Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
True it is a BB team we are talking about. But he clearly looks like the one to take over Ridley's role going forward. I'm buying.Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
Nope.Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
You would think people would learn by nowCould really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Learn what?You would think people would learn by nowCould really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
Sims, not close.Sims or gray as the top ww rb this week?
Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
Extremely unlikely he puts up a single zero for the rest of the season (injuries aside).Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
TB RBs are not doing anything because the line stinks and they are always losing, do you see that changing just because a rookie on IR all season is back? I sure hope not. While I have my doubts on Gray, he at least is playing on a team who does run and has a good team. What three headed monster you prefer a RB from? Martin, Sims and Rainey or Vereen Gray and Bolden? Keep it basic while choosing between the two.Sims, not close.Sims or gray as the top ww rb this week?
Main reasoning. TB really liked Sims coming into the season and they inherited the other 2 backs whom they don't seem to like. The other is a NE running back...
ya, I picked them both up last week but if I had to make a choice Sims is by far the best pickup for the rest of the year. TB seems to really like him and while Gray will likely get carries, it's just too unpredictable on a week to week basis. Gray may be a better plug in this week if you are looking for a one week play. After picking up Gray last week I'm going to try and package him up in a couple leagues to guys desperate for RBs.Sims, not close.Sims or gray as the top ww rb this week?
Main reasoning. TB really liked Sims coming into the season and they inherited the other 2 backs whom they don't seem to like. The other is a NE running back...
For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
He did put up .6 just two weeks ago in my league.Extremely unlikely he puts up a single zero for the rest of the season (injuries aside).Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
Look at Robinson and everyone was saying the same thing about a bad line and a bad team just last week and he has another 100+ yard game vs. a very good run defense last week. It happens every year that a guy from the Raiders or some bottom dweller rises to fantasy relevance. In the case of Sims it looks to be a perfect storm...the staff loves him, Martin is banged up, the guys in the role now have done nothing, and they are playing for next year. He's a good wr and runner so he can be a 3 down back and more importantly stay on the field when / if they are down. Look at the stretch run that Rainey had last year on this same crappy team down the stretch last year...he had 6 tds and some very good games over the last 6 weeks. I think the upside and chance for a feature role is far, far greater in the Sims situation.TB RBs are not doing anything because the line stinks and they are always losing, do you see that changing just because a rookie on IR all season is back? I sure hope not. While I have my doubts on Gray, he at least is playing on a team who does run and has a good team. What three headed monster you prefer a RB from? Martin, Sims and Rainey or Vereen Gray and Bolden? Keep it basic while choosing between the two.Sims, not close.Sims or gray as the top ww rb this week?
Main reasoning. TB really liked Sims coming into the season and they inherited the other 2 backs whom they don't seem to like. The other is a NE running back...
No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
Right, and nothing has changed since then.He did put up .6 just two weeks ago in my league.Extremely unlikely he puts up a single zero for the rest of the season (injuries aside).Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
Yes, NE's "Big Back" is typically less consistent than other guys in the RB25-30 range (maybe -- have you looked?), but he'll still get you 11-12ppg on average. Which is typically all I care about.No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.Since the 2010 season, NE has played 72 games. In 35 of those games, the "big back" has failed to get 10 FF points. I'm sure there was at least 1 other instance where a big back scored 10, but failed to score 11. So, there is a perfectly valid reason not to project Gray for 11-12 FF points; it is a coin flip as to whether that will happen or not.For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
NE's "big back usage" isn't predictable (nor is it's usage of Vereen, for that matter). You can try to look at the matchups, you can try to predict when they'll have a lead and pound the ball vs when they'll need to throw more, you can try to predict when they will run between the tackles vs on the edges, but what you should have learned from the last 5 years is not "the NE big back will get 11-12 ppg," but rather that you can't consistently predict the usage of NE RBs.
Not really, he is still a NE RB coached by BB. He could be inactive this week. BB could roll with Bolden, Vereen and White. Just because some like him in fantasy does not mean BB cares.Right, and nothing has changed since then.He did put up .6 just two weeks ago in my league.Extremely unlikely he puts up a single zero for the rest of the season (injuries aside).Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
That's all you care about? So, he gets you 19 points 1 week, but 3 the next week, and you're okay with being 1-1 those 2 weeks, because he averaged 11 ppg, as opposed to going with a RB who will consistently get you 11 FF ppg, and maybe lets you go 2-0 those 2 weeks? That's not very smart.Yes, NE's "Big Back" is typically less consistent than other guys in the RB25-30 range (maybe -- have you looked?), but he'll still get you 11-12ppg on average. Which is typically all I care about.No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.Since the 2010 season, NE has played 72 games. In 35 of those games, the "big back" has failed to get 10 FF points. I'm sure there was at least 1 other instance where a big back scored 10, but failed to score 11. So, there is a perfectly valid reason not to project Gray for 11-12 FF points; it is a coin flip as to whether that will happen or not.For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
NE's "big back usage" isn't predictable (nor is it's usage of Vereen, for that matter). You can try to look at the matchups, you can try to predict when they'll have a lead and pound the ball vs when they'll need to throw more, you can try to predict when they will run between the tackles vs on the edges, but what you should have learned from the last 5 years is not "the NE big back will get 11-12 ppg," but rather that you can't consistently predict the usage of NE RBs.
Just to play devil's advocate regarding the bold part above, the high variance guy (higher ceiling, lower floor) could also be the difference between them being 1-1 and 0-2 those two weeks.Bayhawks said:That's all you care about? So, he gets you 19 points 1 week, but 3 the next week, and you're okay with being 1-1 those 2 weeks, because he averaged 11 ppg, as opposed to going with a RB who will consistently get you 11 FF ppg, and maybe lets you go 2-0 those 2 weeks? That's not very smart.wdcrob said:Yes, NE's "Big Back" is typically less consistent than other guys in the RB25-30 range (maybe -- have you looked?), but he'll still get you 11-12ppg on average. Which is typically all I care about.Bayhawks said:No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.Since the 2010 season, NE has played 72 games. In 35 of those games, the "big back" has failed to get 10 FF points. I'm sure there was at least 1 other instance where a big back scored 10, but failed to score 11. So, there is a perfectly valid reason not to project Gray for 11-12 FF points; it is a coin flip as to whether that will happen or not.wdcrob said:For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.Ketamine Dreams said:How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?wdcrob said:That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
NE's "big back usage" isn't predictable (nor is it's usage of Vereen, for that matter). You can try to look at the matchups, you can try to predict when they'll have a lead and pound the ball vs when they'll need to throw more, you can try to predict when they will run between the tackles vs on the edges, but what you should have learned from the last 5 years is not "the NE big back will get 11-12 ppg," but rather that you can't consistently predict the usage of NE RBs.
True, but he could also put up 2 duds in a row, and you could be 0-2.Just to play devil's advocate regarding the bold part above, the high variance guy (higher ceiling, lower floor) could also be the difference between them being 1-1 and 0-2 those two weeks.Bayhawks said:That's all you care about? So, he gets you 19 points 1 week, but 3 the next week, and you're okay with being 1-1 those 2 weeks, because he averaged 11 ppg, as opposed to going with a RB who will consistently get you 11 FF ppg, and maybe lets you go 2-0 those 2 weeks? That's not very smart.wdcrob said:Yes, NE's "Big Back" is typically less consistent than other guys in the RB25-30 range (maybe -- have you looked?), but he'll still get you 11-12ppg on average. Which is typically all I care about.Bayhawks said:No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.Since the 2010 season, NE has played 72 games. In 35 of those games, the "big back" has failed to get 10 FF points. I'm sure there was at least 1 other instance where a big back scored 10, but failed to score 11. So, there is a perfectly valid reason not to project Gray for 11-12 FF points; it is a coin flip as to whether that will happen or not.wdcrob said:For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.Ketamine Dreams said:How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?wdcrob said:That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
NE's "big back usage" isn't predictable (nor is it's usage of Vereen, for that matter). You can try to look at the matchups, you can try to predict when they'll have a lead and pound the ball vs when they'll need to throw more, you can try to predict when they will run between the tackles vs on the edges, but what you should have learned from the last 5 years is not "the NE big back will get 11-12 ppg," but rather that you can't consistently predict the usage of NE RBs.
Yes, I agree that NE RB is a higher variance, impossible to predict situation. I wasn't disputing that. Top teams wouldn't put that risk into their lineup. But, for other teams, higher ceilings are worth the risk. Cellar dwellar teams just hoping to play a "spoiler" role should embrace variance, not avoid it. Some bubble teams may benefit from that as well. I was thinking (but didn't communicate very well) that avoiding variance just isn't a good one-size-fits-all strategy for every fantasy situation.True, but he could also put up 2 duds in a row, and you could be 0-2.Just to play devil's advocate regarding the bold part above, the high variance guy (higher ceiling, lower floor) could also be the difference between them being 1-1 and 0-2 those two weeks.Bayhawks said:That's all you care about? So, he gets you 19 points 1 week, but 3 the next week, and you're okay with being 1-1 those 2 weeks, because he averaged 11 ppg, as opposed to going with a RB who will consistently get you 11 FF ppg, and maybe lets you go 2-0 those 2 weeks? That's not very smart.wdcrob said:Yes, NE's "Big Back" is typically less consistent than other guys in the RB25-30 range (maybe -- have you looked?), but he'll still get you 11-12ppg on average. Which is typically all I care about.Bayhawks said:No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.Since the 2010 season, NE has played 72 games. In 35 of those games, the "big back" has failed to get 10 FF points. I'm sure there was at least 1 other instance where a big back scored 10, but failed to score 11. So, there is a perfectly valid reason not to project Gray for 11-12 FF points; it is a coin flip as to whether that will happen or not.wdcrob said:For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.Ketamine Dreams said:How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?wdcrob said:That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
NE's "big back usage" isn't predictable (nor is it's usage of Vereen, for that matter). You can try to look at the matchups, you can try to predict when they'll have a lead and pound the ball vs when they'll need to throw more, you can try to predict when they will run between the tackles vs on the edges, but what you should have learned from the last 5 years is not "the NE big back will get 11-12 ppg," but rather that you can't consistently predict the usage of NE RBs.
The point is that NE RB usage is more difficult to predict (in my experience) than other situations. Sometimes, with little advance warning, a RB gets no PT, then others, he gets an abnormally high workload.
It's not simply(RBA gets more work when they are up, RBb gets more work when they're trailing; as a result depending on a NE RB (in recent years) has been risky, and definitely not a situation where you can project him for 11-12 points a week.
I tend to avoid extreme variance in my players, but I know what you are saying. My original post was in response to the suggestion that (because of one game), Gray could be expected to average 11-12 ppg because that is what the "big back" in NE has done over the last few years.Yes, I agree that NE RB is a higher variance, impossible to predict situation. I wasn't disputing that. Top teams wouldn't put that risk into their lineup. But, for other teams, higher ceilings are worth the risk. Cellar dwellar teams just hoping to play a "spoiler" role should embrace variance, not avoid it. Some bubble teams may benefit from that as well. I was thinking (but didn't communicate very well) that avoiding variance just isn't a good one-size-fits-all strategy for every fantasy situation.True, but he could also put up 2 duds in a row, and you could be 0-2.Just to play devil's advocate regarding the bold part above, the high variance guy (higher ceiling, lower floor) could also be the difference between them being 1-1 and 0-2 those two weeks.Bayhawks said:That's all you care about? So, he gets you 19 points 1 week, but 3 the next week, and you're okay with being 1-1 those 2 weeks, because he averaged 11 ppg, as opposed to going with a RB who will consistently get you 11 FF ppg, and maybe lets you go 2-0 those 2 weeks? That's not very smart.wdcrob said:Yes, NE's "Big Back" is typically less consistent than other guys in the RB25-30 range (maybe -- have you looked?), but he'll still get you 11-12ppg on average. Which is typically all I care about.Bayhawks said:No reason, other than the fact that it's completely unpredictable.Since the 2010 season, NE has played 72 games. In 35 of those games, the "big back" has failed to get 10 FF points. I'm sure there was at least 1 other instance where a big back scored 10, but failed to score 11. So, there is a perfectly valid reason not to project Gray for 11-12 FF points; it is a coin flip as to whether that will happen or not.wdcrob said:For 2014, very. But I'm not confident anyone gets double-digit carries every week in that offense.Ketamine Dreams said:How sold are you on Gray staying as the big back guy and getting double digit carries each week?wdcrob said:That there's a role in the Patriots' offense for a big back and that in the last five years BJGE, Ridley and Blount have all put up RB2ish type numbers in that role?
Still, we know what the big back role looks like. We've seen it for five years with three different backs. No reason not to project Gray for the same 11-12ppg in that role. Nice RB2/3 #s but with a lot of variance.
NE's "big back usage" isn't predictable (nor is it's usage of Vereen, for that matter). You can try to look at the matchups, you can try to predict when they'll have a lead and pound the ball vs when they'll need to throw more, you can try to predict when they will run between the tackles vs on the edges, but what you should have learned from the last 5 years is not "the NE big back will get 11-12 ppg," but rather that you can't consistently predict the usage of NE RBs.
The point is that NE RB usage is more difficult to predict (in my experience) than other situations. Sometimes, with little advance warning, a RB gets no PT, then others, he gets an abnormally high workload.
It's not simply(RBA gets more work when they are up, RBb gets more work when they're trailing; as a result depending on a NE RB (in recent years) has been risky, and definitely not a situation where you can project him for 11-12 points a week.
Right now Bolden is a key special teams players and White is basically Vereen's backup so I don't think you will see Gray inactive at all. Yes, the Patriots switch up their game plan on a weekly basis depending on their opponent more than any other team in the NFL. That said, I would watch the weather forecast for Sunday because a quick analysis would lean one to think Vereen is in line for a lot of touches but I think if it snows Gray might get a lot of work.Jerry Curl said:Not really, he is still a NE RB coached by BB. He could be inactive this week. BB could roll with Bolden, Vereen and White. Just because some like him in fantasy does not mean BB cares.PatsWillWin said:Right, and nothing has changed since then.Jerry Curl said:He did put up .6 just two weeks ago in my league.PatsWillWin said:Extremely unlikely he puts up a single zero for the rest of the season (injuries aside).Could really easily get a zero every week.Grab him now. JMO. Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.
And even after this happened, 50% of the time, Ridley (or the other NE "big backs") failed to score 10 ff points.No sense in trying to figure out yet, but if Gray gets a lot of work next weekend and does well with it - without putting the ball on the ground - I think we will have some reasonable confirmation that Gray is going to be the hammer. Once Ridley got that job, there wasn't a whole lot of guesswork week to week until he starting fumbling, so the precedent is there.
What period are you referring to?And even after this happened, 50% of the time, Ridley (or the other NE "big backs") failed to score 10 ff points.No sense in trying to figure out yet, but if Gray gets a lot of work next weekend and does well with it - without putting the ball on the ground - I think we will have some reasonable confirmation that Gray is going to be the hammer. Once Ridley got that job, there wasn't a whole lot of guesswork week to week until he starting fumbling, so the precedent is there.
So do you agree it feels like a vereen game this week?What is everyone arguing about , Gray slides right into Ridley role and that comes with all the ups and downs that it had earlier in the year. I absolutely hate the match-up this week though for obvious reasons (DEN's rush def + game flow). I could easily see a stat line like 7/30/0.
Yes.So do you agree it feels like a vereen game this week?What is everyone arguing about , Gray slides right into Ridley role and that comes with all the ups and downs that it had earlier in the year. I absolutely hate the match-up this week though for obvious reasons (DEN's rush def + game flow). I could easily see a stat line like 7/30/0.
What makes you think they would trade for him? Guess he would just be depth. Vereen and gray know the system and are playing better than martinSo if Martin is traded to New England, does he fill the medium back role?
Rumors are swirling.What makes you think they would trade for him? Guess he would just be depth. Vereen and gray know the system and are playing better than martinSo if Martin is traded to New England, does he fill the medium back role?
Rumors are always swirling.Rumors are swirling.What makes you think they would trade for him? Guess he would just be depth. Vereen and gray know the system and are playing better than martinSo if Martin is traded to New England, does he fill the medium back role?
Or BB likes to try and take away the other team's best weapon. Instead of slinging it all over and getting Lafell, Vereen and Gronk 10 targets a piece, he runs the ground and pound to try and keep Peyton off the field in a day predicted to be somewhat cold, windy and possibly snow?So do you agree it feels like a vereen game this week?What is everyone arguing about , Gray slides right into Ridley role and that comes with all the ups and downs that it had earlier in the year. I absolutely hate the match-up this week though for obvious reasons (DEN's rush def + game flow). I could easily see a stat line like 7/30/0.
Except he had 9 of his 17 carries in the 1st qtr when it was either 0-0 or 7-0.Gray got the carries this week because the Pats were up by 5 touchdowns. Pretty simple...and very hard to predict. Most would have thought the Bears could have, at least, kept up with them to the tune of only being down a TD or two. Vereen would have been more relevant if that were the case.
This week, I sense a NE team that knows it will need to score to win. BB's ego is as large as my nutsack....and thats huge. He isn't gonna be the dope to try to try to play keep-away from Manning and the Broncos. He's gonna fight fire with fire.
Huge Vereen day on tap, not so much for Gray unless there is a goaline TD to be had.
Gonna have to show your work on this one.Gray got the carries this week because the Pats were up by 5 touchdowns.
Huh? Other than Miami, every team they play for the rest of the season has either a prolific offense and/or a top-10 run defense.this week's matchup with Denver screams vereen to me. Denver has been lights out at stuffing opposing running games. Ne is going to want to exploit their weakness which is the pass (good all around defense but better against the run than the pass).
I can see vereen getting a lot of usage between the 20's and gray maybe getting a shot or 2 at GL carries.
After Denver though there aren't a whole lot of prolific offenses and stifling run defenses on the schedule so I think gray will break out starting in week 11.
Don't forget vereen was sick. It may have nothing to do with grays increased usage or it may be one of the causes.Except he had 9 of his 17 carries in the 1st qtr when it was either 0-0 or 7-0.Gray got the carries this week because the Pats were up by 5 touchdowns. Pretty simple...and very hard to predict. Most would have thought the Bears could have, at least, kept up with them to the tune of only being down a TD or two. Vereen would have been more relevant if that were the case.
This week, I sense a NE team that knows it will need to score to win. BB's ego is as large as my nutsack....and thats huge. He isn't gonna be the dope to try to try to play keep-away from Manning and the Broncos. He's gonna fight fire with fire.
Huge Vereen day on tap, not so much for Gray unless there is a goaline TD to be had.
iirc many NFL teams have tried to beat Peyton this way going back to his days in Indy. I'm not sure where to find the stats on that, but I don't think it has been a winning formula. It might be the best option for lesser teams, but I'd be surprised if BB came out with that tired old gameplan. The Pats have more options because they can score a lot, beat you different ways, and can play some defense. FWIW, they have been really good in the snow before.Or BB likes to try and take away the other team's best weapon. Instead of slinging it all over and getting Lafell, Vereen and Gronk 10 targets a piece, he runs the ground and pound to try and keep Peyton off the field in a day predicted to be somewhat cold, windy and possibly snow?So do you agree it feels like a vereen game this week?What is everyone arguing about , Gray slides right into Ridley role and that comes with all the ups and downs that it had earlier in the year. I absolutely hate the match-up this week though for obvious reasons (DEN's rush def + game flow). I could easily see a stat line like 7/30/0.
Now imagine he loses a fumble.Could easily get 8 TD's and 600 by season's end. Nice RB2 or 3.