Okay so let me clear some things up:
1. Fogle has been charged and has taken a plea in the Federal Court. This isn't state courts so your understanding of the laws/sentencing ranges in your local jurisdiction don't apply.
2. He has taken a plea. I can tell you from experience that plea negotiations with federal prosecutors are not easy. It's very likely that the assigned prosecutor followed his or her office's plea policy. I'm guessing Jared's plea fell within that policy and probably only slightly modified his potential sentencing ranges. He's almost certainly been set for a sentencing date like a month or two out and has been ordered to meet with probation. However, he's NOT getting probation - probation has designated pre-sentence report writers.
3. What will apply is the Federal Sentencing guidelines. The guidelines are laid out in a manual that is over 500 pages in length. I cannot stress enough how convoluted these guidelines are but basically what will happen is that a federal probation officer (unlike your local probation officer, these probation officers are usually rockstars and may even be former lawyers or law enforcement) will examine particular factors about the defendant and draft a "pre-sentence report" that will apply these sentencing factors to Jared's ranges and proffer a sentence within that range. What is being reported in the media is that Jared will get at least five years. The State won't argue for more than 12.5, which makes me conclude that Jared's top end range is probably around this (I haven't looked at the guidelines for a few years and don't have time to look up the exact range). This pre-sentence report will have a lot of influence and will be considered by the judge to be the most neutral/objective argument for the length of his incarceration. Jared's attorney will argue for a "downward departure" and argue for factors that may convince the judge to drop below the five years. In my experience, it's incredibly rare for a judge to deviate below the bottom end. In my opinion, Jared will receive more than five years.
4. There is a Supreme Court case (U.S. v. Booker) which actually says that the guidelines are not mandatory so really Jared could get about anything. Nonetheless, it's likely the judge will find Jared should get somewhere between the 5-12.5 (my bet is around ten years).
5. I practice predominantly in Arizona. I defend people charged with similar offenses. Many of these people are cases I take on appointment (meaning at no cost to the defendant). Arizona is a very "tough" state when it comes to sentencing and is probably one of the few states on par with the federal sentencing scheme. In general, the "going rate" for someone charged with similar crimes in my jurisdiction is 5-10 years, usually accompanied by a period of probation and always accompanied with lifetime registration. Accordingly, I don't see this as a case where Jared got a significantly reduced sentenced or was cut any breaks because he's a celebrity.
6. I'd note that Jared has not been charged with sleeping with a six year old and, from what I can gather, has not even been charged with attempting or soliciting sex with a 6 year old. He had sex with 16 and 17 year olds - suggest that he's a hebephile or ephebophile. He's also been charged with possessing child pornography. Nothing indicates that that he produced any porn or tried to sleep with a small child. He's committed bad and disgusting crimes, but those suggesting he should get the death penalty or that what he did is worse than murdering two people in cold blood are irrational.