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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (4 Viewers)

Personally think Hill looks better than Lacy in watching both. I agree he's not in that AP, Charles, Lesean talent class but I'd say he's in that next group. I really don't see any weaknesses in his game. He looks a lot like Leveon Bell to me.

 
Too bad he wasn't named starter from the beginning of the season.

As I said before, Jeremy Hill was a 1400-yard rusher just waiting to happen.

Happily started him. My team is being carried by three rookies (ODB, Mike Evans and Jeremy Hill).

 
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I'm sure if JStew or CMich had shown anything close to what Hill did today we'd be hearing about how they are the next ubber talent studs in the NFL.

 
Even with Hill getting the lion's share, I think each will have games where they are the top fantasy rb scorer. Almost like a better version of the patriots or saints backfield. I'm still ok starting both each week in ppr for a combined 25-35 points a week out of two rb spots. Of course there will be a dud week sprinkled in every so often but you can't predict that so I won't worry about it.

ETA by both I meant Hill and Gio. Probably understood but figured I better clarify.

 
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fruity pebbles said:
Personally think Hill looks better than Lacy in watching both. I agree he's not in that AP, Charles, Lesean talent class but I'd say he's in that next group. I really don't see any weaknesses in his game. He looks a lot like Leveon Bell to me.
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Yea, I don't disagree with any of that.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Personally think Hill looks better than Lacy in watching both. I agree he's not in that AP, Charles, Lesean talent class but I'd say he's in that next group. I really don't see any weaknesses in his game. He looks a lot like Leveon Bell to me.
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It's also easier to run when Aaron Rodgers is your qb vs. andy dalton

 
He is the best RB in Cincy....and the guy I am facing next week blocked me from the handcuff of Gio on draft day and has never started him this season. After this week I have a feeling I will be seeing him next week....while Gio continues to rot on my bench. Pretty impressed by Hill, though. Definitely a guy to look for next year.

 
Hill is the man. The winds of change just blew in Cincinnati, and it's over now.

In the future, I look for Hill to get around 20 carries, and Gio around 10.

The only concern I have, is that I think the Bengals are about to implode again. They have the division lead, but they finish against Denver and Pittsburgh. This implosion is going to keep them OUT of the playoffs. Will this cost Marvin Lewis his job?

Who knows what 2015 will hold for the Bengals, but one thing I do know is that Hill is one of the best young RB's in the game today.

His patience, vision and strength are impressive. I think he's everything we all thought Jonathan Stewart would be.

 
bostonfred said:
Tip my cap, he looks awesome today.
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I know you seemed to take it personally when people disagreed with your stance (and sure perhaps at times people had a little too much fun poking the bear), but this was the point I was trying to make all along. Situations change very quickly in this league so it was a little shortsighted to take such a hardline stance and throw out statements like "roster poison" and "low upside" when frankly those positions were very extreme, even if everything thing you stated about a 50/50 split was assumed to be true.

Even now all of those on the pro-Hill side of the debate will be jumping for joy and claiming victory, but Bernard didn't look all that bad himself. In two weeks things may shift back the other way. Things can change quickly.

 
bostonfred said:
You guys are really missing out on freeman imo.
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I would not be shocked if he has a nice career. He hasn't looked bad. He just doesn't see enough carries.

I also wouldn't be shocked if he's never more than a "time share" type back either though to be honest. He's a guy that is decent enough in all aspects, but doesn't excel in any particular skill set. A smaller back like him has a harder time succeeding without excelling in any aspect of the game - having better speed would help for instance.

Plenty of backs that fit his mold have managed to put together a handful of good to great seasons though. If Freeman was the feature back in Atlanta next season, I see no reason why he couldn't put up 1,400 total yards and 5-8 TDs. I'd just be leery of Atlanta signing a veteran free agent or drafting a more talented back if I did own him.

He's a good "buy low" target though.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
bostonfred said:
Tip my cap, he looks awesome today.
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I know you seemed to take it personally when people disagreed with your stance (and sure perhaps at times people had a little too much fun poking the bear), but this was the point I was trying to make all along. Situations change very quickly in this league so it was a little shortsighted to take such a hardline stance and throw out statements like "roster poison" and "low upside" when frankly those positions were very extreme, even if everything thing you stated about a 50/50 split was assumed to be true.

Even now all of those on the pro-Hill side of the debate will be jumping for joy and claiming victory, but Bernard didn't look all that bad himself. In two weeks things may shift back the other way. Things can change quickly.
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Exactly. Before the season even began he basically ruled out any chance that Hill could carve out a large roll, not only this season but for the next 4 years. It was silly at the time, and has obviously proven to be completely incorrect (still not sure if he would admit it though). He compounded that faulty reasoning by spinning how frequently he was started, how he performed those weeks, etc. Like I said somewhere up thread- he was very EBF-like with his take on the situation.

I agree with the last part as well. Hill looks great right now, but several things could happen that could slam on the breaks- attitude/off field issues, injury, fumbles (although he didn't lose a single one in college), regime change, etc.

 
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Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill out-snapped Giovani Bernard 47-28 in the Bengals' Week 15 win over the Browns.

Hill's 62.6-percent snap rate was a four-week-high, while Bernard's 37.3-percent rate was a four-week-low. The Bengals ended up smashing the Browns 30-0 to remain in control of the AFC North. And they did it on the legs of Hill. He punished the Browns for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, adding one catch for four yards. Meanwhile, Bernard piled up 103 yards on 18 touches but was the definitive No. 2 to Hill. Hill is a legit RB1 for Week 16. Bernard is just a FLEX.

Related: Giovani Bernard

Source: Pro Football Focus
Dec 15 - 11:20 AM
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One said:
Looking ahead, thoughts on his next matchup?

At Home - vs. Denver - on MNF
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The matchup looks bad on paper. Great run defense and DEN has slowed things down to a standstill on offense. However...I would think that CIN are coming in on fire and I would expect them to go run heavy yet again. Hue seems to be really excited with the way they won the game, highlighting that last Burkhead TD where the CLE defense knew what was coming and still were not able to stop it. With Trevathan and Marshall injured I guess DEN will be starting Todd Davis at WLB and Steven Johnson in the middle. We might not see the same type of run defense that they've had earlier this season.

I still don't expect CIN to score a lot of TDs and there's always a risk that Hue will abandon the run if they fall behind by a couple, but the expectation would be that they try to beat up on the Broncos. What else are they going to do? Attack Talib and Harris with Von Miller going up against a backup RT? Ask Dalton to dink and dunk without his top two TEs through a compact defense? The three teams that have beaten DEN this season are SEA, NEP and STL. NEP won in a shootout, STL and SEA won with strong defense and a run heavy approach.

It's not a great matchup but it could be a volume play.

 
bostonfred said:
You guys are really missing out on freeman imo.
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I own Hill and Freeman (in different dynasty leagues) and I think they will both have good careers. Freeman's long-term situation may be (arguably) better than Hill's, but I think Hill is unquestionably the better talent, and I'll take proven production over potential any day of the week.

 
Boomer also compared Hill to Dillon last week (he should know). If he gets 123 rushing yards in the next two games, he will be the first Bengal rookie to rush for 1,000+ yards since Dillon, 17 years ago. There is an embedded, 1:44 highlight video below in the article that stat was mentioned in, not sure if the one EBF linked. On the pitch to the left side (which they incorporated into the game plan for the first time all season - once CIN attacked the edge and gashed CLE, the run defense didn't crowd the middle as much, which than in turn opened up running lanes THERE), he showed pretty impressive movement skills, COD ability and elusiveness for a big back. Nice stiff arm, too, on the second TD.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Thrill-Hill-crashes-Johnnys-rookie-bash/184e860d-7f43-47ed-9a3b-a082b6b5f787

 
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Louche said:
One said:
Looking ahead, thoughts on his next matchup?

At Home - vs. Denver - on MNF
Click to expand...
The matchup looks bad on paper. Great run defense and DEN has slowed things down to a standstill on offense. However...I would think that CIN are coming in on fire and I would expect them to go run heavy yet again. Hue seems to be really excited with the way they won the game, highlighting that last Burkhead TD where the CLE defense knew what was coming and still were not able to stop it. With Trevathan and Marshall injured I guess DEN will be starting Todd Davis at WLB and Steven Johnson in the middle. We might not see the same type of run defense that they've had earlier this season.

I still don't expect CIN to score a lot of TDs and there's always a risk that Hue will abandon the run if they fall behind by a couple, but the expectation would be that they try to beat up on the Broncos. What else are they going to do? Attack Talib and Harris with Von Miller going up against a backup RT? Ask Dalton to dink and dunk without his top two TEs through a compact defense? The three teams that have beaten DEN this season are SEA, NEP and STL. NEP won in a shootout, STL and SEA won with strong defense and a run heavy approach.

It's not a great matchup but it could be a volume play.
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As Sig said in tonight's Upgrade/Downgrade piece, you'd have to be absolutely stacked at RB not to start Hill this week.

 
I was worried about Hill this week when i saw they were playing Denver, as Denver has done a really good job against rb's so far. But when looking inside the numbers, much of that success for Denver comes from not really playing a lot of good rushing teams.

Hill should have a really solid week against Denver.

 
Denver LBs Marshall & Trevathan will also be OUT this week (and beyond). :shrug: Denver D line is still stout, and game flow could go against, but I'll take whatever positive news I can get.

Wasn't Trevathan especially good in covering TE/RB? Makes me consider Gio as a 2nd flex type of play...

 
Love watching Hill run. Obviously the volume helps him (as opposed to earlier this year where they were using the two backs to their opposite strengths), but I've also noticed that Hill's patience has gotten better. It seems as if after the Steeler game, he's waited on his blocks much better, allowing the hole to develop before gashing the seam (something that Bell is great at).

 
Rushmore said:
Love watching Hill run. Obviously the volume helps him (as opposed to earlier this year where they were using the two backs to their opposite strengths), but I've also noticed that Hill's patience has gotten better. It seems as if after the Steeler game, he's waited on his blocks much better, allowing the hole to develop before gashing the seam (something that Bell is great at).
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http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Thrill-Hill-crashes-Johnnys-rookie-bash/184e860d-7f43-47ed-9a3b-a082b6b5f787

Hill said he and Bernard took a page out of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell a week after Bell shredded the Bengals on 185 yards.

“They used that Bears defense with a lot of guys up front and that’s what they did in the last game,” Hill said. “Hue did a great job seeing they didn’t have any guys out there on the perimeter and had both of our receivers running into man coverage, and he got out playmakers into the open field. “We stole a few moves from (Bell),” Hill said. “A lot of guys just run down hill and run into people, but sometimes you have to set up the blocks just being patient and hitting it.”

 
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shader said:
Hill is the man. The winds of change just blew in Cincinnati, and it's over now.

In the future, I look for Hill to get around 20 carries, and Gio around 10.

The only concern I have, is that I think the Bengals are about to implode again. They have the division lead, but they finish against Denver and Pittsburgh. This implosion is going to keep them OUT of the playoffs. Will this cost Marvin Lewis his job?

Who knows what 2015 will hold for the Bengals, but one thing I do know is that Hill is one of the best young RB's in the game today.

His patience, vision and strength are impressive. I think he's everything we all thought Jonathan Stewart would be.
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why? they only need to win 1 out of the next 2. they are coming off of a great performance, shellacking the browns in a must win game. hell, they could lose both and still make the playoffs, none of buff, kc, or sd win out. and kc plays sd, so that eliminates 1 of those teams. they are pretty heavy favorites to make the playoffs, say 85%.

they need buff to lose either @ oak, or @ ne (obv bid dogs in that one)

kc to lose either @ pit or vs sd

sd to lose either @ sf or @ kc

 
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Squintz82 said:
Rushmore said:
Love watching Hill run. Obviously the volume helps him (as opposed to earlier this year where they were using the two backs to their opposite strengths), but I've also noticed that Hill's patience has gotten better. It seems as if after the Steeler game, he's waited on his blocks much better, allowing the hole to develop before gashing the seam (something that Bell is great at).
Click to expand...
http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Thrill-Hill-crashes-Johnnys-rookie-bash/184e860d-7f43-47ed-9a3b-a082b6b5f787

Hill said he and Bernard took a page out of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell a week after Bell shredded the Bengals on 185 yards.

“They used that Bears defense with a lot of guys up front and that’s what they did in the last game,” Hill said. “Hue did a great job seeing they didn’t have any guys out there on the perimeter and had both of our receivers running into man coverage, and he got out playmakers into the open field. “We stole a few moves from (Bell),” Hill said. “A lot of guys just run down hill and run into people, but sometimes you have to set up the blocks just being patient and hitting it.”
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Wow, that is very cool. Thanks for posting that. Makes me feel kinda cool for having that observation :nerd:

 
Alluded to above, but does DEN post strong run defense numbers because they have a great run defense, or is this a broader, situational artifact statistic related to their offense being so good (forcing opposing offenses to pass if they get behind early, and a strong offense keeps their defense off the field for long stretches, period - though they haven't dominated recently like they did earlier in the season and last year)?*

Though, if the latter, and CIN gets behind by a lot early, it could play out that way for Hill, too.

Game script background, per the last point.

Small sample, but in the past month, DEN's scoring has declined from:

39 (MIA)

29 (KC)

24 (BUF)

22 (SD)

* Of course, perhaps a combination of factors, including the above.

 
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Bob Magaw said:
Alluded to above, but does DEN post strong run defense numbers because they have a great run defense, or is this a broader, situational artifact statistic related to their offense being so good (forcing opposing offenses to pass if they get behind early, and a strong offense keeps their defense off the field for long stretches, period - though they haven't dominated recently like they did earlier in the season and last year)?*

Though, if the latter, and CIN gets behind by a lot early, it could play out that way for Hill, too.

Game script background, per the last point.

Small sample, but in the past month, DEN's scoring has declined from:

39 (MIA)

29 (KC)

24 (BUF)

22 (SD)

* Of course, perhaps a combination of factors, including the above.
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Part of the reason that they have low rushing yards allowed per game is based on gameflow, but they've still only allowed 3.4 yards per attempt which is the second best in the league. The top 5 are: DET, DEN, NYJ, SEA, BAL. They are in pretty good company. They also score very well in run defense at PFF and FO so I think it's safe to say that their run defense has been strong this season.

In their last four games they've allowed 4.6, 2.7, 4.6, and 2.8 yards per game for an average of 67 yards per game.

 
Bob Magaw said:
Alluded to above, but does DEN post strong run defense numbers because they have a great run defense, or is this a broader, situational artifact statistic related to their offense being so good (forcing opposing offenses to pass if they get behind early, and a strong offense keeps their defense off the field for long stretches, period - though they haven't dominated recently like they did earlier in the season and last year)?*

.
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The latter is true and definitely can't be discounted, IMO. I think Hill is a good start @home in a game Cin will try to pound the run.
 
whiskey7 said:
Bob Magaw said:
Alluded to above, but does DEN post strong run defense numbers because they have a great run defense, or is this a broader, situational artifact statistic related to their offense being so good (forcing opposing offenses to pass if they get behind early, and a strong offense keeps their defense off the field for long stretches, period - though they haven't dominated recently like they did earlier in the season and last year)?*

.
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The latter is true and definitely can't be discounted, IMO. I think Hill is a good start @home in a game Cin will try to pound the run.
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It sure seems like the Broncos are saving whatever throws Manning has left in that noodle for the playoffs.

I think this portends a tight game in the low 20s with both teams running the ball a lot.

I'll be starting Hill for sure. Now, could he get shut down somewhat? Possible.

Might Denver get out to a 14-0 lead early and goad Cincy into abandoning the run (a la the first Cleveland game)? Sure.

But it's also possible Hill gets his 100 yards and a TD.

 
With Russel Wilson (& soon, the Seattle DST) doing his thing, Hill reasonably won't be able to help me out, but I hope he comes through for fellow owners.

 
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