Jaws & Young make a great point (1 Viewer)

[burd]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape.

ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

 

[moleculo]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape. ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

Jaws = speed.

 

[bcr8f]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape. ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

They do, some are scouts and others get information from them but in the NFL height and arm strength are very important. Too important but intangibles are harder to measure than speed and strength.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape.

ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

It's also not a mortal lock that these guys will do better than scouts, but if you concede that point, the answer is...Money.

The good QBs make far more as broadcasters and analysts.

The same is true about most sports and scouts. They just don't pay much for these people.

Seems highly illogical to do that considering how much they invest in these top picks, but that's how organizations are typically run.

It's also not a glamorous existence, traveling every weekend to watch games live. They could do better as a "consultant" to come in and watch coaches' tape (much like Jaws does 120+ hours a week for NFL Matchup (kidding, they always exaggerate that number)), but it's still not where many of these veteran players want to be.

It's also far worse in baseball where they scout way more and pay less to their prospects.

 

[CommuterMan]

Yeah Terry Bradshaw would be an excellent talent evaluator for some team...

 

[burd]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape.

ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

It's also not a mortal lock that these guys will do better than scouts, but if you concede that point, the answer is...Money.

The good QBs make far more as broadcasters and analysts.

The same is true about most sports and scouts. They just don't pay much for these people.

Seems highly illogical to do that considering how much they invest in these top picks, but that's how organizations are typically run.

It's also not a glamorous existence, traveling every weekend to watch games live. They could do better as a "consultant" to come in and watch coaches' tape (much like Jaws does 120+ hours a week for NFL Matchup (kidding, they always exaggerate that number)), but it's still not where many of these veteran players want to be.

It's also far worse in baseball where they scout way more and pay less to their prospects.

ahh .. that's an excellant point. even a great former QB with great instincts has to actually see his prospects. i don't know if you can adquetly scout a QB based on tape alone ... im sure personality and other intangibles are part of it. And i doubt very many former QBs would want to do all that traveling and dealing w/ prospects ..

 

[Max Power]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

 

[[scooter]]

How many former QBs are head coaches or OCs or GMs?

 

[5Rings]

Jaws has quickly become, imo, the best talking head in the game. I wonder what it would take for MNF to boot that fool Kornheiser, duck tape Tirico's mouth, and just let Young and Jaws go at it all game?

 

[mbuehner]

So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams?

Good question. Of course the OC and QB coach should be deeply involved in the draft prep on most teams, but that isnt necesarilly the case on some teams depending on the heirarchy. I don't think there is any question that accuracy and decision making has really ebbed as a QB indicator. For one thing its really hard to judge in college when the windows are a LOT bigger. Vince Young was a 63% passer in college, Alex Smith was 67%. Now they look like they cant hit the broadside of a barn. Its not quite as simple as 'go find an accurate QB', any QB that gets drafted should look accurate against college competition, or they wouldnt even be in the conversation. I think Jaws hit the nail on the head talking about mechanics. The two QBs of the recent crop that were noted for their terrible mechanics were Grossman and Losman. How'd they turn out? Tom Brady had outstanding mechanics but not the big arm or quick feet, Manning has perfect mechanics AND the big arm. I dont give credit to MLB very often, but when it comes to scouting they know how its done. Mechanics equal destiny.

 

[IM666]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape.

ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

It's also not a mortal lock that these guys will do better than scouts, but if you concede that point, the answer is...Money.

The good QBs make far more as broadcasters and analysts.

The same is true about most sports and scouts. They just don't pay much for these people.

Seems highly illogical to do that considering how much they invest in these top picks, but that's how organizations are typically run.

It's also not a glamorous existence, traveling every weekend to watch games live. They could do better as a "consultant" to come in and watch coaches' tape (much like Jaws does 120+ hours a week for NFL Matchup (kidding, they always exaggerate that number)), but it's still not where many of these veteran players want to be.

It's also far worse in baseball where they scout way more and pay less to their prospects.

Jeff, I seem to recall that the 2006 FBG Mag interviewed the guy that scouted Aikman. He talked about his system for identifying QBs to be top picks and succeed. Is there a link online to that for members somewhere? It'd be interesting to go back and reread it.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

It is a gamble for sure, but first round QBs (especially high picks) are a big bang or big bust about 50-50.Sometimes you win (Peyton, McNabb), sometimes you lose (Leaf, Akili Smith) - but at least you took the shot.It's fairly understood that this is a QB-driven league, and most still believe that to get a franchise QB you have to take one in the first round. 2-3 QBs go in the first every year, which seems comical in retrospect with guys like Brady, Romo and Derek Anderson coming on Day 2 of the draft or even going undrafted.That said, the reward is often worth the risk - at least to some teams. Others (see Green Bay, Philly, and others that followed the Ron Wolf model) always take a QB after Round 1 (often Day 2, Rounds 4+) just in case one pans out. That's how Brunell was on Green Bay.

 

[Fiddles]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBD

Seems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

 

[Max Power]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

 

[Max Power]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

 

[Franknbeans]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

He's in a slump at the moment but he's had early career success and is fairly secure for the near-term future anyway. He'd have to tank for remainder of season and a good part of next year I would think before SD coaching sends him packing.

 

[Max Power]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

 

[Max Power]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

He's in a slump at the moment but he's had early career success and is fairly secure for the near-term future anyway. He'd have to tank for remainder of season and a good part of next year I would think before SD coaching sends him packing.

Rivers is a decent QB, and SD made out great in that trade. However for the #4 Pick, I would expect more.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

 

[Max Power]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

hard to argue against those numbers

 

[IndyHavoc]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

hard to argue against those numbers

No kidding. Wow! I'm impressed...better than 25% of SB's won by #1.01 drafted QB's.

 

[Raccoon]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

hard to argue against those numbers

No kidding. Wow! I'm impressed...better than 25% of SB's won by #1.01 drafted QB's.

Namath count? 1st overall in the afl draft.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

teams need to quit drafting QB's from this funky college offenses. its hard enuff to learn/run a nfl offense. seriously did scouts think that the offenses that vince young/alex smith/JP losman/rex grossman/david carr/joey harrington could have prepared them to run a pro style offense? i swear if a team drafts that hawaii or oregon QB early they ought to be shot. it would take years to get that s$$t out of there heads. never should a urban meyer/spurrier/june jones QB be taken in the first 3rounds. there will be so much hoopla in a few years when Tim Tebow goes into the draft-and he will be as big a bust as alex smith

 

[thayman]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

He's in a slump at the moment but he's had early career success and is fairly secure for the near-term future anyway. He'd have to tank for remainder of season and a good part of next year I would think before SD coaching sends him packing.

Rivers is a decent QB, and SD made out great in that trade. However for the #4 Pick, I would expect more.

Jason Campbell has been a very underrated 1st round pick.

 

[strong]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

It's better than drafting a WR number 1.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

It seems unfair to me to use the guys drafted before the 1967 common draft. So it's really been an even higher percentage than that.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

hard to argue against those numbers

No kidding. Wow! I'm impressed...better than 25% of SB's won by #1.01 drafted QB's.

Namath count? 1st overall in the afl draft.

Technically, Namath wasn't 1st in the draft.

 

[massraider]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape.

I don't believe that scouts see a player do those things, and tear up their previous scouting reports. I think that a media source, like say....ESPN---may get a hold of a tape of a Kyle Boller pulling a stunt and replay it ad nauseum, but do I really think the vast majority of scouts are willing to throw the rest of the process out the window because a guy has a gun? No.When they put those clips together, they are selling the sizzle. Just because Young and Jaws' employer chose to highlight that stuff in pre draft highlights, doesn't mean NFL teams are falling into a trap.

NFL teams make mistakes on players. There are a lot of reasons why they make those mistakes, and even more potential for mistakes at the QB position.

I like Jaws and Young, and if they can indeed "smell" a QB, then they should put up or shut up, and list the "real" QB's that are coming out every year. I'd be willing to bet their hit percentage wouldn't vary from most other draft dweebs.

 

[gianmarco]

Jeff's post about why it would cost too much and be too much time consuming is great. However, what would be practical is, once they have their sights set on a few guys, to hire one of those ex-QBs like Jaws to review tape on them and see if they agree whether or not they live up to the hype or something may be amiss.

 

[Max Power]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

It's better than drafting a WR number 1.

it all depends on the players in the draft. I just dont think teams should go in with the first pick knowing they are taking the best QB available. I think you can build an O around a stud Tackle if he is the best prospect out there.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

I was actually asked the trivia question of what former no.1 picks have won super bowls. The trick qb in the answer was Drew Bledsoe who won a ring as a backup for the Pats.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

hard to argue against those numbers

No kidding. Wow! I'm impressed...better than 25% of SB's won by #1.01 drafted QB's.

Namath count? 1st overall in the afl draft.

Technically, Namath wasn't 1st in the draft.

No. 12 in the NFL draft.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Namath count? 1st overall in the afl draft.

Technically, Namath wasn't 1st in the draft.

No. 12 in the NFL draft.

That's also misleading. He would have been the #1 pick if teams thought he would sign with them for a reasonable price.

 

[Tanner9919]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

It is a gamble for sure, but first round QBs (especially high picks) are a big bang or big bust about 50-50.Sometimes you win (Peyton, McNabb), sometimes you lose (Leaf, Akili Smith) - but at least you took the shot.It's fairly understood that this is a QB-driven league, and most still believe that to get a franchise QB you have to take one in the first round. 2-3 QBs go in the first every year, which seems comical in retrospect with guys like Brady, Romo and Derek Anderson coming on Day 2 of the draft or even going undrafted.That said, the reward is often worth the risk - at least to some teams. Others (see Green Bay, Philly, and others that followed the Ron Wolf model) always take a QB after Round 1 (often Day 2, Rounds 4+) just in case one pans out. That's how Brunell was on Green Bay.

one of the main things I notice, is 4-year starters in college, usually , but not always, transition well into to NFL..didn't the following guys start all four years or at least played all 4 years in college? Brees, McNabb, Peyton Manning , Elway, ( Montana - missed 1976 with an injury but was in college for 4 years), Steve Young, Phil Simms, Brady, etc..there's a direct tie-in to Qb's staying in college for 4 years finding success in the NFL , vs guys who leave early.

 

[Despyzer]

2-3 QBs go in the first every year, which seems comical in retrospect with guys like Brady, Romo and Derek Anderson coming on Day 2 of the draft or even going undrafted.

It would be hard to blame this on the scouting process. All three of these QBs had been on the field and in the system for more than a year before anyone thought they might be credible starters.

 

[Despyzer]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

He's in a slump at the moment but he's had early career success and is fairly secure for the near-term future anyway. He'd have to tank for remainder of season and a good part of next year I would think before SD coaching sends him packing.

And during this "slump" he picked up an Offensive Player of the Week award.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

Don't underestimate the influence of fan perceptions. If you're having problems filling the staduim the upside of a Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith or David Carr can drive sales. Names like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and LaDanain Tomlinson don't just help you win, they are cash cows. Nobody will be buying the jersey of your top 5 left tackle. That's not the driving factor but nonetheless, it's a factor.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

2-3 QBs go in the first every year, which seems comical in retrospect with guys like Brady, Romo and Derek Anderson coming on Day 2 of the draft or even going undrafted.

It would be hard to blame this on the scouting process. All three of these QBs had been on the field and in the system for more than a year before anyone thought they might be credible starters.

I forget the exact number, but I believe there was a correlation to # of starts and success - the number was 40+ starts in college.

 

[Max Power]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

He's in a slump at the moment but he's had early career success and is fairly secure for the near-term future anyway. He'd have to tank for remainder of season and a good part of next year I would think before SD coaching sends him packing.

And during this "slump" he picked up an Offensive Player of the Week award.

against Houston none the less. Im not going to hate on Rivers, but for the #4 overall pick, he is a disapointment. If Brees was still in SD, they would be a powerhouse. Rivers has one of the best O-lines in the league, one of the best RBs of ALLTIME and a great TE. He should be puting up better numbers.

 

[corpcow]

Actually, in the last 3-4 years or so, I'd say that 1st round QB's are having much more success in the NFL than in years before. The high draft pick QB who becomes a legit starter/franchise QB vs. total bust/clipboard holder/out of NFL in 3 years seem to have improved. Perhaps the QB scouting already has turned the corner and no one has recognized it yet. Just seems slightly improved to me anyway Roth/Rivers/Palmer all panned out very well. Leftwich is looking to be a bust. Alex Smith is regressing. David Carr = Bust. Joey Harrington = Bust. V Young/Leinhart/Brady Quinn still TBDSeems improved from the Heath Shuler/Akili Smith drafts though.

Rivers?

Yeah, that was my first reaction too... Apparently someone hasn't seen him play - he looks like a disaster out there

 

[King of the Wolfies]

One thing about success in college is that so many of the games are against heavily outmatched teams. one of the reasons I'm not a Quinn fan is that it seemed to me that his best games only came against bad schools. I typically throw out any stats against non top 30 teams and see how he did against the better teams. And I have no faith in any QB that runs for more TDs than his RBs get.

 

[Despyzer]

And during this "slump" he picked up an Offensive Player of the Week award.

against Houston none the less.

Is the implication that any success against Houston should immediately be discounted or that everyone who plays Houston has won offensive awards? Are we also going to downplay his game against Green Bay this year (27 of 36 for 306, 3 TDs, 1 INT) and Denver (13 of 18 for 270, 2 TDs, 0 INTs)? How about his Pro Bowl season from a year ago (62%, almost 3400 yds., 22 TDs, 9 INTs)?

 

[corpcow]

One thing about success in college is that so many of the games are against heavily outmatched teams. one of the reasons I'm not a Quinn fan is that it seemed to me that his best games only came against bad schools. I typically throw out any stats against non top 30 teams and see how he did against the better teams. And I have no faith in any QB that runs for more TDs than his RBs get.

Which is one reason that JaMarcus went #1...As for Vince, well, it may not always be pretty, but the one thing you have to give him credit for is that he's a winner....

 

[coolnerd]

2-3 QBs go in the first every year, which seems comical in retrospect with guys like Brady, Romo and Derek Anderson coming on Day 2 of the draft or even going undrafted.

It would be hard to blame this on the scouting process. All three of these QBs had been on the field and in the system for more than a year before anyone thought they might be credible starters.

I forget the exact number, but I believe there was a correlation to # of starts and success - the number was 40+ starts in college.

I think saw something similiar. Also, The number 40 was around the number of starts where a team normally should know whether a QB is the guy or not.

 

[Max Power]

And during this "slump" he picked up an Offensive Player of the Week award.

against Houston none the less.

Is the implication that any success against Houston should immediately be discounted or that everyone who plays Houston has won offensive awards? Are we also going to downplay his game against Green Bay this year (27 of 36 for 306, 3 TDs, 1 INT) and Denver (13 of 18 for 270, 2 TDs, 0 INTs)? How about his Pro Bowl season from a year ago (62%, almost 3400 yds., 22 TDs, 9 INTs)?

nope, just pointing out who it was against. I have explained my thoughts on Rivers. He is a very average QB. Picked as high as he was picked, I think a franchise should expect more. Besides the Indy game the other night, Rivers hasnt beaten a team with a winning record this season. And that win was an ugly one where he had a QB rating under 40.

 

[-OZ-]

Im shocked owners still go the #1 overall to QB route. You are about to spend 10% of your payroll on a guy who probably wont be worth that money for at least 2-3 years. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but I would be willing to bet that over half the starting QBs in the NFL were not even first round picks. But for some reason Owners cant wait to take on #1.

I did a study last year on fantasy point distribution by draft round and found that about 50% of the QBs that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points in the last 5 years were drafted in the 1st round. There are certainly some busts but there are also guys like Palmer, Manning, McNabb, McNair that perform to their draft position. The other two good rounds were the 2nd (Favre, Brees, Plummer) and the 6th round (Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck). Where was this year's surprise QB, Derek Anderson, drafted? 6th round.

Just curious if you know how many #1 picks have won a Superbowl? I know Manning, Aikman and Elway. I'm too young to remember any before that.

Big Ben

Sorry, I ment #1 overall. I was curious to hear the SB % won by a QB taken #1 overall

Bradshaw and Plunkett are the other two I know of. So 1 by Manning, 3 by Aikman, 2 by Elway, 4 by Bradshaw, 1 by Plunkett. 11 out of 42.

It seems unfair to me to use the guys drafted before the 1967 common draft. So it's really been an even higher percentage than that.

That is an amazing stat. Makes you see why you take a QB #1.That said, I'd always take BPA. The screw-ups happen when you blindly take a QB #1 when he isn't the best player, Alex Smith vs. Braylon Edwards may be the best recent example of that.

 

[IM666]

during last night's borefest between the Seahawks and the Niner's, Jaws and Young were blasting the current state of scouting QBs. Things like how far a QB can throw a football while on their knees and other sideshow tricks are what "scouts" use to measure a QB's worth besides game tape.

ANyway, they mentioned that QBs like themselves are better judges of QB talent because they know the position and can "smell a real QB". So the question arises, why don't teams hire out former QBs as consultants, the same way that former coaches are brought in to consult for teams? Obvioulsy there's the matter of what it would cost a team to hire a former QB as a consultant, but it's got to be a drop in the well, compared to the ridiculous signing bonuses and contracts that new QBs garner before they even take the field.

It's also not a mortal lock that these guys will do better than scouts, but if you concede that point, the answer is...Money.

The good QBs make far more as broadcasters and analysts.

The same is true about most sports and scouts. They just don't pay much for these people.

Seems highly illogical to do that considering how much they invest in these top picks, but that's how organizations are typically run.

It's also not a glamorous existence, traveling every weekend to watch games live. They could do better as a "consultant" to come in and watch coaches' tape (much like Jaws does 120+ hours a week for NFL Matchup (kidding, they always exaggerate that number)), but it's still not where many of these veteran players want to be.

It's also far worse in baseball where they scout way more and pay less to their prospects.

Jeff, I seem to recall that the 2006 FBG Mag interviewed the guy that scouted Aikman. He talked about his system for identifying QBs to be top picks and succeed. Is there a link online to that for members somewhere? It'd be interesting to go back and reread it.

It was 2005, my bad. I believe FBG interviewed Jonathan Niednagel (if I'm wrong please correct me) Below is a discussion from Jonathan Niednagel given in 2003 regarding brain types:

Sporting News, The, April 28, 2003 (1) HEAD GAMES

Some NFL prospects are wired better than others

If an NFL team plans to draft Texas quarterback Chris Simms, it should not expect to get his father, Phil, the Super Bowl MVP and longtime quarterback of the Giants. Sure, Chris looks like his dad. Chris even sounds like his dad, but according to Jonathan Niednagel, the subtle difference is up top and inside, where the brain connects and delivers messages to the rest of the body.

"I like Chris, but they're not of the same wiring," says Niednagel, who has given counsel on draft and free-agent prospects to NFL teams and a few pro teams outside football, including the Reds and Nuggets. It's well-documented how the man called the "brain doctor" advised the Chargers against selecting Ryan Leaf based merely upon what he'd observed of Leaf's brain wiring.

Niednagel, head of the Brain Types Institute in Nottinghill, Mo., operates with an eight-letter alphabet. When he looks at a person, he sees four letters--or one of 16 combinations called brain types, which are determined by four basic pairs of psychological attributes (see inset).

Brain-type categories

(E)xtroverted vs. (I)ntroverted: Draws energy from others or from within.

(S)ensing vs. i(N)tuitive: Believes in only touch, taste, smell, sight and hearing or also in a sixth, guiding sense.

(T)hinking vs. (F)eeling: Bases decisions on either logic or emotion.

(J)udging vs. (P)erceiving: Is work-oriented or Is work-oriented or fun-oriented in approach to life.

Advertisement

And that's all Niednagel needs to do--observe for a few minutes--before offering critical information about the way an individual's brain is wired and what it could mean. "Each of these types has very specific motor skill areas," he says, "where for each type the cerebral cortex and the motor cortex are interconnected. If you watch the motor skills, you can know how their mind works."

Phil Simms is an ESTP, which Niednagel says is the best brain type for an NTL quarterback. Other ESTPs: Johnny Unitas, Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, John Elway, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and Jim Kelly. Chris Simms is an ENFP, and according to Niednagel, "Few ENFPs have been successful quarterbacks in recent NFL history."

Niednagel offers a look inside the heads of three other draft prospects:

Boss Bailey, LB, Georgia

Brain type: ISFP

Other ISFPs: Brian Urlacher, Carnell Lake, Ed "Too Tall" Jones, Steve Atwater.

"ESFPs and ISFPs are big-muscle dominant and right-brained; they have the ability to be the best defenders of all because when you give them a juke or try to fake them, they don't just follow your head the way the rest of us would take a juke and be faked out. These guys are able to just slide their bodies superbly. And he'll be a good tackler because when he hits guys, he'll be using his whole body. It won't be just arm tackling; he'll be able to punish guys."

Andre Johnson, WR, Miami

Brain type: ESFP

ESFPs: Keyshawn Johnson, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.

"ESTPs and ESFPs love the big game. Andre is designed to be a big-game player. That definitely perks him up. The thing is, ESFPs can sometimes get a little bit too uptight and tense. They're totally in touch with what's going on. They can tell you the temperature. They can tell you how hard the ground is. These guys, if it gets into the nasty kinds of weather, typically are going to be affected by it much more."

Eric Steinbach, G, Iowa

Brain type: ENTP

Other ENTPs: Dermontti Dawson, Tim Grunhard, Frank Winters, Will Shields.

"Almost all your best centers and guards are ENTPs, but you get the best tackles in SFPs (ESFP and ISFP) because of the big-muscle dominance. They were talking about moving him to tackle; not that he can't play it, but he won't have quite the body balance. He would excel more at the interior line, like center or offensive guard. ENTPs have really quick feet, so you'll often hear that they have really good footwork. He'll tend to be a little bit more on the finesse side."--Mike Kilduff

(2) THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING

Super Bowl heroes come from all over the draft board

For those who tune out the NFL draft after Round 1, consider when the MVP from each of the 37 Super Bowls was selected (or not selected) as proof no pick this weekend is irrelevant. Nearly as often as not--perhaps you've heard of three-time Big Game honcho Joe Montana and two-time honoree Bart Starr?--the MVP went to someone who had been picked from Round 1 on down. Terry Bradshaw is the only two-time winner among first-rounders.

No. 1 overall

Joe Namath (1965)

Terry Bradshaw (1970)

Jim Plunkett (1971)

John Elway (1983)

Steve Young (1984 *)

Troy Aikman (1989)

Top 10 overall

Randy White ** (2nd, 1975)

Len Dawson (4th, 1957)

Desmond Howard (4th, 1992)

Chuck Howley (6th, 1958)

John Riggins (6th, 1971)

Phil Simms (7th, 1979)

Larry Csonka (8th, 1968)

Ottis Anderson (8th, 1979)

Marcus Allen (10th, 1982)

First round

Franco Harris (13th, 1972)

Jerry Rice (16th, 1985)

Doug Williams (17th, 1978)

Emmitt Smith (17th, 1990)

Lynn Swann (21st, 1974)

Ray Lewis (26th, 1996)

Second round

Fred Biletnikoff (1965 (#))

Third round

Harvey Martin ** (53rd, 1973)

Joe Montana (82nd, 1979)

Fourth round

Dexter Jackson (113th, 1999)

Sixth round

Mark Rypien (146th, 1966)

Terrell Davis (196th, 1995)

Tom Brady (199th, 2000)

Seventh round

Jake Scott (159th, 1970)

Eigth round

Richard Dent (203rd, 1983)

10th round

Roger Staubach (129th, 1964)

12th round

Larry Brown (320th, 1991)

17th round

Bart Starr (199th, 1956)

Undrafted

Kurt Warner (1994)

* Selected in a supplemental draft

** Co-MVP

(#) Overall pick number not available