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***KC Chiefs(9-4) at LA Chargers(8-5)*** AFC West Showdown on Thursday Night Football (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
IMO, Mahomes is obviously a great QB, but I think it’s undeniable that he is coming out on the wrong end of some of his more risky throws this year than he did previously.
rockaction
Footballguy
I’ve watched him intently since he came into the league as he’s my main dynasty QB. He’s making more risky throws than in the past. His guys aren’t as open as they have been. Glance up at the television and there’s no longer five yards of space separating the defensive backs from the WRs and TE. Just no longer the case. Teams are daring them to run, and they can’t.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Is Joe ahead of the curve on the laughing emoji?
https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/15-12-2021/no-laughing-matter-why-its-time-to-cancel-facebooks-haha-reaction
https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/15-12-2021/no-laughing-matter-why-its-time-to-cancel-facebooks-haha-reaction
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
My thought on Staley going for all of those 4th downs is this: if all of those decisions were correct, then kicking the extra points in the 4th Q was wrong. When they went up 20-13, why not go for 2 to get up by 9? And then hey, when they went up 27-21, why not go for 2 to force the Chiefs to need 8 to tie it at the end? Surely there is some analytics nerd out there who thinks going for 2 every time is the right decision, right?
ChiefD
Footballguy
Some random thoughts from the game last night and from reading this thread this morning:
1. Mahomes is a mess right now. But man, that 4th quarter is why you have that guy.
2. In response to the folks who say: "the chargers should be up by 30 by now", I say this:
Well, so could the Chiefs. If the Chiefs turn those 4th down stops into touchdowns, the Chiefs could have been up by 30. That argument always goes both ways. And that game was just a cluster#### the whole way through. BOTH teams made big plays. BOTH teams made mistakes. Just another crazy AFC west game against two really good, but flawed teams. Just like the rest of the NFL.
3. Justin Herbert v Mahomes is going to be a great rivalry for years.
4. Brandon Staley needs to put points on the board at least some of the time. I felt there were a few times there where he could have added to the Chiefs tension just by scoring. There is a difference in being aggressive and being stupid.
5. He should have gone for two when they went up 7 after the TD. The extra point made it an 8 point (one possession game), where the two points makes it 9 (two possession game). That would add that little extra pressure to the Chiefs. If he's gonna be Mr. Aggressive THIS is when you go for it.
6. The Chiefs defense did pretty damn good I thought despite losing 3 key guys. I was surprised.
1. Mahomes is a mess right now. But man, that 4th quarter is why you have that guy.
2. In response to the folks who say: "the chargers should be up by 30 by now", I say this:
Well, so could the Chiefs. If the Chiefs turn those 4th down stops into touchdowns, the Chiefs could have been up by 30. That argument always goes both ways. And that game was just a cluster#### the whole way through. BOTH teams made big plays. BOTH teams made mistakes. Just another crazy AFC west game against two really good, but flawed teams. Just like the rest of the NFL.
3. Justin Herbert v Mahomes is going to be a great rivalry for years.
4. Brandon Staley needs to put points on the board at least some of the time. I felt there were a few times there where he could have added to the Chiefs tension just by scoring. There is a difference in being aggressive and being stupid.
5. He should have gone for two when they went up 7 after the TD. The extra point made it an 8 point (one possession game), where the two points makes it 9 (two possession game). That would add that little extra pressure to the Chiefs. If he's gonna be Mr. Aggressive THIS is when you go for it.
6. The Chiefs defense did pretty damn good I thought despite losing 3 key guys. I was surprised.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Historically 2 point conversions are less than 50%, so I think the odds favor going for one, even up 7…
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I don't remember much of that.
Please let's keep it 100% on the game and players and not the other posters. Thanks.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
If I had known you got pinched I would have organized an "I am Spartacus" moment where we all made fat jokes about Trump and dared them to suspend the whole forum.I haven’t been back since the week after the election. I joked the only way he’s getting to 270 is if he loses 50 pounds. Got 50 or 60 days off (I forget.) First time offender. #truestorybro
Unflicking real. Immodestly, I’m the least troublesome member here. Never, ever get into it with anyone. Don’t insult or belittle or call people names. Help people all the time in TSP and active in FFA threads. Two months for what is actually a pretty damn good joke?
Been a year, I should maybe think about letting it go eh.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
:laughing emoji like button:
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Nope. Analytically speaking, the decision to go for 2 in a situation like that is a wash and ultimately boils down to whether you have more faith in your offense's ability to score a two pointer or your defense's to stop one. I have seen an argument that, from a game-theory perspective, you should kick the XP for the same reason you should go for two if you're down 15 and score a TD: In both cases, going for two gives the trailing team more information to inform their decisions for the rest of the game, so if you're winning, you don't want to give them that info. In other words, if you convert the 2PC and are up nine, your opponent knows they need two scores. But if you kick and go up 8, you put them in that liminal state where they're not really sure if it's a one- or two-score game.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
But of course XPs are not 100% either. I think the percentages since the XP was moved back are something like 47/94, so basically a wash
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Nugget
Footballguy
drummer
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The problem with analytics is it takes a snapshot and cross section for all teams and all circumstances.
If NE played the Chiefs last night, Bill would have taken all the FGs because he trusts his defense and NE has been able to move the ball. They don’t have a high red zone percentage but they have been scoring points on a high percentage of drives.
The Pats are built to play from ahead. The Chiefs were giving up chunk plays on the ground. IMO, NE would probably have only gotten into the end zone 3 times instead of 4 times but would have kicked 4 FG. That would have given them 33 points. And I don’t think they would have ended up in a track meet with the Chiefs. KC probably would not have been in position to get a game tying last drive score.
So for a team like NE, taking the points is probably a better option. A team with an offense that can’t keep up with KC or with a soft defense would be better off trying to max out their point total to stay in the game.
If NE played the Chiefs last night, Bill would have taken all the FGs because he trusts his defense and NE has been able to move the ball. They don’t have a high red zone percentage but they have been scoring points on a high percentage of drives.
The Pats are built to play from ahead. The Chiefs were giving up chunk plays on the ground. IMO, NE would probably have only gotten into the end zone 3 times instead of 4 times but would have kicked 4 FG. That would have given them 33 points. And I don’t think they would have ended up in a track meet with the Chiefs. KC probably would not have been in position to get a game tying last drive score.
So for a team like NE, taking the points is probably a better option. A team with an offense that can’t keep up with KC or with a soft defense would be better off trying to max out their point total to stay in the game.
Dizzy
Footballguy
This is exactly what happened to the "I fart in your general direction" emoji IIRC.
Dark times.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
That may be true but I think the Chiefs would be at 70-80% on 2 point conversions if they went for it every time. I knew they were going to convert 2 after the TD.
All Chiefs have to do is have Mahomes get out of the pocket. Defenses can`t cover Hill and Kelce let alone the other guys when Mahomes is outside the pocket. Mahomes had 3 guys open on that 2 pointer and that is not counting he probably could have ran it in if needed.
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fatness
Footballguy
Update: Tight End Donald Parham Jr. stayed overnight at UCLA Harbor Medical Center for observation after being diagnosed with a concussion. He is resting comfortably, alert and will likely be discharged from the hospital later today.
https://twitter.com/chargers/status/1471901271896453122
https://twitter.com/chargers/status/1471901271896453122
needanap
Footballguy
I agree with you on this. 4 times he thought he could get in the end zone with one play to do it. Now, the fifth time he does not when it could most likely be a knock out blow? If they miss, KC most likely kicks to tie. I don't buy the argument that KC would know it is a two score game earlier -- KC would have only had 2:20 for two scores. They'd need a TD and an onside kick.Ghost Rider said:
This is my thought in the context of how LAC had gone about things all game (and all season).
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
This is essentially what I posted during the game. Using an analytics grid printed on some laminated card... might as well be carrying around a copy of "Coaching for Dummies."
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