What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Is Phillip Dorsett the Shark move in NE? (1 Viewer)

Truebluey

Footballguy
I know Hogan has been shooting up the ADP ranks with Edelman being out for 4 weeks and not much apparent depth behind him.

But Dorset looked good again tonight and looks like being the WR2 for those 4 weeks, and perhaps a WR3 from there on.

Given the cornerbacks Hogan will be facing in weeks 1-4:
1. vs HOU  Johnathan Joseph, 75.7 grade

2. vs Jax  Jalen Ramsey, 91.8 grade

3. vs Detroit   Darius Slay, 88.1 grade

4. vs MIA   OK that's a good start  :-)

I wonder if Dorset isn't a sneaky good bet to put up some nice stats in the first month of the season? Brady knows how to find the open man.

 

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
I thought about it - that maybe Dorsett could act as a bootleg Cooks for a month since parts of their game intersect. But then I realized that the proposition of starting a bootleg Cooks is very, very scary from a variance standpoint. Between Gronk, Hogan, White, Burkhead and who knows, maybe even Hollister if BB feels like using a lot of 12 personnel that week or Patterson if he's feeling frisky, Dorsett could find himself with no target share. 

So sure, I could see a 3/60/1 line in any given game but it seems much more likely that he'll just goose egg you. 

 

Boston

Footballguy
I really do think the Pats want him to succeed...they just seem to be giving him every opportunity to become a contributor...while I do think there is a chance he can be somewhat of a factor for them in real football I just don’t see him being fantasy relevant...if you are going to roll the dice on Patriot WR I would go with Patterson...he just looks the part...he really is a physical specimen...that being said it is a long shot but if you have a deep bench he could be worth stashing for the first few weeks...Edelman will be gone and if he is ever going to do anything that will be his chance...if he doesn’t you cut him and move on...

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Worthwhile best ball flier, but not in a standard league. I dont think this is complicated - get Gronk, Hogan, and Edelman. Ignore the rest. 

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
The question was perhaps phrased in a manner that generated a lot of snarky answers, since Dorsett isn't likely "the shark move."

But some of us play in deep leagues in which Dorsett is very much worth rostering. For example, I play in a 12 team PPR dynasty league in which 101 WRs are rostered right now. I picked up Dorsett, and IMO he is worth holding at least during Edelman's absence to see if he emerges with a role. If not, no harm, I will drop him when bye week waiver churn starts in earnest.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
IMO, the receiving options / targets in NE (in order) will be: Edelman, Gronk, White, Hogan, Burkhead, Dorsett, Patterson, Michel, second TE (in this scenario, Decker doesn't make the team). 

I don't think Dorsett jumps to the head of the line because Edelman is out. I tend to think everyone will move up one spot unilaterally. I think last night they were making an effort to get the ball to secondary guys just to see how they looked. I also think they could still add someone by trade or by free agency.

Ad for JWB's question, Dorsett could be a Top 100 WR in JE11's absence. Not sure he would be fantasy playable unless you start a ton of receivers or if you have a lot of injuries. Even though Dorsett might be more involved in the offense, I think in the time Edelman is suspended Patterson might get a couple of TD's from mismatches or blown coverage. Not sure which is more likely . . . Dorsett 4 catches for 42 yards, no TD or Patterson 2 catches, 22 yards, and a TD.

 

Bri

Footballguy
In the Dorsett thread I stated how I wasn't a fan of his career thus far. FBG's email had a Worcester (not Boston but small town paper) naming Dorsett a starter. I dug some and the small town reporter isn't exactly wrong or anything. There's tons of him running with the ones. I spent three rounds avoiding him and then drafted him late. 

The discussions about him have been comparing him to this elite WR or that dependable starter and...cmon, it's a late round flyer. I'm fine with any late round flier running with the ones.

The Pats have a super efficient offense in which Brady is a wizard. We know this, but it works best when they take the occasional downfield shot. I don't much care for Dorsett's all around game, but he can probably get open deep a few times a game. Will Brady throw it? I don't know. It's not like he's Moss or Cooks but they do need him to catch one every now and then. If BB is liking this kid that has had a meh NFL career then....whatever it's a late pick.

Quite candidly, reading of Dorsett made me draft Trent Taylor and feel oddly good about an 18th rounder. Watch some videos. He's real good at being the quick guy to a spot and the BB trained Jimmy G hits him in stride. It's very Patriot-like. I never bothered googling Taylor's 40 time. He's quick like Welker or Edelman. Whether it's measurable or not, I don't care. He's getting to that spot, turning his hips, running inside the defender. Call me crazy but Trent Taylor is the WR the Pats have been trying to draft for years. I don't really care for many WRs they've drafted and he just looks like what I imagine they would want to replace Edelman someday.

I've never seen Dorsett (or Patterson) use their speed efficiently and/or have some savvy to their game. A guy like Ted Ginn Jr is who they remind me of. I don't know why their can't be a conversation with some veteran WR where he points out the finer points of the game and these speed demons become wiser, but...that's life I guess. You watch ODB or Antonio and you see how to properly use speed. I just don't get why other WRs can't see that and try to emulate it and eventually improve. 

 

Stealthycat

Footballguy
If Dorsett has a good stat line week 1 SELL

its NE .... Gronk and Brady can be consistent, everyone else is interchangeable parts - and it works, but not great for fantasy

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
If Dorsett has a good stat line week 1 SELL

its NE .... Gronk and Brady can be consistent, everyone else is interchangeable parts - and it works, but not great for fantasy
This isnt 100% true...the welker/edelman positiin has been consistent ....i expect hogan to be good for 4 weeks....then julian comes back

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
Worthwhile best ball flier, but not in a standard league. I dont think this is complicated - get Gronk, Hogan, and Edelman. Ignore the rest. 
This is the best advice. I could see a week where Dorsett throws up a Kenny Stills like line of 5 for 170 and 2 long touchdowns and wins you a week. Otherwise I see a lot of 2 for 17 lines and an occasional 3 for 65 and a touchdown. 

If you set the over under at 4.5 games where he has over 10 points in a game in ppr scoring I am pretty confidently taking the under. 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
What makes NE's offense hard to read is that most of the time there are key players out and that distorts the numbers. Gronk and Edelman have been out a ton, their RBs are often banged up, and the offense keeps humming along. It's really not that complicated. The guys that play are going to do well fantasy wise, but for the second tier guys it will take injuries or suspensions to get them value IN THOSE SPECIFIC WEEKS that other guys are out, usually multiple guys.

Once Edelman comes back and if the Patriots have a fully stocked cupboard of receivers, tight ends, and running backs, then I think we will see Dorsett become mostly an after thought (with an occasional decent week based on the mismatches that NE can create).

Fantasy wise, there is no harm adding him as a late round sleeper or stash to see how he does. If he does well, maybe he could be part of a trade to upgrade at another position. Maybe you keep as roster depth or as a bye week filler. But given all the options NE has to move the football, if I owned Dorsett, I would hope I didn't have to use him or my receiving corps would have had a lot of injuries.

 

Hairy Snowman

Footballguy
I have been drafting him as a deep sleeper since April.  After 25th round generally.  They traded for him.  He is a former 1st round draft pick.  Those facts alone should tell you something about NE's thinking.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I have been drafting him as a sleeper since April.  They traded for him.  That should tell you something.  
They kind of traded for him. They traded Brissett, who they were likely going to cut, for Dorsett, who the Colts were likely going to cut. Yes, that counts as a trade, but it was mostly an exchangeof players that weren't going to stick with their original teams.

NE has had multiple success stories in taking retreads or UDFA's and turning them into contributors . . . Lewis, Welker, Butler to list a few. It would not be shocking if Dorsett played a larger role than it appears he will have. My personal opinion is I am not sure he can handle the complexity of the playbook and I am not sure he has the best hands.

There are certainly worse darts to throw out at the end of the draft.

 

Hairy Snowman

Footballguy
Brissett hasn't sucked IMO.  If they got value, then he should be good.  And has been in the system since last year.

I agree on the complexities of the playbook being an issue, but only to a degree.  And that is to the degree that Brady, after over a dozen years in the offense, tries to make adjustments at the line. Otherwise, in the NE system, I think players are plug and play.

The hands are what got him out of Indy.  They are obviously a concern.  The speed is plain to see when he catches the ball.

Again, thinking deep sleeper that will probably be most productive early in the season.       

 

Boone22

Footballguy
What are thoughts on Dorsett longer term for Dynasty?   Hogan is a FA in 2019 and Edelman in 2020. NE has an option for Dorsett in 2019 (FA in 2020). Does anyone think NE may not re-sign Hogan and Dorsett becomes the #2 beh8nd Edelman next year?

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Before people get their hopes up on Dorsett, we still have two weeks before the seasons starts. At this point I am not convinced he is a lock to make the team. I agree that if there were a game today he'd be on the roster, but a lot can still change, especially this time of year in NE.

Dorsett and Decker are probably fighting for one roster spot. BB has been talking up Decker doing well since he got here and they brought him in because he spent a year in DEN with McDaniels and is said to have retained a lot of the system. Dorsett did well early in camp and then came back down to earth. 

People are looking at things a little skewed. Just because NE dropped Mitchell, Matthers, and Britt doesn't necessarily mean Dorsett suddenly got that much better. In recent weeks in camp, Dorsett has had some trouble getting on the same page with Brady and had several drops back when practice was still open to the public. He seemed to perform better with the second unit and other QB's. I still think him playing against CAR was to get him some live action with Brady and should not be viewed as the new paradigm in the NE offense just yet.

To explore possible outcomes (ranging anywhere from possible to improbable) . . .

- NE adds a player cut from another team. Not knowing who is out there, hard to guess who.
- NE signs a current free agent. Brandon LaFell comes to mind. Did pretty well when he was in NE and could probably be had for a song. Kenny Britt also comes to mind. They loved him in the spring but he got hurt and couldn't get back on the field. He should know a lot of the playbook. If he recovers and is still unsigned, I wouldn't rule out him signing after Week 1 when contracts become week to week and are not guaranteed.
- NE acquires another WR by trade. That could be a real name, a guy about to be cut like Dorsett was last season, a prospect that is blocked on another team, a guy that just didn't work out and needs a change of scenery (like LaFell at the time), or someone as a short term rental (like Cooks last year).

This is partly why I post all the time that the best time to evaluate NE is once their 53-man opening day roster is set (and they could still tweak things the week after).

As far as the first 4 weeks go with Edelman out, it wouldn't shock me if James White had 25-30 receptions in the time.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Call me crazy, but I think Patterson is the shark move
I believe Patterson has not caught a pass from Brady longer than 3 yards so far. I remember reading an article that mentioned that Patterson had not even been targeted by Brady in practice except for the little dump offs that we have seen him run. Maybe that's changed and I missed it, but he wasn't exactly Brady's preferred target in camp, at least as of last week. Maybe he has done more behind closed doors and they plan to unleash him in the regular season.

 

elguapo07

Footballguy
To me Dorsett is looking more and more like the guy that could go 60/700/6 for them.  Brady seemed to look his way last game and could have the Amendola role. 

 

Hankmoody

Footballguy
Anarchy99 said:
They kind of traded for him. They traded Brissett, who they were likely going to cut, for Dorsett, who the Colts were likely going to cut. Yes, that counts as a trade, but it was mostly an exchangeof players that weren't going to stick with their original teams.

NE has had multiple success stories in taking retreads or UDFA's and turning them into contributors . . . Lewis, Welker, Butler to list a few. It would not be shocking if Dorsett played a larger role than it appears he will have. My personal opinion is I am not sure he can handle the complexity of the playbook and I am not sure he has the best hands.

There are certainly worse darts to throw out at the end of the draft.
Even if this is true, then they traded for a guy they didn't cut, thus requiring them to cut someone else.  So maybe they didn't trade Brissette for him, but they gave up something to get him.  Opportunity cost is intractable and this is a bad hair to split.  They chose him, period.

 

Crazysight

Footballguy
I just picked him up off waivers but remain skeptical.  Then again he’s only 25, speed nearly at the level of a John Ross with no depth at receiver, Edelman suspended four games and coming off serious injury at 32 years old and Brady wanting to play for a few more years. Brady has had good things to say about him as well.  Worth a stab imo, just not going to get my hopes up.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Wooters said:
The question was perhaps phrased in a manner that generated a lot of snarky answers, since Dorsett isn't likely "the shark move."

But some of us play in deep leagues in which Dorsett is very much worth rostering. For example, I play in a 12 team PPR dynasty league in which 101 WRs are rostered right now. I picked up Dorsett, and IMO he is worth holding at least during Edelman's absence to see if he emerges with a role. If not, no harm, I will drop him when bye week waiver churn starts in earnest.





1
I play in several 12-16 team, 50 man roster, IDP, contracts, 22 starting lineup leagues that no one cares about.  

Sure, if your league is large enough, Dorsett is rosterable.  But that wasn't the question.  The question was whether or not Dorsett was "the shark move".  The answer, in any league size, is emphatically...no. 

In a league as large as the one you described, and certainly the ones I play in, sure he's rosterable.  But he's only rosterable because of the sheer depth of the league.  That doesn't mean it's a shark move.  It just means that he's likely a little less sh**** than the next turd sandwich taken after him. 
Yes, I pointed out that it is not likely to be a "shark move." I was attempting to move the conversation in a more useful direction than all of the initial snarky responses.

 

Snorkelson

Footballguy
Wooters said:
I play in several 12-16 team, 50 man roster, IDP, contracts, 22 starting lineup leagues that no one cares about.  

Sure, if your league is large enough, Dorsett is rosterable.  But that wasn't the question.  The question was whether or not Dorsett was "the shark move".  The answer, in any league size, is emphatically...no. 

In a league as large as the one you described, and certainly the ones I play in, sure he's rosterable.  But he's only rosterable because of the sheer depth of the league.  That doesn't mean it's a shark move.  It just means that he's likely a little less sh**** than the next turd sandwich taken after him.  
I tend to agree, there have been a lot of receivers over the years that get hyped on the pats, and they have all disappointed. However there is a void there even when Edelman comes back. Targets from last year up for grabs, all it takes is an Edelman having problems getting back or a hogan injury and he could be valuable by default. Wouldn’t fault someone for taking a flier on him, won’t get into shark semantics. 

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
He has a lot more to offer athletically than Hogan, or any WR on the Pats roster for that matter. That doesn't always matter in New England. But they do to take advantage of talented players if the stuff between the ears coordinates.

Dorsett's definitely worth a shot in deep leagues and BB. He's poised to at least serve as the deep threat role which will give him a few good games just like everybody else on the roster.

 

TheFanatic

Footballguy
I'm more optimistic than most here. I'm not even considering starting him any time soon, but I think he has the measurables plus a really great opportunity to earn the confidence of Tom Brady over the next 4 weeks. It's a long shot, but I'm hopefully optimistic. 

 

Nero

Footballguy
His athletic profile is almost identical to Cooks.  He is the reason they let Cooks go, imo.  I think he is going to be given the chance to replace Cooks' production.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
His athletic profile is almost identical to Cooks.  He is the reason they let Cooks go, imo.  I think he is going to be given the chance to replace Cooks' production.
IMO, Cooks production was inflated due to injuries to 1) Edelman (entire season), 2) Hogan (half the season), 3) Mitchell (entire season, and 4) Burkhead (half the season).

This year, Edelman will be 75% back, Hogan and Burkhead should be available all season (in theory), meaning that are a lot of other options of players to take Cooks production. similarly, I think Amendola benefited greatly from Edelman and Mitchell being out.

IMO, Dorsett will play more of an Amendola role once Edelman returns. A guy on the field in multiple WR sets and maybe a decent 3rd down option. Amendola was an ok producer and contributor when other guys were out, but he also had a couple of seasons in NE where he was way down on the receiving options and had 20-25 receptions for 200-250 or so yards.

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
IMO, Cooks production was inflated due to injuries to 1) Edelman (entire season), 2) Hogan (half the season), 3) Mitchell (entire season, and 4) Burkhead (half the season).
Those guys don't have anything to do with long passes, except maybe when they're on the field dump offs become a better option. This is apples to oranges imo. When the Patriots need deep pass plays, it doesn't matter if Edelman or Mitchell or Burkhead are healthy. Maybe Hogan in a pinch, but I'm sure Dorsett is preferred.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top