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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)

I dont think it was an exaggeration at all. The anti Hill shtick is stupid. Anyone who cant see Hills talent didnt watch football last year.

 
ratbast said:
I dont think it was an exaggeration at all. The anti Hill shtick is stupid. Anyone who cant see Hills talent didnt watch football last year.
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OBJ had an incredible, historical rookie year. I think comparing Hill to that is being a little over the top for effect, and that can make a point just fine.

 
Nero said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Nero said:
georg013 said:
dcgangstas said:
spider321 said:
Nero said:
Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.
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Big mistake.
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No kidding. No way should you have turned that offer down. Turning down a offer than would have given you a guy who led the NFL in rushing over the last 9 games of the 2014 season? Unreal.
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Rookie fever in full effect. Cant wait to revisit that rejection in a year.
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I'll be waiting too.
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I'm an Abdullah owner. I really like him. I can't think of any reason to prefer him straight up to Hill, who has already proven what he can do at only 22 years old, and has a more well-rounded skill-set. You were offered free money and you spit at it. Huge lost opportunity because you're blinded by "your guy" and being right about him rather than playing the percentages and taking the easy profit. I see it all the time in my leagues, it rarely works out.On one hand, I respect the balls. On the other, you make the hero call and turn down free value often enough and you'll be leaking value left and right with a roster full of "your guys" you were so sure of, many of which didn't pan out.
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I always take "my guys." Especially at RB. I can live with the results, no matter how it turns out. I think Abdullah will be better than Hill. It makes absolutely no sense to take what I perceive as a downgrade and then try and trade what I value less, when I already had what I wanted.
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I like Gobots more than I like Transformers. If someone offers me a mint condition original Megatron for one of my Gobots, I will accept that just on the principle that the value of Megatron completely Dwarfs whatever Gobot I would be trading.

Sometimes it doesn;t matter what you personally like when something this obvious slaps you in the face.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
Hill is not on a level with Odell Beckham.
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Obviously. It was an exaggeration, but it made the point effectively.
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Right. The analogy was exaggerated, but it was a good analogy given the Hill's value dwarfs the other guy. Not to mention he has actually shown to be a really really good runner with a good all around skill set. The odds of this working out for him are just terrible.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Nero said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Nero said:
georg013 said:
dcgangstas said:
spider321 said:
Nero said:
Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.
Click to expand...
Big mistake.
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No kidding. No way should you have turned that offer down. Turning down a offer than would have given you a guy who led the NFL in rushing over the last 9 games of the 2014 season? Unreal.
Click to expand...
Rookie fever in full effect. Cant wait to revisit that rejection in a year.
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I'll be waiting too.
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I'm an Abdullah owner. I really like him. I can't think of any reason to prefer him straight up to Hill, who has already proven what he can do at only 22 years old, and has a more well-rounded skill-set. You were offered free money and you spit at it. Huge lost opportunity because you're blinded by "your guy" and being right about him rather than playing the percentages and taking the easy profit. I see it all the time in my leagues, it rarely works out.On one hand, I respect the balls. On the other, you make the hero call and turn down free value often enough and you'll be leaking value left and right with a roster full of "your guys" you were so sure of, many of which didn't pan out.
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I always take "my guys." Especially at RB. I can live with the results, no matter how it turns out. I think Abdullah will be better than Hill. It makes absolutely no sense to take what I perceive as a downgrade and then try and trade what I value less, when I already had what I wanted.
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I like Gobots more than I like Transformers. If someone offers me a mint condition original Megatron for one of my Gobots, I will accept that just on the principle that the value of Megatron completely Dwarfs whatever Gobot I would be trading.

Sometimes it doesn;t matter what you personally like when something this obvious slaps you in the face.
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Interesting ... I like both Hill and Ameer.

I am really wondering how this will play out, especially in ppr leagues. I think Hill will be a bellcow type and has shown he can do it in the NFL. Ameer, however, is a special back imho. I think this deal is very close if Ameer turns into an every down back (i.e., 65-70% of the RB touches) over this year or next (especially in ppr leagues).

With that said, if I was offered Hill for Ameer ... I would accept that deal (today).

 
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Yes the deal is close IF you're right that he is special and IF he takes on that big workload. I guess that's the point though.

 
Breakout or bust? Examining the sophomore RBs

Excerpt:

Jeremy HillHill was drafted in the second round last year, and conventional wisdom was that he'd be a change of pace to the talented lightning bug of Giovani Bernard. However, when Bernard was dogged with injuries, it was Hill who emerged as the breakout back. Heading into 2015, can Hill be trusted as a No. 1 fantasy running back? Here's what I learned on a deep film dive.

2014 IN REVIEW

After starting the season behind Bernard on the depth chart, Hill took his chance for the lead role and ran away with it to the tune of 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging five yards per carry. The LSU product was a force to be reckoned with from Week 9 on, notching four games with 147 yards or more and scoring six touchdowns over the final nine games. All this while averaging more yards per carry and rushing for more yardage than any other back in the NFL. That stretch helped him finish 10th at his position in fantasy scoring on the year.

ANALYSIS

It took two plays for me to see just how good Jeremy Hill could be. TWO! On the second rush attempt of his NFL career, he burst through the line for eight yards and seemed to be a half step away from taking it to the house. That's Hill in a nutshell. He has the vision, speed, and strength to pound defenses with several yard gains, but if he gets the space he's a threat to take it to the house any time he touches the football. He is blessed with a rare combination of size, speed instincts and skill. He has quick feet, soft hands and the power to move a pile. He's the real deal. Watching Hill get to the second level with a full head of steam is equivalent to watching a Katamari roll up unwitting bystanders for those of you who have played the PS2 classic "Katamari Damacy." Except when it comes to Hill, DBs and LBs are left in his wake or haplessly hanging from his jersey until he is finally dragged down.

2015 AND BEYOND

Most fantasy pundits have Hill pegged as an early second-round pick, and I think that's a bargain if you get him there. As I said on the latest episode of the NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast I would confidently take Hill in the first round. Yes, Bernard is there and will get his touches and catches out of the backfield, but the Bengals are at their best when Andy Dalton has less on his shoulders, which means Hill will be getting plenty of work. He only had 222 carries last year, and I think he could hit that by Week 10 in 2015. For further proof, read Chris Wesseling's excellent breakdown of the Bengals' sneaky good offense. Jeremy Hill is joining the elite back lounge this season. Whether or not you want to be with him for his inaugural season is up to you.

2015 DRAFT VALUE

Surge: I'd be confident taking Hill as soon as the tried-and-true elite backs are off the board in the first-round. His floor is his production from 2014, and his ceiling is sky-high.
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Doesn't sound too worried about a decrease in production or Gio Bernard. Hmmm. That raises questions.... I kid. I kid.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Nero said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Nero said:
georg013 said:
dcgangstas said:
spider321 said:
Nero said:
Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.
Click to expand...
Big mistake.
Click to expand...
No kidding. No way should you have turned that offer down. Turning down a offer than would have given you a guy who led the NFL in rushing over the last 9 games of the 2014 season? Unreal.
Click to expand...
Rookie fever in full effect. Cant wait to revisit that rejection in a year.
Click to expand...
I'll be waiting too.
Click to expand...
I'm an Abdullah owner. I really like him. I can't think of any reason to prefer him straight up to Hill, who has already proven what he can do at only 22 years old, and has a more well-rounded skill-set. You were offered free money and you spit at it. Huge lost opportunity because you're blinded by "your guy" and being right about him rather than playing the percentages and taking the easy profit. I see it all the time in my leagues, it rarely works out.On one hand, I respect the balls. On the other, you make the hero call and turn down free value often enough and you'll be leaking value left and right with a roster full of "your guys" you were so sure of, many of which didn't pan out.
Click to expand...
I always take "my guys." Especially at RB. I can live with the results, no matter how it turns out. I think Abdullah will be better than Hill. It makes absolutely no sense to take what I perceive as a downgrade and then try and trade what I value less, when I already had what I wanted.
Click to expand...
I like Gobots more than I like Transformers. If someone offers me a mint condition original Megatron for one of my Gobots, I will accept that just on the principle that the value of Megatron completely Dwarfs whatever Gobot I would be trading.

Sometimes it doesn;t matter what you personally like when something this obvious slaps you in the face.
Click to expand...
Cy-Kill is no Megatron. But Scooter was way cooler than Bumblebee.

 
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Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds

 
Love Hill's talent but Jackson won't ride him as much as everyone thinks. 250 would best case scenario IMO from what I've noticed about Jackson's usage of the RB committee. Hill's real value won't come from a massive bump in usage. It'll basically be from him seeing more work with the 1s during training camp, understanding the system better, and if he's improving on his conditioning.

I don't know what his weight is at but if he dropped a just a few pounds for the sake of a tiny bit more shiftiness and speed I think we'll see him crush his stats from last year across the board. Too bad for that brutal run schedule though...

 
hotboyz said:
Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds
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Jackson has never had a RB with more than 256 carries in any season when he's been an NFL OC or HC.

 
Bayhawks said:
hotboyz said:
Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds
Click to expand...
Jackson has never had a RB with more than 256 carries in any season when he's been an NFL OC or HC.
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Arguably he's never had an offense this good either. There's a first for everything, right?

Anyway, I think 250 is a good estimate, but I like Hill's talent enough that his long runs/TDs will place him among the top 10 RBs.

 
By the time it is all said and done and Hill proves Gio doesn't significantly affect his beast status, Hill and Lacy will be on the same level. And I own Lacy. And Hill.

 
Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.

 
Bayhawks said:
hotboyz said:
Everybody that's worried about Hills usage gotta remember Hue Jackson his off coordinator he likes to pound the ball. I got Hill at about 280 carries 4.8 yds per carry1344 yds 35 rec 280 yds 12tds
Click to expand...
Jackson has never had a RB with more than 256 carries in any season when he's been an NFL OC or HC.
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Everyone always focuses on the season totals rather than the per game totals. The carries that the primary RB gets is the important stat.

In 2010, McFadden had 223 carries in the 13 games he played. In the other 3 games, Bush had 71 carries. So the primary RB had 294 carries, or about 70% of the RB carries.

In 2011, when Jackson was the head coach, McFadden had 111 carries through week 6. He got hurt early in week 7 and Bush had 213 carries the rest of the year. Again, the primary RB got 324 carries, or about 83% of the RB carries.

Last year, Bernard had 109 carries up until he got hurt. The remainder of the season, when Hill was the primary RB, he got 172 carries. So again, the primary RB got 281 carries, or about 68% of the RB carries.

Jackson isn't a guy who uses and evenly distributed RBBC. He likes a primary RB. If you look at the history of RB use under Marvin Lewis, you'll see it's even more skewed towards a primary RB getting a majority of the carries. It's not inconceivable to think that Hill will get 70-75% of the RB carries this year.

 
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Sabertooth said:
georg013 said:
Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
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This is getting into Soulfly territory now.
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Lol, true dat.

Regarding georg013's post - my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist. I would love to know how many times a 2nd year player led the league for his position. I'm sure it has happened. In fact Marino comes to mind initially. Maybe Jerry Rice. Those are 2 HOFers, I'm sure there are others but there can't be that many. Would love to know the answer to that.

I like Hill a lot. I love him in dynasty. I don't think probability is on your side predicting 2nd year players to be #1 at their position, however, or even top 5 for that matter. I just don't think history favors that call.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Sabertooth said:
georg013 said:
Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
Click to expand...
This is getting into Soulfly territory now.
Click to expand...
Lol, true dat.

Regarding georg013's post - my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist. I would love to know how many times a 2nd year player led the league for his position. I'm sure it has happened. In fact Marino comes to mind initially. Maybe Jerry Rice. Those are 2 HOFers, I'm sure there are others but there can't be that many. Would love to know the answer to that.

I like Hill a lot. I love him in dynasty. I don't think probability is on your side predicting 2nd year players to be #1 at their position, however, or even top 5 for that matter. I just don't think history favors that call.
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For RB's i would expect their productivity to increase their second year as they get more comfortable w/ pass protection. I'd need to be shown evidence of a sophomore slump to believe in it.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Sabertooth said:
georg013 said:
Where you at Saber????! Going on record! Jeremy Hill will finish as the top RB in all of fantasy football next season. And he won't need 300 carries to do it!!! Lol.
Click to expand...
This is getting into Soulfly territory now.
Click to expand...
Lol, true dat.

Regarding georg013's post - my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist. I would love to know how many times a 2nd year player led the league for his position. I'm sure it has happened. In fact Marino comes to mind initially. Maybe Jerry Rice. Those are 2 HOFers, I'm sure there are others but there can't be that many. Would love to know the answer to that.

I like Hill a lot. I love him in dynasty. I don't think probability is on your side predicting 2nd year players to be #1 at their position, however, or even top 5 for that matter. I just don't think history favors that call.
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The last sophomore RB to lead the league in fantasy points (PPR) was Le'Veon Bell. Before him it was Arian Foster. Before that, you have to go all the way back to CJ2K. Here's a list of notable sophomore RBs from the past 15 years.

 
According to this study I put together the second season was the third best performing season for a RB career on average with 31.2 VBD. The third season was the best of the RB careers with 33 VBD, The sixth season was slightly better than the second with 31.3 VBD.

 
ZWK said:
The last sophomore RB to lead the league in fantasy points (PPR) was Le'Veon Bell. Before him it was Arian Foster. Before that, you have to go all the way back to CJ2K. Here's a list of notable sophomore RBs from the past 15 years.
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"All the way back" to the year before? CJ2K was 2009 and Foster was 2010.

So out of the last 6 seasons, 3 of them were lead by sophomore RBs.

50% is more than enough to say that 2nd year running backs actually have a history of dominating, not slumping.

 
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LittlePhatty said:
ZWK said:
The last sophomore RB to lead the league in fantasy points (PPR) was Le'Veon Bell. Before him it was Arian Foster. Before that, you have to go all the way back to CJ2K. Here's a list of notable sophomore RBs from the past 15 years.
Click to expand...
"All the way back" to the year before? CJ2K was 2009 and Foster was 2010.So out of the last 6 seasons, 3 of them were lead by sophomore RBs.

50% is more than enough to say that 2nd year running backs actually have a history of dominating, not slumping.
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But before that it was LT in 2002. So 4/13. But to your point, maybe RBs dont have the same concerns?
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't.
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It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.
 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't.
Click to expand...
It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.
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If OBJ and/or Evans perform worse this year it will be due to statistical regressions (there's nowhere to go but down for Beckham and Evans had an unsustainable TD to Receptions rate) not because of a "sophomore slump".

There's no Madden Curse either by the way.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't.
Click to expand...
It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.
Click to expand...
If OBJ and/or Evans perform worse this year it will be due to statistical regressions (there's nowhere to go but down for Beckham and Evans had an unsustainable TD to Receptions rate) not because of a "sophomore slump".

There's no Madden Curse either by the way.
Click to expand...
Appreciate the smart ### jab with your Madden curse comment.

Anyways, I came in to agree with you here. The sophmore slump really falls under the umbrella of statistical regression.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
my experience in FF has taught me that there is such thing as a sophomore slump. I don't have the numbers to back it, but historically, it does exist.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't.
Click to expand...
It sure does. The rookie had to have a stellar year. So Evans, OBJ.... I expect them to perform worse this season. If a rookie had an avg year then it wouldn't apply.
Click to expand...
If OBJ and/or Evans perform worse this year it will be due to statistical regressions (there's nowhere to go but down for Beckham and Evans had an unsustainable TD to Receptions rate) not because of a "sophomore slump".

There's no Madden Curse either by the way.
Click to expand...
Appreciate the smart ### jab with your Madden curse comment.

Anyways, I came in to agree with you here. The sophmore slump really falls under the umbrella of statistical regression.
Click to expand...
Well many people discuss the Madden Curse as well. There's always threads about it. I was being a little bit of a smart ### though. Apologies.

 
VERY excited about J-Hill this season!!! This kid is going to be special. Love the work ethic and determination. Hue Jackson is the perfect mentor. He's not happy with last season?! Are you kidding me? Love it.

 
Count me in on the Hill bandwagon. Without Gio last year, he was special. With Gio, he's still going to have a few inconsistencies but the TDs should make up for it.

However......... it will be somewhat hard to pull the trigger on Hill on Fanduel or DFS, especially early in the season, until either Cinci has a really soft matchup, or Gio misses some time. Short of that, Hill's season-long numbers should be great, but game to game the time-share just kinda sucks.

Could it be that Hyde is actually in a better spot to perform in 2015 than Hill, assuming a healthy Gio?

 
karmarooster said:
Count me in on the Hill bandwagon. Without Gio last year, he was special. With Gio, he's still going to have a few inconsistencies but the TDs should make up for it.

However......... it will be somewhat hard to pull the trigger on Hill on Fanduel or DFS, especially early in the season, until either Cinci has a really soft matchup, or Gio misses some time. Short of that, Hill's season-long numbers should be great, but game to game the time-share just kinda sucks.

Could it be that Hyde is actually in a better spot to perform in 2015 than Hill, assuming a healthy Gio?
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I don't think so, personally. For one, I don't think Hyde is anywhere near as good as Hill. And second, I don't think Hyde is in a great situation, other than his lack of competition. They won't be playing with a lead as often, their defense isn't as good, their OL isn't as good. I mean, you might be looking at more of a Jags RB1 situation than the Harbaugh's 49ers RB1 situation everyone is stuck on.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
karmarooster said:
Count me in on the Hill bandwagon. Without Gio last year, he was special. With Gio, he's still going to have a few inconsistencies but the TDs should make up for it.

However......... it will be somewhat hard to pull the trigger on Hill on Fanduel or DFS, especially early in the season, until either Cinci has a really soft matchup, or Gio misses some time. Short of that, Hill's season-long numbers should be great, but game to game the time-share just kinda sucks.

Could it be that Hyde is actually in a better spot to perform in 2015 than Hill, assuming a healthy Gio?
Click to expand...
I don't think so, personally. For one, I don't think Hyde is anywhere near as good as Hill. And second, I don't think Hyde is in a great situation, other than his lack of competition. They won't be playing with a lead as often, their defense isn't as good, their OL isn't as good. I mean, you might be looking at more of a Jags RB1 situation than the Harbaugh's 49ers RB1 situation everyone is stuck on.
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That's true... the new Bengals are more like the old 49ers than the new 49ers.

 
Jeremy Hill fun fact from Fantasy Index:

Only three rookies in the past 40 years ran for more yards while averaging more yards per carry - Barry Sanders, Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson (pretty sure they all started more games).

 
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NFL Network stat during CIN coverage today.

Most Rush YPG

Weeks 9-17, 2014 Season

Jeremy Hill - 103.2

DeMarco Murray - 98.9

Marshawn Lynch - 91.6

LeSean McCoy - 90.4

Eddie Lacy - 88.9

 
For those people still worried about Hill's carries going "down", I will just leave this here for you.

The Cincinnati Enquirer confirms Gio Bernard "won't have near as many touches" as Jeremy Hill this season.

Hill is a bellcow back with three-down tools and the best pass blocker on the Bengals. Bernard could mix in more during games where the Bengals fall behind on the scoreboard, but this is a relatively high-powered offense and the defense is likely to be much improved in DC Paul Guenther's second year. We don't anticipate the Bengals playing from behind often. In all likelihood, Gio will have a difficult time living up to his fourth-/fifth-round ADP.


http://www.rotoballer.com/2015-fantasy-football-sleeper-running-back-undervalued-jeremy-hill/265540
 
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I actually read this article. It is typical off-season piece. The guy has no access to team content, but has strong FF beliefs. As a result, you see no quotes, no insider knowledge, lots of number manipulations and extrapolations, all leading to confident declarations about this or that player's future production. He could easily have written "Bernard will steal half the touches and bag a ton of receptions" and it would be just as justified and insightful. The part I found entertaining was when he chooses to compare at random the last three regular season games of 2013 with 2014. Surely, a lot of RB FF production depends a which defense you are running against and how the game script turns out?? I can read stuff like this in the FBG threads any day.

What's with Rotoworld pimping the Bengals? Their DC didn't show anything dramatically promising in his very first career year as a DC. To conclude that their defense will be much improved seems quite ambitious. And a high-powered offense, really? With Andy Dalton at the helm? It wasn't very high-powered last time around - what changes now? I am off to check the over-under on wins - there may be some coin to make here if more people buy that stuff!

 
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