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Jamal Lewis (1 Viewer)

PatrickT

Footballguy
And it's not just FBG. ESPN has him going for some obscene numbers. This is a guy who's yet to post 100+ yard game against the likes of Cincy, Dallas and Denver. Is Houston really THAT bad against the run? They've given up some big games, but mostly to some pretty top talent. Would like some additional input on this one, I'm having a hard time seeing him post big time numbers based on the season he's having so far.

 
Geez, just when I thought it was safe to start Dunn (vs Lions) and Grant (starting to look good).

 
Well, let's take a look at that list. Here are the backs that scored more than 15 FF points:

Ronnie Brown

LenDale White

Adrian Peterson

Willis McGahee

Patrick Cobbs

Joseph Addai

Willie Parker

Of those, Patrick Cobbs is the only non-stud back, and he did it all in 3 receptions, 0 carries, from the wildcat, fairly early in the season when it was still new and effective. Of the rest, only 4 of those broke 100 yards rushing (ADP, McGahee, Addai and Parker). So, while I'm certainly not defending the Houston run D, I'm still not sure why there's an automatic reaction that Jamal Lewis is going to get, at minimum, 100 yards and a TD, which is the lowest projection I'm seeing right now, when he hasn't done that yet this season against some similarly weak (or weaker) run Ds.

To start Lewis, I have to sit a pretty good RB, so just looking to get convinced one way or the other. And Lord knows my statistical prowess is on par with the Houston run D.

 
One thing to keep in mind is Harrison may be out this week so that may be good for more touches for JL. I know Harrison hasn't been getting more then a handleful of touched but when healthy I expect that to change.

 
Well, let's take a look at that list. Here are the backs that scored more than 15 FF points: Ronnie Brown LenDale White Adrian Peterson Willis McGahee Patrick Cobbs Joseph Addai Willie Parker Of those, Patrick Cobbs is the only non-stud back, and he did it all in 3 receptions, 0 carries, from the wildcat, fairly early in the season when it was still new and effective. Of the rest, only 4 of those broke 100 yards rushing (ADP, McGahee, Addai and Parker). So, while I'm certainly not defending the Houston run D, I'm still not sure why there's an automatic reaction that Jamal Lewis is going to get, at minimum, 100 yards and a TD, which is the lowest projection I'm seeing right now, when he hasn't done that yet this season against some similarly weak (or weaker) run Ds.To start Lewis, I have to sit a pretty good RB, so just looking to get convinced one way or the other. And Lord knows my statistical prowess is on par with the Houston run D.
I look at those gamelogs and don't think about which RBs did well...but which teams did well. You mention Cobbs and MIA. Cobbs did his damage with 3 receptions for 138 yds and 2 TDs. Rushing wise, though, MIA had Williams with 11 for 46 & 1 TD and Brown with 13 for 50 & 1 TD, which is solid. The only two games (of the ten played) where their opponent wasn't successful from a FF perspective (and NFL for that matter) rushing the ball was week 4 against JAX (an off game for JAX, but they were having major OL issues at the time) and week 8 against CIN. I guess you could throw DET in there too, but Kevin Smith had a decent game for a team that doesn't run enough (since they always play from behind).I think what you have to take from those gamelogs is that teams usually have lots of success running against HOU. For a team like MIA who plays multiple backs, they all had success (so don't get caught up in the fact that no single RB had a monster rushing game for MIA). For CLE, Lewis is the guy who carries the load (even if people think Harrison should see more touches). Maybe he hasn't had a 100 yard game this season, but I honestly think that 100 yards & a TD against HOU this week are very reasonable projections for Lewis. I think his upside is potentially huge this week too.Maybe you have better RBs going forward (not just looking at week 12 matchups), but it is very clear to me (and others) that Lewis will have a big game this week against a bad rush defense.
 
One more thing. In looking at Lewis' gamelogs, he has faced a lot of good rush defenses. Even Cincy can play solid on defense on occasion. I would consider his only really easy matchup of those ten to be DEN and it looks like he blew that, but it was also Quinn's first game and Quinn did not attempt 1 pass of more than 20 yards in that game (the defense probably was closer to the line on average since CLE wasn't throwing down the field).

In looking at those gamelogs, I am pretty confident that Lewis sees 20-25 carries this week. You just have to guess how confident you are in his success.

 
One more thing. In looking at Lewis' gamelogs, he has faced a lot of good rush defenses. Even Cincy can play solid on defense on occasion. I would consider his only really easy matchup of those ten to be DEN and it looks like he blew that, but it was also Quinn's first game and Quinn did not attempt 1 pass of more than 20 yards in that game (the defense probably was closer to the line on average since CLE wasn't throwing down the field).

In looking at those gamelogs, I am pretty confident that Lewis sees 20-25 carries this week. You just have to guess how confident you are in his success.
:rolleyes:
 
One more thing. In looking at Lewis' gamelogs, he has faced a lot of good rush defenses. Even Cincy can play solid on defense on occasion. I would consider his only really easy matchup of those ten to be DEN and it looks like he blew that, but it was also Quinn's first game and Quinn did not attempt 1 pass of more than 20 yards in that game (the defense probably was closer to the line on average since CLE wasn't throwing down the field).

In looking at those gamelogs, I am pretty confident that Lewis sees 20-25 carries this week. You just have to guess how confident you are in his success.
:rolleyes:
:goodposting:

 
The Texans have given up at least 100 and a touchdown to the opponents #1 RB the last 3 weeks. I dont expect them to figure it out on the road - Houston is yet to win away from Reliant.

 
2 f"ing carries....how can you do anything (in his defense)
That is the thing...he is really not doing that badly this week, he is just not getting any chances. 3/19 - 2/10 would be great if he would get WAY more touches and continue at that pace.
 

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