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Way to early to put on the wire (12 team leagues)
I thought so too, that is why I am so surprised to see his name appear really at all but it is.
It's madness for Moreno to hit the waiver wire in a dynasty league. There are only so many RBs that have top 10 upside, and Moreno's one of them (admittedly, the probability of him achieving that upside seems to shrink by the week). Even in a redraft league, he's a RB3/4 going forward, with upside. I guess I can see him hit the WW in a shallow league (like a Yahoo public league, 10 teams, 15 man rosters) but in even moderately deep leagues I think he still needs to be rostered. This type of post does make me think it may be time to buy and take a flyer on him if the price is right...
not sure if serious
He's serious. And I don't think he's wrong (in PPR).
Not to call you out or anything, but I think this is a very different situation. Moreno has never been lower than 2nd on the depth chart (if he was ever even technically that low) Injury (after injury...) has been what has held him back. Brown is currently 3rd on Indy's depth chart - behind a rookie. I agree with your general thought - good pedigree can sometimes still rise up. But when the same team that "gave" you that draft pedigree (drafted you early), starts moving you down their depth chart, it may be time to look elsewhere. The other guys you mention were all #1 or #2 backs - with injuries.
Not at all. How about a guy that had a total of three 100 yard games (rushing) in his first 64 games? You know who that guy is? Brian Westbrook. Now Westbrook had a better all around game of combined yardage but its worth mentioning because Moreno has that kind of game in FF. A lot like Westbrook, the early years have frustrated the fantasy owners with inconsistencies but so did Westbrook. People seem to forget that Westy really took about 5 years to really get into a groove but everyone remembers how dominant he was for a few years.
Because he's a running back in the NFL? I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Lots of NFL players have trouble with their hamstrings.
That's a pretty useless stat ... if a RB carries 15 times per game and avg 6 yds a carry or has 20 carries @ 4.9 per he won't have 100 yds By the way Knowshon had 2 in 13 starts last year and only has about 24 starts for his career
I'm not saying that I agree with your take on his potential but even if we assume you are correct, is he in a situation now that gives you reason to believe he could become a Westbrook type of back? I don't think Williams and Stewart ever had 50 catches combined under John Fox. While you can make a case that in the right system Moreno could develop as a PPR RB, I don't think this is the right system.Edit: Stewart had 34 catches in 3 seasons under Fox, he has 10 catches in 2 games since he left.
Actuallly I agree with you. My hope for Brown is that this demotion means IND will release him soon and he'll go somewhere else, maybe with a Benson-like resurgence. But I think it's pretty obvious the pass first philosophy of IND hurt Brown considering his weakness as a pass-blocker. Such a horrible pairing, I was convinced he was going to get drafted by a run first team like the Giants. I don't know if pass blocking was his only problem in Indy. Maybe the complexity of the scheme, his work ethic, Manning's trust...could be so many things we'll never know. But either way I just don't think it was an ideal situation for him. He was known as a workhorse in college and he wasn't exactly getting workhorse type of carries in Indy. But he flashed briefly enough to warrant a roster spot in my deep roster dynasties.
Serious as a DEA agent at Jerome Simpson's house.In most cases, I'm inclined to agree with sspunisher. 1st round "bust" RBs break out often enough later on that they still retain value until they've proven that it won't happen. In Moreno's case, this biggest possible piece of proof would come in the form of not being able to beat out McGahee for a majority of touches. Although even then, if Moreno went somewhere else, I still would have a hard time not being interested in him. At least, in the same way I'm still interested in Donald Brown (I have him as RB57). If Moreno fails to outperform McGahee this year, then he's likely in for a fall into the Donald Brown range. But even then, he's still worth a roster spot in most dynasty leagues.
I don't think he is WW material but I don't think he has top 10 RB potential either.'jek187 said:
He could always end up on the Texans.
He is on the WW in my dynasty league but we only roster 40 RB's total. Do I think he is in the top 40 RB's, yeah I guess, but he is unstartable at the moment.
The difference between "unstartable" and "unrosterable" in dynasty leagues (even ones with smallish benches) is huge. In a dynasty league I'm in (10 teamer) we have 21 roster slots (8 startes - no defenses). He is rostered and will not be cut. In that league I have guys like Demaryius Thomas and Jake Locker on my roster - guys that are obviously not startable. I can see him hitting the WW in redraft leagues, especially as you have injuries and opportunities start opening for buys like B. Scott or Delone Carter or even Tate or whomever in KC, but Moreno has proven to be s decent RB2 when healthy. He's certainly worthy of keeping on a roster to see if he can come back and put decent numbers - or in dynatsy where he ends up next year, if not in Denver.
Moreno averaged 2.8 ypc in week 1. Does that mean he "sucks more" than McGahee?
Hillis week 1 versus Cincy was 17 for 57, 3.35 per carry. Does he suck, too? I thought McGahee looked decent against a Bengals run defense that isn't getting enough credit.
I don't disagree with what you are saying but the amount of roster-ed RB's in your particular league would come into play in this discussion. Is Moreno a top 40 back, probably; is he a top 60 back, definitely. I guess the question is how long do you wait on a stable Moreno? If Moreno is always down towards the bottom of a RB-3, and is unplayable, is it really that tough to speculate on someone else, using your roster slot there, that has the same relative upside without the history of only marginal success? Last year he was the 19th overall RB in my league - solid RB-2 tier - this year he is 66th and injured with his place on the depth chart in question. Tell me why he is such a good gamble as a work in progress over the likes of Carter, Redman, Spiller, J. Rodgers, or M. Bush; or (for this season) McCluster, Jacobs, or Caddy. You would agree that Moreno is no one's RB-1 or RB-2, so if he is a project, what has he shown so far that makes him a hold. I am sure that Moreno is a buy low in most leagues but there is easily comparable value to be had. FWIW, I am tempted to cut either P. Thomas or R. Bush to make room for him, as neither will see much playing time for me unless their situation changes, but I will wait to see how they do this week; if I miss out on Moreno I don't think it is that big of a loss; agree?
IMHO, Moreno has (as you pointed out) solid RB2 upside - some have suggested (not that I agree with this) - that he could outperform last year's numbers as many think Buckhlater > McGahee. So Moreno, IF HE IS HEALHTY (which is a big if again now) can likely be pencilled in around the same place as last season - or at least that could have been presumed coming into the year and seeing the distrubution in week 1 (66%/33% rushes in favor of Moreno). That's the type of production you'e be hoping for with many of the others mentioned - and most would need an injury ahead of them to put up RB2 numbers (save for maybe Jacobs, R. Bush (if used correctly), and D. Carter if he gets goal line work).I don't know that I'd call it a "big loss" - just that if Moreno can get healthy (as hew was at times last year and part of his rookie season) he is a safer bet to put up thos type of numbers. The risk of his health, is of course, the reason he is not automatically the safer bet, though.
Sample size. Moreno had like 8 carries week 1. McGahee has had over 1000 carries in his career and has always had one of the worst YPC of any RB with that many carries.Moreno will likely never be a bell cow, but he will be much more effective then a never has been McGahee for the 10-15 carries/3-5 receptions a game he gets.Bottom line is that Moreno shouldn't be getting dropped in any decent sized league, especially in a dynasty league. He's 24 years old and has put up decent FF stats when he plays.
I agree that Moreno shouldn't be getting dropped just yet, but I think it's dangerous to take the "puts up decent FF stats when he plays." Lots of okay guys can do that, but if they're not good actual NFL players they get replaced fairly quickly. It's getting to the point that Moreno seems to be in danger of this; whether McGahee capitalizes on it or not is another thing, but if Moreno isn't very good, he won't see the field, and won't get any FF points.
This thread like the Charles thread has to do with small roster-limited move leagues, there are more than just a handful of them you know. If all the leagues allow you to carry 6-8 RB's, then of course he is a hold but this is not the case. When I started this thread it had to do with what to do with a young "star" that isn't materializing. Moreno as you point out is really a never was, or at least had very little high level success. McGahee has value but it isn't that much of difference than Moreno's and I think Moreno offers at least a dynasty upside. I would love to hear some more of your analysis with maybe less criticism of the thread questions.
Compared to what? Tier Moreno for me, or at least give me a ranking of where you think he ends up. D. Will has value too, and so does R. Bush, but most owners are moving these guys out.
If you think one game has that much relevance to dynasty value, maybe someone should tell you how a dynasty league works.
yeah. We need to remember the long haul. I can't imagine McGahee can continue to produce all year. At some point it will come back to Moreno and, even if he is average, he is worth something to someone in a dynasty. Probably not different than people with Lynch or Greene on their rosters right now.Moreno is too young to let go still. Is this really any different than where Hillis was two years ago (literally)? Even if he is a total non factor this year, all it would take is a change of team to get people renewing optimism. Let's say by the end of the year the Falcons have gotten all they can from Turner and they bring in Morneo. Instant value. Lots of things can happen.'AB in DC said:
Because he is 24 and has already had decent success in the NFL
But my hate for John Fox continues. He's Shanahan part 2.
