Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

And he doesn't have to average 100 yards per game over 16, in a typical year, maybe one or zero RBs do that. But you were probably referring to having the outburst games to counterbalance the inevitable down ones.

To get to 1,275 (which only four RBs did last year) divided by 16 = just under 80 yards per game. He will have less in some. But if has any 150+ yarders, he needs less than 10 the next week and he is still on schedule.

I might be overly-optimistic based on his incendiary last nine game stretch. A third of which Bernard didn't play in. But the flip side is, we also have to account for the fewer carries he got in the first seven games, before he supplanted Bernard as the feature RB.

Those first seven games carries, nearly half the season (I think Bernard injured games 8-10): 4, 15, 7, 2, 8, 4 and 10 = a total of 50 carries, or a hair more than 7 per games. That will probably be less than half of a typical week, maybe a third in some weeks. Approaching the midseason point, barring injury, he seems destined to have a significant lead over and above where he was at yardage-wise at the same point as a rookie, in his soph campaign. He won't need as many monster games in the second half to do very well.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

And he doesn't have to average 100 yards per game over 16, in a typical year, maybe one or zero RBs do that. But you were probably referring to having the outburst games to counterbalance the inevitable down ones.

To get to 1,275 (which only four RBs did last year) divided by 16 = just under 80 yards per game. He will have less in some. But if has any 150+ yarders, he needs less than 10 the next week and he is still on schedule.

This is just it. Due to the down games I want my rb to counter it with receptions and td's. Now, Hill did have 9 td's last year, but he also had 9 games where he did not score a TD.

I am assuming most leagues are ppr now a days (I only play ppr). Hill finished nicely as rb 10 in my main league right after Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett and only 7 spots ahead of Gio.

Is Hill going to step into the Lacy, Bell, Lynch, Foster, Charles, Murray, Mccory type? Those are guys that have been there done that and most are all purpose backs. Or is he going to be more Alfred Morris or Mark Ingram or Stevan Ridley? The last 3 serve a purpose in fantasy, but are they premium?

I am not ready to pay a premium for Hill at this stage. I get that some are, I am just stating why I am not. You can give me stats to out line how Hill as a rookie showed a ton more than those other guys ever have, but I still would like to see a sophomore campaign. Call it a preference. If you own Hill he is a hold. If you don't own Hill I would not over pay at this stage.

 

[humpback]

Yes he was, but I just don't see Hill getting 20 plus rush attempts on a weekly basis.


Hill will lead the team in rush attempts no doubt, but if you envision a scenario with Hill getting 300 plus rush attempts on the year with a healthy Gio back there it is wishful thinking.

Week 12 and 13 Hill was not good, but bounced back with studly weeks in week 14, 15 and 16. Now Hill is being treated as an RB1. I get that all RB1's have some inconsistent weeks, but to me Hill's percentage of having inconsistent weeks is greater than the other RB1s due to the Gio factor. Just as the inconsistency was greater with Stewart and Williams.

The only player to average 20+ rushing attempts on a weekly basis last year was Murray, and McCoy was the only other one to top 300 on the season. I think people often throw out numbers like this without fully realizing what they mean.

I am saying that Hill will never be fully as good as he could be without Gio in the picture.

Williams and Stewart was just an example that comes into play because both guys in their prime never seemed to fully reach their potential and often times were inconsistent. I guess it is not doubting Hill as much as doubting the usage he will get due to Gio being a quality back who will get touches.

In games Cincy is not leading you will see heavy Gio usage.

Hill is the better rb and can be a feature guy in the NFL and be a very great player if he was the only guy. But he is not the only guy and that is scaring me away. This is not one young RB about to take over from an aging vet. It is two young talented RB's.

You could say the same thing about pretty much every RB outside of Murray (last year)- things aren't going to line up perfectly for most of them, so they rarely hit their "ceiling". I also think you're overestimating how big of a threat Gio is- I do like him, but as a rusher, he's put up a 4.1 and 4.0 ypc in his first two seasons. He'll have a role and will limit Hill's upside some, but it's not like he's competing with Charles or Bell back there.

That is my point. Look at the huge games he had and how many rushes he received in those games to get those numbers.

There were 5 times Hill went over 100 yards last year and in those games he did so by receiving 23 plus carries a game. Therefore, playing devils advocate here we all know Hill is capable of huge games, but what are the odds of him getting those type of volume carries throughout a 16 game season (23 plus rush attempts).

Maybe Cincy will feed him as it is apparent that he seems to get better in a game with more carries. They did give him those volume games late in the year with both him and Gio together so maybe he will be that guy that people envision in this thread.

For the record I don't own either guy. People are paying premium for Hill based on a very good rookie season for a rb, but I am just not quite on board yet. If I am paying premium for a RB I don't want another young RB like Gio on the team and I also want my guy to catch passes.

He also had good fantasy games when he had 15 and 18 carries, and it wasn't as if the only reason he had great games in those others was because of the volume- he put up great ypc numbers in most of those.

No one is projecting him to get 23 plus rushing attempts per game through a 16 game season- if they were, he'd be valued as a top 3 RB. He'll be fine with the likely 16-18 carries per game average, and he'll almost certainly have a few huge games again.

 

[georg013]

And he doesn't have to average 100 yards per game over 16, in a typical year, maybe one or zero RBs do that. But you were probably referring to having the outburst games to counterbalance the inevitable down ones.

To get to 1,275 (which only four RBs did last year) divided by 16 = just under 80 yards per game. He will have less in some. But if has any 150+ yarders, he needs less than 10 the next week and he is still on schedule.

This is just it. Due to the down games I want my rb to counter it with receptions and td's. Now, Hill did have 9 td's last year, but he also had 9 games where he did not score a TD.

I am assuming most leagues are ppr now a days (I only play ppr). Hill finished nicely as rb 10 in my main league right after Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett and only 7 spots ahead of Gio.

Is Hill going to step into the Lacy, Bell, Lynch, Foster, Charles, Murray, Mccory type? Those are guys that have been there done that and most are all purpose backs. Or is he going to be more Alfred Morris or Mark Ingram or Stevan Ridley? The last 3 serve a purpose in fantasy, but are they premium?

I am not ready to pay a premium for Hill at this stage. I get that some are, I am just stating why I am not. You can give me stats to out line how Hill as a rookie showed a ton more than those other guys ever have, but I still would like to see a sophomore campaign. Call it a preference. If you own Hill he is a hold. If you don't own Hill I would not over pay at this stage.

Typically, I am not one to overpay for players either. HOWEVER, in watching Jeremy Hill last season, I didn't want to pass up on the opportunity to pounce on a PROMISING player early in his career before the price gets even more ridiculous. Right now we are debating whether or not he is worth the price. If I wait a year, I run the risk of never being to acquire him without giving up the kitchen sink. Granted, there is always a chance he doesn't live up to the billing. But as many in here have shown, the evidence shows that he has a better shot than most. I was willing to take that risk in hopes that my asset increases in value. Not so that I can sell him. But because I need a good young back to help me win titles.

 

[Bob Magaw]

And he doesn't have to average 100 yards per game over 16, in a typical year, maybe one or zero RBs do that. But you were probably referring to having the outburst games to counterbalance the inevitable down ones.

To get to 1,275 (which only four RBs did last year) divided by 16 = just under 80 yards per game. He will have less in some. But if has any 150+ yarders, he needs less than 10 the next week and he is still on schedule.

This is just it. Due to the down games I want my rb to counter it with receptions and td's. Now, Hill did have 9 td's last year, but he also had 9 games where he did not score a TD.

I am assuming most leagues are ppr now a days (I only play ppr). Hill finished nicely as rb 10 in my main league right after Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett and only 7 spots ahead of Gio.

Is Hill going to step into the Lacy, Bell, Lynch, Foster, Charles, Murray, Mccory type? Those are guys that have been there done that and most are all purpose backs. Or is he going to be more Alfred Morris or Mark Ingram or Stevan Ridley? The last 3 serve a purpose in fantasy, but are they premium?

I am not ready to pay a premium for Hill at this stage. I get that some are, I am just stating why I am not. You can give me stats to out line how Hill as a rookie showed a ton more than those other guys ever have, but I still would like to see a sophomore campaign. Call it a preference. If you own Hill he is a hold. If you don't own Hill I would not over pay at this stage.

That sounds sensible. I have him in a couple of leagues and am not shopping him because I think he is for real, but am not looking to acquire him in any I don't have him, because I wouldn't want to blow up a team for a player who does have a pretty unproven track record. But I haven't looked into it either way, if I was offered a king's ransom, I'd consider it, and maybe it wouldn't cost as much to acquire him as I think (but I suspect this latter isn't the case).

Tracking TDs in first seven games (pre-takeover) and last nine games (post-takover):

first seven - 1 TD in three separate games, 0 in the four other games.

last nine - Scored 2 TD twice and 1 TD twice, so 6 total, 0 in the five other games.

Not seeing a big connection in the distribution of TD/TD-less games by pre/post-takeover timeline. There was a difference in the scoring pattern, in the sense that he had no multiple TD games in the first seven games, and did it twice in the last nine. The first was when Bernard was out (eighth game), the second wasn't. Than again, though, that sounds like it is probably just a function of his having less carries pre-takover, if they had doubled (or tripled) like post-takeover, not a stretch to think he might have had one or two more multiple TD games?

I'd reiterate that Murray and Lynch were the only RBs to score more than his 9 rushing TDs (13 each), and he could see an uptick if he goes from 222 carries to 250-275, really only about 30-50 more, 2-3 more carries per game, he'll no doubt have games less than his peak in the second half, but should have many more carries in the first half of the season. That could more than compensate. Good point about PPR, I think most leagues are, too (not all of mine, but most, I think one is .5 pt PPR). I'm interested to see how Hue Jackson mixes things up to not tip their hands too much. It might be to the advantage of CIN, instead of giving Hill 18 rush attempts and 2 receptions, maybe something more like 17 rushes and 3 receptions, just so having Hill in doesn't always equates to a run, which helps the defense with things like whether to and how to situationally sub.

I have been burned acquiring promising second year players (like Cordarelle Patterson), so I completely understand the tempered and attenuated enthusiasm, for now, that could be a prudent course. I do think we'll know more about if he is special or not, by his second season (likely before it is over).

Larry compiled the vet and rookie lists with highest number of 145+ yard game seasons. I think Dickerson and Sanders were the only ones on both. Also, there were only two VET RBs that made that list more than once (Sanders again, and O.J. Simpson). If he again puts a dent in these lists populated by some historically great RBs, than, per Ian Fleming's saying, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”, extending his impressive early trajectory into and through his second season, would put him a step closer to the next and last category.

 

[cstu]

Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G ▴ Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%Jeremy Hill 2014 22 2-55 CIN NFL 16 8 222 1124 5.06 9 70.3 32 27 215 7.96 0 13.4 84.4Corey Dillon 1997 23 2-43 CIN NFL 16 6 233 1129 4.85 10 70.6 27 259 9.59 0 16.2 Eerily similar rookie numbers for Hill and Dillon.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G ▴ Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%Jeremy Hill 2014 22 2-55 CIN NFL 16 8 222 1124 5.06 9 70.3 32 27 215 7.96 0 13.4 84.4Corey Dillon 1997 23 2-43 CIN NFL 16 6 233 1129 4.85 10 70.6 27 259 9.59 0 16.2 Eerily similar rookie numbers for Hill and Dillon.

that's pretty crazy

let's hope for the same career path

 

[Bob Magaw]

Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G ▴ Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%Jeremy Hill 2014 22 2-55 CIN NFL 16 8 222 1124 5.06 9 70.3 32 27 215 7.96 0 13.4 84.4Corey Dillon 1997 23 2-43 CIN NFL 16 6 233 1129 4.85 10 70.6 27 259 9.59 0 16.2Eerily similar rookie numbers for Hill and Dillon.

Did Dillon start right away?

* Didn't see it, no, Dillon with six, and Hill with eight starts.

I think Dillon broke the single game rookie rushing record. Dillon was a stud in his time, very talented. He just didn't get a lot of notoriety.

 

[cstu]

Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G ▴ Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%Jeremy Hill 2014 22 2-55 CIN NFL 16 8 222 1124 5.06 9 70.3 32 27 215 7.96 0 13.4 84.4Corey Dillon 1997 23 2-43 CIN NFL 16 6 233 1129 4.85 10 70.6 27 259 9.59 0 16.2Eerily similar rookie numbers for Hill and Dillon.

Did Dillon start right away?

* Didn't see it, no, Dillon with six, and Hill with eight starts.

I think Dillon broke the single game rookie rushing record. Dillon was a stud in his time, very talented. He just didn't get a lot of notoriety.

Dillon was a very good RB and his stats (especially TD's) were held back playing on awful Bengals teams.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In the first quarter against San Jose State in mid-November, Dillon rushed for 222 yards and caught an 83-yard touchdown pass, setting NCAA records for both rushing yards and all-purpose yards (305) in one quarter.[1] Dillon did not re-enter the game as the Huskies were comfortably ahead 25–0 by the end of the first quarter

 

[Bob Magaw]

Insane first quarter numbers.

Maybe he could have had 888 rushing yards and 1,220 total yards if they had kept their foot on the gas. Maybe more if the defense got tired in the fourth quarter.

1916 Georgia Tech vs. Cumberland (222-0)*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Cumberland_vs._Georgia_Tech_football_game

Cumberland was 27 for -42 rushing, with 9 lost fumbles (not much better passing, 2 of 18 for 14 yards with 6 INTs).

Georgia Tech was 40 for 978 rushing, with 32 TDs, 30 of 32 PATs (on only eight plays out of 40 did they not score a TD, no pass attempts).

* "Cumberland College, a school in Lebanon, Tennessee, had discontinued its football program before the season but was not allowed to cancel its game against the Engineers. The fact that Cumberland's baseball team had crushed Georgia Tech earlier that year 220 (amidst allegations that Cumberland used professionals as ringers) probably accounted for Georgia Tech coach John Heisman's running up the score on the Bulldogs, Heisman also being the Engineers' baseball coach. He insisted on the schools' scheduling agreement, which required Cumberland to pay $3,000 ($70,000 in inflation-adjusted terms) to Tech if its football team failed to show. So, George E. Allen (who was elected to serve as Cumberland's football team student manager after first serving as the baseball team student manager) put together a team of 14 men to travel to Atlanta as Cumberland's football team.

Another reason for Heisman's plan to run up the score was the practice among the sportswriters of the time to rank teams based upon how many points they scored. Since this statistic did not account for the strength or weakness of a team's opponent, Heisman disagreed with the amount of weight the writers tended to assign to it, and he may have unleashed his players on Cumberland to make his point."

"The Engineers led 630 after the first quarter and 1260 at halftime. Tech added 54 more points in the third quarter and 42 in the final period. Cumberland's only effective defense was an extra point blocked with a sort of human pyramid."

"... neither team made a first down."

** So this is where the Heisman Trophy name came from.

 

[Van Dyman]

I think Dillon broke the single game rookie rushing record.

Yes, against the Tennessee Oilers.

 

[Bob Magaw]

A record later broken by Adrian Peterson, I think (against CHI?)*.

* Payton held the record about 23 years, Dillon nearly three years, Jamal Lewis four years and Peterson will be eight this season.

Wiki - On October 22, 2000, Dillon set an NFL record for most yards rushed in one game (278 yards) against the Denver Broncos, breaking Walter Payton’s single-game mark of 275 yards set on November 20, 1977. The record has since been broken by Jamal Lewis (295 yards) on September 14, 2003, and Adrian Peterson (296 yards) on November 4, 2007.

 

[RBM]

A record later broken by Adrian Peterson, I think (against CHI?)*.

* Payton held the record about 23 years, Dillon nearly three years, Jamal Lewis four years and Peterson will be eight this season.

Wiki - On October 22, 2000, Dillon set an NFL record for most yards rushed in one game (278 yards) against the Denver Broncos, breaking Walter Payton’s single-game mark of 275 yards set on November 20, 1977. The record has since been broken by Jamal Lewis (295 yards) on September 14, 2003, and Adrian Peterson (296 yards) on November 4, 2007.

San Diego

 

[humpback]

Drafted O-linemen in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

 

[georg013]

Ready to rock

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Ready to rock

get out of this thread

 

[Mister CIA]

Just stopping by to smell the roses.

 

[georg013]

Ready to rock

get out of this thread

I am this thread

 

[Louche]

Drafted O-linemen in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Interesting picks. Whereas the CIN o-line has been more focused on power both of these guys are very athletic. Good for Hill and great for Gio. It emphasizes that Hue Jackson wants to run a high tempo, physical offense. If everyone can stay healthy the offense should improve greatly from last season, but somebody needs to step up as an option in the short passing game. My money is on Eifert, but I don't understand why they didn't get one of the slot receivers that were available in the 4th/5th.

 

[cheese]

The downside is that makes it a virtual lock that Andre won't be back after this deal and it is hard to believe these guys are better in the run game than him.

 

[Louche]

The downside is that makes it a virtual lock that Andre won't be back after this deal and it is hard to believe these guys are better in the run game than him.

I think Andre has been very inconsistent. At his best he's a Pro Bowl caliber player, but he can be clumsy on plays that demand a lot of movement from him, he has some frustrating mental lapses, and I feel he has regressed over the last couple years. That being said the o-line fell apart when Andre got injured, but I'm not sure I'd like CIN to sign him to another big contract. I think the athleticism of Fisher and Ogbuehi signals that they want to do more outside and we'll see more zone.

I know that CIN see both these guys as physical players as they've mentioned this in press conferences and that's what Jackson's offensive mentality is built on, so while they are both potential LTs they should be more than fine at RT - but Jackson is also a fan of versatility and finding game-specific strategies to attack the weak point of a defense, and I think they're looking to add some more east/west finesse to compliment the power running game. Hill can succeed in any type of blocking scheme as he can both hit the hole hard and go outside or cut back, but Gio is a poor fit for a power running game so overall this should add another dimension to the offense.

I felt pretty deflated that they went tackle with both of their first two picks, but like they're saying; it's not every day you get a chance to take a tackle and both of these guys are potential starting LTs and if you believe that you can't pass that up even though you might not have a need at the position. We will probably see both these players line up at TE at times this season so Hill should have every opportunity to rack up yards.

 

[humpback]

The downside is that makes it a virtual lock that Andre won't be back after this deal and it is hard to believe these guys are better in the run game than him.

I don't think this draft is going to impact that much at all. If Andre stays healthy and plays well, they'll try and re-sign him as long as he doesn't price himself out of their market. This just gives them more options in case those things don't happen. Also, Whitworth is a FA after the season (and will be 34 years old in December).

Those guys may not be better in the run game than Smith/Whitworth, but they're better than having no real plan B, that's for sure.

 

[Faust]

Hill expects 'balance attack' in Bengals' backfield

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where is Hill being ranked in dynasty, between top 5-10?

 

[Tool]

Hill expects 'balance attack' in Bengals' backfield

I like that Hill's saying the right things. Shows maturity.

 

[Tool]

Where is Hill being ranked in dynasty, between top 5-10?

Considering his age, who would be ahead of him? Charles, Lacy I suppose but who else? I guess Gurley and maybe Gordon. I wouldn't pick Lynch or Foster ahead of him as they have only 1 or 2 more years.

 

[scott46984]

Just as I ask in all the other topics we (posters) have varying opinions on, what does Jeremy Hill need to do in order to convince those people who are in the fence that he is the real deal? Im ok with another solid year but will this turn into another Eddie Lacy thread?

no, this guy is legit

go back to pimping richardson, plz, and stop jinxing us over here

I am not down on Hill, but it is tough to get super excited about Hill as a stud guy when he is going to be sharing the backfield with Gio. As I stated earlier this has Stewart and Williams written all over it. I am staying away from this situation for that specific reason. Hill just won't be consistent enough for the price you have to pay for him.

I think this bolded is right. This is going to be a Deangelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart comparable situation when both are healthy, although I think Hill will have the edge in production. Past experience says better value is in the perceived lesser of the two, which in this case says Gio will be the better value vs ADP in my opinion.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Just as I ask in all the other topics we (posters) have varying opinions on, what does Jeremy Hill need to do in order to convince those people who are in the fence that he is the real deal? Im ok with another solid year but will this turn into another Eddie Lacy thread?

no, this guy is legit

go back to pimping richardson, plz, and stop jinxing us over here

I am not down on Hill, but it is tough to get super excited about Hill as a stud guy when he is going to be sharing the backfield with Gio. As I stated earlier this has Stewart and Williams written all over it. I am staying away from this situation for that specific reason. Hill just won't be consistent enough for the price you have to pay for him.

I think this bolded is right. This is going to be a Deangelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart comparable situation when both are healthy, although I think Hill will have the edge in production. Past experience says better value is in the perceived lesser of the two, which in this case says Gio will be the better value vs ADP in my opinion.

I just bought Gio for a lower price in a ppr league. So I now have a vested interest in a situation I did not really want to be a part of.

I am not high on either guy in this situation as they both are very good players but together it is tough to get super excited about either. I am hoping week to week to take the guy who will catch a lot more passes as being more consistent.

 

[Bob Magaw]

(All numbers rushing unless stated otherwise)

Hill rookie season fun facts:

Missed games - 0

Starts - 8/16

100 yard games - 5

147+ yard games - 4

TDs - 9

(the two levels of yardage categories don't necessarily overlap 100% with the starts category, I didn't check)

Stewart career

Missed games - 22 (slightly more than 3 per season, on average)

Starts - 28/90 (in seven seasons, average of 4 starts per season)

100 yard games - 11 (slightly more than 1.5 per season)

147+ yard games - 2 (1 every 3.5 seasons)

TDs - 30 (slightly more than 4 per season)

* Stewart had some good games with less than 147 yards, I wasn't trying to gerrymander the stats and reverse engineer from there, just looked at Hill, and his four best yardage games stood out, with the worst being 147 yards, so I used that as the second cut off (above 100 yards), just to head off "arbitrary cut off" complaints at the pass.

Stewart had 0 100 yard games in the three seasons from 2011-2013 (playing 16-9-6 games, respectively), he did have 1 100 (and an 87) yard receiving game in 2011. He had two 100 yard games (with one being 147+ yards) in 2014.

Differences in the two different sets of stats noted:

Stewart has missed a fair amount of time, between lower leg injuries, imo we shouldn't assume Hill's career will be plagued by this issue. If it is, obviously all bets are off on how similarly Hill's career unfolds to Stewart, and how much the former's numbers end up resembling the latter's.

Stewart has only started 28 of a possible 112 games (including the games he DNP). Unless Hill is injured, it is very possible he starts every game this season, and for the foreseeable future, unless his health, talent or status changes materially. Hill more than tripled Stewart's percentage of 100 yard games (based on seasonal average), and that was starting half the games as a rookie. If he starts 16 as a vet going forward, that number of 100 yard game frequency relative to Stewart could climb even higher. Basically Hill has twice as many 147+ yard games in one season as Stewart has had in seven seasons. Hill had 9 TDs starting half the season, again, that number could go up in the future if he starts more than half the games per season going forward. So he is scoring TDs more than twice as prolifically as Stewart, on a per season basis. Cam Newton has been stealing TDs from Stewart for the past four seasons (since 2011, during which he has 33 regular season rushing TDs - more than Stewart has had in his career, BTW). Not even counting DeAngelo Williams (who could be viewed as a Bernard counterpart), Mike Tolbert had another 12 combined TDs in 2012-2013, since coming to CAR. So that is a potential 45 rushing TDs taken away from the Stewart/Williams tandem in the past four seasons, which, needless to say, is a killer. Dalton doesn't pose anything remotely like the threat Newton did to Stewart, in the case of Hill (and Bernard), and I don't think CIN uses a FB near the goal line like CAR did Tolbert in 2012-2013.

In short, there are a lot of differences between Hill and Stewart, so there is a good possibility their careers could unfold differently, with the caveat and proviso (given Stewart's problems), health permitting. It isn't just all the games Stewart hasn't played or started due to chronic lower leg injuries, but all the other games he was less than 100%, maybe a lot less (0 100 yard games from 2011-2013, nearly half his career right there, possibly related to this). If Hill fails to have a 100 yard rushing game for three consecutive seasons of his career, in the prime years of 24-26, obviously he will have had a major malfunction, and that won't bode well for his production in those seasons, or his career averages, for that matter. But from this side of the divide across the unknown future, I see know cause to project such an uneven career for Hill as Stewart has had. I think there are a lot more differences between them (chronic injuries, Newton's TD vulturing, etc.), than the admitted similarity that Gio Bernard seems to resemble DeAngelo Williams - and that the two tandems have some pedigree similarities.

The good news is, Hill could do better than Stewart. Stewart had one good year (his second, 2009 - 1,133/10, never had 900 yards in any other of his seven seasons). Also, there is room for Bernard to do better than Williams. Williams had one great year (his third, 2008 - 1,515/18 rushing, and a good year in his fourth, 2009 - 1,117/7, also never had 900 yards in any other of his nine seasons).

 

[Nero]

Where is Hill being ranked in dynasty, between top 5-10?

Considering his age, who would be ahead of him? Charles, Lacy I suppose but who else? I guess Gurley and maybe Gordon. I wouldn't pick Lynch or Foster ahead of him as they have only 1 or 2 more years.

Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Currently in dynasty rankings here, Hill closer to top 5, and Abdullah closer to top 20. I'm not sure I would part with Hill for anybody other than Gurley (who I wouldn't expect to be able to get with just Hill) from this class, myself. Part of my rationale is he is coming off a season he only started half the games, and had four games of around 150 yards. I'm guessing something like 99%+ RBs to ever play in the NFL, don't do that in a CAREER, let alone their rookie season, so I weight that accomplishment heavily. I have a healthy respect for a RB that does that well, that often, that early. Someone posted some comps here, and he has few historical peers in this department.

But like you said, you weren't a believer before, and seemingly his rookie season didn't do enough for you to move the dial in this case, so what are you gonna do?

* No way to confirm this, but guessing in most leagues, though of course not yours, Hill could fetch Abdullah plus a lot more often than Abdullah could fetch Hill plus (or even a straight up trade).

 

[georg013]

Your assumption is correct. However, if I was suffering from rookie fever I could see going with Abdullah over Hill at this juncture of their respective careers. It makes no sense valuewise though.

 

[Tool]

Where is Hill being ranked in dynasty, between top 5-10?

Considering his age, who would be ahead of him? Charles, Lacy I suppose but who else? I guess Gurley and maybe Gordon. I wouldn't pick Lynch or Foster ahead of him as they have only 1 or 2 more years.

Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.

You know it's ok to change your mind, right?

 

[Louche]

Where is Hill being ranked in dynasty, between top 5-10?

Considering his age, who would be ahead of him? Charles, Lacy I suppose but who else? I guess Gurley and maybe Gordon. I wouldn't pick Lynch or Foster ahead of him as they have only 1 or 2 more years.

Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.

You know it's ok to change your mind, right?

Lol. This.

Getting too entrenched in your own opinions is one of the most dangerous things in FF. Fantasy football is about reacting and shaping your opinion based on all new information we learn about players, and we know a hell of a lot more about Hill now than what we did when he was coming out of LSU. I find that many owners, and many experts, tend to rely too much on their initial take on a player. We're not playing "who-was-the-most-right-about-his-talent-coming-out-of-college-and-was-able-to-stick-with-that-opinion-even-though-all-evidence-suggests-otherwise" football.

 

[ghostguy123]

I woulda thought HIll for Abdullah would be in the worst offer thread, not a deal someone actually turned down.

 

[Sabertooth]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

 

[mikmak8902]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

 

[fruity pebbles]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more. In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Really? Even though he had 50 carries, the first half of the season. Also, 27 catches isn't next to zero.

 

[georg013]

Will somebody please provide the link that states Abdullah is now the clear bellcow in Detroit. Thanks in advance.

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

Where is Hill being ranked in dynasty, between top 5-10?

Considering his age, who would be ahead of him? Charles, Lacy I suppose but who else? I guess Gurley and maybe Gordon. I wouldn't pick Lynch or Foster ahead of him as they have only 1 or 2 more years.

L Bell???

 

[spider321]

Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.

Big mistake.

 

[humpback]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

I'm not sure that he is "way too talented". I like him, but he's had a 4.0 and 4.1 ypc in his first two seasons. He's not going to be a guy who "only" plays on 3rd downs (very few RBs are), but he doesn't seem to be a guy who thrives on a heavy workload of running between the tackles either.

After Gio returned from injury last season, he averaged under 9 carries per game while Hill averaged nearly double at ~17.5. That seems to be as good of a guess as any at the split going forward, and based on last year that would give Hill ~280 carries. Seems like a reasonable projection, and it represents quite a bit more upside over the 222 carries he had last year.

 

[Bob Magaw]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I think of Abdullah as replacing Bush, who was in a time share, too. Likely he will be in some kind of rotation with Bell and Riddick, too. Of the few remaining feature RBs in the league, most are bigger than Abdullah (there is Charles, but he is the exception that proves the rule). If Bell and/or Riddick move on for whatever reason, they likely will be replaced by somebody else. This time last year, Sankey had a chance to be the guy, too, and maybe he does something with it in year two, but imo there is something to be said for Hill already having played at a high level. He has proven he is one of the most talented young RBs in the league. The Bernard specter or bogeyman made more sense to invoke BEFORE Hill decisively outplayed him.

Hill began the season as a back up, did better than Bernard, and finished as the starter, so starting more than half the games would be one way to improve.

I like Bernard, I have both in one league. I just like Hill more. Presented with stats like the below quote, what would you do as the HC/OC? I'd be strongly inclined to feed the ball to Hill 15+ carries per game.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9409

"Jeremy Hill averaged 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game in the seven contests where he handled 15-plus carries as a rookie.

Whereas Hill dominated in the feature back role, Gio Bernard was less effective on expanded rushing usage, managing a 4.12 YPC average and 0.7 TDs in his seven games with 14-plus carries. As beat writer Paul Dehner notes, Gio "excelled once shifted into a more situational, receiving role late in the season." Expect Hill to remain the Bengals' clear-lead running back in 2015." Feb 27 - 9:26 AM

 

[mikmak8902]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more. In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Really? Even though he had 50 carries, the first half of the season. Also, 27 catches isn't next to zero.

For the sake of accuracy, he had 74 carries in the first half of the season and Gio was out for 3 games in the 2nd half of the season. And yes, you are correct in saying that 27 catches is more than zero. I was scanning over his game splits and saw alot of 1 and 0 catch games. However, I see that 27 catch total being around his ceiling as well.

Last season, the Bengals had the 5th most rushes in the NFL and they also had only 503 pass attempts ... down 83 attempts from the previous season. I have to assume the dip in pass attempts is directly related to AJ Green missing 5 games.

Passing Attempts: 590(2010), 535(2011), 540(2012), 587(2013), 503(2014)

Rushing attempts: 428(2010), 455(2011), 430(2012), 481(2013), 492(2014)

So if we are assuming everyone stays healthy (which we have to when projecting stats), I see a bump in pass attempts back to the 550+ range. More pass attempts plays more into Gio's hands than Hill's. Also, if Gio is healthy (as well as hill), that's 3 more games where Gio cuts into Hill's carries.

Also, Cinci was tied for the 23rd hardest schedule by record last season. Easy schedules for teams that can run the ball generally equate to more rushing attempts.

In 2015, they are facing the 2nd hardest strength of schedule by last year's record.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25066031/2015-nfl-strength-of-schedule-steelers-at-no-1-falcons-at-no-32

They also will have the HARDEST fantasy schedule for RB's in the league this coming season.

http://fftoolbox.scout.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm

So the facts seem to stack up against Jeremy Hill improving upon his 2014 season:

- 2014 peak in team rushing attempts

- 2014 pass attempts plummeted

- 2014 AJ Green missed 5 games

- 2014 Gio Bernard missed 3 games

- 2014 Tyler Eifert missed almost the entire season

- 2015 2nd hardest schedule in the nfl

- 2015 #1 hardest fantasy schedule for RB's in the nfl

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

I'm not sure that he is "way too talented". I like him, but he's had a 4.0 and 4.1 ypc in his first two seasons. He's not going to be a guy who "only" plays on 3rd downs (very few RBs are), but he doesn't seem to be a guy who thrives on a heavy workload of running between the tackles either.

After Gio returned from injury last season, he averaged under 9 carries per game while Hill averaged nearly double at ~17.5. That seems to be as good of a guess as any at the split going forward, and based on last year that would give Hill ~280 carries. Seems like a reasonable projection, and it represents quite a bit more upside over the 222 carries he had last year.

The problem will be when/if Cincy gets behind in games and are playing catch up you will see a lot more Gio due to how dynamic he is as a pass catcher.

This situation is going to be annoying for the Hill owners that are looking for the 300 carry RB. There is going to be many weeks this thread gets bumped with people saying that Gio is getting far too many touches and Hill needs a bigger workload.

I think Cincy is going to use both guys and it will work for them. Hill will get the majority of rushing attempts for sure but Gio is still going to get 12-18 touches every week. Hill is a very good player and has a chance to be great, but people are underappreciating what Gio brings to an offense.

Gio had a 89 yard rushing TD last year, he also had a 22 yard receiving TD and 17 yard receiving td. In 5 of the 13 games he played he caught 4 or more passes. Barring injury he is going to catch 60 plus balls.

Hill is a work horse back and the better run between the tackles type. He obviously can bust some long runs himself, but Gio is a guy that will demand touches and brings you something different.

For the time being Hill can't be in the discussion with Lacy, Charles, Bell and company due to playing alongside a RB like Gio.

 

[mikmak8902]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I think of Abdullah as replacing Bush, who was in a time share, too. Likely he will be in some kind of rotation with Bell and Riddick, too. Of the few remaining feature RBs in the league, most are bigger than Abdullah (there is Charles, but he is the exception that proves the rule). If Bell and/or Riddick move on for whatever reason, they likely will be replaced by somebody else. This time last year, Sankey had a chance to be the guy, too, and maybe he does something with it in year two, but imo there is something to be said for Hill already having played at a high level. He has proven he is one of the most talented young RBs in the league. The Bernard specter or bogeyman made more sense to invoke BEFORE Hill decisively outplayed him.

Hill began the season as a back up, did better than Bernard, and finished as the starter, so starting more than half the games would be one way to improve.

I like Bernard, I have both in one league. I just like Hill more. Presented with stats like the below quote, what would you do as the HC? I'd be strongly inclined to feed the ball to Hill 15+ carries per game.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9409

"Jeremy Hill averaged 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game in the seven contests where he handled 15-plus carries as a rookie.

Whereas Hill dominated in the feature back role, Gio Bernard was less effective on expanded rushing usage, managing a 4.12 YPC average and 0.7 TDs in his seven games with 14-plus carries. As beat writer Paul Dehner notes, Gio "excelled once shifted into a more situational, receiving role late in the season." Expect Hill to remain the Bengals' clear-lead running back in 2015." Feb 27 - 9:26 AM

I agree that hill will be the lead back. I just think they won't have as many attempts this year which plays into Gio increasing his touches a bit and Hill probably keeping his touches around the same considering he will now be starting from game 1 but probably receive less touches per game as a starter than he did last season.

 

[jurb26]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I think of Abdullah as replacing Bush, who was in a time share, too. Likely he will be in some kind of rotation with Bell and Riddick, too. Of the few remaining feature RBs in the league, most are bigger than Abdullah (there is Charles, but he is the exception that proves the rule). If Bell and/or Riddick move on for whatever reason, they likely will be replaced by somebody else. This time last year, Sankey had a chance to be the guy, too, and maybe he does something with it in year two, but imo there is something to be said for Hill already having played at a high level. He has proven he is one of the most talented young RBs in the league. The Bernard specter or bogeyman made more sense to invoke BEFORE Hill decisively outplayed him.

Hill began the season as a back up, did better than Bernard, and finished as the starter, so starting more than half the games would be one way to improve.

I like Bernard, I have both in one league. I just like Hill more. Presented with stats like the below quote, what would you do as the HC? I'd be strongly inclined to feed the ball to Hill 15+ carries per game.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9409

"Jeremy Hill averaged 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game in the seven contests where he handled 15-plus carries as a rookie.

Whereas Hill dominated in the feature back role, Gio Bernard was less effective on expanded rushing usage, managing a 4.12 YPC average and 0.7 TDs in his seven games with 14-plus carries. As beat writer Paul Dehner notes, Gio "excelled once shifted into a more situational, receiving role late in the season." Expect Hill to remain the Bengals' clear-lead running back in 2015." Feb 27 - 9:26 AM

I agree that hill will be the lead back. I just think they won't have as many attempts this year which plays into Gio increasing his touches a bit and Hill probably keeping his touches around the same considering he will now be starting from game 1 but probably receive less touches per game as a starter than he did last season.

The increase in rushing was long predicted and stated by the coaching staff in Cincy once they added Hue. Green going down may have helped, but it's not the catalyst. Hue is.

 

[mikmak8902]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I think of Abdullah as replacing Bush, who was in a time share, too. Likely he will be in some kind of rotation with Bell and Riddick, too. Of the few remaining feature RBs in the league, most are bigger than Abdullah (there is Charles, but he is the exception that proves the rule). If Bell and/or Riddick move on for whatever reason, they likely will be replaced by somebody else. This time last year, Sankey had a chance to be the guy, too, and maybe he does something with it in year two, but imo there is something to be said for Hill already having played at a high level. He has proven he is one of the most talented young RBs in the league. The Bernard specter or bogeyman made more sense to invoke BEFORE Hill decisively outplayed him.

Hill began the season as a back up, did better than Bernard, and finished as the starter, so starting more than half the games would be one way to improve.

I like Bernard, I have both in one league. I just like Hill more. Presented with stats like the below quote, what would you do as the HC? I'd be strongly inclined to feed the ball to Hill 15+ carries per game.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9409

"Jeremy Hill averaged 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game in the seven contests where he handled 15-plus carries as a rookie.

Whereas Hill dominated in the feature back role, Gio Bernard was less effective on expanded rushing usage, managing a 4.12 YPC average and 0.7 TDs in his seven games with 14-plus carries. As beat writer Paul Dehner notes, Gio "excelled once shifted into a more situational, receiving role late in the season." Expect Hill to remain the Bengals' clear-lead running back in 2015." Feb 27 - 9:26 AM

I agree that hill will be the lead back. I just think they won't have as many attempts this year which plays into Gio increasing his touches a bit and Hill probably keeping his touches around the same considering he will now be starting from game 1 but probably receive less touches per game as a starter than he did last season.

The increase in rushing was long predicted and stated by the coaching staff in Cincy once they added Hue. Green going down may have helped, but it's not the catalyst. Hue is.

I guess we'll see. In my opinion, with a healthy AJ and Eifert along with the brutal fantasy (and real NFL) schedule, I don't see him getting the same touches or per carry production.

 

[humpback]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

I'm not sure that he is "way too talented". I like him, but he's had a 4.0 and 4.1 ypc in his first two seasons. He's not going to be a guy who "only" plays on 3rd downs (very few RBs are), but he doesn't seem to be a guy who thrives on a heavy workload of running between the tackles either.

After Gio returned from injury last season, he averaged under 9 carries per game while Hill averaged nearly double at ~17.5. That seems to be as good of a guess as any at the split going forward, and based on last year that would give Hill ~280 carries. Seems like a reasonable projection, and it represents quite a bit more upside over the 222 carries he had last year.

The problem will be when/if Cincy gets behind in games and are playing catch up you will see a lot more Gio due to how dynamic he is as a pass catcher.

This situation is going to be annoying for the Hill owners that are looking for the 300 carry RB. There is going to be many weeks this thread gets bumped with people saying that Gio is getting far too many touches and Hill needs a bigger workload.

I think Cincy is going to use both guys and it will work for them. Hill will get the majority of rushing attempts for sure but Gio is still going to get 12-18 touches every week. Hill is a very good player and has a chance to be great, but people are underappreciating what Gio brings to an offense.

Gio had a 89 yard rushing TD last year, he also had a 22 yard receiving TD and 17 yard receiving td. In 5 of the 13 games he played he caught 4 or more passes. Barring injury he is going to catch 60 plus balls.

Hill is a work horse back and the better run between the tackles type. He obviously can bust some long runs himself, but Gio is a guy that will demand touches and brings you something different.

For the time being Hill can't be in the discussion with Lacy, Charles, Bell and company due to playing alongside a RB like Gio.

You're only focusing on one side- what happens when Cincy get ahead in games and wants to grind out the win? Obviously when they are way behind in the 4th qtr, Gio is going to get more playing time, but I don't expect that to happen very often, do you?

No one is saying that Gio stinks and isn't going to have a role, however after he returned Gio averaged 13 touches per game vs. 19 for Hill. Why do you think that would change substantially this year? FTR I'm not putting him in the discussion with those other guys, but I do think he clearly has upside over last season, simply due to the fact that he was a rookie who didn't play much until the 2nd half of the season. I think it's more likely that they stick to the splits in the 2nd half than the 1st.