Pipes
Footballguy
You shouldn't be in the minorityDr. Dan said:I guess that's where we differ, and I understand I'm in a minority
You shouldn't be in the minorityDr. Dan said:I guess that's where we differ, and I understand I'm in a minority
Consensus is that it's so close it's basically 50/50. Some have a strong view one way or the other. Other's will follow what someone else said, and get burned by it.grateful zed said:so, what's the consensus?
Yes, they are. PFF had an interesting article yesterday about all the receivers, but I think it's behind a paywall. Generally Jeudy ran routes all over the field, Lamb ran them from the left side of the alignment of the offense. Those were two things that jumped out at me. Today, they're doing Jeudy vs. Lamb behind the wall.How do we view the level of competition both Jeudy and Lamb played against? Aren’t SEC defenses way better?
Due to some of the schemes and defenses in PAC 12 and BIG 12 is anyone else worried about Lamb because of Corey Coleman?Yes, they are. PFF had an interesting article yesterday about all the receivers, but I think it's behind a paywall. Generally Jeudy ran routes all over the field, Lamb ran them from the left side of the alignment of the offense. Those were two things that jumped out at me. Today, they're doing Jeudy vs. Lamb behind the wall.
who? There's 4 players I like over both Lamb and Jeudy as well.c) other
I only have 1. Maybe 2 once I dig in more.who? There's 4 players I like over both Lamb and Jeudy as well.c) other
I don't really see the comparison. I wouldn't hold a conference, especially when its still a major conference, against a guy. Oklahoma plays plenty of good teams, and has had plenty of WR's find success in the NFL in recent years, including Hollywood Brown, Dede Westbrook, and Sterling Shepard, and Lamb is a better(probably much better) prospect than any of them were.Due to some of the schemes and defenses in PAC 12 and BIG 12 is anyone else worried about Lamb because of Corey Coleman?
There is another factor, a factor which leads IMO to a high bust rate and is almost impossible for those of us on the outside to ever factor into the equation and that is simply work ethic. Not all young 20 year olds respond the same when you give them $10+M guaranteed. Some want more, some lose drive and motivation. I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1? Probably not, and if so small, but first round WR's get a nice 4 year guaranteed contract and team controls them for year 5 while the second round guy gets paid usually barely over $1M a year if that and knows in year 5 he's an UFA.Full disclosure, I was a fan of Coleman's coming out. I think he fell into a triple whammy of being drafted by the worst HC in the NFL, on a team without a decent QB, and then immediately breaking his hand, and then re-breaking it again. Don't get me wrong, he was a bust, but he had an inordinate amount of bad luck in there too.
True, you can't measure heart.There is another factor, a factor which leads IMO to a high bust rate and is almost impossible for those of us on the outside to ever factor into the equation and that is simply work ethic. Not all young 20 year olds respond the same when you give them $10+M guaranteed. Some want more, some lose drive and motivation. I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1? Probably not, and if so small, but first round WR's get a nice 4 year guaranteed contract and team controls them for year 5 while the second round guy gets paid usually barely over $1M a year if that and knows in year 5 he's an UFA.
Sorry to get off Juedy vs Lamb topic.
One big positive in Tee’s favor compared to White is his age. White was a 22 year old senior when he finally became a difference maker in college. Tee was a star at age 19 in his sophomore season.Jeudy's route running, looking at PFF's article yesterday behind the paywall, was sick. One move was breathtaking.
I'm definitely in a Jeduy over Lamb camp. Whether that means I like him better than Sehnault, Reagor, or Higgins?
God, I can't help shake Higgins's hands, contested catches, high points, and aDOT in college. But he may be another Kevin White, which scares me.
Anyone run numbers on those two and say I'm missing that comparison badly?
Ah, I see that. I see where you can get Higgins's breakout age, how about White?One big positive in Tee’s favor compared to White is his age. White was a 22 year old senior when he finally became a difference maker in college. Tee was a star at age 19 in his sophomore season.
Playerprofiler has it at 21.Ah, I see that. I see where you can get Higgins's breakout age, how about White?
I agree with everything you said except Higgins. He’s the real deal, he is talented and very well could possibly have a better NFL and fantasy career.Jeudy's route running, looking at PFF's article yesterday behind the paywall, was sick. One move was breathtaking.
I'm definitely in a Jeduy over Lamb camp. Whether that means I like him better than Sehnault, Reagor, or Higgins?
God, I can't help shake Higgins's hands, contested catches, high points, and aDOT in college. But he may be another Kevin White, which scares me.
Anyone run numbers on those two and say I'm missing that comparison badly?
Oh, I love Higgins. I don't want to talk too much about personal draft or trade strategy, but combine-pending, it might involve him.I agree with everything you said except Higgins. He’s the real deal, he is talented and very well could possibly have a better NFL and fantasy career.
Tex
Ummm actually you can. One problem is that it tends to vary over time depending on situation.True, you can't measure heart.
He didn't look very good in the championship game, but that's just one game.Oh, I love Higgins. I don't want to talk too much about personal draft or trade strategy, but combine-pending, it might involve him.
Unfortunately, for me, that is what sticks out the most about him. Like you said, he just didn’t look like anything of note in that game.He didn't look very good in the championship game, but that's just one game.
Yes, he got dinged, but when he returned he had some drops and didn't look good at all. Not sure if injury was causing it or not.Didn't Higgings get dinged up early-ish in the Championship game?
This doesn't seem right considering I can find quotes of articles by pff saying that Lamb ran a very diverse route tree.Yes, they are. PFF had an interesting article yesterday about all the receivers, but I think it's behind a paywall. Generally Jeudy ran routes all over the field, Lamb ran them from the left side of the alignment of the offense. Those were two things that jumped out at me. Today, they're doing Jeudy vs. Lamb behind the wall.
If all of this was was from the left side of the formation how hard could it be to run the same set of diverse routes from the other side of the field?According to Pro Football Focus, Lamb's 62 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019 were very diverse. He ran just about every route on the tree and had only five dropped balls. Of his receiving yards, 401 came on deep balls, and 311 yards came from the slot.
It was a heat graph of all targets and routes run, IIRC. I'm at dinner. I'll find the link for Edge Subscribers.This doesn't seem right considering I can find quotes of articles by pff saying that Lamb ran a very diverse route tree.
If all of this was was from the left side of the formation how hard could it be to run the same set of diverse routes from the other side of the field?
What was the time frame that they were talking about in the article you read? Was it just part of the 2019 season? All of 2019? All of Lambs career?
It would not surprise me if the author may have bent the data to meet that narrative.
I don't believe it.
I think there is something to this.There is another factor, a factor which leads IMO to a high bust rate and is almost impossible for those of us on the outside to ever factor into the equation and that is simply work ethic. Not all young 20 year olds respond the same when you give them $10+M guaranteed. Some want more, some lose drive and motivation. I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1? Probably not, and if so small, but first round WR's get a nice 4 year guaranteed contract and team controls them for year 5 while the second round guy gets paid usually barely over $1M a year if that and knows in year 5 he's an UFA.
Sorry to get off Juedy vs Lamb topic.
Ceedee Lamb, OklahomaLook at this highlight reel. Over half of the big plays in the first two minutes are on the right side of the field.
My guess is whoever said that is trying to tank Lambs value or they are just really wrong, which is sad when they have access to so much information.
The combine will be pretty important for him given how strong this WR class is. If he comes in light and runs slow, he could get jumped by a couple WRs IMO.I don't know Lamb's true measurements. I've seen both 6'2" and 6'2.5", and weights from 189 to 195. When you see him play, he doesn't look like a beanpole. Let's see how he measures up at the combine.
Yep- on the field, he was the best WR I saw last year but if he 6'2" 195 and runs a 4.58, I will be concerned.Yes, me too. I'm looking for 200 from Lamb.
Right now Lamb is a contender for my wr1, but I have some significant questions that the combine will answer. Then the draft may matter some
How many? And what are the qualifications on this statement?I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1?
I don't have time to compile a long list right now but here is a list of all the WR draftedHow many?
Unfortunately, Kupp was a 3rd round pick (along with Godwin and Golladay!).2017 JuJu and Kupp were the best from that class and they were later picks at the position.
Saying a lot of WR's drafted in round two have been outperforming WR's drafted in round one, certainly more WR's I'd term as having success in their careers.How many? And what are the qualifications on this statement?
Are you saying that Round 2 WRs frequently outperform the guy who was drafted at WR1, or that they frequently outperform some of the guys drafted in the 1st round?
For the sake of argument, I'm marking the entire 2019 class as Incomplete, but I am not disagreeing with your analysis. I just think it's too early to make the call. But from where I stand, the 2019 2nd round is what makes or breaks your entire argument. 2015-2018 1st and 2nd round WRs are listed below, and they look pretty close. More WRs were taken in the 1st round, with spectacularly poor results, but there have really only been more hits in the 2nd round on a per capita basis.So we got 3-4 what I'd term successful WR's drafted in round 1, only two of which have even hit 1,000+ yards on their rookie contracts. Won't include Perrriman either should he break out for someone next year. Out of these 5 years that includes 17 WR's drafted in round one.
In that same time span we've had 22 WR's drafted in round 2 so we got a slightly bigger group to work with.
From that group I'd label these as successful picks: Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu, Sutton, Chark, Deebo, AJ Brown and Metcalf. I think those are without a doubt successful WR's. Using the same Marquise Brown thought process of would the team that drafted the player still feel confident in the pick I think you could stretch this out to include Sterling Shepard and Christian Kirk.
Ok and yes we'll safely agree to disagree.For the sake of argument, I'm marking the entire 2019 class as Incomplete, but I am not disagreeing with your analysis. I just think it's too early to make the call. But from where I stand, the 2019 2nd round is what makes or breaks your entire argument. 2015-2018 1st and 2nd round WRs are listed below, and they look pretty close. More WRs were taken in the 1st round, with spectacularly poor results, but there have really only been more hits in the 2nd round on a per capita basis.
1st Round
HIT - 4 Amari Cooper
HIT - 7 Mike Williams
HIT - 24 DJ Moore, 26 Calvin Ridley
MISS - 7 Kevin White, 14 DeVante Parker, 20 Nelson Agholor, 26 Breshad Perriman, 29 Phillip Dorsett
MISS - 15 Corey Coleman, 21 Will Fuller, 22 Josh Doctson 23 Laquon Treadwell
MISS - 5 Corey Davis, 9 John Ross
2nd Round
HIT - 47 Michael Thomas
HIT - 62 Juju
HIT - 40 Courtland Sutton, 61 DJ Chark
MISS - 40 Dorial Green-Beckham, 41 Devin Funchess
MISS - 40 Sterling Shepard
MISS - 37 Zay Jones, 40 Curtis Samuel
MISS - 44 Dante Pettis, 47 Christian Kirk, 51 Anthony Miller, 60 James Washington
What meno was talking about was just 1st vs 2nd round picks thats true.tangfoot said:Unfortunately, Kupp was a 3rd round pick (along with Godwin and Golladay!).
I think this is largely due to teams drafting combine studs who aren't actually good in the first round pretty often. Maybe not good is a stretch but I'm thinking of the deep threat types who go earlier than they should.47.1% of wrs drafted in the 1st round had at least 1 top 24 season (since 2010)
40.5% of wrs drafted in the 2nd round had at least 1 top 24 season (since 2010)
I agree with doing this exercise by removing those reaches. The one I think of is Dorsett. As a Colt fan this came out of nowhere and feel he was overdrafted. I think the issue would be that doing this exercise would assume the fantasy community knows better than NFL teams.I think this is largely due to teams drafting combine studs who aren't actually good in the first round pretty often. Maybe not good is a stretch but I'm thinking of the deep threat types who go earlier than they should.
I wonder how these numbers look if you remove "dumb reach by a dumb team" types from the equation? That's pretty subjective, but it seems pretty frequent that teams are drafting the wrong WRs in round one. Look no further than 2019.
Yeah its subjective, but I think there are quite a few of these that many viewed as a dumb pick even at the time.I agree with doing this exercise by removing those reaches. The one I think of is Dorsett. As a Colt fan this came out of nowhere and feel he was overdrafted. I think the issue would be that doing this exercise would assume the fantasy community knows better than NFL teams.
I think this is a good thought process and something to be aware of. More and more I have started to consider the source (organization who is drafting the player) and made that a factor in my decision. There is no real way to quantify it but the “Al Davis” method of drafting has to be a factor. Although the Skins did outsmart me with their McLaurin pick as I was not real high on him.Yeah its subjective, but I think there are quite a few of these that many viewed as a dumb pick even at the time.
Corey Coleman and John Ross are up there for sure. Dumbest of the dumb dumb franchises reaching. Dorsett was drafted by a failure idiot GM also. Most likely the community does know a lot better than those franchises in those years.
Another factor is that is getting drafted by one of these terrible teams a heavy influence in the success of the prospect? I think it does to some degree. Hard to know though.
It's pre combine still but this year's candidate for this is KJ Hamler. Decent prospect, but we know he's a speed guy who will likely have a great combine. If the Redskins or Jets draft him in the first round, do we put him ahead of prospects we like way more now but who will have lower than first round draft capital?
What is it about Ross and Coleman that made them obvious reaches (for the 1st round)?kittenmittens said:Yeah its subjective, but I think there are quite a few of these that many viewed as a dumb pick even at the time.
Corey Coleman and John Ross are up there for sure. Dumbest of the dumb dumb franchises reaching. Dorsett was drafted by a failure idiot GM also. Most likely the community does know a lot better than those franchises in those years.
Another factor is that is getting drafted by one of these terrible teams a heavy influence in the success of the prospect? I think it does to some degree. Hard to know though.
It's pre combine still but this year's candidate for this is KJ Hamler. Decent prospect, but we know he's a speed guy who will likely have a great combine. If the Redskins or Jets draft him in the first round, do we put him ahead of prospects we like way more now but who will have lower than first round draft capital?
This is exactly what I'm talking about. You're citing combine numbers to justify the picks, and I am saying that's exactly what I am avoiding. Players who were decent prospects who became top prospects after they had outstanding combines and then got over drafted by a bad team that makes bad decisions. I'm looking for more of that in the future, and avoiding it. I bet those same pundits are going to be gushing over Ruggs and Hamler now.What is it about Ross and Coleman that made them obvious reaches (for the 1st round)?
John Ross certainly was overdrafted going top 10 but blazing speed, 94th percentile breakout age, 65th percentile dominator, 1200/18 in his final season, special teams gamebreaker, Lance Zierlein from NFL. com called him an instant starter, comped him to Desean Jackson, SI had him as their 15th best prospect in the draft, PFF described as special.
Corey Coleman basically came up 90th percentile in every combine drill- his worst was the 40 where he ran 4.42, 90th percentile breakout age and 59th dominator, 2600/32 from scrimmage as a sophomore and junior, PFF said he was clearly a 1st round talent in any draft year, Bleacher Report comped him to Steve Smith and labled him as a day 1 starter, Lance Z had him as a 1st or 2nd round pick and one of the top playmakers in the draft.
Even Dorsett wasn't that crazy. The crazy part is that it was the Colts who seemed to have so many other needs and a redundant player in Hilton. Dorsett blazed at 4.33 and showed incredible agility in the combine drills, 60th percentile breakout age, 74th percentile dominator, Lance Z had him as a round 1 or 2 guy and quoted an NFL Exec who said he was a round 1 guy with elite speed and separation, Pete Prisco from CBS Sports gave the Colts an A for the pick saying it made the Colts offense unfair.
I think it's totally hindsight to call these guys obvious busts or clearly bad picks.