It's Time - Who Finishes #1 at Each Position? (1 Viewer)

[wgoldsph]

I feel like this is turning into a "bold prediction" thread. If this many people actually have Kincaid #1, Bijan #1, etc... would you really take those guys over Laporta and CMC in your own drafts? Doubtful.

Sure Laporta would never be there still, but if you're sitting in Round 5 and Laporta, Kelce, and Kincaid are on the board, and you need TE, are you really grabbing Kincaid there? Cmon now.

I think there's a difference between "who is the smart pick at this place" vs "who do I think will go crazy this year?"

I would draft CMC first because all the evidence points at him being the top rb. But if I had to throw out a name he wouldn't be in my top 3, mostly because I don't like picking guys coming off career years when they're already at the top. Still, would I seriously take Gibbs at 1 even if I think he's going to end up there? No, I'm not that brave.


As to the point of the post l:
Mahomes - he's going to have a year where he breaks the season td record, just because he's going to want that award on his mantle. Maybe kelce's last season as a plus target.
Gibbs - electric young talent, great line, possibly best OC in football
J Jefferson - okay okay hear me out, his quality targets might dip but he still was able to produce with backups coming off injury last year (I don't know specifically the numbers but I'm willing to bet he still managed end up in the top 25 for his final few weeks sans Cousins post injury). Addison and Hock are there but if Jefferson doesn't get ten targets a game it's just criminal.
Mcbride - d sucks, Murray's other option is a rookie.

 

[steelcityman]

Hurts
Bijan
Chase
Kincaid

 

[BlackCrowes]

Burrow
Barkley
Wilson
Andrews

 

[Lansdowne]

Jalen Hurts
Bijan Robinson
Ja’Marr Chase
Kyle Pitts

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Are we planting gut flags?


QB - ARich
RB - CMC
WR - Lamb
TE - Kelce

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

RB - Breece
WR - CeeDee
TE - Kelce

That’s a lot of cees.

 

[-OZ-]

RB - Breece
WR - CeeDee
TE - Kelce

That’s a lot of cees.

Must be a fan of Buc-ees.

 

[jon_mx]

NFL Team records that could fall:

7474 Total Yards - 2011 Saints
76 Touchdowns - 2013 Broncos

• QB - Jared Goff
• WR - ARSB
• RB - Jah Gibbs
• TE - Sam LaPorta

The closest prediction you ever made.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

NFL Team records that could fall:

7474 Total Yards - 2011 Saints
76 Touchdowns - 2013 Broncos

• QB - Jared Goff
• WR - ARSB
• RB - Jah Gibbs
• TE - Sam LaPorta

The closest prediction you ever made.

He’s gonna be right one of these years.

He was probably kinda close with Stafford/Megatron

 

[Grid71]

It's fun to predict the upsets, but there is a reason some of these guys ADP are as high as they are.
CMC
Jefferson (I would take him #2 after CMC in drafts but want exposure to Lamb and Tyreek too. I can get plenty of JJ picks 4-7)
LaPorta
Captain Tush Push

Top contenders
Breece strongly feel he will push CMC but fall short, Kyren at #3 is someone i'm drafting heavily
Lamb and Tyreek
Kittle and McBride
Anthony Richardson, Mahomes and there is a world where CJ Stroud goes to the Moon. That Houston offense is incredible.

Wishful drinking team
Fields (for the weeks he starts)
Pickens
Freiermuth
Najee

 

[msudaisy26]

My all-darkhorse team

Kyler
Henry
Nabers
Ferguson

I like this dark horse team.

 

[Proteus]

Lamar
Bijan
Hill
Kelce

 

[Zow]

Allen
CMC
JJ
Laporta

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

QB - Allen
RB - CMC
WR - Lamb
TE - Hockenson (if he's not out) or Andrews

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

thought about Hurts but how many of those tush pushes will be replaced by Barkley runs now?

 

[Chaka]

I won't know until after my draft.

 

[Deamon]

I think there's a difference between "who is the smart pick at this place" vs "who do I think will go crazy this year?"

I would draft CMC first because all the evidence points at him being the top rb. But if I had to throw out a name he wouldn't be in my top 3, mostly because I don't like picking guys coming off career years when they're already at the top. Still, would I seriously take Gibbs at 1 even if I think he's going to end up there? No, I'm not that brave.

Ok, gun to your head (it's just a saying, not advocating violence), guy says "pick the RB who finishes as RB1 this year". Shouldn't you in that scenario pick the guy you actually THINK will do it?????

Are you telling the guy Gibbs in that situation?

 

[wgoldsph]

What I tell the guy who needs an honest answer or else and what I convince myself is the correct roster move are two different things.

 

[Grid71]

I think there's a difference between "who is the smart pick at this place" vs "who do I think will go crazy this year?"

I would draft CMC first because all the evidence points at him being the top rb. But if I had to throw out a name he wouldn't be in my top 3, mostly because I don't like picking guys coming off career years when they're already at the top. Still, would I seriously take Gibbs at 1 even if I think he's going to end up there? No, I'm not that brave.

Ok, gun to your head (it's just a saying, not advocating violence), guy says "pick the RB who finishes as RB1 this year". Shouldn't you in that scenario pick the guy you actually THINK will do it?????

Are you telling the guy Gibbs in that situation?

What is your favorite color? Blue, no wait Green... aieeeeeeeeeee!!!!!

 

[BassNBrew]

Let's see who knows what's going on. Let's assume PPR and 4pt passing TDs for QBs.

Plant your flag and let your pants sag.

QB - Goff
RB - Saquon
WR - ARSB
TE - Pitts

Going out on a limb w Pitts, but I feel like he explodes this szn w new coaching staff and a competent QB.

Going out on a limb with a TE going around TE6 but not a QB that's going QB13? Goff is the more wild call.

True, but goff finished #7 last season, and theyve only gotten better + a fully healthy Jamo... could be insane

The plan would have worked if not for that meddling coach who likes to run and those pesky RBs Gibbs and Monty.

I don't belong to a single redraft league, so....

In my keep 3, im hoping he's there for mw at the 6 pick, and ill absolutely take him there. I assume guys like lamar, pat, stroud, allen will be held

lol he will be there for you at pick 6. Even in a keep 3, that means you're HOPING Goff is there at pick 42 in redraft, and he's averaging going at pick 118. Why the HELL would you take a guy that's going 118th, at pick 42 when you can have him easily way way way later?

Because i live and die by the philosophy of value. Is. Dead.

I take the guys I think will score the most points, even if consensus says I'm reaching. And also because we have 6pt TDs for qbs, which makes them a touch more valuable too

But why pay $10 when you can have it for $5?

I know we went through this before, but this just seems like you're likely trolling if you're jumping on a guy like 10 rounds too early. Take some studs in the first couple rounds and snag him round 3.

In 6 points per passing TD, Goff's going on average at position 110. Over thousands and thousands of underdog drafts, it's 125. Sure ignore value, but I can't see any way you're being serious or doing well in a league when you're taking a guy 8-10 rounds earlier than he will go.

Because a guy like Goff won't go that late in my league. Stud QBs (and I consider him one now) are snapped up very early.

This league is 20+yrs deep, all buddies. I know the tendency and I have Goff as high or higher than all the QBs that'll be kept for fantasy purposes

Can any of them still see or walk? lol. If you think there's a chance won't be there at pick 50, then you should be winning a league like that every year.

You knocking my league at the Geriatric Psych ward?

Nothing like trying to have a legitimate discussion on a fantasy board and guys want to argue with you about where guys should be drafted because the pre-schoolers in their league are drafting all the cuddly Bears and Lions 10 rounds before ADP.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Allen
Hall
JJ
Andrews

 

[Timmay]

QB: Kyler
RB: ETN
WR: JJ
TE: Mcbride

 

[JoeJoe88]

Hurts
Lamb
Bijan
McBride

 

[Gatorman]

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Bijan assuming the CMC calf is a real thing.
WR: The Sun God
TE: The kid in Arizona.

 

[LawFitz]

Lamar (4 pt) / Mahomes (6 pt)
Gibbs
Tyreek
Kelce
Tucker
Raiders D

 

[socrates]

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Christian McCaffrey
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Travis Kelce

 

[Gally]

Well here goes nothing:

QB - Lamar (Henry helps but doesn't steal as many TD's as people expect)
RB - CMC (boring but I think he stays healthy and if he does he is the top dog)
WR - Tyreek (2000 yds happens)
TE - Kincaid (he will be the #1 in Buffalo)

 

[Gally]

I'm not saying it shouldn't surprise if they do. But if you actually fully believe that Bijan will outscore CMC this year, you don't take CMC over him in a draft.

If it's a "bold predictions" where you want to go off the map and call someone who isn't seen as the #1 guy then sure. It just shows how much people value "being right" or "making an upset call" than actually using logic.

If you believe the ADP approach then varying off of that even if you think it to be true is incorrect. I am not one of those ADP at all costs approach people so I would change things up if I truly believed in that evaluation.

Some of the ones you mentioned (TE in particular) I would likely not take the first TE if LaPorta, Kelce, and Kincaid were all there mainly because I am fine with any of them at the value you described. So even though I do believe Kincaid will be the top guy I would likely wait until there were two of those guys left and then take Kincaid, LaPorta, Kelce (in that order).

This is all a guess which is why I don't mind waiting in your scenario as they are all in the same tier for me in redraft.

 

[Gally]

Great idea for a thread. Love reading all the responses.

QB - Love, J

RB - Gibbs, J

WR - Jefferson, J

TE - Kincaid, D

Really should have gone with Ferguson, J at TE to be consistent

 

[Gally]

I think there's a difference between "who is the smart pick at this place" vs "who do I think will go crazy this year?"

I would draft CMC first because all the evidence points at him being the top rb. But if I had to throw out a name he wouldn't be in my top 3, mostly because I don't like picking guys coming off career years when they're already at the top. Still, would I seriously take Gibbs at 1 even if I think he's going to end up there? No, I'm not that brave.

Ok, gun to your head (it's just a saying, not advocating violence), guy says "pick the RB who finishes as RB1 this year". Shouldn't you in that scenario pick the guy you actually THINK will do it?????

Are you telling the guy Gibbs in that situation?

If it's gun to my head I pick the guy most likely to do it which isn't necessarily the guy I think will do it. There is variance and I am wrong a lot. If my life is on the line I am going with the guy that has a 50% chance over a guy that has a 20% chance.....even if I think the 20% guy will do it.

Now in a draft there are more factors involved as to whether or not I go with the higher variance guy I believe in over the safer play.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Assuming all play a full(ish) season:

QB - Hurts
RB - Bijan
WR - Sun God
TE - McBride

 

[TheWinz]

After 3 weeks, here are the leaders:

QB - Josh Allen
RB - Alvin Kamara
WR - Malik Nabers
TE - Dallas Goedert

 

[kutta]

After 3 weeks, here are the leaders:

QB - Josh Allen
RB - Alvin Kamara
WR - Malik Nabers
TE - Dallas Goedert

Pretty much what everyone predicted

 

[Pip's Invitation]

So the correct answer for TE was "no one."