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John Brown Hype Train- Not as bad of reach as I thought (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter loose circuits
- Start date
steveski
Footballguy
Pretty surprised to see the talk about him is keeping up. Like that article says, usually when the pads come on, those small school guys that were getting all the praise sink back down the depth chart. I think it's really starting to look like this guy is going to amount to something. I have to say his situation is almost perfect. He's got 2 big great WR's to eat up all the coverage. Ginn is the only guy ahead of him in his role and we all know that won't last if Brown has any talent at all. Palmer is competent enough to get him the ball. Looking forward to seeing what he can do this weekend.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I hope so.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think he's the only player I have on both my dynasty teams...all in
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
I'd say he belongs 
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Did he make a play?
steveski
Footballguy
Not watching but he has 4/65 receiving right before the half. I know it's preseason but having twice as many catches as anybody else on your team is never a bad thing.
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
Plays.
2 catches each for ~25 yards (1 from Palmer), drew a ~40 yard DPI penalty. And likely had a TD if Stanton wasn't late on the throw.
If his name was Brandin Cooks, people in this forum would be pissing themselves. The guy has gotten open all game long. He's played the whole 1st half.
2 catches each for ~25 yards (1 from Palmer), drew a ~40 yard DPI penalty. And likely had a TD if Stanton wasn't late on the throw.
If his name was Brandin Cooks, people in this forum would be pissing themselves. The guy has gotten open all game long. He's played the whole 1st half.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Nice. This was a guy I didn't draft but picked up when I saw this thread in two leagues. Love guys like this who do it on merit instead of pedigree.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I hope this guys hammy tightens up until regular season.
Heatman
Footballguy
I think it's too late, he looks awesome. Glad to have him in three of my four drafts so far. I was hoping to get him in the only one I have left but I'll have to use at least a 2nd rounder to get him I think.
loose circuits
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Although I do have to say I question his ability to get enough action to be more than a backup WR on my fantasy team for a while. I just don't see Carson Palmer being good enough to feed three wide receivers and make them all have fantasy relevance.
lod01
Footballguy
As a dynasty owner I'm even more concerned about what happens after Palmer. The drafted a garbage QB this year.
Yenrub
Footballguy
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
loose circuits
Footballguy
like I said at the beginning, Fitz Is due an astronomical amount of dinero and could be cut, but he's the face of the franchise so who knows. Arians offense can support 3 WR's because they don't use the TE. Back in the day, Palmer also supported TJ, 85, and Chris Henry so there is that...
Having said all that, you may be right and he's a long term investment, but that's ok
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chriswilson667
Footballguy
It’s pathetic that it’s been so long since I’ve been on this forum I no longer have access to the email that I used to originally sign-on with… Even though I myself haven’t played fantasy football for around 10 years, I’ve been a regular visitor to the News Blogger and the past couple of year’s two of my sons (now 12 & 14) have been getting into fantasy football.
So for me to create an account to make a single post should tell you something. I saw this thread and had to comment.
I am a graduate of Pittsburg State University and our family regularly attends Gorilla football games. Yes, even at our level, every few years we’ll see a kid on one of the D2 teams who has slipped through the cracks of college football and is clearly special (Rod Smith of Missouri Southern/Denver Broncos and Joique Bell of Wayne State/Detroit Lions come to mind). If you’re lucky enough, as we have been at Pittsburg State, every 8 to 10 years you’ll get a guy who is head and shoulders above everyone else, even the All Americans. For us it was Ronnie West and Ronald Moore in the early 90’s (both Harlon Hill winners – the D2 MVP) and Aaron McConnell and Germaine Race in the early 2000’s (Race should have been a Harlon Hill winner, but I digress).
When John Brown first took the field for Pittsburg State none of the fans had a clue who he was. He was just another transfer from Florida who at spent time at an area community college. By the time he left everyone was a fan of our #5. He’s a good kid who clearly enjoys playing the game and if I had to describe his playing style in one word it would be “electric” (I wrote this BEFORE the NFL Facebook comment!) – it is what he was meant to do and for him to get a shot in the NFL is awesome.
Some things to keep in mind:
-1- Speed kills at every level. It does not matter what level of play you are in if the defender simply cannot keep up. He isn’t just fast, he’s a smooth runner and makes it look effortless. Think flag football. If somebody gets a hold of his jersey, he’s going down. IF they get a hold of his jersey.
-2- Brown’s numbers were nowhere near what they could have been at Pittsburg State, even though we are a run first team. There were games where he was wide open, but the QB chose to dump the ball underneath because it just wasn’t fair to the other team. Or they’d have him sit out a lot more than he should have. Even though he only played 3 years at Pittsburg State, I’m convinced Brown should own several D2 receiving records. 323 career receptions? Might have been tough, but doable. 4,983 career receiving yards? Should have had that. 1,876 yards in a season? Easily could have had it. 78 career receiving touchdowns? You betcha. Had the PSU coaching staff been obnoxious enough, and fed him the ball every chance they got, I firmly believe Brown could have had 100+ receptions for 2,000+ yards at our level – for each of his three seasons – definitely his last two. I can’t even imagine how many TD’s he could have had. Pittsburg State is occasionally accused of running up the score. Those people never noticed who was not getting the ball. I’ve overheard opposing fans say stuff like “Thank God they stopped throwing it to him.”
-3- With his frame, Brown should not go over the middle, but he’s fearless. As long as his body will let him, and I hope it does, he will get open whether it’s down the field or over the middle. I’ve seen teams (yes, lesser talent) basically roll 3 and 4 guys his way and he’d still fight for the ball, get it, and break loose. He’s a scrapper with speed.
-4- The Arizona Cardinals offense is an ideal fit for Brown. When I saw that the Cards were the team who drafted Brown I was stunned – he is built for Arians system. Brown is going to love playing for them. I was a little surprised he was a 3rd round pick. That increases the expectations of him and only time will tell if he surpasses them. But based on what I myself have seen of him personally and what the reporters and coaches have been saying about him in Arizona, I think he is well on his way.
-5- The biggest knock against Brown is his size. If John Brown was 6’4” and 210” every college fan in America would know his name. Thank goodness he isn’t that big, because that meant I and my sons actually got to see him play in person. If the NFL refs are going to call a lot more defensive holding this season, that eliminates that concern. LETTING JOHN BROWN RUN A ROUTE WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO TOUCH HIM IS CHEATING.
I don’t know if Brown will be a role player, a stud, or fizzle out at the NFL level. I do know that when he is on the field you better keep an eye on him.
Once a Gorilla, always a Gorilla… even if you’re wearing Cardinal red.
So for me to create an account to make a single post should tell you something. I saw this thread and had to comment.
I am a graduate of Pittsburg State University and our family regularly attends Gorilla football games. Yes, even at our level, every few years we’ll see a kid on one of the D2 teams who has slipped through the cracks of college football and is clearly special (Rod Smith of Missouri Southern/Denver Broncos and Joique Bell of Wayne State/Detroit Lions come to mind). If you’re lucky enough, as we have been at Pittsburg State, every 8 to 10 years you’ll get a guy who is head and shoulders above everyone else, even the All Americans. For us it was Ronnie West and Ronald Moore in the early 90’s (both Harlon Hill winners – the D2 MVP) and Aaron McConnell and Germaine Race in the early 2000’s (Race should have been a Harlon Hill winner, but I digress).
When John Brown first took the field for Pittsburg State none of the fans had a clue who he was. He was just another transfer from Florida who at spent time at an area community college. By the time he left everyone was a fan of our #5. He’s a good kid who clearly enjoys playing the game and if I had to describe his playing style in one word it would be “electric” (I wrote this BEFORE the NFL Facebook comment!) – it is what he was meant to do and for him to get a shot in the NFL is awesome.
Some things to keep in mind:
-1- Speed kills at every level. It does not matter what level of play you are in if the defender simply cannot keep up. He isn’t just fast, he’s a smooth runner and makes it look effortless. Think flag football. If somebody gets a hold of his jersey, he’s going down. IF they get a hold of his jersey.
-2- Brown’s numbers were nowhere near what they could have been at Pittsburg State, even though we are a run first team. There were games where he was wide open, but the QB chose to dump the ball underneath because it just wasn’t fair to the other team. Or they’d have him sit out a lot more than he should have. Even though he only played 3 years at Pittsburg State, I’m convinced Brown should own several D2 receiving records. 323 career receptions? Might have been tough, but doable. 4,983 career receiving yards? Should have had that. 1,876 yards in a season? Easily could have had it. 78 career receiving touchdowns? You betcha. Had the PSU coaching staff been obnoxious enough, and fed him the ball every chance they got, I firmly believe Brown could have had 100+ receptions for 2,000+ yards at our level – for each of his three seasons – definitely his last two. I can’t even imagine how many TD’s he could have had. Pittsburg State is occasionally accused of running up the score. Those people never noticed who was not getting the ball. I’ve overheard opposing fans say stuff like “Thank God they stopped throwing it to him.”
-3- With his frame, Brown should not go over the middle, but he’s fearless. As long as his body will let him, and I hope it does, he will get open whether it’s down the field or over the middle. I’ve seen teams (yes, lesser talent) basically roll 3 and 4 guys his way and he’d still fight for the ball, get it, and break loose. He’s a scrapper with speed.
-4- The Arizona Cardinals offense is an ideal fit for Brown. When I saw that the Cards were the team who drafted Brown I was stunned – he is built for Arians system. Brown is going to love playing for them. I was a little surprised he was a 3rd round pick. That increases the expectations of him and only time will tell if he surpasses them. But based on what I myself have seen of him personally and what the reporters and coaches have been saying about him in Arizona, I think he is well on his way.
-5- The biggest knock against Brown is his size. If John Brown was 6’4” and 210” every college fan in America would know his name. Thank goodness he isn’t that big, because that meant I and my sons actually got to see him play in person. If the NFL refs are going to call a lot more defensive holding this season, that eliminates that concern. LETTING JOHN BROWN RUN A ROUTE WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO TOUCH HIM IS CHEATING.
I don’t know if Brown will be a role player, a stud, or fizzle out at the NFL level. I do know that when he is on the field you better keep an eye on him.
Once a Gorilla, always a Gorilla… even if you’re wearing Cardinal red.
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steveski
Footballguy
Great post, thanks for sharing. It's always nice hearing an opinion from someone who has seen him play quite a bit, no matter the level. Watching highlights is nothing like watching a full game and seeing for yourself. There are some players that just have "it" and you can't even really describe why you know they're special, but you know they are.
I remember playing pop warner football with a kid named Mike Hart, if you are a Michigan fan then you know who he is. I remember as a 13 year old kid telling my dad..."This kid's going to be in the NFL". He was doubted at every level he played at because of his size. He broke all sorts of high school records and then went on to break a bunch of records at Michigan. Unfortunately it seemed like his size and injuries seemed to limit him at the NFL level. He flashed brilliance but just couldn't stay healthy and put it together for a long enough period to keep a spot in the NFL. From what you're saying, John Brown appears to have this same "it" factor that you just see with your eyes and just know he's special. Hopefully he can continue to be great at the NFL level. I don't think being undersized is as big of a deal for a WR as it is a RB, especially with the current NFL rules. A WR isn't going to be taking a beating like a RB takes.
I think after Week 1 of the preseason, Brown is pretty much a lock for the #3 WR spot, unless he just completely falls apart. I doubt he does that. From a fantasy perspective, I'm not quite sure how he'll do. He led the team in targets in the first game, but Floyd and Ginn didn't play. The important part was that he was given the opportunity and he made the most of it. It's just really hard to fathom the #3 WR on the Cardinals being a startable position in fantasy, but who knows?
steveski
Footballguy
I'm just now watching the game on DVR and I'm halfway through the 1st quarter. John Brown already has 2 catches, should be 3. His first I believe was a slant that he bobbled but hauled it in. The 2nd was a nice grab that was high and in traffic across the middle. Real nice catch by him. What should have been the 3rd was when he beat the CB by at least a couple steps on what looked like a go route. Staunton severely underthrew the ball and Brown had to come back to it and drew PI and still almost made the catch. He looks real good.
The announcers can't stop talking about him and how the team loves him. They keep comparing him to Marvin Harrison. They cut away to an interview of Carson Palmer raving about the guy as well. I thought of him as a what the heck dynasty add, but now I'm even thinking of drafting him late in redraft. I'm now to the point where I'd be surprised if this guy DOESN'T amount to something in the NFL.
If you're in dynasty and he's available, you have to grab him now.
The announcers can't stop talking about him and how the team loves him. They keep comparing him to Marvin Harrison. They cut away to an interview of Carson Palmer raving about the guy as well. I thought of him as a what the heck dynasty add, but now I'm even thinking of drafting him late in redraft. I'm now to the point where I'd be surprised if this guy DOESN'T amount to something in the NFL.
If you're in dynasty and he's available, you have to grab him now.
Card Trader
Footballguy
steveski
Footballguy
Coach3K
Footballguy
Don't feel bad - the announcers had it wrong for a couple of plays until they made a point of correcting themselves, too.
He had a drop over the middle later, followed by his only catch on the next play (I believe). Nothing really stood out.
Might be a good thing to see him drop off some radars before drafts next weekend.
He had a drop over the middle later, followed by his only catch on the next play (I believe). Nothing really stood out.
Might be a good thing to see him drop off some radars before drafts next weekend.
Card Trader
Footballguy
steveski
Footballguy
Agreed. He's a 3rd round pick that has been praised non stop as soon as he stepped foot on the practice field. Him making the team isn't an issue. The question is how much he plays this year.He feels like he's am UDFA type guy but he's not. The team invested a lot to get him. Even if he's done nothing so far he'd most likely make the team.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Probably thought he was Jaron Brown... Idiots.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
My favorite sleeper this year. Maybe not a difference-maker in redraft, but I'd be buying in dynasty/keeper leagues.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Keep in mind that Collinsworth was also saying how Arians likes to keep a bunch of good TE's around after Fells made a couple of catches.
No meat, all filler.
I assumed that was it at first, but then I went back and watched it again- they specifically said Jaron was secure with his spot and John was fighting to make the team. I realized they must be idiots when they later said "if" Cincy's 2nd round pick Hill makes the team, it wouldn't bode well for BJGE.
Here's the clip of Brown's TD, when they say it for the 2nd time. I normally don't listen to them, so I guess I just never realized how clueless these guys are.
lod01
Footballguy
Another vote for clueless. It was the other guy that was saying it. Collingsworth didn't correct him however. I'm sure he wanted to.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
It really doesn't mean much except that the NFL (and the TV networks) are really trying to promote the "reality TV" angle regarding the draft/training camp/pre-season. I they can't get the season extended to more than 16 games, they want to find a way to make the pre-season more interesting (and therefore make more money). So every rookie is "fighting for a roster spot". Drama sells.
Anyway, back to Brown. Any word on whether or not he'll be handling returns?
lod01
Footballguy
I didn't see him doing it tonight and I don't want to see him doing it. They have Ginn for that.
BallparkFrank
Footballguy
I have a dynasty rookie draft tonight - where would you slot this guy currently on your draft board?
cstu
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
Remember that Larry Fitz could be gone after this year. He's cap hit in 2015 is $23 million. He's old and slow. If Brown produces and Juron Brown takes steps, they can let him walk. He might want out anyway.
jurb26
Footballguy
Brown could get 60% of the offensive snaps this year.
"(Rotoworld)Coach Bruce Arians believes third-round WR John Brown could play up to 60 percent of the Cardinals' offensive snaps.
Analysis: That would be more than enough to put Brown on the fantasy radar. As NFL.com's Chris Wesseling points out, T.Y. Hilton played 57 percent of the Colts' snaps as a rookie for Arians in 2012. Hilton is a player to whom Brown has been frequently compared. The source of constant praise from his coach and GM Steve Keim, Brown has 10 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown through three preseason games. He's shaping up as a viable late-round flier."
"(Rotoworld)Coach Bruce Arians believes third-round WR John Brown could play up to 60 percent of the Cardinals' offensive snaps.
Analysis: That would be more than enough to put Brown on the fantasy radar. As NFL.com's Chris Wesseling points out, T.Y. Hilton played 57 percent of the Colts' snaps as a rookie for Arians in 2012. Hilton is a player to whom Brown has been frequently compared. The source of constant praise from his coach and GM Steve Keim, Brown has 10 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown through three preseason games. He's shaping up as a viable late-round flier."
So, if we assume Ellington is out, anyone think Brown stands to benefit? Seems like Brown has a better chance to make the big play than either Dwyer or Taylor... though frankly I don't know what either of them are like in the passing game. Do those 5-7 projected targets for Ellington just get reassigned or split between those two or do they go somewhere else?
Last year the Cardinals ran 1037 offensive plays. Andre Roberts played 605 (58%) of those as the WR3, and was targeted 13% of those. Combined with a possible redistribution of Ellington's targets, anyone else think we're looking at more 3WR sets, possibly an increase in snap count for him above the 60% quoted already and that Roberts got last year and end up with a serviceable WR3 in Brown at least until Ellington gets back?
Assume same # total Cards offensive snaps: 1037
Increased snap count for Brown to 60%: 622
Same target % as 2013 WR3 at 14%: 81 targets
For perspective in 2013:
Fitz: 134 targets
Floyd: 112 targets
87 targets works out to about 4.8 a game and seems pretty conservative. If his snap count goes up and his target % increases even slightly (seems like there is room in the offense for both) it looks like there is some real potential here. Thoughts?
Edited to fix error pointed out by Craig
Last year the Cardinals ran 1037 offensive plays. Andre Roberts played 605 (58%) of those as the WR3, and was targeted 13% of those. Combined with a possible redistribution of Ellington's targets, anyone else think we're looking at more 3WR sets, possibly an increase in snap count for him above the 60% quoted already and that Roberts got last year and end up with a serviceable WR3 in Brown at least until Ellington gets back?
Assume same # total Cards offensive snaps: 1037
Increased snap count for Brown to 60%: 622
Same target % as 2013 WR3 at 14%: 81 targets
For perspective in 2013:
Fitz: 134 targets
Floyd: 112 targets
87 targets works out to about 4.8 a game and seems pretty conservative. If his snap count goes up and his target % increases even slightly (seems like there is room in the offense for both) it looks like there is some real potential here. Thoughts?
Edited to fix error pointed out by Craig
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Assume you mean Andre Roberts and not Ginn (1st year with Cards)
80-100 targets seems like good estimate/range with Ellington looking to be out for a bit.. (FWIW I expect Fitz to see 150+ targets as he'll play in the slot even more this season -- approaching that same 60% figure). Safe to assume Floyd also sees increase in targets as well. Brown will unquestionably make an impact, just don't think (barring injury to Fitz/Floyd) it'll be a consistent one in fantasy this season. He was as impressive of rookie WR as I saw this preseason. Unquestionably has the talent to make parting with Fitz next offseason easier (if they can't renegotiate a new deal with Fitz). Antonio Brown/TY Hilton comps are pretty fair with Brown.
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Thanks Craig; I screwed that up actually, you're right Andre Roberts was the WR3 and played almost exactly 60% of the snaps last year receiving 76 targets. So you're 80-100 represents him filling that role w/ a little additional volume from the absence (presumed) of Ellington. Makes sense to me.If you're right though and Fitz spends more time in the slot and pushes Brown outside combined with Browns big play ability does it get more interesting? Not sure what to guess his yard per catch at but it almost seems guaranteed to be far higher than Roberts (11.5ypc). Brown had one college season in the 15.5ypc range, but his other three were all 19.6-22ypc (admittedly this is in D2). He has great hands too, seems like he'd do better than Roberts 55.6% catch rate.
Out of curiosity:
Assume 80-100 targets at 60% catch rate: 48-60 recs
Assume 15.5ypc: 744-930
Assume 17.5ypc: 840-1050
Assume 18.5ypc: 888-1110
Maybe some sneaky value here? I agree with you though, seems like he'd be pretty up and down.
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
40-50 600-750 4-5 probably a good estimate.
I dont see Carson/this offense supporting a 3rd relevant fantasy WR. Even at his peak with Bengals, Carson didn't support a consistent option at 3rd WR in Chris Henry. He's worth a late pick because their probably aren't a lot of backup WR with a lot more upside. (Handcuffed Fitz with Brown in a 20 player roster league)
I dont see Carson/this offense supporting a 3rd relevant fantasy WR. Even at his peak with Bengals, Carson didn't support a consistent option at 3rd WR in Chris Henry. He's worth a late pick because their probably aren't a lot of backup WR with a lot more upside. (Handcuffed Fitz with Brown in a 20 player roster league)
We Tigers
Footballguy
I'm surprised this hasn't gotten a bump after a very interesting debut. 2 catches/29 yards and an awesome game-winning TD (!) on 5 targets. He seemed to play in most 3WR sets, and the team definitely drew up a few plays just to try to get the ball in his hands, the TD foremost among them. On one hand, that's a good thing; on the other, it raises questions on how many looks he's really going to get on garden variety plays that aren't designed just for him.
In dynasty, he's obviously shown some pretty impressive stuff already. What about redraft? The first week is going to see guys like Hurns, Quick, Robert Woods, and Andrew Hawkins come off the wire--where does Brown fit in, given the Cardinals commitment to getting him involved vs. his role as the #4 receiving option?
In dynasty, he's obviously shown some pretty impressive stuff already. What about redraft? The first week is going to see guys like Hurns, Quick, Robert Woods, and Andrew Hawkins come off the wire--where does Brown fit in, given the Cardinals commitment to getting him involved vs. his role as the #4 receiving option?
Henry Ford
Footballguy
The vision, patience, and explosiveness he showed on the touchdown run was eye opening. When he gets his opportunity to star, he's going to earn some serious money and playing time.
That said, Fitzgerald and Floyd are #1 and #2 for this year. Unless or until there's an injury, his value is limited to a Wes Welker role with Palmer as his QB. Not terribly enticing.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Got him in a keeper league and was excited to see his involvement, but it's not easy to get very excited about him this season. Palmer will be OK but he won't do enough to make 4 pass-catchers relevent in fantasy (including Ellington there). Everyone compares Brown to Hilton, and Hilton is still boom/bust player even after climbing the ranks.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Palmer also threw him a corner fade inside the the 10 yard line. I thought that showed a lot of trust for the rookie who is undersized for a red zone target.
