Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Jahvid Best Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[EBF]

Quoting myself here:

I would look towards Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew for examples of how he'll probably be used. Here are their rookie stats:

Reggie Bush 2006 - 155 carries, 565 rushing yards (3.6 YPC), 88 catches, 742 receiving yards (8.4 YPR)

Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 - 166 carries, 941 rushing yards (5.7 YPC), 46 catches, 436 receiving yards (9.5 YPR)

Bush and MJD both averaged about 10 carries per game as rookies. I think Best will probably carry the ball a little bit more than these guys did because there's no Deuce McAllister or Fred Taylor on the Lions. The other Detroit RBs suck, so Best should be forced to pick up some of the slack. I'll say 13 carries per game. I expect his YPC to be a lot higher than Bush's 3.6, but probably lower than MJD's 5.7. I'll split the difference and say:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC)

I think he'll be a big factor in the passing game. I don't think he'll get 88 catches like Bush, but I think he'll get more than MJD's 46. I'll say 25% of the gap between MJD and Bush, which would be about 57 catches. I'll estimate his YPR right in the middle at 9.0. All in all, I expect something like:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 57 catches, 513 receiving yards (9.0) YPR

Reggie scored 8 TDs as a rookie. MJD scored 15. Since the Lions are still a pretty bad team and since Best probably isn't an ideal goal line back, I'll say 10 TDs. I expect him to get a couple more than Reggie because I think he'll break more big plays.

rushing - 208 carries, 956 rushing yards, 7 TDs

receiving - 57 catches, 513 receiving yards, 3 TDs

That equates to 263.9 points in a 16 game season, which would put him right on the cusp of the top 10 RBs in most years.

 

[Judge Ito]

Quoting myself here:

I would look towards Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew for examples of how he'll probably be used. Here are their rookie stats:

Reggie Bush 2006 - 155 carries, 565 rushing yards (3.6 YPC), 88 catches, 742 receiving yards (8.4 YPR)

Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 - 166 carries, 941 rushing yards (5.7 YPC), 46 catches, 436 receiving yards (9.5 YPR)

Bush and MJD both averaged about 10 carries per game as rookies. I think Best will probably carry the ball a little bit more than these guys did because there's no Deuce McAllister or Fred Taylor on the Lions. The other Detroit RBs suck, so Best should be forced to pick up some of the slack. I'll say 13 carries per game. I expect his YPC to be a lot higher than Bush's 3.6, but probably lower than MJD's 5.7. I'll split the difference and say:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC)

I think he'll be a big factor in the passing game. I don't think he'll get 88 catches like Bush, but I think he'll get more than MJD's 46. I'll say 25% of the gap between MJD and Bush, which would be about 57 catches. I'll estimate his YPR right in the middle at 9.0. All in all, I expect something like:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 57 catches, 513 receiving yards (9.0) YPR

Reggie scored 8 TDs as a rookie. MJD scored 15. Since the Lions are still a pretty bad team and since Best probably isn't an ideal goal line back, I'll say 10 TDs. I expect him to get a couple more than Reggie because I think he'll break more big plays.

rushing - 208 carries, 956 rushing yards, 7 TDs

receiving - 57 catches, 513 receiving yards, 3 TDs

That equates to 263.9 points in a 16 game season, which would put him right on the cusp of the top 10 RBs in most years.

Well done EBF!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have Best slated for about 15-17 touches a game. Detroit needs to get production form their RBs, and they are probably going to be in a lot of shootouts. Best has receiving and running skills so I imagine he will be on the field a lot. If he hadn't suffered the concussion and vicious spill on his way into the end zone last year I doubt he would be talked up like a specialty guy that is only gonna touch the ball 10-12 times a game, no way.

I have him projected for 240/1000/6 Tds plus 32/250/2Td receiving.

1250yds and 8 Tds, and that might be a little low.

This puts him at #15 on my board.

 

[D'OHtis]

My pick for OROY.

My projections are very close to the ones posted above.

200 carries 950 yards 6 TDs

50 catches 450 yards 2 TDs

I expect him to be in many Top 10 RB's dynasty lists next offseason.

 

[karmarooster]

Best gets a lot of hype-talk about being a great receiver.... is this really true? or is it just because he is a skinny/smaller RB, so we assume he must be? i looked up his college stats and his receptions go 17-27-22 form 2007-2008-2009. this doesn't really prove that he's not a great pass-catching RB, but i was just curious to know if anyone had tangible evidence of him performing well as a receiver (combine maybe?).

 

[EBF]

Best gets a lot of hype-talk about being a great receiver.... is this really true? or is it just because he is a skinny/smaller RB, so we assume he must be? i looked up his college stats and his receptions go 17-27-22 form 2007-2008-2009. this doesn't really prove that he's not a great pass-catching RB, but i was just curious to know if anyone had tangible evidence of him performing well as a receiver (combine maybe?).

Notably, you see some flashes of his receiving skills from 6:22 on.

Backs generally aren't asked to catch the ball 50+ times in a college season, so you can't expect the stats to reflect what he's capable of. Ray Rice and MJD didn't catch a ton of balls in college either. What you have to do is look at the talent and make a projection. Best is a great route runner for a RB, almost like a slot WR. That will pay huge dividends at the next level.

 

[Thomsen]

Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris caught a total of 67 balls last season. Best is better a receiver than both of them, and Stafford will use him alot. I look for him to catch 60 balls. My projection:

220 carries, 900 yards, 6 TDs, 60 rec, 500 yards, 3 TDs. I'm considering taking him at 3.14 in 0.5 PPR redraft league.

 

[Da Guru]

From what I have been hearing on local radio is that the Lions may use Best as a WR at times ala Percy Harvin, to try to get the ball to him in space. Look for Best to get some receptions on WR screens from the slot. I see Best getting 50-60 receptions this season.

 

[whitewizard]

Quoting myself here:

I would look towards Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew for examples of how he'll probably be used. Here are their rookie stats:

Reggie Bush 2006 - 155 carries, 565 rushing yards (3.6 YPC), 88 catches, 742 receiving yards (8.4 YPR)

Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 - 166 carries, 941 rushing yards (5.7 YPC), 46 catches, 436 receiving yards (9.5 YPR)

Bush and MJD both averaged about 10 carries per game as rookies. I think Best will probably carry the ball a little bit more than these guys did because there's no Deuce McAllister or Fred Taylor on the Lions. The other Detroit RBs suck, so Best should be forced to pick up some of the slack. I'll say 13 carries per game. I expect his YPC to be a lot higher than Bush's 3.6, but probably lower than MJD's 5.7. I'll split the difference and say:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC)

I think he'll be a big factor in the passing game. I don't think he'll get 88 catches like Bush, but I think he'll get more than MJD's 46. I'll say 25% of the gap between MJD and Bush, which would be about 57 catches. I'll estimate his YPR right in the middle at 9.0. All in all, I expect something like:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 57 catches, 513 receiving yards (9.0) YPR

Reggie scored 8 TDs as a rookie. MJD scored 15. Since the Lions are still a pretty bad team and since Best probably isn't an ideal goal line back, I'll say 10 TDs. I expect him to get a couple more than Reggie because I think he'll break more big plays.

rushing - 208 carries, 956 rushing yards, 7 TDs

receiving - 57 catches, 513 receiving yards, 3 TDs

That equates to 263.9 points in a 16 game season, which would put him right on the cusp of the top 10 RBs in most years.

i think you hit the nail right on the head. i am a lion homer proud and true so i think the receiving totals can be a shade better, i am thinking 600+ yards 5 TDs. either way he is going to be a dynamic player and really open up the lions offense. it should be a fun year for us lions fans. good front 7, a offense with weapons, and a QB ready to step up. 8-8 would be nice to see.

 

[mlball77]

I expect Best to have a solid rookie campaign, but I think K Smith (if somewhat healthy) and/or M Morris will still factor in a little bit, so I'm thinking Best might get something around 225 touches this year.

Rsh: 180

Rsh yds: 813

Rsh Tds: 5

Recs: 40

Rec yds: 288

Rec Tds: 1

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

 

[rzrback77]

Jahvid Best is probably the third favorite Rookie RB for dynasties and since RBs typically reach success the earliest of all positions, he should be fairly well thought of regarding 2010. I am having some difficulty seeing that success. I like Coach Schwartz quite a bit and I am hopeful for better days ahead for the Lions, but I don't think that those days will be this year. Let's look at some recent offensive numbers:

07 - 368 of 587 passing 62.6% 4216 yds 7.2 ypa 19 TD 22 int rushing 320 1277 yds 3.99 ypc 13 TDs

08 - 281 of 509 passing 55.2% 3299 yds 6.5 ypa 18 TD 19 int rushing 352 1324 yds 3.76 ypc 10 TDs

09 - 316 of 585 passing 54.0% 3471 yds 5.9 ypa 16 TD 32 int rushing 409 1434 yds 3.51 ypc 9 TDs

As I said, I think that the Lions are improving as a team, but the running stats have shown steady decline in effectiveness even while being used more often in the past three years. I think that most are overestimating the rookie's potential to turn this thing around on his own. In addition, Maurice Morris was more effective last year than Kevin Smith and he returns. Kevin Smith although placed on IR after week 15 last year, should be back at some point and could also be involved.

It is important to note that if many in this thread are on target with their projections, then Jahvid Best could very well be the Steal of the Draft (SOD) since he is currently the RB 28 and 64 overall. I think that he will reasonable success, just not the SOD.

Jahvid Best 16 gms 150 carries 615 yds 4.1 ypc 50 targets 40 catches 280 yds 7.0 ypc and 6 TDs

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Jahvid Best is probably the third favorite Rookie RB for dynasties and since RBs typically reach success the earliest of all positions, he should be fairly well thought of regarding 2010. I am having some difficulty seeing that success. I like Coach Schwartz quite a bit and I am hopeful for better days ahead for the Lions, but I don't think that those days will be this year. Let's look at some recent offensive numbers:07 - 368 of 587 passing 62.6% 4216 yds 7.2 ypa 19 TD 22 int rushing 320 1277 yds 3.99 ypc 13 TDs08 - 281 of 509 passing 55.2% 3299 yds 6.5 ypa 18 TD 19 int rushing 352 1324 yds 3.76 ypc 10 TDs09 - 316 of 585 passing 54.0% 3471 yds 5.9 ypa 16 TD 32 int rushing 409 1434 yds 3.51 ypc 9 TDsAs I said, I think that the Lions are improving as a team, but the running stats have shown steady decline in effectiveness even while being used more often in the past three years. I think that most are overestimating the rookie's potential to turn this thing around on his own. In addition, Maurice Morris was more effective last year than Kevin Smith and he returns. Kevin Smith although placed on IR after week 15 last year, should be back at some point and could also be involved.It is important to note that if many in this thread are on target with their projections, then Jahvid Best could very well be the Steal of the Draft (SOD) since he is currently the RB 28 and 64 overall. I think that he will reasonable success, just not the SOD.Jahvid Best 16 gms 150 carries 615 yds 4.1 ypc 50 targets 40 catches 280 yds 7.0 ypc and 6 TDs

Who do you see carrying the ball in Detroit then?

 

[JohnnyU]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

 

[Concept Coop]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

Oh come on. Reggie Bush ran well between the tackles in college too. You should know that does not always translate to the NFL.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

Oh come on. Reggie Bush ran well between the tackles in college too. You should know that does not always translate to the NFL.

Reggie Bush ran well through holes in the O-line that make Madonna's hole appear virgin-like in comparison. That does not mean that Reggie Bush ever truly ran "between the tackles"

 

[rzrback77]

Jahvid Best is probably the third favorite Rookie RB for dynasties and since RBs typically reach success the earliest of all positions, he should be fairly well thought of regarding 2010. I am having some difficulty seeing that success. I like Coach Schwartz quite a bit and I am hopeful for better days ahead for the Lions, but I don't think that those days will be this year. Let's look at some recent offensive numbers:07 - 368 of 587 passing 62.6% 4216 yds 7.2 ypa 19 TD 22 int rushing 320 1277 yds 3.99 ypc 13 TDs08 - 281 of 509 passing 55.2% 3299 yds 6.5 ypa 18 TD 19 int rushing 352 1324 yds 3.76 ypc 10 TDs09 - 316 of 585 passing 54.0% 3471 yds 5.9 ypa 16 TD 32 int rushing 409 1434 yds 3.51 ypc 9 TDsAs I said, I think that the Lions are improving as a team, but the running stats have shown steady decline in effectiveness even while being used more often in the past three years. I think that most are overestimating the rookie's potential to turn this thing around on his own. In addition, Maurice Morris was more effective last year than Kevin Smith and he returns. Kevin Smith although placed on IR after week 15 last year, should be back at some point and could also be involved.It is important to note that if many in this thread are on target with their projections, then Jahvid Best could very well be the Steal of the Draft (SOD) since he is currently the RB 28 and 64 overall. I think that he will reasonable success, just not the SOD.Jahvid Best 16 gms 150 carries 615 yds 4.1 ypc 50 targets 40 catches 280 yds 7.0 ypc and 6 TDs

Who do you see carrying the ball in Detroit then?

Best, Morris, and later Kevin Smith

 

[Multiple Scores]

175/700/4 + 30/250/0 = 950 total yards/4TDS

These numbers are low. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up much better and an elite talent, I am however betting against it, 55-45 odds he busts, if he doesn't bust I think he could be elite, don't really see any mediocrity possibility here, boom or bust.

 

[JohnnyU]

175/700/4 + 30/250/0 = 950 total yards/4TDS

These numbers are low. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up much better and an elite talent, I am however betting against it, 55-45 odds he busts, if he doesn't bust I think he could be elite, don't really see any mediocrity possibility here, boom or bust.

Nothing like hedging your bets

 

[Concept Coop]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

Oh come on. Reggie Bush ran well between the tackles in college too. You should know that does not always translate to the NFL.

Reggie Bush ran well through holes in the O-line that make Madonna's hole appear virgin-like in comparison. That does not mean that Reggie Bush ever truly ran "between the tackles"

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

 

[Multiple Scores]

175/700/4 + 30/250/0 = 950 total yards/4TDS

These numbers are low. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up much better and an elite talent, I am however betting against it, 55-45 odds he busts, if he doesn't bust I think he could be elite, don't really see any mediocrity possibility here, boom or bust.

Nothing like hedging your bets

I waffle on Best, seen him a ton since Cal is the local team here. He is explosive, fast... a playmaker. I am most concerned with his size and injury history, I have avoided him in drafts and think he's right there with Spiller with talent. I am avoiding him cause I don't trust and he could make me regret it, just a chance I'm not willing to take.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

 

[moderated]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

i like best a lot but he had huge holes to run through as well.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

i like best a lot but he had huge holes to run through as well.

I never suggested otherwise.

 

[werdnoynek]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

IIRC, out of college, bush was getting the same criticism with regard to "running between the tackles" as spiller is today... not hearing it so much with best - which is completely understandable if you've seen these guys on tape. i've got to agree with mr. fox, the difference between a hole and a crater is pretty evident.ETA - everyone has huge holes at times... but with bush/spiller - it seems if they dont have a huge hole, they're immediately bouncing it outside. best shows patience to wait for something to develop and anticipation/vision to know its coming before its there, can get "small" and hit holes.

 

[Concept Coop]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

Then why didn't Lendale white have concerns about running between the tackles, seeing as he never did so in a meaningful way? What about Adrian Peterson? Willis Magahee? Frank Gore? I can go on and on.Best had big holes too and any concern about his ability to run between tackles in the NFL, is warranted.

 

[Concept Coop]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

IIRC, out of college, bush was getting the same criticism with regard to "running between the tackles" as spiller is today... not hearing it so much with best - which is completely understandable if you've seen these guys on tape. i've got to agree with mr. fox, the difference between a hole and a crater is pretty evident.ETA - everyone has huge holes at times... but with bush/spiller - it seems if they dont have a huge hole, they're immediately bouncing it outside. best shows patience to wait for something to develop and anticipation/vision to know its coming before its there, can get "small" and hit holes.

What tape do you have? Tape and Tivo are two different things.If you want to talk about Bush/Spiller bouncing it to the outside, view that as a negative, and then claim Best didn't, you need to watch more tape.Bush did more after contact than Best did. Spiller too. I think people are letting Bush's lack of success in the NFL, hinder their view of him in college. He did everything better then Best. Everything. AP ran through "craters" in college too.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.

And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

IIRC, out of college, bush was getting the same criticism with regard to "running between the tackles" as spiller is today... not hearing it so much with best - which is completely understandable if you've seen these guys on tape. i've got to agree with mr. fox, the difference between a hole and a crater is pretty evident.ETA - everyone has huge holes at times... but with bush/spiller - it seems if they dont have a huge hole, they're immediately bouncing it outside. best shows patience to wait for something to develop and anticipation/vision to know its coming before its there, can get "small" and hit holes.

What tape do you have? Tape and Tivo are two different things.If you want to talk about Bush/Spiller bouncing it to the outside, view that as a negative, and then claim Best didn't, you need to watch more tape.

Bush did more after contact than Best did. Spiller too. I think people are letting Bush's lack of success in the NFL, hinder their view of him in college. He did everything better then Best. Everything.

AP ran through "craters" in college too.

Wrong Best is more decisive....which makes him a better runner. He also runs inside better.

 

[werdnoynek]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

IIRC, out of college, bush was getting the same criticism with regard to "running between the tackles" as spiller is today... not hearing it so much with best - which is completely understandable if you've seen these guys on tape. i've got to agree with mr. fox, the difference between a hole and a crater is pretty evident.ETA - everyone has huge holes at times... but with bush/spiller - it seems if they dont have a huge hole, they're immediately bouncing it outside. best shows patience to wait for something to develop and anticipation/vision to know its coming before its there, can get "small" and hit holes.

What tape do you have? Tape and Tivo are two different things.If you want to talk about Bush/Spiller bouncing it to the outside, view that as a negative, and then claim Best didn't, you need to watch more tape.Bush did more after contact than Best did. Spiller too. I think people are letting Bush's lack of success in the NFL, hinder their view of him in college. He did everything better then Best. Everything. AP ran through "craters" in college too.

i'm not saying (and didn't say) bouncing it outside is a bad thing, nor am i saying (and didn't say) best never did it... (why do you keep playing that game?) what i AM saying is best has better patience than both of them, thus - with that patience - he has been, and likely will be, a better "between the tackles" runner. that is all... there's nothing else written between the lines.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

Then why didn't Lendale white have concerns about running between the tackles, seeing as he never did so in a meaningful way? What about Adrian Peterson? Willis Magahee? Frank Gore? I can go on and on.Best had big holes too and any concern about his ability to run between tackles in the NFL, is warranted.

Look, let me make it very clear:- I am NOT saying that if a guy didn't run between the tackles in college then he can't in the Pros. I simply have not said that- I'm also NOT saying that Best has proven he can run between the tackles in college. Others have suggested it - but I haven't watched enough tape of Best to feel comfortable making that statement- I AM however responding to your assertion that Bush proved in college that he could run between the tackles. Unless you can provide the tape, I've never seen any evidence - other than Bush running through giant holes.

 

[werdnoynek]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

Then why didn't Lendale white have concerns about running between the tackles, seeing as he never did so in a meaningful way? What about Adrian Peterson? Willis Magahee? Frank Gore? I can go on and on.Best had big holes too and any concern about his ability to run between tackles in the NFL, is warranted.

i really don't see the relevance with these names... definitely not the same type of back that we're discussing here.

 

[Concept Coop]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

IIRC, out of college, bush was getting the same criticism with regard to "running between the tackles" as spiller is today... not hearing it so much with best - which is completely understandable if you've seen these guys on tape. i've got to agree with mr. fox, the difference between a hole and a crater is pretty evident.ETA - everyone has huge holes at times... but with bush/spiller - it seems if they dont have a huge hole, they're immediately bouncing it outside. best shows patience to wait for something to develop and anticipation/vision to know its coming before its there, can get "small" and hit holes.

What tape do you have? Tape and Tivo are two different things.If you want to talk about Bush/Spiller bouncing it to the outside, view that as a negative, and then claim Best didn't, you need to watch more tape.Bush did more after contact than Best did. Spiller too. I think people are letting Bush's lack of success in the NFL, hinder their view of him in college. He did everything better then Best. Everything. AP ran through "craters" in college too.

i'm not saying (and didn't say) bouncing it outside is a bad thing, nor am i saying (and didn't say) best never did it... (why do you keep playing that game?) what i AM saying is best has better patience than both of them, thus - with that patience - he has been, and likely will be, a better "between the tackles" runner. that is all... there's nothing else written between the lines.

Better patience than Reggie Bush? In college? Wow. How many backs in history showed better patience than Bush in college? 20? 30?I guess we just have to disagree. If they came out in the same year, nobody would be saying this.

 

[Concept Coop]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

Then why didn't Lendale white have concerns about running between the tackles, seeing as he never did so in a meaningful way? What about Adrian Peterson? Willis Magahee? Frank Gore? I can go on and on.Best had big holes too and any concern about his ability to run between tackles in the NFL, is warranted.

Look, let me make it very clear:- I am NOT saying that if a guy didn't run between the tackles in college then he can't in the Pros. I simply have not said that- I'm also NOT saying that Best has proven he can run between the tackles in college. Others have suggested it - but I haven't watched enough tape of Best to feel comfortable making that statement- I AM however responding to your assertion that Bush proved in college that he could run between the tackles. Unless you can provide the tape, I've never seen any evidence - other than Bush running through giant holes.

No need to bang your head or insist or pretend that I don't get what you are saying. I do. But if you are going to say that Bush didn't prove that he could run inbetween the tackles, because his line opened "craters", then AP didn't prove it either, as his line was just a good at creating "craters".Obviously Bush wasn't able to run inside in the NFL the way he did in college. That is a big reason why people question Best's ability to do so, as they are very similair in that regard.

 

[Concept Coop]

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

You aren't "running between the tackles" in a meaningful way if you run through a hole 20 feet wide and don't have to make a "football move" until you're 15 yds downfield.

Then why didn't Lendale white have concerns about running between the tackles, seeing as he never did so in a meaningful way? What about Adrian Peterson? Willis Magahee? Frank Gore? I can go on and on.Best had big holes too and any concern about his ability to run between tackles in the NFL, is warranted.

i really don't see the relevance with these names... definitely not the same type of back that we're discussing here.

Oh. So only a certain "type" of back is affected by having their lines open up "craters"? Ok. And if you didn't see Reggie Bush make "football moves" in traffic, close to the line, Youtube has plenty of examples. No need for "tape".

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Better patience than Reggie Bush? In college? Wow. How many backs in history showed better patience than Bush in college? 20? 30?I guess we just have to disagree. If they came out in the same year, nobody would be saying this.

Have you seen film on this? Prove it....see how rediculous it sounds?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

No need to bang your head or insist or pretend that I don't get what you are saying. I do. But if you are going to say that Bush didn't prove that he could run inbetween the tackles, because his line opened "craters", then AP didn't prove it either, as his line was just a good at creating "craters".Obviously Bush wasn't able to run inside in the NFL the way he did in college. That is a big reason why people question Best's ability to do so, as they are very similair in that regard.

Ok, fair enough. I wanted to clarify my comments, because honestly, your responses didn't make it clear that you "got" what I was saying.

 

[JohnnyU]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

Oh come on. Reggie Bush ran well between the tackles in college too. You should know that does not always translate to the NFL.

Reggie Bush ran well through holes in the O-line that make Madonna's hole appear virgin-like in comparison. That does not mean that Reggie Bush ever truly ran "between the tackles"

Umm, yes he did. If you want to give the credit to his O-line, fine. But he ran plenty between the tackles.And I don't have to use Bush. I can use anyone of the many backs that could do it in college, but not the NFL.

What makes you think Best can run between the tackles in college but not the pros? He has incredible vision. Probably better than any RB in this draft. That's why he will run well between the tackles for the Lions. Next.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

I say that Johnny U because that's not what I think he's best at. Of course he can run between the tackles, I can run between the tackles, but is that the primary way they're going to use him?I don't think so. I don't see him as a Mendenhall type back where he'll get 250 to 300 carries this season banging it up the middle. I see him as a shifty, speedy guy where he'll do more damage in open space than he will inside. I think he'll be a very good receiver and we may even see him lined up as a WR as the season progresses.

That's what I mean when I say he won't be the guy between the tackles. Will he ever get the ball there, of course I just see him being more effective in other areas.

 

[JohnnyU]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

I say that Johnny U because that's not what I think he's best at. Of course he can run between the tackles, I can run between the tackles, but is that the primary way they're going to use him?I don't think so. I don't see him as a Mendenhall type back where he'll get 250 to 300 carries this season banging it up the middle. I see him as a shifty, speedy guy where he'll do more damage in open space than he will inside. I think he'll be a very good receiver and we may even see him lined up as a WR as the season progresses.

That's what I mean when I say he won't be the guy between the tackles. Will he ever get the ball there, of course I just see him being more effective in other areas.

They say that about every under sized RB. It gets tiring. One thing you're not taking into consideration is his vision to go along with his speed. He can find holes where Mendenhall has to create them or have them created for him.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

175/700/4 + 30/250/0 = 950 total yards/4TDS

These numbers are low. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up much better and an elite talent, I am however betting against it, 55-45 odds he busts, if he doesn't bust I think he could be elite, don't really see any mediocrity possibility here, boom or bust.

Nothing like hedging your bets

I waffle on Best, seen him a ton since Cal is the local team here. He is explosive, fast... a playmaker. I am most concerned with his size and injury history, I have avoided him in drafts and think he's right there with Spiller with talent. I am avoiding him cause I don't trust and he could make me regret it, just a chance I'm not willing to take.

You need to trust yout eyeballs. Seen enough of Best to think he is the rookie RB to have this year and beyond. Better situation than Spiller and is every bit as good. Lions got a steal. 240/1180/9 with 40/320/3.

 

[Pictus Cat]

RB with injury history...

Behind Detroit's line...

Against NFC North defenses...

At his ADP, I'll pass.

 

[WayzUpUSC]

RB with injury history...

Behind Detroit's line...

Against NFC North defenses...

At his ADP, I'll pass.

This. I'm not going to jump into the 'J.Best can/can't run between the tackles' argument but I will say I think the Lions would be foolish to ask him to go there 15+ times per game given he's coming off as severe a concussion as he had. I mean, it ended his season with 4 or 5 games to go & it was his second in as many weeks when it happened. I would think Detroit, who hasn't been known to have a real good offensive line for as long as I've been alive, would limit Best going up the middle where even if he had a hole, he'd be met by ILB and/or SS's who are far more fierce hitters than he ever saw in the PAC 10.

I think Jahvid can be a solid peek-a-boo back a la DeAngelo Williams but one good hit and all the lofty projections I'm seeing in this thread are shot. As P-Cat states, for the ADP you would need to use to get Best, I think the risk far outweighs reward. The Lions haven't had a 1000 yard rusher since 2004, I don't think Best ends that streak this season myself. If the Lions are smart, they'll use him as a more rush-oriented Percy Harvin and do their best to get him in space & avoid the big hits.

210/880/5-6 TDs*

55/500/3*

*IF he stays healthy

 

[Fighting Noles]

OK - So you aren't "high" on him but still project him to finish @ RB7 in PPR based on last years' #'s for RB's.

With his total lack of blocking skills (the words "shies away from contact in that area" were used repeatedly by scouts - Wait until Allen or Peppers - the div 2ce each - is bearing down on him & Stafford), I'll be very curious to see if he hits the REC #'s many expect from him here.

This reminds me a little of the Harvin will get 60 rushes predicts last year. I think Best will be solid for a rookie (like Harvin was last year), but I think the hype train has elevated him to a point where even some of his "detractors" still expect top 10 #'s (in a PPR).....This doesn't leave much upside but does leave some downside IMO, especially when you factor in the concussion/durability risks & "rookie wall" possibility.

 

[WayzUpUSC]

OK - So you aren't "high" on him but still project him to finish @ RB7 in PPR based on last years' #'s for RB's.With his total lack of blocking skills (the words "shies away from contact in that area" were used repeatedly by scouts - Wait until Allen or Peppers - the div 2ce each - is bearing down on him & Stafford), I'll be very curious to see if he hits the REC #'s many expect from him here.This reminds me a little of the Harvin will get 60 rushes predicts last year. I think Best will be solid for a rookie (like Harvin was last year), but I think the hype train has elevated him to a point where even some of his "detractors" still expect top 10 #'s (in a PPR).....This doesn't leave much upside but does leave some downside IMO, especially when you factor in the concussion/durability risks & "rookie wall" possibility.

I'm kind of new to posting here so I guessed what I think his ceiling is, not what I actually think he'll do year 1. Strictly speaking for 2010, I've been trying to tell the DET fans I live around (I'm from MI.) that he's going to struggle to get to 1000 total yards his rookie season but I think a couple years from now he could be the dual-threat, 1400 total yard guy a lot of people are calling for....DET needs to address that OL for that to happen - and he needs to be able to stay on the field for those touches. Good call on the blocking - that alone will get him out of the game on many 3rd downs if DET wants to keep Stafford alive.

 

[Concept Coop]

175/700/4 + 30/250/0 = 950 total yards/4TDS

These numbers are low. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up much better and an elite talent, I am however betting against it, 55-45 odds he busts, if he doesn't bust I think he could be elite, don't really see any mediocrity possibility here, boom or bust.

Nothing like hedging your bets

I waffle on Best, seen him a ton since Cal is the local team here. He is explosive, fast... a playmaker. I am most concerned with his size and injury history, I have avoided him in drafts and think he's right there with Spiller with talent. I am avoiding him cause I don't trust and he could make me regret it, just a chance I'm not willing to take.

You need to trust yout eyeballs. Seen enough of Best to think he is the rookie RB to have this year and beyond. Better situation than Spiller and is every bit as good. Lions got a steal. 240/1180/9 with 40/320/3.

I wish Vegas felt this way. I would be my house that he doesn't get close to 1,200/9. But then again, history has been kind to skill position players drafted by the Lions...oh, right.

Well at least he has a veteran team, line, and QB to lean on...oh, right.

But his defense won't put him in bad positions....damn.

At least he as been durable....oops.

Better situation than Spiller how? Because he will be forced to start before he is ready? If Detroit thinks they are going to hitch their wagon to this kid as a rookie, they are in trouble and so is Best. I would much rather have Spiller. He is a more traditional RB talent, has better balace and less injury concern. He will get eased in and put in a position to do what he can and nothing more. Jackson is old, and Lynch will be gone soon. As early as next season, Spiller's value will be much higher than Best's.

 

[Concept Coop]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

I say that Johnny U because that's not what I think he's best at. Of course he can run between the tackles, I can run between the tackles, but is that the primary way they're going to use him?I don't think so. I don't see him as a Mendenhall type back where he'll get 250 to 300 carries this season banging it up the middle. I see him as a shifty, speedy guy where he'll do more damage in open space than he will inside. I think he'll be a very good receiver and we may even see him lined up as a WR as the season progresses.

That's what I mean when I say he won't be the guy between the tackles. Will he ever get the ball there, of course I just see him being more effective in other areas.

They say that about every under sized RB. It gets tiring. One thing you're not taking into consideration is his vision to go along with his speed. He can find holes where Mendenhall has to create them or have them created for him.

Reggie Bush had great vision. GREAT VISION and patience. If you can SEE the hit coming, but can't do anything about it, you are not going to do much in the NFL. Chris Johnson has the fastest "twitch" reaction I have seen since Barry. That is why he is doing what he is doing in the NFL. That doesn't mean that all small, fast backs can do that. Best, if used right, will be in a Reggie Bush role. It might get tiring, but that is only because it is true and proven over and over.

 

[werdnoynek]

J. Best has a lot of talent but he'll need to prove he can stay healthy at this level. As you read through this thread, there is a lot of optimism for a guy who is unproven at this level and having some injury history.

I doubt he's going to be the guy between the tackles, so he better be used a lot to justify where you draft this guy. In Non PPR leagues, my gut feeling is he will not be a guy who lives up to his ADP.

700 yards rushing, 3 td's

48 receptions, 400 yards and 3 td's

Not sure why you said this. Best runs very well between the tackles. You should know this.

I say that Johnny U because that's not what I think he's best at. Of course he can run between the tackles, I can run between the tackles, but is that the primary way they're going to use him?I don't think so. I don't see him as a Mendenhall type back where he'll get 250 to 300 carries this season banging it up the middle. I see him as a shifty, speedy guy where he'll do more damage in open space than he will inside. I think he'll be a very good receiver and we may even see him lined up as a WR as the season progresses.

That's what I mean when I say he won't be the guy between the tackles. Will he ever get the ball there, of course I just see him being more effective in other areas.

They say that about every under sized RB. It gets tiring. One thing you're not taking into consideration is his vision to go along with his speed. He can find holes where Mendenhall has to create them or have them created for him.

Reggie Bush had great vision. GREAT VISION and patience. If you can SEE the hit coming, but can't do anything about it, you are not going to do much in the NFL. Chris Johnson has the fastest "twitch" reaction I have seen since Barry. That is why he is doing what he is doing in the NFL. That doesn't mean that all small, fast backs can do that. Best, if used right, will be in a Reggie Bush role. It might get tiring, but that is only because it is true and proven over and over.

last attempt on this topic.bush is not patient as a running back. (must we go over this again???) bush does have vision but he doesn't wait for the blocks to be placed and holes to develop. he has the patience and vision of a kick/punt returner (which is why they never use him between the tackles)... he goes full speed to the line and if there isn't a hole he pops it outside - same with most everything i've seen with spiller. there's a few instances of spiller showing great patience on short yardage downs going between tackles that i've seen, but he isn't consistant with it. he may develop that later on, but bush never has, and frankly i feel he never will. chris johnson and jahvid best have patience... if you can't see or understand the difference, i'm not sure you ever will. all these guys rely heavily on speed and vision, but the difference here is patience... that is why best will be a much better back in the nfl than reggie bush will ever be imo.

there's a reason bush is change of pace back... because he lacks the patience to be anything but. i forsee the same issues with spiller, but he's got the potential to change... i just don't see that change happening with bush.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

OK - So you aren't "high" on him but still project him to finish @ RB7 in PPR based on last years' #'s for RB's.

With his total lack of blocking skills (the words "shies away from contact in that area" were used repeatedly by scouts - Wait until Allen or Peppers - the div 2ce each - is bearing down on him & Stafford), I'll be very curious to see if he hits the REC #'s many expect from him here.

This reminds me a little of the Harvin will get 60 rushes predicts last year. I think Best will be solid for a rookie (like Harvin was last year), but I think the hype train has elevated him to a point where even some of his "detractors" still expect top 10 #'s (in a PPR).....This doesn't leave much upside but does leave some downside IMO, especially when you factor in the concussion/durability risks & "rookie wall" possibility.

I'm kind of new to posting here so I guessed what I think his ceiling is, not what I actually think he'll do year 1. Strictly speaking for 2010, I've been trying to tell the DET fans I live around (I'm from MI.) that he's going to struggle to get to 1000 total yards his rookie season but I think a couple years from now he could be the dual-threat, 1400 total yard guy a lot of people are calling for....DET needs to address that OL for that to happen - and he needs to be able to stay on the field for those touches.

Good call on the blocking - that alone will get him out of the game on many 3rd downs if DET wants to keep Stafford alive.

I am not a Best detractor at all, but if he has a blocking problem, it matters.Interestingly, his highlight video has a shot of him blocking:

I believe he was actually trying to block there, otherwise it would have been a chip and then look for the pass if it were a screen. He followed the defender to the QB.

 

[griff321]

RB with injury history...Behind Detroit's line...Against NFC North defenses...At his ADP, I'll pass.

Exactly how I feel as well.Just take a look at Best's highlight reel. He can tear up horrible D's like E. Washington and U of MN, but I don't see any highlights from the Cal vs. USC game where he had 14 for 47yds or the Oregon game where he had 16 for 55. I still feel a lot of his numbers were a result of how his line played and I think this is evident when you look at the numbers of Shane Vereen when Best was out.Then he has to play in the black and blue division on it's worst team. One of the major problems with the Lions running backs is not only do they have to face the top two rushing Defenses twice a year, they also can not keep up with the other teams because their D is so horrible. Then you look at Best's blocking ability and it really makes you wonder just how many plays he will be involved in. For Best to get even some of the conservative numbers people are posting, I think he has to have a perfect storm type of year e.g., Brett does not return, Aaron Rodgers or half of GB's D is injured, the Williams wall is out and E.J. Henderson doesn't return, and then you'd still need all of the Lion's players like CJ and Cherilus to magically "get it" and start playing up to their talent level. Not to mention that while we all love Stafford's toughness and big arm, he still made a ton of bad decisions and he isn't "there" yet. For all we know he's just another Jay Cutler. Far too much risk involved for his ADP.