Is McGahee worth a 4th rounder in next years FF (1 Viewer)

[bagger.]

Any perceived dropoff you think you are getting from a 2nd - 4th round WR is easily made up for by buying solid WRs with upside in later rounds, which you cannot do with RBs easily. 

This is my favorite fantasy football myth.

Prove me wrong.

The key to your statement is "easily". Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

This is exactly my point. Every year there are both RBs and WRs who break out, but how easily is it to identify them? I think people often overestimate how easily they can get good consistant WRs late in drafts. Sure they are there, but so are RBs.If a RB in the rough is just as likely to be found as a WR in the rough, then why would you pass up on points in the second round to get a RB over a WR? Because of the reasons I mentioned before. Fear. The perception that there are more WRs who can breakout than RBs that can. It is the inefficiency of the draft rearing its ugly head again.

If you look at the WRs who you would want on your team, the list ends around WR25. Sure there will be a few below that mark who will produce, but you cannot rely on it. If you want to build a team that consistantly scores an amount of points that will win your league, you realize on startling thing (especially in a league that starts 3 WRs):

WRs are frightenly close to RBs in terms of scarcity, and the overwhelming majority of which are drafted by the 7th round. This means that you can't gamble early round picks on players who have similar value to their peers a few rounds later.

 

[spec1alk]

Definitely:

LaDainian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Larry Johnson

Probly:

Tiki Barber

Clinton Portis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Maybe:

Edgerrin James

Domanick Davis

Brian Westbrook

Rudi Johnson

Thomas Jones

Reuben Droughns

Deuce McAllister

Julius Jones

Not Likely:

Curtis Martin

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Jamal Lewis

I think this is totally dependent on the format. Mcgahee has been going on average at just under 11th overall in the zealots 12 team veteran dynasty drafts. Thats end of 1st round with start 2-3 RB with no PPR.

 

[spec1alk]

This is a bad year for RB's too. So many questions at this time. They may be answered in 4 months but having to draft now Mcgahee looks pretty good just because you know he is the starting RB for BUF and will probly get the majority of the carries.

Top WR's are becoming safer picks just because there are about 10 RBBC's in the NFL at the moment and there will probly be more this year.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Good sign. Still a lot of people who would waste a pick on Mcgahee over Dunn.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The key to your statement is "easily".

Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

OTOH, no TE truly came out of nowhere to finish among the upper half of starting TEs.

That's it. Stud TE theory for me.

Change it to more easily and you have my exact thoughts.

 

[bagger.]

The key to your statement is "easily".

Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

OTOH, no TE truly came out of nowhere to finish among the upper half of starting TEs.

That's it. Stud TE theory for me.

Change it to more easily and you have my exact thoughts.

Still waiting to see your work shown how WRs are more easily grabbed in the later rounds than RBs.

 

[BassNBrew]

The key to your statement is "easily".

Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

OTOH, no TE truly came out of nowhere to finish among the upper half of starting TEs.

That's it. Stud TE theory for me.

Change it to more easily and you have my exact thoughts.

Still waiting to see your work shown how WRs are more easily grabbed in the later rounds than RBs.

Last year's rankngs (ppg) with ADP1 Alexander,Shaun 2

2 Johnson,Larry 68

3 Tomlinson,Ladainian 1

4 Barber,Tiki 17

5 James,Edgerrin 4

6 Jordan,Lamont 26

7 Holmes,Priest 3

8 Portis,Clinton 9

9 Davis,Domanick 8

10 Johnson,Rudi 18

11 Dillon,Corey 11

12 Westbrook,Brian 21

1 Owens,Terrell 22

2 Smith,Steve 41

3 Holt,Torry 19

4 Boldin,Anquan 50

5 Fitzgerald,Larry 61

6 Moss,Santana 101

7 Johnson,Chad 25

8 Harrison,Marvin 23

9 Galloway,Joey 193

10 Chambers,Chris 70

11 Jackson,Darrell 36

12 Ward,Hines 33

Basically if you wanted a RB1, you better have drafted them in the first two rounds. LJ stands out as a flier as everyone knew the KC RB would be a top 10 back. The WR1 list is littered with guys that could have been drafted from round 4 and later.

 

[bagger.]

The key to your statement is "easily".

Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

OTOH, no TE truly came out of nowhere to finish among the upper half of starting TEs.

That's it. Stud TE theory for me.

Change it to more easily and you have my exact thoughts.

Still waiting to see your work shown how WRs are more easily grabbed in the later rounds than RBs.

Last year's rankngs (ppg) with ADP1 Alexander,Shaun 2

2 Johnson,Larry 68

3 Tomlinson,Ladainian 1

4 Barber,Tiki 17

5 James,Edgerrin 4

6 Jordan,Lamont 26

7 Holmes,Priest 3

8 Portis,Clinton 9

9 Davis,Domanick 8

10 Johnson,Rudi 18

11 Dillon,Corey 11

12 Westbrook,Brian 21

1 Owens,Terrell 22

2 Smith,Steve 41

3 Holt,Torry 19

4 Boldin,Anquan 50

5 Fitzgerald,Larry 61

6 Moss,Santana 101

7 Johnson,Chad 25

8 Harrison,Marvin 23

9 Galloway,Joey 193

10 Chambers,Chris 70

11 Jackson,Darrell 36

12 Ward,Hines 33

Basically if you wanted a RB1, you better have drafted them in the first two rounds. LJ stands out as a flier as everyone knew the KC RB would be a top 10 back. The WR1 list is littered with guys that could have been drafted from round 4 and later.

We are not comparing RB1 to WR1 here, so I am not sure how that pertained to my question.

 

[BassNBrew]

The key to your statement is "easily".

Every year there's at least a couple RBs that go very late or undrafted that end up as difference makers. Some last year, depending when you drafted were Mike Anderson, Droughns, Thomas Jones, Parker, Moore, S Davis, and Ricky Williams. All 7 of these ended up in the top 30, some did much better for a few weeks at least.

OTOH, Santana, Galloway, Glenn, Housh, Curtis and Jerevicous did this as well.

OTOH, no TE truly came out of nowhere to finish among the upper half of starting TEs.

That's it. Stud TE theory for me.

Change it to more easily and you have my exact thoughts.

Still waiting to see your work shown how WRs are more easily grabbed in the later rounds than RBs.

Last year's rankngs (ppg) with ADP1 Alexander,Shaun 2

2 Johnson,Larry 68

3 Tomlinson,Ladainian 1

4 Barber,Tiki 17

5 James,Edgerrin 4

6 Jordan,Lamont 26

7 Holmes,Priest 3

8 Portis,Clinton 9

9 Davis,Domanick 8

10 Johnson,Rudi 18

11 Dillon,Corey 11

12 Westbrook,Brian 21

1 Owens,Terrell 22

2 Smith,Steve 41

3 Holt,Torry 19

4 Boldin,Anquan 50

5 Fitzgerald,Larry 61

6 Moss,Santana 101

7 Johnson,Chad 25

8 Harrison,Marvin 23

9 Galloway,Joey 193

10 Chambers,Chris 70

11 Jackson,Darrell 36

12 Ward,Hines 33

Basically if you wanted a RB1, you better have drafted them in the first two rounds. LJ stands out as a flier as everyone knew the KC RB would be a top 10 back. The WR1 list is littered with guys that could have been drafted from round 4 and later.

We are not comparing RB1 to WR1 here, so I am not sure how that pertained to my question.

Still waiting to see your work shown how WRs are more easily grabbed in the later rounds than RBs.Fact: WRs are more easily grabbed in later rounds.If you want to stick to a McGahee discussion, that's fine, but you were the one who inferred they were superior at this game based on your "not following the pack mentality". Personally I thought that you went off track there, especially based on past performance that I've seen.

So are we discussing McGahee or why you should draft a WR in rounds 2/3?

 

[bagger.]

Fact: WRs are more easily grabbed in later rounds.

If you want to stick to a McGahee discussion, that's fine, but you were the one who inferred they were superior at this game based on your "not following the pack mentality".  Personally I thought that you went off track there, especially based on past performance that I've seen. 

So are we discussing McGahee or why you should draft a WR in rounds 2/3?

I am waiting to see how this is indeed a fact. This is currently your perception. Have you done regression analysis on the predictability of being able to grab a WR over a RB? Or are WRs just as unpredictable in breaking out?I completely agree that there are great WRs to be had in rounds 4-7. I stated this earlier in the thread. What I also stated earlier in the thread is that you need a lot of them (i.e. 4 by round 7). This means that since you need a lot of them to have a consistant team that produces enough points to win games, overpaying for a RB is pointless if there are backs two rounds later that will match his production. You may as well get started on grabbing your WRs and come back to the RB position in round(s) 3/4.

We are discussing McGahee, and specifically better alternatives to him. I thought this was quite clear.

 

[BassNBrew]

Fact: WRs are more easily grabbed in later rounds.

If you want to stick to a McGahee discussion, that's fine, but you were the one who inferred they were superior at this game based on your "not following the pack mentality".  Personally I thought that you went off track there, especially based on past performance that I've seen. 

So are we discussing McGahee or why you should draft a WR in rounds 2/3?

I am waiting to see how this is indeed a fact. This is currently your perception. Have you done regression analysis on the predictability of being able to grab a WR over a RB? Or are WRs just as unpredictable in breaking out?I completely agree that there are great WRs to be had in rounds 4-7. I stated this earlier in the thread. What I also stated earlier in the thread is that you need a lot of them (i.e. 4 by round 7). This means that since you need a lot of them to have a consistant team that produces enough points to win games, overpaying for a RB is pointless if there are backs two rounds later that will match his production. You may as well get started on grabbing your WRs and come back to the RB position in round(s) 3/4.

We are discussing McGahee, and specifically better alternatives to him. I thought this was quite clear.

26. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/534. RB Carnell Williams, TB/7

38. RB J.J. Arrington, Ari/6

42. RB Fred Taylor, Jac/7

44. RB Warrick Dunn, Atl/8

46. RB Tatum Bell, Den/9

47. RB Chris Brown, Ten/10

48. RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/4

49. RB DeShaun Foster, Car/7

52. RB Michael Bennett, Min/5

60. RB Kevan Barlow, SF/6

63. RB Cedric Benson, Chi/4

Of these guys based on last year's ADP, only Dunn, Williams, and Jordan were viable options. Towards the start of the season, Jordan was realistically a second round draft pick in most leagues. Caddy was wildly inconsistant and scored 35% of his fantasy points in the first 3 weeks (19% of the season). Dunn basically died down the stretch averaging less then 10 ppg in the second half of the season. 8.7 ppg and no TDs in the last 7 weeks.

Even if I concede you Dunn, I don't think passing on a RB in round 2 and hoping you could get Dunn was a wise move. Your late value at RB is generally driven by injury.

PS: I thought McGahee was overvalued last year and didn't have him in any of the numerous leagues I play.

 

[bagger.]

If McGahee was guaranted to rush for 3 yards every time (maximum of 25 carries per game) i would take him in the second round.

 

[BassNBrew]

If McGahee was guaranted to rush for 3 yards every time (maximum of 25 carries per game) i would take him in the second round.

Apology accepted. I'm sure we can get you back into the GOS league if you would like additonal education.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bumping to give the appropriate props to JoeT and Bagger. We may want to pay more attention to them next year.

I ended up with McGahee in one of my fourteen leagues, a survivor 16 teamer in the second round as RBs were flying off the board. He really wasn't a consideration in any other league.

 

[ChampBailey24]

Bumping to give the appropriate props to JoeT and Bagger. We may want to pay more attention to them next year.I ended up with McGahee in one of my fourteen leagues, a survivor 16 teamer in the second round as RBs were flying off the board. He really wasn't a consideration in any other league.

JoeT also told us to avoid KJ. KJ was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round in most leagues and he said he was overvalued, well Jones has been a fine RB1 so far. He was right about Willis (even though you found decent value if you drafted him in the 4th) but he was dead wrong about Jones.

 

[Banger]

LOL. Is this bring back the old threads day?

 

[Traders2001]

Hmmm, no, I think late 3rd round is about right.

Too early in my book. You'll be passing on better players.Would you rather have Dunn or McGahee next year?

NO , Dunn wont even be the starter next year .

 

[Joe T]

If you projected McGahee as the 27th ranked RB through 10 weeks you'd be correct.

What I find funny looking back on this is how many people called it a fishing trip. I think this thread clearly shows that having a well thought out opinion on a player that doesn't fit nicely into the group think around this place is often mocked and ridiculed.

The other thing I find funny is that people still don't understand the time stamp above every post. This thread is concerning the 2006 season.