Is McGahee worth a 4th rounder in next years FF (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

Obviously alot will depend on McAllister's recovery, but I'm more curious about Julius Jones.

I was higher on JJ last year than McGahee. And honestly I'm glad I had him over McGahee. That way when JJ got hurt, I had no decision to make. I threw in my back up (Thomas Jones). I didn't have to worry about playing a weak McGahee.That said, I don't like JJ this year either. He is in the same range as McGahee. I would start looking at him in the 4th.

 

[Kleck.]

Anyone have a McGahee ranking on a PPG basis.

It's nice that he finished 16 overall for the season, but 16 overall after playing every game is somewhat decieving.  But if you only look at the surface, I guess that's the way you will draft.

According to FBG scoring, 13th in total points and 22nd in PPG. Significant gap, IMO.Agreed on total points can be deceiving. PPG is a stat I use just as much, probably more, than total points.

 

[Kleck.]

Obviously alot will depend on McAllister's recovery, but I'm more curious about Julius Jones.

I was higher on JJ last year than McGahee. And honestly I'm glad I had him over McGahee. That way when JJ got hurt, I had no decision to make. I threw in my back up (Thomas Jones). I didn't have to worry about playing a weak McGahee.That said, I don't like JJ this year either. He is in the same range as McGahee. I would start looking at him in the 4th.

That's right about where I'm thinking now. Thanks

 

[Assani Fisher]

horrible

How is having an opinion on a player fishing?

It isn't fishing because you gave an opinion. Its fishing because you gave an opinion that was totally contrary to the majority, yet you acted as if it were common knowledge and you didn't present any facts to back up your reasoning. If you had made a post saying "I know that many think Willis is a 2nd round choice, but I don't believe so because..." then nobody would call it fishing.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

 

[-OZ-]

I would say third round is likely where he should go, given that he is the primary RB for his team, but taking into consideration what he did last year. That said, I will let someone else take him while I grab a top-shelf WR in the third round.

Maybe. Depends on your league's format. If you start 2-3 RBs in a non-PPR league, where does the #13 RB go? If you start 1-3 RBs and it's PPR, I can see him slipping into the 3rd.

Does anyone really think McGahee won't do better next year?

Maybe it's just me, but I see the Bills improving at OL and QB.

Defense will be better, thus allowing them to run more.

I'll rank Mcgahee as a top 10 RB in most leagues, if that means he's a 3rd rounder in your league, great.

Anyone have a McGahee ranking on a PPG basis.It's nice that he finished 16 overall for the season, but 16 overall after playing every game is somewhat decieving. But if you only look at the surface, I guess that's the way you will draft.

Fair enough. As already said, if you truly believe he won't improve, and just go off last year's stats, you may be right. If however, you look to the reasons for the poor performance, and anticipate improvement in those areas, a higher projection is justified. In the end, that's all we're really debating.

 

[-OZ-]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

 

[-OZ-]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

As much as I disagree with the original poster, IF he truly believes McGahee won't improve, the OL will remain as sloppy, Juaron won't help, the D won't be better with Spikes back and the change to the cover 2 (IIRC), Evans's improvement, Losman's possible growth, etc. Won't help make McGahee a better FF player, the statement is understandable.

 

[Kleck.]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

Maybe if McGahee was on LT's level, but they are no where close at this point. LT's worst fantasy season is greater than McGahee's best.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

As much as I disagree with the original poster, IF he truly believes McGahee won't improve, the OL will remain as sloppy, Juaron won't help, the D won't be better with Spikes back and the change to the cover 2 (IIRC), Evans's improvement, Losman's possible growth, etc. Won't help make McGahee a better FF player, the statement is understandable.

We can say this just about anyone.It's the shark pool, not what can a ten year come up with pool.

Correct me if I'M WRONG. I'm not going any where.

This B.S. needs to end.

 

[beto]

As much as I disagree with the original poster, IF he truly believes McGahee won't improve, the OL will remain as sloppy, Juaron won't help, the D won't be better with Spikes back and the change to the cover 2 (IIRC), Evans's improvement, Losman's possible growth, etc. Won't help make McGahee a better FF player, the statement is understandable.

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

 

[wannabee]

As much as I disagree with the original poster, IF he truly believes McGahee won't improve, the OL will remain as sloppy, Juaron won't help, the D won't be better with Spikes back and the change to the cover 2 (IIRC), Evans's improvement, Losman's possible growth, etc. Won't help make McGahee a better FF player, the statement is understandable.

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

here fishy, here fishy fish ... you know you are hungry

 

[Demons]

As much as I disagree with the original poster, IF he truly believes McGahee won't improve, the OL will remain as sloppy, Juaron won't help, the D won't be better with Spikes back and the change to the cover 2 (IIRC), Evans's improvement, Losman's possible growth, etc. Won't help make McGahee a better FF player, the statement is understandable.

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

here fishy, here fishy fish ... you know you are hungry

 

[Joe T]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

 

[Aaronur]

I just haven't seen any reasoning for McGahee other than "He can't do any worse than last year."  I'd rather not have that as my reasoning to draft a 2nd or 3rd round RB.

I posted a few reasons why I believe him to to be a top 15 RB.

Granted.I agree with you that it is a plus that there is no RBBC. That's good.

McGahee was the #15 RB in a down season. I think the Bills will have a down season again so assuming he will automatically go up is faulty. What have the Bills done to improve? This is the same faulty logic as McGahee getting all the TDs. Sure he gets them all, but there's not much to get.

Finally, he was #15 RB, but backs like FWP, Cadillac Williams, DeShaun Foster, and Julius Jones can all easily bump him down 5 or 6 spots. The difference between the teen rankings is not a lot and typically less than a PPG. This is a flaw when stating that #15 RB is the floor. There is a very fine line between #15 RB and the #22 RB.

Because there is such a fine line, there is no reason to overpay for RB #15 in round 2 when RB #22 a round or so later scores about the same, especially when there is huge point differential potential with drafting elite WRs in the late 2nd round / early 3rd round.

If you have a late first round pick you should be getting 2 RBs back to back so you wouldn't want McGahee in the 3rd anyway. Drafting early with an LT or SA you should be looking at WRs in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

McGahee doesn't fit into that scenario either. McGahee is one of the typical fool's gold backs that allow players that should go significantly earlier than they do to fall in the savvy drafter's lap. The person that drafts McGahee is the one who settles in the second round who didn't get any of the back he really wanted or feels he has to take a second RB and bypasses value in the WR position. Inevitably that same person is struggling at both the RB and WR position throughout the year with an underperfoming 2nd round back and concurrently paying the price at the WR position.

There is absolutely nothing appealing to me about McGahee in the 2nd round, and would rather have a handful of WRs over him in the third. Where does that leave us?

That's right. The 4th round.

I definatly like McGahee more than this guy but it is hard to argue with his point of view here as someone who drafted McGahee in the mid second round last year only to struggle at wider reciever all year long.

 

[wannabee]

As much as I disagree with the original poster, IF he truly believes McGahee won't improve, the OL will remain as sloppy, Juaron won't help, the D won't be better with Spikes back and the change to the cover 2 (IIRC), Evans's improvement, Losman's possible growth, etc. Won't help make McGahee a better FF player, the statement is understandable.

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

here fishy, here fishy fish ... you know you are hungry

no, caucasion

 

[beto]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons.  He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

Don't be confused. What I'm asking for is info, reason, analysis. You do know how to go inside the stats, don't you?

 

[Team Legacy]

I believe he's at worst a 2nd round pick in both dynasty and redraft formats. He looks like a marginal RB1 or excellent RB2 to me. But then, I didn't win any hardware last year. I'd take him in a heartbeat over K. Jones . . . Certainly a 4th round steal . . .

just thought I should post that this is coming from a McGahee Dynasty owner...small disclaimer Dave.

BTW.. I agree with you.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

OL can't get worse.

D will be improved.

McGahee will perfect his craft, under the guidence of Marv and **** and you will be wishing you took him in the first!!

I'll take him at the end of the first or the start of the second..................unless Joe T.'s in the league.

 

[bagger.]

Players I could see outperforming McGahee, which does not include a rookie that probably will as well:

LaDainian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

Clinton Portis

Domanick Davis

Larry Johnson

Brian Westbrook

Rudi Johnson

Thomas Jones

Curtis Martin

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Jamal Lewis

Reuben Droughns

Lamont Jordan

Deuce McAllister

Steven Jackson

Julius Jones

You couldn't see Cadillac outperforming Willis?

my bust, i was doing a quick ranking, and was thinking of him under the "other" category of players who could do so as well.

 

[bagger.]

PPG is a stat I use just as much, probably more, than total points.

This is a great way to analyze talent. Over the past couple years I have become a bigger and bigger fan of PPG.

 

[bagger.]

horrible

How is having an opinion on a player fishing?

It isn't fishing because you gave an opinion. Its fishing because you gave an opinion that was totally contrary to the majority, yet you acted as if it were common knowledge and you didn't present any facts to back up your reasoning. If you had made a post saying "I know that many think Willis is a 2nd round choice, but I don't believe so because..." then nobody would call it fishing.

why should you state what you think others believe. just state what you believe.do you state what others believe they should do in every poker hand? no, you state what you would do. why? because it is a waste of time expounding on what your perception of others is.

 

[bagger.]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

please don't tell me you just compared McGahee to LT.

 

[bagger.]

McGahee was the #15 RB in a down season.  I think the Bills will have a down season again so assuming he will automatically go up is faulty.

While you are correct other RBs could go up, others still could go down. 1,425 yards and 5 TDs (his numbers last year) should be a relative downside. I think chances for improvement are greater than chances for lesser numbers. And if you simply believe his numbers remain stagnant, he has a decent chance at being a top 15 RB.So let's say you believe there's a 15% chance his go down even further. Even if his numbers go down by much, I doubt they drift lower drastically.

You may believe he has a 50% chance at his remaining about the same. Top 15 or so.

You then believe he has a 35% chance for better output. I believe the amount of his increased output is greater than the amount his numbers might decrease. It would be far from upsurd to think that McGahee gets 1,600 yards and 15 TDs. You might think it unlikely, but even RBs on bad teams have achieved this kind of output. Unlikely? Sure, but upside exists legitimately. After all, he put up those kinds of numbers just the season before last.

So then if you believe the amount of any increase is greater than the amount of any decrease in his numbers, and also believe that there is a higher likelihood that he increases his numbers than decreases them, then logic should dictate that his value at this time is slightly greater than his numbers from last year indicate. Hence, for me, 12-15 RB (instead of 15 like last year).

When I say "you" above, I simply mean someone such as myself trying to work this out in a logical manner.

I don't discount this reasoning at all. I would just disagree with your %s and will likely have other RBs who finished worse than McGahee last year ahead of him this year.However, given the fact that RB 15 is so close to RB 20 or 22, it will not take much for a swing like that (most likely about 1 PPG). It is this reason that I think his downside is worse, not because he will necessarily do better or worse, but that others may close that gap and those others will be available later in the draft.

Rankings are a zero sum game. If you bump someone up, you are bumping someone else down. I am bumping others up at the expense of McGahee, and there is ample reason why, if for nothing else that I would rather have a comparable back later in the draft than McGahee in the second.

If you get McGahee in the second he must perform up to his optimal level. If I grab a comparable RB a round or two later they don't because of the other points I am getting at WR from my earlier picks.

 

[bagger.]

Bagger & Joe T,

Serious question for you two as I feel you both add a lot of fantasy knowledge others seems to overlook or not pay enough attention to.

IIRC, you guys were higher on RB's like Deuce McAllister and Julius Jones moreso than Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones last year. I agreed with McAllister, and although there were some very positive signs for Julius I disagreed there for various reasons. Now with McAllister coming back from a knee injury, and for the 2nd year in a row Julius Jones failing to stay healthy and missing 4 starts in 2005, where would you guys consider taking them in 2006?

Obviously alot will depend on McAllister's recovery, but I'm more curious about Julius Jones. Julius has been a disapointment for owners who took him around the 4th round in 2004 and late 1st/early to mid 2nd in 2005. Do you feel he has now enetered a similar situation as McGahee who shouldn't be considered until the 4th or 5th round?

Depending on how well McAllister can come back and the added question marks surrounding Julius Jones' situation, these are two guys I feel could present some nice value in 2006, I'm just still debating at which point does the value out weight the risks.

TIA

I was high on Deuce last year but neither Jones.To answer your question I really don't know where I would take either one yet. I a getting through my rankings now and they are still fairly preliminary. I agree thoug that there will likely be value with these two as fantasy players often have a 1 year memory (see Steve Smith).

I like Deuce's situation more than Jones, but both will likely be good candidates for people who have early 1st round picks getting a LT and then 2 stud WRs...grabbing a high potential back in the early 4th is always a great way to go with that strategy in my mind...but it will depend on ADPs which are not out yet.

I appreciate the discussion...it seems too many here only have one possible answer to this question, which is unfortunate.

 

[radballs.]

I just haven't seen any reasoning for McGahee other than "He can't do any worse than last year."  I'd rather not have that as my reasoning to draft a 2nd or 3rd round RB.

I posted a few reasons why I believe him to to be a top 15 RB.

Granted.I agree with you that it is a plus that there is no RBBC. That's good.

McGahee was the #15 RB in a down season. I think the Bills will have a down season again so assuming he will automatically go up is faulty. What have the Bills done to improve? This is the same faulty logic as McGahee getting all the TDs. Sure he gets them all, but there's not much to get.

Finally, he was #15 RB, but backs like FWP, Cadillac Williams, DeShaun Foster, and Julius Jones can all easily bump him down 5 or 6 spots. The difference between the teen rankings is not a lot and typically less than a PPG. This is a flaw when stating that #15 RB is the floor. There is a very fine line between #15 RB and the #22 RB.

Because there is such a fine line, there is no reason to overpay for RB #15 in round 2 when RB #22 a round or so later scores about the same, especially when there is huge point differential potential with drafting elite WRs in the late 2nd round / early 3rd round.

If you have a late first round pick you should be getting 2 RBs back to back so you wouldn't want McGahee in the 3rd anyway. Drafting early with an LT or SA you should be looking at WRs in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

McGahee doesn't fit into that scenario either. McGahee is one of the typical fool's gold backs that allow players that should go significantly earlier than they do to fall in the savvy drafter's lap. The person that drafts McGahee is the one who settles in the second round who didn't get any of the back he really wanted or feels he has to take a second RB and bypasses value in the WR position. Inevitably that same person is struggling at both the RB and WR position throughout the year with an underperfoming 2nd round back and concurrently paying the price at the WR position.

There is absolutely nothing appealing to me about McGahee in the 2nd round, and would rather have a handful of WRs over him in the third. Where does that leave us?

That's right. The 4th round.

bagger,I've read almost the whole thread now, but it leaves me a bit confused on a couple points. Obviously, you don't see any significant changes in the Buffalo offense that will enable McGahee to improve on his numbers. I will use a bit of regression to the mean to formulate his projections this off season. Buffalo was not an offensive powerhouse last year, but many people expect the team to at least regress closer to the league mean.

Also, I love players that had huge (or relatively so) yardage seasons that had poor TD totals. Why? Because, FF production from TDs is generally less predictable than it is from the prior year's total yardage production. His ADP should be beaten down to the late 2nd or early 3rd round of WCOFF drafts. If you can get him mid 3rd or later, he's a flat out steal given his upside. This whole talk about not even touching him prior to the 4th seems a bit ridiculous to me, but whatever. It seems that too much attention is being paid to his situation instead of the guy's talent or upside. In most 12 team leagues, starting RBs are mostly gone by the end of the 3rd. People complain about his low PPG totals but at the same time you might put an asterisk by the guy and remember that he's not soft at draft time. Granted, we all know it's better from an FFer's standpoint to stay away from someone who is hampered versus completely out (when you can just put another sub in). But, I don't see how you cannot expect a much better season out of him than last year.

All that said, I'm not that high on him in WCOFF/PPR leagues just because of the fact that he doesn't catch a lot of balls. He's right there with Corey Dillon (in terms of probability with where they'll be taken) except I'll take McGahee with his potential upside.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Ive appreciated this thread a great deal for what its worth. Im a Willis owner in a keeper league, so Ive got a vested interest in his performance, but I wouldnt say Ive got blinders on with him. I recognize his value and am not about to throw him away to pick up someone like Warrick Dunn. You have to maintain faith in a player's ability to a degree, but not beyond the point that you realize the rest of the factors surrounding his team situation are insurmountable. He's close to that point in Buffalo, imo, and it wouldnt hurt my feelings at all to see him get moved to another club while Im still holding on to him. That said, I dont view threads like this to simply blindly defend a player on my own team, but rather to objectively examine if keeping the guy is the right thing to do. I came into my season last year having just traded Kevin Jones away to get McGahee, recognizing the risk of a 1st year starting QB hovering around Willis, but liking the Lions' situation even less. Nonetheless, I like Willis' talent and his potential as a workhorse with 350- carry 15TD potential. That didnt pan out so well last year, but you simply cant win them all. I'll likely stick with him again this year because I just dont give up on players after a single season, and I feel decent enough at RB to carry him, but I have been reminded here by some of you LIFERS that value is essentially the bottom line. It gets tricky in keepers and dynasties because it isnt merley value you become concerned with. Willis is a hot button topic clearly. He's not a typical 'fence' kindof guy. Youre either on with him or youre not. So, Bagger this is why you may not like alot of what you read. Most guys just like the guy and would rather have him over alot of those other mid-level guys.....for whatever varying reasons they have. Personally, in a redraft, Id probably look past Willis in the 2nd, but Id be there waiting for him in the 3rd.....and who knows, maybe Id pay the price. But bottom line....I could take a couple of stud WRs in rounds 2 and 3 that I deem as "can't miss" while passing on Willis.....and get shot in the foot just as easily. In the end, its just a crapshoot.....even for the best of us.

 

[radballs.]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Why is this trend not DELETED?

What trend?This thread, even if started as a fishing trip, has brought out some decent discussion.

Sorry, I can't spell. Thread.It's like saying L.T. is He worth a 4th round pick?

I hear S.D. is going to give the ball more to the Burner.

please don't tell me you just compared McGahee to LT.

You missed the point.A top 20 back,correct in McGahee at worst.

Is going in the late 2nd round,NOT THE 4TH.

This should be deleted.

Is Manning going to go by the 4th?

He may lose Edge and Wayne and Manning don't get along.

The Oline can't block anyone.

I say Manning throw 20 TD next year.

Get The Point.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

 

[schooner44]

Assuming a 12 team league wit a standard scoring system and lineup requirements, by the end of the second round there will be probably 19 RBs, 1-2 QBs and 3-4 WRs. Asuming this is true, saying McGahee isn't wort a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick is insane---thats saying he won't be a top 20 RB next year.

There are strong rumors from WGR55 radio in Buffalo that C Mawae is leaning towards Buffalo, will be visiting on Monday and wants a deal done by Tuesday. This provides a solid anchor for an improved O-line and he can be had cheap enough to leave money to sign another FA lineman...possibly Fabini. McGahee's outlook for 2006 looks pretty good to me about now.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Assuming a 12 team league wit a standard scoring system and lineup requirements, by the end of the second round there will be probably 19 RBs, 1-2 QBs and 3-4 WRs. Asuming this is true, saying McGahee isn't wort a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick is insane---thats saying he won't be a top 20 RB next year.

There are strong rumors from WGR55 radio in Buffalo that C Mawae is leaning towards Buffalo, will be visiting on Monday and wants a deal done by Tuesday. This provides a solid anchor for an improved O-line and he can be had cheap enough to leave money to sign another FA lineman...possibly Fabini. McGahee's outlook for 2006 looks pretty good to me about now.

 

[radballs.]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

That he'll still be there in the early 3rd.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

That he'll still be there in the early 3rd.

Your crazy.Then these Leagues are not good.

 

[radballs.]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

That he'll still be there in the early 3rd.

Your crazy.Then these Leagues are not good.

I'm hedging my bets of course because I think he'll go sooner than that which I think that's what you're hinting at. By the way, these leagues ARE good. Just pony up $1,500 + and you'll find out why. I've done it 3 years straight and my track record speaks for itself. I finished 16th overall out of 720 teams last year and have a positive EV since participating. I'm sorry if that doesn't equate with your home town league(s).

 

[Mr. Vegas]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

That he'll still be there in the early 3rd.

Your crazy.Then these Leagues are not good.

I'm hedging my bets of course because I think he'll go sooner than that which I think that's what you're hinting at. By the way, these leagues are good. Just pony up $1,500 + and you'll find out why. I've done it 3 years straight and my track record speaks for itself. I finished 16th overall out of 720 teams last year and have a positive EV since participating. I'm sorry if that doesn't equate with your home town league(s).

'home town league'.I could get 12 knowledgeable guys, so I joined a Yahoo League.

I doubt these League are better then the one I'm in.

And It's Free.

 

[radballs.]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

'50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006'.Then what are the other 50% thinking?

That he'll still be there in the early 3rd.

Your crazy.Then these Leagues are not good.

I'm hedging my bets of course because I think he'll go sooner than that which I think that's what you're hinting at. By the way, these leagues are good. Just pony up $1,500 + and you'll find out why. I've done it 3 years straight and my track record speaks for itself. I finished 16th overall out of 720 teams last year and have a positive EV since participating. I'm sorry if that doesn't equate with your home town league(s).

'home town league'.I could get 12 knowledgeable guys, so I joined a Yahoo League.

I doubt these League are better then the one I'm in.

And It's Free.

www.wcoff.comPut your money where your mouth is. Good luck.

 

[Joe T]

Also, I love players that had huge (or relatively so) yardage seasons that had poor TD totals. Why? Because, FF production from TDs is generally less predictable than it is from the prior year's total yardage production. His ADP should be beaten down to the late 2nd or early 3rd round of WCOFF drafts. If you can get him mid 3rd or later, he's a flat out steal given his upside.

Good analysis and this is exactly my point in posing the question. I think Dunn and Parker fall into your criteria above as having huge yardage seasons and poor TD totals. So my question is why not take those guys after McGahee and get a back who did the same thing as McGahee or better on fewer touches?

That's why thinking McGahee is a steal in the 3rd is not really true since there will be other similar or better backs available there.

But I do like your line of thinking...

 

[Joe T]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

I would take this deal on a PPG basis only.PPG, I'd say odds are he won't be worth a 3rd rounder.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Also, I love players that had huge (or relatively so) yardage seasons that had poor TD totals. Why? Because, FF production from TDs is generally less predictable than it is from the prior year's total yardage production. His ADP should be beaten down to the late 2nd or early 3rd round of WCOFF drafts. If you can get him mid 3rd or later, he's a flat out steal given his upside.

Good analysis and this is exactly my point in posing the question. I think Dunn and Parker fall into your criteria above as having huge yardage seasons and poor TD totals. So my question is why not take those guys after McGahee and get a back who did the same thing as McGahee or better on fewer touches?

That's why thinking McGahee is a steal in the 3rd is not really true since there will be other similar or better backs available there.

But I do like your line of thinking...

Why McGahee instead of Dunn and Parker using that argument? Well, because McGahee doesn't get pulled at the goaline first of all. Both Dunn and Parker get pulled frequently at the goaline. They're both better suited for running between the 20s and their coaches know that. McGahee has shown that he can punch it in though. Last year he was horrible at it but he was great in 2004. As a Bills fan I can tell you that the playcalling at the goaline was awful last season and the o-line was awful as well. I believe that the playcalling this year will be better and I am hoping that the O-line will be better as well. I know that it's a high priority of the Bills to create a better line for McGahee to run behind.

I'm not trying to hype McGahee and everyone has to do what they think is right. McGahee is definitely a guy that if you don't have confidence in him, you won't end up drafting him most likely. He's going to get taken by the early part of the 3rd round at least in just about every single league.

Last year I had him in about the 12-14 range for RBs which was pretty close. There were a pretty good number of us Bills fans over on FFToday that kept cautioning people that had him as a top 10 pick.

I don't have my rankings even started yet this year though. IMO, it's a waste of time to do it before FA even starts. FA and the draft can make such a big difference in a team that it's not even worth the time. But I would imagine I'll have him pretty much in that 12-14 range again.

 

[bagger.]

bagger,

I've read almost the whole thread now, but it leaves me a bit confused on a couple points. Obviously, you don't see any significant changes in the Buffalo offense that will enable McGahee to improve on his numbers. I will use a bit of regression to the mean to formulate his projections this off season. Buffalo was not an offensive powerhouse last year, but many people expect the team to at least regress closer to the league mean.

Also, I love players that had huge (or relatively so) yardage seasons that had poor TD totals. Why? Because, FF production from TDs is generally less predictable than it is from the prior year's total yardage production.

Totally agree about yardage being more predictable than TDs. However, the upside for team rushing TDs is limited IMO.

His ADP should be beaten down to the late 2nd or early 3rd round of WCOFF drafts. If you can get him mid 3rd or later, he's a flat out steal given his upside. This whole talk about not even touching him prior to the 4th seems a bit ridiculous to me, but whatever.

The reason why I say that is because there are WRs (especially in a format like WCOFF) that I would much rather have than a RB who won't catch a lot of balls. The only scenario I could see grabbing McGahee in the 3rd round in WCOFF is if I took two RBs late first / early second and wanted to use McGahee as my flex. I would not want McGahee as one of my two primary RBs.

It seems that too much attention is being paid to his situation instead of the guy's talent or upside.

Situation dictates upside in terms of fantasy production. Lamont Jordan backing up Martin in NY makes him worthless. Going to the Raiders he is a 1st round caliber back in PPR leagues. Likewise, a RB on a team with a dreadful offense is going to constrain the upside I project him to achieve.

In most 12 team leagues, starting RBs are mostly gone by the end of the 3rd. People complain about his low PPG totals but at the same time you might put an asterisk by the guy and remember that he's not soft at draft time. Granted, we all know it's better from an FFer's standpoint to stay away from someone who is hampered versus completely out (when you can just put another sub in). But, I don't see how you cannot expect a much better season out of him than last year.

I look at the second half of last season and see a RB who hit the wall. His projection plummeted.

All that said, I'm not that high on him in WCOFF/PPR leagues just because of the fact that he doesn't catch a lot of balls. He's right there with Corey Dillon (in terms of probability with where they'll be taken) except I'll take McGahee with his potential upside.

Well that's my point. I am talking about PPR leagues and there are backs like Dunn who I would rather have, who could be had later.However, regardless of preference it is a joke that some people think that this is a fishing trip. What we are discussing here is not out of the realm of possibility, but yet many here cannot fathom the possibility of McGahee being worth a 4th round pick, even if he is drafted earlier.

At least you, Kleck and Gringo have at least discussed this rationally with me unlike many others who just dismiss this whole conversation as a fishing trip.

 

[bagger.]

I'm willing to bet bagger or anyone else that McGahee will be taken before the end of the second round in more than 50% of WCOFF leagues in 2006 (assuming no injury prior to the season). Now, whether that's where his true value lies or not is yet to be determined.

On top of that, I'll say that his ACTUAL performance will make his value worth inside of a 3rd round pick (WCOFF scoring and assuming that he doesn't miss any games - or PPG calculated with 8 games or more). In other words, his value will be worth the 3.12 or better this year assuming he doesn't miss any games.

Deal or no deal?

I am sure he will be drafted that high. That's a mistake but that's ok. I am willing to profit from that.As far as his year-end performance, people are saying it is laughable for him to even be in the 3rd. Make it 2.12 and that is a fair bet.

If he is valued at 3.11 at the end of the year that is more proving my point than some of the others.

 

[bagger.]

You missed the point.

A top 20 back,correct in McGahee at worst.

Is going in the late 2nd round,NOT THE 4TH.

This should be deleted.

Is Manning going to go by the 4th?

He may lose Edge and Wayne and Manning don't get along.

The Oline can't block anyone.

I say Manning throw 20 TD next year.

Get The Point.

I would not draft Manning in the first 4 rounds so why do I care where he is being drafted.Your kneejerk reaction slotting RB20 at the end of the 2nd round does not take into account a complete draft strategy. If you are at the end of the 2nd round you have better options to draft than the bottom of the barrel of good RBs. Furthermore what you fail to realize, and is one of the fundamental underlying concepts of value, is that when you get to the end of the second round, you will (or should) have RBs who are ranked 12th or 13th who are not expected to be drafted for another round or so. The first 20 RBs drafted should not be the first 20 RBs on your ranking list. People will reach and make mistakes, especially in PPR leagues where people (even in high stakes leagues like WCOFF) do not take into consideration scoring format changes from "traditional" leagues.

I apologize if this thread is confusing you because it offers a different line of thinking. at continually asking for this thread to be deleted.

 

[bagger.]

Assuming a 12 team league wit a standard scoring system and lineup requirements, by the end of the second round there will be probably 19 RBs, 1-2 QBs and 3-4 WRs. Asuming this is true, saying McGahee isn't wort a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick is insane---thats saying he won't be a top 20 RB next year.

This is incorrect. This is saying that the RB20 is not a good pick at the end of the 2nd round. There is a difference. It is also especially not a good pick at the end of the 2nd round when there will be RBs who you *should* rank higher than RB20 but will be ranked lower by the masses.

 

[bagger.]

McGahee has shown that he can punch it in though. Last year he was horrible at it but he was great in 2004.

Basing fantasy projections on 1 year of production sends up a big red flag to me for any RB I want to draft in the first couple rounds. There is a lot of risk there that you aren't getting compensated for.

 

[GroveDiesel]

McGahee has shown that he can punch it in though. Last year he was horrible at it but he was great in 2004.

Basing fantasy projections on 1 year of production sends up a big red flag to me for any RB I want to draft in the first couple rounds. There is a lot of risk there that you aren't getting compensated for.

And yet you're basing your projections based on last season, correct? And as I also said in my post, I'm not making any projections at this point. I'm just pointing out that not only has he shown the ability to be a goaline back, but that Buffalo will be using him at the goaline as opposed to guys like Dunn and Parker. The Bills failed to convert at the goaline quite a few times last season. My guess is that they'll punch a few more of those in this season if the O-line is improved. You believe otherwise and that's fine, but I'm not sure how me pointing out that McGahee scored quite a few goaline TDs in 2004 throws up a red flag for you. To me, it's a red flag that you would prefer to ignore 2004 completely without any explanation of why you are doing so.

 

[bagger.]

McGahee has shown that he can punch it in though.  Last year he was horrible at it but he was great in 2004. 

Basing fantasy projections on 1 year of production sends up a big red flag to me for any RB I want to draft in the first couple rounds. There is a lot of risk there that you aren't getting compensated for.

And yet you're basing your projections based on last season, correct?

No. I base my projections on a 3 year weighted average plus some adjustments.

And as I also said in my post, I'm not making any projections at this point. I'm just pointing out that not only has he shown the ability to be a goaline back, but that Buffalo will be using him at the goaline as opposed to guys like Dunn and Parker.

The Bills failed to convert at the goaline quite a few times last season. My guess is that they'll punch a few more of those in this season if the O-line is improved. You believe otherwise and that's fine, but I'm not sure how me pointing out that McGahee scored quite a few goaline TDs in 2004 throws up a red flag for you. To me, it's a red flag that you would prefer to ignore 2004 completely without any explanation of why you are doing so.

Why do you automatically assume McGahee will punch it in the goalline this year?What throws a red flag to me is only one year of "good" data. Which is the real McGahee (or even real Bills offense)? 2004 or 2005? Tough to tell and a blended average of the two still has enough risk to me not to take him early.

This is simply risk mitigation when drafting.

 

[GroveDiesel]

No. I base my projections on a 3 year weighted average plus some adjustments.

If your starting point is a 3 year weighted average, I'm guessing that you're making a fairly significant downward adjustment to McGahee then. Because if you're using PPG his ranking was probably around 22 or so for RBs this past season but in the top 5 possibly for 2004. If you're using total points, than 2004 would rank him below average while 2005 would have him between 14-16. So either way you're making a downward adjustment. Which brings me to your second point.

Why do you automatically assume McGahee will punch it in the goalline this year?

What throws a red flag to me is only one year of "good" data. Which is the real McGahee (or even real Bills offense)? 2004 or 2005? Tough to tell and a blended average of the two still has enough risk to me not to take him early.

This is simply risk mitigation when drafting.

If you're adjusting McGahee down then you're adjusting someone else up for some reason. And that's fine, but pretty much every RB after the top 10 is going to have some kind of risk. Now if you're just talking general strategy and would almost always take a WR over a RB in those 2nd and 3rd rounds that's fine. But even in the list that you posted earlier you are adjusting Lamont Jordan and Steven Jackson up which means you are not mitigating the risk at all. You don't have much full season data on either guy and yet you believe that they will definitely score more points than McGahee. You also list DD and Westbrook as "maybe" ahead of McGahee and yet both of them have never made it through a season healthy.

There's going to be risk on every pick of course, but anybody outside of the top 10 RBs are going to have some fairly significant questions surrounding them.

If it's your belief that McGahee is not a 2nd or 3rd round pick because of the risk attached that is fine, but from that argument I would expect that you would not be willing to take any RB outside of the top 10 or so in those rounds. If that's not the case, then there is another reason that you just don't like McGahee. And that's fine because we all have personal feelings on players, but let's not pretend that there is a whole lot of support statistically for putting McGahee in the 4th round.

ETA: And I'm not sure why you would ask me about "assuming" that McGahee will score more TDs. I'm not assuming, I'm projecting, which is what you are doing as well. I have given my reasons for why I believe he will have more TDs next season. So far you've given your reasons too. I happen to believe that my reasons are more valid than yours. You believe that yours are more valid than mine. That's fine and I expect everyone to have different projections. It'd be nice if we could keep the topic centered more around the assumptions we're making about the circumstances around him rather than arguing about strawman risk arguments. (Not directed at you specifically, just a general statement about the direction of the thread).

 

[cstu]

The problem is that the original post gave none of those reasons. He just cast the statement out like a piece of chum.

The originial post didn't make a statement... it was an open ended question meant for discussion.

Is McGahee worth a fourth round pick? That is the question.

Then I stated... I'm working on valuing him at this point as I haven't quite pinned it down. I can be swayed at this point because I have an open mind to his value.

If the question was is he worth a 2nd round pick, it would be worth discussing. McGahee is worth at a minimum the last pick in the 3rd round if he were to last that long. McGahee not in the top 36 picks? You gotta be kidding.