OBJ had an incredible, historical rookie year. I think comparing Hill to that is being a little over the top for effect, and that can make a point just fine.I dont think it was an exaggeration at all. The anti Hill shtick is stupid. Anyone who cant see Hills talent didnt watch football last year.
I like Gobots more than I like Transformers. If someone offers me a mint condition original Megatron for one of my Gobots, I will accept that just on the principle that the value of Megatron completely Dwarfs whatever Gobot I would be trading.I always take "my guys." Especially at RB. I can live with the results, no matter how it turns out. I think Abdullah will be better than Hill. It makes absolutely no sense to take what I perceive as a downgrade and then try and trade what I value less, when I already had what I wanted.I'm an Abdullah owner. I really like him. I can't think of any reason to prefer him straight up to Hill, who has already proven what he can do at only 22 years old, and has a more well-rounded skill-set. You were offered free money and you spit at it. Huge lost opportunity because you're blinded by "your guy" and being right about him rather than playing the percentages and taking the easy profit. I see it all the time in my leagues, it rarely works out.On one hand, I respect the balls. On the other, you make the hero call and turn down free value often enough and you'll be leaking value left and right with a roster full of "your guys" you were so sure of, many of which didn't pan out.I'll be waiting too.Rookie fever in full effect. Cant wait to revisit that rejection in a year.No kidding. No way should you have turned that offer down. Turning down a offer than would have given you a guy who led the NFL in rushing over the last 9 games of the 2014 season? Unreal.Big mistake.Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.
Right. The analogy was exaggerated, but it was a good analogy given the Hill's value dwarfs the other guy. Not to mention he has actually shown to be a really really good runner with a good all around skill set. The odds of this working out for him are just terrible.Obviously. It was an exaggeration, but it made the point effectively.Hill is not on a level with Odell Beckham.
Interesting ... I like both Hill and Ameer.I like Gobots more than I like Transformers. If someone offers me a mint condition original Megatron for one of my Gobots, I will accept that just on the principle that the value of Megatron completely Dwarfs whatever Gobot I would be trading.I always take "my guys." Especially at RB. I can live with the results, no matter how it turns out. I think Abdullah will be better than Hill. It makes absolutely no sense to take what I perceive as a downgrade and then try and trade what I value less, when I already had what I wanted.I'm an Abdullah owner. I really like him. I can't think of any reason to prefer him straight up to Hill, who has already proven what he can do at only 22 years old, and has a more well-rounded skill-set. You were offered free money and you spit at it. Huge lost opportunity because you're blinded by "your guy" and being right about him rather than playing the percentages and taking the easy profit. I see it all the time in my leagues, it rarely works out.On one hand, I respect the balls. On the other, you make the hero call and turn down free value often enough and you'll be leaking value left and right with a roster full of "your guys" you were so sure of, many of which didn't pan out.I'll be waiting too.Rookie fever in full effect. Cant wait to revisit that rejection in a year.No kidding. No way should you have turned that offer down. Turning down a offer than would have given you a guy who led the NFL in rushing over the last 9 games of the 2014 season? Unreal.Big mistake.Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.
Sometimes it doesn;t matter what you personally like when something this obvious slaps you in the face.
Jeremy HillHill was drafted in the second round last year, and conventional wisdom was that he'd be a change of pace to the talented lightning bug of Giovani Bernard. However, when Bernard was dogged with injuries, it was Hill who emerged as the breakout back. Heading into 2015, can Hill be trusted as a No. 1 fantasy running back? Here's what I learned on a deep film dive.
2014 IN REVIEW
After starting the season behind Bernard on the depth chart, Hill took his chance for the lead role and ran away with it to the tune of 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging five yards per carry. The LSU product was a force to be reckoned with from Week 9 on, notching four games with 147 yards or more and scoring six touchdowns over the final nine games. All this while averaging more yards per carry and rushing for more yardage than any other back in the NFL. That stretch helped him finish 10th at his position in fantasy scoring on the year.
ANALYSIS
It took two plays for me to see just how good Jeremy Hill could be. TWO! On the second rush attempt of his NFL career, he burst through the line for eight yards and seemed to be a half step away from taking it to the house. That's Hill in a nutshell. He has the vision, speed, and strength to pound defenses with several yard gains, but if he gets the space he's a threat to take it to the house any time he touches the football. He is blessed with a rare combination of size, speed instincts and skill. He has quick feet, soft hands and the power to move a pile. He's the real deal. Watching Hill get to the second level with a full head of steam is equivalent to watching a Katamari roll up unwitting bystanders for those of you who have played the PS2 classic "Katamari Damacy." Except when it comes to Hill, DBs and LBs are left in his wake or haplessly hanging from his jersey until he is finally dragged down.
2015 AND BEYOND
Most fantasy pundits have Hill pegged as an early second-round pick, and I think that's a bargain if you get him there. As I said on the latest episode of the NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast I would confidently take Hill in the first round. Yes, Bernard is there and will get his touches and catches out of the backfield, but the Bengals are at their best when Andy Dalton has less on his shoulders, which means Hill will be getting plenty of work. He only had 222 carries last year, and I think he could hit that by Week 10 in 2015. For further proof, read Chris Wesseling's excellent breakdown of the Bengals' sneaky good offense. Jeremy Hill is joining the elite back lounge this season. Whether or not you want to be with him for his inaugural season is up to you.
2015 DRAFT VALUE
Surge: I'd be confident taking Hill as soon as the tried-and-true elite backs are off the board in the first-round. His floor is his production from 2014, and his ceiling is sky-high.
Cy-Kill is no Megatron. But Scooter was way cooler than Bumblebee.I like Gobots more than I like Transformers. If someone offers me a mint condition original Megatron for one of my Gobots, I will accept that just on the principle that the value of Megatron completely Dwarfs whatever Gobot I would be trading.I always take "my guys." Especially at RB. I can live with the results, no matter how it turns out. I think Abdullah will be better than Hill. It makes absolutely no sense to take what I perceive as a downgrade and then try and trade what I value less, when I already had what I wanted.I'm an Abdullah owner. I really like him. I can't think of any reason to prefer him straight up to Hill, who has already proven what he can do at only 22 years old, and has a more well-rounded skill-set. You were offered free money and you spit at it. Huge lost opportunity because you're blinded by "your guy" and being right about him rather than playing the percentages and taking the easy profit. I see it all the time in my leagues, it rarely works out.On one hand, I respect the balls. On the other, you make the hero call and turn down free value often enough and you'll be leaking value left and right with a roster full of "your guys" you were so sure of, many of which didn't pan out.I'll be waiting too.Rookie fever in full effect. Cant wait to revisit that rejection in a year.No kidding. No way should you have turned that offer down. Turning down a offer than would have given you a guy who led the NFL in rushing over the last 9 games of the 2014 season? Unreal.Big mistake.Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.
Sometimes it doesn;t matter what you personally like when something this obvious slaps you in the face.
Jackson has never had a RB with more than 256 carries in any season when he's been an NFL OC or HC.Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds
Arguably he's never had an offense this good either. There's a first for everything, right?Jackson has never had a RB with more than 256 carries in any season when he's been an NFL OC or HC.Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds
Everyone always focuses on the season totals rather than the per game totals. The carries that the primary RB gets is the important stat.Jackson has never had a RB with more than 256 carries in any season when he's been an NFL OC or HC.Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds
This is getting into Soulfly territory now.Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
Lol, true dat.This is getting into Soulfly territory now.Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
For RB's i would expect their productivity to increase their second year as they get more comfortable w/ pass protection. I'd need to be shown evidence of a sophomore slump to believe in it.Rhythmdoctor said:Lol, true dat.Sabertooth said:This is getting into Soulfly territory now.georg013 said:Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
Regarding georg013's post - my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist. I would love to know how many times a 2nd year player led the league for his position. I'm sure it has happened. In fact Marino comes to mind initially. Maybe Jerry Rice. Those are 2 HOFers, I'm sure there are others but there can't be that many. Would love to know the answer to that.
I like Hill a lot. I love him in dynasty. I don't think probability is on your side predicting 2nd year players to be #1 at their position, however, or even top 5 for that matter. I just don't think history favors that call.
Actually, they're quite comparable. I regret not drafting both in my main dynasty league last year.Obviously. It was an exaggeration, but it made the point effectively.Hill is not on a level with Odell Beckham.
The last sophomore RB to lead the league in fantasy points (PPR) was Le'Veon Bell. Before him it was Arian Foster. Before that, you have to go all the way back to CJ2K. Here's a list of notable sophomore RBs from the past 15 years.Rhythmdoctor said:Lol, true dat.Sabertooth said:This is getting into Soulfly territory now.georg013 said:Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
Regarding georg013's post - my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist. I would love to know how many times a 2nd year player led the league for his position. I'm sure it has happened. In fact Marino comes to mind initially. Maybe Jerry Rice. Those are 2 HOFers, I'm sure there are others but there can't be that many. Would love to know the answer to that.
I like Hill a lot. I love him in dynasty. I don't think probability is on your side predicting 2nd year players to be #1 at their position, however, or even top 5 for that matter. I just don't think history favors that call.
"All the way back" to the year before? CJ2K was 2009 and Foster was 2010.The last sophomore RB to lead the league in fantasy points (PPR) was Le'Veon Bell. Before him it was Arian Foster. Before that, you have to go all the way back to CJ2K. Here's a list of notable sophomore RBs from the past 15 years.
But before that it was LT in 2002. So 4/13. But to your point, maybe RBs dont have the same concerns?"All the way back" to the year before? CJ2K was 2009 and Foster was 2010.So out of the last 6 seasons, 3 of them were lead by sophomore RBs.The last sophomore RB to lead the league in fantasy points (PPR) was Le'Veon Bell. Before him it was Arian Foster. Before that, you have to go all the way back to CJ2K. Here's a list of notable sophomore RBs from the past 15 years.
50% is more than enough to say that 2nd year running backs actually have a history of dominating, not slumping.
No, it doesn't.Rhythmdoctor said:my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.No, it doesn't.Rhythmdoctor said:my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
If OBJ and/or Evans perform worse this year it will be due to statistical regressions (there's nowhere to go but down for Beckham and Evans had an unsustainable TD to Receptions rate) not because of a "sophomore slump".It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.No, it doesn't.Rhythmdoctor said:my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
Appreciate the smart ### jab with your Madden curse comment.If OBJ and/or Evans perform worse this year it will be due to statistical regressions (there's nowhere to go but down for Beckham and Evans had an unsustainable TD to Receptions rate) not because of a "sophomore slump".It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.No, it doesn't.Rhythmdoctor said:my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
There's no Madden Curse either by the way.
Well many people discuss the Madden Curse as well. There's always threads about it. I was being a little bit of a smart ### though. Apologies.Appreciate the smart ### jab with your Madden curse comment.If OBJ and/or Evans perform worse this year it will be due to statistical regressions (there's nowhere to go but down for Beckham and Evans had an unsustainable TD to Receptions rate) not because of a "sophomore slump".It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.No, it doesn't.Rhythmdoctor said:my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
There's no Madden Curse either by the way.
Anyways, I came in to agree with you here. The sophmore slump really falls under the umbrella of statistical regression.
It does... see "Rhythmdoctor - sophomore year in high school" major slump...No, it doesn't.my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
I don't think so, personally. For one, I don't think Hyde is anywhere near as good as Hill. And second, I don't think Hyde is in a great situation, other than his lack of competition. They won't be playing with a lead as often, their defense isn't as good, their OL isn't as good. I mean, you might be looking at more of a Jags RB1 situation than the Harbaugh's 49ers RB1 situation everyone is stuck on.Count me in on the Hill bandwagon. Without Gio last year, he was special. With Gio, he's still going to have a few inconsistencies but the TDs should make up for it.
However......... it will be somewhat hard to pull the trigger on Hill on Fanduel or DFS, especially early in the season, until either Cinci has a really soft matchup, or Gio misses some time. Short of that, Hill's season-long numbers should be great, but game to game the time-share just kinda sucks.
Could it be that Hyde is actually in a better spot to perform in 2015 than Hill, assuming a healthy Gio?
That's true... the new Bengals are more like the old 49ers than the new 49ers.I don't think so, personally. For one, I don't think Hyde is anywhere near as good as Hill. And second, I don't think Hyde is in a great situation, other than his lack of competition. They won't be playing with a lead as often, their defense isn't as good, their OL isn't as good. I mean, you might be looking at more of a Jags RB1 situation than the Harbaugh's 49ers RB1 situation everyone is stuck on.Count me in on the Hill bandwagon. Without Gio last year, he was special. With Gio, he's still going to have a few inconsistencies but the TDs should make up for it.
However......... it will be somewhat hard to pull the trigger on Hill on Fanduel or DFS, especially early in the season, until either Cinci has a really soft matchup, or Gio misses some time. Short of that, Hill's season-long numbers should be great, but game to game the time-share just kinda sucks.
Could it be that Hyde is actually in a better spot to perform in 2015 than Hill, assuming a healthy Gio?
It's good to see the OC remaining realistic."The sky's the limit for him and Gio," Jackson said.
Paul Kuharsky @PaulKuharskyNFL 15m15 minutes ago
.@gregcosell on @Midday180: #Bengals finally found what their offense should be last year. Starts with Hill as foundational RB.
Agree with that. I targeted Gio heavily last year, and picked up Hill as insurance, but it's plain as day that Hill should be the primary back with Gio working in as an exceptional COP, 3rd down back and in 2-RB formations.Paul Kuharsky @PaulKuharskyNFL 15m15 minutes ago
.@gregcosell on @Midday180: #Bengals finally found what their offense should be last year. Starts with Hill as foundational RB.
His team has CIN teammates Bernard, Eifert, the Bengals D/ST, as well as former LSU WR teammates OBJ and Landry.Double-check your fantasy league -- you may be playing Jeremy Hill:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/179619/double-check-your-fantasy-league-you-may-be-playing-jeremy-hill
But not Andy Dalton- the kid ain't dumbHis team has CIN teammates Bernard, Eifert, the Bengals D/ST, as well as former LSU WR teammates OBJ and Landry.Homer!Double-check your fantasy league -- you may be playing Jeremy Hill:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/179619/double-check-your-fantasy-league-you-may-be-playing-jeremy-hill