Is this the deepest we've ever been at QB? (1 Viewer)

[Stuart Ullman]

I was doing a few mock drafts earlier and it's crazy how deep QB is this year.

Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck (pass for me, others love him), Kirk Cousins (stinks), Jimmy Garrapolo (over drafted), Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethislbergers, Jared Goff, Pat Mahomes, Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith

Drop off

Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Dak Prescott, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor (steal), Jameis Winston

There 19 players that are serviceable starters and have significant upside at the position.

I could literally wait until the last round of the draft and take Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, or Dak Prescott and still have a player that scores 3 touchdowns in Week 1.

I know people have been waiting for QBs late for years but this year seems absolutely ridiculous.

 

[RushHour]

The short answer is yes.

 

[Ace08]

My strategy this year is to wait until about the 13th and then take Winston and Tyrod back to back in the 13th / 14th.  This is probably even earlier than it needs to be done but want to make sure I get them both.

I figure with the supporting cast he has in Cleveland Tyrod is a safe bet to give me production for 3-4 weeks until Winston gets back.  I know Mayfield will get on the field at some point but that's what Winston is for.

 

[RushHour]

My strategy this year is to wait until about the 13th and then take Winston and Tyrod back to back in the 13th / 14th.  This is probably even earlier than it needs to be done but want to make sure I get them both.

I figure with the supporting cast he has in Cleveland Tyrod is a safe bet to give me production for 3-4 weeks until Winston gets back.  I know Mayfield will get on the field at some point but that's what Winston is for.

With all of options available at QB (per the thread), why bother with Winston at all?

 

[Ace08]

With all of options available at QB (per the thread), why bother with Winston at all?

Because you're getting a guy who on a per game basis can easily give you top 10 production .  IMO he has a higher ceiling and floor than any of the guys going around him and all you have to do is find a placeholder for the 3 weeks he's out.  That's why Tyrod is a good compliment....you can outright drop him once Winston returns.

 

[ZWK]

It is very deep; lots of solid options in the 10-20 range. But the top few guys still give you an edge. I'd expect Rodgers to outscore most of these guys by 40+ points (as he typically has in recent years when he's played). IMO the top 9ish QBs have significantly better upside than the rest of the pack, with the ceiling and/or the floor dropping as you go from QB1 to QB9 (Rodgers, Wilson, Brady, Watson, Newton, Brees, Luck, Wentz, Roethlisberger).

 

[RushHour]

Because you're getting a guy who on a per game basis can easily give you top 10 production .  IMO he has a higher ceiling and floor than any of the guys going around him and all you have to do is find a placeholder for the 3 weeks he's out.  That's why Tyrod is a good compliment....you can outright drop him once Winston returns.

Without wanting a beat a dead horse, for me Winston has proven basically nothing in either fantasy or reality. He's not very good. When there are so many other options I just think he's not worth the trouble - but we disagree on his ceiling and floor relative to others.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

With all of options available at QB (per the thread), why bother with Winston at all?

Or Taylor

 

[Ilov80s]

It's as deep as last year. Look at these ADPs

QB14- Dak

QB15- Stafford

QB18- Wentz

QB22- Alex Smith

There are vauable QBs really deep in drafts. There are going to be total misses in that range too. Last year Dalton, Eli and Cutler were being drafted in in similar range and were disasters. Ofcourse, taking a QB high isn't always safe. 1/3 of the QBs taken to be starting fantasy QBs killed your team.

QB4- Matt Ryan

QB6- Carr

QB8- Mariota 

QB11- Luck

So this year, who are the QBs to avoid? Who are the QBs set in for big years? 

 

[kyoun1e]

This is the first year ever in my many years of fantasy football that I'm considering a streaming QB strategy. (Excited to see those write ups on FBGs soon).

I started thinking about this last year in the championship game where my opponent streamed (successfully) B. Bortles.

After the first handful of QBs I really don't see much of a difference. The difference will be schedule.

 

[Ilov80s]

This is the first year ever in my many years of fantasy football that I'm considering a streaming QB strategy. (Excited to see those write ups on FBGs soon).

I started thinking about this last year in the championship game where my opponent streamed (successfully) B. Bortles.

After the first handful of QBs I really don't see much of a difference. The difference will be schedule.

At times by choice and other times by bad luck I have streamed QB. You don't want to have to stream. Ideally, you draft a later round QB (or 2 depending on roster size) and they become a top 6 fantasy QB worthy of starting each week. It happened last year with Wentz and Smith. Even Dak for the first half of the year was on fire. Also, know your leauge and how they draft QBs. I have been in leagues where everyone is drafting and carrying 2 QBs and a couple are even rostering 3. While that is good for you becaue it means waivers are deeper at RB and WR, it does thin the streaming QB  pool. 

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Where's the drop-off for a league that gives 6 points for a TD pass?

 

[need2know]

I felt great talking Rodgers early last year until he got hurt.  This year I'm planning on waiting unless it's the mid rounds and I don't like anything there and someone like Rodgers is staring me in the face.  Have no prob being the last guy to take a qb though

 

[Milkman]

QB is deep. You can wait on them this year. 

 

[kyoun1e]

Just looking at SOS and it looks like some of the top names have sweet setups. D. Watson, Brees, Wentz/Foles could really get you off to a good start.

Deeper, Bortles has a great early schedule. This guy is constantly getting rushing points as well. Have a feeling Jax is going to be all around great this year.

 

[Ilov80s]

Where's the drop-off for a league that gives 6 points for a TD pass?

Same spot for a 4 pt per TD league.

 

[Anarchy99]

There are threads like this every season. The short answer is there is better scoring from fantasy QB2's in recent season but not better scoring across the board. And low end QB1's are pretty much interchangeable.

Here are the VBD scores from the last 5 seasons based solely on fantasy points scored comparing QB1 vs. QB12:

2017 - 94 points
2016 - 119 points
2015 - 102 points
2014 - 108 points
2013 - 176 points

Here are the VBD scores on a ppg basis for QBs that played at least 6 games each season:

2017 - 6.97 ppg
2016 - 6.57 ppg
2015 - 6.00 ppg
2014 - 5.72 ppg
2013 - 10.25 ppg 

Even removing Peyton's insane 2013 season, the Top QB each year still provides a lot of scoring upside compared to other fantasy positions. So IMO, the strategy is either bite the bullet and draft one of the top QB's or wait. If you wait long enough, you can still cobble together 2-3 options that won't kill you (but likely won't help you) in the long run. Having 3 QBs that can get you 18-20 ppg a week most weeks will be a disadvantage when facing a QB that averages 23-25. You can try going with the better match up (which can be effective but can also not work out as planned). If you don't have one of the top tier QB's, you really will need to hit on your other positions and/or get more depth than other owners.