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Jordan Matthews signed by Patriots (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
The Jordan Matthews hate is absurd. If you assume he makes the team, you assume he’s healthy. When he’s been healthy he never saw less than 100 targets in Philly and was on pace for 82 targets on half of one leg last year. I feel like either he’s healthy and makes the team providing a significant real, if not fantasy impact and if he’s not he doesn’t make it through camp and that’s pretty much the long and short of it. If he’s on the team 80 targets is the minimum for me.
85 was definitely not "literally" the most conservative estimate possible. As I pointed out, it took two separate injuries to Edelman for Amendola to get those targets.
Did Matthews kick your dog? I literally used the most conservative estimate possible. How many seasons has Edelman stayed healthy?
Edit: Edelman and Matthews are the only two WR’s to have 800 yards and play in 14 or more games in 3 of the last 4 season.
Edit 2: I was looking at Edelman’s last 4 seasons since 2016. He only played 9 games in 2015. In any case, the Patriots WR’s (including Gronk) are not the picture of durability.
I get it. There's a decent chance that someone on the Patriots gets hurt, but I'm not targeting a player where I'm absolutely banking on someone else's injury for him to maybe get 85 targets (still not enough to be a WR3).
And no, JM didn't kick my dog. I've got nothing against him. He's a player I considered buying low last year. I'm just not optimistic about his fantasy stock going forward. His profile is shaping up like a player that GMs tend to write off. The fact that he could only get $1M this year is a bad sign. And no, I'm not buying that he took a discount to play with Brady. If he'd had more offers, he'd have signed much earlier in free agency. And this has been a crazy free agency for WRs. Basically, if you've shown any signs of life in your career, you got paid this year. Have a look: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/77018/309/free-agency-update
Your optimism is absurd. Calling realism "hate" is absurd, too. Looking at his historical targets on a different team with less competition for targets is an exercise in futility. It's time to take off the rose colored glasses and admit to yourself that this will likely be a lost year for Matthews where you are praying other players miss time so he can rehab his value and find a role in 2019. He's 6'3" and runs a 4.46. There's hope for 2019. Maybe he shows well enough in practice to be NE's starting slot guy after they move on from Edelman. Maybe he flashes in a few games this year and someone else signs him. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't turn him down as a throw-in, either. There are worse flyers out there.
When was the last time a free agent signed for basically the veteran minimum and got 80 targets? I'd be surprised if that ever happened.
Seems reasonable.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You’re not going to agree with me and I’m not going to try and convince you. We’ll either meet again in camp when he is cut because his health is shot or we’ll see if I’m right that his role will at bottom be Danny Amendola’s. Over Danny Amendola’s career in NE 327 targets across 66 games for 4.95 targets a game over the course of 16 games.... 80 targets.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
As posted 1-2 pages ago in this thread, I have a local source in GB who says that Matthews failed his physical with the Packers, and thus didn't even have a chance to sign there.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Logic and reason states that there are roles in an offense and a certain amount of targets available. Hope and prayers are acting on gut feelings and predicting players get cut before they even get a chance.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Out of curiosity what is your projection for targets on NE’s offense?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The fact that he is only guaranteed $170k does lead some credence to the possibility of not making the team. I'm not saying he won't - he does have talent - but there's a reason why people are saying it.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
So it is more rational to say a player is cut then to project him at 80 targets? That would probably put him in some bottom barrel WR 4/5 territory.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Both outcomes are non-zero probability. I could see either one happening with decent likelihood.
Boston
Footballguy
Any veteran that goes to the Pats is in that boat...history shows that you never know if they can pick-up the system or earn Brady's trust...until a WR is on the practice field with him it is a question mark...I really like the Matthews signing and feel he can help them but anyone who thinks this is a definite is disregarding past history of the Brady era...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Both seem reasonable - I'd look at the 80 targets as a ceiling though (with some leeway for injuries to bump it up).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Bottom line is that Matthews is a bit of a crap shoot and a draft day or waiver wire lottery ticket. I doubt his acquisition costs would be very high (draft / auction / dynasty). For redraft leagues, we will likely know the likelihood of him sticking with the team by draft day. He'll end up being a mid to late round pick that may or may not pan out. I doubt there will be news that Matthews will be a three down receiver and considered a starter.
IF everyone is healthy, he will be behind Gronk and Edelman for the receiving options for Brady. Depending how things shake out, he may or may not be behind Britt / Mitchell / Dorsett at receiver and still has to contend with White and Burkhead out of the backfield. And they could still add another free agent or draft another receiver.
Theoretically, 200 targets became available with Cooks and Amendola departing . . . but last year saw no Edelman, no Mitchell, half a season of Hogan, and around half a season of Burkhead.
Best guess, Matthews takes over for Amendola and takes on his role (which last year was 86 targets but with other people healthy could be half as many targets).
IF everyone is healthy, he will be behind Gronk and Edelman for the receiving options for Brady. Depending how things shake out, he may or may not be behind Britt / Mitchell / Dorsett at receiver and still has to contend with White and Burkhead out of the backfield. And they could still add another free agent or draft another receiver.
Theoretically, 200 targets became available with Cooks and Amendola departing . . . but last year saw no Edelman, no Mitchell, half a season of Hogan, and around half a season of Burkhead.
Best guess, Matthews takes over for Amendola and takes on his role (which last year was 86 targets but with other people healthy could be half as many targets).
Yes, and those roles are currently occupied by Edelman, Hogan, and Gronk. The backup roles are less defined and will be a crap shoot between Mitchell, Britt, Dorsett, and Matthews.
You are going on a hope and a prayer if you think Matthews is going to get 85 targets as the depth chart stands now. Granted that injuries happen, so his role could grow out of necessity, as Amendola's did in 2015 and 2017 when you quoted his targets. Banking on injuries from other players = hope and a prayer.
I haven't actually done a projection for them yet, but I'd say maybe 275 WR targets with a healthy Gronk (let's say WR targets go up to 300 if Gronk is out half a season). 140 for Edelman. 90 for Hogan. 45 for Mitchell/Britt/Dorsett/Matthews. I like Mitchell, though. If he can stay healthy, he might earn a bigger role. But I think most of those guys are best as outside WRs. If Edelman gets hurt again, Hogan (who can play slot or outside) and Matthews will benefit the most.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The number of targets has dropped each year since Edelman took over for Welker in 2013. Not sure why that is, but one thing is a greater reliance on backs out of the backfield. That may be by choice or by necessity, but here are the numbers . . .
2013 - 395 targets to WR
2014 - 322
2015 - 310
2016 - 301
2017 - 284
That being said, even without Cooks, I think on paper they have decent roster depth if they all can stay healthy. However, if Edelman has lost a step or is sluggish coming back, the receiving options don't really wow me. It wouldn't surprise me if they drafted someone (although they certainly have other areas that they need help in). They did win the SB just two years ago with the same group of guys (less Amendola) and with no Gronk, so clearly they can still be a high scoring team without a true alpha / elite receiver.
2013 - 395 targets to WR
2014 - 322
2015 - 310
2016 - 301
2017 - 284
That being said, even without Cooks, I think on paper they have decent roster depth if they all can stay healthy. However, if Edelman has lost a step or is sluggish coming back, the receiving options don't really wow me. It wouldn't surprise me if they drafted someone (although they certainly have other areas that they need help in). They did win the SB just two years ago with the same group of guys (less Amendola) and with no Gronk, so clearly they can still be a high scoring team without a true alpha / elite receiver.
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
I think the argument on targets for him is pretty meaningless considering the fluctuation in scoring with NEP WR's. If he gets a decent amount of targets it may very well be the typical disappear for two games then have a big game where they exploit a matchup followed by a couple of mediocre games and so on. Their game plan varied so much from week to week that often their guys get some decent numbers at the end of the year but you can't rely on them to produce in any given week. They tailor their gameplan so much around their opponents and the matchups that it can be Hogan one week, Edelmen another, then a big Gronk game, then a game where they just pound the hell out of it with the run. Even the guys that do well don't tend to be consistent producers. I agree with those saying to trade him if you can upgrade while he gets the "OMG, imagine how he'll do with Brady throwing to him?" value bump. He'll likely bet a better NFL player than a fantasy one in NE.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Released
Patriots released WR Jordan Matthews.
Matthews suffered a "significant" hamstring injury on Sunday and has been sidelined ever since. The Patriots were deciding between either releasing him or sending Matthews to I.R. and chose the former. Injuries have crippled Matthews' career, and the Patriots are again/remain in the market for a wideout.
Patriots released WR Jordan Matthews.
Matthews suffered a "significant" hamstring injury on Sunday and has been sidelined ever since. The Patriots were deciding between either releasing him or sending Matthews to I.R. and chose the former. Injuries have crippled Matthews' career, and the Patriots are again/remain in the market for a wideout.
