in any draft I'm a part of. I would be a little surprised if he even makes it  to rd2. This 4th rd talk is just insane

Did you even read the thread?

I have no doubt that someone will make a mistake and take him in the middle of the second round.

This is our warning to you to not be the one who does.

I don't have to read this thread to know that getting Mcgahee in the middle of the 2nd rd is a sweet deal. There is nothing that anyone could write to make me believe otherwise

noted.

I think we both know mcgahee isn't lasting beyond the middle of rd2 in the rtmasters league.

 

[Your Mom]

he's pretty much undraftable

OK you are obviously joking here, but why can't there be a serious discussion about this?I have him preliminarily ranked as the 20th ranked RB and would rather take another 25-30 WRs above him, especially if this is a start 3 WR format. That puts him as an early 5th rounder in my book.

What about that Buffalo offense do you like? This is a bad question for you since you are a fan of the Bills, but with Moulds gone, Losman at the helm, that offense is going nowhere.

There are backs I can have later that will do better and I would rather have a solid WR corps than wasting early round picks on a RB.

Sorry, but McGahee should not touch the first 3 rounds, and anything after that is debatable.

Do you really expect anything else out of rudnicki? I come to expect this from him.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

he's pretty much undraftable

OK you are obviously joking here, but why can't there be a serious discussion about this?I have him preliminarily ranked as the 20th ranked RB and would rather take another 25-30 WRs above him, especially if this is a start 3 WR format. That puts him as an early 5th rounder in my book.

What about that Buffalo offense do you like? This is a bad question for you since you are a fan of the Bills, but with Moulds gone, Losman at the helm, that offense is going nowhere.

There are backs I can have later that will do better and I would rather have a solid WR corps than wasting early round picks on a RB.

Sorry, but McGahee should not touch the first 3 rounds, and anything after that is debatable.

Do you really expect anything else out of rudnicki? I come to expect this from him.

 

[Biabreakable]

is the point of this thread to argue that McGahee should not be taken until the 4th round? if so, please explain why. TIA.

Fantasy football players are commodities when thought of in terms of point production. Once you project points, they are merely a projected point total with a name attached to it. Why will I pay a price of drafting Player X in the second round (in this case McGahee) when Player Y who I can draft in the 4th round has an equal value (or approximately equal value over the course of the season)? It is foolish to do so, especially when the WR you can get in the 2nd round is that much better than the one you can get in the 4th. This situation is compounded even further when you get to a start 3 WR league.

This is a very important point that needs consideration each and every year when evaluating trends of drafts and finding ways to exploit them to your advantage.Last year by my leagues scoring (which does not award points for receptions)McGahee ended up being the 14th Rb and the 47th ranked player overall.

14. 47. McGahee, Willis BUF RB 173.60

McGahee was a 1st round pick last year in every league or at worst a late 2nd round pick. The following Rbs were drafted later than him but outperformed him:

9. 28. Jones, Thomas CHI RB 200.90

10. 32. Anderson, Mike FA RB 197.55

11. 33. Jackson, Steven STL RB 194.60

12. 41. Dunn, Warrick ATL RB 185.60

13. 42. Droughns, Reuben CLE RB 180.78

These players performed in a similar range as McGahee(no less than 1pt/game difference):

15. 48. Parker, Willie PIT RB 172.60

16. 49. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 172.00

17. 52. Dillon, Corey NEP RB 167.40

18. 53. Davis, Domanick HOU RB 167.23

19. 60. Williams, Carnell TBB RB 158.90

20. 66. Brown, Chris TEN RB 154.80

Most of these players would have outperformed McGahee if they had not missed time with injuries.

Some people see McGahee as having more upside than these players who performed similarly to him. However I am not sure why this is when McGahee's best year was not that different from last year except for the 13 TDs he scored.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 2004 buf | 16 | 284 1128 4.0 13 | 22 169 7.7 0 |

| 2005 buf | 16 | 325 1247 3.8 5 | 28 178 6.4 0 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 32 | 609 2375 3.9 18 | 50 347 6.9 0 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

In fact his ypc declined from 2004 and as has been discussed his performance is not really exceptional except for the number of TDs he got in 2004. At this point there is no reason to think McGahees supporting cast will be any better than it was last year and could possibly be worse. One thing I think that may help him is the return of TKO on defense. The Bills were definitly missing him and big Pat last year. However with aging players like Fletcher I see the defense improvement/decline to probobly be a wash in 2006 or slight improvement that could garner McGahee a few more carries.

How much upside can one expect from that when looking at what he did with 325 carries last year?

We are talking about value here and I agree with the points of other posters here who are saying that greater value can be found taking a WR or Gates in round 2/3 and then taking whatever Rbs are still available in rounds 4 and 5 instead of taking a player like McGahee (or any other Rb in his tier) too early. Let someone else have him.

If I was going to take a risk on drafting a Rb for his upside in round 2 or 3 over other great players it would probobly be a player like Ronnie Brown (with Ricky gone) or Cadilac Williams or Tatum Bell or one of the rookies who lands in a good situation. But those players will be available in the 4th round as well so why should I?

I dont see what McGahee offers as a 2nd or 3rd round pick honestly the facts being what they are.

 

[BassNBrew]

Just curious...shouldn't these guys hurling insults and demeaning others' ff knowledge at least finish in the top half of their survivor drafts before going down this path?

 

[Joe T]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons.   He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

Thats silly though. Thats like asking if you think LJ is worth a 3rd round pick. If thats the range that you put him in, then theres no chance you'll get him in any draft, so why do you care if hes a 4th or a 5th round pick in your mind? Why does it matter enough for you to start a thread? I'm not buying it....fishing indeed.

It's not at all like asking if LJ is worth a 3rd rounder. I'm sorry you feel it is fishing. Please don't click on the thread anymore if you really feel so. This is purely meant for discussion to get people thinking outside of the box here. If you want to continue to follow the lead of others here, please do so. I hope you didn't follow everyone else's lead last year as you may have been able to avoid a land mine.

McGahee was the #22 RB on a PPG basis last year. That means in a 12 team league on average 9 other RB 2's were outperforming you on a weekly basis and that's if you had McGahee as your RB 2 which you probably didn't. Is that someone you want on your squad in '06? Possibly, if you think he has TD upside as some of the others here have pointed out. If not, then you'd be better served by passing on him and letting someone else take a very poor RB2.

It's not fishing when there are logical reasons for valuing him in the 4th round. In the 4th round he has good value. Prior to that, you are probably hurting your team.

 

[Joe T]

You and him already knew that the majority here thought he was FAR ABOVE a 4th round pick....so what was the point of the question? A much better question that would've avoided the entire 'fishing trip' responses would've been: "Hey guys. I know everyone here thinks of Willis as a 2nd rounder, but I think hes a 4th rounder for the following reasons: xxxxxxxxxx. Please show me where I'm wrong so I can modify my rankings."

I choose not to think like the majority here. You should consider doing the same as it will help you win.

I'm sorry if you don't like the title of the thread.

 

[Joe T]

is the point of this thread to argue that McGahee should not be taken until the 4th round? if so, please explain why. TIA.

I didn't start the thread, so I can't speak for JoeT.However, my own personal thought is that there will be RBs available in the 4th round that will outproduce McGahee, therefore it makes McGahee's value no better than the 4th round (because how could a player who scores less fantasy points be more valuable than another of his positional peers who scores more).

His 4th round value is furthermore strengthened by the fact that (a) you will have taken two better backs at the end of the first and beginning of the second round and thus do not need a 3rd back before the 4th round, or (b) you drafted a "stud" RB early in the 1st round and given what will likely be available at the WR position you will have a better team with two WRs who will be available in the late second / early third rounds and a RB that will be comparable to McGahee's value in the 4th.

Fantasy football players are commodities when thought of in terms of point production. Once you project points, they are merely a projected point total with a name attached to it. Why will I pay a price of drafting Player X in the second round (in this case McGahee) when Player Y who I can draft in the 4th round has an equal value (or approximately equal value over the course of the season)? It is foolish to do so, especially when the WR you can get in the 2nd round is that much better than the one you can get in the 4th. This situation is compounded even further when you get to a start 3 WR league.

The only reason why people will overpay for a commodity in the second round that could be had in the fourth round is irrational thinking due to bias or having incomplete knowledge of the pool of RBs (i.e. not projecting stats themselves), or good old fashioned fear that all the good RBs will be gone by the time you pick again. This is the great thing about fantasy football drafts. It is an extremely inefficient market. People overpay for players for a variety of reasons. It is my goal to take advantage of these inefficiencies, which is relatively easy to do looking at projected points, your draft slot, and players' ADPs.

This situation is the great psychological effect of positional runs. You will see how people get into a panic in the end of runs and take the worst of the run when a player at another position will be a much better fit for your team. Essentially McGahee represents the last of the top tier RB run who will score marginally more (maybe even less) than RBs that can be had a round or two later. Now not only do you have a RB that you could have replicated his point production in the 4th round, but the WR you take in the 3rd round (or 4th round) is that much worse. Which means your WR2 is that much worse. Which means your WR who fills in for bye weeks is that much worse. It is this trickle down effect of point erosion at alternative positions that represents your opportunity cost of picking player x over player y.

This is something that VBD baselines do not capture.

great post.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

This situation is the great psychological effect of positional runs. You will see how people get into a panic in the end of runs and take the worst of the run when a player at another position will be a much better fit for your team. Essentially McGahee represents the last of the top tier RB run who will score marginally more (maybe even less) than RBs that can be had a round or two later. Now not only do you have a RB that you could have replicated his point production in the 4th round, but the WR you take in the 3rd round (or 4th round) is that much worse. Which means your WR2 is that much worse. Which means your WR who fills in for bye weeks is that much worse. It is this trickle down effect of point erosion at alternative positions that represents your opportunity cost of picking player x over player y.

This would be great if the dropoff for WRs was the same as it is for RBs, but that's not the case.Any perceived dropoff you think you are getting from a 2nd - 4th round WR is easily made up for by buying solid WRs with upside in later rounds, which you cannot do with RBs easily. IMO, there is no real dropoff in WRs once those 3-4 can't miss, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and TO in their primes are gone.

Every year I look at the list of top WRs, and every year I see a list of guys that ~50% were WRs drafted in the 6th round or later. In any given year, there will be more Muhsin Muhammads, Joey Galloways and Santana Mosses than any similarly undervalued RB.

Last year is a slight anamoly for most years, but it's still instructive. Except for Chad Johnson, the top 5 WRs were all no earlier picks than a 4th rounder.

The reason why you slightly overpay for a decent RB, is because you can afford to gamble on every other position late. Even if you have no skill at picking WRs whatsoever other than dumb luck, you should still come out with a Terry Glenn/Rod Smith type WR. Try playing those odds in the 9th-11th rounds on RBs.

I'm not saying grab 5 RBs in 5 rounds or even 3 RBs in 3 rounds, just know where the odds are.

This post had not much to do with McGahee specifically, since I don't have any concrete opinion on him in March, but with draft philosphy in general.

 

[Kleck.]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

That is not true at all. McGahee's first year playing was in fact BETTER than LT's first year starting. However, Willis fell off his second year. Now where does he go from here? Thats the big question, but hopefully you can see why theres such high hopes for him due to that first year.

FBG/Traditional 1/10, 6 scoringMcGahee 2004 = 208 FPT (best fantasy season)

Tomlinson 2001 = 220 FPT (worst fantasy season)

 

[bagger.]

Any perceived dropoff you think you are getting from a 2nd - 4th round WR is easily made up for by buying solid WRs with upside in later rounds, which you cannot do with RBs easily.

This is my favorite fantasy football myth.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

That is not true at all. McGahee's first year playing was in fact BETTER than LT's first year starting. However, Willis fell off his second year. Now where does he go from here? Thats the big question, but hopefully you can see why theres such high hopes for him due to that first year.

FBG/Traditional 1/10, 6 scoringMcGahee 2004 = 208 FPT (best fantasy season)

Tomlinson 2001 = 220 FPT (worst fantasy season)

In terms of Points Per Game, who comes out ahead?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Any perceived dropoff you think you are getting from a 2nd - 4th round WR is easily made up for by buying solid WRs with upside in later rounds, which you cannot do with RBs easily.

This is my favorite fantasy football myth.

Prove me wrong.

 

[-OZ-]

Any perceived dropoff you think you are getting from a 2nd - 4th round WR is easily made up for by buying solid WRs with upside in later rounds, which you cannot do with RBs easily.

This is my favorite fantasy football myth.

Prove me wrong.

The key to your statement is "easily". Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

OTOH, no TE truly came out of nowhere to finish among the upper half of starting TEs.

That's it. Stud TE theory for me.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

My opinion McGhee is capable of being a first round pick. But until Buffulo develops a suitable passing attack and offense he is only worthy of a late 3rd, early 4th round pick. I wouldn't touch him in first or second round for sure! He is currently 22 RB on my personal stragetic rb cheat sheet that guareentees me first place every league, every draft! haha So draft him in first or second round please.

More power to me!

 

[Kleck.]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

That is not true at all. McGahee's first year playing was in fact BETTER than LT's first year starting. However, Willis fell off his second year. Now where does he go from here? Thats the big question, but hopefully you can see why theres such high hopes for him due to that first year.

FBG/Traditional 1/10, 6 scoringMcGahee 2004 = 208 FPT (best fantasy season)

Tomlinson 2001 = 220 FPT (worst fantasy season)

In terms of Points Per Game, who comes out ahead?

Both were active and given credit for 16 games played.Did you mean points per start?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

That is not true at all. McGahee's first year playing was in fact BETTER than LT's first year starting. However, Willis fell off his second year. Now where does he go from here? Thats the big question, but hopefully you can see why theres such high hopes for him due to that first year.

FBG/Traditional 1/10, 6 scoringMcGahee 2004 = 208 FPT (best fantasy season)

Tomlinson 2001 = 220 FPT (worst fantasy season)

In terms of Points Per Game, who comes out ahead?

Both were active and given credit for 16 games played.Did you mean points per start?

sure

 

[Kleck.]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

That is not true at all. McGahee's first year playing was in fact BETTER than LT's first year starting. However, Willis fell off his second year. Now where does he go from here? Thats the big question, but hopefully you can see why theres such high hopes for him due to that first year.

FBG/Traditional 1/10, 6 scoringMcGahee 2004 = 208 FPT (best fantasy season)

Tomlinson 2001 = 220 FPT (worst fantasy season)

In terms of Points Per Game, who comes out ahead?

Both were active and given credit for 16 games played.Did you mean points per start?

sure

McGahee by 3.83, roughly.You guys win and I was wrong based on a PPS standpoint.

Regardless, McGahee is nowhere near LT's level. And that point should have been clear enough.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Regardless, McGahee is nowhere near LT's level.

I'm not arguing that point at all. LT is in a class of his own, IMO.