Family Matters
Footballguy
When I referred to a situation similar to Gates, that was not intended as a comparison of the players as much as how it might be negotiated. I can see similarities but you make good points defining their differences.KC has the upper hand and they will decide his fate. If they decide they son't want pay him the money then they can always trade him and LJ has no say in it. I'm sure he and his agent recognize this but that doesn't mean they won't try to force KC's hand.Disagree strongly in both regards.LJ has never made it sound like Kansas City the city or the franchise is his long-term choice as a place to play. Hasn't he publicly said he didn't fit into the community in the past? If LJ sat the first half of the season he'd still have plenty of takers once he hits the market while KC would pretty much lose an entire season if LJ chose to sit. KC has more to lose in this situation. KC is more likely to bend imo.What this is about is how much KC is willing to pay. It's as simple as that. They will have to decide if they are willing to pay fair market money to LJ. If not and if he insists on fair market then this will get ugly. There could be some compromise that makes them both happy but we'll have to see if that exists. My guess is LJ will have to make more concessions than KC.
Remember the Gates deal? SD played hardball wile Gates wanted to paid like a top TE? Well Gates got top TE guarenteed money but he had to compromise by doing a longer term which is what SD wanted. I can see something similar happening here only with bigger money involved due to the higher cap dollars.
The Gates deal was different for several reasons;
- part of the higher $ will be due to higher cap dollars as you mention but a much bigger difference is the fact LJ is a franchise RB. If he wants to be paid in the same ballpark as other franchise RB's(LT in particular) that's a huge departure from top TE $. A much bigger financial commitment especially with regard to signing bonus.
- at the time of the Gates negotiation he had only one great year on his resume(and hadn't broken 1000 yards) compared to LJ's two years of domination. LJ's earned his $ more than Gates had at the time of his negotiation.
- Gates was 25yo so SD was definitely interested in a long-term six year deal. Is it realistic to assume Gates would be playing at a high level at the ripe old age of 31 in the waning years of his contract? I think so. More likely than LJ will still be earning his $ at the age of 34. KC will be required to give LJ a giant signing bonus but realistically only has 2-3 more years of LJ at his prime to spread that huge signing bonus out.
I'm very careful to avoid criticizing KC in this situation despite the fact LJ has earned his extension based on his play on the field. The team that LJ plays for next year is going to have to make a huge financial commitment for a guy that will be 29yo and will likely be declining in a year or two. IMO KC has already answered the question whether or not they are willing to pay what the market will be for LJ by not giving him his extension. The question is asked and answered.
As to KC asking and answering the question, I'm not so sure. They made an offer. They are low balling which is common at this point of the negotiations, which is exactly what SD did to Gates. It's what every club does. But they did make an offer and that says they want him but as to what price is the question. I'm just not so sure it's been answered yet. I am concerned that they won't want to pay fair market and I don't know that LJ is willing to move on his demands.
One last thought. As I remember things, KC wanted LJ real bad and drafted him in spite of their coaches (Vermeil) wishes against doing so. What, if anything, has changed that they no longer want him? If the love is still there then a deal has a good chance of getting done. If not then maybe they will part ways. But I really wonder where all the love is right now after the owners has passed and LJ is making demands. If anyone has any local info on this angle please speak up.